CITY COLLEGE OF NEW YORK DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

REPORT CE G9800

Future Sustainability of Energy Crop

Denny Halim

December, 2012

Future Sustainability of Energy Crop Abstract

Energy crop has been receiving extensive attention due to its potential to replace fossil fuel to replace fossil fuel. There is an on-going debate about whether energy crop could replace fossil fuel or not, because of processing of crop to ethanol requires energy input thus there is a possibility of negative net energy balance. Result from previous study indicated that by considering co-product produced from ethanol processing plant either from corn or cellulosic plant both could achieve positive net energy balance as much as 60,000 Btu for cellulosic based ethanol and 20,000 to 30,000 Btu for corn based ethanol. Energy crop requires large area to produce substantial amount of ethanol. This report estimated that in order to satisfy 20% of energy demands in 2050, energy crop would require 1,735 million ha of land. One of the benefits of energy crop is less emission of greenhouse gas emission and this study indicated that cellulosic based ethanol could acquire much higher reduction of greenhouse gas emission compared with corn based ethanol in term of life cycle assessment.

Keywords energy crop, biofuel, corn, cellulose, ethanol, greenhouse gas

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Table of Contents
Chapter 1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Chapter 2. 2.1 2.2 Chapter 3. 3.1 3.2 3.2.1 3.3 3.3.1 3.3.2 Chapter 4. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 1 Objectives............................................................................................................................................. 2 Method ................................................................................................................................................. 3 Dissemination Plan............................................................................................................................... 4 Overview of the Global Crop and Energy Demand ......................................................................... 5 Crop Land Projection ........................................................................................................................... 6 Energy Demand Projection .................................................................................................................. 8 Crop as Energy Source ..................................................................................................................... 9 Overview of Crop as Energy Source .................................................................................................... 9 Gross Energy Production from Crop .................................................................................................. 10 Net Energy Production from Crop ................................................................................................. 13 Projection of Energy Crop for 2030 and 2050 ................................................................................... 16 Energy Production.......................................................................................................................... 16 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction ............................................................................................ 17 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 21

Reference ............................................................................................................................................................ 23 Appendix – A: Value-added coproducts from cellulosic ethanol production ...................................................... 26

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List of Tables and Figures
Table 2-1 The Prospects for Plantation in Developing regions (million hectares) ............................................... 7 Table 3-1 Comparison of Energy Yield for Each Crop Type .............................................................................. 10 Table 3-2 Plant Species for Energy Plantation .................................................................................................... 11 Table 3-3 Ethanol Yield based on Crop Yield ..................................................................................................... 11 Table 3-4 Yield Projection and Yield Comparison .............................................................................................. 12 Table 3-5 Inputs per 1000 L of 99.5% Ethanol Produced From Corn vs Switchgrass ........................................ 13 Table 3-6 Energy use and net energy value per gallon without co-product energy credits ................................. 15 Table 3-7 Energy use and net energy value per gallon with co-product energy credits ...................................... 15 Table 3-8 Calculation of Land Requirement ....................................................................................................... 17 Table 3-9 Carbon Emission Comparison ............................................................................................................ 18 Table 3-10 Potential GHG Reduction ................................................................................................................. 18 Table 3-11 Comparison of GHG Emission Between Gasoline, Corn Ethanol, and Biomass Ethanol ................ 19

Figure 2-1 Global Population Projection .............................................................................................................. 5 Figure 2-2 Past and Future Projection of Arable Land and Land under Permanent Crop .................................... 6 Figure 2-3 Trends in per capita availability of arable land between 1700 and 2050 ............................................ 7 Figure 2-4 Global Energy Demand Based on Several Scenario ........................................................................... 8 Figure 3-1 Biochemical Production of Cellulosic Ethanol ................................................................................. 15

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Chapter 1. Introduction
1.1 Overview

Since the middle of 18th Century, people are starting to exploit fossil fuels as main energy source for energy production. The introduction of fossil fuels caused a tremendous change in the world industry which was started from the introduction of steam engine to the development of mechanization in industrial society. Moreover, since the beginning of 19th century, population growth has been phenomenal. The world population has experienced huge growth which is from 2.5 billion in year 1950 to approximately 7 billion of population as of today (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004). The increase of population and development of mechanization in industrial society are causing the demand for energy to grow accordingly. Based on the data from “Key World Energy Statistics” published by International Energy Agency, world’s total final consumption of energy is 4,672 Mtoe in year 1973 to 8,677 Mtoe1 in year 2010. It shows that since almost 30 years ago the energy demand has almost doubled and as of 2010 still 81.1% of the demand is satisfied from the fossil fuels exploitation, such as oil, coal, and natural gas, while the rest of the energy demand is supplied by hydro, nuclear, biofuels, and other sources such as wind, geothermal, and solar. Fossil fuels is non-renewable resources and need million years to be formed, therefore fossil fuels can be categorized as limited resources. The demands for energy keep increasing, but on the other hand the energy sources that can be exploited are very limited. Recently, people are starting to find alternative energy resources to fulfill the increasing demand and also to reduce the dependency of world with the fossil fuels. Furthermore, the burning of fossil fuels contributes in the huge amount of carbon dioxide emission and causing the greenhouse effect which resulting in global warming. Our world has an abundant of renewable energy source, especially from sun and wind, but unfortunately, technologies to efficiently turning the source to electricity is still very limited and the production cost to construct an equipment to generate electricity from sun and wind is expensive.

1

Mtoe : Million tonnes of oil equivalent, 1 Mtoe = 41.87 petajoules, therefore 4,672 Mtoe = 195,616 PJ and 8,677 Mtoe =

363,306 PJ

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Future Sustainability of Energy Crop
Ethanol is a renewable energy resource which can be produced from crop or agricultural feedstock. Extensive research about ethanol as fuels has been conducted in the past and still progressing until now and certainly in the future. Ethanol has the potential to replace the gasoline and used for motor fuels. Currently, most of the ethanol is produced from corn with the world production of 22.4 billion gallons and United States is the largest producer of ethanol with corn as main source with 13.9 billion gallons which is produced from 5 billion gross bushels of corn (equal with 127 million of tonnes) in 2011 (Renewable Fuel Association, 2012). Brazil is the second largest producer of ethanol with sugarcane as main source. In 2008, it was reported that 61% (297 million tonnes) of total produced sugarcane (487 million tonnes) in Brazil was used to produce 5.8 billion gallons of ethanol (StrathKirn Inc., 2009). However, there are still many issues and debates whether ethanol produced from crop could really be sustainable or not. Because of the ethanol needs crop to be used as raw material, means that there are some land needs to be dedicated for the ethanol production thus reducing the potential land could be used for agriculture or producing human food, in other word, there are considerable amount of land use change. Moreover, the energy balance of the ethanol production, especially from corn is still debated due to energy input for the ethanol production is almost equal or larger than the energy output which is the amount of produced ethanol itself.

1.2

Objectives

The objectives of this report are to: a) Discover globally the limit of the crop could be used for energy source, in term of sustainability, land area availability, GHG reduction and human food consumption b) Find out sustainable maximum amount and percentage of energy produced from the crop

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1.3 Method

The research is conducted by researching through secondary data. The estimation of energy production from the dedicated energy crop will be estimated for the future projection for year 2030 and 2050. The basis data for the estimation are: a) Projection of world population; b) Projection of cereal crop production and demand in land area and land use basis; c) Projection of energy production and demand and Greenhouse Gas Emission d) Net energy output from dedicated energy crop per hectare of land for several major type of energy crop.

From those data above, sustainability will be defined as the maximum area of land could be used for dedicated energy crop related with net energy output and reduction of fossil fuels consumptions and greenhouse gas emission reduction. The calculation result from energy crop projection will be utilized to analyze the future condition with the increase of energy crop compared with the condition where there is no increase of energy crop and the energy source is still majorly from fossil fuels. The main parameter in the analysis would be:    Net Energy Production, Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction, and Land Area (Land Use Change).

In conducting the calculation, several assumptions would be needed in order to make simplifier calculation. General assumptions would be as follows: a) There is an increase of efficiency in producing the energy from dedicated energy crops due to improvement in production technology in the future. b) There is an increase of production of dedicated energy crop due to improvement in biotechnology in the future. 3

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c) One crop yield will be used to represent global crop yield for easier in calculation by considering the best maximum yield.

1.4

Dissemination Plan

The result of this project would be in the form of research article. The dissemination activities would be as follows, firstly the result would be submitted and presented to interested audiences in the City College of New York, after receiving the feedback from the interested audiences and the project prove to be successful, the result will be tried to be published on a research journal website or a website that could be accessed freely by public. The end users of this research article would be policy maker in the government or related agency, producer of energy crop, non-government organization which concerned about energy, crop demand, and global warming.

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Chapter 2. Overview of the Global Crop and Energy Demand
Global population projection from US Census Bureau showed that population will keep growing which is shown in the figure below.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2002 Figure 2-1 Global Population Projection It was estimated that in 2030 and 2050, population will increase to 8 billion and 9 billion of population. This means that there would be 1.3 times increase in 2030 and 1.5 times increase compared with current global population which is around 7 billion of population.

The increase of population will lead to considerable impact of higher food and energy demand. Currently, people are still depending on the unrenewable energy sources which are very limited and would gradually become scarce in the future. It is the same as food production, in order to produce food, wide area of land is needed to fulfill food demands which details of required land could be seen on the next chapter.

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2.1 Crop Land Projection

Population growth will lead to the change of land use, such as residential, commercial, and industrial development, therefore the potential to expand crop land would be limited and need to compete with the development in other aspects. Other important aspect in expanding crop land would be water. Availability of water supplies could limit the increase of crop land. At present, agriculture accounts for over 70% of water use globally, but both the absolute amount of water available for agriculture and its share are expected to decline to 40% by 2050 (OECD/FAO, 2012).

World Mha 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Developing countries

Developed countries

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Source: OECD/FAO, 2012 Figure 2-2 Past and Future Projection of Arable Land and Land under Permanent Crop

Given commodity prices, technology and competing demands, the feasible scope for area expansion is limited. FAO predicts that from the 2005-07 base period to 2050 only 10% of the global growth in crop production (21%) in developing countries) is expected to come from land expansion, with the remainder coming from higher yields and increased cropping intensity. Arable land is projected to expand by 69 Mha (less than 5%) with an expansion of about 107 Mha in developing countries being offset by a decline of 38 Mha in developed countries (Figure 2-2). Almost all of the land expansion in developing countries is projected to occur in subSaharan Africa and Latin America (OECD/FAO, 2012).

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From figure 2-1 and 2-2 above, availability of arable land per capita for 2012, 2030 and 2050 could be estimated which are 0.22, 0.19, and 0.18 ha/capita. Forecast about availability of arable land per capita also could be seen on the Figure 2-3.

Source: (Land Commodities Asset Management AG, 2009) Figure 2-3 Trends in per capita availability of arable land between 1700 and 2050

As shown on the figure, per capita availability of arable land will keep declining due to exponential population growth and limited land available for crop. In 2050, it was expected that there would be 18% decline from 2012 of 0.22 to 0.18 ha/capita.

Table 2-1 The Prospects for Plantation in Developing regions (million hectares)
Cropland measures Present cropland Potential (1992) cropland Latin America 179.2 889.6 Africa 178.8 752.7 Asia (ex. China) 348.3 412.5 Total 706.3 2054.9 Source: (Hislop & Hall, 1996) Based on the report “Biomass Resources for Gasification Power Plant” from Hislop & Hall in 1996, there 7

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would be 2054.9 million ha of potential cropland in developing regions. Based on the projection of arable land under permanent crop from OECD/FAC , cropland required in developing country in 2025, 2030, and 2050 are 959 million ha, 975 million ha, and 1,036 million ha, respectively which means that there would be excess of potential cropland in 2050 of 1,018.9 million ha.

2.2

Energy Demand Projection

In 2010, global primary energy consumption was 523 EJ (IEA, 2012). This primary energy consumption mostly satisfied with fossil fuel, such as oil (32.4 %), coal (27.3 %), and natural gas (21.4 %), thus it made up 81.1% of global primary energy consumption. OPEC estimated 2010 global gasoline consumption which was 21 million barrel/day (321.9 billion gal/year) and also projected 2035 global gasoline consumption which would be 27 million barrel/day (413.9 billion gal/year). It means that in 2035, gasoline will experience 29% increase of demand.

Note: Top three lines are in primary energy, lower six lines in final energy.

Source: (WWF, 2011) Figure 2-4 Global Energy Demand Based on Several Scenario WWF compiled the projection of energy demand from several scenarios. For this paper, scenario from shell blueprint will be selected and the estimation will consider primary energy demand. It was projected that in 2030 and 2050, primary energy demand will become ±650 EJ and ±780 EJ.

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Chapter 3. Crop as Energy Source
3.1 Overview of Crop as Energy Source

Since around 1980s, human started to search alternative energy sources that could be sustained for a long period of time or in other words, energy sources that could be renewed in short period of time. Since the start of ethanol production, corn was already become major choice for production of ethanol and many researches were done to improve corn to ethanol production. Recently, research in crop as energy field is starting to shift out to cellulose/biomass base ethanol. Corn based ethanol is defined as first generation ethanol while cellulose based ethanol is defined as second generation ethanol. The reason for the change to cellulose base ethanol was due to corn ethanol is not sustainable because of its low energy return on energy invested, moreover greenhouse gas emissions of corn ethanol are reported to be marginal at best (Rajagopal, Sextion, RolandHolst, & Zilberman, 2007). Corn ethanol is, therefore, ineffectual from a climate change perspective and also unsustainable from an energy efficiency perspective.

U. S. Departments of Energy made a research project to screen and evaluate more than 100 woody species and 35 herbaceous species. From the research, 22 hardwood species identified as high potential for wood energy feedstock plantations, poplars and cottonwoods (genus Populus) and willow were selected as model for development. As for herbaceous crops, switchgrass was selected as model (Kszos, et al., 2000). Those species are can be used to produce cellulose based ethanol.

Cellulose is the most common organic compound on Earth. About 33 percent of all plant matter is cellulose (e.g., the cellulose content of cotton is 90 percent and that of wood is 50 percent). Cellulose is an organic compound with the formula (C6H10O5)n, a polysaccharide consisting of a linear chain of several hundred to over ten thousand linked D-glucose units. Cellulose is the structural component of the primary cell wall of green plants, many forms of algae, and oomycetes. The higher potential yield of cellulose is due to the fact that it is an easier path to sugar because of the high glucose content. While first generation ethanol technology 9

Future Sustainability of Energy Crop
effectively converts the starch portion of grain to sugar and then the sugar to ethanol, cellulose is a more direct route and also contains both 5- and 6-carbon sugars (Haigwood & Durante, 2009).

3.2

Gross Energy Production from Crop

In 2007, Europe already utilize 50,000 – 60,000 ha (mainly willow, reed canary grass, miscanthus, and poplar) of land for solid biomass energy crops, and about 2.5 million ha (mostly rape and cereals such as corn) of land are utilized for transportation biofuels (Jyvaskyla Innovation Oy & MTT Agrifood Research Finland, 2009). The quantity of dry matter produced by a biomass species per unit area of production, determines the potential energy production capacity, or yield, of the available land area. Production is measured in dry matter ton (dmt)/ha and combined with the HHV of the biomass, the energy yield of the cultivated crop can be calculated.

Table 3-1 Comparison of Energy Yield for Each Crop Type
Crop Wheat Poplar SRC willow Switchgrass Miscanthus Corn grain Corn stover Reed Canary Grass (RCG)
1) 2)

Crop Yield (dmt/ha/year) 7 grain/7 straw (14 total) 10-15 10-15 8 12-30 6-8
1)

HHV (MJ/kg dry) 12.3 17.3 18.7 17.4 18.5 16
2)

Energy yield (GJ/ha) 123 173 - 259 187 - 280 139 222 - 555 96 - 128 5.9 - 76.2 64.8 - 113.4

Reference

Mckendry, 2002

0.34 - 4.38 4-7

17.4 16.2

Shapouri, Duffield, Wang, 2002 Essom Co., LTD Jyvaskyla Innovaation Oy, 2009

Corn grain converted from Bu/acre to ton/ha Source: (Patzek, 2005)

As shown on the table above, corn based material has half energy yield potential compared with cellulose based material, such as switchgrass, miscanthus, poplar, and willow. Overall, cellulose crop have more yield compared with cereal crop (corn). Currently, there is an intensive research and development to increase biomass yields using hybrid plants. It was reported that hybrid poplar species could produce yields of 43 dmt/ha/year in US Pacific NW (McKendry, 2001). Following table shows available plant species that potentially could produce high yield for energy plantation. 10

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Table 3-2 Plant Species for Energy Plantation
High dmt/ha Woody species Herbaceous Poplar Sweet sorghum Willow Sugar cane Eucalyptus Miscanthus Switchgrass Cord grasses Source: (McKendry, 2001) Table 3-1 above shows energy yield based on higher heating value (HHV) which is the maximum amount of energy potentially recoverable from a given biomass source. The actual amount of energy recovered will vary with the conversion technology, as will the form of that energy i.e. combustible gas, oil, steam, etc. As for the current technologies to convert crop to fuel are still limited and operated with certain efficiency. Ethanol production based on crop yield could be seen on the following table. Moderate dmt/ha (marginal/degraded land) Alder Black locust Birch Castanea saturia Plantanus Nicotania

Crop

Table 3-3 Ethanol Yield based on Crop Yield conversion Ethanol yield Yield (tons/ha) efficiency (liter/hectare) (liter/tons)

Gasoline equivalent (liter/hectare) 1340 1608 638 3049

8 2501) 2000 Switchgrass 2) 6 400 2400 Corn 2) 2) 2) 2.8 340 952 Wheat 2) 2) 2) 65 70 4550 Sugar cane 1) Source: (Pimentel & Patzek, 2005) 2) Source: (Rajagopal, Sextion, Roland-Holst, & Zilberman, 2007)

Switchgrass conversion efficiency was only 250 liter/tons compared with corn and wheat ethanol conversion efficiency which was 400 liter/tons. Based on Table 3-1, switchgrass potential energy yield was 139 GJ/ha, therefore if 1 liter of ethanol = 34,353.56 kJ, energy available from switchgrass ethanol conversion = 69 GJ/ha. This means that the efficiency to convert switchgrass to ethanol from its energy yield potential was only 50 %, while efficiency of corn energy potential was 85% (energy available from corn ethanol conversion 82 GJ/ha and corn potential energy yield = 96 GJ/ha). Technology in converting crop to energy still the limiting factor which is shown that currently only 50% of switchgrass energy potential could be utilized. One of the problem in processing switchgrass is the method to process cellulosic based material to ethanol, which is requiring 11

Future Sustainability of Energy Crop
more steps, such as hydrolysis compared with starch and sugar processing.

Table 3-3 also shows that sugar cane has good potential because of high yield but with low conversion efficiency which only produced as much as 70 liter/tons. One of the major problems in sugarcane is quick to decay. Sugargane begins to decay as soon as it is harvested and must be processed within a day or so, leading to logistical problems for transport and handling with no effective storage (StrathKirn Inc., 2009).

Table 3-4 Yield Projection and Yield Comparison
Unit Corn ethanol plant yield Dry milling gal/bu (L/ton) Wet milling gal/bu (L/ton) Cellulosic ethanol plant yield woody biomass gal/dry ton (L/dry ton) Herbaceous biomass gal/dry ton (L/dry ton) 1) these cases were not evaluated Source: (Wang, Saricks, & Santini, 1999) Ethanol Yield Projection 2000 2005 2.6 (387) 2.5 (373) NA1) NA1) 2.7 (402) 2.6 (387) 76 (288) 80 (303) 2010 NA1) NA1) 98 (371) 103 (390)

At cellulosic ethanol plants, the unfermentable biomass components, primarily lignin, can be used to generate steam (needed in ethanol plants) and electricity in cogeneration systems. The estimation of 76 gal/dry ton ethanol yield in Table 3-4 was a simulation conducted by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for ethanol plants which was constructed and started to operate in 2005. Such ethanol plants consume 2,719 Btu of diesel fuel and generate 1.73 kWh of electricity per gallon of ethanol produced. Simulation also was conducted for cellulosic ethanol which will be operating in 2010, and it was projected to yield 98 gal/dry ton of woody biomass. The plants will consume 2,719 Btu of diesel fuel and generate 0.56 kWh of electricity per gallon of ethanol produced (Wang, Saricks, & Santini, 1999). Herbaceous biomass simulation shows slightly higher yield compared with woody biomass. In 2007, 50,000 to 60,000 ha of land in Europe are covered with such herbaceous and woody species which are used to produce ethanol. The largest areas are found in the UK (mainly miscanthus and willow), Sweden (willow, reed canary grass), Finland (reed canary grass), Germany (miscanthus, poplar) (Jyvaskyla Innovation Oy & MTT Agrifood Research Finland, 2009). 12

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3.2.1

Net Energy Production from Crop

In calculating net energy produced from energy crop, the energy input must be estimated in order to see whether energy results resulted in negative or positive net energy output. Table 3-5 below shows a research that had been done by Pimentel & Patzek in 2005, in order to study the net energy production.

Table 3-5 Inputs per 1000 L of 99.5% Ethanol Produced From Corn vs Switchgrass
Inputs Quantity Corn Grain 2690 kg Corn Transport 2690 kg Water 40000 L Stainless steel 3 kg Steel 4 kg Cement 8 kg Steam 2546000 kcal Electricity 392 kWh 95% ethanol to 99.5% 9 kcal/L Sewage effluent 20 kg (BOD) Total Source: (Pimentel & Patzek, 2005) kcal x 1000 2,522 322 90 12 12 8 2,546 1,011 9 69 6,597
Input Quantity Switchgrass 2500 kg Transport, switchgrass 2500 kg Water 125000 kg Stainless steel 3 kg Steel 4 kg Cement 8 kg Grind switchgrass 2500 kg Sulfuric acid 118 kg Steam production 8.1 tons Electricity 330 kWh Ethanol converstion to 99.5% 9 kcal/L Sewage effluent 20 kg (BOD) Total kcal x 1000 694 300 70 45 46 15 100 0 4,404 1,703 9 69 7,455

Based on a gallon of ethanol has energy value of 84,100 BTU, thus a liter of ethanol has an energy value of 5,595 kcal. If compared with the energy input both energy crop from corn and switchgrass, both crops produces negative net energy output. Output/input ratio for corn and switchgrass were 0.85 and 0.75 respectively, or in term of percentage were -18% (1,002 kcal energy loss) and -33% (1,860 kcal energy loss) from the output energy value. The largest energy input for corn was mostly used to produce corn grain and steam for fermentation/distillation process in producing ethanol. Switchgrass has low energy input in producing switchgrass itself which means that growing switchgrass is more environmental friendly compared with corn grain, but switchgrass requires more energy for steam production and electricity. In Pimentel & Patzek analysis, they did not include distribution energy to transport the ethanol.

In United States, 13.9 billion gallons of ethanol are being produced per year (Renewable Fuel Association, 2012) which is equivalent to 9.3 billion gallons of gasoline. In 2011, United States consumed about 134 billion 13

Future Sustainability of Energy Crop
gallons (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2012), thus ethanol only could satisfy 7% of total United States gasoline consumption. 13.9 billion gallons of ethanol which means that 15.7 million ha of land was dedicated to grow corn for ethanol.

In the report from Pimentel & Patzek, the calculation of net energy use was purely conducted by estimating energy input and energy output from ethanol without considering co-product produced from ethanol production. Another research which was conducted by Wang, Saricks, & Santini in 1999, ethanol production from cellulosic plant and corn provide net energy balance where corn ethanol still has 20,000 – 25,000 Btu per gallon (21.1 – 26.4 MJ) of net energy and cellulosic ethanol has over 60,000 Btu per gallon (63.3 MJ) of net energy. Positive net energy balance in corn ethanol is due to yield of co-product in corn ethanol process. There are two types of corn processing to ethanol with either dry milling or wet milling process. Dry milling produce co-product: distiller grain (DGS), while wet milling produce co-product: corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed, and corn oil. The large positive net energy balance for cellulosic ethanol is largely attributable to two factors: the fact that little fossil energy is used in biomass farming and cellulosic ethanol conversion and, to a lesser extent, to the assumption that the extra electricity generated in cellulosic ethanol plants will be exported into the electric grid to displace electric generation in electric power plants (Wang, Saricks, & Santini, 1999). Wang, Saricks, & Santini assumed that to produce per gallon of ethanol from switchgrass requires 2,719 Btu of diesel fuel and for growing switchgrass requires 217,230 Btu per dry ton. They also used assumption of 76 gallon of ethanol could be produced for per dry ton of biomass. Therefore, the energy input would only be around 6,000 Btu per gallon which is very small compared with the assumption used by Pimentel and Patzek.

List of benefits for cellulosic ethanol production could be seen on the Appendix – A (Patton, NA).

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Source: (Patton, NA)

Figure 3-1 Biochemical Production of Cellulosic Ethanol
Shapouri and McAloon in 2001, provide a study result of net energy balance by considering with and without co-product. The result could be seen on the table below. Table 3-6 Energy use and net energy value per gallon without co-product energy credits
Milling process Weighted average Dry Wet Btu per gallon Corn production 18,875 18,551 18,713 Corn transport 2,138 2,101 2,120 Ethanol conversion 47,116 52,349 49,733 Ethanol distribution 1,487 1,487 1,487 Total energy used 69,616 74,488 72,052 Net energy value 6,714 1,842 4,278 Energy ratio 1.1 1.02 1.06 Production process

Table 3-7 Energy use and net energy value per gallon with co-product energy credits
Milling process Weighted average Dry Wet Btu per gallon Corn production 12,457 12,244 12,350 Corn transport 1,411 1,387 1,399 Ethanol conversion 27,799 33,503 30,586 Ethanol distribution 1,467 1,467 1,467 Total energy used 43,134 48,601 45,802 Net energy value 33,196 27,729 30,528 Energy ratio 1.77 1.57 1.67 Production process

Source: (Shapouri & McAloon, 2001) The net energy balance estimate for corn ethanol produced from wet-milling is 27,729 Btu per gallon, the net energy balance estimate for dry-milling is 33,196 Btu per gallon, and the weighted average is 30,528 Btu per gallon. The energy ratio is 1.57 and 1.77 for wet- and dry-milling, respectively, and the weighted average energy ratio is 1.67.

In United States, corn ethanol production produced not only 13.9 billion gallons of ethanol, but also 39 million metric tons of livestock feed. More specifically, ethanol producers provided 35.7 million metric tons of distillers grains, 2.9 million tons of corn gluten feed, and 0.6 million tons of corn gluten meal. For perspective, that is considerably more feed production than the amount of grain used at all cattle feedlots across the country. 15

Future Sustainability of Energy Crop
Interestingly, advances in ethanol production technologies are yielding additional co-products as well. According to RFA analysis, 40% of the nation’s ethanol bio refineries are capturing corn oil during the ethanol production process and selling that oil into the feed market, as well as biodiesel and other chemical markets. All told, U.S. ethanol producers supplied an estimated 1.5 billion pounds of corn oil in 2011 (Renewable Fuel Association, 2012). Importantly, a recent USDA report concluded that one metric ton of distillers grains displaced 1.2 metric tons of the traditional corn and soybean livestock feed ration. One bushel of corn yields 2.8 gallons of ethanol and 17.5 pounds of livestock feed in a dry mill. Dry mill plants extracting corn oil also produce about 0.5 pounds of corn oil per bushel, while wet mills produce 1.5 pounds of corn oil per bushel. Fully one-third of every bushel of corn is returned to livestock feed and other markets (Renewable Fuel Association, 2012).

3.3 3.3.1

Projection of Energy Crop for 2030 and 2050 Energy Production

In order to see the impact of energy crop on the land use, total land required to satisfy certain amount of energy demand is required. It will be assumed that 20% of energy demand will be satisfied with energy crop in 2012, 2030, and 2050. Calculation will be used by using data for cellulosic ethanol (switchgrass), yield in 2030 and 2050 will be assumed to increase 20% of current yield and ethanol yield due to projection from Table 3-4, it will be assumed that ethanol yield would be 400 L/dry ton.

For the first calculation, it will be conducted based on gross energy output without considering net energy balance. Several determined parameter which is needed to make the estimation would be as follows: a) Target of energy production = 20% of energy demand

b) Energy demand in 2012, 2030, and 2050 = 523 EJ, 650 EJ, and 780 EJ c) Energy crop ethanol yield d) Crop yield (20% increase) e) 1 L of ethanol = 400 L/dry ton = 8 dry ton/ha (9.6 dry ton/ha) = 23,410 kJ 16

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Based on the available data above we could obtain results as follows:

Table 3-8 Calculation of Land Requirement 2012 2030 20% of energy demand (EJ) 104.6 130 Ethanol Required (billion L) 4,468 5,553 Amount of Crop required (billion ton) 11 14 Land required to grow crop (million ha) 1,396 1,446

2050 156 6,664 17 1,735

Based on the chapter 2.1, the excess available land in developing country in 2050 would be only 1,016 million ha and if it assumed that developed country only be able to use 20% of its arable land (121 million ha) for energy crop, thus totally 1,137 million ha would be available for energy crop plantation in 2050. As shown on table 3-8, 598 million ha of land are still needed in order to satisfy 20% of global energy demand. If 1,137 million ha are fully utilized in 2050, it can only satisfy 102 EJ of energy demand, close with 2012 20% energy demand. With 1,137 million ha of land, it could produce 11 billion ton of crop and 4,366 billion liters of ethanol and it only could satisfy 13% of energy demand. If net energy balance is considered, switchgrass has net energy balance of 21,100 kJ per 1 L of ethanol produced, therefore based on net energy balance; 1,137 million ha of energy crop essentially only could produce 91.9 EJ or satisfy 11.8% of 2050 energy demand.

3.3.2

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction

The consumption of the fossil fuels release significant quantities of pollutants to the atmosphere. Furthermore, carbon dioxide emissions released from burning these fossil fuels contribute to global warming and are a serious concern. Another environmental benefit from the use of energy crops versus fossil fuels for energy production is a decrease in emissions. Unlike fossil fuels, plants grown for energy crops absorb the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released during their combustion/use. Therefore, by using biomass for energy generation there is no net CO2 generated because the amount emitted in its use has been previously absorbed when the plant was growing. Substitution of fossil fuel with biomass could help to reduce the CO2 emission. If approximately 35 million acres were used to grow energy crops and replace the use of coal for electric 17

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generation, it would eliminate 6% of annual CO2 emissions in the United States. If a mix of 10% willow was co-fired with 90% coal, NOx and SO2 emissions would be reduced by 10% (Launder, 2002)

Table 3-9 Carbon Emission Comparison
Carbon Emission* Carbon Reduction (gram/kWh) Poplar 3961 95.54% Switchgrass 6841 92.29% Natural Gas 49618 44.10% Petroleum 80260 9.57% Coal 88758 *Carbon emissions includes production, transportation, and conversion processes Source: (Launder, 2002) Energy Source

It was reported that corn based ethanol provide has little marginal value in GHG emission as shown on Table Table 3-10 which was estimated by using life cycle assessment technique. The study was done by researching several studies for GHG mitigation potentials of different feedstocks, conversion, process technologies, and handling of co-product (Carrquiry, Du, & Timilsina, 2010).

Table 3-10 Potential GHG Reduction
Biofuel Sugarcane ethanol Wheat ethanol Emission Reduction (%) 65 - 105 -5 – 901)

Corn ethanol -20 – 55 Sugarbeet ethanol 30 – 60 Lignocellulose ethanol 45 – 1122) 1) Negative number mean increases in GHG emissions 2) Include forest residues, energy crops (such as short tree rotations (e.g., poplar), and (switchgrass), and crop residues (e.g., corn stover)

Source: (Carrquiry, Du, & Timilsina, 2010)

Most studies coincide in that most biofuel pathways reduce emissions of GHG when compared to the petroleum energy they displace, especially when land use changes are not included in the analysis. The secondgeneration biofuels appear to have higher potentials of GHG mitigation as compared to the first-generation biofuels. The inclusion of land use change (both direct and indirect) may reduce some or all GHG emission gains, or even result in net emission increases. Note however that the indirect GHG emissions through land use change would be smaller in the case of second-generation biofuels as compared to that of first-generation 18

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biofuels. Massive expansion of cropland by cutting down forests could potentially cause significant increase in greenhouse gases emission.

Table 3-11 Comparison of GHG Emission Between Gasoline, Corn Ethanol, and Biomass Ethanol
Making Feedstock Gasoline Corn Ethanol Corn Ethanol plus land use change Biomass ethanol Biomass ethanol plus land use change 4 24 24 10 10 Refining Fuel 15 40 40 9 9 Vehicle Operation (Burning Fuel) 72 71 71 71 71 Net Land Use Effects Greet Feedstock Uptake Credit 0 -62 -62 -62 -62 111 104 Land Use Change Total GHG 92 74 177 27 138 Change in net GHG vs Gasoline -20% 93% -70% 50%

Source: (Searchinger, et al., 2008)

Searchinger, et al. in their report uses the term "land use change” to refer to all of the carbon storage and ongoing sequestration that is foregone by devoting land to the production of biofuels. Land, of course, already exists and tends to store and sequester carbon whether devoted to biofuels or not. Using land to produce a biofuel feedstock foregoes some of that storage and ongoing sequestration, which in effect causes offsetting emissions in a variety of ways. Their report considers three following factors that could happen when a land is used for energy crop: a) A forest or grassland can be directly converted to grow a biofuel such as corn, resulting in the direct loss of the carbon in the standing trees and grasses and a fair chunk of the carbon after plowing up the soils. Soils store major quantities of carbon in forests and grasslands (Searchinger, et al., 2008). b) Second, the same land, if not devoted to biofuels, could continue to sequester carbon. For example, a young, growing forest will continue to sequester carbon as the forest grows for many years. This ongoing sequestration is lost if the land is converted to a biofuel for ethanol. (Although land converted to grow the biofuel, such as corn, will continue to sequester carbon, the typical biofuel analysis already takes account of that carbon.)

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c) Third, both of these effects can occur indirectly. For example, if corn in the United States is diverted to ethanol production, grasslands or forest could be converted anywhere in the world to replace the corn. Complicating this analysis, these indirect effects can pass through many steps. For example, soybean land in the U.S. can be planted in corn, and forest or grassland plowed up in Brazil to replace the soybeans. One of the options in order to reduce the effect of greenhouse gas emission from cutting down forest for energy crop is by utilization of abandoned agriculture lands. Abandoned agriculture land is an agriculture land that has been abandoned because of the soil degradation from extensive use and/or relocation of agriculture land. Previous study estimated that there are 474 to 579 million ha of abandoned agriculture land (Campbell, Lobell, Genova, & Field, 2008).

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Chapter 4. Conclusion
Ethanol produced from energy crop might hold a promising future because of its energy value and more environmentally friendly compared with fossil fuels. From this study, several points in energy crop have been obtained:  Ethanol from corn and cellulosic ethanol could give negative net energy balance (-18% and -33% for corn and switchgrass) if the estimation is done by only considering energy input and energy output. Corn to ethanol processing produces co-product such as DGS for dry milling and corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed, and corn oil for wet milling. This co-product could overturn net energy balance for corn which is 20,000 – 30,000 Btu (21.1 - 31.67 MJ) per gallon of positive net energy balance. Cellulosic ethanol produce co-product in the form of heat and electricity from co-generation in cellulosic ethanol processing plant. If this co-product is considered, positive net energy balance of cellulosic based ethanol could reach 60,000 Btu (63.3 MJ) per gallon.  Required crop area to satisfy 20% of energy demand in 2012, 2030, and 2050 would be 1,396, 1,446, and 1,735 million ha respectively. Those crop areas could achieve crop yield of 11, 14, and 17 billion dry ton.  Based on the estimation of energy production, energy crop could only satisfy 11.8% of primary energy demand in 2050 by considering the available land constraint of 1,137 million ha. 11.8% is estimated with net energy balance. For the estimation without net energy balance, energy crop could satisfy 13% of energy demand in 2050.  Cellulosic based ethanol could help to reduce much more greenhouse gas emission compared with corn ethanol and if greenhouse gas emission due to land use change is not considered. Corn based ethanol has a relatively low margin and could lead to increase greenhouse gas emission which is -20% to 55%. While cellulosic based ethanol could reduce greenhouse gas emission: 45% to 112%.  In term of sustainability point of view, growing energy crop might give beneficial use considering net energy balance of energy crop with its co-product in ethanol production. Its co-product could be used 21

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to feed livestock, thus replacing some amounts of crop and grain that is originally used to feed livestock. Massive expansion of energy crop may increase greenhouse gas emission, especially the expansion involves cutting down of forests. Abandoned agriculture land could become one of the best options for growing sustainable energy crop due to no forest are needed to be cut down.

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Reference
Campbell, E., Lobell, D., Genova, R., & Field, C. (2008). The Global Potential of Bioenergy on Abandoned Agriculture Lands. Environmental Science & Technology. Carrquiry, M. A., Du, X., & Timilsina, G. R. (2010). Second-Generation Biofuels. World Bank - Environment and Energy Team, Development Research Group. ESSOM Co. LTD. (NA). Heating values of hydrogen and fuels. Retrieved September 20, 2012, from ESSOM Co. LTD.: http://www.essom.com Haigwood, B., & Durante, D. (2009). Converting Cellulose Into Ethanol and Other Biofuels. Ethanol Across America. Hislop, D., & Hall, D. O. (1996). Biomass Resourcess for Gasification Power Plant. Energy for Sustainable Development Ltd - Kings College, University of London. IEA. (2012). Key World Energy Statistics. Rue de la Federation: International Energy Agency. Jyvaskyla Innovation Oy & MTT Agrifood Research Finland. (2009). Energy from field energy crops handboook for energy producerss. Jyvaskyla: Jvaskyla Innovation Oy. Kszos, L. A., Downing, M. E., Wright, L. L., Cushman, J. H., McLaughlin, S. B., Tolbert, V. R., et al. (2000). Bioenergy Feedstock Development Program Status Report. Oak Ridge: Environmental Sciences Division Publication. Land Commodities Asset Management AG. (2009). The Land Commodities Global Agriculture & Farmland Investment Report 2009. Baar: Land Commodities Asset Management AG. Launder, K. (2002). Energy Crops and Their Potential Development in Michigan. Michigan Department of Consumer and Industry Services. McKendry, P. (2001). Energy Production from biomass (part 1): overview of biomass. Biosource Technology (83), 37-46. OECD/FAO. (2012). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012. OECD Publishing. Patton, J. (NA). Value-added Coproducts from the Production of Cellulosic Ethanol. CGREC. 23

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Patzek, T. W. (2005). Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol. Critical revews in Plant Sciences, 23(6), 519-567. Pimentel, D., & Patzek, T. W. (2005). Ethanol Production Using Corn, Switchgrass, and Wood; Biodiesel Production Using Soybean and Sunflower. Natural Resources Research Vol. 14 (1), 65-76. Rajagopal, D., Sextion, S. E., Roland-Holst, D., & Zilberman, D. (2007). Challenge of biofuel: filling the tank without emptying the stomach? Environ. Res. Lett (2), 1-9. Renewable Fuel Association. (2012). Accelerating Industry Innovation. Washington, DC: Renewable Fuels Association. RFA. (2012). Accelerating Industry Innovation - 2012 Ethanol Industry Outlook. Washington, DC: Renewable Fuels Association. Rosegrant, M., Paisner, M., Meijer, S., & Witcover, J. (2001). Global Food Projection to 2020. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., et al. (2008). Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change. Science mag. Vol. 314, 1238-1240. Shapouri, H., & McAloon, A. (2001). The 2001 Net Energy Balance of Corn-Ethanol. USDA. Shapouri, H., Duffield, J., & Michael, W. (2002). The Energy Balance of Corn ethanol: An Update. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture. StrathKirn Inc. (2009). Sugarcane as a Feedstock for Biofuels. Chesterfield: National Corn Growers Association. StrathKirn Inc. (2009). Sugarcane as a Feedstock for Biofuels. Chesterfield: NCGA. Trabish, H. K. (2011). The Cost Challenge for Biofuels. Retrieved November 17, 2012, from NewEnergyNews: http://nenmore.blogspot.com/2011_11_01_archive.html U.S. Census Bureau. (2004). Global Population Profile: 2002. Retrieved September 25, 2012, from U.S. Department of Commerce: http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2012). How much gasoline does the United States consumed? Retrieved November 19, 2012, from U.S. Energy Information Administration: 24

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http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=23&t=10 Wang, M., Saricks, C., & Santini, D. (1999). Effects of Fuel Ethanol Use on Fuel-Cycle Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Illinois: Argonne National Laboratory. WWF. (2011). The Energy Report 100% Renewable Energy by 2050. WWF International.

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Appendix – A: Value-added coproducts from cellulosic ethanol production

Source: (Patton, NA)

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