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Oil Market Report

Just where Saudi Arabia wants it

6 DECEMBER 2012

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil market


We expect Brent crude to ease towards $105/b and OPEC reserve capacity to increases during the first half of 2013 due to softer seasonal demand and a continued rise in US oil production. Currently, OPEC is producing around 1 mb/d more than is needed, although so far there are few signs global markets are oversupplied with the Brent crude oil curve still in solid backwardation. We see little reason to expect a more substantial fall in the oil price despite the weak European economic outlook and substantial uncertainties regarding the US fiscal cliff. Conversely, there is increasing evidence that the Chinese economy has stabilized and could start to accelerate somewhat again. At least, domestic implied oil demand recovered in October. On-going geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also likely to continue to support the oil price. Finally, Saudi Arabia clearly targets a price of between $100/b and $110/b. Should it fall below $100/b we would expect to see a rapid reduction in Saudi Arabian oil production causing the oil price to recover fairly quickly. Chinese implied oil demand recovered to nearly 10 mb/d in October, a level not seen since May. Growth in total credit is picking up, PMIs are pointing higher while manufacturing is expanding supported additionally by Christmas export orders. Chinese policy makers remain supportive, stating they will actively promote urbanization as well as an expansion in consumption. Local car sales are currently posting growth of only 5% per annum; a rate we expect will improve substantially in time and sooner rather than later if stimulated by Chinese policy makers. Conversely, so far, the improving situation in China appears to be dominated by large state owned companies while private small- to medium sized businesses still appear to be struggling. Of course, the improving Chinese economy is important with China, India and the Middle East accounting for more than 50% of growth in global oil demand. While Chinese optimism, a Greek debt deal in Europe and relentless tension in the Middle East are all bullish for the oil price, concerns regarding the US fiscal cliff and improvements in supply have the opposite effect. In particular, the fiscal cliff will restrict US growth next year. At the same time, the crude oil supply situation will probably improve further, and seasonal demand soften during the first half of next year. Provided Middle East tensions do not escalate, we expect softer crude oil prices during the first half of next year. Over the next couple of months however the oil markets attention will, at least partly, be directed towards the northern hemispheres heating demand requirements.

Crude oil price


(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 ja -10 n fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -10 n ju l-10 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 6 5 N EXW I YM T IC Bre t E n

IEA global crude oil demand estimates


(mb/d)
9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 8 0 7 9 o 9 kt-0 o 0 kt-1 o 1 kt-1 o 2 kt-1 a r-1 p 0 a r-1 p 1 a r-1 p 2 ju 9 l-0 ju 0 l-1 ju 1 l-1 ja -1 n 0 ja -1 n 1 ja -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 21 00 21 01 21 02 21 03

Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Current global crude oil demand estimates


2012 (mb/d) 89.6 89.05 88.80 Revision (kb/d) -80 -40 -10 2013 (mb/d) 90.4 89.94 89.57 Revision (kb/d) -70 -70 -20

IEA EIA OPEC

SEB average Brent crude oil price forecast


($/b) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 105 Q2 105 Q3 110 Q4 110 110 Full Year 111.7 107.5 110.0 115.0

10 0

12 0

14 0

16 0

18 0

10 1

12 1

10 0

10 1

10 2

10 3

10 4

10 5

9 2 ja -1 n 3 a r-1 p 3 ju 3 l-1 o 3 kt-1 ja -1 n 4 a r-1 p 4

9 4

9 6

9 8

1 0 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

100 000

100 500

200 000

200 500

300 000

300 500

400 000

400 500

500 00

(ICE, $/b)

Crude oil

Crude oil price

20 08

SEB Oil Market Report

IC B n E re t

Brent futures curve

20 09 Sh rt o
ju 4 l-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 5 a r-1 p 5 ju 5 l-1 o 5 kt-1 1 -1 -0 2 2 5 1 -1 -0 2 1 5 1 -1 -0 2 0 5 ja -1 n 6 a r-1 p 6 ju 6 l-1 o 6 kt-1 ja -1 n 7 a r-1 p 7

N EXW I YM T

Nt e

Ln og

Speculative positions WTI

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

(NYMEX, lots, futures and options, weekly data)

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)

21 00

21 01

21 02

8 5

8 6

8 7

8 8

8 9

9 0

9 1

9 2

9 3

(NYMEX, $/b)

(daily closing)
ja -1 n 3 a r-1 p 3 ju 3 l-1 o 3 kt-1 ja -1 n 4 a r-1 p 4 ju 4 l-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 5 a r-1 p 5 ju 5 l-1 o 5 kt-1 ja -1 n 6 a r-1 p 6 ju 6 l-1 o 6 kt-1 ja -1 n 7 1 -1 -0 2 2 5 1 -1 -0 2 1 5 1 -1 -0 2 0 5

WTI futures curve

Benchmark spreads

12 month time spread

(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango, <0: backwardation)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 -2 4 -2 6 -2 8

1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2

-4 -6 -8 -1 0

1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2

W I m u Bre t T in s n Bre t m u D b i n in s u a Bre t m u U ls n in s ra

IC Bre t E n

N E WI YM X T

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil
US crude oil inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
3 90 3 80 3 70 3 60 3 50
c

OECD total industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
20 80 27 75 25 70 22 75 20 70 27 65 25 60 22 65 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

3 40 3 30 3 20 3 10 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 yea a era r v ge 20 11 20 12

20 60 27 55 25 50 22 55 j f m a m j j a s o n d

OECD Europe industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
13 00 12 00 11 00 10 00 90 9 90 8 90 7 90 6 90 5 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OECD North America industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
10 40 17 35 15 30 12 35 10 30 17 25 15 20 12 25 5 ye r ra g to a n e, p 5 ye r ra g b tto a n e, o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

90 4 90 3 90 2 j f m a m j j a s o n d 10 20 17 15 j f m a m j j a s o n d

OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
40 5 45 4 40 4 45 3 40 3 45 2 40 2 45 1 40 1 45 0 40 0 35 9 30 9 35 8 30 8 35 7 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OPEC production
(kb/d, monthly data)
300 30 O C 2 p d ctio PE -1 ro u n 300 20 300 10 300 00 200 90 200 80 200 70 200 60 200 50 ja -0 n 8 m r-0 a 8 m j-0 a 8 ju 8 l-0 se -0 p 8 n v-0 o 8 ja -0 n 9 m r-0 a 9 m j-0 a 9 ju 9 l-0 se -0 p 9 n v-0 o 9 ja -1 n 0 m r-1 a 0 m j-1 a 0 ju 0 l-1 se -1 p 0 n v-1 o 0 ja -1 n 1 m r-1 a 1 m j-1 a 1 ju 1 l-1 se -1 p 1 n v-1 o 1 ja -1 n 2 m r-1 a 2 m j-1 a 2 ju 2 l-1 se -1 p 2 n v-1 o 2 200 40 O C 1 p d ctio PE -1 ro u n

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

European oil product markets


With the last refineries now returning from pre-winter maintenance, supplies are being more promptly delivered, dampening product market sentiment generally. Timing is positive with below average European temperatures forecast going forward, a worrying situation in middle distillates if supply had still been restricted. European oil inventories excluding naphtha are very low though reluctance to hold stocks over the year end for tax reasons has substantially reduced incentives to rebuild them. Product cracks have performed more divergently in recent weeks following the general downtrend as refineries began coming back on-stream from mid-October. Consequently, overall refinery economics have been relatively stable lately. Light ends: The naphtha market remains strong despite increasing supply and weak demand from both the petrochemical industry and gasoline blenders. The fact that propane remains relatively expensive is however still positive for naphtha. Given current very high stocks and little demand for European barrels elsewhere relative risk appears skewed to the downside. With US stocks back to normal, those in European starting to rise once again and winter arrived, there is little to be bullish about in the gasoline market. However, most of the correction has probably occurred already. Despite further limited downside in the crack in coming months a collapse from the current level is unlikely. Middle distillates: The arrival of winter in Europe has not stopped the downtrend in middle distillate cracks with markets focusing on improved supply following the end of the maintenance season. Both diesel and jet fuel demand are under pressure as weather conditions reduce travelling while gasoil consumers appear currently surprisingly well supplied. Diesel continues to weaken relative to the rest of the middle of the barrel. It now appears unlikely that refineries will maximise production of diesel going into next year. Meanwhile, low inventories, the small volume of arbitrage cargoes coming in, and Asian refiners focusing on kerosene for winter heating are holding up the jet crack. In general, middle distillate inventories on both sides of the Atlantic are very limited. Therefore, this part of the barrel should continue to be monitored closely as the sensitivity to incremental demand, e.g. due to cold snaps, will be high. Heavy ends: Fuel oil cracks are approaching early 2011 lows. Despite the fact there is little to support this market we expect them to begin bottoming out. Inventories have fallen sharply due to a reluctance to hold stocks over the year end, despite market contango, while Asian markets appear saturated and unwilling to take more in addition to cargoes already heading there. Going forward, the fuel oil market is likely to start focusing more on potentially stronger Chinese demand prior to the Lunar New Year. The high-low spread is relatively stable as HS and LS have fallen together.

European light end benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
10 20 15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 ja -10 n fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -10 n ju l-10 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 J fu l et e D se 1 p m ie l 0 p G so 0 % a il .1 60 0 N p th ah a G so e a lin

European middle distillate benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5

European fuel oil benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
80 0 75 7 70 5 75 2 70 0 65 7 60 5 65 2 60 0 55 7 50 5 55 2 50 0 45 7 40 5 45 2 40 0 35 7 30 5 H h su h r fu l o (3 % ig lp u e il .5 ) L w su h r fu l o (1 % o lp u e il .0 )

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US gasoline and distillate inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d G so e 5 ye r a e g a lin a v ra e G so e 2 1 a lin 0 2 D istilla fu l o 5 ye r a e g te e il a v ra e D istilla fu l o 2 1 te e il 0 2

US product benchmarks
(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
30 6 30 5 30 4 30 3 30 2 30 1 30 0 20 9 20 8 20 7 20 6 20 5 20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 G so e a lin H a go e tin il

US refinery utilization
(%, weekly data)
9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d 2 0 -2 1 a g 07 01 v. 21 02

ICE Gasoil and European premiums to Gasoil


($/t, daily closing)
10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 IC G so 0 % (le E a il .1 ft) J t fu l p m m (rig t) e e re iu h D se 1 p m p m m (rig t) ie l 0 p re iu h 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 0

n v-1 o 0

n v-1 o 1

m r-1 a 0

m r-1 a 1

m r-1 a 2

se -1 p 0

se -1 p 1

European product cracks


($/b, daily closing)
3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m 0 ar-1 a 0 pr-1 m 0 aj-1 ju -1 n 0 jul-1 0 au -1 g 0 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n ov-1 0 de 0 c-1 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m 1 ar-1 a 1 pr-1 m 1 aj-1 ju -1 n 1 jul-1 1 au -1 g 1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n ov-1 1 de 1 c-1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m 2 ar-1 a 2 pr-1 m 2 aj-1 ju -1 n 2 jul-1 2 au -1 g 2 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n ov-1 2 de 2 c-1 -2 5 N h a ap th J fu et el L su hu fue oil ow lp r l D se 10 p ie l pm G lin aso e G il 0.1 aso % H h su hu fu oil ig lp r el

European low - high sulphur fuel oil differential


($/t, daily closing)
7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2

se -1 p 2

m j-1 a 0

m j-1 a 1

m j-1 a 2

n v-1 o 2

50 5

ju 0 l-1

ju 1 l-1

ja -1 n 0

ja -1 n 1

ja -1 n 2

ju 2 l-1

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
Regional 3-2-1 cracks
($/b, daily closing)
4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Asia (M a in s) U (W I) S T Eu p (Bre t) ro e n Pe n G lf (D b i) rsia u ua

European naphtha stocks


(kt, monthly data)
10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 j 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2

European gasoline stocks


(kt, monthly data)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

European jet fuel stocks


(kt, monthly data)
90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 30 5 30 0 20 5 20 0 10 5 10 0 j f m a m j j a

4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e s o n d

European gasoil stocks


(kt, monthly data)
30 10 30 00 20 90 20 80 20 70 20 60 20 50 20 40 20 30 20 20 20 10 20 00 10 90 10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 j f

European fuel oil stocks


(kt, monthly data)
15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US implied crude oil demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
1 ,8 5 1 ,6 5 1 ,4 5 1 ,2 5 1 ,0 5 1 ,8 4 1 ,6 4 1 ,4 4 1 ,2 4 1 ,0 4 1 ,8 3 1 ,6 3 1 ,4 3 j f m a m j j a s o n d
8 ,5 j f m a m j j a s o n d 8 ,9 9 ,1 9 ,3 9 ,5

US implied gasoline demand


(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
9 ,7

5 ag y v. 21 01 21 02

8 ,7

5 a g. y v 2 1 01 2 2 01

US implied distillate demand


(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
5 ,6 5 ,4 5 ,2 5 ,0 4 ,8 4 ,6 4 ,4 4 ,2 4 ,0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5y av . g 20 11 20 12

Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York


($/t, daily closing)
4 4 4 0 3 6 3 2 2 8 2 4 2 0 1 6 1 2 8 4 0 -4 -8 -1 2 -1 6 -2 0 -2 4

Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York


($/t, daily closing)
2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 H a g o a il e tin il/G so J t fu l/Ke se e e e ro n

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2

-2 5

ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Related energy markets


US natural gas price
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

UK natural gas price


(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
1 6 1 5 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 5 0 $ M tu (le a /M B ft xis) G /th rm (rig t a Bp e h xis) 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Nordic power price


(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0

Continental power price


(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02 21 02

20 09

21 00

21 01

EUA price
(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
3 3 3 1 2 9 2 7 2 5 2 3 2 1 1 9 1 7 1 5 1 3 1 1 9 7 5

21 02

Coal price
(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
15 3 10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

SEB Oil Market Report

Market indicators
MSCI World equity market index
(weekly closing)
10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0

UBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market index


(price index, weekly closing)
10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

JPM global manufacturing PMI


(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
5 8 5 6 5 4 5 2 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2

Regional PMI:s
(monthly data)
6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a R fe n e re ce

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Regional industrial production growth


(%, y/y, monthly data)
2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 -2 5 m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 m r-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 se -1 p 2 U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a

21 02

OECD composite leading indicators


(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 C in h a Eu zo e ro n O D EC U SA R fe n e re ce

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research

m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 m r-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 se -1 p 2

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21 02

SEB Oil Market Report

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11

SEB Commodity Research


Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 9248 9230 Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47

www.seb.se