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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| December 26, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104view:

D Vijiya Rao - Research Analyst vijiya.d@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6134view

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report
Wednesday| December 26, 2012

International Commodities
Market Highlights (% change) Overview
• Indian rupee appreciated 0.2 percent in yesterday. • Markets remained dull due to Christmas vacations. Asia markets are trading on a firm note taking cues from optimism that the new government in power is expected to announce stimulus measures to boost the economy and tackle deflation of the nation US Dollar Index (DX) traded on the flat note due to rise in the risk aversion in the global markets and dull trades due to Christmas holidays. The index gained in the later part of day due to stalemate caused after difference in opinion amongst the law makers over the resolution of the fiscal cliff issue. US equities settled with negative bias on Monday as worries over the fiscal cliff issue of the nation still persists and the deadline for solving the same was less. This caused risk aversion in the global markets and initiated selling pressure amongst the market participants. If the law makers are unable to resolve the debt issue that might cause automatic spending cuts and tax hikes pushing the US economy back into recession. The index touched an intra-day low of 79.45 and closed at 79.75 on Monday. The Indian Rupee appreciated 0.2 percent on Monday taking cues on the back of dollar selling by the exporters along with sustained capital inflows by the FIIs. The rupee also gained tracking the firm performance of the domestic equity markets along with weak Dollar Index. The rupee closed at 54.95 after touching a high of 54.95 on Monday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 19353.50 crores till 24 December 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. th 1,22,625.60 crores till December 24 2012.
th

as on 24 December, 2012

Last INR/$ (Spot)
54.95

Prev day
0.2

w-o-w
-0.2

m-o-m
0.9

y-o-y
-3.9

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3186

0.0

0.2

1.6

1.1

Dollar Index

79.75

0.0

0.3

-0.6

-0.6

NIFTY

5855.8

0.1

0.0

4.1

24.2

SENSEX

19255.1

0.1

0.1

4.0

22.3

DJIA

13139.08

-0.4

-0.7

1.0

6.9

S&P

1426.7

-0.2

-0.2

1.2

12.8

Source: Reuters

Euro also ended on a mixed note on Monday. The currency witnessed strength in the early part of the trade due to weakness in the DX. Worries over the US fiscal cliff issue created risk aversion and strengthened the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.3189 and closed at 1.3186 on Monday.

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Commodities Daily Report
Wednesday| December 26, 2012

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices closed at a flat note. The stalemate situation over the US fiscal cliff issue amongst the US law makers created worries amongst the market participants. Prices gained strength due to weakness in the DX. Volumes remained thin on the back of Christmas vacations. Investors followed a wait and watch stance. Selling pressure was seen in the gold prices towards the end of the session on account of liquidation by the market participants. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $ 1651.64/oz and closed at $ 1656.99 per ounce on Monday. On the MCX, Gold February contract ended 0.1 percent lower on account of appreciation in the Indian rupee. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs. 30,854/10 gms on Monday after touching a low of Rs. 30,810/ 10gms.
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot -Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Feb’13) MCX Gold (Feb’13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last
1657.0

as on 24 December, 2012 Prev day
0.0

WoW
-2.4

MoM
-5.4

YoY
3.2

30550.0

0.9

-1.2

-4.7

10.9

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

$/oz Rs /10 gms

1658.6

0.0

-2.3

-5.3

3.4

30854.0

-0.1

-1.5

-4.4

11.1

Source: Reuters

Silver
Spot silver prices declined 0.3 percent taking cues from trend in the spot gold prices. Worries amongst market participants over the US fiscal cliff issue which remains unresolved created weak sentiments. Bearishness in the base metals pack also exerted downside pressure on the silver prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $ 29.8/oz and closed at $ 29.88 per oz on Monday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices fell 1 percent and closed at Rs. 57,729/kg on Monday and touched an intraday low of Rs. 57,665/ kg. Appreciation in the Indian rupee also pressurized silver prices on MCX.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot -Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Mar’13) MCX Silver (Mar’13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg $/oz $/ oz Rs / kg Last
29.9 58160.0

as on 24 December, 2012 WoW
-7.3 -5.2

Prev day
-0.3 0.6

MoM
-12.4 -8.0

YoY
2.9 10.6

3019.0

1.0

-6.3

-9.6

3.3

2983.9 57729.0

-1.0 -1.0

-7.3 -6.1

-12.5 -9.1

2.7 8.8

Source: Reuters

Outlook
In the intra-day, we expect precious metals to trade with a bearish note due to mixed global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Rise in the risk aversion amongst market participants might be witnessed as the worries over the fiscal cliff issue still persists. In the domestic markets, depreciation in the rupee is expected to cap gains in the precious metals. Technical Chart – Spot Gold

Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Feb’13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Mar’13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg

valid for December 26, 2012 Support 1653/1644 30776/30660 29.68/29.46 57483/57197 Resistance 1665/1673 30954/31058 30.24/30.58 68165/58607
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report
Wednesday| December 26, 2012

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices fell 0.05 percent on Monday. Prices fell on the back of worries over the US fiscal cliff issue which stands stalled. However, weakness in the DX in early part of the trade cushioned fall in the prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $ 88.2/bbl and closed at $ 88.61 per bbl on Monday. On the domestic bourses, prices fell 0.1 percent and closed at Rs. 4,908 /bbl on Monday after touching an intraday low of Rs. 4,877 /bbl in last week. Prices fell due to appreciation in the Indian rupee and traced the international prices. Natural Gas: Nymex natural gas prices declined around 3 percent on account of forecast for warmer winter during the next month which added downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, US fiscal cliff issue also exerted downside pressure on the gas prices. Also, strength in the DX acted as a negative factor for the natural gas prices. Gas prices touched an intra-day low of $3.331/mmbtu and closed at $3.346/mmbtu on Monday. On the domestic front, prices declined by 3.5 percent on the back of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.184.90/mmbtu after touching an intra-day low of Rs.184.50/mmbtu on Monday. Outlook In the intra-day we expect crude oil prices to remain volatile as the US law makers conduct a discussion over the fiscal issue today. Any affirmative statement over resolution of the US fiscal cliff might support an upside in the crude prices. However, strength in the DX might exert downside pressure on the crude prices. In the domestic market depreciation in the rupee is likely to support an upside in the crude oil prices on MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Jan ’13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for December 26, 2012

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Feb’13) ICE Brent Crude (Feb’13) MCX Crude (Jan’12) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last
88.3 110.2 88.6

as on 24 December,2012 WoW
1.8 -0.8 1.6

Prev. day
0.1 -0.6 -0.1

MoM
#N/A -1.4 0.4

YoY
-11.5 -0.1 -11.1

$/bbl
108.8 -0.2 1.1 -2.3 0.8

$/bbl
4908.0 -0.1 2.5 0.0 -7.4

Rs/bbl
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)
Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Dec ’12)

as on 24 December, 2012

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.346 184.9

Prev. day -3.04 -3.50

WoW -0.36 0.16

MoM -14.23 -14.44

YoY -3.29 11.18

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Nymex Crude Oil

Technical Chart – Nymex Natural Gas

Support 88.20/87.80 4884/4860

Resistance 89/89.40 4924/4945

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Commodities Daily Report
Wednesday| December 26, 2012

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a negative note taking cues from the weak global market sentiments along with lingering concerns over the US fiscal cliff issues which caused investors to adopt cautious approach. This caused risk aversion in the global markets. Expectation that the demand might improve in the coming months cushioned fall in the base metals prices. MCX base metals prices traded lower taking cues from bearishness in the international prices along with appreciation in rupee. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Feb’13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum Rs /kg
112.3 -0.8 -2.0 3.1 6.1

as on 24 December, 2012 WoW
-2.9

Last
7818.0

Prev. day
-0.4

MoM
0.5

YoY
2.6

$/tonne

Rs/kg
436.3 -0.6 -2.4 1.2 7.1

$/tonne
2078.8 -0.2 -1.4 5.0 3.0

Copper
Copper prices declined 0.4 percent on Monday. Copper prices remained weak taking cues from the unresolved issue of the US fiscal cliff and continuous rise in the LME inventories. However, positive economic data from the US and China cushioned fall in the prices. LME Copper inventories rose 1.6 percent on Monday and stood at st 3,17,350 tonnes on Monday as against 3,12,400 tonnes on 21 December 2012 Prices of Copper on LME touched an intra-day low of $7,797.5 per tonne and closed at $ 7,818/tonne on Monday. In the domestic markets MCX copper declined 0.6 percent tracing bearishness in the international prices and appreciation in the Indian rupee. In the domestic markets prices of Copper on MCX touched an intra-day low of Rs. 435.1 per kg and closed at Rs. 436.3 per kg on Monday Outlook From the intraday perspective, the base metal is expected to remain dull as the UK markets remain closed today. In the domestic markets, depreciation in the Indian rupee will support an upside in the metal prices on MCX.

(Dec’12) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Dec’12) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Dec’12) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Dec’12) Rs /kg $/tonne Rs /kg $/tonne Rs /kg $/tonne

17315.0

-0.5

-2.3

4.1

-6.8

950.2

-0.8

-1.7

3.3

-3.5

2312.5

0.4

0.2

5.1

14.2

126.5

0.2

0.6

3.7

19.3

2071.5

-0.4

-0.9

5.9

11.6

112.4

-0.6

-0.7

4.4

14.5

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 21st December
317350 5232125 138732 1224625 329150

20th December
312400 5241525 139098 1227275 330550

Actual Change 4,950 -9,400 -366 -2,650 -1,400

(%) Change 1.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – LME Copper Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Feb’13 MCX Zinc Dec’12 MCX Lead Dec’12 MCX Aluminum Dec’12 MCX Nickel Dec’12 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for December 26, 2012 Support 434.40/432.60 111.90/111.40 125.75/125.10 111.55/110.80 942.70/935.30 Resistance 438.70/441.10 113.15/113.90 126.85/127.30 112.95/113.60 958/966
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report
Wednesday| December 26, 2012

International Commodities
Important Events for Today

Indicator Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes German Bank Holiday Italian Bank Holiday UK Bank Holiday S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

Country JPY EUR EUR UK US

Time (IST) 5:20 am All Day All Day All Day 7:30 pm

Actual -

Forecast 3.9%

Previous 3.0%

Impact Medium Low Low Low Medium

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