Philippine Flood Management Knowledge Sharing Forum 4-5 December 2012 Manila

Climate Risks in the Philippines
Angat Dam

NATHANIEL T. SERVANDO
Administrator, PAGASA
The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.
Department of Science and Technology Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Outline of Presentation
1. PAGASA in a nutshell

2. Philippines’ vulnerability to extreme climate/flood events
3. Brief Climatology, Trends and Projections 4. Initiatives and Current projects to improve PAGASA’s early warning services 5. Challenges, opportunities and WAY FORWARD

PAGASA in a Nutshell

The nation’s meteorological & hydrological service (NMHS)
To provide weather, flood, climate and astronomical products & services to promote the people’s safety and well-being, and contribute to national development

PAGASA Headquarter Agham Road, Diliman, QC.

Philippine, Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) - Presidential Decree No. 78 (Dec.
1972) as amended by PD No. 1149 (June 1977)

PAGASA is an attached agency of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST)

PAGASA is a Member of the NDRRMC.
The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations.
The PAGASA Administrator is the Permanent Representative with WMO.

PAGASA in a Nutshell: Organizational PAGASA in a Nutshell Chart

weather

Dry spell/droughts

floods

Operational Division

NETWORK OF PAGASA STATIONS
EXISTING MONITORING WEATHER STATIONS
1. Synoptic Stations (Manual) 2. Agromet Stations (Manual) 3. CLIMAT Rain Stations (Manual) 4. Upper Air Stations 5. Automatic Weather Stations (10 m wind mast) AWS(ASTI) - 2 meter wind mast 6. Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) - PAGASA Automatic Rain Gauge - ASTI – PREDICT 7. Marine Bouy 8. Wind profiler 9. RADAR Stations (Existing 58 21 75

6
73 80 87 100/91 2 1 10

Existing telemetered gauging stations in major river basins & reservoirs
Monitored telemetered major river basins (5)

River basin / dam 1. Pampanga river basin 2. Agno river basin 3. Bicol river basin 4. Cagayan river basin 5. Pasig-Marikina-Laguna Lake EFCOS (MMDA) KOICA (PAGASA) ASTI (DOST) 6. Angat dam 5. Pantabangan dam 6. Binga/Ambuklao dam 7. San Roque dam 8. Magat dam 9. Ipo/La Mesa dam

RR 17 12 11 5
7 17

WL 10 9 7 5
11 16 33

Date 1973 1983 1983 1983
1993 2012

4 5 6 3 6 2

2 1 2 2 2 2

1986 1986 1992 2003 1992 2011

Monitored telemetered major reservoirs

2 Philippines’ Vulnerability to Extreme Climate/Flood Events

The nature of hazards in the Philippines

Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster

Why is the Philippines prone to flooding?
Meteorological factors:

The climate of the PH is influenced by the complex interactions of various factors such as :
 Philippine Geography and Topography  Ocean currents  Semi-permanent cyclones and anti-cyclones

 Principal Air Streams
 Linear systems  Tropical Cyclones  ENSO (El Niño/La Niña)

Extreme flood / flash flood events in the PH
1. 2. 3. 4. 1972 flood in Central Luzon – due to 4 storms in July to August 1979 flood in Bulacan due to unprecedented spill of Angat dam 1991 flash flood in Ormoc City due to Typhoon Uring 2004 flood in Pangasinan & Pampanga and flash floods in Infanta & Quezon provinces due to passages of Typhoons Violata, Winnie and Yoyong 2006 floods/flashflood in Albay due to passage of Typhoon Reming (Durian) 2008 floods/flashflood in Panay Island due to passage of Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) 2009 floods in Metro Manila & surrounding provinces & Pangasinan due to spill of San Roque dam 2011 floods in Central Luzon (Typhoons Pedring & Quiel) and Cagayan de Oro and Iligan cities (Tropical Storm Sendong) 2012 floods in Metro Manila & surrounding provinces due to the surge of the Southwest monsoon

5.
6.

7.
8. 9.

Aug 2004 floods in Pangasinan & Pampanga and flash floods in Infanta & Quezon provinces

Mosaic of Dingalan town and vicinity showing flood/ flashflood hazard analysis.
(Data: 2005 aerial photographs, courtesy of ICDAI)

Source: Cruz, et al, 2005

29 Nov 2006 flood/flashflood in Albay province
Dead 734 Affected population 2.0M Total Damage P5.5B

TY Reming

June 2008 flood/flash flood in the Iloilo province

26 Sep 2009 flooding in Metro Manila & surrounding provinces
Bankoff (2003) described that Metro Manila’s vulnerability to flooding has evolved as a result of the degree of interplay between climate, topography, resource use, and culture over time.

TS Ondoy

Causes of flooding in Metro Manila and surrounding areas on 26 September 2009 – due to passage of TS Ketsana
Insufficient warnings

Intense rainfall

Insufficient carrying capacities

Informal settlers

High rate of urbanization

Unabated/rampant development

Deforestation

High/dense population

09 October 2009 floods in Pangasinan due to the spill of San Roque dam

TY Pepeng

Sep - Oct 2011 floods in Central Luzon (Typhoons Pedring & Quiel)

Flash flood in Cagayan de Oro & Iligan cities on 16 Dec 2011 due to passage of TS Washi (Sendong)

Comparison with TS Ondoy
Hourly Rainfall at Science Garden during the passage of TS Ondoy & Habagat

Rainfall (mm)

300 mm in 6hrs (TS Ondoy)

300 mm in 22 hrs Habagat

The big volume of rainfall (500mm) brought about by TS Ondoy increased abruptly over 24 hours whereas during Habagat the 500mm of rainfall was accumulated gradually over 48 hours.

HABAGAT DAMAGES (As of 14 August 2012-NDRRMC)
Affected Population 825,018 families / 3,742,674 persons Casualties Dead: 95 Infrastructure P 639,128,230.00 Agriculture P 1,624,410,815.14 Flooded Areas 56 Cities/
Municipalities

from NCR, Reg. 3 & IV-A

Why is the Philippines prone to droughts?
IMPACTS OF SELECTED EL NIÑO EVENT ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL

1977-88, total loss of 7.5 x 105 MT of rice & corn production 1977-88, loss of 6.4 x 105 MT of rice & corn production; insurance claims P38M; Hydropower generation loss P316M

1987-88, moderate drought impacts
1997-98, About 70% of the Philippines experienced drought

ALL DROUGHT OCCURRENCES ARE ENSO-RELATED (El Niño)

2007 Dry spell
Affected Areas: (2007 Dry spell) • • • • • Cordillera Autonomous Region (CAR) Region I Region II Central Luzon Metro Manila

State of calamity in La Union Philippine Star Jul 31, 2007

EL NIÑO Manifestations

Tropical Cyclones During August 2004 El Niño

During El Niño, there are cases where tropical cyclones are not rain-effective

EL NIÑO IMPACTS

ANGAT DAM

The last El Niño episode started June 2009 and ended May 2010

3 Brief Climatology, Trends and Projections

Seasonal Rainfall Distribution in the Philippines First semestral
AVERAGE RAINFALL APRIL-SEPTEMBER (1951-2000)

Second semestral

AVERAGE RAINFALL OCTOBER-MARCH (1951-2000)

Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the Philippines

Tropical cyclone statistics in PH
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970-2010 DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE Number of Casualties > 300 TC NAME TS Uring * Date of Occurrence Nov 1-6, 1991 Casualties 5101

TC NAME

Date of Occurrence

Total damage in Billion PhP

Sep 30 - Oct 10 TY_PEPENG (Parma) 2009 TY PEDRING SEP 24- 28, 2011 TY FRANK Jun 18 – 23, 2008 (Fengshen) TY JUAN (Megi) Oct16 – 21, 2010 TS_ONDOY cost of Damage Increasing Sep 24 – 27, 2009 (Ketsana) TY_RUPING NOV 8-14, 1990 Maximum Wind (kph) 320 (Virac) 287 (Virac) 280 (Virac) 276 (Virac) 269 (Aparri) 269 (Masbate)

27.296722 15.552000
13.500000 11.500000 10.952198 10.846000

TS Sendong (Washi) *
TY Nitang TY Trix TY Amy TY Rosing

Dec 15-17, 2011
Aug 31 – Sep 4, 1984 Oct 17-23, 1952 Dec 6-11, 1951 Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995

1268
1029 995 991 936

*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong were characterized by flashfloods.

MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC
TC NAME TY Reming TY Loleng TY Anding TY Sening TY Wening TY Trining Date of Occurrence Nov 30, 2006 Oct 21, 1998 Nov 27, 1981 Oct 13, 1970 Oct 27, 1974 Dec 15, 1987

MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC
TC NAME TY Feria TY Iliang TY Trining TY Susang TY Trining TY Ditang Maximum 24-hour rainfall (mm) 1085.8 (Baguio) 994.6(Baguio) 979.4 (Baguio) 781.4 (Baguio) 760.0 (Baguio) 730.3(Baguio) Date of Occurrence July 4, 2001 Oct 14, 1998 Oct 17, 1967 Oct 11, 1974 Oct 27, 1991 May 15, 1980

Trends & impacts of flooding in Metro Manila
Max 1-hr for TC events: 75.1 mm Max 1-hr for Non-TC events: 97 mm TC events: 55 (51.4%) Non-TC events: 52 (48.6%)

Source: HMD, PAGASA

Without CC

With CC

Metro Manila’s regional GDP in 2008 was 468 billion PHP (National Statistical Coordination Board). Damage costs range from 3% of GDP (SQ-EX-10) to 24% (A1FI-EX-100). Climate change costs represent 1% (1-in-10 flood), 6% (1-in-30 flood) & 10% (1-in-100 flood) of GDP.

Source: Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report, 2010, ADB, JICA, WB

Impacts of flooding
There is no single description for ‘floods’. Rather there are different situations such as flash floods, monsoon flooding and wind storms such as tropical cyclones. The scale of floods in the Philippines is increasing, as is the number of floods.

Source: Office of Civil Defense

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS

Observed mean temperature has increased by 0.64 ºC during the last 60 years (1951-2010). Projected increase of 1 to 2.0 ºC under a medium emission scenario is expected by 2020 & 2050 and 0.7 to 1.7 ºC increase under a high emission scenario. The figure shows that it is only after 2050 that the temperature increase showing the climate response to high or medium range scenarios will start to diverge. This is due to the fact that Ghg gases already in the atmosphere have long lifetimes and will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize.

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)

Dry seasons becoming drier.
Wet seasons becoming wetter.

Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) Mar-Apr-May (MAM) Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) Sep-Oct-Nov (SON)

Medium-range Emission Scenario 2020 2050 -0.4 to 54.3 % -0.1 to-25.1-%
-0.2 to -33.3% -0.4 to 43.1% -0.4 to 30.0% -1.4 to -39.8% -0.7 to 72.5% -0.5 to 39.0%

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS

Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emission scenario (A1B) By Climate type
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Baguio
1600.0 1400.0
Rainfall Amount (mm) Rainfall Amount (mm)

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Casiguran
900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0

1200.0
1000.0 800.0
OBS 2020 2050

500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050

600.0
400.0 200.0 0.0

100.0
0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Iloilo
600.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Hinatuan
900.0 800.0

500.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0
OBS 2020 2050

700.0 600.0

500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050

100.0
0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Dumaguete
900.0 800.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)
900.0 800.0

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Davao

700.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

600.0

700.0 600.0

500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050

500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050

100.0
0.0

100.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

4.
Current initiatives and projects to improve PAGASA’s early warning services

Integrated High Performance Computing System (iHPCS) Redundant Communication System
Rolling-out of Automated Weather Stations, Raingauges, and Water Level Sensors

Warning System for Marine and Air Navigation and Transport

Rolling-out of Climate Change Projection Scenarios Information

Mapping of Real-Time/Historical Hazard Events

IEC on hydrometeorological hazards

“tracking the sky…helping the country”

Enhancement of Radar network
UPDATES: Operational  Baguio  Subic  Tagaytay  Virac  Mactan  Hinatuan
VIRAC

APARRI
BAGUIO BALER

SUBIC
TAGAYTAY BUSUANGA GUIUAN

ILOILO
QUEZON MACTAN HINATUAN ZAMBOANGA TAMPACAN

Construction – On-going  Guiuan Under testing &commissioning  Aparri, Tampacan Under bidding process  Busuanga, Iloilo, Quezon & Zamboanga  Mobile Doppler Radar

ENSO VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES

Rolling-out of Climate Change Projection Scenarios Information Seasonal Climate Forecast

ENSO/Drought Monitoring
Agrometeorological forecasts and impact assessments

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Thunderstorm Warning System:
be website

Challenges, opportunities & WAY FORWARD
1. 2. Establishment of FFWS Centers (buildings) in the other 13 major river basins in the country Assist NOAH project in the installation of 1000 monitoring stations (rainfall & water level gauges in major river and principal river basins) Operationalization of the KOICA2 Project Enhancement of flood forecasts showing the extent or limits of inundation – NOAH program (DOST) Continue flood hazard mapping activities (1:10K) Integration and harmonization of activities under various local & foreign- assisted project which will are on-going and to be implemented in 2013 Adoption of the newly upgraded Dam & Flood warning protocols Promotion of Community Based Flood Early Warning System (CBFEWS) Develop/ adopt new methods for long-term /seasonal forecast (i.e.
combined statistical and dynamical approach)

3. 4. 5. 6.

7. 8.

9.

Establishment of FFWS Centers in 13 Major River Basins in 2013 - PAGASA
River Basin 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Abulog Abra Panay Jalaur Ilog-Hilabangan Agusan Agus-Lake Lanao Cagayan de Oro TagumLibuganon Davao BuayanMalungun Location Luzon Luzon Visayas Visayas Visayas Mindanao Mindanao Mindanao Mindanao Mindanao Mindanao Area, km2 3,372 5,125 1,843 1,503 1,945 10,621 1,645 1,521 3,064 1,623 1,434

18 Major river basins

12 13

Taglaoan Mindanao

Mindanao Mindanao

1,704 23,169

National Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) Project – DOST and UP

Operationalization of the KOICA2 Project: Establishment of

Early Warning & Monitoring System for Metro Manila
EFCOS Monitoring & Warning system - 7 rainfall stations - 10 water level stations - 9 Warning posts (Manggahan Floodway

KOICA2 Project

Integration of existing & proposed monitoring systems – Resilience project (UNDP-CIDA)
KOICA Monitoring & warning system - 7 rainfall stations & 10 water level stations - 4 automatic weather stations (AWS) - 19 warning posts in Pasig-Marikina & Nangka rivers

Various projects for implementation in 2013
No. Project Title 1 Establishment of FFWS Centers in 13 major river basin (”RIVER CENTERS” Project) 2 GMMA Risk Assessment Project (RAP) 3 Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and Warning System in the Bicol River Basin (“BICOL Project”) 4 Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and Warning System on Magat Dam and downstream communities (“Norad Project”) 5 Building Community Resilience and Strengthening Local Government Capacities for Recovery and Disaster Risk Management (“Resilience Project”) 6 UNDP Ready for GMMA Project 7 Applying Remote Sensing Technology in River Basin Management in Philippines 8 Supporting Investments in Water-Related Disaster Management 9 Ecotown Demonstration Framework on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (V&A) of Vulnerable Areas to Climate Change 10 Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation (DRR/CCA) in Local development Planning and Decision-making Process 11 Enabling the Cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan to Cope with Climate Change (“Project Climate Twin Phoenix ”) Study/Pilot Area/Basin 4-5 Centers in 2013; the rest in 2014 GMMA Bicol River Basin Magat watershed Donor Duration GoP (2013 GAA) 2013 - 2014 AusAID/GA Government of Japan (GoJ) Norad 2010-2013 2010-2013 2010 - 2013

GMMA

UNDP/ CIDA

2010 - 2013

Laguna, Rizal, Cavite & Bulacan Cagayan River Basin Cagayan River Basin Siargao Island and Palawan

UNDP/ AusAID ADB/ JAXA ADB/ ICHARM GGGI/CCC

2010 - 2013 2013 2013 2012 - 2013

Al l 13 Regions and 82 provinces UNDP/ AusAID & 2012 - 2013 NZAP /NEDA Cagayan de Oro and Mandulog river basins UNDP/AusAID 2013 - 2014

Various projects for implementation in 2013
No. Project Title 12 Establishment of a Pilot Automatic Warning System (AWS) in Cagayan de Oro River Basin 13 Resilience Capacity Building for Cities and Municipalities to Reduce Disaster Risks from Climate Change and Natural Hazards (“ReBUILD Project”) 14 Counterplan for Extra-ordinary Flood 15 Data Collection Survey on Situation of nationwide Flood Forecasting and Warning System 16 17 Operationalization of KOICA2 Project Disaster Preparedness & Response Project Study/Pilot Area/Basin Donor CDO river basin NDMI / MOPAS, Korea Regions 2 (CRB), 3 (PRB) UNDP/ NZAP and 6 (Jalaur, Aklan, Panay, Ilog-Hilabangan) Pampanga river basin UNESCAP/ WMO/ TC / KICT All major river basins; JICA Mandulog river basin Pasig-Marikina river basin KOICA Benguet, Cagayan, UN-WFP Laguna, & Sorsogon FAO/Gov. of Japan thru DA Region 2, Region 6 World Bank Duration 2013 2013 - 2015

2012 - 2014 2013 2013 2013 2012-2013 2011-2015

18 FAO-A MICAF Project (Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) 19. Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project (PhilCCAP) 20.

www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

The source of man's unhappiness is his ignorance of Nature.
- Paul Henry Thiry d'Holbach