Master in Business Administration – Semester 3 MF0010– Security Analysis and Portfolio Management - 4 Credits (Book ID: B1208) Assignment Set

- 1 (60 Marks)
Q.1 Frame the investment process for a person of your age group. Answer: It is rare to find investors investing their entire savings in a single security. Instead, they tend to invest in a group of securities. Such a group of securities is called a portfolio. Most financial experts stress that in order to minimize risk; an investor should hold a well-balanced investment portfolio. The investment process describes how an investor must go about making. Decisions with regard to what securities to invest in while constructing a portfolio, how extensive the investment should be, and when the investment should be made. This is a procedure involving the following five steps: • Set investment policy • Perform security analysis • Construct a portfolio • Revise the portfolio • Evaluate the performance of portfolio 1. Setting Investment Policy: This initial step determines the investor’s objectives and the amount of his investable wealth. Since there is a positive relationship between risk and return, the investment objectives should be stated in terms of both risk and return. This step concludes with the asset allocation decision: identification of the potential categories of financial assets for consideration in the portfolio that the investor is going to construct. Asset allocation involves dividing an investment portfolio among different asset categories, such as stocks, bonds and cash. The asset allocation that works best for an investor at any given point in his life depends largely on his time horizon and his ability to tolerate risk. Time Horizon – The time horizon is the expected number of months, years, or decades that an investor will be investing his money to achieve a particular financial goal. An investor with a longer time horizon may feel more comfortable with a riskier or more volatile investment because he can ride out the slow economic cycles and the inevitable ups and downs of the markets. By contrast, an investor who is saving for his teen-aged daughter’s college education would be less likely to take a large risk because he has a shorter time horizon. Risk Tolerance - Risk tolerance is an investor’s ability and willingness to lose some or all of his original investment in exchange for greater potential returns. An aggressive investor, or one with a high-risk tolerance, is more likely to risk losing money in order to

get better results. A conservative investor, or one with a low-risk tolerance, tends to favour investments that will preserve his or her original investment. The conservative investors keep a "bird in the hand," while aggressive investors seek "two in the bush." While setting the investment policy, the investor also selects the portfolio management style (active vs. passive management). Active Management is the process of managing investment portfolios by attempting to time the market and/or select „undervalued‟ stocks to buy and „overvalued‟ stocks to sell, based upon research, investigation and analysis. Passive Management is the process of managing investment portfolios by trying to match the performance of an index (such as a stock market index) or asset class of securities as closely as possible, by holding all or a representative sample of the securities in the index or asset class. This portfolio management style does not use market timing or stock selection strategies. 2. Performing Security Analysis: This step is the security selection decision: Within each asset type, identified in the asset allocation decision, how does an investor select which securities to purchase. Security analysis involves examining a number of individual securities within the broad categories of financial assets identified in the previous step. One purpose of this exercise is to identify those securities that currently appear to be mispriced. Security analysis is done either using Fundamental or Technical analysis (both have been discussed in subsequent units). Fundamental analysis is a method used to evaluate the worth of a security by studying the financial data of the issuer. It scrutinizes the issuer's income and expenses, assets and liabilities, management, and position in its industry. In other words, it focuses on the „basics‟ of the business. Technical analysis is a method used to evaluate the worth of a security by studying market statistics. Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis disregards an issuer's financial statements. Instead, it relies upon market trends to ascertain investor sentiment to predict how a security will perform. 3. Portfolio Construction: This step identifies those specific assets in which to invest, as well as determining the proportion of the investor’s wealth to put into each one. Here selectivity, timing and diversification issues are addressed. Selectivity refers to security analysis and focuses on price movements of individual securities. Timing involves forecasting of price movement of stocks relative to price movements of fixed income securities (such as bonds). Diversification aims at constructing a portfolio in such a way that the investor’s risk is minimized.

The following table summarizes how the portfolio is constructed for an active and a passive investor.

4. Portfolio Revision: This step is the repetition of the three previous steps, as objectives might change and previously held portfolio might not be the optimal one. 5. Portfolio performance evaluation: This step involves determining periodically how the portfolio has performed over some time period (returns earned vs. risks incurred). Q.2 From the website of BSE India, explain how the BSE Sensex is calculated. Answer: SENSEX: Sensex is the stock market index for BSE. It was first compiled in 1986. It is made of 30 stocks representing a sample of large, liquid and representative companies. The base year of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100. The Bombay Stock Exchange SENSEX (acronym of Sensitive Index) more commonly referred to as SENSEX or BSE 30 is a free-float market capitalization-weighted index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on Bombay Stock Exchange. The 30 component companies which are some of the largest and most actively traded stocks, are representative of various industrial sectors of the Indian economy. Published since January 1, 1986, the SENSEX is regarded as the pulse of the domestic stock markets in India. The base value of the SENSEX is taken as 100 on April 1, 1979, and its base year as 1978-79. On 25 July, 2001 BSE launched DOLLEX-30, a dollar-linked version of SENSEX. As of 21 April 2011, the market capitalisation of SENSEX was about 29,733 billion (US$660 billion) (42.34% of market capitalization of BSE), while its free-float market capitalization was 15,690 billion (US$348 billion). The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) regularly reviews and modifies its composition to be sure it reflects current market conditions. The index is calculated based on a free float capitalization method—a variation of the market capitalisation method. Instead of using a company's outstanding shares it uses its float, or shares that are readily available for trading. The free-float method, therefore, does not include restricted stocks, such as those held by promoters, government and strategic investors. Initially, the index was calculated based on the ‘full market capitalization’ method. However this was shifted to the free float method with effect from September 1, 2003. Globally, the free float market capitalization is regarded as the industry best practice. As per free float capitalization methodology, the level of index at any point of time reflects the free float market value of 30 component stocks relative to a base period. The market capitalization of a company is determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares issued by the company. This market capitalization is multiplied by a free float factor to determine the free float market capitalization. Free

float factor is also referred as adjustment factor. Free float factor represent the percentage of shares that are readily available for trading. The calculation of SENSEX involves dividing the free float market capitalization of 30 companies in the index by a number called index divisor. The divisor is the only link to original base period value of the SENSEX. It keeps the index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all index adjustments arising out of corporate actions, replacement of scrips, etc. The index has increased by over ten times from June 1990 to the present. Using information from April 1979 onwards, the long-run rate of return on the BSE SENSEX works out to be 18.6% per annum, which translates to roughly 9% per annum after compensating for inflation. Following is the list of the component companies of SENSEX as on Feb 26, 2010. Adj. Weight in Code Name Sector Factor Index(%) 50041 ACC Housing Related 0.55 0.77 0 50010 BHEL Capital Goods 0.35 3.26 3 53245 Bharti Airtel Telecom 0.35 3 4 53286 DLF Universal Limited Housing related 0.25 1.02 8 50030 Grasim Industries Diversified 0.75 1.5 0 50001 HDFC Finance 0.90 5.21 0 50018 HDFC Bank Finance 0.85 5.03 0 50018 Hero Honda Motors Ltd. Transport Equipments 0.50 1.43 2 50044 Metal,Metal Products & Hindalco Industries Ltd. 0.7 1.75 0 Mining 50069 Hindustan Lever Limited FMCG 0.50 2.08 6 53217 ICICI Bank Finance 1.00 7.86 4 50020 Infosys Information Technology 0.85 10.26 9 50087 ITC Limited FMCG 0.70 4.99 5 53253 Jaiprakash Associates Housing Related 0.55 1.25 2 50051 Larsen & Toubro Capital Goods 0.90 6.85 0

50052 0 53250 0 53254 1 53255 5 50030 4 50031 2 53271 2 50032 5 50039 0 50011 2 50090 0 52471 5 53254 0 50057 0 50040 0 50047 0 50768 5

Mahindra Limited



Transport Equipments Transport Equipments Information Technology Power Information Technology Oil & Gas Telecom Oil & Gas Power Finance Metal, Metal and Mining Products,

0.75 0.50 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.35 0.50 0.65 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.25 0.55 0.70

1.71 1.71 2.03 2.03 2.03 3.87 0.92 12.94 1.19 4.57 2.39 1.03 3.61 1.66 1.63 2.88 1.61

Maruti Suzuki NIIT Technologies NTPC NIIT ONGC Reliance Communications Reliance Industries Reliance Infrastructure State Bank of India Sterlite Industries

Sun Pharmaceutical Healthcare Industries Tata Consultancy Information Technology Services Tata Motors Tata Power Tata Steel Wipro Transport Equipments Power

Metal, Metal Products & 0.70 Mining Information Technology 0.20

Q.3 Perform an economy analysis on Indian economy in the current situation. Answer: Economic analysis is done for two reasons: first, a company’s growth prospects are, ultimately, dependent on the economy in which it operates; second, share price performance is generally tied to economic fundamentals, as most companies generally perform well when the economy is doing the same. 1. Factors to be considered in economy analysis: The economic variables that are considered in economic analysis are gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, exchange rates, the balance of payments (BOP), the current account deficit, government policy (fiscal and monetary policy), domestic legislation (laws and

regulations), unemployment (the percent of the population that wants to work and is currently not working), public attitude (consumer confidence) inflation (a general increase in the price of goods and services), interest rates, productivity (output per worker), capacity utilization (output by the firm) etc . GDP is the total income earned by a country. GDP growth rate shows how fast the economy is growing. Investors know that strong economic growth is good for companies and recessions or full-blown depressions cause share prices to decline, all other things being equal. Inflation is important for investors, as excessive inflation undermines consumer spending power (prices increase) and so can cause economic Security Analysis and Portfolio Management stagnation. However, deflation (negative inflation) can also hurt the economy, as it encourages consumers to postpone spending (as they wait for cheaper prices). The exchange rate affects the broad economy and companies in a number of ways. First, changes in the exchange rate affect the exports and imports. If exchange rate strengthens, exports are hit; if the exchange rate weakens, imports are affected. The BOP affects the exchange rate through supply and demand for the foreign currency. BOP reflects a country’s international monetary transactions for a specific time period. It consists of the current account and the capital account. The current account is an account of the trade in goods and services. The capital account is an account of the cross-border transactions in financial assets. A current account deficit occurs when a country imports more goods and services than it exports. A capital account deficit occurs when the investments made in the country by foreigners is less than the investment in foreign countries made by local players. The currency of a country appreciates when there is more foreign currency coming into the country than leaving it. Therefore, a surplus in the current or capital account causes the currency to strengthen; a deficit causes the currency to weaken. The levels of interest rates (the cost of borrowing money) in the economy and the money supply (amount of money circulating in the economy) also have a bearing on the performance of businesses. All other things being equal, an increase in money supply causes the interest rates to fall; a decrease causes the interest rates to rise. If interest rates are low, the cost of borrowing by businesses is not expensive, and companies can easily borrow to expand and develop their activities. On the other hand, when the cost of borrowing becomes too high (when the interest rates go up), borrowing may become too costly and plans for expansion are postponed. Interest rates also have a significant effect on the share markets. In very broad terms, share prices improve when interest rates fall and decline when interest rates increase. There are two reasons for that: the “intrinsic value” estimate will increase as interest rates (and the linked discount rate) fall and underlying company profitability will improve, if interest payments reduce. 2. Business cycle and leading coincidental and lagging indicators: All economies experience recurrent periods of expansion and contraction. This recurring pattern of

recession and recovery is called the business cycle. The business cycle consists of expansionary and recessionary periods. When business activity reaches a high point, it peaks; a low point on the cycle is a trough. Troughs represent the end of a recession and the beginning of an expansion. Peaks represent the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession. In the expansion phase, business activity is growing, production and demand are increasing, and employment is expanding. Businesses and consumers normally borrow more money for investment and consumption purposes. As the cycle moves into the peak, demand for goods overtakes supply and prices rise. This creates inflation. During inflationary times, there is too much money chasing a limited amount of goods. Therefore, businesses are able to charge more for their items causing prices to rise. This, in turn, reduces the purchasing power of the consumer. As prices rise, demand slackens which causes economic activity to decrease. The cycle then enters the recessionary phase. As business activity contracts, employers lay off workers (unemployment increases) and demand further slackens. Usually, this causes prices to fall. The cycle enters the trough. Eventually, lower prices stimulate demand and the economy moves into the expansion phase. The performance of an investment is influenced by the business cycle. The direction in which an economy is heading has a significant impact on companies‟ performance and ability to deliver earnings. If the economy is in a recession, it is likely that many business sectors will fail to generate profits. This is because the demand for most products decreases during economic declines, since people have less money with which to purchase goods and services (since high levels of unemployment are common during economic crises). On the other hand, during times of economic prosperity, companies tend to expand their operations and in turn generate higher levels of earnings, as the demand for goods tends to grow. Security Analysis and Portfolio To some extent the business cycle can be predicted as it is cyclical in nature. The prediction can be done using economic indicators. Economic indicators are quantitative announcements (released as data), released at predetermined times according to a schedule, reflecting the financial, economical and social atmosphere of an economy. They are published by various agencies of the government or by the private sector. They are used to monitor the health and strength of an economy and they help to evaluate the direction of the business cycle. Economists use three types of indicators that provide data on the movement of the economy as the business cycle enters different phases. The three types are leading, coincident, and lagging indicators. Leading indicators tend to precede the upward and downward movements of the business cycle and can be used to predict the near term activity of the economy. Thus they can help anticipate rising corporate profits and possible stock market price increases. Examples of leading indicators are: Average weekly hours of production workers, money supply etc. Coincident indicators usually mirror the movements of the business cycle. They tend to change directly with the economy. Example includes industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales etc.

Lagging Indicators are economic indicators that change after the economy has already begun to follow a particular pattern or trend. Lagging Indicators tend to follow (lag) economic performance. Examples: ratio of trade inventories to sales, ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income etc. Q.4 Identify some technical indicators and explain how they can be used to decide purchase of a company’s stock. Answer: A technical indicator is a series of data points that are derived by applying a formula to the price and/or volume data of a security. Price data can be any combination of the open, high, low or closing price over a period of time. Some indicators may use only the closing prices, while others incorporate volume and open interest into their formulae. The price data is entered into the formula and a data point is produced. For example, say the closing prices of a stock for 3 days are Rs. 41, Rs. 43 and Rs. 43. If a technical indicator is constructed using the average of the closing prices, then the average of the 3 closing prices is one data point ((41+43+43)/3=42.33). However, one data point does not offer much information. A series of data points over a period of time is required to enable analysis. Thus we can have a 3 period moving average as a technical indicator, where we drop the earliest closing price and use the next closing price for calculations. By creating a time series of data points, a comparison can then be made between present and past levels. Technical indicators are usually shown in a graphical form above or below a security’s price chart for facilitating analysis. Once shown in graphical form, an indicator can then be compared with the corresponding price chart of the security. Sometimes indicators are plotted on top of the price plot for a more direct comparison. Technical indicators measure money flow, trends, volatility and momentum etc. They are used for two main purposes: to confirm price movement and the quality of chart patterns, and to form buy and sell signals. A technical indicator offers a different perspective from which to analyze the price action. Some, such as moving averages, are derived from simple formulae and they are relatively easy to understand. Others, like stochastics have complex formulae and require more effort to fully understand and appreciate. Technical indicators can provide unique perspective on the strength and direction of the underlying price action. Indicators filter price action with formulae. Therefore they are derivative measures and not direct reflections of the price action. This should be taken into account when analyzing the indicators. Any analysis of an indicator should be taken with the price action in mind. There are two main types of indicators: leading and lagging. A leading indicator precedes price movements; therefore they are used for prediction. A lagging indicator follows price movement and therefore is a confirmation. The main benefit of leading indicators is that they provide early signaling for entry and exit. Early signals can forewarn against a potential strength or weakness. Leading indicators can be used in trending markets. In a market that is trending up, the leading indicator helps identify oversold conditions for buying opportunities. In a market that is trending down, leading indicators can help identify overbought situations for selling opportunities. Some of the more popular leading indicators include Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator.

Lagging indicators follow the price action and are commonly referred to as trendfollowing indicators. Lagging indicators work best when the markets or securities develop strong trends. They are designed to get traders in and keep them in as long as the trend is intact. As such, these indicators are not effective in trading or sideways markets. Some popular trend-following indicators include moving averages and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Technical indicators are constructed in two ways: those that fall in a bounded range and those that do not. The technical indicators that are bound within a range are called oscillators. Oscillators are used as an overbought / oversold indicator. A market is said to be „overbought‟ when prices have been trending higher in a relatively steep fashion for some time, to the extent that the number of market participants „long‟ of the market significantly outweighs those on the sidelines or holding „short‟ positions. This means that there are fewer participants to jump onto the back of the trend. The „oversold’ condition is just the opposite. The market has been trending lower for some time and is running out of „fuel‟ for further price declines. Oscillator indicators move within a range, say between zero and 100, and signal periods where the security is overbought (near 100) or oversold (near zero). Oscillators are the most common type of technical indicators. The technical indicators that are not bound within a range also form buy and sell signals and display strength or weakness in the market, but they can vary in the way they do this. The two main ways that technical indicators are used to form buy and sell signals is through crossovers and divergence. Crossovers occur when either the price moves through the moving average, or when two different moving averages cross over each other. Divergence happens when the direction of the price trend and the direction of the indicator trend are moving in the opposite direction. This indicates that the direction of the price trend is weakening. Technical indicators provide an extremely useful source of additional information. These indicators help identify momentum, trends, volatility and various other aspects in a security to aid in the technical analysis of trends. While some traders just use a single indicator for buy and sell signals, it is best to use them along with price movement, chart patterns and other indicators. A number of technical indicators are in use. Some of the technical indicators are discussed below for the purpose of illustration of the concept: Moving average: The moving average is a lagging indicator which is easy to construct and is one of the most widely used. A moving average, as the name suggests, represents an average of a certain series of data that moves through time. The most common way to calculate the moving average is to work from the last 10 days of closing prices. Each day, the most recent close (day 11) is added to the total and the oldest close (day 1) is subtracted. The new total is then divided by the total number of days (10) and the resultant average computed. The purpose of the moving average is to track the progress of a price trend. The moving average is a smoothing device. By averaging

the data, a smoother line is produced, making it much easier to view the underlying trend. A moving average filters out random noise and offers a smoother perspective of the price action. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): MACD is a momentum indicator and it is made up of two exponential moving averages. The MACD plots the difference between a 26-day exponential moving average and a 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day moving average is generally used as a trigger line. When the MACD crosses this trigger and goes down it is a bearish signal and when it crosses it to go above it, it's a bullish signal. This indicator measures short-term momentum as compared to longer term momentum and signals the current direction of momentum. Traders use the MACD for indicating trend reversals. Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index (RSI) is another of the well-known momentum indicators. Momentum measures the rate of change of prices by continually taking price differences for a fixed time interval. RSI helps to signal overbought and oversold conditions in a security. RSI is plotted in a range of 0-100. A reading above 70 suggests that a security is overbought, while a reading below 30 suggests that it is oversold. This indicator helps traders to identify whether a security’s price has been unreasonably pushed to its current levels and whether a reversal may be on the way. Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic oscillator is one of the most recognized momentum indicators. This indicator provides information about the location of a current Security Analysis and Portfolio Management. Closing price in relation to the period's high and low prices. The closer the closing price is to the period's high, the higher is the buying pressure, and the closer the closing price is to the period's low, the more is the selling pressure. The idea behind this indicator is that in an uptrend, the price should be closing near the highs of the trading range, signaling upward momentum in the security. In downtrends, the price should be closing near the lows of the trading range, signaling downward momentum. The stochastic oscillator is plotted within a range of zero and 100 and signals overbought conditions above 80 and oversold conditions below 20. Q.5 Compare Arbitrage pricing theory with the Capital asset pricing model. Answer: Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT): Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) are two of the most commonly used models for pricing all risky assets based on their relevant risks. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) calculates the required rate of return for any risky asset based on the security’s beta. Beta is a measure of the movement of the security’s return with the return on the market portfolio, which includes all the securities that are available in the world and where the proportion of each security in the portfolio is its market value as a percentage of total market value of all the securities. The problem with CAPM is that such a market portfolio is hypothetical and not observable and we have to use a market index like the S&P 500 or Sensex as a proxy for the market portfolio. However, indexes are imperfect proxies for overall market as no single index includes all capital assets, including stocks, bonds, real estate, collectibles, etc. Another criticism of the CAPM is that the various different proxies that are used for the market portfolio do not fully capture all of the relevant risk factors in the economy. An alternative pricing theory with fewer assumptions, the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), has been developed by Stephen Ross. It can calculate expected return without

taking recourse to the market portfolio. It is a multi-factor model for determining the required rate of return which means that it takes into account a number of economy wide factors that can affect the security prices. APT calculates relations among expected returns that will rule out arbitrage by investors. The APT requires three assumptions: 1) Returns can be described by a factor model. 2) There are no arbitrage opportunities. 3) There are large numbers of securities that permit the formation of portfolios that diversify the firm-specific risk of individual stocks. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a model to explain why capital assets are priced the way they are. William Sharpe, Treynor and Lintner contributed to the development of this model. An important consequence of the modern portfolio theory as introduced by Markowitz was that the only meaningful aspect of total risk to consider for any individual asset is its contribution to the total risk of a portfolio. CAPM extended Harry Markowitz’s portfolio theory to introduce the notions of systematic and unsystematic (or unique) risk. Arbitrage Pricing Theory vs. the Capital Asset Pricing Model The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and the Capital Asset Pricing Model are the two most influential theories on stock and asset pricing today. The APT model is different from the CAPM in that it is far less restrictive in its assumptions. APT allows the individual investor to develop their model that explains the expected return for a particular asset. Intuitively, the APT makes a lot of sense because it removes the CAPM restrictions and basically states that the expected return on an asset is a function of many factors and the sensitivity of the stock to these factors. As these factors move, so does the expected return on the stock - and therefore its value to the investor. However, the potentially large number of factors means that more factor sensitivities have to be calculated. There is also no guarantee that all the relevant factors have been identified. This added complexity is the reason arbitrage pricing theory is far less widely used than CAPM. In the CAPM theory, the expected return on a stock can be described by the movement of that stock relative to the rest of the stock market. The CAPM theory is really just a simplified version of the APT, where the only factor considered is the risk of a particular stock relative to the rest of the stock market - as described by the stock's beta. From a practical standpoint, CAPM remains the dominant pricing model used today. When compared to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the Capital Asset Pricing Model is both elegant and relatively simple to calculate. Q.6 Discuss the different forms of market efficiency. Answer: Forms of Market Efficiency: A financial market displays informational efficiency when market prices reflect all available information about value. This definition of efficient market requires answers to two questions: „what is all available

information? ‟ & „what does it mean to reflect all available information? ‟ Different answers to these questions give rise to different versions of market efficiency. What information are we talking about? Information can be information about past prices, information that is public information and information that is private information. Information about past prices refers to the weak form version of market efficiency, information that consists of past prices and all public information refers to the semistrong version of market efficiency and all information (past prices, all public information and all private information) refers to the strong form version of market efficiency. “Prices reflect all available information” means that all financial transactions which are carried out at market prices, using the available information, are zero NPV activities. The weak form of EMH states that all past prices, volumes and other market statistics (generally referred to as technical analysis) cannot provide any information that would prove useful in predicting future stock price movements. The current prices fully reflect all security-market information, including the historical sequence of prices, rates of return, trading volume data, and other market-generated information. This implies that past rates of return and other market data should have no relationship with future rates of return. It would mean that if the weak form of EMH is correct, then technical analysis is fruitless in generating excess returns. The semi-strong form suggests that stock prices fully reflect all publicly available information and all expectations about the future. “Old” information then is already discounted and cannot be used to predict stock price fluctuations. In sum, the semistrong form suggests that fundamental analysis is also fruitless; knowing what a company generated in terms of earnings and revenues in the past will not help you determine what the stock price will do in the future. This implies that decisions made on new information after it is public should not lead to above-average risk-adjusted profits from those transactions. Lastly, the strong form of EMH suggests that stock prices reflect all information, whether it be public (say in SEBI filings) or private (in the minds of the CEO and other insiders). So even with material non-public information, EMH asserts that stock prices cannot be predicted with any accuracy.

Set- 2
Q.1 Study the intensity of competition in the automobile industry using Michael Porters five factors model. Answer: Michael Porter has written extensively on the issue of competitive strategy. The intensity of competition in an industry determines that industry‘s ability to sustain above-average returns. This intensity of competition can be explained by the following five factors: 1. Threat of new entrants: New entrants put pressure on price and profits. Therefore barriers to entry can be a key determinant of industry‘s profitability. The most attractive segment has high entry barriers and low exit barriers. Although any firm should be able to enter and exit a market, each industry often presents varying levels of difficulty, commonly driven by economies. Manufacturing-based industries are more difficult to enter than many service-based industries. The barriers to entry protect profitable areas for firms and inhibit additional rivals from entering the market. 2. Bargaining power of buyers: The power of buyers describes the impact customers have on an industry. 3. Rivalry between existing competitors: Firms make efforts to establish a competitive advantage over their rivals. The intensity of rivalry varies within each industry. Industries that are ―concentrated, ‖ versus ―fragmented,‖ often display the highest level of rivalry.

4. Threat of substitute products or services: Substitute products are those products that are available in other industries that meet an identical or similar need for the end user. As more substitutes become available and affordable, the demand becomes more elastic since customers have more alternatives. Substitute products may limit the ability of firms within an industry to raise prices and improve margins. 5. Bargaining power of suppliers: An industry that produces goods requires raw materials. This leads to buyer-supplier relationships Depending on where the power lies, suppliers may be able to exert an influence on the producing industry. Because the strength of these five factors varies across industries (and can change over time), industries differ from each other in terms of inherent profitability. These five competitive forces determine industry profitability because they influence the components of return on investment. The strength of each of these factors is a function of industry structure. Fundamental analysts analyze industry structure to assess the strength of the five competitive forces, which in turn determine industry profitability. Q.2 Using financial ratios, study the financial performance of any particular company of your interest. Answer: Financial ratios illustrate relationships between different aspects of a small business's operations. They involve the comparison of elements from a balance sheet or income statement, and are crafted with particular points of focus in mind. Financial ratios can provide small business owners and managers with a valuable tool to measure their progress against predetermined internal goals, a certain competitor, or the overall industry. In addition, tracking various ratios over time is a powerful way to identify trends as they develop. Ratios are also used by bankers, investors, and business analysts to assess various attributes of a company's financial strength or operating results. Ratios are determined by dividing one number by another, and are usually expressed as a percentage. They enable business owners to examine the relationships between seemingly unrelated items and thus gain useful information for decision-making. "They are simple to calculate, easy to use, and provide a wealth of information that cannot be gotten anywhere else," James O. Gill noted in his book Financial Basics of Small Business Success. But, he added, "Ratios are aids to judgment and cannot take the place of experience. They will not replace good management, but they will make a good manager better. They help to pinpoint areas that need investigation and assist in developing an operating strategy for the future." Virtually any financial statistics can be compared using a ratio. In reality, however, small business owners and managers only need to be concerned with a small set of ratios in order to identify where improvements are needed. "As you run your business you juggle dozens of different variables," David H. Bangs, Jr. wrote in his book Managing by the Numbers. "Ratio analysis is designed to help you identify those variables which are out of balance." It is important to keep in mind that financial ratios are time sensitive; they can only present a picture of the business at the time that the underlying figures were prepared. For example, a retailer calculating ratios before and after the Christmas season would get very different results. In addition, ratios can be misleading when taken singly,

though they can be quite valuable when a small business tracks them over time or uses them as a basis for comparison against company goals or industry standards. As a result, business owners should compute a variety of applicable ratios and attempt to discern a pattern, rather than relying on the information provided by only one or two ratios. Gill also noted that small business owners should be certain to view ratios objectively, rather than using them to confirm a particular strategy or point of view. Perhaps the best way for small business owners to use financial ratios is to conduct a formal ratio analysis on a regular basis. The raw data used to compute the ratios should be recorded on a special form monthly. Then the relevant ratios should be computed, reviewed, and saved for future comparisons. Determining which ratios to compute depends on the type of business, the age of the business, the point in the business cycle, and any specific information sought. For example, if a small business depends on a large number of fixed assets, ratios that measure how efficiently these assets are being used may be the most significant. In general, financial ratios can be broken down into four main categories—profitability or return on investment, liquidity, leverage, and operating or efficiency—with several specific ratio calculations prescribed within each. 1. Financial Summary Google reported revenues of $6.77 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2010, an increase of 23% compared to the first quarter of 2009. Google reports its revenues, consistent with GAAP, on a gross basis without deducting traffic acquisition costs (TAC). In the first quarter of 2010, TAC totaled $1.71 billion, or 26% of advertising revenues. Google reports operating income, operating margin, net income, and earnings per share (EPS) on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP measures, as well as free cash flow, an alternative non-GAAP measure of liquidity, are described below and are reconciled to the corresponding GAAP measures in the accompanying financial tables. GAAP operating income in the first quarter of 2010 was $2.49 billion, or 37% of revenues. This compares to GAAP operating income of $1.88 billion, or 34% of revenues, in the first quarter of 2009. Non-GAAP operating income in the first quarter of 2010 was $2.78 billion, or 41% of revenues. This compares to non-GAAP operating income of $2.16 billion, or 39% of revenues, in the first quarter of 2009. GAAP net income in the first quarter of 2010 was $1.96 billion, compared to $1.42 billion in the first quarter of 2009. Non-GAAP net income in the first quarter of 2010 was $2.18 billion, compared to $1.64 billion in the first quarter of 2009. GAAP EPS in the first quarter of 2010 was $6.06 on 323 million diluted shares outstanding, compared to $4.49 in the first quarter of 2009 on 317 million diluted shares outstanding. Non-GAAP EPS in the first quarter of 2010 was $6.76, compared to $5.16 in the first quarter of 2009. Non-GAAP operating income and non-GAAP operating margin exclude the expenses related to stock-based compensation (SBC). Non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP EPS exclude the expenses related to SBC and the related tax benefits. In the first

quarter of 2010, the charge related to SBC was $291 million, compared to $277 million in the first quarter of 2009. The tax benefit related to SBC was $65 million in the first quarter of 2010 and $64 million in the first quarter of 2009. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to GAAP operating income, operating margin, net income, and EPS are included at the end of this release. International Revenues - Revenues from outside of the United States totaled $3.58 billion, representing 53% of total revenues in the first quarter of 2010, compared to 53% in the fourth quarter of 2009 and 52% in the first quarter of 2009. Excluding gains related to our foreign exchange risk management program, had foreign exchange rates remained constant from the fourth quarter of 2009 through the first quarter of 2010, our revenues in the first quarter of 2010 would have been $112 million higher. Excluding gains related to our foreign exchange risk management program, had foreign exchange rates remained constant from the first quarter of 2009 through the first quarter of 2010, our revenues in the first quarter of 2010 would have been $242 million lower. Revenues from the United Kingdom totaled $842 million, representing 13% of revenues in the first quarter of 2010, compared to 13% in the first quarter of 2009.In the first quarter of 2010, we recognized a benefit of $10 million to revenues through our foreign exchange risk management program, compared to $154 million in the first quarter of 2009. Paid Clicks – Aggregate paid clicks, which include clicks related to ads served on Google sites and the sites of our Ad Sense partners, increased approximately 15% over the first quarter of 2009 and increased approximately 5% over the fourth quarter of 2009. Cost-Per-Click – Average cost-per-click, which includes clicks related to ads served on Google sites and the sites of our Ad Sense partners, increased approximately 7% over the first quarter of 2009 and decreased approximately 4% over the fourth quarter of 2009. TAC - Traffic Acquisition Costs, the portion of revenues shared with Google’s partners, increased to $1.71 billion in the first quarter of 2010, compared to TAC of $1.44 billion in the first quarter of 2009. TAC as a percentage of advertising revenues was 26% in the first quarter of 2010, compared to 27% in the first quarter of 2009. The majority of TAC is related to amounts ultimately paid to our Ad Sense partners, which totaled $1.45 billion in the first quarter of 2010. TAC also includes amounts ultimately paid to certain distribution partners and others who direct traffic to our website, which totaled $265 million in the first quarter of 2010. Other Cost of Revenues - Other cost of revenues, which is comprised primarily of data center operational expenses, amortization of intangible assets, content acquisition costs as well as credit card processing charges, increased to $741 million, or 11% of revenues, in the first quarter of 2010, compared to $666 million, or 12% of revenues, in the first quarter of 2009. Operating Expenses - Operating expenses, other than cost of revenues, were $1.84 billion in the first quarter of 2010, or 27% of revenues, compared to $1.52 billion in the first quarter of 2009, or 28% of revenues.

Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) – In the first quarter of 2010, the total charge related to SBC was $291 million, compared to $277 million in the first quarter of 2009.We currently estimate SBC charges for grants to employees prior to April 1, 2010 to be approximately $1.2 billion for 2010. This estimate does not include expenses to be recognized related to employee stock awards that are granted after March 31, 2010 or non-employee stock awards that have been or may be granted. Operating Income - GAAP operating income in the first quarter of 2010 was $2.49 billion, or 37% of revenues. This compares to GAAP operating income of $1.88 billion, or 34% of revenues, in the first quarter of 2009. Non-GAAP operating income in the first quarter of 2010 was $2.78 billion, or 41% of revenues. This compares to non-GAAP operating income of $2.16 billion, or 39% of revenues, in the first quarter of 2009. Interest Income and Other, Net – Interest income and other, net increased to $18 million in the first quarter of 2010, compared to $6 million in the first quarter of 2009. Income Taxes – Our effective tax rate was 22% for the first quarter of 2010. Net Income – GAAP net income in the first quarter of 2010 was $1.96 billion, compared to $1.42 billion in the first quarter of 2009. Non-GAAP net income was $2.18 billion in the first quarter of 2010, compared to $1.64 billion in the first quarter of 2009. GAAP EPS in the first quarter of 2010 was $6.06 on 323 million diluted shares outstanding, compared to $4.49 in the first quarter of 2009 on 317 million diluted shares outstanding. Non-GAAP EPS in the first quarter of 2010 was $6.76, compared to $5.16 in the first quarter of 2009. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures – Net cash provided by operating activities in the first quarter of 2010 totaled $2.58 billion, compared to $2.25 billion in the first quarter of 2009. In the first quarter of 2010, capital expenditures were $239 million, the majority of which was related to IT infrastructure investments, including data centers, servers, and networking equipment. Free cash flow, an alternative non-GAAP measure of liquidity, is defined as net cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures. In the first quarter of 2010, free cash flow was $2.35 billion. We expect to continue to make significant capital expenditures. A reconciliation of free cash flow to net cash provided by operating activities, the GAAP measure of liquidity, is included at the end of this release. Cash – As of March 31, 2010, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities were $26.5 billion. On a worldwide basis, Google employed 20,621 full-time employees as of March 31, 2010, up from 19,835 full-time employees as of December 31, 2009. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include statements regarding our plans to heavily invest in innovation, our expected stock-based compensation charges and our plans to make significant capital expenditures. Actual results may differ materially from the results predicted, and reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. The potential risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from the results predicted include, among others, unforeseen changes in our hiring patterns and our need to expend capital to accommodate the growth of the

business, as well as those risks and uncertainties included under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009, which is on file with the SEC and is available on our investor relations website at and on the SEC website at Additional information will also be set forth in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2010, which we expect to file with the SEC in May 2010. All information provided in this release and in the attachments is as of April 15, 2010,and Google undertakes no duty to update this information.

Q.3 How is your view of a company’s shares different when viewing technically and when viewing fundamentally. Answer: Differences between Fundamental and Technical analysis: 1. Charts vs. Financial statements: A technical analyst approaches a security from the charts, while a fundamental analyst studies the financial statements. Technical analysis is the study of price action and trend, while fundamental analysis focuses on economic supply and demand relationships, in order to calculate the intrinsic value of a

financial instrument. Technically, instruments in an uptrend are candidates to be purchased, while instruments in a downtrend are candidates to be sold. Fundamentally, instruments that are below intrinsic value are undervalued and are candidates to be purchased, while instruments that are above intrinsic value are overvalued and are candidates to be sold. By looking at the financial statements (the income statement, the cash flow statement, and the balance sheet) a fundamental analyst determines a company’s value. A fundamental analyst tries to uncover the company’s intrinsic value. The investment decision based on fundamental analysis is: if the price of a stock trades below its intrinsic value, it is a good investment. Technical analyst sees no reason for analyzing the company’s fundamentals as he believes that they are already accounted for in the stock’s price. All the information that a technical analyst desires is there in the price of the securities that can be found in the charts. 2. Time horizon: Fundamental analysts take a longer term view of the market when compared to the technical analysts. Technical analysis has a timeframe of weeks, days or even minutes whereas fundamental analysis often looks at data over a number of years. The difference in the time frames is because of the different investing styles of fundamental and technical analysis. It can take a long time for an undervalued stock, uncovered by fundamental analysis, to reach its ―correct‖ value. Fundamental analysis assumes that if the short-term market is wrong (in valuing a stock at less than its intrinsic value) the price of the stock will correct itself over the long run. This long run can be a number of years in some cases. Also, the data that is analyzed by the fundamental analysts are released over a long period of time. Balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement, earnings per share that the fundamental analysts use are not published on a daily basis. In contrast, the price and volume data that the technical analysts use are generated on a continuous basis. Thus, part of the reason that the fundamental analysts use a long-term timeframe, is therefore due to the fact that the data they use to analyze a stock is generated much more slowly than the price and volume data used by technical analysts. 3. Trading vs. investing: The goals of technical and fundamental analysis are different. In general, fundamental analysis is used to make an investment, whereas technical analysis is used for a trade. While the distinction between investment and trading is not very clear cut, we can say that investors buy assets that they believe can increase in value, while traders buy assets that they believe they can sell to somebody else at a greater price. 4. Cause vs. effect: While both approaches have the same objective (that is, to predict the direction of prices), the fundamental analyst studies the causes of market movements, while the technical analyst studies the effect of market movements. The fundamental analyst needs to know why the prices have moved. The technical analyst, on the other hand, attempts to measure the projected effect of the price movements. Although technical analysis and fundamental analysis may seem to be poles apart, many market participants have achieved some success by combining the two. Thus a fundamental analyst may use technical analysis techniques to figure out the best time to enter into an undervalued security. Often, this opportunity is present when the security is severely oversold. By timing entry into a security, the gains on the investment can be greatly improved. Similarly, some technical traders might look at fundamentals to add strength to a technical signal. For example, if a sell signal is obtained after technical

analysis, a technical trader might look at fundamental data before going ahead with the decision. Q.4 Show how duration of a bond is calculated and how is it used. Answer: Duration of Bonds: Bond Duration is a measure of bond price volatility, which captures both price and reinvestment risk and which is used to indicate how a bond will react in different interest rate environments. The duration of a bond represents the length of time that elapses before the average rupee of present value from the bond is received. Thus duration of a bond is the weighted average maturity of cash flow stream, where the weights are proportional to the present value of cash flows. Formally, it is defined as: Duration = D = {PV (C1) x 1 + PV (C2) x 2+ ----- PV (Cn) x n} / Current Price of the bond Where PV (Ci) is the present values of cash flow at time i. Steps in calculating duration: Step 1: Find present value of each coupon or principal payment. Step 2: Multiply this present value by the year in which the cash flow is to be received. Step 3: Repeat steps 1 & 2 for each year in the life of the bond. Step 4: Add the values obtained in step 2 and divide by the price of the bond to get the value of Duration. Example: Calculate the duration of an 8% annual coupon 5 year bond that is priced to yield 10% (i.e. YTM = 10%). The face value of the bond is Rs.1000. Annual coupon payment = 8% x Rs. 1000 = Rs. 80 At the end of 5 years, the principal of Rs. 1000 will be returned to the investor. Therefore cash flows in year 1-4= Rs. 80. Cash flow in year 5= Principal + Interest = Rs. 1000 + Rs. 80 = Rs. 1080 (t) Annual PVIF Present Explanation Time Explanation Cash @10% Value x PV of flow of cash Annual flow Cash Flow PV(Ct) 1 2 3 4 5 80 80 80 80 1080 0.90909 0.82645 0.75131 0.68301 0.62092 72.73 66.12 60.10 54.64 670.59 =80x0.90909 =80x0.82645 =80x0.75131 =80x0.68301 =1080 x0.62092 72.73 132.24 180.3 218.56 3352.95 3956.78 = 1 x 72.73 = 2 x 66.12 = 3 x 60.1 = 4 x 54.64 = 5 x 670.59

Total 924.18 Price of the bond= Rs 924.18 The proportional change in the price of a bond: (ΔP/P) = - {D/ (1+ YTM)} x Δ y Where Δ y =change in Yield, and YTM is the yield-to-maturity.

The term D / (1+YTM) is also known as Modified Duration. The modified duration for the bond in the example above = 4.28 / (1+10%) = 3.89 years. This implies that the price of the bond will decrease by 3.89 x 1% = 3.89% for a 1% increase in the interest rates. Example A bond having Rs.1000 face value and 8 % coupon bond with 4 years to maturity is priced to provide a YTM of 10%. Find the duration of the bond. Ans: P0 = 80 x PVIFA 10%, 4 years + 1000 x PVIFA 10%, 4 years = 80 x 3.170 + 1000 x .683 = 937 rc = 80/937 = 0.857 (current yield) rd = YTM n = 4 years Duration = × PVIFA (rd, n) (1+rd) + [1 – ] n dc rr rd rc = 3.170 (1.10) + [1 –] 4 .10 .0854 .10 .0854 = 2.977 + .584 = 3.561 years Generally speaking, bond duration possesses the following properties:  Bonds with higher coupon rates have shorter durations.  Bonds with longer maturities have longer durations.  Bonds with higher YTM lead to shorter durations.  Duration of a bond with coupons is always less than its term to maturity because duration gives weight to the interim payments. A zero-coupon bond’s duration is equal to its maturity. Q.5 Show with the help of an example how portfolio diversification reduces risk. Answer: Portfolio diversification: 'Don't put all your eggs in one basket' is a wellknown proverb, which summarizes the message that there are benefits from diversification. If you carry your breakable items in several baskets there is a chance that one will be dropped, but you are unlikely to drop all your baskets on the same trip. Similarly, if you invest all your wealth in the shares of one company, there is a chance that the company will go bust and you will lose all your money. Since it is unlikely that all companies will go bust at the same time, a portfolio of shares in several companies is less risky. This may sound like the idea of risk-pooling, which we discussed earlier in this chapter, and risk-pooling is certainly an important reason for diversification. We will use the notion of risk-pooling to explain some forms of financial behaviour, but a full understanding of portfolio diversification involves a slightly wider knowledge of the nature of risk than what is involved in coin-tossing. The key difference between risk in the real world of finance and the risk of coin-tossing is that many of the potential outcomes are not independent of other outcomes. If you and I toss a coin, the probability of yours turning up heads is independent of the probability of my throwing a head. However, the return on an investment in, say, BP is not independent of the return on an investment in Shell. This is because these two companies both compete in the same industry. If BP does especially well in attracting new business, it may be at the expense of Shell. So high profits at BP may be associated with low profits at Shell, or vice versa. On the other hand, all oil companies

might do well when oil prices are high and badly when they are low. The important matter here is that the fortunes of these two companies are not independent of each other. The fact that the risks of individual investments may not be independent has important implications for investment allocations, or what is now called portfolio theory. Investments can be combined in different proportions to produce risk and return characteristics that cannot be achieved through any single investment. As a result, institutions have grown up to take advantage of the benefits of diversification. Diversified portfolios may produce combinations of risk and return that dominate non-diversified portfolios. This is an important statement that requires a little closer investigation. That investigation will help to identify the circumstances under which diversification is beneficial. It will also clarify what we mean by the word 'dominate'. Table 2 sets out two simple examples. In both there are two assets that an investor can hold, and there are two possible situations which are assumed to be equally likely. Thus, there is a probability of 0.5 attached to each situation and the investor has no advance knowledge of which is going to happen. The two situations might be a high exchange rate and a low exchange rate, a booming and a depressed economy, or any other alternatives that have different effects on the earnings of different assets. Table 2: Combinations of risk and return

Assets differ in expected return and variability in returns. Part (i) illustrates the return on two assets in two different situations. Asset A has a high return in situation 2 and a low return in situation 1. The reverse is true for asset B. A portfolio of both assets has the same expected return but lower risk than a holding of either asset on its own. In (ii) both assets have a high return in situation 2 and a low return in situation 1. For the riskaverse investor asset A dominates asset B. Consider part (i) of the table. In this case both assets have the same expected return (20 per cent) and the same degree of risk. (The possible range of outcomes is between 10 and 30 per cent on each asset.) If all that mattered in investment decisions were the risk and return of individual shares, the investor would be indifferent between assets A and B. Indeed, if the choice were between holding only A or only B, all investors should be indifferent (whether they were risk-averse, risk-neutral, or risk-loving) because the risk and expected return are identical for both assets. However, this is not the end of the story, because the returns on these assets are not independent. Indeed, there is a perfect negative correlation between them: when one is high the other is low, and vice versa. What would a sensible investor do if permitted to hold some combination of the two assets? Clearly, there is no possible combination that will change the overall expected

return, because it is the same on both assets. However, holding some of each asset can reduce the risk. Let the investor decide to hold half his wealth in asset A and half in asset B. His risk will then be reduced to zero, since his return will be 20 per cent whichever situation arises. This diversified portfolio will clearly be preferred to either asset alone by risk-averse investors. The risk-neutral investor is indifferent to all combinations of A and B because they all have the same expected return, but the risklover may prefer not to diversify. This is because, by picking one asset alone, the risklover still has a chance of getting a 30 per cent return and the extra risk gives positive pleasure. Risk-averse investors will choose the diversified portfolio, which gives them the lowest risk for a given expected rate of return, or the highest expected return for a given level of risk. Diversification does not always reduce the riskiness of a portfolio, so we need to be clear what conditions matter. Consider the example in part (ii) of Table 2. As in part (i), both assets have an expected return of 20 per cent. But asset B is riskier than asset A and it has returns that are positively correlated with A's. Portfolio diversification does not reduce risk in this case. Risk-averse investors would invest only in asset A, while risklovers would invest only in asset B. Combinations of A and B are always riskier than holding A alone. Thus, we could say that for the risk-averse investor asset A dominates asset B, as asset B will never be held so long as asset A is available. The key difference between the example in part (ii) of Table 2 and that in part (i) is that in the second example returns on the two assets are positively correlated, while in the former they are negatively correlated [Note]. The risk attached to a combination of two assets will be smaller than the sum of the individual risks if the two assets have returns that are negatively correlated. Diversifiable and non-diversifiable risk Not all risk can be eliminated by diversification. The specific risk associated with any one company can be diversified away by holding shares of many companies. But even if you held shares in every available traded company, you would still have some risk, because the stock market as a whole tends to move up and down over time. Hence we talk about market risk and specific risk. Market risk is non-diversifiable, whereas specific risk is diversifiable through risk-pooling. Box 3 discusses the issue of whether all firms should diversify the activities in order to reduce risk. Beta It is now common to use a coefficient called beta to measure the relationship between the movements in a specific company's share price and movements in the market. A share that is perfectly correlated with an index of stock market prices will have a beta of 1. A beta higher than 1 means that the share moves in the same direction as the market but with amplified fluctuations. A beta between 1 and 0 means that the share moves in the same direction as the stock market but is less volatile. A negative beta indicates that the share moves in the opposite direction to the market in general. Clearly, other things being equal, a share with a negative beta would be in high demand by investment managers, as it would reduce a portfolio's risk.

The capital asset pricing model, or CAPM, predicts that the price of shares with higher betas must offer higher average returns in order to compensate investors for their higher risk. For example, two stocks whose returns move in exactly together have a coefficient of +1.0. Two stocks whose returns move in exactly the opposite direction have a correlation of -1.0. To effectively diversify, you should aim to find investments that have a low or negative correlation. The banking stocks (or the technology stocks) would have a high positive correlation as their share prices are driven by common factors. As you increase the number of securities in your portfolio, you reach a point where you have diversified as much as is reasonably possible. When you have about 30 securities in your portfolio you have diversified most of the risk. Q.6 Study the performance of any emerging market of your choice. Answer: Emerging market: With emerging market economies like India and China growing at nearly 10%, you may be feeling pain from all the criticism from pundits and advisers that you are a myopic, short-sighted American for not allocating enough to emerging market equities. According to Vanguard, the average allocation to emerging market equities among US household investors is still only 6%. Shouldn't the percentage of your equity portfolio invested in emerging markets equities be roughly in line with the proportionate share of emerging-market stocks to total global stock-market capitalization – or around 10% to 15% of an investor's total equity portfolio? It seems natural to expect that the powerful economic growth of emerging markets such as Brazil and China will lead to higher stock market returns than in the slower growing markets such as the U.S. and Europe. So should emerging market equities be a bigger part of your portfolio? In fact, US household investors may, at least for the moment, be properly weighted in emerging markets. For the following reasons higher potential growth may not justify investing heavily right now in emerging market equities and instead you may want to be gradually increasing your allocation over time: First, 12% economic growth in a country like India has not necessarily meant 12% market returns. While there is certainly reasonable evidence to support expectations of long-term growth in markets like India, China, Brazil, etc., as reported in this Wall Street Journal article - studies suggest that strong economic growth often does not translate into strong stock returns. One study, which looked at market returns in 32 nations since the 1970s, concluded that stock gains and economic performance can diverge dramatically. University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter found, for example, that stocks in Sweden posted a mean return of better than 8% a year from 1970 through 2002, even though GDP grew at an annualized pace of just 1.8%. In contrast, while GDP expanded more than 5% annually in South Korea from 1988 to 2002, the mean stock return was only 0.4% a year. 'A healthy economy isn't a guarantee that established companies will attract enough capital and labor to expand sales and earnings strongly—partly because they have to compete with newer ventures for resources,' Dr. Ritter says. More basically, since markets are largely efficient, investors have long ago anticipated potential for equities in places like China. Right now, by many measures, it would

appear that valuations for US and MSCI Emerging Markets Index on a trailing P/E basis are roughly inline. Second, even if average annual returns from emerging markets exceed developed markets, emerging markets are still materially more volatile, and this volatility will not just keep you awake at night, it will erode your returns over time through the process of volatility drag. My colleague explains in this article how volatility drag will reduce your returns. Right now, the 3-year standard deviation of emerging market returns is 32.83 versus 24.27 for the S&P500, a difference that translates into roughly a 3% drag on your cumulative return. And while the 60-day volatility on US Large-Cap Equities has now dropped all the way down to 10.99%, the 60-day emerging market volatility actually rose slightly this quarter to 19.55% (see chart below for period ending December 31, 2010): Click to enlarge

Third, emerging market indexes are less efficient investment vehicles – which makes a big difference over time for prudent, long-term investors. Most emerging market funds are significantly more expensive than US funds - often hundreds of basis points more. Our firm recommends low cost funds such as iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index (EEM), and Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO). But even these low-cost funds face higher costs than US equity funds. Compare Vanguard's VWO at 0.27 expense ratio vs. Vanguard’s S&P500 Index Fund (VOO) at 0.06%. If you are investing within a fund family such as Fidelity, your choice for emerging markets is an actively managed fund with an annual cost of 1.14% versus Fidelity's S&P500 Index at only 0.10% (This is why if you really seek more exposure to emerging markets economic growth, a more efficient way to gain exposure is through multinationals traded on US exchanges – S&P500 companies derive about 50% of their revenue from abroad, with about a third of that coming from emerging markets). So higher economic growth may not lead to higher returns on emerging markets equities, volatility drag is likely to erode much of this potential higher return, and higher

investment costs are certain to drag the return down even further. In our dynamic asset allocation process, emerging markets allocations are likely to grow along with other equity allocations over the next few years assuming volatility continues to decline. But, right now, it appears that the average American household is not necessarily being naive and xenophobic when they choose to be “underweighted” in emerging market equities.