You are on page 1of 15

20 December 2012

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

20 December 2012

Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
How to use the report ....................................................................................................... 5
Over Valued ............................................................... 6
Aerospace & Defence
Automobiles & Parts
Banks

Under Valued ................................................................. 6
Over Valued ................................................................................ 6
Under Valued .......................................................................... 6
Under Valued .......................................................................... 6

Beverages
Chemicals

Construction & Building Materials
Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Over Valued ................................................ 7
Over Valued ............................................... 7

Over Valued .......................................................... 7
Over Valued .................................................................. 8

Engineering & Machinery
Food & Drug Stores

Under Valued ..................................................... 8
Food Producers & Processors
Under Valued ....................................................................... 8
General Retail
Over Valued ................................................................................. 8
Health

Household Goods & Textiles

Over Valued ...................................................... 9

Over Valued ........................................... 9
Information Technology & Hardware
Under Valued .............................................................................. 9
Insurance
Over Valued ................................................................. 9
Leisure & Hotels
Over Valued ..................................................................... 10
Over Valued ........................................................... 10

Life Assurance
Media & Entertainment
Mining

Under Valued ................................................................................ 10

Under Valued ............................................................................ 10
Over Valued ......................................... 11
Personal Care & Household Products
Over Valued .............................................. 11
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Oil & Gas

Real Estate

Under Valued ........................................................................ 11

Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance
Support Services

Under Valued ................................................. 11
Over Valued ....................................................... 12
Over Valued ............................................................... 12

Over Valued .................................................... 13
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ............................................................................ 13
Transport
Under Valued ............................................................................... 13
Utilities

DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING – Ratings and Targets ............................................................................. 15

©

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 2 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

20 December 2012

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscriber’s personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a year’s data for 40 stocks within Intellisys’ stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

©

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 3 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

20 December 2012

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing ‘Target Indications’. On a
daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the
Consolidated Income Statement but also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and
then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys’ architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant ‘Target’ is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the ‘Target’ as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that ‘Target Indication’ delivery is not only a function of
market levels but a management team’s ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analyst’s approach to determining ‘target prices’ is to start with a
modest range of some 6 – 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the
‘intuitive’ result. Intellysis’ approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies
as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from ‘falling in love’ with a stock or becoming mesmerised by ‘management cults’.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscriber’s existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
RISK WARNING – Ratings and Targets
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is
provided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact
your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you
may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign
currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and
the income from them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

©

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 4 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

20 December 2012

How to use the report
This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the market’s
open - and is based upon previous day’s closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based
upon implied target price
Today’s action
Sector

Implied target price
based upon 49
valuation metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

21.16
6.36

9.36
2.20

21.69
6.55

Neutral
Neutral

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12

23.50
324.70
0.40

19.50
189.00
0.24

82.00
342.30
17.00

Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

JD SPORTS FASHION

731.00

570.00

863.00

Neutral

57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL

DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Latest 12 month
Hi/Lo for the
share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Strong
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97

38
4

1.56
0.94

112
415
-62

1.05
0.67
0.88

1341

0.47

321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

ßeta measures a
share’s
volatility/risk
relative to market

(see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta of
1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from the
market. This can be summarised as:

©

ßeta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

ßeta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market

ßeta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 5 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence
Stock
BAE SYSTEMS
C HEMRING GROUP
C OBHAM
MEGGITT
ROLLS-ROYC E HOLDINGS
SMITHS GROUP
ULTRA ELEC TRONIC S HDG.

Price 12M Lo
341.90 270.90
242.00 217.00
221.50 169.10
394.90 345.50
883.50 692.14
1184.00 890.50
1654.00 1408.00

12M Hi
363.60
460.00
239.50
414.90
913.50
1184.00
1780.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
227.10 173.60
439.70 284.10
75.25
48.75
18.25
6.80

12M Hi
237.20
446.40
79.00
18.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
266.55 150.55
653.00 480.10
49.20
23.62
315.40 196.60
1568.00 1228.50

12M Hi
266.55
653.00
49.20
315.40
1662.50

©

Target
216
421
87
27

Beta
1.95
1.43
1.28
1.09

Target
173
1030
59
-130
1306

Beta
1.89
1.16
1.85
1.36
1.70

Under Valued
Price 12M Lo
491.20 348.00
1838.50 1346.00
2833.00 2156.00

12M Hi
496.60
1886.50
2868.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy

Target
530
1584
3378

Beta
0.49
0.54
1.00

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
SYNTHOMER
ZOTEFOAMS

LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER

Beta
0.67
0.55
0.87
1.32
1.09
0.69
0.58

Over Valued

Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED

Target
522
527
250
332
598
915
1383

Under Valued

Automobiles & Parts
Stock
GKN
INC HC APE
LOOKERS
PENDRAGON

20 December 2012

Price
2382.00
234.40
2409.00
1649.00
192.30
200.50

12M Lo
1753.00
134.40
1778.38
1070.00
127.40
109.00

12M Hi
2501.00
240.30
2573.00
1649.00
251.00
225.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Target
3925
311
6262
1744
324
191

Page 6 of 15

Beta
1.05
1.02
1.44
1.14
1.19
0.98

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

Over Valued

Construction & Building Materials
Stock
BALFOUR BEATTY
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
BELLWAY
BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)
BOVIS HOMES GROUP
C ARILLION
C LARKE (T)
C OSTAIN GROUP
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
MORGAN SINDALL GROUP
PERSIMMON
REDROW
SIG
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
WOLSELEY

Price
268.40
206.10
1037.00
1765.00
562.50
314.00
52.50
250.00
746.00
638.00
1302.00
53.00
100.50
524.50
812.00
161.50
123.50
65.95
1082.00
2880.00

12M Lo
237.90
87.30
660.00
1177.00
399.30
235.50
36.50
180.50
450.00
243.00
1095.00
38.00
76.00
508.00
457.40
107.30
79.50
36.25
780.00
2010.25

12M Hi
320.80
206.10
1037.00
1765.00
562.50
344.00
54.50
253.75
753.00
657.00
1489.00
66.50
103.62
725.00
815.50
163.00
123.50
65.95
1149.00
2898.80

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1017.00 685.00
578.50 503.00
123.00 103.75
325.90 181.60
213.20 144.90
1408.00 905.50
1860.00 917.00
2037.00 1221.00
0.08
0.08
145.25 114.00
292.00 185.00

12M Hi
1244.00
670.00
149.50
328.00
243.90
1408.00
1963.00
2037.00
0.22
203.50
292.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

©

Beta
0.83
1.48
1.08
0.65
1.13
1.11
0.78
0.61
1.01
1.24
0.95
1.07
1.30
0.83
1.14
1.03
1.65
1.56
1.93
1.44

Target
663
806
211
295
77
1018
2095
1881
0
337
197

Beta
0.76
1.14
1.33
1.36
2.12
0.98
1.25
1.44
0.82
1.58
1.12

Over Valued

Engineering & Machinery
Stock
AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP
BODYC OTE
C ASTINGS
VESUVIUS
FENNER
HALMA
HILL & SMITH
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN C RUC IBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARC O
VITEC GROUP
WEIR GROUP

Target
-82
23
74
3384
54
-273
12
489
-163
254
843
83
36
-28
224
26
142
-11
457
449

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment
Stock
DIALIGHT
DOMINO PRINTING SC IENC ES
E2V TEC HNOLOGIES
INVENSYS
LAIRD
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
RENISHAW
SPEC TRIS
BIOME TEC HNOLOGIES
TT ELEC TRONIC S
XAAR

20 December 2012

Price
71.75
443.00
321.50
324.00
388.30
454.80
410.75
1107.00
4.63
269.60
2566.00
202.70
83.00
2266.00
630.00
1812.00

12M Lo
54.25
258.40
253.00
242.85
329.30
330.40
250.00
734.00
3.88
220.30
1810.00
164.30
81.50
1800.00
547.00
1397.00

12M Hi
92.00
443.00
358.50
370.85
483.70
454.80
410.75
1107.00
9.00
360.00
2566.00
213.00
219.50
2334.00
740.00
2236.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Target
117
472
634
709
378
354
316
1218
3
490
1846
205
74
2038
567
1832

Page 7 of 15

Beta
1.23
1.56
0.98
2.21
1.43
0.76
1.34
1.37
0.79
1.77
1.00
1.68
0.96
0.81
1.44
1.37

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores
Stock
GREGGS
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
SAINSBURY (J)
TESC O
THORNTONS

Price 12M Lo
466.00 457.00
265.30 256.20
353.20 283.20
340.25 297.05
41.00
9.50

12M Hi
558.00
328.00
361.10
411.25
42.25

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1567.00 1083.00
833.50 723.00
400.00 290.40
315.50 250.30
113.75
52.50
773.50 633.50
2425.00 1994.00

12M Hi
1567.00
858.00
400.00
341.20
180.00
779.00
2429.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy

Price 12M Lo
28.50
19.38
379.00 222.40
1249.00 1000.00
689.00 459.10
29.80
9.55
7.92
2.76
28.63
19.50
339.20 189.00
710.00 592.50
58.50
38.00
278.50 240.30
398.80 302.70
63.75
33.00
356.00 152.00
3770.00 2573.00
1141.00 633.00
50.00
25.25

12M Hi
29.50
380.00
1586.00
728.50
29.80
9.03
58.75
356.80
863.00
85.70
313.80
398.80
63.75
362.00
3770.00
1141.00
51.75

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

©

Beta
0.47
0.43
0.63
0.71
0.83

Target
1196
1300
367
301
-134
932
3166

Beta
0.59
0.58
0.91
0.31
1.39
0.65
0.59

Target
32
341
920
265
38
3
107
473
1440
82
374
489
59
397
3445
620
34

Beta
0.72
0.51
1.31
0.95
1.56
1.11
1.01
0.68
0.47
1.24
0.94
0.73
1.02
0.44
0.68
0.57
1.29

Over Valued

Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW

Target
633
204
229
281
30

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors
Stock
ASSOC IATED BRIT.FOODS
C RANSWIC K
DAIRY C REST
DEVRO
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

20 December 2012

Price 12M Lo
791.00 523.00
69.75
35.25
685.50 580.00

12M Hi
831.50
69.75
693.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
660
68
735

Page 8 of 15

Beta
0.46
0.67
0.36

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles
Stock
GAMES WORKSHOP
HEADLAM GROUP
HORNBY

Price 12M Lo
665.00 445.00
324.00 253.75
68.38
55.25

12M Hi
720.50
325.00
136.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
775.00 469.00
342.00 180.30
36.25
16.38
415.00 383.50
147.80 105.80
196.00 125.25

12M Hi
775.00
365.60
47.25
717.00
174.00
230.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1199.00 819.00
388.70 311.30
176.80 131.00
500.00 387.20
468.00 366.70
770.00 659.00
126.80
97.65
386.00 316.00

12M Hi
1231.00
405.00
180.40
500.00
489.40
790.00
126.80
388.50

©

Beta
0.37
0.91
0.74

Target
444
774
36
393
541
-262

Beta
0.75
1.21
0.80
1.06
0.94
0.98

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
442
-2606
1374
660
1873
2862
1523
1745

Beta
0.56
0.47
0.56
0.29
0.48
0.29
0.42
0.46

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels
Stock
C ARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
TUI TRAVEL
FULLER SMITH 'A'
GREENE KING
LADBROKES
IC TL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & C PTH.HTLS.
MITC HELLS & BUTLERS
BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.
PUNC H TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
WETHERSPOON (JD)
WHITBREAD
WILLIAM HILL
MARSTON'S

Target
648
274
97

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP

LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware
Stock
ARM HOLDINGS
C SR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES
SPIRENT C OMMUNIC ATIONS
WOLFSON MIC ROELEC TRONIC S

20 December 2012

Price
2545.00
97.50
286.50
769.00
629.50
199.90
1659.00
510.50
322.70
113.70
7.36
148.00
380.00
532.00
2482.00
350.50
122.20

12M Lo
1841.00
26.50
156.30
657.25
464.10
122.80
1091.27
389.60
217.40
91.90
5.61
111.00
269.20
371.30
1524.00
188.60
89.30

12M Hi
2545.00
98.25
286.90
798.00
646.00
199.90
1727.01
518.00
337.00
174.00
12.25
154.30
391.70
548.50
2488.00
357.50
127.70

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy

Target
5015
50
766
751
641
174
1460
623
383
27
-208
463
314
683
1929
278
165

Page 9 of 15

Beta
0.99
1.63
1.01
0.40
0.90
0.92
1.18
1.35
1.04
1.25
1.20
0.97
0.81
0.73
0.98
0.91
1.23

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

20 December 2012
Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E

Price 12M Lo
380.80 255.30
195.00 155.25
146.10
99.35
179.50 129.96
890.00 613.00
422.60 303.40

12M Hi
382.60
207.50
147.40
179.50
911.50
422.60

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell

Over Valued

Media & Entertainment
Stock
AEGIS GROUP
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
BRITISH SKY BC AST.GROUP
C ENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
INFORMA
ITE GROUP
ITV
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
STV GROUP
ST.IVES
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
HIBU

Price 12M Lo
234.90 138.90
118.00
92.00
772.00 635.50
47.50
28.50
547.50 363.50
839.00 625.00
455.20 340.00
236.40 180.00
103.80
62.30
15.00
4.88
1199.00 1111.00
60.50
36.25
287.00 237.62
28.80
26.21
101.00
76.25
103.00
67.50
95.75
25.50
735.00 467.50
149.75
78.50
883.00 650.00
0.38
0.26

12M Hi
237.80
146.50
779.00
51.75
547.50
839.00
455.20
240.60
103.80
15.00
1294.00
60.50
377.50
30.02
119.50
106.50
96.00
750.00
150.00
886.00
6.27

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price
1893.00
267.25
1366.00
2145.50
292.60
6105.00
3506.50
6.82

12M Lo
1664.00
221.25
991.00
1681.00
240.84
4596.00
2715.50
3.75
832.50
1050.00 785.80

12M Hi
2910.00
340.00
1399.00
2206.50
599.98
7775.00
3988.00
34.00
1502.00
1283.00

©

Target
-290
817
70
2009
1887
91
302
540
777
247
1389
472
371
529
-234
1906
581
271
516
556
31

Beta
1.29
0.38
0.55
0.99
1.06
0.96
1.56
1.42
1.54
1.27
0.65
0.79
0.19
0.52
0.76
1.43
1.57
1.33
0.87
1.31
1.10

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy

Target
3251
300
1021
3784
655
3200
3773
146
2535
1174

Beta
1.73
0.99
1.44
1.41
1.93
0.28
1.48
0.89
2.16
1.78

Under Valued

Oil & Gas
Stock
BG GROUP
BP
C AIRN ENERGY
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL B
SOC O INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell

Under Valued

Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
C OALFIELD RESOURC ES
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA

Target
1040
310
255
153
810
384

Price
1023.00
431.30
266.30
11.50
767.50
69.00
322.00
2200.00
352.80
1228.00
740.00

12M Lo
1000.50
391.95
248.20
7.86
688.00
68.00
321.30
2039.00
254.90
1150.00
627.50

12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
360.00
12.13
968.00
187.75
449.70
2489.00
373.40
1601.00
875.50

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
1171
1474
-15
14
495
282
276
10374
241
761
782

Page 10 of 15

Beta
0.79
1.06
1.35
0.88
1.28
1.45
1.39
0.90
0.53
1.10
1.35

Beta
1.28
0.67
1.69
1.63
1.71
0.83

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

20 December 2012
Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products
Stock
MC BRIDE
PZ C USSONS
REC KITT BENC KISER GROUP

Price 12M Lo
134.50 102.70
364.80 285.00
3965.00 3125.00

12M Hi
140.00
365.00
3987.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Price
3.31
2943.00
338.80
597.00
1354.50
2.32
11.13
1920.00
69.00
22.63

12M Lo
2.54
2591.00
300.00
418.33
1317.50
2.05
5.88
1727.00
31.00
18.87

12M Hi
3.98
3111.50
423.00
636.00
1507.50
5.80
12.75
2300.00
101.50
27.38

ST Rec
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
342.80 242.30
567.50 452.10
28.75
22.75
769.50 554.50
2121.00 1520.00
153.00 121.75
117.40
83.10
494.10 319.40
491.90 349.40
235.00 164.00
819.00 616.00
361.00 295.30
136.00 110.25
371.75 280.25
54.00
32.50
454.10 300.80
561.50 460.40
245.20 198.20
226.00 110.50
189.00 130.00
283.90 163.50
1.48
1.40
313.80 213.25

12M Hi
352.10
567.50
34.25
769.50
2124.00
176.00
119.70
494.10
491.90
235.00
821.00
361.00
144.00
390.00
56.75
480.00
561.50
259.20
234.80
189.50
287.40
4.13
313.80

©

Target
42
4304
466
3212
-497
16
4
1591
321
129

Beta
1.03
0.49
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.94
0.67
0.70
0.82

Price 12M Lo
143.00
89.50
2110.00 1430.00
422.40 292.40
295.00 235.00
23.50
18.25
572.00 378.21
182.00 135.00
76.00
58.00
1499.00 1275.00
294.50 247.70

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
-290
817
70
2009
1887
91
302
540
777
247
1389
472
371
529
-234
1906
581
271
516
556
31
112
597

Beta
1.13
1.03
0.67
0.66
1.19
0.94
1.46
1.04
1.14
0.69
1.14
1.09
0.71
0.44
1.15
0.66
1.00
1.66
1.45
1.06
1.73
1.00
0.99

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services
Stock
ANITE
AVEVA GROUP
C OMPUTAC ENTER
KOFAX
INNOVATION GROUP
MIC RO FOC US INTL.
PHOENIX IT GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock
BIG YELLOW GROUP
BRITISH LAND
C APITAL & REGIONAL
C LS HOLDINGS
DERWENT LONDON
DEVELOPMENT SEC S.
GRAINGER
GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES
HAMMERSON
HELIC AL BAR
LAND SEC URITIES GROUP
C APITAL SHOPC TS.GROUP
MC KAY SEC URITIES
MUC KLOW (A & J) GROUP
QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.
SAVILLS
SHAFTESBURY
SEGRO
ST MODWEN PROPS.
TOWN C ENTRE SEC URITIES
UNITE GROUP
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPAC E GROUP

Beta
0.84
0.72
0.36

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Stock
ARK THERAPEUTIC S GP.
ASTRAZENEC A
BTG
DEC HRA PHARMAC EUTIC ALS
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDIC A
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA
VERNALIS

Target
252
310
4001

12M Hi
149.90
2110.00
461.90
314.00
23.75
595.50
231.75
93.50
1766.00
324.80

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Target
100
1071
1213
266
19
717
271
-66
1707
318

Page 11 of 15

Beta
0.82
1.38
1.00
1.12
0.84
0.80
0.85
0.54
0.77
0.72

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

20 December 2012
Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance
Stock
ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.
BREWIN DOLPHIN
C AMELLIA
C HARLES STANLEY GROUP
C HARLES TAYLOR
C LOSE BROTHERS GROUP
F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
IC AP
INTERMEDIATE C APITAL GP.
INVESTEC
LONDON STOC K EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
RATHBONE BROTHERS
SC HRODERS
SC HRODERS NV

Price 12M Lo
358.40 201.60
200.40 135.40
9700.00 9175.00
300.00 247.50
162.00 115.63
863.50 598.50
101.50
59.50
2.39
0.77
132.70
90.55
312.00 281.40
323.90 226.20
415.10 310.40
1106.00 779.50
83.50
63.25
1235.00 989.00
1701.00 1166.00
1373.00 966.00

12M Hi
358.40
200.40
9973.00
302.50
189.75
877.50
102.80
3.61
132.70
431.50
323.90
415.10
1106.00
152.50
1373.00
1701.00
1373.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Sell Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy

©

Beta
1.09
0.72
0.81
0.93
0.70
0.90
0.89
0.65
1.43
1.07
1.64
1.54
1.15
1.29
0.73
1.32
1.27

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

Target
97
101
9947
197
123
297
100
113
58
227
135
56
1635
100
1023
1112
4327

Price 12M Lo
193.50 157.75
1700.00 1664.00
1023.00 871.00
436.60 212.20
987.50 697.50
391.00 317.00
1020.00 846.00
305.00 197.50
776.50 602.00
37.75
24.75
734.00 588.00
602.00 422.40
925.00 885.50
1074.00 755.50
527.00 336.00
236.10 187.50
563.00 370.30
260.80 240.00
84.00
61.55
233.10 137.50
387.60 270.10
3128.00 1924.00
34.50
25.25
22.00
21.25
620.00 518.00
398.10 333.50
269.20 239.70
125.50 118.50
838.00 530.00
192.70 153.20
104.90
80.00
96.15
60.00
445.00 341.70
375.00 304.50
196.00 159.25
397.50 344.30
211.00 173.20
544.00 462.30
83.30
75.80
38.25
19.00
100.00
43.00
48.25
36.63
342.75 212.00
72.00
42.00

12M Hi
219.50
2400.00
1172.00
436.60
1002.00
410.50
1167.00
305.00
781.50
41.00
745.00
602.00
1075.00
1074.00
527.00
263.00
586.50
292.10
92.50
310.00
392.80
3130.00
35.00
39.50
652.00
497.00
300.80
163.75
893.50
228.80
117.50
96.15
461.40
391.00
264.63
447.00
256.60
602.00
113.00
38.25
100.50
52.00
354.88
75.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
266
1110
921
262
557
676
694
385
431
61
540
823
525
657
351
271
300
241
102
420
594
1219
79
46
1120
273
290
202
599
233
92
46
513
402
266
450
208
484
140
44
42
51
524
155

Page 12 of 15

Beta
0.87
1.06
1.06
1.59
0.45
0.75
0.52
0.28
0.50
0.75
0.69
1.02
#NA
0.17
0.97
1.03
1.09
0.59
1.08
0.91
1.24
0.80
1.19
0.67
1.42
1.39
0.56
0.41
0.74
1.28
1.42
1.29
0.86
0.83
1.22
0.78
1.52
0.59
1.45
1.25
0.50
0.92
0.90
0.77

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

20 December 2012
Over Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

Price 12M Lo
241.10 188.00
36.34
27.28
596.00 390.80
72.00
65.75
891.50 612.00
156.65 156.25

12M Hi
241.10
45.16
605.50
85.20
899.50
191.25

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
224.00 175.60
360.00 288.00
1170.00 1080.00
772.50 382.04
204.70 175.70
794.50 468.00
1289.00 1086.00
203.50 164.50
296.50 159.60
314.30 230.40
70.00
31.00

12M Hi
224.00
425.00
1390.00
772.50
344.00
809.50
1412.00
252.00
297.00
314.30
91.75

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell

©

Target
159
379
1267
452
429
309
1463
194
488
316
-28

Beta
1.31
0.98
0.80
0.76
0.99
0.80
0.94
1.33
1.40
0.93
0.90

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SSE
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

Beta
0.89
0.67
0.53
1.26
0.05
0.53

Over Valued

Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON

Target
270
67
501
105
590
135

Price 12M Lo
340.40 278.80
711.00 597.50
635.00 598.00
1448.00 1209.00
1576.00 1454.00
688.00 589.00

12M Hi
341.30
717.50
796.00
1461.00
1796.00
736.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell

Target
467
798
746
1700
1435
637

Page 13 of 15

Beta
0.47
0.53
0.56
0.45
0.36
0.50

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

20 December 2012

DISCLAIMER
Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys (“Intellisys”) is the trading name of
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of
quoted company shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys’ reports are designed to
present an objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial
sector or stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and
proprietary systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to
be accurate but Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the
source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely upon the
Intellisys’ research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice specific to
their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial Services and
Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this report. No
representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness
or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or sufficiency of
any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In no event will
Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be liable to any other party
for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use of this report.
The Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports are not directed to any person in any jurisdiction
where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or availability of the
Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys information may be prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such
prohibitions apply must not access the Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports. Neither this
document, nor any copy in whatever form of media, may be taken or transmitted into the United States,
Canada, Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so.
Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of relevant local securities laws.
Recipients of Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports outside the UK are not covered by the
rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in the UK.
Any user distributing information taken from any Intelligent Analysis Limited or Intellisys report and/or the
Intellisys website, in whatever form, to any other person, agrees to attach a copy of this Disclaimer and the
Terms and Conditions of Use pages and obtain the agreement of such other person to comply with the
terms set forth.
Intellisys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available to market
counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intelligent Analysis Limited believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but
its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is
given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is
accepted for the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise.
Intelligent Analysis Limited (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person
may have positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a
report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions
imposed by internal rules.

©

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 14 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

20 December 2012

Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does
not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.

RISK WARNING – Ratings and Targets
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get back
the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange
rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance.

©

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 15 of 15