Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 6, No.

1, 2012

Application of Replacement Theory in Determination of Pavement Design Life
S. K. Bagui 1), A. K. Chakraborti 2) and S. M. Bhadra 2)
1)

Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Civil Eng., Bengal Eng. and Science University, Shibpur, India 2) Associates with Emergency Flood Protection and Reconstruction Project, Mukalla

ABSTRACT
This paper presents a methodology to determine the economic life of pavement based replacement theory/decision. The replacement theory is generally used for the determination of the replacement period of machines, bulbs, vehicles, equipment, buildings, T.V. parts… etc. This theory has been used to determine the economic life pavement for a road project and a bridge project with a real case study. The economic life has been found out. The economic life of flexible pavement has been found to be 15 years for national highways. This theory can be also applied to determine the economic life of new developed items/useful materials for highway projects. KEYWORDS: Replacement theory, Operation replacement, Discount rate. research, Bridge replacement, Pavement

INTRODUCTION Machine replacement problem has been studied by many researchers and is also an important topic in operation research and management science (Nahmias, 1997).Renewal theory is a useful tool in modeling many systems. The quantity-based replacement policy and time-based replacement policy for a single machine problem are reported. These two kinds of policies have been applied to inventory management problems. In a quantity-based replacement policy, a machine is replaced when an accumulated product of size q is produced. In this model, one has to determine the optimal production size q. While in a time-based replacement policy, a machine is replaced in every period of T. For this model, one has to determine the optimal replacement period T in each production cycle.
Accepted for Publication on 14/11/2011.

The time-based policy is more preferable than the quantity-based dispatch policy for satisfying timely customer service. Especially, time-based shipment consolidations have become apart of the transportation contract among the members of a supply chain. Two analytic models were compared according to their average long-run performance. Average long-run costs for both models have been developed by using renewal theory. The costs here include both the cost of a new machine and the machine maintenance cost. Replacement theory is generally concerned with the problem of replacement of machines, bulbs and men due to deteriorating efficiency, failure or break down. Replacement is usually carried out under the following situations: • When existing items have outlived their effective lives and it may not be economical to continue with them anymore. • When the items might have been destroyed either by accidents or otherwise.

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The criteria used for replacement in the approach are: 1) Equipment age. A. LITERATURE REVIEW The Texas Department of Transportation (DOT) owns and maintains an active fleet inventory of approximately 17000 units and replaces about 10% of them annually. A new economically sound methodology for assisting with equipment replacement at Texas DOT is presented. TERM uses threshold values for age. 2) A DP-based optimization engine that minimizes the total cost over a defined horizon. and 3) A Java based Graphical User Interface (GUI) that takes parameters selected by and inputs from users and coordinates the Optimization Engine and SAS Macro Data Cleaner and Analyzer. estimation and forecasting of several costs are also discussed. the SAS macrobased Data Cleaner and Analyzer) is presented in detail. Bagui. Units whose life-cycle costs have been increasing longer or at a faster rate should have higher replacement priority. . Private and public agencies do not routinely use life-cycle cost as a replacement criterion.K. This methodology was implemented through the Texas Equipment Replacement Model. . a dump truck with tandem rear . as well as cost estimation and forecasting.Gradual diminishing of the existing working staff in an organization due to retirement.Replacement of items that deteriorated with time. 2011). The trend score concept allows a computer to mimic replacement decisions made by a person visually inspecting a series of life-cycle cost histories. For example. This new method takes full advantage of Texas DOT’s comprehensive equipment operating system database. use of an equipment unit and repair cost as inputs for replacement..Replacement of items which did not deteriorate but failed completely after certain use. death… etc. The most relevant information provided by a lifecycle cost graph is its trend. TxDOT uses the Texas Equipment Replacement Model (TERM.Application of Replacement… S. The developed ERO software consists of three main components: 1) A SAS Macro-based Data Cleaner and Analyzer.148 - . This system is used to provide historical data in a computerized approach. can prioritize the units on the basis of comparisons among all units within any desired class of equipment and uses life-cycle cost trends as a replacement criterion. in a following paper. Then.. Any methodology that can improve Texas DOT’s replacement procedures could potentially save millions of dollars. a menu driven software that allows the fleet manager to efficiently apply the methodology (Weismann et al. Preliminary numerical results of the SAS data analysis. which undertakes the tasks of raw data reading. 2004) to identify equipment items as candidates for equipment replacement one year in advance of need (This one year allows sufficient time for the procurement and delivery of a new unit). EOS historical cost data is processed against three preset standards/benchmarks for each identified equipment class. (150000) miles and 100%. TxDOT's Equipment Operations System (EOS). in operation since 1984.K. because the only way to automate the inspection of thousands of life-cycle cost histories has been to define an acceptability threshold for annualized costs. In other words. the DP-based optimization engine and ERO software development (including the Java GUI) are presented in detail (Fan et al. respectively.e. 2006).M. use and repair cost are 12 years. and 3) Life repair costs (adjusted for inflation) relative to original purchase cost (including net adjustment to capital value). . Chakraborti and S. Most fleet managers consider this practice too inaccurate. The first component (i. A comprehensive dynamic programming (DP) based optimization solution methodology is then proposed and implemented to solve the ERO problem.Replacement of an equipment that became out of date due to new development. cleaning and analyzing.. 2) Life usage expressed in miles (or hours). Bhadra The above replacement situations may be categorized into the following four categories. As a result. . captures extensive information on all aspects of equipment operation. current threshold values for dump trucks with tandem rear axles (referred to as class code 540020 within TxDOT) for age.

Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering. Mercury also provides an outsourcing feasibility study to any agency considering contracting with the company to handle some or all of the fleet management services. (2003) summarized the computerized equipment replacement methodology in a paper as a condensed version of these three research reports. an improved vehicle cost data base has been developed and will now allow a more normative decision support tool for fleet replacement optimization. Mercury Associates in particular. the US federal government and a wide variety of state and local governmental agencies. mileage. The future TxDOT TERM developed as a result of our work will be an advanced and fully automated equipment replacement optimization system that incorporates robust mathematical optimization models and reliable statistical cost estimation and forecasting models. 2004). Virginia and Washington (http://www. New York. 43000+ lb. 2009). it looks at individual pieces of equipment and does not track unit costs for use and replacement. buses. the life-cycle costs and multi-attribute ranking methodologies for equipment replacement.C. Second. has accumulated 150000 miles of usage and whose life repair costs have exceeded one hundred percent of the original purchase cost. These types of firms also work with a variety of clients on fuel management. First. vehicle leasing. Their programs and services are offered to a number of state DOTs and other public organizations. Delaware. replaces equipment based on classes of equipment. Minnesota. consulting services are their primary operations. To accomplish this task. UTSA created a SAS decision analysis tool to be used by the TxDOT in its equipment replacement process. Mercury has worked with many . heavily depends on the fleet managers' experience and is not automated since it is based on units . Maine. Their clients include private companies such as Laidlaw and General Motors. can automate the process and optimize the equipment keep/replacement decision based on that class of equipment age. has experience with fleets of vastly different sizes.1 piece of equipment at a time. Java is carefully chosen as the programming language and DP as the designed optimization solution approach. meets all three criteria (TERM. including net adjustments to capital value. the “one-stop shopping” seamless software system can/will automatically recommend robust optimization solutions based on the built-in cost statistical analysis. that is 12 years old. from fire trucks. clients have also owned a diverse set of fleets. Mercury Associates. ranging from 25 to more than 650000 vehicles. Volume 6. No. For other firms.S. consulting on fleet management is merely a part of an overall fleet management business model.149 - . it is still very labor intensive. State Series 990d. driver management and other services. more robust fleet optimization system that must use these class codes rather than individual pieces of equipment. It allows the manager to select the attributes used to compare the challenged unit with all other active units within a desired class or group. With a click of the mouse button. It is known that there are several issues with the current UTSA-TERM model. bulldozers and many more. Michigan. a Washington D. Many firms provide consultant services to fleet managers. Georgia. 1.com/ page/ state-government. trucks. Nevada. fleet management firm. 2012 axles. For some firms. Mercury has worked with 28 of the 50 U.assetworks. TxDOT needs a new.One of the major fleet management software manufacturers is Asset Works. resale value and the cost of replacement equipment. GVWR. Weismann et al. DOT users of Asset Works' software include Arizona. New Jersey. The equipment replacement approach developed includes a multi-attribute priority ranking combined with a life-cycle cost trend analysis. While the UTSA-TERM analysis tool met project scope within the data limitations existing at the time of its delivery. New Hampshire. 33 of the 50 largest US cities and 30 colleges and universities. California (Caltrans). A significant number of software programs currently exist to assist in fleet management . states (more than any other fleet management consulting firm). Starting in 1997.

which manages about 6000 vehicles. cement. concrete beam or steel superstructures. emissions and impacts for all three options. HMA production tends to cause the HMAoption to have the highest energy use. 2010).M.htm. Bridge managers have a duty to monitor and update the costs of bridge preservation activities and to implement cost-effective actions that are in the best interest of taxpayers. PCC and HMA) dominates the energy use. Construction began in 1954 and was completed in 1959. pdf. This was done with recent bridge construction data on the Indiana state highway network. The Tancarville bridge across the Seine was the subject of numerous design efforts during the first part of the 20th century..New México’s DOT. maintaining traffic and calling for bids while developing a design to replace the entire suspension system at the earliest possible time (Virlogeux. In 1953. and crack and seat the existing pavement and then place an HMA overlay. We then compare two popular replacement policies: the quantity-based replacement policy and the time-based replacement policy for a single machine replacement problem. seat and overlay method of rehabilitation (Craig and Stephen. and by 1970 design work was under way for possible cable replacement. seat and overlay option was the lowest energy user. This may become a strong argument for expansion of the crack. has also contracted with Mercury for both consulting services and training in fleet management best practices.g. had the lowest GWP and produced the least emissions in morecategories measured than the other two options. We also prove an interesting result that the optimal costs of both policies are the same under certain assumptions (Allen and Ching. guaranteeing structural safety. 2003). The present study supports . Bhadra state departments of transportation. Each option investigated includes a detailed construction and rehabilitation schedule and is analyzed over 50 years. this paper explains why the cables of the Tancarville bridge had to suffer from corrosion under tension. Chakraborti and S. The crack. Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool that can be used to identify the environmental impact of a product or process. This marked the opening of the longest suspended span in Europe for that time. Bagui. This paper presents details of replacement cost modeling for each bridge component (superstructure. the final design of a suspension structure was selected by the French authorities.150 - . and then follow by a stochastic model with a general cost. The Delaware DOT then used this information to enhance its system of support for fleet operations . whereas cement production tends to cause the PCC option to have the highest global warming potential(GWP). approach and other costs) for bridges with concrete slab.com/ strategicconsulting. This development influenced the decision to build the Normandie Bridgeas a second river crossing. remove the aging pavement and replace it with hot-mix asphalt (HMA) pavement. 2009) and Donlen Corporation (http://www. donlen. Indications of rapid corrosion in the suspension cables were observed as early as 1965. Other fleet management consultants also include Automotive Resources International (http://www2. It shows how the owner organized the concurrent pursuit of many goals.Application of Replacement… S. The renewal theory can be applied in modeling the machine replacement problem. 2009).com/pdf/ Donlen_Product_SC_brochure.K. A.arifleet. The options are to remove and replace the aging pavement with PCC pavement. The matter became urgent in 1995 when as trand of one Tancarville cable broke because of advanced corrosion. It was determined that costs other than substructure and superstructure costs accounted for more than one-half of total replacement cost. The results show that materials production (e. In general. This paper compares three replacement options for an aging Portland cement concrete (PCC) pavement with the use of an LCA process-based protocol. asphalt. substructure. 2005). We begin with a deterministic model to illustrate the concept of a machine cycle. Specific instances include the Delaware Department of Transportation contracting with Mercury in 2004 to perform a comprehensive fit-gap analysis of its existing information. Beginning with a historical review.K.

length and deck area may generally be used to derive reliable estimates of bridge replacement costs. It was determined that the average overall unit cost of replacement for steel superstructure bridges was generally lower than that for concrete superstructure bridges.151 - . There are two methods to determine time of replacement. budgeting and programming (Rodriguez et al. In the case of the items following sudden failure mechanism.Replacement of item with discount rate (considering the value of money with time). 2006). i. gradual failure and sudden failure. In this case. No. i. This type of failure may cause safety risk to workers/road users. 1. several old bridges collapsed in 2011 in India.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering. It is sometimes found that repair cost is high. The cost of failure of an item may be quite high as compared to the value of the item itself. The item should be replaced before it actually fails. it will be better to replace/reconstruct. 1999). removing existing asphalt/base course depending on pavement condition. Replacement without Discount Rate The optimum replacement of the equipment will be . . REPLACEMENT THEORY Using the above data.e.. Collect the data relating to the depreciation cost and maintenance cost over a time period from the available source for the items which follow gradual failure mechanism. it is felt that the replacement theory can be applied for the reconstruction/replacement of pavement and bridge.Replacement of item without discount rate (without considering the value of money with time). a suitable OR model has been developed for the determination of exact time of replacing the item.. The replacement theory may have reduced death accidents. thus precipitating the cost of failure. Such type of failure accounts for increased expenditure in the form of operating costs. These are: . In road construction. Two real case studies are considered. Recently. The items which follow the sudden failure mechanism may fail any time. Items such as machines. Sudden failure may cause loss of production and may also cause faulty product. It was seen that differences in replacement costs across bridge types are attributable not necessarily to cost differences in material and construction procedures only but also to economy-ofscale effects. Based on past studies. The study also shows that economies of scale can play a significant role in reliable bridge cost estimation. A minimum of 300 people died. SCOPE OF WORK It has been found that previous research works were carried out about the replacement theory of machine equipment and few research works were conducted on bridge and pavement replacement methodology. 2012 earlier studies by asserting that basic bridge characteristics such as type. equipment… etc.e. decrease of productivity of the equipment and decrease in the values of the equipment. salvage value. generally rehabilitation is carried out every 5 to 10 years after verifying the existing strength of road. OPERATION RESEARCH (OR) METHODOLOGY OF SOLVING REPLACEMENT PROBLEMS OR provides a methodology for solving replacement problems. collect the data for failure rates cost of replacement for failing items and cost of preventive replacement.. There are two types of failure. Cost models can be used to predict total costs of future bridge replacements and are therefore useful for vital bridge management functions such as needs' assessment. Identify the items to be replaced and also their failure mechanism. The steps adopted for solving such replacement problems in OR have been discussed as shown below (Kapoor. follow the gradual failure mechanism and they deteriorate with time. Volume 6.

we first of all tabulate the net cash flow of the item and convert these costs to their present value by discounting at the relevant rate. Total maintenance cost incurred on the machine during N year is: N and equated to zero. 2.e. Bagui.K. Let C = capital cost of a certain item.M. Replacement with Discount Rate For finding the replacement period of any item. the present worth of all future discounted cost associated with the policy of replacing the item at the end of every N years will be given by: P(N)= (C+R1+R2V+---RNVN-1)(1+VN+V2N+V3N+V4N…) P(N) is the amount of money required now to pay for all future costs of acquiring and operating the equipment when it is renewed every N years. 0 It can be easily shown that this solution. Hence. F(t)=maintenance cost at time t. As the time value of the money is not to be considered.an item should be replaced when the average cost to date is equal to the current maintenance cost. Finally. TA=F(N) is minimum for T.Application of Replacement… S. 1. A. Let C = Initial cost. If we are given the resale value or depreciation cost. provided that F(t) is not decreasing and F(t)=0. Discounted cost has been used to establish the present value. Let the item be replaced at the end of every n th year. the maintenance cost and the cost of equipment.152 - . Let us consider a simple case which consists of minimizing the average annual cost of equipment whose maintenance cost is a function increasing with time and whose scrap value is constant. Ri = maintenance cost in the i th year. N=replacement year. then replace the equipment when maintenance cost becomes greater than the current average cost. S(t)=scrap value of the item after t years of operation.then optimum replacement period is determined by the minimum value of average cost to date.. r = discount rate. the above function is differentiated with respect to N Year Present Worth 1 C+R1 2---------N N+1 N+2-------2N R2V RNVN-1 (C+R1)VN R2VN+1 RNV2N-11 =(C+R1+R2V+----RNVN-1)[1/(1-VN)] Assuming that the item has no resale value at the end of the replacement period. TA is given by: TA = 1 [ C − S ( t ) + F ( t )dt ] N 0 ∫ To determine the optimum replacement time period. If the scrap value of the equipment is zero. If P(N) is less than P(N+1). Bhadra calculated according to the following methods. Suppose that the item is available for use over a series of time periods of equal intervals. then replacing the . Weighted average cost of each successive time interval is calculated by dividing the total cost by the cumulative value of the discount factor.K. i. the interest rate is zero and the calculation can be based on average annual cost. it is found that: F(N)= C − S( t ) 1 + N N N ∫ F ( t )dt = TA . The year-wise present worth of the expenditure on the item in the successive cycles of N years can be calculated as follows: 2N+1 (C+R1)V2N ∫ 0 F ( t )dt = ∑ F( t ) 0 N N Average annual cost. Chakraborti and S. V = 1/(1+r). the depreciation cost is not given.

Volume 6. if the best policy is the replacement every N years. as well as other places ∑ Depreciation Straight Line Method Depreciation is a noncash expense. Climate also has a strong influence on the pavement performance and may be accounted for in the design to some extent.Write in a column the maintenance costs of the equipment. rules for minimizing costs may be stated as follows: • Do not replace if the operating cost of the next periods is less than the weighted average cost of the previous years. In this model. create additional stresses on pavements. As a result of these two inequalities. In freeze/thaw environments. R N V N −1 . then two inequalities P(N+1)-P(N)>0 and P(N-1)-P(N)<0 must hold. . It only reduces taxable income and provides an annual tax advantage equal to the product of depreciation and the (marginal) tax rate. sands. but it does not lead to a cash outflow from the company.Calculate the cumulative discounted factor in the fifth column. Temperatures will cause pavements to expand and contract creating pressures that can cause pavements to buckle or crack. . BV= TPC. Binders in flexible pavements will also become softer at higher temperatures and more brittle at lower temperatures. chains and snow plows. Solar radiation can also cause some pavements to oxidize. Working Steps .Write the discount factor in the next column. . Under this method. Written Down Value Method Under this method. thereby resulting in increased susceptibility to erosion and weakening of the pavement structural strength. can be depreciable in its entirety.Compare the maintenance cost with the last column and find out the replacement year.Total cost= C+ . the annual depreciation equals a constant proportion of the initial investment. m (1) where m is the operation period and DEPi is the depreciation for each year.These two columns are multiplied to get the present value. Africa and North America. (2) EFFECT OF CLIMATE ON PAVEMENT LIFE The effects that climate will have on pavement must be considered as part of pavement engineering. This is particularly true for the Middle East. .Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering.Divide the total cost by the cumulative discount factor.153 - . the depreciation is calculated in accordance with the following equations: DEP = BV0 r0 1 DEP2 = BV0 r0 ( 1 − r0 ) DEPi = BV 0 ( 1 − r0 )( i −1 ) r0 where DEP = depreciation charge. and r0 = depreciation. The most common method for depreciation is the straight-line depreciation. . 1. . Precipitation can increase the potential for water to infiltrate the base and sub-base layers. 2012 equipment each N years is preferable to replacing it each N+1 years. Thus. No.Calculate the cumulative maintenance cost in the fourth column. DEPi = TPC . it is assumed that TPC . • Replace if the operating cost of the next periods is greater than the weighted average cost of the previous years. without giving proof. plus the use of salts. the expansion and contraction of water as it goes through freeze and thaw cycles. Further.

The growth rate has been determined based on the following methods: • Past Trend Analysis. Bagui. initially flexible pavement is designed for 10 years and major rehabilitation is recommended at the end of 10th year. The average annual air temperature is considered in design. Base traffic Vehicle Type Number of Vehicles Car 2480 Bus 1128 Light Commercial Vehicle 790 2-Axle Vehicle 1150 3-Axle Vehicle 576 Multi-Axle Vehicle 2160 CASE STUDY Replacement of pavement is an important criterion. Table 1.Determine the annual maintenance cost. and the discounted method has been adopted. Chakraborti and S.Application of Replacement… S. • Previous Study. Table 2. In cold climate. In general. Pavement life Country/Agency British Columbia Alberta Ontario Saskatchewan India National Highway Major District Road/Other District Roads Ethiopia Yemen Design of New Flexible Pavement (Year) 20 20 20 15 20 20 15 15 Rehabilitation of Flexible Pavement (Year) 20 20 15 10 10 10 10 for vehicle-modewise have been established. • Net State Domestic Product and Per Capita Income. Pavement should be replaced after a certain number of years of use which can be termed as economic life. potholes. A.Determine the initial cost of pavement. Considering all the above-mentioned methods. as well as minimum and maximum pavement temperatures.The same methodology as discussed above is used. Following steps are used to determine the replacement period of pavement: .M.K. . Opening year traffic (Tollable) is shown in Table 2. Traffic study has been carried out in December 1999 on a selected section of existing two lanes of NH 2 and growth factors . Bhadra where a wide range of climatic zones is encountered.K. It also varies among countries and places of the same country.Determine the structural maintenance cost and the year in which it is to be provided. Economic life of flexible pavement has been determined using this theory. Pavement life varies from hot climate to cold climate. Pavement life can be increased by providing functional and structural overlay in time before major distresses occur in pavement in the form of cracks. patches… etc. frost depth penetration is considered and additional sub-grade thickness is provided to reduce frost effect. This section represents the use of replacement theory pavement design. since this method takes care of time value money. from desert to cold climate.154 - .Determine the periodic maintenance cost and the year in which it is to be provided. . An example is mentioned in Table 1. suitable growth factors are established for projected traffic. Two case studies have been conducted. and the bitumen grade is fixed based on the average annual air temperature. .

470 50.318 0.987 0.000 8.955 1.146 0.605 5.361 0.333 21.111 0.333 41.667 35.020 1.827 6.929 59.047 0.337 0.604 0.049 50.740 9.452 0. Discount Factor Initial cost 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost 50.260 0.000 13.893 2.244 7.943 8.893 0.864 59.261 0.968 6.130 0.935 6.158 0.300 0.074 0.000 43.000 18.164 0.451 0.446 60.072 0.038 60.974 8.000 0.774 53.546 56.333 26.404 0.667 45.333 46.133 7.426 0.667 5.962 1.083 0.853 51.081 1.401 0.199 7.064 0.667 15.388 0.100 0.797 0.667 30.896 8.742 0.938 7.365 1.155 - Remark Year .053 0.120 8.564 5.193 54.183 0.795 6.037 57.469 8.042 0.300 50.124 0.678 10.300 0.089 0.817 58.478 5.743 6.667 0. No.537 0.333 1.586 50.257 0.023 13.093 0.366 8.037 4.204 0.216 0.118 0.935 8.667 10.288 1.514 60.057 6.856 6.992 6.584 50.000 23.193 2.066 0.567 0.263 11.250 8.085 0.205 0.984 9.131 0.562 8.068 0.838 0.667 40.703 7.163 0.767 6.636 0.228 0.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering.000 38.269 0. 2012 Table 3.904 15.037 1.076 0.667 25.143 7.000 1.700 58.194 7.114 8.059 0.402 4.719 0.000 3.662 7.300 26.424 7.575 58.000 48.328 6.499 7.333 31.116 0.000 28.107 53.864 6.718 8.173 0.000 33.578 61.159 0.184 58. Determination of replacement year for flexible pavement Weighted Average Cost (Rs Million) Flexible Pavement Maintenance Cost (Rs Million) Discounted Maintenance Cost (Rs Million) Discounted Total Cost (Rs Million) Cost after Depreciation/ Resale Value (Rs Million) Discount Factor Cum.767 TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE FALSE TRUE .155 0.882 57.094 0.322 0.444 58.104 0.546 53.229 0.000 1.375 60.808 0.667 20.784 8.811 7.762 0. Volume 6.361 7.387 56.439 0.333 36.447 1.507 0.333 6.254 2.529 8.299 60.650 6.645 8.770 59.569 0.928 7.333 16.357 3.022 0.690 3.111 5.534 12.563 9.670 59.287 0.886 6.146 3.712 0.640 6.333 11.628 7.000 0.284 0.719 56.147 1.724 18.954 60. 1.843 8.989 54.

Bagui.333 36.885 0.205 0.K.243 1.073 8.000 44.718 8.074 0.000 1.173 1.345 0.943 8.171 57.701 64.188 0.128 0.690 3.146 0.402 4.800 57.474 8.022 0.K.618 0.115 0.452 0.333 13.598 67.109 0.811 7.322 0.651 7.833 1.346 1.874 68.135 0.366 8.917 23.626 TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE FALSE TRUE .938 7.674 67.107 10.489 0.797 0.550 6.773 61.314 61.193 9.587 0.411 3.143 0.719 7.889 65.M.507 0.469 66.040 66.845 58.657 8.664 1.667 5.840 7.319 8.300 0.257 0.740 17.469 8.097 0.502 64.366 0.761 7.262 0.250 15.183 0.827 0.083 0.343 68.624 7.655 0.500 55.736 3. A.483 0.361 0.169 0.712 0.309 0.122 13.334 66.082 0.Application of Replacement… S.583 53.083 19.229 0.327 0.393 10.199 0.564 5. Sensitivity analysis for replacement year for flexible pavement (Increasing cost by 15%) Cum.186 8.500 0.279 0.222 2.548 1.172 58.235 0.000 21.037 4.784 8.583 30.974 8.570 1. Bhadra Table 4.404 0.567 0.106 1.683 7.388 0.565 67. Chakraborti and S.194 7.287 0.845 30.156 - Remark Year .985 7.853 0.843 8.236 66.167 17.173 68.000 1.562 61.750 26.500 9.500 32.178 0.163 0.833 24.417 11.804 0.667 28.000 0.645 8.044 8.059 0.729 9.776 67.732 21.116 0.037 1.636 0.495 68.318 4.019 64.424 7.417 34.250 38.978 7.421 68.929 0.066 0.053 0.917 46.083 42.984 9.481 1.450 67.248 0.694 0.917 0.519 0.797 62.462 0.260 68.087 0.788 8.750 3.093 0.063 7.833 47.315 12.047 0.583 7.044 11.277 15.345 0.067 65.650 6.628 7.931 0.481 58.167 40. Discount Factor Discounted Total Cost (Rs Million) Weighted Average Cost (Rs Million) Cost after Depreciation/ Resale Value (Rs Million) Maintenance Cost (Rs Million) Discounted Maintenance Cost (Rs Million) Flexible Pavement Discount Factor 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Initial cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost 57.328 6.151 0.750 49.605 5.130 0.052 61.078 0.353 9.074 0.896 8.250 8.111 5.104 0.968 6.893 0.904 7.667 51.191 66.785 7.042 0.562 8.764 8.893 2.120 8.305 57.876 0.292 2.103 0.

250 19.567 0.083 39.022 0.146 0.867 0.094 1.500 7. 1.026 42.089 0.534 7.362 0.797 0.147 0.754 5.132 0.111 5.690 3.333 9.000 0.667 4.822 47.984 9.216 1.042 0.406 5.913 6.287 0.366 8.795 5.961 48.264 6.833 18.784 8.095 0.896 8.687 0.718 8.544 2.250 8.228 0.085 0.250 36.183 0.000 1.843 8. Volume 6.452 0.974 8.255 0.770 11.656 TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE FALSE TRUE .996 43.093 48.229 0.167 50.630 0.055 0.177 9.906 0.959 5.074 0.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering.030 49.163 0.626 51.705 5.241 0.322 0.513 0.441 45.572 50. No.047 0.205 0.514 50.116 0.424 7.160 1.917 25.383 0.139 0.037 1.106 0.221 0.341 0. Sensitivity analysis for replacement year for flexible pavement (Decreasing Cost by 15 %) Cum.812 48. Discount Factor Discounted Total Cost(Rs Million) Weighted Average Cost (Rs Million) Cost after Depreciation/ Resale Value (Rs Million) Maintenance Cost (Rs Million) Discounted Maintenance Cost (Rs Million) Flexible Pavement Discount Factor 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Initial cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost 42.651 0.072 0.698 42.417 17.919 0.611 0.453 50.051 5.361 0.495 6.500 41.507 0.645 8.361 1.167 29.225 43.157 - Remark Year .833 35.333 26.000 15.319 45.130 0.224 49.938 7.053 0.104 0.194 7.679 5.750 11.430 0.562 8.093 0.842 5.655 5.164 1.183 0.068 12.648 0.083 5.755 22.736 5.685 0.715 16.500 0.287 0.210 7.728 5.667 21.076 0.066 0.399 6.230 1.902 8.835 0.112 0.100 0.096 50.484 0.842 8.924 49.896 5.120 8.583 31.811 7.125 0.000 32.083 22.675 47.417 0.917 8.667 38.000 1.270 0.061 0.605 5.840 47.130 49.303 10.855 49.503 45.400 42.967 5.037 4.685 6.389 50.583 14.255 0.893 2.628 7.500 24.636 0.650 6.818 0.194 0.191 6.968 6.167 12.755 42.750 28.833 1.564 5.595 0.304 2.059 0.083 0. 2012 Table 5.218 48.943 8.974 3.676 45.080 0.939 50.149 6.173 0.893 0.417 34.328 6.635 5.457 0.402 4.020 50.257 0.404 0.064 0.126 45.681 7.469 8.058 0.250 2.712 0.

255 0.192 9.100 1.991 17.890 1.800 4.037 0.738 16.104 0.011 0. Chakraborti and S. Bhadra Table 6.055 9.067 0.938 1.687 1.928 1.013 0.500 10.404 0.897 16.249 2.106 0.537 2.176 9.718 8.075 8.277 15.018 0.316 0.112 9.213 15.130 0.700 11.655 4.010 0.500 13.400 11.089 0.208 9.900 12.900 3.500 7.008 Cum.938 7.054 16.241 0.096 0.221 9.424 7.043 0.000 14.017 0.893 1.286 0.700 5. Discount Factor 1.100 13.322 0.146 0.645 8.020 1.375 0.008 0.016 0.203 17.800 13.135 9.400 8.880 1.854 16.054 0.007 Discounted Total Cost (Rs Million) 15.968 6. Bagui.050 17.771 0.100 4.859 1.700 8.470 0.650 6.151 0.200 3.342 16.233 9.528 15.039 0.183 0.012 0.567 0.908 1.638 15.010 0.326 2.014 0.400 14.000 0.059 0.191 0.800 15.075 15.142 0.861 1.017 0.100 10.937 16.214 3.084 0.120 8.229 0.027 0.195 17.163 0.152 17.022 0.040 0.919 15.053 2.042 0.270 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Year Initial cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost 15.K.253 9.057 0.257 0.478 0.900 6.048 0.053 0.373 16.384 3.024 0.893 2.043 0.093 0.300 9.867 0.564 5.022 9.010 0.811 7.161 17.400 2.797 0.180 0.689 15.091 17.952 1.029 0.310 16.083 0.857 1.484 0.562 8.012 0.205 0.011 0.200 6.194 7.K.362 0.900 9.857 .600 9. Bridge project (case study) Weighted Average Cost (Rs Million) Resale Value (Rs Million) No Replacement TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE FALSE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE Maintenance Cost (Rs Million) Discounted Maintenance Cost (Rs Million) 0.158 - .383 1.074 0.974 16.491 3.071 0.402 4.009 0.637 2.300 12.421 2.021 0.037 0.843 8.500 4.138 2.604 0.712 0.202 0.000 1.134 0.000 5.146 15.863 1.100 7.066 0.116 0.846 3.244 9.051 0.361 0.893 0.322 0.457 0.262 9.000 11.452 0.876 16.097 16.300 3.917 1.636 0.213 16.585 15.227 0.060 2.177 16.611 0.328 6.024 0.469 8.690 3.142 17.784 8.009 1.007 17.021 0.132 17.805 16.867 1.700 2.987 1.120 0.013 0.179 17.014 0.628 7.270 0.019 0.366 8.008 0.700 14.047 0.009 0.800 7.648 0.431 16.900 1.600 6.092 2.000 8.865 1.111 5.018 0.287 0.251 0.200 9.861 1.341 0.870 1.877 0.113 0.100 0.000 0.200 12.103 17.031 0.085 9.513 0.872 1.078 17.Application of Replacement… S.507 0.858 1.431 0.002 5.210 Bridge Cost Discount Factor 1.820 2.576 0.600 12.974 8.800 10.157 9.075 0.M.007 0.015 0.896 8.943 8.025 0.184 2.300 6.160 0.400 5.028 0.984 9.037 4.968 1.876 1.956 16.065 17.188 17.030 0.844 0.250 8.033 0.885 1.605 5. A.000 2.041 0.018 0.019 0.075 0.403 16.080 0.033 0.156 0.818 0.121 17.138 16.064 0.830 16.395 0.600 3.992 2.

424 Weighted average cost for 14th year= 57. and the project cost was worked out and found to be Rs 50 million per km (2000 costing) as base cost. Linear depreciation method is considered. 1.005 0. lesser travel time. traffic of other roads may be attracted to improved road for better road geometric. Same year of replacement has been found out using sensitivity analysis. Discount Factor Year . 2012 Weighted Average Cost (Rs Million) Resale Value (Rs Million) 45 46 47 48 49 50 Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost Maintenance cost 1.5 Million per kilometer Increase of maintenance cost: 6% Discount rate: 12% Inflated maintenance cost at 14th Year:0.006 0. A sample calculation for the 14th year for better understanding is shown below.005 0. • Using these data.703 Maintenance cost for 15 th year: 6.15 and 25 years.06)^(14-1) Discounted total cost: 57.008 17.200 0.242 17. Engaged Consultants for Consultancy Services for Feasibility Study and Preparation of DPR for Construction of 45m span2 lane RCC Bridge over Bindal River in km.231 17.288 9.158<7. Inflation rate and discount rate are taken 6 and 12%.424= 7. • Structural overlay cost=Rs 5.032 1.856 1. the replacement year has been calculated and shown in Table 3.293 9.950on NH-72 (7).74 Million per km and to be provided after 5. Traffic at the opening year is obtained multiplying projected 2004 year traffic by 1.006 0. Project Cost The project road is 15km long.3+5.094 1.007 0.301 0. Economic life has been carried out taking the following major cost (per kilometer) components: • Annual maintenance cost=Rs 0. riding quality. .283 9. Initial project costs: Rs 50 Million per Kilometer Annual routine maintenance cost: Rs 0. Year 2004 is the year of opening.006 0.06^14(.20 and 30 years. Bridge Project The Government of Uttarakhand.006 0. replacement is not required. No. • Functional overlay cost=Rs 2.11324 1.3 Million per kilometer Functional maintenance cost: Rs 2.900 0.000 0.004 0.219 17. A bridge case study is considered. annual routine cost and periodic overlay cost are varied ± 15 % of the base cost and the economic replacement life is calculated for case 1 and shown in Tables 4 and 5.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering. shorter distance… etc.855 1.855 TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE FALSE TRUE Induced and Generated Traffic After the improvement of the existing facility.74 Million per kilometer Structural maintenance cost: Rs 5.184 Cumulative discount factor: 7.703.236 17.3*(1.856 1.300 0.230 2.855 1. Volume 6. 157.159 - No Replacement Maintenance Cost (Rs Million) Discounted Maintenance Cost (Rs Million) Discounted Total Cost (Rs Million) Bridge Cost Discount Factor Cum.500 1.10.184/7.005 0.5) Since maintenance cost at 15th year is less than weighted average cost of 7.009 0.5 Million and to be provided after10. Major maintenance cost.274 1. Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analysis is generally carried out varying one parameter at one time.053 1.276 9.004 9.160 1.855 1.225 17.297 9.600 0. This traffic is assumed 10 % of the traffic at the time of opening.703 13.3 million. Existing traffic may be capable to generate more trips due to lesser travel time/increasing travel speed for the up-gradation of the road.250 1.

K.dot.M. No. Periodic maintenance cost = Replacement of bearings 0. State Government: State Customers.assetworks. Computerized Equipment Replacement Methodology. Nahmias. Machemehl. Strategic Consulting. and Stephen. A. Weissmann. S. D. 2006. the replacement year has been calculated and shown in Table 6.C. R.160 - . Donlen Corporation product brochure.J. Destination: Strategic Consulting Services.K. (http://www. A. Operation Research. D. and Gona. The same principle can be used to determine economic life elevated segmental structure like elevated highway/elevated metro.5 % of initial cost= Rs 0. Jannini. H.uk/cri/).. 13-23. Ghosh. 1999. and Zongzhi. B. A. Available at http://www. Washington. 1997. Indian Journal of History of Science. T. Automotive Resources International. Educational Publisher. D. Replacement of The Suspension System of the Tancarville Bridge. Equipment Replacement Optimization: Part I.tx. underground metro.T.us/ pub/txdot-info/gsd/pdf/txdoterm.C. These values should be determined by experts of these relevant fields for the determination of replacement period. TxDOT Equipment Replacement Model-TERM.. 1654: 113-128. J. Journal of Transportation Research Record. Transportation. Bagui. (1824): 77-83. 1958. runway… etc. V. 2 (2): 240247. 2005.. Available at http://www. Annual maintenance cost has been increased every year @6% of the previous year’s maintenance cost. J. International Journal of Applied Mathematical Sciences. D. (1824): 77-83.M. Periodic maintenance cost=Rs 0.C. 2011. Weissmann. annual maintenance cost. K. 2009. S. Labi. and Kortum.W. 2170. REFERENCES Allen. January 23-27. Life-Cycle Assessment of Reconstruction Options for Interstate Highway Pavement in Seattle. Chakraborti and S.C. CONCLUSIONS Economic life of pavement can be determined using the replacement theory. Washington. Bhadra Total cost = Rs 15Million. W.bath... M. 2009.3 million to be provided every 5th year.ac. Published in: Transportation Research Record and Presentation at the 90th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. periodic maintenance cost. J.K.Application of Replacement… S. Kapoor. Washington.com/page/ state-government. McGraw Hill International.. Annual maintenance cost @0. 2009. 2009..K. Reliable data of: initial cost. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. 1994. 2003. L. India.arifleet. Available at http://www2. M. S. Virlogeux. Statistical Data Analysis and Cost Forecasting.M.pdf. and Gona. Randy. Journal of Transportation Research Record. Weissmann.donlen. Washington. A. Rodriguez. No. Solution Methodology.com/ strategicconsulting. strengthening cost and year of application are important parameters. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies.K. Enhanced Bridge Replacement Cost Models for Indiana’s Bridge Management System. Weissmann. On the Use of Renewal Theory in Machine Replacement Models.pdf. Using these data. 2004.state.. 18–27. Journal of the Transportation Research Board. New Delhi. 2003. Sultan Chand and Sons.. ftp://ftp. Journal of the Transportation Research Board. Chicago. Inc.075 million.htm.75 million to be provided every 20th year. expressway. Production and Operation Analysis.J. W. 2006.B. S. Mahalanobis and the Art and Science of Statistics: The Early Days. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. Computerized Equipment Replacement Methodology.com/pdf/Donlen_Product_SC_broc hure. Washington. . 2010. and Ching. 29 (1): 89-98. Fan. Craig. Accessed on January 20. white trooping concrete pavement. AssetWorks.

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