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Many Danger Signs Flashing Red

(An Emergency Alert Document)

by Stefan Pasti, Resource Coordinator Community Visioning Initiatives Clearinghouse Community Teaching and Learning Centers Clearinghouse (62 pages; November, 2012)

Special Title Page Notes: 1) There are two Table of Contents provided for this document. One is a shorter version (see p. 4), to provide a quick overview of the topics covered. The second, a longer version (see p. 5-8), adds quotations and excerpts which are representative of the articles, website material, etc highlighted in this document, to create a more detailed outline of the topics covered. The longer version Table of Contents can therefore serve as a kind of Executive Summary. 2) Thecompilation of excerpts style is used in this document because it highlights key sources, which readers can explore in more detailand because this writer believes that providing the observations and insights from key sources in their own words strengthens the Executive Summary provided in the longer Table of Contents.

Contact Information Stefan Pasti, Resource Coordinator Community Visioning Initiative Clearinghouse www.cviclearinghouse.net Community Teaching and Learning Center Clearinghouse www.ctlcclearinghouse.net P.O. Box 163 Leesburg, VA 20178 (USA) stefanpasti@ipcri.net (703) 209-2093

Introduction This Many Danger Signs Flashing Red document is an overview of the most critical references (to articles, websites, etc.) brought forward in the IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment 2011-2012: Summary Report (January, 2012; with updates August, 2012). This overview (a compilation of quotes, excerpts, etc.) is supplemented with a detailed Table of Contents, which can function as an Executive Summary. It needs to be emphasized here that this summary of challenges is this writers personal viewand as such would only be one of many such summaries which would result from the kind of preliminary survey advocated by this writer, as preparation for a Community Visioning Initiative. The conclusion which this writer encourages here is that he believes it is highly likelygiven this Many Dangers document as a starting pointthat there would be enough danger signs flashing red which local leaders would be willing to acknowledge to support going forward with a Community Visioning Initiative (as a way of encouraging maximum citizen participation in identifying challenges, and in solution-oriented activity). The companion document Key Organizations, Initiatives, and Insights is offered as an indication that we have the resources to overcome the challenges of our times. It would be demoralizing, from this writers point of view, if citizens were overwhelmed with information and analysis about critical challenges ahead without also providing sufficient evidence that we can overcome such challenges. Even more so, on the positive side, it can be very inspiring to accumulate information about the efforts of people and organizations who have already (for decades) been working on appropriate responses to the critical challenges of our times. This writer highly recommends that readers skim through the longer Table of Contents for the Key Organizations, Initiatives, and Insights document. This writer advocates for a combination of preliminary surveys to 150 local leaders (as preparation for Community Visioning Initiatives), time-intensive Community Visioning Initiatives supported by many Community Teaching and Learning Centers (offering workshops suggested by the preliminary surveys), and sister community relationships as a way of creating local community specific and regional specific constellations of initiatives responses to the challenges of our times. Community Visioning Initiatives (CVIs) can be described as a series of community meetings designed to facilitate the process of brainstorming ideas, organizing the ideas into goals, prioritizing the goals, and identifying doable steps. One of the main goals of Community Visioning Initiatives is to maximize citizen participation in identifying challenges, and in solution-oriented activity. Workshop curriculum contributed by (for example) Gaia Education, BALLE, Fairtrade, Oxfam, Doctors Without Borders, United Religions Initiative, Global Network for Women of Faith, Sister Cities International etc. can guide Socially Responsible and Sustainable Investing, and can lead to a careful and deliberate channeling of time, energy, and money in the marketplaceto support Community Visioning Initiatives, Community Teaching and Learning Centers, local currencies, Food Sovereignty, Ecovillages, and a just transition from dysfunctional systems which are very complex to functioning systems which are much less complex. The sharing of Community Visioning Initiative experiences and Community Teaching and Learning Center experiences through the clearinghouse websites would be a key (if we will use it) to making the most of learning experiences worldwideand such sharing would surely contribute much to transforming the many challenges ahead into inspiring experiences of collaboration, peacebuilding, and community revitalization. 2

Still, even with all this potential, this writer is aware that there may be people in the community who regardless of the difficulties and urgencies associated with resolving multiple criseschoose to focus their attention of trying to make money by preying of peoples fears, manipulating peoples trust, and/or encouraging people to abandon hope in higher aspirations, and indulge in unhealthy, or immoral behavior. Such behavior is clearly counterproductive to the building of caring communities; it can be very dangerous for community morale, and it can become a crippling obstacle in times of crises. By using a combination of preliminary surveys, Community Visioning Initiatives and Community Teaching and Learning Centers, there can be a signal to all participating that eventuallyeventually.the educational process will succeed, the danger signals flashing will be accepted as common knowledge, and the collaborative problem solving and citizen peacebuilding approach will be appreciated as a means of building skills necessary for cultural sustainability. As such positive realizations spreads, and time, energy, and money is re-directed away from people who are preying on peoples fears, manipulating peoples trust, and encouraging people to abandon hope in higher aspirations, those people will discover that they will have less and less resources supporting their misguided efforts until most of them too, realize how much we really do need to be on the same side, helping each other. It is because there is so much opportunity (through the use of Community Visioning Initiatives) for actually arriving at such positive realizations, that this writer advocates the idea of using .2% of public funds for military preparedness and military interventions to carry out 1000 Community Visioning Initiatives. This writer believesand hopes that soon many other people will share his beliefthat we can build peace and ecological sustainability through a careful and deliberate re-channeling of our time, energy, and money that we can do this through a combination of preliminary surveys, Community Visioning Initiatives, and Community Teaching and Learning Centers and the resulting accumulation of solution-oriented activity can be so inspiring that even the most profound challenges can be overcome. This writer believes we can learn to fill in the blank in the statement below: In the best of times, even the most profound challenges can be overcome; for in the best of times, ____________________ is/are nurtured, supported, and sustained by family, friends, teachers, mentors, elders, and the everyday influences of community life and cultural traditions. If many people could see and feel the practical value of carrying out similar forms of Community Visioning Initiatives, such collaborative, solution-oriented activity could become a common experience a common cultural tradition a cultural tradition which can link many diverse communities of people together, in a fellowship of people working towards the greater good of the whole and a cultural tradition which can help pass on to future generations the best ideas humans have accumulated in more than 5,000 years of human history.

Table of Contents
(short version)

A. Four Summaries of Critical Challenges Ahead. B. Global Warming and Reducing Carbon Emissions. C. Cultures of Violence, Greed, Corruption, and Overindulgence.. D. The End of the Era of Cheap Energy.. E. The increasing world population and its implications relating to widespread resource depletion.. F. Current trends indicate that we are creating more and more urban agglomerations G. The U.S. and many other countries will enter the next 15 to 20 years burdened by substantial public debt H. A marginalization of the treasured wisdom associated with religious, spiritual, and moral traditions.. I. Global inequities and the tragic cycles of malnutrition, disease, and death.

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Appendices
Appendix A About the Evidence in This Many Danger Signs Flashing Red Document Appendix B Introduction to the Clearinghouse Websites and the Four Key Documents (titled New Approach to Collaborative Problem Solving and Citizen Peacebuilding).. Appendix C The IPCR Initiative List of Ten Critical Challenges 55 56 62

Table of Contents
(longer version)

A. Four Summaries of Critical Challenges Ahead.


1) an urgent need to restructure our economic systems and our education systems to respond to these challenges... 2) All of these problems are quite real and, by now, well-documented. 3) only one poor harvest away from chaos. 4) Inconsistency in charting urban futures is to be expected given that forecasters are dealing with a confluence of unprecedented and very complex trends..

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B. Global Warming and Reducing Carbon Emissions.

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1) The situation today is, I could say, worse than ever. And I have at least three reasons why I believe so. 11 2) The Second Number: 565 Gigatons: Scientists estimate that humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere by midcentury and still have some reasonable hope of staying below two degrees.. The Third Number: 2,795 Gigatons: This number is the scariest of all (the) carbon already contained in the proven coal and oil and gas reserves of the fossil-fuel companiesthe fossil fuel were currently planning to burn. 12 3) Only a very small portion of the global public is aware that global coal consumption has advanced by over 50% in the past decade. 13 4) We can imagine that they can improve their standard of living without increasing their fossil fuel consumption, but what do we have to point to in order to show that it can be done?..14 5) If current trends continue, and we go on building high-carbon energy generation, then by 2015 at least 90% of the available carbon budget will be swallowed up by our energy and industrial infrastructure. 14 6) Another way Arctic warming could have worldwide consequences is through its influence on permafrost. Permanently frozen soils worldwide contain 1400-1700 Gigatons of carbon, about four times more than all the carbon emitted by human activity in modern times. 15 7) In this post, I will summarize what the recent scientific literature says are the key impacts we face in the coming decades if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path... 16

C. Cultures of Violence, Greed, Corruption, and Overindulgence


1) Worldwide Military Expenditures (2009)-- $1.531 trillion. 2) At least 1,134 companies in 98 countries worldwide are involved in some aspect of the production of small arms and/or ammunition. 3) Global Drugs Trade and Global Arms Trade no solutions seems to be in sight for these problems.. 4) Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: The Role of Investment Banks (Millions of Americans have lost their jobs, their homes and their businesses in the recession that the crisis sparked.) 5

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5) Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: The Role of Investment Banks (the jargon is complicated, the transactions are complicatedyouve relied on that complicated situation to avoid a lot of scrutiny. ).. 20 6) U.S. Government Debt, Liabilities, and Unfunded ObligationsCombining the figures above with the national debt and subtracting the value of federal assets, the federal government has $56.5 trillion ($56,529,800,000,000) in debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations as of September 30, 2010.. 21 7) global entertainment and media spending is expected to rise from $1.3 trillion to $1.7 trillion by 2014.. 22 8) Worldwide Advertising Expenditures (2009)-- $421 billion.. 22 9) The United States will lead the world in total advertising expenditures and online advertising expenditure. 23 10) The international market is saturated with American entertainment programming. 23 11) The United States currently has 5 percent of the worlds population, but uses 25 percent of the worlds annual energy production. This disproportionate consumption of energy relative to global consumption causes loss of the worlds good will.. 23 12) peoples confidence in state institutionsis likely to dwindle even moreif it is becoming obvious in crisis regions that governments have in the past failed to develop suitable solution strategies and provide orientation for society during this period of transition... 24

D. The End of the Era of Cheap Energy

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1) The human communitys central task for the coming decades must be the undoing of its dependence on oil, coal, and natural gas in order to deal with the twin crises of resource depletion and climate chaos.. 25 2) I think we should leave oil before it leaves us. That should be our motto. So we should prepare for that day - through research and development on alternatives to oil, on which living standards we want to keep and what alternative ways we can find... 26 3) Peak Oil and Climate Change present threats and imperatives of a scale unprecedented in human history. 26 4) To make America energy-independent is not something I think any government can achieve. But within 50 years thats what nature will deliver. 27 5) the likelihood that the vast sums of investment necessary to produce very costly oil and the likelihood that there will be customers willing to pay a high price to use itwill very likely diminish, and continue to diminish, as more and more people discover that it is possible to have high quality of life while using much less resources.. 27

E. The increasing world population and its implications relating to widespread resource depletion.

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1) World Population (estimate October 19, 2012) = 7,046,724,871 28 2) Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history.. 28 3) The unsettling infographic timeline was created to answer the daunting questionwhen can we expect our most valuable resources to run out?".. 29 6

4) Existing policies and market incentives have contributed to this problem of capital misallocation because they allow businesses to run up significant, largely unaccounted for, and unchecked social and environmental externalities..

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F. Current trends indicate that we are creating more and more urban agglomerations.
1) Twentieth century cities and industrial regions are dependent for survival and growth on a vast and increasingly global hinterland of ecologically productive landscapes.. 2) The 25 Largest Cities 3) The growing scarcity of water and the high energy cost of transporting it.. 4) London throws away 560,000 tonnes of food (per year) as waste. 5) Supermarkets, restaurants and other nonresidential establishments in Montgomery County throw away 96million pounds of food a year.. 6) Peak Oil, Bottlenecks in Supply of Existentially Important Goods, and Transformation Unemployment.. 7) As with aging highway infrastructure, however, the vast network of pipes built out during the boom years of the 20th century is now nearing the end of its life span.

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G. The U.S. and many other countries will enter the next 15 to 20 years burdened by substantial public debt.
1) Combining the figures above with the national debt and subtracting the value of federal assets, the federal government has $56.5 trillion ($56,529,800,000,000) in debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations as of September 30, 2010... 2) Ultimately, however, the WEO forecast rests on critical policy action in the euro area and the United States, and it is very difficult to estimate the probability that this action will materialize. 3) the world economy faces a perfect storm of risks. 4) In July, Spaniards withdrew a record 75 billion euros, or $94 billion, from their banks an amount equal to 7 percent of the countrys overall economic output as doubts grew about the durability of Spains financial system.. 5) If you dont believe the growth rate is going to be that great, then you have to ask yourself some very fundamental questions... 6) Some might assume that bond markets are shielded from the effects of climate change, ecosystem degradation, and water scarcity. With more than $40 trillion of sovereign debt in global markets at any given time, that is a very high-risk game.

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H. A marginalization of the treasured wisdom associated with religious, spiritual, and moral traditions.
1) The underlying assumption seemed to be that as research and rational reflection explained more and more of the world, religion would become and increasingly unnecessary part of human life. 7

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2) Unfortunately, the kind of economic growth which is most often being referred to includes a vast array of enterprises which require the continued exploitation of flaws and weaknesses in human nature, fragile ecosystems, and already significantly depleted natural resourcesand which are much of the reason why cultures of violence, greed, and corruption have become so common that most people believe they are inevitable. 3) And some of the challenges may be considered the result of a kind of spiritual sickness: people with clear opportunities for walking on a Great Road are instead greatly delighting in tortuous paths. 4) If many people can learn to find contentment and quality of life while consuming much less, this limiting of desires at the root will save much trouble trying to respond to the symptoms as they materialize worldwide. This is part of the spiritual teachings element which often gets overlooked. 5) And what is possible along the lines of wisdom and compassion?

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I. Global inequities and the tragic cycles of malnutrition, disease, and death..
1) The United States currently has 5 percent of the worlds population, but uses 25 percent of the worlds annual energy production... 2) The world is facing a hunger crisis unlike anything it has seen in more than 50 years.. 3) A striking feature of all these reports is the lack of recognition of the past, present and possible future role of local organisations in meeting fundamental human needs and sustaining the environment.. 4) Yet many of the local organisations that are central to poverty reduction and environmental sustainability are those that are formed and managed by low-income householdsfor instance subsistence farmer organisations, co-operatives of women food processors, savings and credit groups, and the federations formed by the rural and urban poor. 5) The exclusion of local organisations from shaping the future thus leads to a neglect of different ways of satisfying human needs. Many rural and urban development schemes have overlooked the importance of locally specific ways of meeting needs for food, health, shelter, energy, education and other fundamental human needs... 6) the sad fact is that very few if any of these land investments benefit local people or help to fight hunger. Two thirds of agricultural land deals by foreign investors are in countries with a serious hunger problem. Yet perversely, precious little of this land is being used to feed people in those countries... 7) With another big jump in grain prices, we could see a breakdown in the world food supply system. If countries give in to the temptation to restrict exports, some lower-income importing countries might not be able to import any grain at all. When could this happen? We are not talking about the distant future. It could be anytime.

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Appendices
Appendix A About the Evidence in This Many Danger Signs Flashing Red Document Appendix B Introduction to the Clearinghouse Websites and the Four Key Documents (titled New Approach to Collaborative Problem Solving and Citizen Peacebuilding).. Appendix C The IPCR Initiative List of Ten Critical Challenges 8 55 56 65

A. Four Summaries of Critical Challenges Ahead


1) an urgent need to restructure our economic systems and our education systems to respond to these challenges. From A Four Page Summary of The IPCR Initiative (at http://www.ipcri.net/A_Four_Page_Summary_of_The_IPCR_Initiative.pdf ) (see page 1)(confirmed October 14, 2012) We now live in very complex world. There are many difficult challenges ahead. These challenges include, but are not limited to: a) global warming and reducing carbon emissions b) peak oil and reducing dependence on petroleum based products c) global inequities and the tragic cycles of malnutrition, disease, and death d) an increasing world population requiring more resources when many resources are becoming more scarce (with a special emphasis on the increasing number of people who are consuming resources and ecological services indiscriminately) e) cultures of violence, greed, corruption, and overindulgencewhich have become so common that many of us accept such as inevitable; which are a significant part of the current crises of confidence in financial markets; and which are in many ways slowing the restructuring of investment priorities needed to respond to an increasing number of other critical challenges f) a marginalization of the wisdom associated with religious, spiritual, and moral traditions More and more people are coming to the realization that overcoming the challenges of our times will require problem solving on a scale most of us have never known beforeand that there is an urgent need to restructure our economic systems and our education systems to respond to these challenges. How can we get more on track with the problem solving we so urgently need to do? 2) All of these problems are quite real and, by now, well-documented. From the preamble to a 116 page Ecovillage Design Curriculum (Version 4) document (at http://www.gaiaeducation.org/docs/EV%20Design%20Curriculum.pdf ) (in Version 5 document, no accessible at http://gaiaeducation.net/index.php?optio....id=47&Itemid=62) the section Why is Gaia Education Necessary? is similar in many ways) (confirmed October 13, 2012) We live in a rapidly changing world that is transforming before our very eyes. Humanity is now being challenged as never before to grow in wisdom, maturity, and understanding. A plethora of deep and pressing concerns is calling for our immediate attention, concerns such as: Earth's environmental degradation, including the loss of precious topsoil and forest cover, the encroachment of deserts, thedepletion of fisheries and aquifers, the loss of habitat and the extinction of species, etc.; the glaring and increasing disparity between rich and poor leading to exploitation, poverty, and the associated regimen of malnutrition and over-population; the disintegration of families, communities, even entire cultures; unrestrained urbanization resulting in social alienation, displacement, and feelings of disconnection with the natural world; the dimming of a sense of spiritual awareness and purpose; global 9

warming and ozone depletion; etc. And now, looming on the horizon is peak oil, with its coming adjustments and retrofits, including the probability of ongoing conflict over access to the remaining energy reserves. All of these problems are quite real and, by now, well-documented; but gaining awareness of the extent of the problems is only half the project of becoming educated these days. Amidst these intense challenges, and largely catalyzed by them, lies the prospect for tremendous growth in human potential and consciousness. People and communities all over the globe are coming together to reclaim responsibility for creating their own living situations at local and regional levels. In the process, they are overcoming prior limitations and developing new talents, skills, knowledge and approaches. Paradoxically, many of the most innovative solutions rely on a timeless, perennial kind of wisdom that seems to have been disregarded recently. The potential for a refreshed, renewed, revitalized humanity goes hand-in-hand with meeting the challenges of our present Age. 3) only one poor harvest away from chaos. From World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse by Lester R. Brown Earth Policy Institute W.W. Norton and Company New York 2011 Accessible for free at the website of the Earth Policy Institute (see http://www.earth-policy.org/books/wote ) (Confirmed October 13, 2012) a) (from Press Release for World on the Edge, at http://www.earth-policy.org/books/wote/wotepr ) (Confirmed October 13, 2012) The new reality, says Brown, is that the world is only one poor harvest away from chaos. It is time to redefine security. The principal threats to our future are no longer armed aggression but instead climate change, population growth, water shortages, spreading hunger, and failing states. What we now need is a mobilization to reverse these trends on the scale and urgency of the U.S. mobilization for WorldWar II. The challenge is to quickly reduce carbon emissions, stabilize population, and restore the economys soils, aquifers, forests, and other natural support systems. This requires not only a redefining of security but a corresponding reallocation of fiscal resources from military budgets to budgets for climate stabilization, population stabilization, water conservation, and other new threats to security. b) From World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse by Lester R. Brown Earth Policy Institute (p. 13-14) Food price stability now depends on a record or near record world grain harvest every year. And climate change is not the only threat to food security. Spreading water shortages are also a huge, and perhaps even more imminent, threat to food security and political stability. Water-based food bubbles that artificially inflate grain production by depleting aquifers are starting to burst, and as they do, irrigation-based harvests are shrinking. The first food bubble to burst is in Saudi Arabia, where the depletion of its fossil aquifer is virtually eliminating its 3- million-ton wheat harvest. And there are at least another 17 countries with food bubbles based on overpumping.

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4) Inconsistency in charting urban futures is to be expected given that forecasters are dealing with a confluence of unprecedented and very complex trends. From article by Thomas N. Gladwin Ph.D [Professor at the University of Michigan (Ann Arbor) School of Natural Resources and Environment) titled Doomsday Alert: Megachallenges Confronting Urban Modernity!, in The Journal of the International Institute (at http://quod.lib.umich.edu/j/jii/4750978.0016.107?rgn=main;view=fulltext ) (confirmed October 13, 2012) The dawning of the urban millennium has been marked by a prodigious outpouring of projections and assessments of urban futures from international organizations such as UN-Habitat, UN Population Fund, World Bank, UN Environmental Programme, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Worldwatch Institute, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), International Energy Agency, and more. Table 1 provides a summary snapshot of long-term global projections of relevance to urban evolution recently provided by these organizations. When put together, the projections entail huge impossibilities. Can the worlds cities really massively grow their fossil fuel-based energy consumption in the wake of the end of cheap oil and during climate change? Can the future of urbanization really be concentrated in the worlds coastal zones growing increasingly vulnerable to extreme freshwater scarcity, storm surges, and sea-level rises induced by climate change? Can cities in low-income nations really double their urban populations with mainly very poor, old, and young people in the absence of vast increases in employment, income, and tax revenue? And can we really double or triple the physical size of the worlds cities while irreversibly liquidating the stocks of natural capital upon which such growth ultimately depends? Inconsistency in charting urban futures is to be expected given that forecasters are dealing with a confluence of unprecedented and very complex trendspopulation aging, urbanization of poverty, coastal ecosystem degradation, climate change, massive sprawl, decoupling of urbanization from industrialization and wealth creation, and so onwithout parallel in the history of humanity.

B. Global Warming, and reducing carbon emissions


1) The situation today is, I could say, worse than ever. And I have at least three reasons why I believe so. From June 12, 2012 article An Influential Voice Warns About Runaway Global Emissions by Fen Montaigne (at http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-06-12/influential-global-voice-warnsrunawayemissions ) (confirmed October 17, 2012) In an interview with Yale Environment 360 senior editor Fen Montaigne, Birol (Chief Economist for the International Energy Agency) discusses why the emissions situation is getting worse rather than better, why an overreliance on abundant natural gas reserves is a dangerous strategy, and why the global community must take action in the next several years if it hopes to avert temperature increases that could range as high as 6 degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit), way past the 2 degrees C increase that climate scientists say is a prudent upper limit. 11

(from first Q and A) Yale Environment 360: You have been a leading voice warning the world community that we are not doing nearly enough to rein in climate change. How would you assess the situation today? Fatih Birol: The situation today is, I could say, worse than ever. And I have at least three reasons why I believe so. One is I see the political momentum is not there. And climate change is sliding down in the agenda of many governments, including the governments that have been the champions of fighting against climate change and trying to put policies in place. The second reason why I think the situation is not bright at all is that carbon dioxide emissions are increasing each year; in 2011 we saw a 1-gigaton increase, which brings us very close to a lock-in of our energy system situation, and it will be almost impossible to reverse the trends after 2017 because our energy system power plants, the industry sector, the transportation sector will be locked into the capital investments in a way that they will use fossil fuel energies. And the third one is that at the end of last year at the United Nations COP meeting in Durban all countries in the world for the first time signed a protocol that they are going to take steps to limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius. This has been celebrated as a major step. It definitely has political significance, but it was not followed by concrete policy steps.When I look at the investment data, no energy investor changed its behavior as a result of the agreement. So the investments which would have implications for many years to come in terms of building power plants, industrial facilities, and others will be with us for many years to come. As a result of these three major reasons, I do not feel very optimistic that we will be able to reach the 2degree trajectory, but I will be extremely happy if I am wrong. 2) 2,795 Gigatons: This number is the scariest of all (the) carbon already contained in the proven coal and oil and gas reserves of the fossil-fuel companiesthe fossil fuel were currently planning to burn. From July 24, 2012 article McKibben Must Read: Global Warming Terrifying New Math by Joe Romm (at http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-07-24/mckibben-must-read-%E2%80%98globalwarming%E2%80%99s-terrifying-new-math%E2%80%99 ) (confirmed October 17, 2012) The three key numbers are: The First Number: 2 Celsius [3.6 Fahrenheit]: The temperature rise we need to work as hard as possible to limit total warming to if we want to have our best chance of averting multiple catastrophes and amplifying carbon cycle feedbacks The Second Number: 565 Gigatons: Scientists estimate that humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere by midcentury and still have some reasonable hope of staying below two degrees. (Reasonable, in this case, means four chances in five, or somewhat worse odds than playing Russian roulette with a six-shooter.) The Third Number: 2,795 Gigatons: This number is the scariest of all one that, for the first time, meshes the political and scientific dimensions of our dilemma. The number describes the amount of 12

carbon already contained in the proven coal and oil and gas reserves of the fossil-fuel companies, and the countries (think Venezuela or Kuwait) that act like fossil-fuel companies. In short, its the fossil fuel were currently planning to burn. 3) Only a very small portion of the global public is aware that global coal consumption has advanced by over 50% in the past decade. From June 29, 2012 article Coal: The Ignored Juggernaut by Gregor McDonald (see http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-06-29/coal-ignored-juggernaut ) (Confirmed October 19, 2012) (in section Global Coal Picture) as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has shifted its manufacturing to the developing world over the past few decades, coal has been the cheap energy source that has powered the rise of such manufacturing, especially in Asia. Accordingly, the extraordinary increase in global coal consumption the past decade is partly due to the OECD offshoring its own industrial production. How are most consumer goods made? Using electricity in developing world manufacturing centers, generated by coal. Only a very small portion of the global public is aware that global coal consumption has advanced by over 50% in the past decade. (from section Coal Hunger: Its Not Just China) 2008 saw the crossing of a major milestone in humanitys march towards industrialism, when, for the first time ever, more than 50% of the worlds population became urban. This great migration from the countryside to the cities, which is happening in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, is a primary driver for coal demand, as millions of new city dwellers take their place in the power grid. For those concerned with climate change, this is, of course, terrible news. However, many of the worlds international organizations, from the International Energy Agency in Paris to various OECD policy-making groups, remain very focused on making sure that developing world nations get access to electricity. There is a strong view and strong agreement among Western policy makers that working to ensure that the worlds poor have access to electricity is the most transformative action to pull humanity out of poverty. Surely this is why the World Bank has been investing heavily in coal-fired power production. (from section Rebounding into Coal) In Part II: Coal is the Fuel for a World in Decline, we explain that a series of ongoing financial crises only accelerates the transition to coal as the obvious energy source in a time a declining wealth. As the world gets poorer, with higher-income OECD economies set to converge with lower-income non-OECD economies, coal remains the cheapest form of globally traded BTUs, adding low-cost power to economies under pressure. Finally, using the just released data from the BP Statistical Review, we update the latest forecasts on the future crossover point, when coal regains its number one position from oil and once again becomes the primary energy source of the world.

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4) We can imagine that they can improve their standard of living without increasing their fossil fuel consumption, but what do we have to point to in order to show that it can be done? From a July 2, 2012 article titled Global Carbon Dioxide EmissionsFacts and Figures by Robert Rapier (at http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2012/07/02/global-carbon-dioxide-emissions-factsand-figures/ ) (from section Major Worldwide Growth in CO2 Emissions) (confirmed October 19, 2012) the growth rate in emissions over the past decade is faster than that of previous decades indicating carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated in recent years.. In fact, 2010's addition of 1.58 billion new tons globally is the largest annual increase on record. (in section Breakdown by Region) global coal consumption is the largest contributor to rising carbon dioxide emissions. Asia Pacific is the source of 45% of global carbon dioxide emissions, and is on a growth trajectory to reach 50% by the end of the decade. In the U.S., coal consumption is on the decline because new supplies of natural gas are displacing coal in power plants. The change has been so dramatic that since 2006, the U.S. is the world leader in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. as far as countries go, the U.S. has by far the highest cumulative emissions since 1965. China is in 2nd place at 133 billion tons, but no other country even breaks the 100 billion ton barrier. Globally, cumulative emissions since 1965 are 1.0 trillion tons, which should have increased (according to the calculation in the footnote) atmospheric carbon dioxide by 73 ppm. And if we cross-check the data from the Mauna Loa Observatory, we see that atmospheric carbon dioxide was about 320 ppm in 1965 and is just above 390 ppm in 2012. (from sections Per Capita Emissions and Conclusion) Developing countries seek the same modern conveniencesdishwashers, televisions, computers, and carsenjoyed by the developed world and which are currently powered mostly by fossil fuels. We can imagine that they can improve their standard of living without increasing their fossil fuel consumption, but what do we have to point to in order to show that it can be done?.... This is why I am extremely skeptical that carbon emissions will be reined in. 5) If current trends continue, and we go on building high-carbon energy generation, then by 2015 at least 90% of the available carbon budget will be swallowed up by our energy and industrial infrastructure. From article World Headed for Irreversible Climate Change by Fiona Harvey. Posted on November 11, 2011 (at http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-11/world-headed-irreversible-climate-change%E2%80%94-iea ) (confirmed October 19, 2012) The world is likely to build so many fossil-fuelled power stations, energy-guzzling factories and inefficient buildings in the next five years that it will become impossible to hold global warming to safe levels, and the last chance of combating dangerous climate change will be lost for ever, according to the most thorough analysis yet of world energy infrastructure. 14

Anything built from now on that produces carbon will do so for decades, and this lock-in effect will be the single factor most likely to produce irreversible climate change, the worlds foremost authority on energy economics has found. If this is not rapidly changed within the next five years, the results are likely to be disastrous. The door is closing, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA), said. I am very worried if we dont change direction now on how we use energy, we will end up beyond what scientists tell us is the minimum [for safety]. The door will be closed forever. If the world is to stay below 2C of warming, which scientists regard as the limit of safety, then emissions must be held to no more than 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; the level is currently around 390 ppm. But the worlds existing infrastructure is already producing 80% of that carbon budget, according to the IEAs analysis, published on Wednesday. This gives an ever-narrowing gap in which to reform the global economy on to a low-carbon footing. No room to move If current trends continue, and we go on building high-carbon energy generation, then by 2015 at least 90% of the available carbon budget will be swallowed up by our energy and industrial infrastructure. By 2017, there will be no room for manoeuvre at all the whole of the carbon budget will be spoken for, according to the IEAs calculations. Birols warning comes at a crucial moment in international negotiations on climate change, as governments gear up for the next fortnight of talks in Durban, South Africa, from late November. If we do not have an international agreement, whose effect is put in place by 2017, then the door to [holding temperatures to 2C of warming] will be closed forever, said Birol. 6) Another way Arctic warming could have worldwide consequences is through its influence on permafrost. Permanently frozen soils worldwide contain 1400-1700 Gigatons of carbon, about four times more than all the carbon emitted by human activity in modern times. From article Why the Arctic Sea Ice Death Spiral Matters by Neven Acropolis with Kevin McKinney Archived at Energy Bulletin August 31, 2012 (see http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-08-31/whyarctic-sea-ice-death-spiral-matters ) (paragraphs 7-8) (confirmed October 19, 2012) Another way Arctic warming could have worldwide consequences is through its influence on permafrost. Permanently frozen soils worldwide contain 1400-1700 Gigatons of carbon, about four times more than all the carbon emitted by human activity in modern times. A 2008 study found that a period of abrupt sea-ice loss could lead to rapid soil thaw, as far as 900 miles inland. Apart from widespread damage to infrastructure (roads, houses) in northern territories, resulting annual carbon emissions could eventually amount to 15-35 percent of todays yearly emissions from human activities, making the reduction of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere a much more difficult task. An even more worrying potential source of greenhouse gases is the methane in the seabed of the Arctic Ocean, notably off the coast of Siberia. These so-called clathrates contain an estimated 1400 Gigatons of methane, a more potent though shorter-lived greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. 15

Methane clathrate, a form of water ice that contains a large amount of methane within its crystal structure, remains stable under a combination of high pressure and low temperature. At a depth of 50 meters or less the East Siberian Arctic Shelf contains the shallowest methane clathrate deposits, and is thus most vulnerable to rising water temperatures. Current methane concentrations in the Arctic already average about 1.90 parts per million, the highest in 400,000 years. 7) In this post, I will summarize what the recent scientific literature says are the key impacts we face in the coming decades if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path. From article An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts by Joe Romm [archived at Energy Bulletin October 16,2012 (see http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-10-16/illustrated-guidescience-global-warming-impacts ); original article published at Climate Progress on October 14,2012 (see http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/14/1009121/science-of-global-warming-impacts-guide/ ) (paragraph 1 and last two paragraphs) (confirmed October 19, 2012) In this post, I will summarize what the recent scientific literature says are the key impacts we face in the coming decades if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path. These include:

Staggeringly high temperature rise, especially over land some 10F over much of the United States Permanent Dust Bowl conditions over the U.S. Southwest and many other regions around the globe that are heavily populated and/or heavily farmed. Sea level rise of some 1 foot by 2050, then 4 to 6 feet (or more) by 2100, rising some 6 to 12 inches (or more) each decade thereafter Massive species loss on land and sea perhaps 50% or more of all biodiversity. Unexpected impacts the fearsome unknown unknowns Much more extreme weather Food insecurity the increasing difficulty of feeding 7 billion, then 8 billion, and then 9 billion people in a world with an ever-worsening climate. Myriad direct health impacts

Remember, these will all be happening simultaneously and getting worse decade after decade. Equally tragic, a 2009 NOAA-led study found the worst impacts would be largely irreversible for 1000 years. Earlier this year, Climate Progress reported on what the top medical and health groups warn are the health risks Americans face from climate change:

More than doubled asthma rates and lengthened asthma season (already 20 days longer) Threatened access to clean drinking water Increases in airborne and insect borne illnesses (e.g. mosquitos, ticks, tapeworm) Increases in diarrheal, respiratory, and heart disease Increased risk of salmonella spread as average temperatures rise Increase in hospital use results in rising health care costs Particular risk among low-income communities, children, the elderly, and the obese

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See also The Lancets landmark Health Commission: Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century Conclusion The possibility that unrestricted emissions of greenhouse gases would not do unimaginable harm to humanity has become vanishingly small. Thats because:

We remain near the worst-case emissions pathways There is little prospect of major national or global action any times soon (thank you, deniers) Many impacts are coming faster than the models projected, and The overwhelming majority of the scientific literature in the past 5 years has been more dire than the 2007 IPCC report, which itself was more than enough motivation for the overwhelming majority of climate scientists and countries to call for urgent action to reduce emissions.

And I havent even discussed the many, many studies that suggest in fact carbon-cycle feedbacks (like the defrosting tundra) are almost all positive (amplifying) and yet largely ignored in most climate models:

NSIDC: Thawing permafrost feedback will turn Arctic from carbon sink to source in the 2020s, releasing 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100 and links therein. Nature: Climate Experts Warn Thawing Permafrost Could Cause 2.5 Times the Warming of Deforestation! Forest Feedback: Rising CO2 In Atmosphere Also Speeds Carbon Loss From Forest Soils, Research Finds For Peats Sake: Record Temperatures And Wildfires In Eastern Russia Drive Amplifying CarbonCycle Feedback Stunning Peatlands Amplifying Feedback: Drying Wetlands and Intensifying Wildfires Boost Carbon Release Ninefold Carbon Feedback From Thawing Permafrost Will Likely Add 0.4F 1.5F To Total Global Warming By 2100

So its no surprise that many climate impacts are coming much faster than the models had predicted.

C. Cultures of Violence, Greed, Corruption, and Overindulgence


1) Worldwide Military Expenditures (2009)-- $1.531 trillion a) From the SIPRI Yearbook 2010 section ofWikipedias List of countries by military expenditures (at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures ) (confirmed October 19, 2012) Worldwide Military Expenditures (2009)-- $1.531 trillion (Total Expenditures are in U.S. Dollars)

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b) From the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database section of Wikipedias List of countries by military expenditures (at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures ) (confirmed
October 19, 2012)

U.S. Military Expenditures (2009)Over $663 billion 2) At least 1,134 companies in 98 countries worldwide are involved in some aspect of the production of small arms and/or ammunition. From the Publications section of the Small Arms Survey website, in the subsection Small Arms Survey 2003, (in About the Small Arms Survey 2003, see Key Findings box) (at http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/A-Yearbook/2003/en/Small-Arms-Survey-2003About-1-Press-Release-EN.pdf ) (Confirmed October 19, 2012) There are at least 639 million firearms in the world today, of which 59% are legally held by citizens. At least 1,134 companies in 98 countries worldwide are involved in some aspect of the production of small arms and/or ammunition. 3) Global Drugs Trade and Global Arms Trade no solutions seems to be in sight for these problems. From the World Report on Violence and Health (World Health Organization Geneva 2002) in Chapter 9 The Way Forward: Recommendations for Action p. 254 (at http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/violence/world_report/en/full_en.pdf ) (confirmed October 19, 2012) The global drugs trade and the global arms trade are integral to violence in both developing and industrialized countries. Even modest progress on either front will contribute to reducing the amount and degree of violence suffered by millions of people. To date, howeverand despite their high profile in the world arenano solutions seem to be in sight for these problems. 4) Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: The Role of Investment Banks (Millions of Americans have lost their jobs, their homes and their businesses in the recession that the crisis sparked.) From an opening statement by Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich) [Chairman, Permanent Subcommitte on Investigations (Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs)] at the beginning of the fourth in its series of hearings on the causes and consequences of the financial crisis. The hearing was titled "Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: The Role of Investment Banks," and was held on Tuesday, April 27, 2010, at 10:00 a.m., in Room 106 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building. [Note: Statements by ranking members, the exhibits referenced in the statement and the other witness testimony are accessible at http://www.hsgac.senate.gov/subcommittees/investigations/hearings/-wall-street-andthe-financial-crisis-the-role-of-investment-banks ) An archive webcast of the hearing is also accessible at that link.] Webcast also accessible from www.cspan.org Program title: Investment Banks and the

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Financial Crisis, Directors April 27, 2011 (at http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/293196-1 ) (In that webcast, the portion of Sen. Levins comments which are included below are from :40 to 8:00) (confirmed October 19, 2012) The Chairman of the Subcommittee, Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich, began his opening statement as follows: Today the Subcommittee holds the fourth in our series of hearings to explore some of the causes and consequences of the financial crisis. These hearings are the culmination of nearly a year and a half of investigation. The freezing of financial markets and collapse of financial institutions that sparked our investigation are not just a matter of numbers on a balance sheet. Millions of Americans have lost their jobs, their homes and their businesses in the recession that the crisis sparked, the worst economic decline since the Great Depression. Behind every number we cite are American families who are still suffering the effects of a man-made economic catastrophe. Our Subcommittee's goal is to construct a record of the facts in order to deepen public understanding of what went wrong; to inform the ongoing legislative debate about the need for financial reform; and to provide a foundation for building better defenses to protect Main Street from the excesses of Wall Street. Our first hearing dealt with the impact of high-risk mortgage lending, and focused on a case study of Washington Mutual Bank, known as WaMu, a thrift whose leaders embarked on a reckless strategy to pursue higher profits by emphasizing high-risk exotic loans. WaMu didn't just make loans that were likely to fail, creating hardship for borrowers and risk for the bank. It also built a conveyor belt that fed those toxic loans into the financial system like a polluter dumping poison into a river. The poison came packaged in mortgage-backed securities that WaMu sold to get the enormous risk of these loans and their growing default rates off its own books, dumping that risk into the financial system. Our second hearing examined how federal regulators saw what was going on, but failed to rein in WaMu's reckless behavior. Regulation by the Office of Thrift Supervision that should have been conducted at arm's length was instead done arm in arm with WaMu. OTS failed to act on major shortcomings it observed, and it thwarted other agencies from stepping in. Our third hearing dealt with credit rating agencies, specifically case studies of Standard & Poor's and Moody's, the nation's two largest credit raters. While WaMu and other lenders dumped their bad loans into the river of commerce and regulators failed to stop their behavior, the credit rating agencies assured everyone that the poisoned water was safe to drink, slapping AAA ratings on bottles of high risk financial products. The credit rating agencies operate with an inherent conflict of interest - their revenue comes from the same firms whose products they are supposed to critically analyze, and those firms exert pressure on rating agencies who too often put market share ahead of analytical rigor. Today we will explore the role of investment banks in the development of the crisis. We focus on the activities during 2007 of Goldman Sachs, one of the oldest and most successful firms on Wall Street. Those activities contributed to the economic collapse that came full-blown the following year. Goldman Sachs and other investment banks, when acting properly, play an important role in our economy. They help channel the nation's wealth into productive activities that create jobs and make 19

economic growth possible, bringing together investors and businesses and helping Americans save for retirement or a child's education. That's when investment banks act properly. But in looking at this crisis, it's hard not to echo the conclusion of another congressional committee, which found, "The results of the unregulated activities of the investment bankers ... were disastrous." That conclusion came in 1934, as the Senate looked into the reasons for the Great Depression. The parallels today are unmistakable. Goldman Sachs proclaims "a responsibility to our clients, our shareholders, our employees and our communities to support and fund ideas and facilitate growth." Yet the evidence shows that Goldman repeatedly put its own interests and profits ahead of the interests of its clients and our communities. Its misuse of exotic and complex financial structures helped spread toxic mortgages throughout the financial system. And when the system finally collapsed under the weight of those toxic mortgages, Goldman profited from the collapse. The evidence also shows that repeated public statements by the firm and its executives provide an inaccurate portrayal of Goldman's actions during 2007, the critical year when the housing bubble burst and the financial crisis took hold. The firm's own documents show that while it was marketing risky mortgage-related securities, it was placing large bets against the U.S. mortgage market. The firm has repeatedly denied making those large bets, despite overwhelming evidence. Why does this matter? Surely there is no law, ethical guideline or moral injunction against profit. But Goldman Sachs didn't just make money. It profited by taking advantage of its clients' reasonable expectation that it would not sell products that it didn't want to succeed, and that there was no conflict of economic interest between the firm and the customers it had pledged to serve. Goldman's actions demonstrate that it often saw its clients not as valuable customers, but as objects for its own profit. This matters because instead of doing well when its clients did well, Goldman Sachs did well when its clients lost money. Its conduct brings into question the whole function of Wall Street, which traditionally has been seen as an engine of growth, betting on America's successes and not its failures. [Note: There are 10 U.S. Senators on this SubCommittee. It is common procedure in hearingsin both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senatefor the Chairman (of the committee or subcommittee), and the highest ranking member of the other party, to make significant opening statements, to provide some context for the hearingand for other members to make shorter statements.] 5) Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: The Role of Investment Banks (the jargon is complicated, the transactions are complicatedyouve relied on that complicated situation to avoid a lot of scrutiny. ) Here is the opening statement of Sen. Claire McCaskill, from the same hearing (above): [Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: The Role of Investment Banks," and was held on Tuesday, April 27, 2010, at 10:00 a.m., in Room 106 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building] Webcast accessible from www.cspan.org Program title: Investment Banks and the Financial Crisis, Directors April 27, 2011 (at http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/293196-1 ) (Sen. McCaskills comments run from 39:50 to 42:40)(confirmed October 19, 2012) 20

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. You know, in the good old days of investment banking, (it was--), they were considered very honorable and proud institutionsour investment bankers of Wall Streetthey provided financial services: investment of capital in good businesses, helping government with assistance to issue bonds to build the great infrastructures of our nation. Then you fast forward through the public offerings of all these companies (to the date) when the risk of these companies shifted from the main partners to the nameless faceless shareholders. And you fast forward a little bit further, and you land right at the feet of synthetic CDOs. Now, I got to be honest, I think that if we had to put the odds on this hearing today you guys would probably have odds in your favor, because the jargon is complicated, the transactions are complicated youve relied on that complicated situation to avoid a lot of scrutiny. We have spent a lot of time going through all these documents, and let me just explain, in very simple terms, what synthetic CDOs are. They are instruments that are created so that people can bet on them. Its the la-la land of ledger entries. Its not investment in a business that has a good idea; its not assisting local government in building infrastructure. Its gambling. Pure and simpleraw gambling. Theyre called synthetic because theres nothing therebut the gamble, but the bet. You are the bookie; you are the house. You have less oversight and less regulationas you all began this wild wild west of tranches, waterfalls, equity tranches, residual warehousingas you began all that, you had less oversight than a pit boss in Las Vegas. And I got to tell yaand its not just youall of you were lemming like; you were chasing each other what you worried about most was a bad article in the Wall Street Journal, not a regulator. You were chasing compensation, you were chasing your colleagues and other investment banksand you were trying to make a killing. But let me just tell yayou think its so complicated, and you think youre so smartany street gambler would never place a bet with a bookie or a house with the record that is revealed in the documents that this committee has gathered. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 6) U.S. Government Debt, Liabilities, and Unfunded ObligationsCombining the figures above with the national debt and subtracting the value of federal assets, the federal government has $56.5 trillion ($56,529,800,000,000) in debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations as of September 30, 2010. From http://www.justfacts.com/nationaldebt.asp (footnotes relate to sources referenced at the justfacts.com webpage) (confirmed October 19, 2012) * As of December 22, 2011, the official debt of the United States government is $15.1 trillion ($15,123,728,427,980). This amounts to: $48,380 for every person living in the U.S. $127,431 for every household in the U.S. * Publicly traded companies are legally required to account for "explicit" and "implicit" future obligations such as employee pensions and retirement benefits. The federal budget, which is the "federal government's primary financial planning and control tool," is not bound by this rule. 21

* As of September 30, 2010 (the end of the federal government's fiscal year), the federal government has: $7.3 trillion ($7,297,000,000,000) in liabilities such as federal employee retirement and veterans' benefits $17.2 trillion ($17,195,000,000,000) in unfunded obligations for the Social Security program $22.8 trillion ($22,800,000,000,000) in unfunded obligations for the Medicare program $122 billion ($122,000,000,000) in unfunded obligations for two other "social insurance" programs called "Black Lung" and "Railroad Retirement" These unfunded obligations are referred to as "closed group present values" and are calculated in a manner that approximates how publicly traded companies are required to calculate their debts and obligations. The figures represent how much money must be immediately placed in interest-bearing investments to cover the shortfalls between projected revenues and expenditures for all current taxpayers and beneficiaries in these programs. * Combining the figures above with the national debt and subtracting the value of federal assets, the federal government has $56.5 trillion ($56,529,800,000,000) in debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations as of September 30, 2010. 7) global entertainment and media spending is expected to rise from $1.3 trillion to $1.7 trillion by 2014. From article PricewaterhouseCoopers releases Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2010-2014 (June 15, 2010), in the World News Report section of the EIN website (An EIN News Service for Global Professionals) (see http://www.einnews.com/pr-news/90509-pricewaterhousecoopers-releasesglobalentertainment-and-media-outlook-2010-2014- ) (confirmed October 19, 2012) PricewaterhouseCoopers' Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2010-2014 (Outlook), forecasts that global entertainment and media spending is expected to rise from $1.3 trillion to $1.7 trillion by 2014. 8) Worldwide Advertising Expenditures (2009)-- $421 billion From article Worldwide Advertising Spending by Media (July 22, 2009) at the website BitBriefs (Marketing Trends, News, Stats) (see http://www.bauer360.com/newsWatching%20the%20Worldwide%20Ad%20Spending%20Scuffle.html ) (Excerpt: According to the Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2009-2013 (PricewaterhouseCoopers) (PwC), worldwide advertising spending will reach $421 billion in 2009. (Also included: a Table which breaks down the spending into categories.) (confirmed October 19, 2012) Worldwide Advertising Expenditures (2009)-- $421 billion (Total Expenditures are in U.S. Dollars)

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9) The United States will lead the world in total advertising expenditures and online advertising expenditure. From an article titled Worldwide Internet Advertising Spending to Surpass $106 Billion in 2011, at the website Marketing Charts (at marketingcharts.com) (Excerpt in paragraph 2) (see http://www.marketingcharts.com/television/worldwide-internet-advertising-spending-to-surpass-106billion-in-2011-5068/ ) (Confirmed October 19,2012) The United States will lead the world in total advertising expenditures and online advertising expenditure with forecasts for 2011 at $265 billion and $45 billion. 10) The international market is saturated with American entertainment programming. All excerpts below are from International Communications: A Media Literacy Approach by Art Silverblatt and Nikolai Zlobin M.E. Sharpe July, 2004 (most content accessible at Google Books) (confirmed October 19, 2012) Popular programming reflects a level of acceptance and shared values among large numbers of people. People tend to watch programs that meet their approval. If they are truly offended by violent programs, they would not watch them. In that sense, media programming can be regarded as a text that reflects the attitudes, values, behaviors, preoccupations, and myths that define a culture. (p. 66) At the same time, media programming reinforces cultural attitudes, values, behaviors, preoccupations, and myths. Media messages are communicated through the countless hours of media programming that repeat, directly or indirectly, the cultural script. (p. 68) Finally, the media do not merely reflect or reinforce culture, but in fact shape attitudes, values, behavior, preoccupations, and myths. (p. 68) The international market is saturated with American entertainment programming. Hollywood films account for approximately 85% of movie audiences worldwide. Further, American programming makes up approximately 65% of global prime-time TV viewing. (p. 69) 11) The United States currently has 5 percent of the worlds population, but uses 25 percent of the worlds annual energy production. This disproportionate consumption of energy relative to global consumption causes loss of the worlds good will. From an Army Corps of Engineers Report (Engineer Research and Development Center) titled Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations Donald F. Fournier and Eileen T. Westervelt September 2005 Accessible from the energycrisis.org website (in section Issues subsection Security of the Executive Summary (p. 5); see http://www.energycrisis.org/us/army/EnergyTrends2005.pdf ) (Confirmed October 19, 2012) (Note: quoted by Roscoe Bartlett, Congressman, House of Representatives (R-MD) (USA) in his March 14, 2006 special presentation) (not currently accessible) (Report Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations also accessible from the website of Congressman Bartlett (see http://www.bartlett.house.gov/uploadedfiles/U.S.%20Army%20Corp%20of%20EngineersEnergy%20Report.pdf ) (Confirmed October 19, 2012) 23

The United States currently has 5 percent of the worlds population, but uses 25 percent of the worlds annual energy production. This disproportionate consumption of energy relative to global consumption causes loss of the worlds good will and provides a context for potential military conflicts, at the cost of lives, money, and political capital. A more equitable distribution of resources is in our best interest for a peaceful future. 12) peoples confidence in state institutionsis likely to dwindle even moreif it is becoming obvious in crisis regions that governments have in the past failed to develop suitable solution strategies and provide orientation for society during this period of transition. From report Armed Forces, Capabilities and Technologies in the 21st Century Environmental Dimensions of Security: Sub-study 1 Peak Oil--Security Policy Implications of Scarce Resources (112 pages) The study was produced by the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a branch of the German military (Lead Author: Lt. Col. ThomasWill) Bundeswehr Transformation Centre Future Analysis Branch Prtzeler Chaussee 25 15344 Strausberg November 2010 www.zentrum-transformation.bundeswehr.de [Special Note: The original German document (125 pgs) was approved for public release last November, yet neither the complete German version nor the partial English translation has attracted interest from mainstream media. From article Complete English translation of German military analysis of peak oil now available by Rick Munroe Published Aug 30 2011 by Energy Bulletin (see http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-08-30/completeenglish-translation-german-military-analysis-peak-oil-now-available ) (confirmed October 19,2012) ] Access to complete English translation pdf file provided in Complete English translation article by Rick Munroe at Energy Bulletin website (and is at http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf ) From Chapter 3 Possible Developments After Global Peak Oil; Section 3.1 Possible Peak Oil Induced Implications; Section 3.1 Possible Peak Oil Induced Implications; Subsection 3.1.4 Intra-Societal Risks of Peak Oil; subtitle Loss of Confidence Amongst Society (p. 54, paragraph 3; p. 55, paragraph 1) Historical case studies reveal that only continuous improvement of individual living conditions provide the basis for tolerant and open societies. Empirical studies for the OECD region also prove that setbacks in economic growth can lead to an increase in the number of votes for extremist and nationalistic parties. On the other hand, it cannot be ruled out that the peoples confidence in state institutions as well as politics would be considerably shaken. This confidence is likely to dwindle even more in societies in which it is already weak in particular if it is becoming obvious in crisis regions that governments have in the past failed to develop suitable solution strategies and provide orientation for society during this period of transition. This personalised loss of confidence, which can express itself, for example, in dressing down politicians, could depending on intensity and duration consolidate into a general and lasting crisis of confidence towards central national institutions and their ability to solve problems. A society, however, cannot survive without confidence. Sullenness with politics can give rise to lethargy or fatalism and can increase the likelihood of growing political instability and extremism. Via indirect legitimisation chains, this national loss of confidence could also have a negative impact on the legitimisation, functionality and actionability of supranational organisations and institutions as well.

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D. The End of the Era of Cheap Energy


1) The human communitys central task for the coming decades must be the undoing of its dependence on oil, coal, and natural gas in order to deal with the twin crises of resource depletion and climate chaos. From A View from Oils Peak, entry #184 posted on August 1, 2007 in the Museletter section of Richard Heinbergs website (currently accessible at his wordpress webpage http://heinberg.wordpress.com/2007/08/01/184-the-view-from-oil%E2%80%99s-peak/ ) (from the last five paragraphs in the section 2.What might happen in the next decades absent policies to address Peak Oil?and from the concluding paragraph) (confirmed October 19,2012) The global transport system is almost entirely dependent on oilnot just private passenger automobiles, but trucks, ships, diesel locomotives, and the entire passenger and freight airline industry. High fuel prices will thus impact entire economies as travel becomes more expensive and manufacturers and retailers are forced to absorb higher transport costs. Conventional industrial agriculture is also overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels. Artificial ammonia-based nitrogenous fertilizers use natural gas as a raw material; modern farm machinery runs on petroleum products; and oil provides the feedstock for making cheap pesticides. According to one study, approximately ten calories of fossil fuel energy are needed to produce each calorie of food energy in modern industrial agriculture. With the global proliferation of the industrial-chemical agriculture system, the products of that system are now also traded globally, enabling regions to host human populations larger than local resources alone could support. Those systems of global distribution and trade also rely on oil. Within the US, the mean distance for food transport is now estimated at 1,546 miles. High fuel prices and fuel shortages will therefore translate to higher food prices and could even cause food shortages. A small but crucial portion of oil consumed globally goes into the making of plastics and chemicals. Some of the more common petrochemical building blocks of our industrial world are ethylene, propylene, and butadiene. Further processing of just these three chemicals produces products as common, diverse, and important as disinfectants, solvents, antifreezes, coolants, lubricants, heat transfer fluids, and of course plastics, which are used in everything from building construction materials to packaging, clothing, and toys. Future oil supply problems will affect the entire chain of industrial products that incorporate petrochemicals. Economic impacts to transport, trade, manufacturing, and agriculture will in turn lead to internal social tensions within importing countries. In exporting countries the increasing value of remaining oil reserves will exacerbate rivalries between political factions vying to control this source of wealth. Also, increased competition between consuming nations for control of export flows, and between importing nations and exporters over contracts and pipelines, may lead to international conflict. None of these impacts is likely to be transitory. The crisis of Peak Oil will not be solved in days, weeks, or even years. Decades will be required to re-engineer modern economies to function with a perpetually declining supply of oil..

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.The human communitys central task for the coming decades must be the undoing of its dependence on oil, coal, and natural gas in order to deal with the twin crises of resource depletion and climate chaos. It is surely fair to say that fossil fuel dependency constitutes a systemic problem of a kind and scale that no society has ever had to address before. If we are to deal with this challenge successfully, we must engage in systemic thinking that leads to sustained, bold action. 2) I think we should leave oil before it leaves us. That should be our motto. So we should prepare for that day - through research and development on alternatives to oil, on which living standards we want to keep and what alternative ways we can find. From Dr. Fatih Birol (Chief Economist and Head of the Economic Analysis Division of the Paris-based International Energy Agency) Interview with Astrid Schneider (Internationale Politik) Posted at www.relocalize.net (no longer active) News Postings section on May 3, 2008 (accessible at http://old.relocalize.net/fatih_birol_interview_leave_oil_before_it_leaves_us (begins with question 23 by Schneider) (confirmed October 19, 2012) Schneider: If I understand you correctly, you say that the demand for oil could rise 3 % globally every year, while we have to expect a decrease of 4 % in oil production in the time from now until 2015. That would be 7 % each year which are missing. Birol: The demand might increase a little slower. But there could be a large gap between what should be there and what actually will be there, especially if we do not put massive efforts into improving the efficiency of cars or change to other transportation systems. If we don't take measures on the consumer side, the consumption will continue to grow. And if we have not invested enough into oil production, we will flounder. Schneider: But when you think of the life cycle of goods, of the long investment cycles of machines, power stations or air conditioning systems: do you think an adjustment of the consumer side to a lower supply path could be done that fast? Birol: No, but I don't think that prices will go up that rapidly. We can see a gradual incline and that will give the people some time to adapt. But on the long run it has to be clear: if oil will be gone by 2030, or in 2040 or 2050 does not change much. Schneider: You really say that? Birol: Yes, one day it will definitely end. And I think we should leave oil before it leaves us. That should be our motto. So we should prepare for that day - through research and development on alternatives to oil, on which living standards we want to keep and what alternative ways we can find. 3) Peak Oil and Climate Change present threats and imperatives of a scale unprecedented in human history. From an article titled The Green New Deal by Richard Heinberg , published on the website of Energy Bulletin on October 20, 2008 (at http://energybulletin.net/node/46934 ) (see paragraph 3) (confirmed
October 19,2012)

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Peak Oil and Climate Change present threats and imperatives of a scale unprecedented in human history. By taking up these imperatives through a de-carbonized retrofit of the nations (and ultimately the worlds) transport, food, and manufacturing systems, policy makers can address a number of crises simultaneouslyenvironmental decline, resource depletion, geopolitical competition for control of energy, unemployment, balance of trade deficits, malnutrition and food related health problems, and more. 4) To make America energy-independent is not something I think any government can achieve. But within 50 years thats what nature will deliver. From article Reflections from Colin Campbell on Peak Oil and ASPO by Dave Bowden (On September 23, 2009 Dave Bowden video-taped Colin Campbell at his home on the southwestern coast of Ireland. Excerpts of that interview make up the article) at the Energy Bulletin website on October 19, 2009; see http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50427 ) (Excerpts from that video tape make up the article)
(confirmed October 19, 2012)

[Note: Colin J. Campbell, Ph.D. Oxford, (born in Berlin, Germany in 1931) is a retired British petroleum geologist who predicted that oil production would peak by 2007. The consequences of this are uncertain but drastic, due to the world's dependence on fossil fuels for the vast majority of its energy. His theories have received wide attention but are disputed by some in the oil industry and have not significantly changed governmental energy policies at this time. Influential papers by Campbell include The Coming Oil Crisis, written with Jean Laherrre in 1998 and credited with convincing the International Energy Agency of the coming peak; and The End of Cheap Oil, published the same year in Scientific American. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, founded by Campbell in 2000, has been gaining recognition in the recent years. The Association has organized yearly international conferences since 2002. The most recent was in Denver, Colorado on 11-13 October 2009. (From Wikipedia entry for Colin J. Campbell; at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Campbell_(geologist) )
(confirmed October 19,2012) (from last exchange in the article)

Question: What about the notion of making America energy independent? Campbell: It cant be done voluntarily. To make America energy-independent is not something I think any government can achieve. But within 50 years thats what nature will deliver. Countries will have to be energy independent. They have no alternative. Some may get there quicker than others, but its not something some government will say, well this is our plan of action. It will delivered to them by the force of nature. So America will indeed be energy independent and probably quite soon if these imports dry out. What that means and how they react to such a situation is another days work. 5) the likelihood that the vast sums of investment necessary to produce very costly oiland the likelihood that there will be customers willing to pay a high price to use itwill very likely diminish, and continue to diminish, as more and more people discover that it is possible to have high quality of life while using much less resources.

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From The IPCR Workshop Primer by Stefan Pasti (Founder and Outreach Coordinator of The Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative at www.ipcri.net )(February, 2010; 425 pages) (at http://www.ipcri.net/The_IPCR_Workshop_Primer_Feb_2010.pdf )(see p. 18) (confirmed October 19, 2012) This writer understands peak oil in the following sense: the increasing awareness that the era of cheap oil is over is one element among many (including global warming, widespread resource depletion, ecological footprint analysis, etc.) which are pointing to the need for much less energy intensive human settlements in the future. As high level investment portfolios shift in response to these indicators, the likelihood that the vast sums of investment necessary to produce very costly oiland the likelihood that there will be customers willing to pay a high price to use itwill very likely diminish, and continue to diminish, as more and more people discover that it is possible to have high quality of life while using much less resources. Thus, while there may yet be more oil on this planet than we have used thus far, it is becoming more and more likely that we have arrived at a peak in terms of how much oil we collectivelywill use in one year.

E. The increasing world population and its implications relating to widespread resource depletion
1) World Population (estimate October 19, 2012) = 7,046,724,871 From www.infoplease.com at www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0883352.html ; and U.S. Bureau of the Census POP Clock (world population) estimate at www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/popclockw ) (both confirmed October 19,2012) In 1804, the world population was 1 billion. In 1927, the world population was 2 billion (123 years later). In 1960, the world population was 3 billion (33 years later). In 1974, the world population was 4 billion (14 years later). In 1987, the world population was 5 billion (13 years later). In 1999, the world population was 6 billion (12 years later). In 2011, the world population was 7 billion (12 years later). As of 19:02 UTC (EST+5) Oct 19, 2012, the world population was estimated to be 7,046,724,871. 2) Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history. a) From Washington Post article Report on Global Ecosystems Calls for Radical Changes: Earths sustainability not guaranteed unless action is taken to protect resources (Shankar Vedantam, March 30, 2005 p. A02 (see http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10966-2005Mar29.html ) (paragraphs 1, 2, and 4) (confirmed October 19,2012)

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The new report collates research from many specific locales to create the first global snapshot of ecosystems. More than 1,300 authors from 95 countries participated in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, whose results are being made public today by the United Nations and by several private and public organizations. b) From the Overview of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment at the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment website (see http://www.maweb.org/en/About.aspx ) See section What are the main findings of the MA? (see 4 bullet summaries) (confirmed April 3, 2011) Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history, largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber and fuel. This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth. The changes that have been made to ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in human well-being and economic development, but these gains have been achieved at growing costs in the form of the degradation of many ecosystem services, increased risks of nonlinear changes, and the exacerbation of poverty for some groups of people. These problems, unless addressed, will substantially diminish the benefits that future generations obtain from ecosystems. 3) The unsettling infographic timeline was created to answer the daunting questionwhen can we expect our most valuable resources to run out?" From July 18, 2012 article Global Resources Stock Check at http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120618-global-resources-stock-check?selectorSection=scienceenvironment and July 25, 2012 article Unsettling Infographic Details the Impending Disappearance of Worlds Natural Resources at http://www.planetizen.com/node/57717 (Infographic is at first Internet address above) (confirmed October 19, 2012) a) From article Global Resources Stock Check If we fail to correct current consumption trends, then when will our most valuable natural resources run out? More than 100 science academies around the world have called on world leaders to take action on population and consumption at the Rio+20 summit. As the worlds population soars, so does its consumption, and as a result we are stretching many of our natural resources to their limits. Of course, the assumption is that human ingenuity and market forces will prevent supplies from running out: we could create better or cheaper extraction methods, recycle materials, find alternatives to non-renewable sources, or reduce consumption.

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The hope is that talks at the Rio+20 Earth summit will help to steer the world economy on a more sustainable path. But the clock is already ticking, and if the unthinkable happens and we fail to correct current trends, then when can we expect our most valuable resources to run out? If you want to see the data we used to construct this infographic, you can find it here [PDF]. b) From article Unsettling Infographic Details the Impending Disappearance of Worlds Natural Resources The BBC has provided an infographic timeline indicating when scientists and researchers predict valuable resources and ecosystems will disappear, urging planners and officials to address the dangers of current population and consumption levels. The unsettling infographic timeline was created to answer the daunting question that is plaguing planners, officials, environmentalists and industry: "the clock is already ticking, and if the unthinkable happens and we fail to correct current trends, then when can we expect our most valuable resources to run out?" Predictions include an ice-free summer in the Arctic by 2030 and the loss of essential minerals like silver, copper and titanium in under 50 years. Prepared in anticipation of last month's Rio+20 Earth Summit, the lack of conclusive progress at the conference means the clock has begun to tick just a little bit louder. 4) Existing policies and market incentives have contributed to this problem of capital misallocation because they allow businesses to run up significant, largely unaccounted for, and unchecked social and environmental externalities. From Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication United Nations Environment Programme 2011; from the Introduction, p. 14-15 (full report accessible at http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/GreenEconomyReport/tabid/29846/Default.aspx ) (press release dated November 16, 2011, accessible at http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/Portals/88/documents/ger/GER_press_16nov11_en.pdf )(confirmed October 19, 2012) The causes of these crises vary, but at a fundamental level they all share a common feature: the gross misallocation of capital. During the last two decades, much capital was poured into property, fossil fuels and structured financial assets with embedded derivatives. However, relatively little in comparison was invested in renewable energy, energy efficiency, public transportation, sustainable agriculture, ecosystem and biodiversity protection, and land and water conservation. Most economic development and growth strategies encouraged rapid accumulation of physical, financial and human capital, but at the expense of excessive depletion and degradation of natural capital, which includes the endowment of natural resources and ecosystems. By depleting the worlds stock of natural wealth often irreversibly this pattern of development and growth has had detrimental impacts on the wellbeing of current generations and presents tremendous risks and challenges for the future. The recent multiple crises are symptomatic of this pattern. 30

Existing policies and market incentives have contributed to this problem of capital misallocation because they allow businesses to run up significant, largely unaccounted for, and unchecked social and environmental externalities. To reverse such misallocation requires better public policies, including pricing and regulatory measures, to change the perverse incentives that drive this capital misallocation and ignore social and environmental externalities.

F. Current trends indicate that we are creating more and more urban agglomerations
1) Twentieth century cities and industrial regions are dependent for survival and growth on a vast and increasingly global hinterland of ecologically productive landscapes. From Revisiting Carrying Capacity: Area Based Indicators of Sustainability, by William E. Rees, 1996, (at www.dieoff.org/page110.htm ) (confirmed October 19, 2012)
(in subsection Footprinting the Human Economy; in Box 3 A Family of Area-based Sustainability Indicators)

Ecological FootprintThe corresponding area of productive land and aquatic ecosystems required to produce the resources used, and to assimilate the wastes produced, by a defined population at a specified material standard of living, wherever on Earth that land may be located.
[in section Appropriating Carrying Capacity and Ecological Footprints (paragraph 5)]

Cities necessarily appropriate the ecological output and life support functions of distant regions all over the world through commercial trade and the natural biogeochemical cycles of energy and material. Indeed, the annual flows of natural income required by any defined population can be called its appropriated carrying capacity. Since for every material flow there must be a corresponding land/ecosystem source or sink, the total area of land/water required to sustain these flows on a continuous basis is the true ecological footprint of the referent population on the Earth.
[in section Appropriating Carrying Capacity and Ecological Footprints (paragraph 4)]

as a result of high population densities, the enormous increase in per capita energy and material consumption made possible by (and required by) technology, and universally increasing dependencies on trade, the ecological locations of human settlements no longer coincide with their geographic locations. Twentieth century cities and industrial regions are dependent for survival and growth on a vast and increasingly global hinterland of ecologically productive landscapes. 2) The 25 Largest Cities From theWikipedia page for Megacity (at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megacity ) (Wikipedia Source: Th. Brinkhoff: The Principal Agglomerations of theWorld, 2011-07-01) (confirmed October 19, 2012)

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1. Toyko, Japan 34,300,000 2. Guangzhou, China 25,200,000 3. Seoul, South Korea 25,100,000 4. Shanghai, China 24,800,000 5. Delhi, India 23,300,000 6. Mumbai, India 23,000,000 7. Mexico City, Mexico 22,900,000 8. New York, USA 22,000,000 9. Sao Paulo, Brazil 20,900,000 10. Manila, Philippines 20,300,000 11. Jakarta, Indonesia 18,900,000 12. Los Angeles, USA 18,100,000 13. Karachi, Pakistan 17,000,000 14. Osaka, Japan 16,700,000 15. Kolkata, India 16,600,000 16. Cairo, Egypt 15,300,000 17. Buenos Aires, Argentina 14,800,000 18. Moscow, Russia 14,800,000 19. Dhaka, Bangladesh 14,000,000 20. Beijing, China 13,900,000 21. Tehran, Iran 13,100,000 22. Istanbul, Turkey 13,000,000 23. London, UK 12,500,000 24. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 12,500,000 25. Lagos, Nigeria 12,100,000 3) The growing scarcity of water and the high energy cost of transporting it. From Plan B 4.0: Mobilization to Save Civilization by Lester R. Brown (Earth Policy Institute) (see Chapter 6 Designing Cities for People (in section The Ecology of Cities, p. 145-146) (at http://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/book_files/pb4ch06.pdf )(confirmed October 19, 2012) Cities require a concentration of food, water, energy, and materials that nature cannot provide. Collecting these masses of materials and later dispersing them in the form of garbage, sewage, and pollutants in air and water is challenging city managers everywhere. Early cities relied on food and water from the surrounding countryside, but today cities often depend on distant sources for basic amenities. Los Angeles, for example, draws much of its water from the Colorado River, some 600 miles away. Mexico Citys burgeoning population, living at an altitude of over 9,000 feet, depends on the costly pumping of water from 100 miles away that must be lifted over 3,000 feet to augment inadequate water supplies. Beijing is planning to draw water from the Yangtze River basin some 800 miles away. Food comes from even greater distances, as illustrated by Tokyo. While the city still gets its rice from the highly productive farmers in Japan, with their land carefully protected by government policy, its wheat comes largely from the Great Plains of North America and from Australia. Its corn supply comes largely from the U.S. Midwest. Soybeans come from the U.S. Midwest and the Brazilian cerrado. 32

The oil used to move resources into and out of cities often comes from distant oil fields. Rising oil prices will affect cities, but they will affect even more the suburbs that surround them. The growing scarcity of water and the high energy cost of transporting it over long distances may begin to constrain the growth of some cities. 4) London throws away 560,000 tonnes of food (per year) as waste. From Press Release (August 13, 2002) Londoners Running Up Massive Debt on Earths Resources at http://citylimitslondon.com/city_limits_press_release.htm (see paragraph 8) (Confirmed October 19, 2012) Forty one per cent of the Ecological Footprint (2.80 gha) is accounted for by the food Londoners eat. In total, London consumes 6.9 million tones of food (per year), more than three quarters of which is imported. London throws away 560,000 tonnes of food (per year) as waste. 5) Supermarkets, restaurants and other nonresidential establishments in Montgomery County throw away 96million pounds of food a year. From article Montgomery County researches plan to redistribute unused food to hungry by By Rebecca Cohen (published October 9, 2012 in the Washington Post (at http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/montgomery-county-researches-plan-to-redistribute-unusedfood-to-hungry/2012/10/09/831d0ee0-1252-11e2-a16b-2c110031514a_story.html ) (confirmed October 13, 2012) Supermarkets, restaurants and other nonresidential establishments in Montgomery County throw away 96million pounds of food a year. A new initiative by the County Council aims to use it to put meals in the mouths of the hungry instead. The council will appoint a work group, including representatives from county government agencies, public schools, the food industry and local nonprofit groups, to research implementation of a food recovery program and produce a report by July, council member Valerie Ervin (D-Eastern County) said Tuesday at a news conference. At $92,909, Montgomerys median household income is the 10th highest in the country, according to 2011 data from the U.S. Census Bureau. But a third of Montgomery students qualify for free or reducedprice school lunches, said Ervin, who sponsored the council resolution. Hunger is an ever-increasing problem in our county, Ervin said. The county is working on partnerships with restaurants, hospitals, supermarkets including Giant and Safeway, and schools, including the Universities at Shady Grove and Montgomery College, to redistribute unused food, said Ervins chief of staff, Sonya Healy.

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Montgomerys food recovery initiative follows in the footsteps of several others in the Washington area. D.C. Central Kitchen, a nonprofit established in 1989, prepares 5,000 meals a day for homeless shelters in the District, spokesman Paul Day said. Ervin was inspired to establish a food recycling program after she learned of efforts at the Food Recovery Network, a student group at the University of Maryland. Since September 2011, the group has scooped up leftovers from the university dining hall and sports games and delivered them to charitable organizations. It spends about 10 cents per meal on costs such as transportation and has donated 30,000 meals to Maryland food banks and homeless shelters. Food Recovery Network co-founder Ben Simon, a University of Maryland senior, is helping Ervin and other officials plan for the countywide program. He has experience in dealing with such challenges as potential donors who fear a lawsuit if their food makes someone sick. A federal law passed in 1996 protects donors from liability in such situations, he said. The Rev. Ben Slye describes the deliveries that his Christian Life Center in Riverdale Park receives from the Food Recovery Network on Mondays and Fridays as incredible. Baked chicken, fried chicken, salmon, fish, tuna, rice and beans, pizza, Slye said. Every kind of food you can imagine. Food from the University of Marylands dining halls typically feeds 200 of the Christian Life Centers clients per week, Slye said. The haul after a Terrapins football game can feed 1,200. If county authorities throw their efforts behind food recycling, Slye hopes to be able to feed many more. Theres not a food shortage problem in our nation, Slye said. Theres a food distribution problem. 6) Peak Oil, Bottlenecks in Supply of Existentially Important Goods, and Transformation Unemployment From report Armed Forces, Capabilities and Technologies in the 21st Century Environmental Dimensions of Security: Sub-study 1 Peak Oil--Security Policy Implications of Scarce Resources (112 pages) The study was produced by the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a branch of the German military (Lead Author: Lt. Col. ThomasWill) Bundeswehr Transformation Centre Future Analysis Branch Prtzeler Chaussee 25 15344 Strausberg November 2010 (German website at www.zentrum-transformation.bundeswehr.de) Complete report in English at http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf [Special Note: The original German document (125 pgs) was approved for public release last November (2010), yet neither the complete German version nor the partial English translation has attracted interest from mainstream media. From article Complete English translation of German military analysis of peak oil now available by Rick Munroe Published Aug 30 2011 by Energy Bulletin (see http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-08-30/completeenglish-translation-german-military-analysispeak-oil-now-available )(Link to complete English version of report in article) (confirmed October 19, 2012) ] a) From Chapter 3 Possible Developments After Global Peak Oil; Section 3.1 Possible Peak Oil Induced Implications; Section 3.1 Possible Peak Oil Induced Implications; Subsection 3.1.4 Intra34

Societal Risks of Peak Oil; subtitle Restrictions in Private and Goods Transportation (p. 49, paragraph 2 and 3) Given that no sufficient alternatives on the basis of regenerative energy sources have been established for transportation, peak oil is likely to cause a substantial rise in costs and possibly huge restrictions in motorised private transportation. This would have immediate effects on the functional mechanisms and ways of life of modern industrialised societies. Sudden shortages could be eased with the use of regulatory or voluntary measures (mobility vouchers, car-free Sunday etc.). However, suburban settlement structures in industrialized countries in particular (living in the suburb - working in the city centre) hamper a rapid transformation of private transportation. If the restrictions are considerable, all economic sectors concerned from the automobile industry through the construction business to tourism would experience a downturn. The mobility crisis could turn into an important new aspect of the economic crisis. (this writers italics). .A possible consequence would be bottlenecks in the supply of existentially important goods. (this writers italics) b) From Chapter 3 Possible Developments After Global Peak Oil; Section 3.1 Possible Peak Oil Induced Implications; Section 3.1 Possible Peak Oil Induced Implications; Subsection 3.1.4 IntraSocietal Risks of Peak Oil; subtitle Upheavel in Economic Structures (p. 54, paragraph 1) it is not possible to rule out considerable frictions on the labour market. New economic sectors, jobs and market opportunities can indeed develop in the wake of post-fossil transformation. This economic upheaval could, however, initially result in significant transformation unemployment. It is regarded as a special form of structural unemployment that can evolve as a result of profound changes in transformation countries. Most importantly, a devaluation of employees human capital may occur because the change in structure causes thus far fully adequate qualifications to be replaced by other qualification requirements. Depending on its scope and duration, transformation unemployment could develop into a major economic problem. 7) As with aging highway infrastructure, however, the vast network of pipes built out during the boom years of the 20th century is now nearing the end of its life span. From article titled Water Pipe Study: United States Needs $1 Trillion For Drinking Water Lines Over Next 25 Years by Matt Sledge on February 29, 2012 in Huffington Post (see http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/28/water-pipe-study-systems_n_1307715.html ) (confirmed October 19,2012) Plugging the leaks in water pipes and building new ones to keep up with a growing population could cost the United States $1 trillion over the next 25 years, according to an industry study released Monday. That study unearths a subject few Americans think about: buried drinking-water mains. As with aging highway infrastructure, however, the vast network of pipes built out during the boom years of the 20th century is now nearing the end of its life span. 35

"We've known for a long time that pipe networks are aging. We didn't appreciate the magnitude of the challenge, said Tom Curtis, deputy executive director of the American Water Works Association, which commissioned the report. The size of the need was startling even to water professionals. The report did not include wastewater lines, which could double the national price-tag. Unlike other areas of infrastructure investment, Curtis said, utilities have invested in fixing drinking water lines -- but the need is about to ramp up as many lines reach the end of their lives. If water utilities try to delay repairs, he said, that would eventually translate into more money for repairs and new lines. The water utilities the AWWA represents will spend differently depending on their region. In the Northeast, aging systems and stagnant population growth means cities and towns will spend more replacing old lines ($92 billion) versus building new ones ($16 billion) through 2035. In the fast-growing West, by contrast, new lines will cost $153 billion versus $82 billion to bring old systems up to snuff. The report is more accurate and complete than previous efforts, like the drinking water report by the Environmental Protection Agency, AWWA argues, because it involves an exhaustive look, including pipe materials to soil types. Curtis said that some older cast iron pipes -- the 100-year-old pipes often cited as a prime example of creaky water infrastructure -- are actually in good shape. In 1900, almost all the pipes that were being laid down were cast iron pipe. Turns out that stuff lasts a very long time, he said -- up to 130 years. Still, in many places the water bill is coming due. Payments will look very different from those for highways, which rely in large part on state and federal gas tax receipts that only loosely track how much people actually drive. Almost all money spent on underground water lines is paid for directly by users themselves through water bills. The cost is about $3.75 per 1,000 gallons of water, according to AWWA, but that could increase in years to come. Aurel Arndt, general manager of the Lehigh County Authority, which oversees drinking and wastewater services near Allentown, Pa., said much of that system's expansion was in the 1960s or later, so pipes are still in good shape. But for older towns in the Northeast, he said, the future is more stark. Replacing old water mains, said Arndt, who sits on an AWWA advisory council, is going to challenge many communities, particularly those where they've been experiencing economic problems, and also in some places where the population has declined. You have a smaller customer base that has to pay a bigger bill, and that's never a welcome circumstance."

G. The U.S. and many other countries will enter the next 15 to 20 years burdened by substantial public debt
1) Combining the figures above with the national debt and subtracting the value of federal assets, the federal government has $56.5 trillion ($56,529,800,000,000) in debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations as of September 30, 2010. 36

StatisticsU.S. Government Debt, Liabilities, and Unfunded Obligations (From http://www.justfacts.com/nationaldebt.asp ) (footnotes relate to sources referenced at the justfacts.com webpage) (confirmed October 19, 2012) * As of December 22, 2011, the official debt of the United States government is $15.1 trillion ($15,123,728,427,980). This amounts to: $48,380 for every person living in the U.S. $127,431 for every household in the U.S. * Publicly traded companies are legally required to account for "explicit" and "implicit" future obligations such as employee pensions and retirement benefits. The federal budget, which is the "federal government's primary financial planning and control tool," is not bound by this rule. * As of September 30, 2010 (the end of the federal government's fiscal year), the federal government has: $7.3 trillion ($7,297,000,000,000) in liabilities such as federal employee retirement and veterans' benefits $17.2 trillion ($17,195,000,000,000) in unfunded obligations for the Social Security program $22.8 trillion ($22,800,000,000,000) in unfunded obligations for the Medicare program $122 billion ($122,000,000,000) in unfunded obligations for two other "social insurance" programs called "Black Lung" and "Railroad Retirement" These unfunded obligations are referred to as "closed group present values" and are calculated in a manner that approximates how publicly traded companies are required to calculate their debts and obligations. The figures represent how much money must be immediately placed in interest-bearing investments to cover the shortfalls between projected revenues and expenditures for all current taxpayers and beneficiaries in these programs. * Combining the figures above with the national debt and subtracting the value of federal assets, the federal government has $56.5 trillion ($56,529,800,000,000) in debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations as of September 30, 2010. 2) Ultimately, however, the WEO forecast rests on critical policy action in the euro area and the United States, and it is very difficult to estimate the probability that this action will materialize. From Executive Summary of World Economic Outlook: Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth (October, 2012) International Monetary Fund (Executive Summary at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/pdf/exesum.pdf ) (first five paragraphs)(Full Report, and access to other sections, at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/index.htm ) (confirmed October 19, 2012) The recovery has suffered new setbacks, and uncertainty weighs heavily on the outlook. A key reason is that policies in the major advanced economies have not rebuilt confidence in medium-term prospects. 37

Tail risks, such as those relating to the viability of the euro area or major U.S. fiscal policy mistakes, continue to preoccupy investors. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast thus sees only a gradual strengthening of activity from the relatively disappointing pace of early 2012. Projected global growth, at 3.3 and 3.6 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively, is weaker than in the July 2012 WEO Update, which was in turn lower than in the April 2012 WEO (Chapter 1). Output is expected to remain sluggish in advanced economies but still relatively solid in many emerging market and developing economies. Unemployment is likely to stay elevated in many parts of the world. And financial conditions will remain fragile, according to the October 2012 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). Chapter 2 discusses regional developments in detail. The WEO forecast rests on two crucial policy assumptions. The first is that European policymakers consistent with the GFSRs baseline scenariowill adopt policies that gradually ease financial conditions further in periphery economies. In this regard, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently done its part. It is now up to national policymakers to move and activate the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), while articulating a credible path and beginning to implement measures to achieve a banking union and greater fiscal integration. The second assumption is that U.S. policymakers will prevent the drastic automatic tax increases and spending cutbacks (the fiscal cliff) implied by existing budget law, raise the U.S. federal debt ceiling in a timely manner, and make good progress toward a comprehensive plan to restore fiscal sustainability. The WEO forecast could once again be disappointed on both accounts. More generally, downside risks have increased and are considerable. The IMF staffs fan chart, which uses financial and commodity market data and analyst forecasts to gauge riskssuggests that there is now a 1 in 6 chance of global growth falling below 2 percent, which would be consistent with a recession in advanced economies and low growth in emerging market and developing economies. Ultimately, however, the WEO forecast rests on critical policy action in the euro area and the United States, and it is very difficult to estimate the probability that this action will materialize. This juncture presents major difficulties for policymakers. In many advanced economies, injections of liquidity are having a positive impact on financial stability and output and employment, but the impact may be diminishing. Many governments have started in earnest to reduce excessive deficits, but because uncertainty is high, confidence is low, and financial sectors are weak, the significant fiscal achievements have been accompanied by disappointing growth or recessions. In emerging market and developing economies, policymakers are conscious of the need to rebuild fiscal and monetary policy space but are wondering how to calibrate policies in the face of major external downside risks. An effective policy response in the major advanced economies is the key to improving prospects and inspiring more confidence about the future. In the short term, the main tasks are to rule out the tail risk scenarios and adopt concrete plans to bring down public debt over the medium term. 3) the world economy faces a perfect storm of risks. From article Global Economy Faces 'Perfect Storm' With Eurozone Crisis, 'Fiscal Cliff,' Slowdown, Iran Conflict by Dan Perry October 7, 2012 at the Huffington Post (see http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/07/global-economy-perfectstorm_n_1865148.html?ir=Business#slide=1441149 ) (whole article) (confirmed October 19, 2012)

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Experts and leaders gathered in Italy may disagree on the cure, but the malady seems clear: the world economy faces a perfect storm of risks that include prolonged crisis in a structurally flawed Europe, political paralysis pushing America off a fiscal cliff, a slowdown in the emerging economies drying up the last of global growth, and the spectacularly destabilizing prospect of war over Iran's nuclear program. A world of such unpredictable peril is also one in which jitters suppress the appetite for private and corporate risk, yielding meager investment and low consumption and prolonging the woes that snuck up on a booming world in the summer of 2007 as a credit crunch, mushrooming a year later into the Great Recession. Many attendees at the annual Ambrosetti Forum at Lake Como on Friday fretted about mounting U.S. debt and the Europe's inability to balance electorates' apparent insistence on national sovereignty with the need for regional coherence to salvage the teetering euro. But economist Nouriel Roubini predicted years of gloom almost regardless of what is decided. That analysis is rooted in the specific nature of this crisis, a downward spiral in which a financial meltdown largely caused by excess credit was defused by a blast of public spending; that 2009 stimulus, widely credited with avoiding a global depression, pushed some governments too far into the red for the markets' liking a sovereign debt crisis; and this is turn was attacked through severe austerity measures that suppressed spending to the point that countries cannot grow their way back to prosperity. "History suggests that whenever (there is) a crisis with too much private debt first and public debt second you have a painful process of deleveraging, said the famously apocalyptic New York University professor, a glowering fixture at such international talk-shops. "That would imply many years, up to a decade, of low economic growth. And guess what? Economic recovery in the U.S. has been unending and in the eurozone and U.K. there's outright economic contraction right now, and that's not going to change unfortunately in the next few years. The grim prognosis was consistent with new figures released a day earlier by the OECD, a club of the world's richest nations. Its report found that the global economy is slowing and that the G7 economies would grow at an annualized rate of just 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2012. Furthermore, the OECD found, the continuing eurozone crisis is dampening global confidence, weakening trade and employment and slowing economic growth worldwide. How to fix the eurozone, then? The different views are familiar. Ali Babican, Turkey's deputy prime minister for economic and financial affairs, bemoaned the lack of a sense of common European interest alluding to the lack of sympathy in places like Germany for the woes of an economically hammered eurozone colleague like Greece. Other speakers focused on structural problems such as the Balkanization of Europe's banking system, which lacks a central guarantor like America's FDIC.

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Increasingly popular is the argument that it is fundamentally illogical to allow a country to blunder into massive debt if it doesn't have the monetary tools to diminish its debt lacking a currency to devalue. Roubini said that the only solution was to extend the euro's monetary union in the direction of a banking, fiscal or even political union, at least to the point of having a single eurozone finance minister empowered to veto individual countries' budgets for exceeding a given deficit limit. Today the eurozone is disintegrating. ... either move forward or you're going to fall off a cliff. That rankled former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, who declaimed the idea of a United States of Europeas counter to the psychology and history of the region. "The history of Europe is a history of states, said Aznar, who led Spain from 1996 to 2004, a period of tremendous growth that seems an epoch away. We must restrict this and not create another thing that does not work. Better, he said quietly, was to ensure that countries take the right decisions. Some applied that label to one decision this week, a bond-buying plan from the European Central Bank that continued to lift financial markets on Friday. But others noted that the offer by ECB president Mario Draghi is highly conditioned. "The decision by the ECB is extremely important but ... the ECB is only one instrument (and) if governments do not do their part the ECB will not be able to succeed, said JPMorgan Chase International chairman Jocob Frenkel. It was easier to find common ground on the question of the United States with great concerns that country is headed toward another debt-ceiling crisis because regardless of the presidential election outcome Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on how to close a deficit that is digging an ever deeper debt hole. "The largest economy of the world cannot continue this way without doing any kind of predictability about what is going to happen, said Babican. We don't know much about the budget of 2012 and we don't know what kind of fiscal policy there will be in 2013. A fiscal cliff is coming. Also clouding the atmosphere was the slowdown in emerging nations including China, despite growth there that remains far higher than in the West. "Seven percent growth may seem high, but for China, which had double-digit growth for 20 years, it really means bad news, said Li Cheng, a China expert from the Brookings Institute. He said there was risk of millions of layoffs which could spark the largest crisis in (Communist China's) history because it may cause revolution. The final element of what Roubini described as the global perfect storm is the possibility of an attack by Israel or the United States on Iran because it's clear that negotiations have failed on stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions. The last thing the world needs given its fragility is another war in the Middle East and a spike in oil prices, Roubini said.

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4) In July, Spaniards withdrew a record 75 billion euros, or $94 billion, from their banks an amount equal to 7 percent of the countrys overall economic output as doubts grew about the durability of Spains financial system. From article Fears Rising, Spaniards Pull Out Their Cash, and Get Out of Spain by Landon Thomas, Jr. 9/3/12 (at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/04/business/global/money-and-people-leave-spain-aseconomic-gloom-deepens.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1346756453YJmQ9nXsEJjQRv%20tMSl2Aw ) (confirmed October 19, 2012) In July, Spaniards withdrew a record 75 billion euros, or $94 billion, from their banks an amount equal to 7 percent of the countrys overall economic output as doubts grew about the durability of Spains financial system. The deposit outflow in Spain reflects a broader capital flight problem that is by far the most serious in the euro zone. According to a recent research note from Nomura, capital departing the country equaled a startling 50 percent of gross domestic product over the past three months driven largely by foreigners unloading stocks and bonds but also by Spaniards transferring their savings to foreign banks. The withdrawals accelerated a trend that began in the middle of last year, and came despite a European commitment to pump up to 100 billion euros into the Spanish banking system. Analysts will be watching to see whether the August data, when available, shows an even faster rate of capital flight. More disturbing for Spain is that the flight is starting to include members of its educated and entrepreneurial elite who are fed up with the lack of job opportunities in a country where the unemployment rate touches 25 percent. According to official statistics, 30,000 Spaniards registered to work in Britain in the last year, and analysts say that this figure would be many multiples higher if workers without documents were counted. That is a 25 percent increase from a year earlier. No doubt there is a little bit of panic, said Jos Garca Montalvo, an economist at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona. The wealthy people have already taken their money out. Now its the professionals and midrange people who are moving their money to Germany and London. The mood is very, very bad. It is possible that the outlook could improve if the European Central Banks governing council, which meets Thursday, signals a plan to help shore up the finances of Spain and other euro zone laggards by intervening in the bond markets. But right now, if anything, Spains picture is growing dimmer. On Friday, the governments bank rescue fund said it would need to pump up to 5 billion euros into the failed mortgage-lending giant Bankia, which the state seized in May. And on Monday, Andalusia became the latest of Spains semiautonomous regions to ask the central government for rescue money. The wider prospects for the euro zone are also still bleak. Moodys Investors Service said on Monday that it had changed its outlook on the AAA rating of the European Union to negative, and that it might downgrade the rating if it decides to cut the ratings on the unions four largest budget contributors. 41

Spains gathering gloom comes despite a gradual return of capital to banks in Greece and the relative stability of deposits in those other euro zone trouble spots, Italy, Ireland and Portugal. The continued exodus of money and people from Spain could be a warning to European policy makers that bailing out the country a step now widely expected may not stem the panic as long as the Spanish economy remains in a funk. It was a lesson learned in Greece, where despite successive European bailouts, about a third of deposits have been withdrawn from its banks since 2009, as the public worried that Athens might have to return to the drachma. Spain is still a far cry from a nearly bankrupt Greece: it has a much larger and more diverse economy, lower levels of debt and a bond market that is still functioning. It might be more accurate to say that money is leaving Spanish banks at more of a jog than anything close to a sprint. 5) If you dont believe the growth rate is going to be that great, then you have to ask yourself some very fundamental questions. Commentary from Richard Ravitch (former Lt. Gov., New York) from a video accessible at cspan.org. Program was titled Urban Institute: Challenges for New Governors: Budgets and Employment (date of program: November 2, 2010) (timing of excerpts included at end of excerpts, video at http://www.cspanvideo.org/program/NewGoverno&showFullAbstract=1 ) (confirmed October 19,2012) If you believe the rate of growth of our economy is going to be what it was in the prior two decades, then there is arguably some justification for kicking the can forward and using borrowed money to cover todays expenses. If you dont believe that growth rate is going to be that great, then you have to ask yourself some very fundamental questions. it requires questioning every assumption youve ever made about what is good and worthy in public expenditures (ending at 48.16).(and) you have to question whether or not everyone, everyone is this whole economic system, isnt going to have toto use the vernacularput some skin in the game to avoid a real catastrophe for our federal system. (ending at 48.40) We have to make some very, very touch choices in this society, the likes of which weve never had to make before because austerity is now so compelling a fact in every micro decision that government makes. I cant begin to tell you how this process is going to work out, but I can tell you if it doesnt theres going to be some terrible things happeningbecause at some point somebodys going to run out of cash. (ending at 1:21.52) 6) Some might assume that bond markets are shielded from the effects of climate change, ecosystem degradation, and water scarcity. With more than $40 trillion of sovereign debt in global markets at any given time, that is a very high-risk game.

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From October 27, 2012 article titled Sovereign Environmental Risk by Achim Steiner and Susan Burns at the Project Syndicate website (see http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/natural-resourcesand-sovereign-credit-ratings-by-achim-steiner-and-susan-burns ) NAIROBI Until the global financial crisis erupted four years ago, sovereign bonds had traditionally been viewed as reliable, virtually risk-free investments. Since then, they have looked far less safe. And many observers within and outside the financial sector have begun to question the models upon which credit-rating agencies, investment firms, and others rely to price the risks tied to such securities. At the same time, it is increasingly obvious that any reform of risk models must factor in environmental implications and natural-resource scarcity. Indeed, a recent investment report underlined that the fall in prices in the twentieth century for 33 important commodities including aluminum, palm oil, and wheat has been entirely offset in the decade since 2002, when commodity prices tripled. It is likely that growing natural-resource scarcities are driving a paradigm shift, with potentially profound implications for economies and thus for sovereign-debt risk worldwide. Indeed, many countries are already experiencing an increase in import prices for biological resources. Financial markets can no longer overlook how ecosystems and the multitrillion-dollar services and products that they provide ranging from water supplies, carbon storage, and timber to the healthy soils needed for crop production underpin economic performance. In addition, we are living in a world in which over-exploitation of natural resources, unsustainable consumption, and the condition of many ecosystems have become incompatible with accelerating demographic growth, as the human population increases from seven billion today to well over nine billion by 2050. Studies such as the The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB), conducted on behalf of the G-8, have improved our understanding of the economic, ecological, and social value of the goods and services provided by ecosystems, and have proposed better methods for pricing them. Yet this new thinking has yet to influence significantly the behavior of bond investors and rating agencies. Some might assume that bond markets are shielded from the effects of climate change, ecosystem degradation, and water scarcity. With more than $40 trillion of sovereign debt in global markets at any given time, that is a very high-risk game. In order to address the gap between reality and perception, the United Nations Environment Program Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) and the Global Footprint Network (GFN), together with a number of institutional investors, investment managers, and information providers, have launched E-RISC, or Environmental Risk in Sovereign Credit analysis. The project will take center stage at a gathering of investors in London on November 19, providing an early glimpse of how environmental criteria can be factored into sovereign-risk models and hence into the credit ratings assigned to sovereign bonds. E-RISC highlights the situation in several countries including Brazil, France, India, Turkey, and Japan demonstrating how importers and exporters of natural resources such as timber, fish, and crops are being exposed to the increasing volatility that accompanies rising global resource scarcity. Indeed, the E43

RISC report estimates that a 10% variation in commodity prices can lead to changes in a countrys trade balance amounting to more than 0.5% of GDP. Meanwhile, the economic consequences of environmental degradation can be severe. The report estimates that a 10% reduction in the productive capacity of soils and freshwater areas alone could lead to a reduction in the trade balance equivalent to more than 4% of GDP. Clearly, environmental risks are potentially large enough to affect countries economies in ways that could influence their willingness or ability to repay sovereign debt. In addition, these risks vary widely across countries, including countries whose current credit ratings suggest similar levels of sovereign risk. This suggests that the findings and methodologies applied in the E-RISC project bring added value to traditional sovereign-risk analysis, by providing insights into relevant but currently unaccounted-for parameters. Credit-rating agencies, institutional investors, and asset managers are encouraged to see how such factors can be incorporated into their own risk models. The time has come for a better understanding of the connection between environmental and naturalresource risk and sovereign credit risk. Only then will investors, rating agencies, and governments be able to plan over the medium to long term with the knowledge needed to ensure long-term economic growth and stability.

H. A marginalization of the treasured wisdom associated with religious, spiritual, and moral traditions
1) The underlying assumption seemed to be that as research and rational reflection explained more and more of the world, religion would become and increasingly unnecessary part of human life. From Introduction to The American University in a Post Secular Age Edited by Douglas Jacobsen and Rhonda Jacobsen Oxford University Press USA February, 2008 (passage is from paragraph 1 of Introduction on p. ix) [Note: Many sections of this book are accessible by way of a Google Books preview.] For most of the 20th Century, and especially since the Second World War, higher education has been largely a secular enterprise. The goal of a collage or university education has been to provide students with scholarly ways of understanding both themselves and the world around them that required little or no appeal to God, religion, or the sacred. The underlying assumption seemed to be that as research and rational reflection explained more and more of the world, religion would become and increasingly unnecessary part of human life. Higher education prepares students for the future, and religion was not particularly relevant for the future as it was envisioned at most universities. 2) Unfortunately, the kind of economic growth which is most often being referred to includes a vast array of enterprises which require the continued exploitation of flaws and weaknesses in human nature, fragile ecosystems, and already significantly depleted natural resourcesand which are much of 44

the reason why cultures of violence, greed, and corruption have become so common that most people believe they are inevitable (see Section IV Cultures of Violence, Greed, Corruption, and Overindulgence). From An Eight Page Introduction to the IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment 2011-2012: Summary Report by Stefan Pasti, Founder and Outreach Coordinator, The Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative (at www.ipcri.net )(444 pages; January, 2012, with updates August, 2012) [In the IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment 2011-2012: Summary Report (at http://www.ipcri.net/IPCR_Critical_Challenges_Summary_Report.pdf )(see pages x-xvii) (confirmed October 19, 2012) Downside Risks Resulting from High Levels of Debt, Moral Blind Spots, and Limits to Growth Section VII The U.S. and many other countries will enter the next 15 to 20 years burdened by substantial public debt. (114 pages) includes two subsections: A. Some Important Considerations Associated with U.S. Debt and B. A Timeline of Articles on the European Debt Crisis, and Related Crises (articles from August 3, 2011January 5, 2012) (mostly excerpts, some whole articles; from Reuters,
Huffington Post, and other sources) [includes references to 94 articles, and a summary (chronological) list of article titles].

Again and again, in references to the debt crises, there is mention of the need for economic growth, so that there will be enough business income to pay salaries and wages, and pay down bank debt; so that there will be enough household income to cover expenses, and pay down consumer debt; and so that there will be enough tax revenues to cover the costs of public services, and pay down massive government debt. And there is the implication that without such economic growth there will be an increased risk of business failings, household bankruptcies, bank failings, and sovereign debt defaults. One important danger signal which is now flashing is the unwillingness of investors to buy enough of some governments long term bonds (which have in the past been considered risk-free investments at returns of around 2%) unless the return guaranteed is more than 7%. There are an increasing number of investors who are not confident about some government bondswho are worried about whether such bonds will actually have any significant value 10 years from now. Unfortunately, the kind of economic growth which is most often being referred to includes a vast array of enterprises which require the continued exploitation of flaws and weaknesses in human nature, fragile ecosystems, and already significantly depleted natural resourcesand which are much of the reason why cultures of violence, greed, and corruption have become so common that most people believe they are inevitable (see Section IV Cultures of Violence, Greed, Corruption, and Overindulgence). There is an increasing amount of evidence to support the realization that overcoming the challenges of our times will require problem solving on a scale most of us have never known beforeand that there is an urgent need to restructure our economic systems and our education systems to respond to these challenges. 3) And some of the challenges may be considered the result of a kind of spiritual sickness: people with clear opportunities for walking on a Great Road are instead greatly delighting in tortuous paths. (Draft) Section #7 A marginalization of the treasured wisdom associated with religious, spiritual, and moral traditions (Commentary piece) from the IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment 2011-2012 project (project page at http://www.ipcri.net/Critical-Challenges-Assessment.html ) by Stefan Pasti, 45

Founder and Outreach Coordinator, The Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative (at www.ipcri.net ) [actual Commentary document accessible at http://www.ipcri.net/Draft_Section__7_Commentary_Marginalization_of_Wisdom.pdf ](confirmed October 19, 2012) There may be times when people focus more on self-indulgence or self-enrichment, and there may be times when people focus more on the greater good of the whole. For much of our modern age, we collectivelyseem to have been at a crossroads, a crossroads which has at least something of the following four themes in it. a) For most of the 20th Century, and especially since the Second World War, higher education has been largely a secular enterprise. The goal of a college or university education has been to provide students with scholarly ways of understanding both themselves and the world around them that required little or no appeal to God, religion, or the sacred. The underlying assumption seemed to be that as research and rational reflection explained more and more of the world, religion would become and increasingly unnecessary part of human life. Higher education prepares students for the future, and religion was not particularly relevant for the future as it was envisioned at most universities. (from introduction to The American University in a Postsecular Age) b) Were I to have the least bit of knowledge, in walking on a Great Road, its only going astray that I would fear. The Great Way is very level; but people greatly delight in tortuous paths. (Lao Tzu) c) As a result of the unprecedented opportunities created by the expansion of the Internet, we have now arrived at a very auspicious moment in time for at no other time in the course of history has so many people had access to so much in the way of time-tested guidelines, inspiring role models, and service-oriented initiatives relevant to peace, prosperity, and happiness for all humanity. d) One of the most persistent ironies in life is that with so many opportunities to provide real assistance to fellow human beingsand with the potential for such assistance to result in happiness to those who extend help as well as to those who receive itthere are still many, many people in this world who cannot find a way to earn a living providing such assistance. Some of the challenges of our times are at the very core of the difficulty of being human beings, and are challenges which people have faced since the beginning of time. Some of the challenges are circumstantial: during times when there is much prosperity many people may not recognize these fields of activity as problematic and yet, such activities may contribute much to the persistent irony mentioned above. And some of the challenges may be considered the result of a kind of spiritual sickness: people with clear opportunities for walking on a Great Road are instead greatly delighting in tortuous paths. This writer believes it is becoming more and more likely that an exponential increase in compassion for our fellow human beings will need to become an essential and critical element of a truly comprehensive response to the challenges of our times. In such circumstances, we cannot afford to exclude from our tool box the time-tested sources which have helped people learn compassion over many centuries. What we need to do instead is to learn how to cultivate the time-tested sources so that the sources yield the treasured wisdom. 46

4) If many people can learn to find contentment and quality of life while consuming much less, this limiting of desires at the root will save much trouble trying to respond to the symptoms as they materialize worldwide. This is part of the spiritual teachings element which often gets overlooked. From Section F. of the IPCR document Spiritual Peacebuilding: 47 Quotes and Proverbs by Stefan Pasti, Founder and Outreach Coordinator, The Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative (at www.ipcri.net ) (accessible at http://www.ipcri.net/Spiritual-Peacebuilding--47Quotations-and-Proverb.pdf ) (Note: Sources for quotes can be found in the original document)(confirmed October 19, 2012) a) A wise person notices that inner harmony is disturbed when the mind lets itself be lured into indiscriminately sampling the world of phenomena. b) The energy invested in a particular thing, during its life from cradle to grave, is called the embodied energy of that object. The amount of embodied energy that an item contains depends on the technology used to create it (the origin of materials inputs, how they were created and transported, etc.), the nature of the production system, and the distance the item travels from inception to purchase. c) every article in the bazaar has moral and spiritual values attached to it hence it behooves us to enquire into the antecedents of every article we buy. (Yet this) is an arduous task, and it becomes almost impossible for ordinary persons to undertake it when the article comes from far off countries. d) If we feel it is beyond us to guarantee the concomitant results of all our transactions, it necessarily follows that we must limit our transactions to a circle well within our control. This is the bed rock of swadeshi. The smaller the circumference, the more accurately can we guage the results of our actions, and (the) more conscientiously shall we be able to fulfill our obligations as trustees. e) By supporting items and processes that have lower embodied energy, as well as the companies that produce them, consumers can significantly reduce societys energy use. f) The second law of thermodynamics efficiency is often defined as follows: the efficiency is equal to the ratio of the least available work that could have done the job to the actual available work used to do the job. i) If many people can learn to find contentment and quality of life while consuming much less, this limiting of desires at the root will save much trouble trying to respond to the symptoms as they materialize worldwide. This is part of the spiritual teachings element which often gets overlooked. 5) And what is possible along the lines of wisdom and compassion? (Draft) Section #7 A marginalization of the treasured wisdom associated with religious, spiritual, and moral traditions (Commentary piece) from the IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment 2011-2012 project (project page at http://www.ipcri.net/Critical-Challenges-Assessment.html ) by Stefan Pasti, Founder and Outreach Coordinator, The Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative (at www.ipcri.net ) [actual Commentary document accessible at http://www.ipcri.net/Draft_Section__7_Commentary_Marginalization_of_Wisdom.pdf ](confirmed October 19,2012) 47

The challenges of our times are such that it is now critical for us to access the storehouses of wisdom and compassion which have accumulated over the many centuries of human experience, and which have been confirmed again and again as essential to individual well-being and social harmony by the saints, sages, spiritual leaders, and sincere practitioners of all religious, spiritual, and moral traditions. Many people may think it is nave to imagine that people from so many diverse religious, spiritual, moral, and cultural traditions can decide to come together in such a way as to not only encourage, but participate in, a high percentage of constructive thinking and constructive action in response to the difficult challenges ahead (as in the high levels of participation encouraged by comprehensive Community Visioning Initiatives). From this writers point of view, such skepticism and cynicism depend for their existence on doubts as to whether it is possible for people to achieve highly advanced forms of wisdom and compassion through genuine instruction and sincere effort. Thus it is that there is a great responsibility on those people who are in any way representatives of religious, spiritual, and/or moral traditionsto demonstrate what is possible along the lines of wisdom and compassion, to provide genuine instruction when sincere efforts are being made, to contribute to the greater good of the whole, and to help restore confidence in the higher values of life. And what is possible along the lines of wisdom and compassion? How many of us would say that we are fully aware of what is possible along the lines of wisdom and compassion? What would the everyday circumstances of our community life be like if many of us were fully aware of what is possible along the lines of wisdom and compassion? Many of us could be much more familiar with what is possible unfortunately, much of the real treasured wisdom of religious, spiritual, and moral traditions now seems to be hiddenand thus in need of being re-discovered. These hidden resources include teachings which inspire and encourage people to a) place a high priority on the development of truth, virtue, love, and peaceand live disciplined lives for the purpose of adhering to truth, cultivating virtue and love, and maintaining the pathways to enduring peace b) sacrifice personal desires for the greater good of the whole c) find contentment and quality of life while consuming less material goods and ecological services d) prefer peacebuilding which supports and actualizes mutually beneficial understandings, forgiveness, and reconciliationand which abstains from violent conflict resolutionas a way of bringing cycles of violence to an end e) use resources carefully, so that there is surplus available for emergency assistance f) support community life and cultural traditions which bring to the fore what is often hidden: how many good people there are, how many ways there are to do good, and how much happiness comes to those who extend help, as well as to those who receive it. In other words, this writer believes that human morality is not a constantit is not something which is the same throughout the centuries of human existence; and thus it is something which can become degraded or raised up, depending on the leanings of human aspirations.

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I. Global inequities and the tragic cycles of malnutrition, disease, and death
1) The United States currently has 5 percent of the worlds population, but uses 25 percent of the worlds annual energy production. From an Army Corps of Engineers Report (Engineer Research and Development Center) titled Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations Donald F. Fournier and Eileen T. Westervelt September 2005 Accessible from the energycrisis.org website (in section Issues subsection Security of the Executive Summary (p. 5); see http://www.energycrisis.org/us/army/EnergyTrends2005.pdf ) (Confirmed April 3, 2011) (Note: quoted by Roscoe Bartlett, Congressman, House of Representatives (RMD) (USA) in his March 14, 2006 special presentation) (not currently accessible) (Report Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations also accessible from the website of Congressman Bartlett (see http://www.bartlett.house.gov/uploadedfiles/U.S.%20Army%20Corp%20of%20EngineersEnergy%20Report.pdf ) (Confirmed April 3, 2011) The United States currently has 5 percent of the worlds population, but uses 25 percent of the worlds annual energy production. This disproportionate consumption of energy relative to global consumption causes loss of the worlds good will and provides a context for potential military conflicts, at the cost of lives, money, and political capital. A more equitable distribution of resources is in our best interest for a peaceful future. 2) The world is facing a hunger crisis unlike anything it has seen in more than 50 years. a) From the Bread for the World website, in the section Faces of Hunger, and the subsection Global Hunger (at http://www.bread.org/hunger/global/ ) (paragraph 1-4)(confirmed July 31, 2011) The world is facing a hunger crisis unlike anything it has seen in more than 50 years. 925 million people are hungry. Every day, almost 16,000 children die from hunger-related causes. That's one child every five seconds. There were 1.4 billion people in extreme poverty in 2005. The World Bank estimates that the spike in global food prices in 2008, followed by the global economic recession in 2009 and 2010 has pushed between 100-150 million people into poverty. b) From the Bread for the World website, in the section Faces of Hunger, the subsection Global Hunger (at http://www.bread.org/hunger/global/ ) the subsection Hunger and Poverty Facts/and the subsection Malnutrition (bullet #1) In 2008, nearly 9 million children died before they reached their fifth birthday. One third of these deaths are due directly or indirectly to hunger and malnutrition. Malnutrition is not having enough nourishing food, with adequate amounts of protein, vitamins, minerals and calories to support physical and mental growth and development. Children who survive early childhood malnutrition suffer irreversible harmincluding poor physical growth, compromised immune function, and impaired cognitive ability. 49

3) A striking feature of all these reports is the lack of recognition of the past, present and possible future role of local organisations in meeting fundamental human needs and sustaining the environment. From Towards Food Sovereignty: Reclaiming Autonomous Food Systems by Michel Pimbert (a very important source) Accessible from IIED website (International Institute for Environment and Development) London UK 2009 (see Table of Contents and downloadable chapters at http://www.iied.org/towards-food-sovereignty-reclaiming-autonomous-food-systems ; book incomplete, only some chapters accessible) (in Chapter 4.6 The need to strengthen local organisations for food sovereignty, p. 51) The international community and governments have recently produced a number of global assessments on increasing malnutrition and food insecurity, the widening gap between the rich and poor, climate change, biodiversity loss and the collapse of ecosystem goods and services (MA, 2005; FAO, 2007; UNDP, 2008; IPCC, 2007). A striking feature of all these reports is the lack of recognition of the past, present and possible future role of local organisations in meeting fundamental human needs and sustaining the environment. Moreover, proposals for corrective action and policy responses to these multiple crisis mainly call either for more market or more technocratic state interventions. Citizens and their local organisations are barely mentioned in this context. The exclusion of indigenous peoples from the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is typical of this trend (Box 4.20). 4) Yet many of the local organisations that are central to poverty reduction and environmental sustainability are those that are formed and managed by low-income householdsfor instance subsistence farmer organisations, co-operatives of women food processors, savings and credit groups, and the federations formed by the rural and urban poor. From Towards Food Sovereignty: Reclaiming Autonomous Food Systems by Michel Pimbert (a very important source) Accessible from IIED website (International Institute for Environment and Development) London UK 2009 (see Table of Contents and downloadable chapters at http://www.iied.org/towards-food-sovereignty-reclaiming-autonomous-food-systems ; book incomplete, only some chapters accessible) (in Chapter 4.6 The need to strengthen local organisations for food sovereignty, p. 51 and p. 53) Reflecting on the lack of attention given to local organisations in the MDG process, the editors of a recent critical report (Bigg and Satterthwaite, 2005) argue that: Most of the local organisations that benefit and represent poorer groups are invisible to development assistance. Yet many of the local organisations that are central to poverty reduction and environmental sustainability are those that are formed and managed by low-income householdsfor instance subsistence farmer organisations, co-operatives of women food processors, savings and credit groups, and the federations formed by the rural and urban poor. The problem is not that pro-poor, representative organisations do not exist but that they are so often invisible to external experts and international agencies. 50

5) The exclusion of local organisations from shaping the future thus leads to a neglect of different ways of satisfying human needs. Many rural and urban development schemes have overlooked the importance of locally specific ways of meeting needs for food, health, shelter, energy, education and other fundamental human needs. From Towards Food Sovereignty: Reclaiming Autonomous Food Systems by Michel Pimbert (a very important source) Accessible from IIED website (International Institute for Environment and Development) London UK 2009 (see Table of Contents and downloadable chapters at http://www.iied.org/towards-food-sovereignty-reclaiming-autonomous-food-systems ; book incomplete, only some chapters accessible) (in Chapter 4.6 The need to strengthen local organisations for food sovereignty, p. 55) For Bigg and Satterthwaite, securing the MDGs is best done when local organisations are fully involved in environment and development. However, local organisations can do much more than simply enhance the efficiency with which the MDGs are met. Through the voice and agency of their members, local organizations can indeed challenge dominant development paradigms, offering radically different definitions of the good life and sustainable living. By building on their knowledge, aspirations, values and cosmovisions, local organisations often end up questioning the fundamental assumptions behind the MDGs by offering alternative definitions of human well-being. Indeed, many organisations of food providers explicitly or implicitly challenge the deep rooted belief in development as an ever increasing commodification of nature and social relations (Rist, 1997). However, there are few safe policy spaces where these local organisations can deconstruct the assumptions of development thinking. As a result, the usual Western hegemonic programme, cloaked in the name of universalism, prevails (Rist, 1997 and 2006). The exclusion of local organisations from shaping the future thus leads to a neglect of different ways of satisfying human needs. Many rural and urban development schemes have overlooked the importance of locally specific ways of meeting needs for food, health, shelter, energy, education and other fundamental human needs. Non-local professionals and planners all too often fail to see the difference between fundamental human needs and the ways and means of satisfying these needs. Whilst fundamental human needs are universal, their satisfiers vary according to culture, region and historical conditions (Max-Neef, 1989). Despite some remarkable exceptions, agricultural developments, resettlement housing for displaced people, healthcare, changes in tenure laws and other externally-driven activities have, implicitly or explicitly, adopted the dominant cultural model of industrial society. In industrial societies fundamental human needs are almost exclusively catered for by satisfiers that must be bought in the market and/or produced industrially. 6) the sad fact is that very few if any of these land investments benefit local people or help to fight hunger. Two thirds of agricultural land deals by foreign investors are in countries with a serious hunger problem. Yet perversely, precious little of this land is being used to feed people in those countries.

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From Introduction to Oxfam Briefing Note Our Land, Our Lives: Time Out on the Global Land Rush Oxfam International October, 2012 (26 pages) (see p. 2)(accessible for free download at http://www.oxfam.org/en/grow/policy/%E2%80%98our-land-our-lives%E2%80%99 ) Today, stories of communities driven from their lands, often at the barrel of a gun, left destitute and unable to feed their families, have become all too familiar. As the scale and pace of large-scale land acquisitions increases globally, evidence is mounting that the land rush is out of control and that the price being paid by affected communities is unacceptably high. A huge amount of land has been sold off or leased out globally in the past decade: an area eight times the size of the UK. In poor countries, foreign investors bought up an area of land the size of London every six days between 2000 and 2010. Commercial interest in land could accelerate once again as recent food price spikes motivate rich countries to secure their own food supplies and make land a more secure and attractive option for investors and speculators. The 2008 boom in food prices is widely recognized as having triggered a surge in investor interest in land: from mid-20082009 reported agricultural land deals by foreign investors in developing countries rocketed by around 200 per cent. Oxfam backs greater investment in agriculture and increased support to small-scale food producers. Responsible investment and support is vital and poor countries desperately need it. Indeed Oxfams calculations suggest that the land acquired between 2000 and 2010 has the potential to feed a billion people, equivalent to the number of people who currently go to bed hungry each night. But the sad fact is that very few if any of these land investments benefit local people or help to fight hunger. Two thirds of agricultural land deals by foreign investors are in countries with a serious hunger problem. Yet perversely, precious little of this land is being used to feed people in those countries, or going into local markets where it is desperately needed. Instead, the land is either being left idle, as speculators wait for its value to increase and then sell it at a profit, or it is predominantly used to grow crops for export, often for use as biofuels. About two-thirds of foreign land investors in developing countries intend to export everything they produce on the land. Africa has borne the brunt of this, with an area the size of Kenya acquired for agriculture by foreign investors in just ten years, but the experience on other continents is similar. World Bank and IMF research has shown that most of the land being sold off is in the poorest countries with the weakest protection of people's land rights. More than 30 per cent of the land in Liberia has been handed out in large-scale concessions in the past five years, often with disastrous results for local people. In Cambodia, NGOs estimate that an area equivalent to between 56 and 63 per cent of all arable land in the country has been handed out to private companies. In Honduras, the toll of people killed in a land conflict in the Bajo Agun region has risen to over 60, and shows no sign of stopping. 7) With another big jump in grain prices, we could see a breakdown in the world food supply system. If countries give in to the temptation to restrict exports, some lower-income importing countries might not be able to import any grain at all. When could this happen? We are not talking about the distant future. It could be anytime. 52

From Chapter 1 Food: The Weak Link in Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity (Book Chapter) by Lester Brown (at http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-09-17/full-planetempty-plates-new-geopolitics-food-scarcity-new-book-chapter ) (only chapter accessible for free; full Table of Contents, Press Release, etc at http://www.earth-policy.org/books/fpep ) (paragraphs 1, 2, 12, 19-21, 37-39)(confirmed October 19, 2012) The world is in transition from an era of food abundance to one of scarcity. Over the last decade, world grain reserves have fallen by one third. World food prices have more than doubled, triggering a worldwide land rush and ushering in a new geopolitics of food. The abrupt rise in world grain prices between 2007 and 2008 left more people hungry than at any time in history. Today the temptation for exporting countries to restrict exports in order to dampen domestic food price rises is greater than ever. With another big jump in grain prices, we could see a breakdown in the world food supply system. If countries give in to the temptation to restrict exports, some lower-income importing countries might not be able to import any grain at all. When could this happen? We are not talking about the distant future. It could be anytime. As a result of chronic hunger, 48 percent of all children in India are stunted physically and mentally. They are undersized, underweight, and likely to have IQs that are on average 1015 points lower than those of well-nourished children. In early 2012, Adam Nossiter wrote in the New York Times about the effect of high food prices in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where hunger is common. Interviewing individual families in Kinshasa, he noted that three years ago everyone ate at least one meal a day. But today even families with both parents working often cannot afford to eat every day. It is now a given in many households that some days will be foodless, days when they will not eat at all. Selecting the days when they will not eat is a weekly routine. The international charity Save the Children commissioned detailed surveys in five countriesIndia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Peru, and Bangladeshto see how people were dealing with rising food prices. Among other things, they learned that 24 percent of families in India now have foodless days. For Nigeria, the comparable figure is 27 percent. For Peru it is 14 percent. Family size plays an important role in hunger. Almost one third of large families in all countries surveyed have foodless days.. .Fearing they might not be able to buy needed grain from the market, some of the more affluent countries, led by Saudi Arabia, China, and South Korea, then took the unusual step of buying or leasing land long term in other countries on which to grow food for themselves. These land acquisitions have since grown rapidly in number. Most of them are in Africa. Among the principal destinations for land hunters are Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan, each of them countries where millions of people are being sustained with food donations from the U.N. World Food Programme. As of mid-2012, hundreds of land acquisition deals had been negotiated or were under negotiation, some of them exceeding a million acres. A 2011 World Bank analysis of these land grabs reported that at least 140 million acres were involvedan area that exceeds the cropland devoted to corn and wheat combined in the United States. This onslaught of land acquisitions has become a land rush as 53

governments, agribusiness firms, and private investors seek control of land wherever they can find it. Such acquisitions also typically involve water rights, meaning that land grabs potentially affect downstream countries as well. Any water extracted from the upper Nile River basin to irrigate newly planted crops in Ethiopia, Sudan, or South Sudan, for instance, will now not reach Egypt, upending the delicate water politics of the Nile by adding new countries that Egypt must compete with for water. The potential for conflict is high. Many of the land deals have been made in secret, and much of the time the land involved was already being farmed by villagers when it was sold or leased. Often those already farming the land were neither consulted nor even informed of the new arrangements. And because there typically are no formal land titles in many developing-country villages, the farmers who lost their land have had little support for bringing their cases to court.

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Appendix A
About the Evidence in This Many Danger Signs Flashing Red Document
In this Many Danger Signs Flashing Red Document, some of the key evidence which has formed my views about the challenges of our times is organized into a quick reference format. This evidence is associated with issues that require some sifting of very complex information, which by its nature must be considered incomplete at best. Therefore, what is provided as evidence is simply offered as starting points for readers who have not yet explored these issues in depthand as an indication of the kind of sources this writer regards as trustworthy and reliable. One important question, which I considered very carefully when evaluating information (from websites, articles, etc.), is: Why is this source providing this information? I am most inclined to regard information as trustworthy and reliable a) if the source of the information has been working for a long time in their field of activity b) if the source of the information is highly regarded in their field of activity c) if the source of the information is clearly trying to respectfully provide good service to their fellow human beings, and contribute to the greater good of the whole. Sometimes intuition has to suggest conclusions which cannot be proved by rational, intellectual analysis. What I have tried to do with the complex information I have discovered through research is to identify key dots in the big picture, and then use my intuition to extrapolate on that information as in Where is all this going? And my general conclusion is that the evidence suggests there are many danger signs flashing red now, and we are headed towards disaster on many levels if we do not change course. Yes, most of the challenges identified in this Many Danger Signs Flashing Now document are very complex; and thus it will be best if people making decisions at the local community level sift through some of the evidence (with the help of workshops, meetings, etc at neighborhood Community Teaching and Learning Centers, and with the assistance of local teacher-leaders). But their motive for sifting through some of the evidence need not be understood as part of studying for a Ph.D on the subject, or as part of deciding how to vote for a particular candidate in elections. From the point of view of someone who advocates for Community Visioning Initiatives supported by many neighborhood-level Community Teaching and Learning Centers, it would be best if their motive was so they can make informed decisions regarding how they invest their time, energy, and money in the everyday circumstances of their daily lives. There are sources of information which are clearly trying to persuade people to support a particular agenda without encouraging them to arrive at an independent assessment, and without suggesting that the issues are complex and some time may be required to arrive at an independent assessment. And there are people who use irresponsible and disrespectful language in ways which do not suggest that their motive is to respectfully provide good service to their fellow human beings, and contribute to the greater good of the whole. I believe that a significant degree of consensus will be needed to resolve many of the complex challenges ahead. Somehow or other, we need to sort through information associated with these complex challenges, and we need to do so in a way that helps us to realize how much we need to be learning so that we can be part of the solutions and how much we really need to be on the same side, helping each other. That we need to be on the same side helping each other is one of the reasons why I am advocating for widespread use of Community Visioning Initiatives, supported by many neighborhood-level Community Teaching and Learning Centers.

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Appendix B
New Approach to Collaborative Problem Solving and Citizen Peacebuilding
(being introduced by two companion websites and four key documents)

The websites, the documents, and the approach We are in uncharted territory, for there is no culture or association of societies that ever existed on planet Earth which has had to resolve the kind of challenges the next few generations of people will have to resolve [see A List of Ten Critical Challenges (also accessible from the last page of all four key documents below) and the longer Table of Contents for Many Dangers Signs Flashing Red]. This introduction provides an overview of an approach to collaborative problem solving and citizen peacebuilding which emphasizes Community Visioning Initiatives and Community Teaching and Learning Centers. The websites which are introducing this new and comprehensive approach to collaborative problem solving and citizen peacebuilding are: 1) Community Visioning Initiatives Clearinghouse (at www.cviclearinghouse.net ) 2) Community Teaching and Learning Centers Clearinghouse (at www.ctlcclearinghouse.net ) The clearinghouse part of the titles emphasizes that these websites can serve as gathering points for information, resources, model project case studies, and best practices which are contributions to realizing the potential of these problem solving and peacebuilding processes. In addition, each website has a Discussion Forum which can serve as an aggregator for related resources, shared experiences, and thoughtful discussion about the documents below, the 125 Related Fields of Activity, (some of which are listed on the left side of the clearinghouse webpages), and any other topics which will be helpful to resolving the critical challenge ahead. The key documents associated with this new and comprehensive approach to collaborative problem solving and citizen peacebuilding are: 1. 2. 3. 4. "Many Danger Signs Flashing Red" (62 pages) (Nov. 2012) "The Potential of Community Visioning Initiatives (in 105 pages)" (Nov., 2012) "The Potential of Community Teaching and Learning Centers (in 65 pages) (Nov., 2012) "Key Organizations, Initiatives, and Insights" (146 pages) (Nov., 2012)

This writer advocates for a combination of preliminary surveys to 150 local leaders (as preparation for Community Visioning Initiatives), time-intensive Community Visioning Initiatives supported by many Community Teaching and Learning Centers (offering workshops suggested by the preliminary surveys), and sister community relationships as a way of creating local community specific and regional specific constellations of initiatives responses to the challenges of our times.

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About Community Visioning Initiatives (CVIs) Community Visioning Initiatives can be described as a series of community meetings designed to facilitate the process of brainstorming ideas, organizing the ideas into goals, prioritizing the goals, and identifying doable steps. One of the main goals of Community Visioning Initiatives is to maximize citizen participation in identifying challenges, and in solution-oriented activity. One very important advantage of the Community Visioning Initiatives kind of approach to collaborative problem solving is that it does not set out a preexisting set of goalsorganizers would be believing that the urgency and awareness that needs to come will come, and would be focusing more on building a collaborative problem solving approach which people with many different backgrounds and agendas could believe in could believe will make best use of the knowledge and skills each person has to contribute. The document The Potential of Community Visioning Initiatives (in 105 pages) provides a detailed 15 Step Outline for a Community Visioning Initiative (see Appendix B), and the Community Visioning Initiatives Clearinghouse website provides a section for Model Project Case Studiesand a Discussion Forum for the exchange of information, experiences, and resources. The Community Visioning Initiative approach to collaborative problem solving and citizen peacebuilding (supplemented by many Community Teaching and Learning Centers) emphasizes personal and civic responsibility, maximizing citizen participation in identifying challenges and solution-oriented activity, giving people an opportunity to become actively involved in a solution-charged environment, and minimizing the risk of transformation unemployment; and is especially appropriate to the building of close-knit communities of people communities with a healthy appreciation for each others strengths, communities with a well-developed capacity to resolve even the most difficult challenges and communities which demonstrate a high level of compassion for their fellow human beings. About Community Teaching and Learning Centers (CTLCs) Yes, most of the challenges ahead are very complex, and thus it will be best if people making decisions at the local community level sift through some of the evidence (with the assistance of local teacherleaders). But their motive for sifting through some of the evidence need not be understood as part of studying for a Ph.D on the subject, or as part of deciding how to vote for a particular candidate in elections. From this writers point of view, it would be best if their motive was so they can make informed decisions regarding how they invest their time, energy, and money in the everyday circumstances of their daily lives. Consider carefully the following observations: The ways we invest our time, energy, and money have a direct impact on the ways of earning a living that are available. The investments of time, energy, and money that each of us make in our everyday circumstances becomes the larger economy.

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People who are not sufficiently informed about critical issues are everywhere, and they are investing their time, energy, and moneyvotingall the time. The absolute necessity for citizens from every variety of circumstances to become more aware of the consequences of all the little events in their everyday community life will require an exponential increase in neighborhood accessible education centers, and an exponential increase in affordable workshops. As a multi-purpose support center for implementing Community Visioning Initiatives (CVIs), Community Teaching and Learning Centers can function as 1) information centers, resource centers, and clearinghouses (on how residents can deliberately channel their time, energy, and money into the creation of ways of earning a living which are directly related to resolving high priority challenges) 2) locations for workshops on topics suggested by the Preliminary Survey (see Step 3 in A 15 Step Outline for a Community Visioning Initiative), and as determined by the Community Teaching and Learning Center Coordinator 3) practice sites for the development of teacher-leaders 4) community centers for meetings, both planned and informal It is possible to imagine workshops being offered at a rate of $100 for a 2 hour workshop (Note: This example is scaled for readers in the United Statescost and currency would vary according to the country participating), with the number of teachers and participants varying. An important part of cost accessibility is that as the number of participants goes up (towards a reasonable limit) the cost per participant would go down. Thus, if there were two teachers and 25 participants for a two hour workshop, the participants would only pay $4 each, and the teachers would earn $50 each. (And even the $4 cost to the participants could be paid in local currency, if there was a process by which residents could earn local currency by making solution-appropriate investments of time, energy, and money in their local community.) The CTLC Clearinghouse website recognizes that creating the knowledge base, skill sets, and the compassion for our fellow human beings necessary to resolve the challenges of our times will require encouraging as much formal and informal meetings with other people in the local neighborhoods for discussion, information sharing, mutual support and encouragement, fellowship and friendshipso that the result will include the building of a close-knit community of people with a healthy appreciation for each others strengths, and a well developed capacity to resolve even the most difficult challenges. The Community Teaching and Learning Centers Clearinghouse website will eventually provide links to educational material on 125 Related Fields of Activityand currently provides a section for Best Practices Examples, and a Discussion Forum for the exchange of information, experiences, and resources. Time-intensive Community Visioning Initiatives, supported by many Community Teaching and Learning Centers, are one way people at the local community level can learn how to make wise choices about how they use their time, energy, and money so that all the little events in the circumstance of 58

everyday community life have a positive and cumulative effect on the challenges they have identified as priority challenges. Document Key Organizations, Initiatives, and Insights highlights potential linkages The absolute necessity for an exponential increase in neighborhood accessible education centers, and an exponential increase in affordable workshops, requires an understanding of people and organizations who have already been working on appropriate responses to the critical challenges of our timesand how such people and organizations can link together to form meaningful collaborations. The Key Organizations, Initiatives, and Insights document (146 pages) provides much detailed information which can help people to the conclusion that we have the resources necessary to overcome the challenge of our times. The detailed Table of Contents is offered as a kind of Executive Summary of important resources and potential linkages. Here are some excerpts from the Key Organizations. document which highlight important resources and potential linkages: Gaia Education--Since 2006 Gaia Education has successfully supported the delivery of more than 135 programmes on five continents. La Via Campesina--.La Via Campesina launched the idea of food sovereignty at the World Summit on Food 1996. La Via Campesina comprises about 150 local and national organizations in 70 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas. In all, it is about 200 million farmers and peasants. Oxfam--Oxfam is an international confederation of 17 organizations networked together in more than 90 countries, as part of a global movement for change, to build a future free from the injustice of poverty. Women in the Marketplace--The results show a clear opportunity to harness the immense power of the individual, in particular women who make the majority of the decisions about the food their families eat and control around $12 trillion or 65% of the worlds annual consumer spending. (From Food Transformation: Harnessing Consumer Power to Create a Fair Food FutureOxfam) Sustainable and Responsible Investing--Sustainable and Responsible Investing (SRI) is a broad-based approach to investing that now encompasses an estimated $3.07 trillion out of $25.2 trillion in the U.S. investment marketplace today. Fairtrade--There are now 827 Fairtrade certified producer organizations in 58 producing countries, representing over 1.2 million farmers and workers. BALLE--The Business Alliance for Local Living Economies(BALLE) is a growing North American alliance of nearly 60 fully autonomous local business networks with their own names, missions, and initiatives, representing about 20,000 US and Canadian entrepreneurs.

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Berkshares--Launched in the fall of 2006, BerkShares had a robust initiation, with over one million BerkShares having been circulated in the first nine months and over 2.7 million to date. Currently, more than four hundred businesses have signed up to accept the currency. Doctors Without Borders/Mdecins Sans Frontires (MSF)--provides emergency medical care to millions of people caught in crises in nearly 60 countries around the world. Religions for Peace (and the Global Network of Women and Faith)--recognizes that women of faith around the world have enormous capacities for leadership and effective action in all areas of human development.. At present, the Global Network of Women and Faith includes more than 1,000 Buddhist, Christian, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Indigenous, Sikh and Zoroastrian religious womens organizations. United Religions Initiative--Since the signing of our charter in 2000, we have touched the lives of millions of people of different faiths around the world through a network of 527 interfaith Cooperation Circles (CCs), whose members number half a million. Sister Cities International--The organizations global network is comprised of 600 U.S. cities partnered with 2,000 communities in 136 countries. At over 59 million, teachers are the largest group of trained professionals in the world. As transmitters of knowledge and community leaders, teachers are powerful catalysts for lasting global change. Global Fund for Women--Since its inception in 1987, the Global Fund has granted over $93 million to more than 4,400 women's groups in 172 countries. Workshops at Community Teaching and Learning Centers can focus on subject matter identified as critically important by preliminary surveys (to 150 local leaders). Workshop curriculum contributed by (for example) Gaia Education, BALLE, Fairtrade, Oxfam, Doctors Without Borders, United Religions Initiative, Global Network for Women of Faith, Sister Cities International etc. can guide Socially Responsible and Sustainable Investing, and can lead to a careful and deliberate channeling of time, energy, and money in the marketplaceto support Community Visioning Initiatives, Community Teaching and Learning Centers, local currencies, Food Sovereignty, Ecovillages, and a just transition from dysfunctional systems which are very complex to functioning systems which are much less complex. In addition, one aspect of this just transition can be that people who do deliberately focus their investments of time, energy, and money towards solutions identified by the Community Visioning Initiative being carried out in their community may receive, as encouragement, local currency. (Since local currencies are only accepted within the community, their usage encourages the purchase of locally-produced and locally-available goods and service.) The Key Organizations, Initiatives, and Insights document includes the following Sections in the Table of Contents (see number 1); and a list of 125 Related Fields of Activity is included in the Appendices (see number 2 below for a sampling of those related fields of activity). 1) Preliminary Surveys (as Preparation for Community Visioning Initiatives); Community Visioning Initiatives; Community Teaching and Learning Centers; Ecovillage Design Education and Permaculture; 60

Food Sovereignty; Socially Responsible Investing; International Human Service Organizations; Interfaith Peacebuildng; Sister Community Relationships; Key International Funding Networks; Inspiring Role Models 2) Agrarian Reform, Alleviating Hunger, Alternative Gifts, Apprenticeships, Appropriate Technology, Carbon Footprint, Child Sponsorship, Community Economics, Community Land Trusts, Community Supported Agriculture, Community Visioning Initiatives, Composting Toilets, Cradle to Cradle, Ecovillages, Fair Trade, Food Autonomy, Food Co-ops, Holistic Health Care, Inspiring Role Models, Job Fairs, Local Currency, Local Stock Exchanges, Open Courseware, Permaculture, Questionnaire Development, Renewable Energy, School-Business Partnerships, Service Learning, Sister Communities, Socially Responsible Investing, Swadeshi, Village Industries, Water Supply and Management, Women's Rights, Zero Waste Concluding Comments The Community Visioning Initiative approach to collaborative problem solving and citizen peacebuilding (supplemented by many Community Teaching and Learning Centers) emphasizes personal and civic responsibility, maximizing citizen participation in identifying challenges and solution-oriented activity, giving people an opportunity to become actively involved in a solution-charged environment, and minimizing the risk of transformation unemployment; and is especially appropriate to the building of close-knit communities of people communities with a healthy appreciation for each others strengths, communities with a well-developed capacity to resolve even the most difficult challenges and communities which demonstrate a high level of compassion for their fellow human beings. The websites which are introducing this new and comprehensive approach to collaborative problem solving and citizen peacebuilding are: 1) Community Visioning Initiatives Clearinghouse (at www.cviclearinghouse.net ) 2) Community Teaching and Learning Centers Clearinghouse (at www.ctlcclearinghouse.net ) The sharing of Community Visioning Initiative experiences and Community Teaching and Learning Center experiences through the clearinghouse websites would be a key (if we will use it) to making the most of learning experiences worldwideand such sharing would surely contribute much to transforming the many challenges ahead into inspiring experiences of collaboration, peacebuilding, and community revitalization. If many people could see and feel the practical value of carrying out similar forms of Community Visioning Initiatives, such collaborative, solution-oriented activity could become a common experience a common cultural tradition a cultural tradition which can link many diverse communities of people together, in a fellowship of people working towards the greater good of the whole and a cultural tradition which can help pass on to future generations the best ideas humans have accumulated in more than 5,000 years of human history.

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Appendix C The IPCR Initiative List of Ten Critical Challenges


(supported by evidence gathered in IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment 2011-2012 project)
(webpage for Assessment project at http://www.ipcri.net/Critical-Challenges-Assessment.html )

(supporting evidence summarized in the IPCR Initiative document IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment 2011-2012: Summary Report)

1. Global warming and reducing carbon emissions 2. Cultures of violence, greed, corruption, and overindulgencewhich have become so common that
many of us accept such as inevitable; which are a significant part of the current crises of confidence in financial markets; and which are in many ways slowing the restructuring of investment priorities needed to respond to an increasing number of other critical challenges

3. The end of the era of cheap energy (particularly in reference to peak oil) 4. The increasing world population and its implications relating to widespread resource depletion (with
special focus on the increasing number of people who are consuming material goods and ecological resources indiscriminately)

5. Current trends indicate that we are creating more and more urban agglomerations (cities with a
population of more than 1 million peoplemore than 400), which require more and more complex and energy intensive infrastructures, where it is more and more difficult to trace the consequences of our individuals investments of time, energy, and moneyand which are the least appropriate models when it comes to implementing resolutions to many of the other challenges in this ten point assessment

6. The U.S. and many other countries will enter the next 15 to 20 years burdened by substantial public debt, possibly leading to higher interest rates, higher taxes, and tighter credit 7. A marginalization of the treasured wisdom associated with religious, spiritual, and moral traditions 8. Global inequities and the tragic cycles of malnutrition, disease, and death 9. Community building associated with responding to the above eight challenges may or may not be accompanied by an exponential increase in compassion for our fellow human beings. In such
circumstances, shortages of goodwill in times of unprecedented transition could tilt already precarious systems into further disarray, and thus erode established systems in even the most stable communities and regions

10. Sorting out what are real challenges and what are sound and practical solutions is becoming more and more difficult, as there are now, in most communities of the world, a multitude of ideas of all kinds coming
to the fore in personal, family, community, and cultural lifeall at the same time. Thus, even analysis supported by much credible evidencethat there are many danger signs flashing now (involving significant threats to ecological stability and social cohesion)can be easily lost amidst a swirl of misinformation, other more trivial information, and the siren song of multiple entertainment venues.

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