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Original Title: e301sample questions2_12

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e301sample questions2_12

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01 Econometrics

Taskin

Work on the exercises 8.1, 7.2, 7.7, 6.5, 4.10 in the text book. 1. The relationship between Unemployment rate and Inflation rate is examined using quarterly data for the period, 1962:1 1967:4; (24 observations). The parameters of the relationship are thought to vary between quarters and the researcher defined to following model:

Unempt = 1 + 1 S1t + 2 S 2t + 3 S 3t + 2 INFt + t Unempt and INFt are the Unemployment rate and Inflation rate respectively. The seasonal dummies are defined as S1t takes the value of 1 for the first-quarter observations and 0 otherwise; S 2 t takes the value of 1 for the second-quarter observations and 0 otherwise; S 3t takes the value of 1 for the

where third-quarter observations and 0 otherwise. The estimation results are given in the following table: a. According to economic theory what is the expected sign for the coefficient of Inflation and why? b. Write the predicted (fitted) equation for Unemployment ( Unempt ) in the fourth quarter according to the above estimation results? c. Is inflation rate variable a significant variable in explaining unemployment? Test the hypothesis. d. Test the hypothesis that there is no statistical difference between the first quarter and fourth quarter unemployment equations. e. Test the hypothesis that there is no statistical difference between the second quarter and third quarter unemployment equations. (COVARIANCE matrix is necessary) f. Test the hypothesis that seasons affect the relationship between unemployment rate and inflation. [For each hypothesis testing, state the null and alternative, the test statistic, the critical value, your conclusion and your interpretation]

namely X 2 , X 3 , X 4 and X 5 . The following two models are considered estimated with 20 observations: Model 1: Yi = 1 + 2 X 2i + 3 X 3i + 4 X 4i + 5 X5i + i ; Model 2:

Yi = 1 + 2 X 2i + 3 X 3i + i :

When the models are estimated the following results are obtained:

) Yi = 14 0.642 X 2i + 0.396 X 3i ; R 2 = 0.837, ) Yi = 14.6 0.611X 2i + 0.439 X 3i 0.08 X 4i 0.064 X5i ; R 2 = 0.845,

) s = 3.072 ) s = 3.190

a) Discuss briefly why we can not use R 2 to compare the two models. b) Compute the SSR, (Sum of Squared Residuals) for both models and SST (sum of squared total). c) Compute R 2 , (adjusted R 2 ) for both models. Use this to decide which model is better. d) Use of formal test, ie a F test to check whether the variables sufficiently in model 1.

X 4 and X 5 contribute

3 .Short-answers Choose three questions from the following list. a. Define and illustrate graphically a distribution that is consistent and a distribution that is inconsistent For sample with each observation described by the following equation and a population regression equation,

b.

Yt = 1 + 2 X t + t

E (Yt ) = 1 + 2 X t , and the sample regression ) ) equation, Yt = 1 + 2 X t , describe and show graphically, the concepts of Total Sum of

Squares, (SST), Explained Sum of Squares (SSE) and Residual Sum of Squares (SSR) and R2. c. In the regression respect to X.

d.

Given the following regression equations which can be compared using R2 statistics to choose the best regression and why? Explain. i. Yt = 1 + 2 X t + t estimated with 50 observations

Yt = 1 + 2 X t + Z i + t estimated with 25 observations. iii. log(Yt ) = 1 + 2 log( X t ) + t estimated with 50 observations iv. Yt = 1 + 2 X t + (1/ Z i ) + t estimated with 25 observations.

ii. e. When can you use adjusted R2 instead?

S t = + Yt + At + Pt + et where S t is the sales of a firm in district t, Yt is the total income in the state, and At is the amount of money spent by the company advertising and Pt is the population in that district (t = 1,2,...,50) . You suspect that the random error term et is heteroscedastic with variance 2 that is related to the Advertising expenditure At .

4. Consider the model

Assume that you have the following information about the error structure. For each of the following cases, explain how you would revise the estimation technique to obtain estimates that are BLUE. Write an hypothetical dependent variable and independent variable set for each assumption and prove that errors of the transformed model is acually homoskedastic. 2 2 i) var(et ) = t = At .

ii) var( et ) = t = (1 / At )

2 2 4

iii) iv)

var(et ) = t2 = 2 ( Pt 2 + At2 ) std (et ) = t = At LnYt as a function of logarithm of labor, LnLt and

LnK t inputs:

Suppose that least square estimation on 25 observations on these variables yield the following results:

0.0232 0.0354 0.0124 Var ( ) = 0.0354 0.0692 0.0294 0.0124 0.0294 0.0140

2 . b. Use a t-test to test the hypothesis H 0 : 2 1 against the alternative hypothesis H 1 : 2 < 1 . c. Test the hypothesis that H 0 : 2 + 3 = 1 against the alternative of not equal to one.

a. Find the 95% interval estimate for d. e. Find the total variation, unexplained variation and explained variation for this model. Test the hypothesis that H 0 : 2 = 3 = 0 against the alternative of not equal to zero

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