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NUME: TUDOR PRENUME: MIHAIELA- CRISTINA

Autorul, Titlul, Revista (cotat ISI), nr., pag., anul, ISSN : Paul De Grauwe, The Financial Crisis and the Future of the Eurozone , Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings, beep n 21, 2010, Department of European Economic Studies, College of Europe. Subiectul : The government debt crisis which erupted in the Eurozone in 2009 and nearly led to the collapse of European monetary union. Ipotezele : One cause of the government debt crisis is the poor performance of the SGP; The government debt crisis in the eurozone is the result of a failure of economic governance; The unsustainable debt accumulation of the private sectors in many eurozone countries; Government profligacy prior to the crisis; As far as animal spirits are concerned, the eurozone is far from being integrated. Metodologia : Baza de date : For figure 1 European Commission, AMECO database and CEPS; For figure 2 Deflation dynamics ( analyzed by Irvin Fisher ( 1932) and later by Minsky ( 1982); For figure 3 European Commission, AMECO database; For figure 4 European Commission, AMECO database; For figure 5 Kannan ( 2009 ); For figure 6 European Commissin, AMECO database. Tehnicile de analiza statistic i previziune : Fig.1: Household and government liabilities in eurozone ( % GDP); Fig.2: Bank and corporate liabilities in the eurozone ( % GDP); Fig.3: Government debt in the eurozone countries ( % of GDP); Fig.4: Relative unit labor costs in eurozone ( average 1970 2010 = 100); Fig.5: Real house prices and growth rate of nominal credit relative to GDP ( % ); Fig.6: Growth rate of bank loans in Euro area. Rezultatele : The government debt/ GDP ratio started increasing very fast after the eruption of the financial crisis; The crisis in the eurozone has mostly to do with the divergent developments in private debt;the latter have much to do with macroeconomic divergences in general; The method of convergence implicit in the SGP should not be the model to impose convergence in other areas of natinal economic policies;this method has not worked well to impose convergence in the budgetary field; A few years of such booming activity was enough to birng prices and wage costs out of line with the rest of the eurozone; Not only national governments bear responsibility for these developments ( because they fail to counteract them by anti-cyclical budgetary policies) but also the monetary authorities ( because they fail to exert a strong control on bank credit); When banks extend too much credit and thereby increase the risk of their balance sheets, national supervisors should intervene. Concluziile referentului : The role of these governments has been overemphasized and the role of the monetary authorities, in particular the ECB, has been under emphasized; The key instructions in the eurozone that can influence national credit movements are the monetary authorities, including the ECB; The European Commissin`s proposals to streghten the stability and grwth pact by adding more sanctions is ill conceived; The Commissin proposals suggest that future governments that intervene to save the private sector should be punished for such wickedness.