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06 Feb.

09

United - States: Non farm productivity and Unit labor costs increased at the fourth quarter
United - States: Initial jobless claims reached their highest level since 1982 and continuing claims
climbed on record

U.S. equity markets did not pay much attention to the sharp rise in weekly jobless claims

Weekly US Initial Jobless claims
since 1980

Source : Department of Labor
As the United-States are strongly hit by the slowdown of the global demand and as household are hit by
the credit crunch cutting their consumption ( representing 2/3 of the GDP), companies are massively
cutting jobs in reaction to the gloomy economic outlook. As a matter of fact initial jobless claims
increased by 35 000 to 626 000 (their highest level since 1982), and continuing claims rose on record at
4.78 millions underlining the deepening deterioration of the labour market.

Indexes Price % 5 Days Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJIA 8063,1 -0,95% -8,13% EUR/USD 1,2761 -0,38% -8,64%
S&P 500 845,9 0,17% -6,36% EUR/JPY 116,01 -0,69% -8,42%
Nasdaq 1546,2 2,61% -1,95% USD/JPY 90,91 -1,08% 0,29%
CAC 40 3066,3 1,88% -4,71% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DAX 4510,5 1,86% -6,23% Brent $/b 45,7 1,71% 9,46%
Eurostoxx 50 2293,2 1,14% -6,31% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 194,5 2,06% -1,95% Gold $/oz 916,1 -1,29% 3,84%
FTSE 100 4228,9 1,27% -4,63% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 8076,6 -3,66% -8,84% Central Banks* 0,25 2,00 0,11
Shanghai Comp 2181,2 4,64% 19,80% Overnight 0,25 1,00 0,11
Sensex (India) 9229,7 -1,57% -4,33% 3 Months 0,27 1,05 0,29
MICEX (Russia) 623,2 0,64% 0,59% 10 Years** 2,89 3,33 1,35
Bovespa (Brasil) 41108,7 3,71% 9,48% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi
** Euro: German Bund rate Source : Bloomberg
Neil Barofsky, appointed by the Senate in December as inspector-general for the troubled asset relief programme,
publishes his first report on how funds in the US banking bail-out package are being spent
Middle East Electricity Summit, (from February 8 to February 10)
World Ski Championship (Val d’Isère, France) Fev 3rd – 15th
51st Grammy Awards (Los Angeles)

Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous
08.45 am France Trade balance December € - 5,2 milliards € - 5,7milliards € - 6,2 milliards
10.30 am United-Kingdom Production output January 0,5%,+2,0% YoY -2,0%,+4,3% YoY
10.30 am United-Kingdom Manufacturing production December -1,4%,-8,5% YoY -2,9%,-7,4% YoY
10.30 am United-Kingdom Industrial production December -1,2%,-7,8% YoY -2,3%,-6,9% YoY
02.30 pm United-States Change in nonfarm payrolls January 480 000 -540 000 - 524 000
02.30 pm United-States Unemployment rate January 7,3% 7,5% 7,2%
02.30 pm United-States Change in manufacturing payrolls January - 145 000 - 149 000
02.30 pm United-States Average hourly earning January 0,2%, +3,6%YoY 0,3%,+3,7% YoY
02.30 pm United-States Average weekly hours January 33,3 33,3
09.00 pm United-States Consumer credit December $ - 3,5 milliards $ - 7,9 milliards

!

Results Le « Sarkonomics » sans peine
Infineon / Julius Baer / British Airways / Syngenta / La Tribune, p 3
Unibail / Volvo Gloom drives central -bank actions
The Wall Street Journal, p 2
Dispute intensifies on stimulus proposal
Financial Times, p 2
La Banque centrale européenne conforte les attentes
d’une baisse des taux en mars
Les Echos, p 8
Déficit record du commerce extérieur de la France
Le Figaro économie, p 18

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Economic data preview

Today ,watch in the United States the release of the employment report for January due at 14.30 am : the change in non farm payrolls
expected to slightly improved as a correction of the over adjustment by companies massively cutting jobs of last month and watch the
unemployment rate expected to slightly increase as the gloomy economic outlook generate a raise of global unemployment .

Watch in the France the release of the Trade balance due at 08.45 am and expected to improve at the euro is on a down trend boosting
French exportations s and as the drop of the energetic bill reduce the importations //JB

ate

ECONOMY

UNITED - STATES: NON FARM PRODUCTIVITY AND UNIT LABOR COSTS INCREASED AT THE FOURTH QUARTER
The country if facing its worst recession in 25 years and productivity in the U.S economy continue to grow at a fast rhythm. Indeed non
farm productivity rose from 1.5% to 3.2% annualised rate at the fourth quarter as firms reduced employment and hours worked at a faster
pace than output. In the mean time labour cost increased by only 1.8% annualized in the fourth quarter. Over last year productivity
increased by 2.7% while unit labour costs increased by only 0.7%.

UNITED - STATES: INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS REACHED THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1982 AND CONTINUING CLAIMS CLIMBED ON RECORD
As the United-States are strongly hit by the slowdown of the global demand and as household are hit by the credit crunch cutting their
consumption ( representing 2/3 of the GDP), companies are massively cutting jobs in reaction to the gloomy economic outlook. As a
matter of fact initial jobless claims increased by 35 000 to 626 000 (their highest level since 1982), and continuing claims rose on record at
4.78 millions underlining the deepening deterioration of the labour market.

UNITED - STATES: FACTORY ORDERS FELL IN DECEMBER
Factory orders dropped from - 6.5% in November to -3.9% in December for the fifth time in a row. Indeed the rise of the unemployment
and the lake of credit are sharply cutting sales in the United-States and abroad. The U.S. are facing now a vicious circle : Lake of demand
generate cut in investment and job cuts generating drop of households consumption as their purchase power is hit , cutting the demand …
The Obama rescue plan aim to stimulate private investment and to rise hiring in order to increase private consumption ( 2/3 of the
GDP).Nevertheless the United-States will remain dependant of the revival of the foreign demand which they do not control.

GERMANY: FACTORY ORDERS PLUNGED IN DECEMBER
Manufacturing orders in Germany dropped in December at ( -6.9%,-25.1% YoY) extending the worst decline on record and reached a
lower level than the expected ( forecast : -2.5%,-24.5% YoY).Germany is facing its worst recession since world war two. Indeed German
growth model mainly based on exportation is strongly hit by the fall of the global demand and household purchase power is cut by the
credit crunch and by the rise of the unemployment . Logically German companies are cutting outputs and jobs in reaction of the gloomy
economic situation.

UNITED-KINGDOM : THE BANK OF ENGLAND CUT ITS LEADING RATE OF 50 BP
The United-Kingdom is facing one of the worst economic crisis of its history : firstly the country is now technically in recession as the GDP
dropped at the fourth quarter of 1.5% ( the sharpest drop since 1979) after dropping of 0.6% at the third quarter ( technical recession is
defined as two consecutive quarter drop of the GDP). Secondly the United Kingdom is hit by a sharp bank crisis and must face a credit
crunch affecting household and private companies. And finally the “real estate bubble” born from the easy credit situation exposed with
the financial crisis . The United-Kingdom is now on the road to deflation which will be the worst case for the economy. According to this
gloomy economical situation the Bank of England had no choice but to pursue its easing monetary policy and after cutting its repo rate of
50 bp ( to reach 1.5%) January 8 th the BoE cuts again its rate of 50 bp today to reach 1.00%. The Bank of England is progressively
moving toward the 0% interest situation and quantitative easing policy.

EURO AREA : THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK LEAVE INTERES RATE ON HOLD
Despite the fact that the Euro area is facing its worst recession since the second world war and despite the fact that now inflation is not a
threat anymore (inflation dropped at 1.6% YoY in December), the European Central Bank decided to wait the release of the fourth quarter
GDP ( in February) to reduce again its refi rate. As a matter of fact its is now obvious that Mr Trichet will cut the ECB leading rate in
march. The European Central Bank is unfortunately loosing time and its lake of reactivity as the Euro economic situation is terrible may
deeper and longer the recession . If this situation last to long it could be a threat for the surviving of the Euro Area especially if we add the
social risk to the economical risk. /JB

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U.S. equity markets did not pay much attention to the sharp rise
in weekly jobless claims
U.S. equity markets rose yesterday as they did not pay much attention to the sharp rise in weekly jobless claims.
Markets definitely know that employment data are lagging indicators. Actually, markets focused on the “Bad Bank” issue
(details may be unveiled on Monday) and Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan (nearly $900bn stimulus
package of about 6 % of GDP that will be spread over the next 3 years) that should be passed at the Senate next week.
Visa (+9.38 %) said revenue rose 16.9 % at $1.739bn ($1.680 exp.), with total transaction +8% at $9.8bn, payment
volume +12% but quarter to quarter at a slower pace. Net profit rose 35.4 % at $574m ($424m n-1), Ebit +39.5%
Reaffirms FY09 EPS guidance but sees H2 tougher. MasterCard (+14.05) said revenue rose 14.2 % at $1.2bn ($1.19bn
exp.) with net profit down 21% at $239.4m ($304.2m n-1). 2009 net revenue growth likely to be lower vs longer term
objective range. Banks were on the upside (American Express +4.10 %, Bank of America +2.98 %, JP Morgan +2.08
%, Goldman Sachs +5.55 %, Morgan Stanley +5.36 %) while other financials were mixed: State Street -2.53 %, AIG -
2.91 %. Homebuilders rose: KB Home +2.84 %, Pulte Homes +4.16 %, DR Horton +7.31 %, Lennar +6.08 %, Beazer
Homes +6.02 %. Cisco (+3.22 %) topped Street estimates in its fiscal Q2 but warned that revenues would fall as much as
20% in the first three months of 2009. Techs were mixed (Microsoft +2.20 %, Apple +3.11 %, Oracle +2.38 %, Hewlett-
Packard -2.61 %, Motorola -1.87 %, Dell -3.68 %) while semiconductors rose: Nvidia +7.34 %, Xilinx +6.46 %, National
Semiconductor +5.23 %, Altera +4.91 %, Texas Instruments +2.37 %, Intel +2.67 %, AMD +3.97 %, Sun
Microsystems +10.26 %, Broadcom +6.01 %. In retail, same-store sales fell in January, but not at Wal-Mart (+4.61 %)
that topped Street estimates for January sales. The world' s largest retailer posted a 2.1% sales gain at stores in the U.S.
open at least a year. However, Wal-Mart appeared to hedge its bets against volatility. The company said it would no
longer provide monthly sales guidance, choosing instead to offer 13-week projections. Retailers were mixed: J.C. Penney
-2.27 %, Family Dollar -5.93 %, Office Depot -3.87 %, Home Depot +3.08 %, Target +3.03 %, Nordstrom +4.65 %,
"#$%& Gap +5.92 %, AnnTaylor Stores +7.44 %. McDonald's (+0.86 %) has cut prices on nearly half of its menu items in China
'()*%+ by as much as 33%, CNBC. The world' s largest restaurant chain is now selling half of its items at prices comparable to the
menu in 1999 or earlier. Meanwhile, Burger King (-6.18 %) posted lower earnings, missed estimates and dropped its
guidance. Procter & Gamble (+1.52 %) is looking to exit the drug business. The health products firm has hired Goldman
Sachs to help pinpoint potential buyers for P&G' s pharmaceuticals division. Boeing (+1.79 %) rose although a Dubai
based aircraft leasing company called LCAL has decided to cancel 16 of the 21 “Dreamliners” it had ordered. This marks
the second time this month that a customer has chosen to walk away from the long-awaited airplane. With the exception of
General Electric (-3.64 %), industrials and defence rose: Deere +5.71 %, Caterpillar +3.30 %, Tyco +2.58 %. Auto-parts
suppliers are following the lead of Detroit' s Big three in seeking government aid. In a request to the US treasury
Department. An industry group representing 400 parts makers asks for $25.5 billion in aid and guarantees (Delphi -10.38
%) Ford (-1.03 %) said to be in talks to sell Volvo Car Unit to China’s Geely Auto Holdings. Ford paid $6.4bn in
1999.General Motors (+5.15 %) rose. Oil companies (ExxonMobil +2.73 %, Anadarko +4.51 %), oil services
(Halliburton +3.68 %, Schlumberger +5.37 %, Transocean +4.71 %) rose while refiners declined: Valero -0.88 %,
Sunoco -8.44 %. Basic resources rose: Alcoa +3.07 %, US Steel +3.35 %, Nucor +3.51 %, Allegheny Tech +2.95 %,
Freeport McMoran +3.92 %, Newmont Mining +2.30 %. In other earnings news, Cigna (+18.70 %) swung to a Q4 loss
of $209 million, or 77 cents a share, compared with a net gain of $263 million, or 93 cents a share, in the year-ago period.
The health insurer topped analysts'estimates but lowered its 2009 forecast.
AFTER SESSION: Bank of America (+6.4 %) and Citigroup (+3.7 %) rose while NewsCorp (-9.2 %) decreased after
cutting profit forecast to a decline of 30 %.
This morning (08.00 GMT) INDEX FUTURES for March expiry were down or unchanged : DJIA -0.15 %, S&P 500 -
0.08 % %, Nasdaq unch. %./JFV
Treasury prices were slightly higher Thursday, but they pared an earlier gain after U.S. data showed initial claims for
unemployment benefits jumped last week to the highest level since 1982. Note the US government will sell a record $67
billion in notes and bonds next week to finance its various bailout plans. The Treasury also announced that it might start
, -./ selling 30-year bonds every month, with a decision coming in May that raised the prospect that every benchmark Treasury
'()*%+ issue will be sold every month later this year.
Treasurys 2-year rate at 0.96 %, -2 bp, 5-year rate at 1.88 %, -6 bps, 10-year rate at 2.89 %, -4 bps, 30-year rate at
3.64 %, +2 bps). The 10-year Treasury U.S./Europe rate spread was unchanged at -45 bps. /LC
Japan’s markets climbed of 126.97 pts or 1.6 % to close at 8,076.62 in Tokyo extending the Nikkei Stock Average’s
second weekly gain . The market was led up by Wall Street and by the drop of the yen against the dollar and against the
euro, lifting the earnings prospects for cars makers and electronics. Component sector went up (Tokyo
+$'. Electron+7.16%,NTT+4.26%,Advantest +3.99%),Toshiba fell(-3.66%), electronic rose(Canon+4.92%,Sharp
"#$%& +4.51%,Nikon+4.11%)and Olympus which counts Europe as its biggest overseas market rose 2.2%,car sector went up
(Mazda +4.97%,Suzuki+3.96%) and Honda motor which gets more than half of its sales from North America jumped
'()*%+
3.9% after the yen fell to a one month low. Financials went slightly up (Mizuho +2.26%,Resona Holdings +2.24%),heavy
industry sector went up ( Daikin Industries +5.39%),telecom sector went up ( Trend Micro +11.49%,Softbank +7.25%)
and despite expectations OPEC will cut production, oil sector went down (INPEX -1.94%). /JB
Crude oil prices sharply rose yesterday on hopes that OPEC might cut its production again and in spite of the grim US
economic data (the factory orders dropped 3.9 % while the number of new claims for state unemployment benefits surged
to their highest level since 1982.) The WTI rose2.11 % at $41.17 a barrel while the Brent surged 3.30 % at $45.63 a
$0 barrel. Note that US natural gas prices rose after weekly inventories data showed a fall of 195bn cubic feet for gas in
storage, above the 190bn consensus forecast and the largest decline of the winter to date. The futures one month
weredown this morning 0.73 % at $40.87 a barrel. /LC
The euro fell against the dollar on European Central Bank comments mentioning that the euro zone was undergoing
and extended downturn , the dollar surged to a nearly one month high versus the Yen and rose as well against the British
-(*1 pound despite the rate cut of 50 bp from the Bank of England as concerns are high on the United-Kingdom economic
outlook. Exchanges rate were as follow euro/usd 1.27 (-0.46%),usd /yen 91.23 ( +2.01%), usd/ British pound
1.46(+0.98%)./JB

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Europe America Asia
Indices 5/2/09 % Chg Indices 5/2/09 % Chg Indices 6/2/09 % Chg
EuroStoxx 50 2293 -0,20% DJIA 8063 +1,34% Nikkei 8077 +1,60%
DJ 600 195 -0,09% S&P 500 846 +1,64% Topix 791 +0,56%
FTSE 100 4229 +0,01% NASDAQ 1546 +2,06% Hong Kong 13448 +1,98%
DAX (XETRA) 4510 +0,39% TSX 8861 +1,93% Singapore 1707 +0,13%
CAC 40 3066 -0,09% Bolsa (Mexico) 19737 +0,58% South Korea 1210 +2,75%
AEX (Pays Bas) 253 -0,90% Bovespa (Br.) 41109 +2,44% Thailand 441 +1,80%
SMI (Suisse) 5107 -2,27% Merval (Argent.) 1111 +2,94% Indonesia 1346 +1,26%
S&P / MIB (Italie) 19046 +0,23% IPSA (Chili) 12432 +0,58% Taiwan 4471 +2,48%
IBEX 35 (Esp.) 8440 -0,65% IGBVL (Pérou) 6871 -0,23% China 2181 +3,97%
BVL (Portugal) 2108 -0,55% India 9234 +1,53%
Source : Bloomberg
Euro Stoxx 50 % Euro Stoxx 50 % Dow Jones % Dow Jones % Nikkei 225 % Nikkei 225 %
4,81 AG-REG
MUENCHENER RUECKVER UNILEVER NV-CVA -6,00 5,15
GENERAL MOTORS CORP GENERAL ELECTRIC-3,64
CO SOFTBANK CORP7,25 FURUKAWA CO LTD-4,60
SAP AG 2,60 -5,67
SOCIETE GENERALE WAL-MART STORES 4,61
INC -2,91 GROUP
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL 7,21INC
NIPPON PAPER GROUP -4,39LTD
NIPPON SUISAN KAISHA
DOWN

DOWN

DOWN
UP

UP

UP
DEUTSCHE BOERSE2,22
AG -4,19 AMERICAN EXPRESS4,10
DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED CO HEWLETT-PACKARD-2,61
CO 7,16
TOKYO ELECTRON LTD AEON CO LTD -4,31
ALSTOM 2,02 -3,44
CREDIT AGRICOLE SA CATERPILLAR INC 3,30 ALTRIA GROUP INC -1,67 7,04 LTD
HOKUETSU PAPER MILLS -4,28K K
DENKI KAGAKU KOGYO
VIVENDI 1,69 IBERDROLA SA -3,00 HOME DEPOT INC 3,08 -1,53
WALT DISNEY CO/THE NSK LTD 6,57 KOBE STEEL LTD -4,20

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2
LVMH : FY sales €17.2bn (17.14bn e) / Operating €3.63bn (3.60bn e) / Div. €1.60, unch. / Watches & jewelry a bit weak offset by
strong Vuitton / Sees further mket share gain in 2009 / Did not provide any guidance for 2009 (not a surprise) but said January was
OK
HERMES : Q4 Sales €541m (€533m exp) / Said 2008 results to be close to initial targets / Sees 2009 revenues in line with 2008 &
says 2009 operating profit may fall slightly
UNIBAIL-RODAMCO : FY recuring EPS €8.52 (€8.47 exp) / Fully diluted NAV €152.2 end 2008 (€172 at end of June) / FY div of
€7.5 (as exp) / Expects recurring EPS growth of 7% mini on 2009-02-06
CNP ASSURANCES : FY premium income €28.32bn (26.7bn exp) / Q4 Premium Income €8.25bn (€6.4bn exp) / Reiterates
targets
SYNGENTA : FY sales $11.62bn (11.56bn e) / Dividend SFR6 / Said early signs for the northern hemisphere season are
encouraging
JULIUS BAER : FY net new money private banking SFR 17 bn / Net profit SFR852m (863m exp) / Dividend SFR 0.50 / Total client
assets SFR 338 bn (315bn exp) / To continue share buyback of up to SFR2bn / In Pvt bking, sees PTP margin >37% (42% exp)
NOVARTIS has no plans for a major acquisition (CEO in Die Welt) / Said credit remains a problem & doubts recession has hit its
bottom
INFINEON : Q4 sales €830m (802m exp) / Raised target for cost savings to €600m /
ENEL : ACCIONA is OK to accept €8 bn cash from Enel for its 25% stake in Endesa in addition to renewable energy assets
(Expansion)
COMMERZBANK : CEO said he was in favour of individual banks pooling troubled securities rather than the creation of a central "bad
bank" to handle the toxic assets / He said number of defaults on company loans may rise & 2009 will not be good year for banking…
CAR MAKERS : U.K. Business Secretary said lawmakers are considering a plan to help the auto industry that would allow drivers to
swap older vehicles for new ones (FT)
RENAULT : Nissan said it is considering applying for government assistance, which would likely take the form of around Y50 bn in
low-interest funds raised from the state-backed Development Bank of Japan (the Nikkei)
SSE remains on course to deliver goals for the period to 31 March / On course to deliver a FY div of at least 66p (as exp) / Avg prices
for electricity customers will fall by 9% & for gas customers will fall by 4%
BRITISH AIRWAYS : Q3 loss before tax of £70 m (-100m exp) / FY rev. outlook unch (up at least 4% yoy) / Jan. traffic -1.3% (-3%
e)
TELEFONICA expects O2 to have outperformed the mket in Britain in the Q4 even though customers reluctant to sign up to LT
contracts

VOLVO : Q4 sales Sek 77bn (74.6bn exp) / Operating loss Sek 1bn (+475m exp) / Dividend Sek 2 (2.49 exp) / Q4 heavy truck
orderintake –82% / Do not expect demand recovery in H1
MAN AG : The German market for heavy trucks weighing 16 tonnes or more contracted by 27% in January while domestic production
of all commercial vehicles nearly halved (VDA association)
SKANSKA : Q4 revenue Sek39bn (38.03bn e) / PTP Sek 71m (625m e) due to property writedowns of Sek1.3bn / Q4 construction
order bookings Sek 27.6bn (26.9bn e) / Div. SeK 5.25 / Demand for buiding construction weakening in all mkets / Dropped 2010
targets
XSTRATA : Glencore faces trouble in getting financing for the expansion of its refinery (Colombia'
s second largest) because of the
world crisis (Mines and Energy Ministry)
EIFFAGE : FY sales €13.23bn (13.45bn e) / Order book at end Dec. €10.4bn (+6% yoy) / Org. growth of about 1.5% (vs Vinci
+4.4%)
TELEKOM : Mobile phone operators were unable to persuade the EC to dilute plans which will cut their routing fees by >70%
(Reuters)

TOYOTA : Moody' s Investors Service cut its credit rating on Toyota Motor for the first time in a decade / As expected, Toyota widened
its operating loss forecast to Y450bn (net loss seen Y350bn) / Has not decided on H2 dividend

TOTALRAISED TO BUY FROM HOLDV BY CITIGROUP
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS RAISED TO OUTPERFORM BY CREDIT SUISSE
UNILEVERS RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL OFF CONVICTION SELL LIST BY GOLDMAN SACHS

SWISS RE CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY BY UBS
ATOS ORIGIN CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY BY UBS
STATOIL CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY BY CITIGROUP
MICHELIN CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD BY CITIGROUP
DANSKE BANK CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD BY CITIGROUP
TUI TRAVEL CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY BY CITIGROUP
ALCATEL LUCENT CUT TO SELL FROM NEUTRAL BY GOLDMAN SACHS
ACCOR CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM OUTPERFORM BY CREDIT SUISSE
DANSKE BANK CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY BY GOLDMAN SACHS

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23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -6-
www.global-equities.com
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Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company
23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -7-
www.global-equities.com
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