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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| December 26, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report
Wednesday| December 26, 2012 Market Highlights (% change)
as on December 24, 2012 Prev. day
0.1 0.1 -0.4

Highlights
• Indian rupee appreciated 0.2 percent in yesterday. • Markets remained dull due to Christmas vacations.
NIFTY SENSEX

Last
5855.8 19255.1 13139.08

WoW
0.0 0.1 -0.7

MoM
4.1 4.0 1.0

YoY
24.2 22.3 6.9

Asia markets are trading on a firm note taking cues from optimism that DJIA the new government in power is expected to announce stimulus S&P measures to boost the economy and tackle deflation of the nation.
FTSE

1426.7
N/A 1981.8

-0.2
N/A 0.1

-0.2
N/A -0.1

1.2
N/A 3.7

12.8
N/A 6.1

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) traded on the flat note due to rise in the risk aversion in the global markets and dull trades due to Christmas holidays. The index gained in the later part of day due to stalemate caused after difference in opinion amongst the law makers over the resolution of the fiscal cliff issue. US equities settled with negative bias on Monday as worries over the fiscal cliff issue of the nation still persists and the deadline for solving the same was less. This caused risk aversion in the global markets and initiated selling pressure amongst the market participants. If the law makers are unable to resolve the debt issue that might cause automatic spending cuts and tax hikes pushing the US economy back into recession. The index touched an intra-day low of 79.45 and closed at 79.75 on Monday.

KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan’13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Feb’12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar’12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

N/A N/A 85.93 1658.60 2983.90 7818.00 N/A

N/A N/A 0.8 0.0 -1.0 -0.4 N/A

N/A N/A 0.8 -2.3 -7.3 -2.9 N/A

N/A N/A -0.4 -5.3 -12.5 0.5 N/A

N/A N/A -11.8 3.4 2.7 2.6 N/A

100.12

0.1

0.1

0.7

-2.6

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)

as on December 24, 2012 Last Prev. day
0.0 0.2

Dollar/INR
Dollar Index

WoW
0.3 -0.2

MoM
-0.6 0.9

YoY
-0.6 -3.9

79.75 54.95

The Indian Rupee appreciated 0.2 percent on Monday taking cues on the back of dollar selling by the exporters along with sustained capital inflows by the FIIs. The rupee also gained tracking the firm performance of the domestic equity markets along with weak Dollar Index. The rupee closed at 54.95 after touching a high of 54.95 on Monday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 19353.50 crores till 24 December 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. th 1,22,625.60 crores till December 24 2012.
th

US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Dec’12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Dec’12 Futures (MCX-SX)

54.99 54.99

-0.32 -0.33

0.08 -1.07

-1.08 -1.07

3.88 3.88

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Outlook In today’s session, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate due to weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Month end and Year end dollar demand is likely to depreciate the currency further.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Dec’12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for December 26, 2012 Support 54.80/54.60 Resistance 55.20/55.35

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Currencies Daily Report
Wednesday| December 26, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro also ended on a mixed note on Monday. The currency witnessed strength in the early part of the trade due to weakness in the DX. Worries over the US fiscal cliff issue created risk aversion and strengthened the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.3189 and closed at 1.3186 on Monday. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Dec’12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 72.59/72.30 72.90/73.10

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Dec’12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Dec’12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.3186 72.62

as on December 24, 2012 Prev. day
0.0 0.0

WoW
0.2 -0.7

MoM
1.6 -1.1

YoY
1.1 #N/A

72.72 72.7

-0.12 -0.13

0.66 0.63

1.47 1.47

5.13 5.12

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Euro
valid for December 26, 2012 Support Resistance

GBP/INR
The Pound depreciated 0.3 percent on Monday due to weak global market sentiments and strength in the DX in the later part of the day. Dull trades were witnessed due to Christmas vacation. It touched an intra-day high of 1.6295 and closed at 1.6277 on Thursday. Outlook In today’s session, we expect Pound to trade in a narrow range as the markets are closed today due to observance of boxing day.
$ / GBP (Spot)

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last
1.6121

as on December 24, 2012

Prev. day
-0.3

WoW
-0.5

MoM
0.6

YoY
3.4

Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Dec ’12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for December 26, 2012 Support 88.85/88.55 Resistance 89.25/89.55

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Dec’12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Dec’12 Futures (MCX-SX)

88.618 89.065

-0.47 -0.55

-0.02 0.16

-0.27 0.59

7.67 7.35

89.065

-0.55

0.16

0.59

7.35

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report
Wednesday| December 26, 2012

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated 0.8 percent due announcement of stimulus measures by the new government in power. Decline in the demand for the low yielding currency also caused depreciation in the currency. It touched an intra-day low of 84.94 and closed at 84.92 on Monday. Outlook In the intra-day session, we expect to yen to depreciate due to expectation the new government would take aggressive steps to curtail deflation thereby boosting the economy. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Dec ’12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for December 26, 2012 Support 64.90/64.70 Resistance 65.45/65.70 Last JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Dec’12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Dec’12 Futures (MCX-SX)
84.92

as on December 24, 2012 Prev day
0.8

WoW
1.2

MoM
3.0

YoY
8.8

0.6474 65.13 65.13

-0.93 -0.71 -0.71

-0.74 -0.80 -0.81

-3.76 -3.62 -3.63

-4.22 -3.93 -3.91

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on December 26, 2012
Indicator Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes German Bank Holiday Italian Bank Holiday UK Bank Holiday S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y Country JPY EUR EUR UK US Time (IST) 5:20 am All Day All Day All Day 7:30 pm Actual Forecast 3.9% Previous 3.0% Impact Medium Low Low Low Medium

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