1.6K views

Uploaded by Sau Hong

- decline curve analysis
- Depletion and Decline Curve Analysis in Crude Oil Production
- Decline Curve Analysis.fekete
- Analysis of Production Decline Curves.pdf
- UserGuides Tutorials Examples OFM 2014
- Reservoir Petrophysics Class Notes
- Day 3 Pm - Production Forecasting & Decline Curves
- Decline Curve.pdf
- Decline Curve Analysis
- Module 8 Relative Permeability
- Decline Curve Analysis
- Fetkovich Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves
- Lecture 4_decline Curve Analysis
- Fundamentals of Basic Reservoir Engineering 2010
- 28848005 Reservoir and Production Fundamentals
- Decline Equations Chapter
- Traditional Decline Curve Analysis
- Fetkovich Decline Curves
- Reservoir Stimulation HandBook
- 1. PETSOC-2003-181-P - Using Decline Curves to Forecast Waterflooded Reservoris_Fundamentals and Field Cases

You are on page 1of 44

Mangi Altaee

Lesson Outcomes

To explain the reserve estimation by DCA.

To describe the three types of decline curves To apply the decline curve analysis for reserve

estimation

RESERVES ESTIMATION

"reserves" means different things to different people. To the banker the amount of capital retained to meet probable future demands. To the oil and gas operator the volumes of crude oil, natural gas, and associated products that can be recovered profitably in the future from subsurface reservoirs.

those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered & marketable from known accumulations from a given date forward.

Who are the people in the industry interested to know about reserves?

companies and individuals responsible for E&P and operation of oil and gas properties buyers and sellers of oil and gas properties

banks and other financial institutions involved in the financing exploration, development, or purchase of oil and gas properties agencies with regulatory or taxation authority over oil and gas operators

investors in oil and gas companies

potential reserves on undrilled prospects

sizing and design of equipment opportunities for additional profit from well stimulation Oil and gas reserves form an oil companys main assets!

It is very important to quantify forms of reserves. Quantifying of reserves is a complex problem! limited data varying interpretation

Reserve estimation It is an on-going activity during exploration, development planning, and during production.

Classification of Reserves

Proven reserves

discovered reserves that can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be recoverable under current economic conditions, technical conditions and government regulations.

Unproven reserves those reserves that are based on data similar to that used in the estimation of proven reserves but technical, contractual, economic or regulatory uncertainties prevent these reserves from being classified as proven.

Proven reserves:

1. 2. Developed reserves are expected to be recovered from existing wells Undeveloped reserves are to be recovered from new wells in undrilled acreage, deepening wells to different reservoirs

Unproven reserves:

1. 2. Probable reserves are those that have a reasonable probability of production with technology and profitablity close to those exist today Possible reserves are those that are not yet discovered, but whose existence is presumed with reasonable degree of probability.

Where significant data are available, particularly fluid production and reservoir pressure data, and the reservoir drive is known. Where production and reservoir data are limited but the reservoir is analogous to reservoirs in the immediate vicinity and same geologic horizon. Where such data are of sufficient quantity and quality to have established the reservoir drive mechanism Where production and reservoir data are limited, but the estimate is supported by a calculation of the hydrocarbons in place by the volumetric method. Considerations for probable or possible reserve: Where significant production data are available, but the reservoir drive mechanism is uncertain or the magnitude of the reservoir drive is uncertain.

Where production and reservoir data are limited and there are no analogus reservoirs in the immediate vicinity.

Where production and reservoir data are limited and the estimate is not supported by volumetric determinations.

1.

Developed reserves are reserves expected to be recovered from existing wells including reserves behind pipe.

Producing reserves are reserves to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of estimate and producing to market. Nonproducing reserves include shut-in and behind-pipe reserves. Shut-in reserves are expected to be recovered completion intervals open at the time of the estimate, but which have not started producing, or were shut in for market conditions of pipeline connections, or were not capable of production for mechanical reasons and the time when sales start is uncertain. Behind-pipe reserves are expected to be recovered from zones behind casing in existing wells, which will require additional completion work or a future recompletion prior to start of production.

2.

3.

3. Undeveloped reserves are reserves expected to be recovered

From deepening existing wells to a different reservoir Where a relatively large expenditure is required.

1. Analogy Employ no specific well information/ before a well is drilled. Least accurate Dependent on proximity of similar reserves

2. Volumetric calculations Well been drilled/ log analysis/ information obtained/ drainage area Subsurface contour map

3. Material Balance equation Enough information available/ FDP has been well planned & executed Reservoir is assumed homogeneous

4. Model study/ Reservoir simulation apply MBE/ reservoir broken up into small parts or discreet elements.

Extrapolation of the trend in performance/ most widely used.

Decline curve analysis is a graphical procedure used for analyzing

declining production rates and forecasting future performance of oil and gas wells. Decline curve analysis is a basic tool for estimating recoverable reserves. Conventional or basic decline curve analysis can be used only when the production history is long enough that a trend can be identified. Decline curves represent production from the reservoir under "boundary dominated flow" conditions. This means that during the early life of a well, while it is still in "transient flow" and the reservoir boundaries have not been reached, decline curves should NOT be expected to be applicable

Decline curve analysis is not grounded in fundamental theory but is based on empirical observations of production decline.

Three types of decline curves have been identified; exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic It is implicitly assumed, when using decline curve analysis, the factors causing the historical decline continue unchanged during the forecast period. These factors include both reservoir conditions and operating conditions.

Reservoir Conditions

pressure depletion, number of producing wells,

Operating Conditions

separator pressure, tubing size,

drive mechanism,

reservoir characteristics, saturation changes, and relative permeability

choke setting,

workovers, compression, operating hours, and artificial lift

Good engineering practice demands that, whenever possible, decline curve analysis should be reconciled with other indicators of reserves, such as volumetric calculations, material balance, and recovery factors. It should be noted that decline curve analysis results in an estimate of Recoverable Hydrocarbons, and NOT in Hydrocarbons-in-Place. Whereas the Hydrocarbons-in-Place are fixed by nature, the Recoverable hydrocarbons are affected by the operating conditions. For example a well producing from a reservoir containing 1BCF of gas-inplace may recover either 0.7 BCF or 0.9 BCF, depending on whether or not there is a compressor connected at the wellhead.

The following "decline curves" from production wells are commonly used in the DCA: Production rate vs. time. Production rate vs. cumulative oil production. Water cut vs. cumulative oil production. Gas-oil ratio vs. cumulative production. Percentage oil production vs. cumulative oil production. The (p/z) ratio vs. cumulative gas production.

The rate is constant during the early life of the well. Thereafter, as the reservoir pressure is reduced, the rate begins to decline.

In situations where the ultimate production rate is controlled by the amount of water production. When the value of the oil produced = the cost of disposing of the produced water, we have reached the point of abandonment.

OWC vs Cumulative Production In bottom-water drive fields, we might plot the location of the oilwater contact in the formation against cumulative oil production. As the OWC reaches the top of the sand, we know that we have recovered the crude reserves for this well

Reserve: cumulative production when OWC reaches to the top of the oil sand

This plot is useful in cases where we know the expected total gas to be produced.

This information provides an indication as to when the well will reach its abandonment point.

Pressure build-up tests or observation well data are used for this plot.

The relationship is from the application of the gas law to a fixed volume container & Material Balance Equation (MBE).

The minimum producing rate is determined by the back-pressure imposed on the well with or without surface compression.

When the value or this limiting back-pressure is converted to a value or average reservoir pressure, Pavg, divided by z and plotted against cumulative production,

An estimate of the ultimate predicable gas reserves may be obtained

Production rate is by far the most popular dependent It has the advantage of being readily available and easily recorded. The production rate curves normally show a fairly smoothly declining trend over extended periods when no major changes in operating procedures are made and no stimulation treatments are applied. The economic limit production rate When a production rate at which a well or field begins to lose money if production continues. If we incorporate this value into our rate versus time and rate versus cumulative production curves, we can extrapolate each trend line to this cut-off point. We can determine the number of years the well or field will produce profitably and the cumulative production at the time of abandonment.

Nearly all conventional decline-curve analysis is based on empirical relationships of production rate versus time, given by Arps (1945) as follows:

Where qt = production rate at time t qi = initial production rate stb/day t = time, days Di = initial decline rate, day 1 b = Arps decline-curve exponent

Exponential Decline

- the simplest type also known as constant percentage decline q = qi e-Dt where, q producing rate at time t qi initial rate, stb/day D nominal decline fraction, 1/day t time, days

Log Rate

1. Exponential decline

time not necessarily expressed in day. Any unit is acceptable provided that other units must be consistent. Conversion to other units can be done:

D1t1 = D2t2

note!!!: Dt term must be dimensionless Re-expressing the Exponential Decline Curve in terms of nominal decline fraction, D or time, t

q = qi e-Dt D = -[ln(q/qi)]/t t = -[ln(q/qi)]/D (1) (2) (3)

Exponential decline

Np =

qdt

(4)

= (qi - q)/D

Equation (4) can also be used to determine the nominal decline fraction, D from the given production data.

D = (qi - q)/ Np (5)

Example 1

A well is expected to produce 70 Mstb recoverable reserves and will be on exponential decline. The initial rate is estimated to be 100 stb/day and the abandonment rate in this region is 5 stb/day. How long will the well last? Determine its annual production.

Solution q = qi e-Dt or t = -[ln(q/qi)] /D

given: Np = 70,000 stb and q = 5 stb, therefore need to find D? D = (qi - q)/ Np D 1 t 1 = D 2t 2 D1 = [D2t2]/t1 = (0.001357 per day)(365 days)/(1 year) = 0.4954 per year t = -[ln(q/qi)] /D = - [ln(5/100)]/ 0.4954 = (100 - 5)stb per day / 70,000 stb = 0.001357 /day

= 6.05 years

Rate (stb/day) 100.00 60.93 37.13 22.62 13.78 8.40 5.12 4.99

Production Cumulative Annual (stb) (stb) 0 0 28,789 28,789 46,332 17,542 57,021 10,689 63,534 6,513 67,502 3,969 69,920 2,418 70,013 92

[100-60.93]/ 0.001357

=28,789 - 0

2. Hyperbolic Decline

predicts a longer well life than is predicted by the exponential decline model.

q = qi [1 + bDit]1/b where, b hyperbolic exponent . The value ranges from 0 to 1 Di initial nominal decline fraction, 1/time

t = [(qi/q)b - 1] /(Dib)

integration of Di to obtain cumulative oil production Di = {qib/[(1 - b) Np]} [qi1-b - q1-b]

or expressing initial decline fraction in terms of Np.

Example 2

A well is expected to produce 70 Mstb recoverable reserves and will be on hyperbolic decline with an exponent of 0.5. The initial rate is estimated to be 100 stb/day and the abandonment rate in this region is 5 stb/day. How long will the well last? Determine its annual production. Solution

Di = {qib/[(1 - b) Np]} [qi1-b - q1-b] ={1000.5/[(1 - 0.5)(70,000)]} {1001 - 0.5 - - 51 - 0.5}

= 0.002218/day

= 0.8097/year

Rate (stb/day) 100.00 50.67 30.54 20.39 14.58 10.94 8.51 6.80 5.57 5.00

Production Cumulative Annual (stb) (stb) 0 0 25,983 25,983 40,341 14,358 49,450 9,109 55,743 6,293 60,352 4,609 63,872 3,520 66,649 2,777 68,896 2,247 70,005 1,109

[(1000.5)/((1- 0.5)0.002218)] [(100(1-0.5) - 50.67(10.5)]

3. Harmonic Decline

uncommon

predict longer time for recovery (i.e than exponential or hyperbolic) a special case of hyperbolic decline (exponent, b = 1)

Flow rate, q = qi Time, [1 + Dit] qi Cumulative Production, Np = ln Di t = qi q -1

(production)

qi q

Di

(Integration of rate, q)

qi Di = ln Np

qi q

Example 3

A well is expected to produce 70 Mstb recoverable reserves and will be on harmonic decline. The initial rate is estimated to be 100 stb/day and the abandonment rate in this region is 5 stb/day. How long will the well last? Determine its annual production.

Solutionq

Di =

ln Np

qi

t =

qi

-1

Di

= 0.004280 per day = 1.56 per year

100/[1 + (1.56)(1)]

Rate (stb/day) 100.00 39.06 24.27 17.61 13.81 11.36 9.65 8.39 7.42 6.65 6.02 5.51 5.07 5.01

Production Cumulative Annual (stb) (stb) 0 0 21,963 21,963 33,081 11,118 40,583 7,502 46,253 5,670 50,812 4,559 54,625 3,813 57,902 3,277 60,776 2,874 63,334 2,559 65,640 2,306 67,739 2,099 69,664 1,926 69,958 294

=[100/0.00428] x ln(100/39.06)

100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

exponential

hyperbolic

harmonic

- decline curve analysisUploaded byvietrv
- Depletion and Decline Curve Analysis in Crude Oil ProductionUploaded byLuis Alberto Izarra
- Decline Curve Analysis.feketeUploaded byKoko Weka
- Analysis of Production Decline Curves.pdfUploaded byWilliam Hu
- UserGuides Tutorials Examples OFM 2014Uploaded byOmar Santamaría Castillo
- Reservoir Petrophysics Class NotesUploaded byginozky
- Day 3 Pm - Production Forecasting & Decline CurvesUploaded byMiguel Angel Toala
- Decline Curve.pdfUploaded byroshanpatelia
- Decline Curve AnalysisUploaded byAban Robert
- Module 8 Relative PermeabilityUploaded bysaladinayubi1234
- Decline Curve AnalysisUploaded byWilson Kuvingua
- Fetkovich Decline Curve Analysis Using Type CurvesUploaded byhorns2034
- Lecture 4_decline Curve AnalysisUploaded bygeber39
- Fundamentals of Basic Reservoir Engineering 2010Uploaded byjollyrex
- 28848005 Reservoir and Production FundamentalsUploaded byquoctram120
- Decline Equations ChapterUploaded byAna Wessel
- Traditional Decline Curve AnalysisUploaded byShri Aayush
- Fetkovich Decline CurvesUploaded byNéstor Valles Villarreal
- Reservoir Stimulation HandBookUploaded bylonely1976
- 1. PETSOC-2003-181-P - Using Decline Curves to Forecast Waterflooded Reservoris_Fundamentals and Field CasesUploaded byFranck Iparraguirre
- APPLICATION OF DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS IN PREDICTING THE LIFE SPAN OF A WELL IN NIGER DELTA RESERVOIRUploaded byFrancis Abulude
- DelineUploaded byDavide Boreaneze
- Basic Level Manual - Version 2.8Uploaded byhorns2034
- Heriot-Watt University - Reservoir SimulationUploaded byTabassum Vahora
- Estimation of Primary Oil Reserves (by J. J. Arps)Uploaded byRPardini2
- MBAL CompleteUploaded byZoha Ahmed
- 10 Nodal System Analysis of Oil and Gas WellsUploaded bySultan_Mehmood_7287
- Reservoir Engineering NotesUploaded byimogen2007
- WaterfloodingUploaded byAdel Al-Enazi
- petroleum production systems.pdfUploaded byBanchao Alex Shu

- Electrical Technology-Load EqualizationUploaded byAnoop Mathew
- Boiler Tube FailureUploaded bynilesh
- (2) Mercruiser Service Manual #32 a 2001 - Newer GM V6 MPIUploaded byfreedland
- Xfi Ecu OperationmanualUploaded bymasakp
- The Basics of Reading a Spark Plug - Honda-TechUploaded bydinamik2t
- Davidi Int- Company Profile Sept 2014 - PotraitUploaded byChaidir Transmission
- Ww6lhtwv6muUOvTZLink-Belt HTC-8690 90-Ton Telescopiv Boom Truck Crane NetworkUploaded byKhawaja Arslan Ahmed
- Fuel consumptionUploaded byOdrzavanje MPEU
- Ed m 700 Install ManualUploaded byAnonymous JR1LSmN0s
- As 2683-2000 Hose and Hose Assemblies for Distribution of Petroleum and Petroleum Products (Excepting LPG)Uploaded bySAI Global - APAC
- Shakti Diesel Generators FINAL1Uploaded bypranjalbaruah8
- Chapter 5 Speed Control of Dc MotorsUploaded byShoaib Shaikh
- 231991663-Piaggio-Service Kopie.pdfUploaded bynickstuff
- Energy UniversityUploaded bySebastián Robayo Conde
- Risk Assessment Storage Tanks IEC 61511 - 61508Uploaded byHakim Yahiaoui
- Development and Use of a Mixed Reactant Fuel Ce 2019 Journal of Power SourceUploaded byLuisa Fernanda
- 30 GNI Trigeneration Case StudyUploaded bysahat
- Krups 888 coffeeUploaded byEnzo Agustín Ferrari
- 40IDF70.pdfUploaded byPepe Trueno
- The Full Report on Investigation of Hydraulic Fracturing in the Karoo Basin of South AfricaUploaded bySCRUPEUSS
- Stirling EnginesUploaded bymorganflexer
- Numerical Investigations on Ethanol Electrolysis for Production of Pure Hydrogen From Renewable SourcesUploaded bySanchez Jorge
- RegO 2014 Product GuideUploaded byJason D Clark
- Softening Lab AnaUploaded byMohd Riezhuan RabaNi
- Bi-Phase SeparatorUploaded by1mmahoney
- Manual de Operación HD605-7Uploaded bytincho_0026
- pranav 1Uploaded byDesign
- HCCI BIOGASUploaded by3vedi
- C-11, C-13 Dissassembly_Assembly 2006.pdfUploaded byMe Noob
- Atomic Four Service ManualUploaded bySteve