STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012

Fiscal Affairs Program National Conference of State Legislatures William T. Pound, Executive Director 7700 East First Place Denver, CO 80230 (303) 364-7700 444 North Capitol Street, N.W., Suite 515 Washington, D.C. 20001 (202) 624-5400 www.ncsl.org

The National Conference of State Legislatures is the bipartisan organization that serves the legislators and staffs of the states, commonwealths and territories. NCSL provides research, technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most pressing state issues and is an effective and respected advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal system. NCSL has three objectives: • • • To improve the quality and effectiveness of state legislatures. To promote policy innovation and communication among state legislatures. To ensure state legislatures a strong, cohesive voice in the federal system.

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Contents
FY 2013 Revenue Performance ...................................................................................................................... 2 Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2013 ........................................................................................... 4 Areas of Spending Over Budget ...................................................................................................................... 4 Summary of the State Fiscal Situation ............................................................................................................ 5 Projected Return to Peak Revenue Collections ............................................................................................... 6 State General Fund Revenue Recovery: A Historical Comparison. ................................................................. 7

TABLES & FIGURES Figure 1. Peronal Income Tax Performance………………………………..………………………………...2 Figure 2. General Sales Tax Performance…………………………………..………………………………...2 Figure 3. Corporate Income Tax Performance……..……………………..………………………………...3 Figure 4. Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2013………………………………....………………4 Figure 5. Return to Peak Revenue Collections…..…………………………………………..………………6 Figure 6. General Fund Revenue Recovery Growth Rates.…………………………………..………………8 Table 1. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2013: Personal Income Tax ......................................... 9 Table 2. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2012: General Sales & Use ........................................ 13 Table 3. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2012: Corporate Income............................................ 17 Table 4. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2012: Severance ......................................................... 21 Table 5. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2012: Real Estate Transfer ......................................... 24 Table 6. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2012: Other............................................................... 27 Table 7. Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2012............................................................................ 31 Table 8. Areas of Spending Significantly Over Budget in FY 2013 ............................................................... 34 Table 9. Summary of State Fiscal Situations ................................................................................................. 37 Table 10. Return or Projected Return to Peak Revenue Collections ............................................................. 41

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012
State budgets continue their slow to moderate rate of recovery. A fall 2012 survey of state legislative fiscal officers found solid revenue performance in most states, although a few reported underperformance in individual tax categories. Generally, it appears that state budgets are in line with budgeted estimates through the first few months of fiscal year (FY) 2013. The slowly improving economic situation across the states has led most officials to describe their current fiscal This report is based on data collected situation as stable. in the fall of 2012 from legislative fiscal officers in all 50 states and the Despite these positive fiscal trends, federal District of Columbia and includes deficit reduction actions, increasing information on: program pressures, international debt crises, • State revenue performance; and the impact from recent storms will • Revenue outlook for the continue to challenge lawmakers as they remainder of the fiscal year; begin their new legislative sessions. • Areas of spending over budget; • A summary of state fiscal While there are signs of improvement, the situations; turnaround has been uneven across the • Return to peak revenue nation. Although half of the states expect to collections; and return to peak revenue levels by the close of • A historical comparison of the this fiscal year, several others are still recovery of state general fund awaiting a return to peak levels. Some states revenues. are uncertain when that will occur. Three and a half years following the official end of the recession, state officials face the prospect that slow and steady growth may be the “new normal.” With the unpredictability of recent fiscal years, stable is not necessarily a bad position for states but enough uncertainty lingers on the horizon to create a fragile situation for state budgets.

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STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012

FY 2013 Revenue Performan 3 nce
Revenue p performance re emained solid for most states through the first quarter of FY 2013. d e More state reported str es rength rather t than weakness in the three m s major taxes---- personal income, sa and corpo ales orate income. T majority of states report that they ex The xpect to meet or exceed gen neral fund revenue targets. O Idaho, M Only Maine and Ne Jersey reported all three ew tax categories are perfor rming below fo forecast. of apshot of recen state revenu performanc for persona nt ue ce al The rest o this section provides a sna income, sa and corpo ales orate income t taxes. Informa ation on the pe erformance of other taxes is f s 1 included f those states that provided it. for s Personal I Income Taxes s Personal in ncome tax col llections accou for nearly 34 percent of state own-sou revenues. unt f urce . 2 Nine state do not levy a broad-based personal inco tax. es d ome

Twelve states and the Distric of Columbi reported tha T ct ia at pe ersonal incom tax collectio exceeded t latest me ons the es stimate (see fig 1). Ten o these states had not revise gure of ed th forecasts. Iowa and the District of Co heir olumbia raised d th target and still saw collec he s ctions surpass estimates. Hawaii reporte collections a H ed above a lowere estimate. ed Fi ifteen states sa collections come in on target, even aw th hough Delawa Maryland, Mississippi, North Dakota are, , a, Oregon and Rh O hode Island ha raised their estimates. ad r California redu C uced its estima since the be ate eginning of FY 2013. Y Thirteen states saw personal income tax co T ollections belo target. Ariz ow zona, Idaho an nd Kansas were fai K iling to meet p projections tha had been re at evised downw ward.

Table 1 co ontains more information o personal inc i on come tax perfo formance. General Sales Taxes General sa and use ta represent about 31 perc of state ow ales axes cent wnsource rev venues. Five sta ates—Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshir and Oregon re n—do not levy a state sales t y tax.

Thirteen states and the Distr of Columb saw genera T rict bia al sa tax collect ales tions exceed th revenue estimate (see figu he ure 2) In 11 of the states, the f ). ese forecast had n been revise not ed. Io and the District of Columbia were ex owa D xceeding

1 2

Revenue performance data is not available f Nebraska and New Mexico. for d Alaska, Flo orida, Nevada, So outh Dakota, Tex Washington and Wyoming d not levy a pers xas, do sonal income tax. . New Hamp pshire and Tenne essee do not levy a personal incom tax, but tax in me nterest income an dividends. nd Tennessee did provide infor rmation on the p performance of th personal incom tax. he me

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012|3 increased es stimates. Haw was exceed lowered e waii ding estimates.

Fifteen state saw collections coming in on target. C es n California, Mar ryland, Mississippi, North Dako and Wyom were meeting targets t had been revised upwar ota ming that rd. Arizona, Rh hode Island an Washington were meetin reduced est nd ng timates. In 15 states, sales tax reve enues were com in below estimate. Ida was failing to ming w aho g meet a targe that had bee raised, whi Connecticu and New Y et en ile ut York reported revenues we below a red ere duced forecast t.

Table 2 contains mo informatio on general sales tax perfo ore on ormance. Corpo orate Income T Taxes On ave erage, corpora income tax account for about 5 perc of state ta collections. ate xes r cent ax Alaska and New Ha ampshire, how wever, depend on them for m than 10 percent of more collections. Six state es—Nevada, O Ohio, South D Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyomin , ng— do not levy a corpor income ta t rate ax.

Eighteen sta saw corpo ates orate income t receipts ab tax bove estimate, including Iow wa, Kansas, Ma aryland and W Virginia, w West which raised t their forecasts. Hawaii reported . revenues above a lowered forecast (see Figure 3). d Fourteen sta saw collec ates ctions coming g in on target Delaware, N t. North Dakota, , Oregon, Rh hode Island an South nd Carolina we meeting ta ere argets that had d been revised upward, whi California d ile had reduced its estimate. d Corporate income tax col llections were below the la atest target in 10 states and the District of Columbia. Idaho was failing to m a target th had been meet hat raised and A Arizona, Conn necticut and the District of Columbia were below a reduced estim mate.

Table 3 contains mo informatio on corporat income tax performance. ore on te . Other Taxes States also rely on a variety of mis scellaneous tax for revenue These inclu taxes on oi and xes e. ude il gas pro oduction, real estate transfer tobacco, m rs, meals and room insurance p ms, premiums, gambli estates an others. ing, nd

Two states r reported sever rance taxes per rforming abov estimate. E ve Eight states saw w severance ta coming in on target, an in nine stat these taxes were coming in axes n nd tes below the la atest estimate.

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STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012

Se eventeen state and the District of Colum reported real estate tran es mbia nsfer taxes co oming in on target or above expectations. Only four st e tates—Hawaii Maine, New i, w Je ersey and Penn nsylvania—rep ported transfe taxes below the current fo er orecast. Se even states saw other miscel w llaneous taxes performing a above estimate Examples e. in nclude gaming taxes in Nevada and the fr g ranchise tax in Texas. n In five states, other tax sourc were comin in on target, while 10 sta reported n ces ng ates th collections were below t latest targe hat s the et.

• •

Tables 4, 5 and 6 conta more infor ain rmation on th taxes. hese

Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2013 e f
Revenue p performance is a key indicat of the state fiscal situatio so it is imp s tor e on, portant to get a sense of fu uture expectati ions. For most states, reven continue their slow clim out of the nues mb trough of the recession, and the outlo for the rem ook mainder of the budget year indicates e d n om when no states reported continued improvement. However, in a change fro last year w pessimism a handful of state officials believe they a unlikely to meet the rev m, f s are o venue forecast in FY 2013.

Thirty-three sta and the D T ates District of Columbia reporte that revenu are stable ed ues an are likely to meet FY 2013 revenue est nd o timates (See figure 4). Officials in seve states are concerned abo meeting O en out th projection heir ns. Fi iscal directors in six states d described their revenue r ou utlook as opti imistic for the remainder of the fiscal yea e f ar. Their optimism is based on c T m collections tha are at ex xceeding proje ections. Officials in fou states—Alas Maine, N Jersey and O ur ska, New d New N York—are pessimistic a e about the reve enue outlook.

• •

Table 7 pr rovides further details on state general fun revenue nd outlooks f the remain of the fisc year. for nder cal

Areas of Spending Over Bud f g dget
Generally state spending is in line wit budgeted estimates, thou more state appear to be g th ugh es e facing spen nding overrun than at this time last year Eighteen sta reported t at least on ns r. ates that ne area of spe ending is signi ificantly over b budget in FY 2013 compar to 11 state in FY 2012. red es Twenty-tw states reported that no a wo areas of the bu udget are overs spent at this ti ime, and 11 states indicated that it is unknown if any program areas are over budget for FY 2013. Some s Y e examples o spending ar over budg include: of reas get

Medicaid and other health ca programs are over budg in 10 states compared to M o are get s, o six at this time last year. Texas notes that w when balancin the 2012-13 biennial ng

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012|5 budget, Medicaid was underfunded by approximately $4.3 billion. West Virginia estimates that Medicaid is $180 million over budget in FY 2013, and Maine notes that despite declining caseloads, Medicaid spending continues to increase. California, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Nevada, and Virginia also report overspending on Medicaid or other health care benefits. Education spending, either K-12 or higher, is over budget in five states. Kansas reported that additional funding will be needed to maintain the current level of base state aid per pupil expenditures, and New Hampshire indicated that charter school appropriations are estimated to exceed budgeted appropriations by 58 percent. California, Maryland and Montana also indicated that education spending was over budget. Idaho, Maryland, Mississippi, and Vermont reported that corrections programs were over budget thus far in FY 2013. The western states of California, Montana and Wyoming indicated that fire suppression costs were over budget due largely to wildfires this past summer.

• •

Table 8 provides additional information on areas of spending significantly over budget.

Summary of the State Fiscal Situation
The slowly improving economic situation in the states has caused legislative fiscal directors to describe their fiscal situation as being generally stable. Officials frequently used terms such as “improving” and “stable growth” to describe the current fiscal situation in their states. Also, a small but increasing number of officials used more positive descriptions such as “strong” and “cautiously optimistic” to describe their states. At the same time, a few officials used less optimistic terms such as “precarious” and “underperforming” to describe their fiscal situation and the use of the term “budget gap” has crept back into the lexicon. Examples from officials in a few states include: • • • Alaska officials reported that they may have their first deficit since FY 2005. In California, the situation is stable, with projected operating surpluses in the outyears, a notable change from the state’s recent multi-billion gap situation. Officials in Hawaii describe their fiscal situation as “razor’s edge” because the projected general fund balance and reserves are inadequate and susceptible to any unanticipated economic or fiscal shocks. Officials in Delaware, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Oregon are cautiously optimistic regarding their respective fiscal situations. In Kansas, officials noted that the state economy is showing consistent, but slow growth. Officials in Maine describe their fiscal situation as precarious with little on the horizon that would result in an improvement. North Carolina officials reported that revenues have stabilized and are returning to long-term growth trends. Officials in Oklahoma noted that their fiscal situation is stable with a sense of optimism for continued improvement and stability.

• • • • •

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STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012

Table 9 pr rovides summ informatio on the curr state fisca situation. mary on rent al

Projecte Return to Peak Re ed t evenue Col llections
One way t view the he to ealth of state fi finances is to c consider when revenues are expected to n return to t their previous peak levels. T is a pretty simple and straightforward comparison: This y d When did nominal state revenue collections peak a when are they expected to reach or d e and d exceed tha previous lev There are some obvious limitations t this assessm since it at vel? e to ment does not a adjust for base or rate chang nor accoun for the effec of inflation But from a e ges nt cts n. policymak ker’s point of view, it can be helpful to kn when coll v e now lections are pr rojected to reach pre-recession level ls. marked the pe year of nom eak minal revenue collections in all but a han e n ndful of states. . FY 2008 m After year-over-year dec clines in FY 20 and FY 20 009 010,state revenue collection slowly bega ns an to recover and by the close of FY 201 at least half of the states w have retur 13 f will rned to peak s. i od the or collections While this is certainly goo news, it is tempered by t fact that fo the other half 3 of the states a return to peak is not pr rojected until at least FY 20 or beyond (see figure 5) 014 d ). wing ts The follow highlight provide informatio about the return or on r projected return to peak revenue k collections s.

Twenty-five sta have or T ates ar projected to return to re o pe revenue co eak ollections by th close of FY 2013. Six he st tates returned to peak in FY Y 20 011, 13 in FY 2012 and six Y x ad dditional state anticipate a es re eturn in the cu urrent fiscal ye ear. Si states expec a return to ix ct pe collections in FY 2014, eak while another four project a return in FY 2 w f 2015. Officials in Ma and Arizo do not pro O aine ona oject a return t peak collections until FY to Y 20 and FY 2018, respectiv 016 vely. Officials in Maine note that the retu to peak e urn re evenue levels was delayed by significant in w y ncome and est tax reduct tate tions passed in n 20 and imple 011 emented in FY 2013. Y

3

It is impor rtant to note that the predictions a based on curr economic fo are rent orecasts and existi tax law, which ing

are subject to change. o

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012|7 • Eleven states currently do not have predictions for when tax collections will return to peak levels. In Louisiana and Utah, for example, a return to peak is not on the current forecast horizon. In Michigan, FY 2014 revenue is forecasted to be 13.3 percent below the previous peak of FY 2000. In Alaska, the District of Columbia and North Dakota, a return to peak is not applicable. In the District of Columbia and North Dakota, revenues never fell on a year-over-year basis, while officials in Alaska noted that the state is unlikely to ever see the revenue levels experienced in FY 2008 when oil prices were very high and production was higher on a downward trend line.

State General Fund Revenue Recovery: A Historical Comparison.
It has been repeated time and time again: The Great Recession was the longest and worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. But what about the recovery after the recession? Unlike previous recoveries—where it was common to see a robust upturn—the post-Great Recession period feels more like malaise than a recovery for states. One way to demonstrate how different the current recovery has been from the past is to look at state general fund revenue collections both in the length of time to return to peak (cumulatively) 4 and by comparing the percentage growth rates by state to those of previous recoveries. Cumulative State General Fund Revenues Return to Peak While the individual state expectations for return to peak revenue collections provide valuable insight on the wide variations of recovery across the U.S., looking at the cumulative return to peak allows for historical comparisons. • The recession of July 1990 to March 1991: State general fund revenue collections peaked at the end of FY 1990 and as the country entered the recession, cumulative state general fund revenues fell on a year-over-year basis before returning to peak in just one fiscal year, FY 1992. The recession of March to November 2001: General fund revenue collections reached their then peak in FY 2001, fell in FY 2002, and returned to peak two years later in FY 2004. The recession of December 2007 to June 2009: As previously mentioned, FY 2008 marked the peak year of nominal revenue collections, then—in contrast to previous recessions—state general fund collections experienced two consecutive years of yearover-year declines in FY 2009 and FY 2010. Despite steady growth in FY 2011 and FY 2012, state general fund revenues had only inched closer to their pre-recession peak. FY 2013 cumulative general fund revenue collections are projected to finally

4

Additional information on state general fund revenues, economic downturns and recoveries will be available in a

forthcoming brief.

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STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 re eturn to the FY 2008 peak— Y —five years sin state reven began the precipitous nce nues eir s de ecline.

General F Fund Revenue Recovery Gr e rowth Rates Legislative fiscal officers were asked h the rate of general fund revenue grow since the e s how f d wth end of the Great Recess e sion compares to previous economic recov veries. In man cases this ny analysis is complicated due to tax rate d e/base changes however, th information is still useful s; his n l in demons strating the hi istorical signif ficance of the G Great Recessio on.

Officials in 27 states reported that O d ge eneral fund re evenue growth rates h ar lower than growth rates f re from pr revious recove eries (see figur 6). re Current recovery growth rate are C es in n-line with his storic norms in 10 n st tates. Officials in fou states noted that O ur re evenue recover is above his ry storic no orms. In nine states and the Distric of n a ct Columbia state officials could not C e make the comp m parison or it w not was ap pplicable—mo often due to tax ost po olicy changes.

However, these number understate t tepid recov experienc by the stat For rs the very ced tes. example, i Arizona, wh statisticall the current recovery is str in hile ly ronger than pr revious recoveries, the depth of the Great Rec , f cession makes it easier to ge s enerate higher recovery r growth rat In Califor tes. rnia, New Ham mpshire and N York a co New omparison is n possible du not ue to tax poli changes. icy The devas stating impact of the Great Recession and subsequent p d protracted reco overy is not one that will re emain fond in memories of state lawmak n f kers; and, unfo ortunately, it is not one that t will be eas to erase. sy

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012|9 TABLE 1. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2013: PERSONAL INCOME TAX
Revised State/ Jurisdiction Alabama Through September No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment Estimates for FY 2013, which began Oct. 1, 2012, have not yet been revised to reflect actual collections for FY 2012. Not Levied September October October The personal income tax is 5 percent above FY 2012 collections. The revised forecast is based on Legislative Analyst’s Office’s (LAO) November 2012 Fiscal Outlook report and does not include formal monthly projections, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates. Net FY 2012 and FY 2013 personal income tax collections are below 2012-13 budget act assumptions. Voters passed the Governor's tax initiative (Proposition 30) in November 2012. Proposition 30 increases sales and use taxes for all taxpayers and personal income taxes for high-income taxpayers. Because of the new revenue accrual policies relating to Proposition 30, the books will not be closed on FY 2012 until at least a year from now. As of October 2012, personal income tax receipts for FY 2013 are $422 million (2.9 percent) above Department of Finance monthly projections. Comparisons of the LAO revenue forecast to the budget act revenue forecast are listed in Figure 9, page 21, of the Fiscal Outlook report. Year-to-date, actual figures for all taxes are slightly above estimates but within the margin of error. For FY 2013, the September 2012 forecast was $7 million higher than the June 2012 forecast.

Alaska Arizona Arkansas California

Colorado

September

Connecticut Delaware

October September

District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii

September Not Levied September September Growth of 2.7 percent but below the budget target of approximately 5 percent. The state's Council on Revenues makes an aggregate projection for general fund revenues. Preliminary actual tax collection data is available for the individual income tax.

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STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 1. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2013: PERSONAL INCOME TAX
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment The personal income tax is below estimate by 0.1 percent ($560,100). Year-to-date, total tax collections are down 0.8 percent ($6.9 million). Overall, the large economically related tax sources are performing about as expected.

State/ Jurisdiction Idaho

Through October

No

Up

Down

Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas

September October October October

Officials revised revenue estimates on Nov. 4, 2012, and the revised estimate is $60.8 million (2.1 percent) below the previous estimate. Officials lowered the overall estimate by only $5.2 million or 0.1 percent. While not a major change, there were significant shifts between revenue sources.

Kentucky Louisiana Maine

September October October The revenue forecast was updated on Dec. 1, 2012. Overall, the forecast was revised downward by $35 million. Year-to-date, total personal income collections are tracking $63 million below benchmark. September was the first month this fiscal year in which income tax collections came in slightly above monthly benchmarks ($8 million above the monthly benchmark). Through September, year-todate total tax collections are $95 million below benchmarks. Below estimate due to weak October collections, otherwise on-target. The most recent state budget forecast was in February 2012. The next forecast will be in December 2012. Through September, revenues in all major categories are exceeding forecasted amounts. The forecast was recently revised in November 2012, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates. For the current fiscal year, the personal income tax is exceeding expectations. The personal income tax is 8.5 percent higher than forecast.

Maryland Massachusetts

September September

Michigan Minnesota

October September

Mississippi

October

Missouri Montana

October October

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 11 TABLE 1. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2013: PERSONAL INCOME TAX
Revised State/ Jurisdiction Nebraska Through October No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment Because revisions to the forecast were made Oct. 26, 2012, there has not been enough time to evaluate performance. Not Levied Not Levied September The personal income tax is below the forecasted growth target of 5.7 percent. All major tax revenue sources for FY 2013 are underperforming the rather robust growth rates (as recalculated by Office of Legislative Services and based upon its understanding of FY 2012 final collections) necessary to achieve target amounts certified by the executive in June. Overall growth of 8.4 percent above FY 2012 levels is required, but through September, the current overall growth is only 1.9 percent. Preliminary, unofficial revenue growth for FY 2012 was below 3 percent. Receipts are not yet available for FY 2013. September September The forecast is expected to be revised down in the mid-year update. Through September, general fund revenue collections are above a $4.79 billion target by $1 million.

Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey

New Mexico New York North Carolina

North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania

September October September September September Year-to-date, FY 2013 total general fund collections were above the official estimate by 0.2 percent. The forecast was revised on Nov. 9, 2012, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates. Not Levied September Not Levied October Tennessee levies a limited personal income tax on interest and dividends only. The personal income tax is performing moderately above estimate.

Rhode Island

October

South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah

October

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STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 1. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2013: PERSONAL INCOME TAX
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment Officials are hopeful it is a timing issue for the month targets. Overall, collections are on target with the current, July 2012, adopted forecast (a new forecast will be made available in January 2013). Withholding is down and is related in part to two fewer deposit days in September; non-withholding is up slightly. Year-to-date, overall growth for the first quarter is 0.4 percent, against a forecast of 2.7 percent. Not Levied September Personal income is above forecast by $3.2 million. As of Sept. 30, 2012, total general fund revenue is $4.6 million below estimate. Not Levied 28 10 5 13 15 13

State/ Jurisdiction Vermont

Through October

No

Up

Down

Virginia

September

Washington West Virginia

Wisconsin Wyoming Total

October

Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2012.

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 13 TABLE 2. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: GENERAL SALES & USE
Revised State/ Jurisdiction Alabama Through September No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment Estimates for FY 2013, which began Oct. 1, 2012, have not yet been revised to reflect actual collections for FY 2012. Not Levied September October October The general sales tax is 4.4 percent below forecast. The revised forecast is based on Legislative Analyst’s Office’s (LAO) November 2012 Fiscal Outlook report and does not include formal monthly projections, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates. Net FY 2012 and FY 2013 sales and use tax collections are above 2012-13 budget act assumptions. Voters passed the Governor's tax initiative (Proposition 30) in November 2012. Proposition 30 increases sales and use taxes for all taxpayers and personal income taxes for high-income taxpayers. Because of the new revenue accrual policies relating to Proposition 30, the books will not be closed on FY 2012 until at least a year from now. As of October 2012, sales and use tax receipts are $5 million (0.1 percent) below Department of Finance monthly projections. Comparisons of the LAO revenue forecast to the budget act revenue forecast are listed in Figure 9, page 21, of the Fiscal Outlook report. Year-to-date, actual figures for all taxes are slightly above estimates but within the margin of error.

Alaska Arizona Arkansas California

Colorado

September

Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii

October Not Levied September September September September Growth of 3.5 percent but below the budget target of approximately 5 percent. The state's Council on Revenues makes an aggregate projection for general fund revenues. Preliminary actual tax collection data is available for the general excise tax.

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STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 2. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: GENERAL SALES & USE
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment The sales tax is below estimate by 1.4 percent ($5.6 million). Year to date, total tax collections are down 0.8 percent ($6.9 million). Overall, the large economically related tax sources are performing about as expected. However, the sales tax is somewhat weaker than hoped, while corporate income is somewhat stronger.

State/ Jurisdiction Idaho

Through October

No

Up

Down

Illinois

September

Indiana Iowa Kansas

October October October Officials revised revenue estimates on Nov. 4, 2012, and lowered the overall estimate by only $5.2 million or 0.1 percent. While not a major change, there were significant shifts between revenue sources.

Kentucky Louisiana Maine

September October October The revenue forecast was updated on Dec. 1, 2012. Overall, the forecast was revised downward by $35 million.

Maryland Massachusetts

September September Year-to-date, sales and use tax collections are tracking $21 million below benchmarks. Collections have consistently come in under benchmark since the beginning of the fiscal year. Through September, year-to-date total tax collections are $95 million below benchmarks.

Michigan Minnesota

October September The most recent state budget forecast was in February 2012. The next forecast will be in December 2012. Through September, revenues in all major categories are exceeding forecasted amounts. The forecast for the sales tax was revised slightly upward in November. Because of the recent revision, all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates.

Mississippi

October

Missouri Montana

October Not Levied

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 15 TABLE 2. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: GENERAL SALES & USE
Revised State/ Jurisdiction Nebraska Through October No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment Because revisions to the forecast were made Oct. 26, 2012, there has not been enough time to evaluate performance.

Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey

August Not Levied September The sales tax is below the forecasted growth target of 6.3 percent. All major tax revenue sources for FY 2013 are underperforming the rather robust growth rates (as recalculated by Office of Legislative Services and based upon its understanding of FY 2012 final collections) necessary to achieve target amounts certified by the executive in June. Overall growth of 8.4 percent above FY 2012 levels is required, but through September, the current overall growth is only 1.9 percent. Preliminary, unofficial revenue growth for FY 2012 was below 3 percent. Receipts are not yet available for FY 2013. September September The forecast is expected to be revised down in the mid-year update. Through September, general fund revenue collections are above a $4.79 billion target by $1 million

New Mexico New York North Carolina

North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania

September October September Not Levied September Year-to-date, FY 2013 total general fund collections were above the official estimate by 0.2 percent. The forecast was revised on Nov. 9, 2012, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates. The sales tax is tax is performing moderately above estimate.

Rhode Island

October

South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee

October September September Sales tax collections are slightly above forecast.

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STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 2. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: GENERAL SALES & USE
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment Sales, motor vehicle sales, natural gas, oil production, business franchise, and insurance tax collections all exceeded estimates in FY 2012, which ended on Aug. 31, 2012.

State/ Jurisdiction Texas

Through September

No

Up

Down

Utah Vermont

October October Overall, collections are on target with the current, July 2012 adopted forecast (a new forecast will be available in January 2013). Year-to-date, sales tax growth is 4.2 percent compared to a forecast of 1.7 percent. Year-to-date, overall growth for the first quarter is 0.4 percent, against a forecast of 2.7 percent. Forecast reflects a relatively small downward adjustment. This information is based on the November 2012 revenue forecast, which is pretty close to the revenue forecast in September 2012. The sales tax is $2.5 million over estimate. As of Sept. 30, 2012, total general fund revenue is $4.6 million below estimate.

Virginia

September

Washington

October

West Virginia

September

Wisconsin Wyoming Total

October September 31 9 6 14 15 15

Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2012.

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 17 TABLE 3. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: CORPORATE INCOME
Revised State/ Jurisdiction Alabama Through September No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment Estimates for FY 2013, which began Oct. 1, 2012, have not yet been revised to reflect actual collections for FY 2012. The official revised forecast will be released in December. Corporate income is 0.1 percent below forecast. The revised forecast is based on Legislative Analyst’s Office’s (LAO) November 2012 Fiscal Outlook report and does not include formal monthly projections, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates. While the net FY 2012 and FY 2013 corporation tax forecast is below 2012-13 budget act assumptions, Proposition 39, passed by voters in November 2012, will partially offset that weak performance beginning in FY 2013. As of October 2012, corporation tax receipts are $277 million (18.7 percent) below Department of Finance monthly projections. Comparisons of the LAO revenue forecast to the budget act revenue forecast are listed in Figure 9, page 21, of the Fiscal Outlook report. Year-to-date, actual figures for all taxes are slightly above estimates but within the margin of error. For FY 2013, the September 2012 forecast was $7.3 million higher than the June 2012 forecast.

Alaska Arizona Arkansas California

October September October October

Colorado

September

Connecticut Delaware

October September

District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii

September September September September The state's Council on Revenues makes an aggregate projection for general fund revenues. Preliminary actual tax collection data is available for corporate income tax. The corporate income tax is below estimate by 13.2 percent ($6.9 million). Year-todate, total tax collections are down 0.8 percent ($6.9 million).

Idaho

October

18 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 3. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: CORPORATE INCOME
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment Overall, the large economically-related tax sources are performing about as expected. However, the sales tax is somewhat weaker than hoped, while corporate income is somewhat stronger.

State/ Jurisdiction Illinois

Through September

No

Up

Down

Indiana Iowa Kansas

October October October The revised estimate is $70 million (25.9 percent) above the previous estimate. Officials revised revenue estimates on Nov. 4, 2012, and lowered the overall estimate by only $5.2 million or 0.1 percent. While not a major change, there were significant shifts between revenue sources

Kentucky Louisiana Maine

September October October The revenue forecast was updated on Dec. 1, 2012. Overall, the forecast was revised downward by $35 million. Year-to-date, corporate and business tax collections are generally on target, tracking $1 million above benchmark. July collections were $20 million above the monthly benchmark. However, officials have seen collections diminish through August and September, tracking $18 million below the monthly benchmark for September. Through September, year-todate total tax collections are $95 million below benchmarks. The most recent state budget forecast was in February 2012. The next forecast will be in December 2012. Through September, revenues in all major categories are exceeding forecasted amounts. The forecast was recently revised in November 2012, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates. The corporate income tax is 21 percent higher than forecast. Because revisions to the forecast were made Oct. 26, 2012, there has not been enough time to evaluate performance.

Maryland Massachusetts

September September

Michigan Minnesota

October September

Mississippi

October

Missouri Montana Nebraska

October October October

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 19 TABLE 3. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: CORPORATE INCOME
Revised State/ Jurisdiction Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey September September Through No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment Corporate income is below forecast by 1.3 percent. The corporate income tax is below the forecasted growth target of 26.2 percent. All major tax revenue sources for FY 2013 are underperforming the rather robust growth rates—as recalculated by Office of Legislative Services and based upon its understanding of FY 2012 final collections—necessary to achieve target amounts certified by the executive in June. Overall growth of 8.4 percent above FY 2012 levels is required, but through September, the current overall growth is only 1.9 percent. Preliminary, unofficial revenue growth for FY 2012 was below 3 percent. Receipts are not yet available for FY 2013. September September The forecast is expected to be revised down in the mid-year update. Through September, general fund revenue collections are above a $4.79 billion target by $1 million. Not Levied Revenue from Ohio's commercial activity tax, a gross receipts tax that replaced a tax on corporate income, is on target. Collections for the first quarter are above estimates by over 80 percent. Year-to-date, FY 2013 total general fund collections were above the official estimate by 0.2 percent. The forecast was revised on Nov. 9, 2012, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates. Not Levied September Not Levied October

Not Levied

New Mexico New York North Carolina

North Dakota Ohio

September

Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania

September September September

Rhode Island

October

South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah

October

20 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 3. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: CORPORATE INCOME
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment Corporate income tax collections are over target by $4 million. Overall, collections are on target with the current, July 2012, adopted forecast (a new forecast will be made available in January 2013). Tobacco, financial activities and telecommunications are dragging down corporate income performance. Year-todate, overall growth for the first quarter is 0.4 percent, against a forecast of 2.7 percent. Not Levied Washington levies a business and occupation or gross receipts tax on business income rather than an actual corporate income tax. Corporate income is $6.8 million over estimate. As of Sept. 30, 2012, total general fund revenue is $4.6 million below estimate. Not Levied 29 10 6 18 14 11

State/ Jurisdiction Vermont

Through October

No

Up

Down

Virginia

September

Washington

West Virginia

September

Wisconsin Wyoming Total

October

Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2012.

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 21 TABLE 4. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: SEVERANCE
Revised State/ Jurisdiction Alabama Through September No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment Estimates for FY 2013, which began Oct. 1, 2012, have not yet been revised to reflect actual collections for FY 2012. The official revised forecast will be released in December. Both production and price of oil are lower than the forecast, so the revenue forecast is likely to be revised downward. Not Available Not Levied Not Levied September Year-to-date, actual figures for all taxes are slightly above estimates but within the margin of error. Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied September Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied Not Available Not Levied Not Levied October The revised estimate is $19.7 million (16.4 percent) below the previous estimate. Officials revised revenue estimates on Nov. 4, 2012, and lowered the overall estimate by only $5.2 million or 0.1 percent. While not a major change, there were significant shifts between revenue sources.
1

Alaska

October

Arizona Arkansas California Colorado

Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas

Kentucky Louisiana Maine

September October October No collections have been budgeted in the near-term. The revenue forecast was updated on Dec. 1, 2012. Overall, the forecast was revised downward by $35 million.

22 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 4. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: SEVERANCE
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment
1

State/ Jurisdiction Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi

Through

No

Up

Down

Not Levied Not Levied October Not Levied October The forecast was recently revised in November 2012, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates. Not Levied October Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied Receipts are not yet available for FY 2013. Not Levied Not Levied September Not Available September No forecast is available. The severance tax is below estimate partially because of significant payments on eligible drilling incentives that offset tax remittances. Natural gas prices have remained, until recently, well below benchmark estimates for the year. Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied Not Available September September September Sales, motor vehicle sales, natural gas, oil production, business franchise, and insurance tax collections all exceeded estimates in FY 2012, which ended on Aug. 31, 2012. Oil and gas production is stable.

Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma

Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas

Utah

October

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 23 TABLE 4. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: SEVERANCE
Revised State/ Jurisdiction Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia September Through No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment
1

Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied The severance tax is $24.4 million below estimate. As of Sept. 30, 2012, total general fund revenue is $4.6 million below estimate. Not Levied September 17 2 1 2 8 9 One full month of data is currently available.

Wisconsin Wyoming Total
1

According to the Commerce Clearing House State Tax Guide, 39 states collect severance taxes under a variety of different tax titles. Many of these either account for a relatively small portion of general fund collections, are not be deposited into the general fund or may not be forecasted. For more information on severance tax rates and collections please see: http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/budget/2011-state-severance-tax-collections.aspx

Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2012.

24 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 5. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: REAL ESTATE TRANSFER
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment Estimates for FY 2013, which began Oct. 1, 2012, have not yet been revised to reflect actual collections for FY 2012. Not Levied Not Levied Not Available Not Levied Not Levied October September For FY 2013, the September 2012 forecast was $1.4 million higher than the June 2012 forecast.
1

State/ Jurisdiction Alabama

Through September

No

Up

Down

Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware

District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii

September September Not Levied September The state's Council on Revenues makes an aggregate projection for general fund revenues. Real estate transfer is included in aggregate projection, but no preliminary monthly data is available. Not Levied Not Available Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied October October showed improvement, but still under budget. The revenue forecast was updated on Dec. 1, 2012. Overall, the forecast was revised downward by $35 million.

Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine

Maryland Massachusetts Michigan

September Not Levied October

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 25 TABLE 5. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: REAL ESTATE TRANSFER
Revised State/ Jurisdiction Minnesota Through September No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment The most recent state budget forecast was in February 2012. The next forecast will be in December 2012. Through September, revenues in all major categories are exceeding forecasted amounts. Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied Not Levied Quarterly real estate transfer revenue has not been reported at this time. September September Real estate transfer is above forecast by 3.6 percent. The real estate transfer tax is below the forecasted growth target of 27.7 percent. All major tax revenue sources for FY 2013 are underperforming the rather robust growth rates (as recalculated by Office of Legislative Services and based upon its understanding of FY 2012 final collections) necessary to achieve target amounts certified by the executive in June. Overall growth of 8.4 percent above FY 2012 levels is required, but through September, the current overall growth is only 1.9 percent. Preliminary, unofficial revenue growth for FY 2012 was below 3 percent. Not Levied September The forecast is expected to be revised down in the mid-year update. A real estate transfer tax is levied but it is locally administered. The state does receive a share of the tax proceeds, but they are deposited into a dedicated special trust fund for natural heritage preservation; so, it is not a general fund revenue source. Not Levied Not Available September Not Levied September Year-to-date, FY 2013 total general fund collections were above the official estimate by 0.2 percent. No forecast is available.
1

Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey

New Mexico New York North Carolina

North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania

26 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 5. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: REAL ESTATE TRANSFER
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment The forecast was revised on Nov. 9, 2012, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates.
1

State/ Jurisdiction Rhode Island

Through October

No

Up

Down

South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont

October Not Levied September Not Levied Not Levied October Overall, collections are on target with the current, July 2012, adopted forecast (a new forecast will be made available in January 2013). Year-to-date, overall growth for the first quarter is 0.4 percent, against a forecast of 2.7 percent. Forecast reflects a relatively small upward adjustment. This information is based on the November 2012 revenue forecast, which is pretty close to the revenue forecast in September 2012. As of Sept. 30, 2012, total general fund revenue is $4.6 million below estimate. Performance data is not available.

Virginia

September

Washington

October

West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Total
1

September October Not Levied 18 5 1 7 11 4

According to the Commerce Clearing House State Tax Guide, 37 states and the District of Columbia collect real estate transfer taxes. Many of these account for a relatively small portion of general fund collections, are not be deposited into the general fund or may not be forecasted. For more information on real estate transfer tax rates and collections please see: http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/budget/real-estate-transfer-taxes.aspx

Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2012.

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 27 TABLE 6. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: OTHER
Revised State/ Jurisdiction Alabama Alaska Petroleum production /royalties October Tax Through No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment

No Response The official revised forecast will be released in December. Both production and price of oil are lower than the forecast, so the revenue forecast is likely to be revised downward. No Response No Response No Response No Response No Response Gross Receipt September For FY 2013, the September 2012 forecast was $5.8 million less than the June 2012 forecast. No Response Highway Safety Fees Motor Fuel September September Below forecast because of an anomaly reflecting a freeze on the rate. The state's Council on Revenues makes an aggregate projection for general fund revenues. Preliminary actual tax collection data is available for the “other” taxes, which include tobacco, alcohol franchise and numerous other smaller categories. Above forecast by 22 percent ($6.1 million). Year-to-date, total tax collections are down 0.8 percent ($6.9 million). No Response Gaming October

Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware

District of Columbia Florida Georgia

Hawaii

Tobacco, Alcohol, franchise and numerous others

September

Idaho

Product & Misc.

October

Illinois Indiana

28 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 6. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: OTHER
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment All revised slightly upward.

State/ Jurisdiction Iowa

Tax Inheritance, Insurance Premium, Cigarette, Tobacco, Beer, Franchise

Through October

No

Up

Down

Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Unspecified September

No Response No Response No Response No Response No Response Year-to-date, other tax collections are tracking $12 million below benchmarks. Through September, year-todate total tax collections are $95 million below benchmarks. No Response No Response Gaming October Gaming remains flat. The forecast was recently revised in November 2012, so all revenues are "on target" for the revised estimates. No Response No Response Misc. October Because revisions to the forecast were made Oct. 26, 2012 there has not been enough time to evaluate performance.

Michigan Minnesota Mississippi

Missouri Montana Nebraska

Nevada

Gross Gaming

October

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 29 TABLE 6. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: OTHER
Revised State/ Jurisdiction New Hampshire Tax Meals and rentals, tobacco, liquor, interest and dividends, communica tions, as well as other miscellaneo us revenue sources. Transfer & Inheritance Through September No Up Down Above Estimate Performance On Target Below Estimate Comment Overall, other taxes were below forecast by approximately 0.4 percent through September. Specifically, the meals and rental tax was above forecast by 7.7 percent, tobacco below by 10.9 percent, interest and dividends above by 4.9 percent and the communication tax was below by 11.5 percent. Below the targeted growth of 12.9 percent. All major tax revenue sources for FY 2013 are underperforming the rather robust growth rates (as recalculated by Office of Legislative Services and based upon its understanding of FY 2012 final collections) necessary to achieve target amounts certified by the executive in June. Overall growth of 8.4 percent above FY 2012 levels is required, but through September, the current overall growth is only 1.9 percent. Preliminary, unofficial revenue growth for FY 2012 was below 3 percent. Receipts are not yet available for FY 2013. September Above estimate due to large fines received as a result of lawsuits against two major banks.

New Jersey

September

New Mexico New York

Rents and Royalties Misc. Receipts, Estate

North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Cigarette Commercial Activity Motor Vehicle Collections October

Oklahoma

September

Year to date, slightly below estimate.

30 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 6. PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR TAX CATEGORIES IN FY 2012: OTHER
Revised Performance Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Comment

State/ Jurisdiction Oregon Pennsylvania

Tax

Through

No

Up

Down

Inheritance

September

Year-to-date, FY 2013 total general fund collections were above the official estimate by 0.2 percent. No Response No Response No Response

Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Gasoline September September

Sales, motor vehicle sales, natural gas, oil production, business franchise, and insurance tax collections all exceeded estimates in FY 2012, which ended on August 31, 2012. No Response No Response No Response

Utah Vermont Virginia Washington Business & Occupation Property October

Washington levies a business and occupation or gross receipts tax on business income rather than an actual corporate income tax. Forecast reflects a relatively small downward adjustment. This information is based on the November 2012 revenue forecast, which is pretty close to the revenue forecast in September 2012. No Response No Response No Response 15 4 3 7 5 10

West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Total

Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2012.

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 31 1 TABLE 7. REVENUE OUTLOO FOR THE REMAINDER O FY 2012 A OK OF
State e/Jurisdiction Alabama Alask ka Arizo ona Arka ansas Calif fornia Colo orado Conn necticut Dela aware Distr of Columbia rict The revenue estimates are very conservat and take e tive into accou the possibili of sequestrat unt ity tion at the federal leve The District of Columbia g el. t government is inextricabl linked to federal governmen spending. ly nt Potential l large reductions in federal spen s nding will impact District revenues. Reflects th November 20 Fiscal Outlook revenue he 012 forecast. Pessimis stic Concern ned Stable e Optimist tic Com mments

Flori ida Geor rgia Because G Georgia has an a amended budge process, et there is adequate time to adjust for colle ections to meet a more acc curate forecast. There are a number of anomalies in first quarter collections, bu the state is ut pacing wit the nation— th —slow but steady growth. In y the event t the state do not meet its projected 5.3 that oes s percent gro owth target for FY 2013, the g r governor has already issu budget inst ued tructions to pre epare 3 percent reductions to the amende budget in order to bring s ed the project tion in-line wit collections an national th nd trend grow in the 2 per wth rcent to 3 perce range. This ent will allow an adjusted for recast that the state can expect to attain. Due to ear estimates of potential losses in 3rd and rly f s 4th quarte revenue as a r er result of tax credits available for installa ation of photov voltaic systems, there is a possibility of not meeting the forecast. g There is not likely to be a budget proble because the em Legislature appropriated b e below the Janu executive uary forecast.

Haw waii

Idaho

Illino ois India ana Iowa a Currently exceeding forec cast, but mindf that the ful tax expiration of the federal t cuts could significantly venue as Iowa is a federal dedu s uctibility state reduce rev (federal tax paid can be deducted from Iowa xes m income). The newly revised FY 2013 estimates are virtually y e unchanged from the origi estimate. d inal

Kans sas

32 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 7. REVENUE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF FY 2012

State/Jurisdiction Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts

Pessimistic

Concerned

Stable

Optimistic

Comments

Corporate strength may offset weakness in the sales and personal income tax. Most major taxes were below projections for the first third of FY 2013.

Stable but concerned. The administration announced the possibility of a future revenue downgrade in its first quarter update to the legislature.

Michigan Minnesota Revenues have exceeded the forecasted amount by $145 million (4 percent) for the first quarter of FY 2013. State general funds continue to grow over the prior year.

Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire

Currently at 3.8 percent above projections.

During the 2012 legislative session various changes were made to business taxes, as well as the interest and dividends tax and the communication services tax. These changes have the potential to decrease overall tax revenue by several million dollars in FY 2013. Prior to the occurrence of Hurricane Sandy, the Office of Legislative Services believed that FY 2013 certified targets would be difficult to achieve. The Office of Legislative Services remains pessimistic, but acknowledges that the storm's impact on the state's economy and fiscal condition is unclear at this time.

New Jersey

New Mexico New York North Carolina The only pending concern is the federal fiscal cliff and the potential drag it may have on the U.S. economy in the first quarter and possibly the second quarter of 2013.

North Dakota Ohio Through October, general fund tax revenues were about 1.2 percent above estimate.

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 33 TABLE 7. REVENUE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF FY 2012
State/Jurisdiction Oklahoma Pessimistic Concerned Stable Optimistic Comments Energy prices and the direction of the national economy will continue to dictate the outlook for the balance of the fiscal year. The state economy is performing reasonably well and barring a measurable change, expectations are for continued health in state revenue collections.

Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas FY 2013 revenue estimates will be revised in January 2013. The overall general revenue estimate likely will be revised upward based on the higher than expected FY 2012 baseline.

Utah Vermont Virginia Washington Officials will likely make a slight upward adjustment to the FY 2013 forecast. FY 2013 revenue collections are meeting forecast expectations. Like many states, officials are projecting a slow or sluggish economic recovery and concerns continue over the impact of outside pressures (e.g. the federal fiscal cliff, European debt crisis, etc.)

West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Total 4 7 34 6 Severance tax collections remain a point of caution, but other revenue categories are showing stability.

Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2012.

34 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 8. AREAS OF SPENDING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER BUDGET IN FY 2013

State/Jurisdiction Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California

No

Yes

Unknown

Comments

Education, (there were lower than expected savings from dissolution of redevelopment agencies), Medicaid (Healthy Families Program, the state’s Children’s Health Insurance Program), and wildfire-related costs are all over budget. Refer to page 4 of California’s November 2012 Fiscal Outlook for more information. As of October 23, 2012, the Legislative Council is not aware of any items significantly over budget. Medicaid.

Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine

A deficit in Medicaid is forecast and will need to be addressed in the actual FY 2013 budget. Unknown at this time. Corrections.

The legislature underfunded Medicaid for FY 2013 by an estimated $61.0 million, and agreed to address the issue during the 2013 session. K-12 education is projected to require additional funding to maintain current levels of base state aid per pupil expenditures.

Medicaid spending has increased despite a declining caseload. Medicaid spending was projected to decline in FY 2013. The extent of any shortfall will depend on the timing and the successful implementation of many savings initiatives enacted in the 2012 session.

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 35 TABLE 8. AREAS OF SPENDING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER BUDGET IN FY 2013
State/Jurisdiction Maryland No Yes Unknown Comments As part of the Department of Legislative Services current services budget estimate, $123 million in potential current year deficiencies have been identified. This includes $54 million in human resources (including $36 million in the deferred payment of prior year spending and $12 million due to special and federal fund underattainment); $18 million in Education (student test costs); $16 million for public safety ($9 million for overtime and $4 million for inmate food and supplies); $12 million in juvenile services (per diem payments of $9 million and staffing shortages totaling $3 million); $10 million in Health and Mental Hygiene ($9 million for community provider payments); $10 million for higher education ($6 million for manpower and statewide program grants and $3 million for the community college optional retirement program); and $3 million in other agencies. As a result of a recent state drug lab scandal, officials anticipate exposure across a number of public safety and trial court accounts. Officials are still working to understand the scope of this potential exposure and its impact to budgeted funds for the remainder of the fiscal year. In addition, officials are aware of structural deficiencies in family homelessness services and indigent defense.

Massachusetts

Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire The Dept. of Corrections will require additional funds in FY 2013. Unknown at this time. However, tornado damage funding in Joplin is possibly over budget. Fire suppression costs ($47.5M) and K-12 inflationary ruling ($33.0M) are over budget. Unknown at this time as deficit requests were just recently received. Medicaid expenditures are over budget, driven by higher than budgeted caseloads and higher costs per eligible recipient. Charter school appropriations are estimated to exceed budgeted appropriations of $9.3 million by almost 58 percent ($5.4 million) in FY 2013. Also, due to a delay in the implementation of the Managed Care Program, expected savings to date of $9 million are not yet recognized.

New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island

36 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 8. AREAS OF SPENDING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER BUDGET IN FY 2013

State/Jurisdiction South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas

No

Yes

Unknown

Comments

In balancing the 2012-13 biennial budget, the Medicaid program was underfunded by an estimated $4.3 billion. This will be an immediate issue when the legislature convenes in January of 2013.

Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Total 22 18 11 Fire suppression costs due to wildland fires this summer. Medicaid is predicted to be $180 million over budget for FY 2013. Corrections and Judiciary. Medicaid and employee health insurance will need additional appropriations.

Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, fall 2012.

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 37 TABLE 9. SUMMARY OF STATE FISCAL SITUATIONS
State/ Jurisdiction Alabama Statement Collections from growth taxes (income, sales and use, etc.) are improving; however, most other revenue sources are relatively flat. Most of the growth taxes are earmarked for the Education Trust Fund, while general fund revenue sources, which provides funding for Medicaid, corrections and other general functions of state government, generally do not grow much. For the first time since FY 2005, Alaska may have a deficit in FY 2013. Deficits beyond FY 2014 are projected, and officials expect to begin using some of the reserves set aside in anticipation of future deficits. Currently stable; however, shortfalls in FY 2015 and FY 2016 are possible, depending on the rate of recovery and Medicaid expansion decisions. Based on general revenue collections, the current forecast is to fully fund general revenue allocations provided for in the Arkansas Revenue Stabilization Act for FY 2013. The allocation of general revenue in the Act is the amount forecasted to be available for distribution to state agencies and the institutions of higher education receiving general revenue. Stable, with projected operating surpluses in the out-years, assuming there is steady economic growth and restraint in augmenting current program funding levels. Year-to-date, personal income and sales taxes have been strong. However, the impact of the fiscal cliff on the economy is unknown. In addition to the tax increases and discretionary spending cuts, Colorado has a number of aerospace jobs and is home to six military bases. It is still early in the year and officials have not yet produced thorough expenditure estimates, but right now the budget appears to be out of balance in the range of $300 million. The performance of the economy is the main worry—growth is slow and revenues are a concern. Revenues have stabilized somewhat, yet the outlook is still cautiously optimistic. In addition, four tax sunsets are set to occur in FY 2014 and FY 2015 with an impact of $34.5 million and $178.5 million, respectively. The District continues to experience revenue stability and expenditure discipline. The District is planning for the impact of federal government sequestration. The District's Council, Mayor and Chief Financial Officer continue to monitor happenings on Capitol Hill and are prepared to respond without disruption to any possible shifts in federal spending. Legislative actions during the 2011 and 2012 sessions to close the projected budget gaps through recurring means positively impacted the state's bottom line in subsequent years. In this regard, total estimated expenditures for future years were constrained by the amount of recurring expenditure reductions taken in FY 2012 and FY 2013. This has greatly improved the Long-Range Financial Outlook's bottom line. Currently, no budget gap is projected for future fiscal years. Stable growth, but slightly lower than originally expected; however, the state is already adjusting for these less aggressive collections. Population growth and unforeseen shortages that arose since the passage of the budget are the primary reasons for agency reductions. "Razor's edge.” Projected general fund balances and reserves are barely adequate and are likely to be very sensitive to any unanticipated economic or fiscal shocks. Post-employment benefit liabilities and their impact to the Comprehensive Annual Financial Report continue to be a major concern. Continued slow growth. Agriculture is doing very well and keeping afloat the nonfarm economy. While revenues have performed at, or even ahead of budgeted levels, the continued backlog of owed bills has not allowed the fiscal pressure to ease. No Response

Alaska Arizona Arkansas

California Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware District of Columbia

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho Illinois Indiana

38 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 9. SUMMARY OF STATE FISCAL SITUATIONS

State/ Jurisdiction Iowa

Statement Revenues have increased significantly during the first four months of FY 2013 compared to the first four months last year and are exceeding revenue predictions. The state has experienced growth in jobs, but not robust growth. There is still a high level of uncertainty in economic growth. The expiration of the federal tax cuts could have a significant impact on state revenue—more federal taxes paid means reduced state revenues as federal taxes are deductible in Iowa. Growth rates, while currently very strong, could stabilize at a modest growth level. The state economy is showing consistent, but slow growth. The new tax reforms are expected to create a temporary (three year) reduction in revenue, followed by an expected increase in long-term growth. General fund revenues have grown the past two years, but growth is anticipated to be 3 percent or lower over the next two fiscal years. No Response The state’s fiscal condition is precarious with little on the horizon that would result in an improvement over recent forecasts and numerous potential downside risks. Revenue attainment at the close of FY 2012 was better than expected, as economic activity has improved (employment, home sales, vehicle sales and personal income). Nominal revenue growth is forecast for FY 2014, while spending pressures are starting to ease with the decline of Medicaid and temporary cash assistance caseloads. However, risks to the state's budget situation continue to exist. In the short term, how the federal government addresses the upcoming "fiscal cliff" could impact Maryland disproportionately greater than other states, as well as the overall economy. The state also continues to have a structural general fund deficit in excess of $400 million that must be addressed. FY 2013 has thus far not met expectations for revenue collections—making midyear budget cuts a distinct possibility at this point. Obviously, this also has a negative effect on the outlook for FY 2014. Slow but stable economic growth will yield slow but consistent growth in baseline revenue. However, tax changes enacted in 2011 will reduce net revenue growth in FY 2013 to levels below baseline rates. As a result, general fund revenue is expected to decline in FY 2013. The tax changes have also added a substantial degree of estimation uncertainty, on top of the uncertainty associated with underlying economic fundamentals, regarding revenue in FY 2013. Revenues have exceeded forecasted amounts since the last state budget forecast was issued in February 2012. Officials have concerns because current projections of economic growth (as measured by GDP) are lower than the projections used in the February forecast. Spending appears to be consistent with forecasted amounts. A general fund deficit of $1.1 billion is projected for the next biennium (FY 2014-FY 2015). FY 2013 general funds are growing over the previous fiscal year at a very slow rate. Revenues are starting to bounce back but sales and income tax revenues are slightly below historic norms. Through October, the state has a general fund cash balance of $486 million. Revenues are projected to continue to hover around 3.8 percent higher than the forecasted amounts. Budgetary pressures facing the 2013 Legislature include wildfire suppression, supplementals for K-12 education, personnel costs, pension liabilities, and infrastructure needs related to the development of natural resources in eastern Montana. Unknown are the budget priorities of the newly elected governor. Officials are projecting a shortfall in meeting minimum reserve requirements by the end of the next biennium (ending June 30, 2015). Revised forecasts have narrowed the projected gap, however, an imbalance of sufficiently substantial magnitude remains to cause concern on how best to achieve balance. The current fiscal situation is stable to positive due to the greater than forecast beginning general fund balance, and actual year-to-date revenue coming in above forecast. Officials continue to remain cautiously optimistic.

Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland

Massachusetts Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi Missouri Montana

Nebraska

Nevada New Hampshire

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 39 TABLE 9. SUMMARY OF STATE FISCAL SITUATIONS
State/ Jurisdiction New Jersey Statement Prior to the occurrence of Hurricane Sandy, the state faced a reduced opening balance, revenue shortfalls and potential cost overruns in FY 2013, but budgeted a surplus of only $648 million (about 2 percent of appropriations). Robust revenue targets assume 8.4 percent aggregate growth over FY 2012 levels (as recalculated by Office of Legislative Services based on its understanding of FY 2012 final collections), but revenue growth is underperforming at only 1.9 percent through September. If first quarter revenue results are repeated across the remainder of the fiscal year, revenues will be at least $1 billion below the levels assumed in the budget. It is unclear how the impact of Hurricane Sandy alters this situation. In FY 2013, the state has "new money" to spend with revenues in FY 2013 exceeding FY 2012 spending. After several years of difficult budget challenges, state revenue is rebounding. Stable but guarded, with a potential shock from the effects of the storm that hit New York City and Long Island, which is not reflected in current revenue estimates. Revenues have stabilized and are returning to long-term growth trends. The state’s economy is expanding rapidly due to oil and gas activity which has resulted in a growing workforce, increasing population, and expanding housing and business developments. Expenditures are well below estimate so far this year, so with tax revenues slightly above estimate, the current fiscal situation gives reason for cautious optimism. Stable with a rational sense of optimism for continued improvement and stability. At the same time, cautious monitoring of economic conditions are a must since, while the state’s economy appears structurally sound, a reliance on the health of the commodities sector (energy, agriculture, etc.) could shift conditions rapidly. Due to declining projected revenues early in the 2011-13 biennium (which runs from July 2011 through June 2013), the state's budget was rebalanced during the February 2012 session to accommodate the lower revenue situation. Since then, revenue forecasts have stabilized, resulting in a cautiously optimistic budget environment. Through September 2012, the state has a projected $193 million general fund ending balance, or about 1.4 percent of budgeted expenditures. Revenues are stable and are gradually improving. The state's position is stabilizing. Human services caseloads are growing slower than previously anticipated and projected revenues increased slightly in November. Stable, but cautious pending outcome of possible sequestration and potential economic slowdowns (i.e. European financial health). Through the first quarter of FY 2013, general fund revenues are tracking slightly higher than the budget adopted by the legislature. Conservative, anticipated collections in FY 2012 were not recognized in order to save funds to address potential federal revenue losses. FY 2012 revenues exceeded FY 2008 pre-recession levels but by less than 2 percent (not adjusted). Improving. Moderate growth with downside risk from the “fiscal cliff.” Income tax revenues have fallen below projections. Officials do not know if this is an issue of timing or a larger issue. Overall the state is in recovery. The state is benefitting from slower health care cost growth than anticipated but is still facing retiree costs and retiree health care pressures, and substantial cost pressures from the rebuilding from Tropical Storm Irene. Stable, but concern about cuts at the federal level with the impact on defense and federal contracting is having a chilling effect on the outlook.

New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee

Texas Utah Vermont

Virginia

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STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 9. SUMMARY OF STATE FISCAL SITUATIONS

State/ Jurisdiction Washington

Statement While the state continues its sluggish economic recovery, the state is currently facing a projected $900 million baseline budget problem in the upcoming biennium. This baseline budget problem does not include dealing with the requirement to significantly enhance K-12 funding over the coming six years, which is partially required by a recent court decision. This means that the projected shortfall could exceed $2 billion for the next biennium. This is still far below the magnitude of budget challenges in recent biennia, but it still should be viewed as significant, particularly given the reductions made in recent years. Stable, but cautious with regard to Medicaid spending and a decline in severance and lottery revenues. No Response The state's general fund revenues grew by 2.5 percent, year-over-year, for FY 2012. This modest growth exceeded revenue forecasts but was below the more robust growth experienced throughout much of the past decade. Some caution continues regarding the national economic rebound and the early stages of a rebound in natural gas markets.

West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2012.

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 41 TABLE 10. RETURN OR PROJECTED RETURN TO PEAK REVENUE COLLECTIONS
State/Jurisdiction Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Fiscal Year Unknown N/A FY 2018 FY 2011 FY 2015 FY 2011 gross general revenue collections totaled $5.673 million. The previous peak was in FY 2008 at $5.575 million. Officials project that nominal revenues will exceed their FY 2008 peak in FY 2015. Note that this estimate does not account for about $6 billion in general fund revenues that were shifted to a special fund in 2011 to "realign" certain state responsibilities to local governments. The 2012-2013 Biennial Budget contained revenue policy changes estimated to be $1.995 billion in FY 2012 and $1.786 billion in FY 2013. Net tax changes contained in these increases were $1.370 billion in FY 2012 and $1.227 billion in FY 2013. FY 2012 revenues were 18.9 percent, or $2.962 billion, greater than FY 2009. FY 2011 general fund revenues totaled $3,531.4 million. The previous peak was in FY 2008 at $3,356.7 million. FY 2012 general fund collections were $3,359.3 million. It should be noted that many taxes were raised in FY 2009 and FY 2010. District of Columbia revenues did not face a precipitous drop in revenues as other states experienced. Revenue collection was steady and in some cases grew (i.e. real estate transfer and estate taxes). Florida's peak level was $27.1 billion in FY 2006. Current projections reflect returning to this level in FY 2015. Comments Officials have not yet made estimates beyond FY 2013. Alaska is unlikely to again see revenue levels experienced in FY 2008 when oil prices were very high and production was higher on the downward trend line.

Colorado Connecticut

FY 2013 FY 2012

Delaware

FY 2011

District of Columbia

N/A

Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas

FY 2015 Unknown FY 2012 FY 2015 FY 2013 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2011

Tax relief in FY 2013 reduced revenue growth by $35 million. Return to peak is hard to accurately evaluate due to significant income tax changes; however, the sales tax has returned to peak levels.

Kansas returned to peak levels in FY 2011 (Kansas implemented a temporary three year sales tax increase of 1 percent that began in FY 2011). However, recent tax reforms have lowered the FY 2013 estimate below the new high in FY 2012. A return to peak is not in the current forecast horizon (through FY 2016). The state permanently reduced its sales and income tax base from FY 2010. Prior to the Dec. 1, 2012, revenue forecast, FY 2015 projections are $11.3 million short, or at 99.7 percent of FY 2008 (previous peak) general fund revenue collections. Return to peak revenue levels was delayed by the implementation of significant income and estate tax reductions. The FY 2013 budget assumes the highest general fund revenues since the beginning of the recession in FY 2009. Officials expect that our general fund revenues will remain relatively stable for the remainder of the fiscal year. FY 2014 revenue is currently forecasted to be 13.3 percent below the previous peak of FY 2000. If general fund revenues grew 4 percent per year they would return to peak in FY 2017.

Kentucky Louisiana Maine

FY 2011 Unknown FY 2016

Maryland Massachusetts

FY 2012 FY 2013

Michigan

Unknown

42 |

STATE BUDGET UPDATE: FALL 2012 TABLE 10. RETURN OR PROJECTED RETURN TO PEAK REVENUE COLLECTIONS

State/Jurisdiction Minnesota Mississippi Missouri

Fiscal Year FY 2012 FY 2014 FY 2014 or FY 2015 FY 2014 FY 2012 Unknown Unknown Unknown FY 2015 FY 2012 FY 2013 N/A FY 2013 FY 2014

Comments The previous peak level was in FY 2008 ($16.7 billion). Revenue for FY 2012 will exceed the previous peak when the next forecast is released. If current estimates are realized, general fund collections will be near the peak levels of FY 2008 in FY 2014.

Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma

FY 2011 was a near miss at $6.4 million below the prior peak. It is uncertain as to when the state will return to its peak level for the sales tax and gaming tax, which was in FY 2007. Revenue projections have not been made beyond FY 2013 ($2.2 billion), and it is unknown when state general fund revenues will return to the peak of $2.4 billion in FY 2008. The certified target of $31.7 billion for FY 2013 remains below the FY 2008 peak of $33.2 billion. Return to peak is in part due to a income tax surcharge on upper brackets enacted in 2009 and having an effect on tax years 2009, 2010 and 2011. If the revenue forecast for FY 2013 is met, then revenues will surpass FY 2008 collections by 0.37 percent ($70 million). North Dakota's general fund revenues did not decline in previous years. The state's revenues are currently at peak levels. The return to peak levels is due in part to reductions in revenue sharing with local governments. The first quarter of FY 2009 realized over $250 million more than the same quarter in FY 2013. However, more than one-half of the difference results from a transportation funding plan that sends an increasing amount of general fund revenues “off the top” each year to the Department of Transportation. An FY 2014 return to peak is only speculative at present, but plotting the trends would indicate a return, providing circumstances do not materially change. FY 2011 exceeded the previous peak in FY 2007. Revenues have not yet returned to the peak levels experienced in FY 2008. However, revenues are expected to reach that peak before this current fiscal year ends in June 2013.

Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin

FY 2011 FY 2013 Unknown Unknown FY 2012 FY 2012 FY 2012 Unknown FY 2012 FY 2012 FY 2014 FY 2014 FY 2012

FY 2012 collections were above the FY 2008 peak and September 2012 collections were above prerecession levels. General fund revenue collections previously peaked in FY 2008 at $41.7 billion. FY 2012 general revenue collections totaled $44.9 billion. Not in the current forecast period. FY 2012 revenues were $2.7 million (0.25 percent) below the previous peak in FY 2008. Officials expect to exceed FY 2008 levels by 5 percent in FY 2013. FY 2012 revenues slightly exceeded the previous peak collection year of FY 2008. The current forecast calls for state revenues to exceed FY 2008 (peak) levels in FY 2014.

S T A T E B U D G E T U P D A T E : F A L L 2 0 1 2 | 43 TABLE 10. RETURN OR PROJECTED RETURN TO PEAK REVENUE COLLECTIONS
State/Jurisdiction Wyoming Fiscal Year Unknown Comments General fund revenues are not estimated to return to the peak levels experienced in FY 2008 throughout the duration of the period currently forecasted (through FY 2018). Wyoming's revenue routinely has peaks, or spikes, resulting from strong revenues generated from coal, natural gas and oil.

Key: (N/A) = Not applicable. Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2012.

NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES William T. Pound, Executive Director Denver Office 7700 East First Place Denver, CO 80230 (303) 364-7700 (303) 364-7800 Washington Office 444 North Capitol Street, N.W., Suite 515 Washington, DC 20001 (202) 624-5400 (202) 737-1069 www.ncsl.org

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