You are on page 1of 46

28th December 2012

th

2012
December2011
728th October

Volume
Volume 5238

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 1

Focus
Colombo Stock Exchange

Weekly Review by Asia Wealth Management Research

IN THIS ISSUE;

ASI Daily Closing


(ASI)

The bourse emerges out of the holiday mood.....


The Colombo bourse soared during the week with
the market registering 1.6% WoW..........
Pg 02

Focu
Focu
5450

1500

5400

1000

5350

500

5300
5250

Turnover (RHS)

Weekly overview of commodity trading

Pg 26

Commodity Prices

ASI closing ( LHS)

Market Statistics

All Share Index


Milanka Price Index
S&P SL20 Index
Banking & Finance
Food & Beverage
Diversified
Hotels & Travels
Telecommunication
Manufacturing
Market Capitalisation (LKR bn)
(USD bn)
Turnover (LKR mn)
(USD mn)
Average Daily Turnover (LKR mn)
Volume (mn shares)
Foreign Purchases (LKR mn)
Foreign Sales(LKR mn)

28-Dec
5,607.13
5,120.17
3,068.99
12,174.21
15,675.08
1,821.07
3,554.30
163.48
2,606.04
2,153.90
16.95
1,274.30
10.03
424.80
48.00
811.20
69.20

21-Dec
5,516.49
5,044.58
3,038.78
12,051.47
15,397.61
1,796.79
3,493.68
161.37
2,576.39
2,122.70
16.13
5,356.00
40.70
1,071.20
130.30
2,238.40
1,047.60

% Chg.
1.6
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.8
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.5
5.1
-76.2
-75.4
-60.3
-63.2
-63.8
-93.4

W eekly R eview by Asia Wealth Manag

Pg 27

2013 Outlook towards a rebound..

7- 10- 11- 12- 13- 14- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 24- 26- 28Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec

Analysis of Various Warrants Listed on CSE


th

2000

5500

Table below shows the members who have


qualified to be a part of Asia Wealth Researchs Billion Rupee
Club.
Pg 25

Colombo Stock Exch

The phenomenal performance of the Colombo


bourse witnessed in the immediate post war environment had
garnered...............
Pg29

7th October 2011

2500

5550

Pg 03

7 October 2011

Volume 38

5600

Colombo Bourse Billion Ruppee Club

Volume 38

3000

Colombo Stock Exch

2012- At a Glance....

Major Price Movements

Company

(LKR mn)

5650

Large Trades

Price

+/-LKR

+/- %

0.5

0.1

25.0

Company
Browns Investments

2,600.0

400

18.2

Pc House

Lake House Printers & Publishers

105.0

15

16.7

John Keells Holdings

3,570,735

Singalanka Standard Chemicals

102.6

14.5

16.5

Free Lanka Capital Holdings

2,730,267

Ceylon Guardian Investment

184.0

24

15.0

John Keells Hotels

1,507,611

Seylan Merchant Bank (NV)


Kalamazoo Systems

Bimputh Lanka Investments


Sathosa Motors
Bogawantalawa Tea Estates
Capital Development & Investment Company

Swisstek (Ceylon)

Volume
19,905,776

Weekly Review by Asia Wealth


Manag
3,625,483

19.1

-1.4

-6.8

Mullers & Phipps

986,196

191.0

-14.1

-6.9

Citrus Leisure ( W 0019)

871,400

12.1

-0.9

-6.9

Panasian Power

814,727

436.2

-33.8

-7.2

Nation Lanka Finance

737,307

13.1

-1.1

-7.7

Central Investment & Finance

691,582

Colombo Stoc

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 2

Features
The bourse emerges out of the holiday mood.....
The Colombo bourse soared during the week with the market registering 1.6% WoW growth to close positive, with
majority of the counters edging up. The All Share Index gained 90.6 points WoW to close at 5,607.13 points (1.6%), whilst
the Milanka Price Index rose 75.6 points WoW to close at 5,120.17 points (1.5%). Indices benefited mainly on the back of
the gains made by Ceylon Tobacco Company (2.5% WoW), Sri Lanka Telecom (4.2% WoW), Nestle Lanka (3.4% WoW),
Bukit Darah (2.9% WoW) and Ceylon Guardian Investment Trust (15.0% WoW).
Sri Lankan stocks started the week at a slower pace owing to the holiday atmosphere prevailing in the bourse. However,
amid the thin holiday trades, ASI managed to end in the green territory during all three trading days. A similar positive
momentum was witnessed in most of the world exchanges during the week. European and US shares edged up on
account of fresh hopes that a resolution would be formulated on time to avoid the US Fiscal Cliff. Japans Nikkei index
reached a 21 month high on Friday as the Yen weakened, helping the countrys powerhouse export sector. Japans newly
elected Prime Minister called for an aggressive monetary policy easing, in order to beat the deflation and stimulate the
demand of the country. Japans optimism coupled with hopes that US fiscal Cliff will be resolved rejuvenated the Asian
stocks during the week.
Despite the slow pace, daily turnover levels were primarily led by notable transactions witnessed in large cap counters
such as John Keells Holdings, Browns Investments, Sampath Bank and Commercial Bank of Ceylon. Heavy weight John
Keells holdings led the weeks turnover contributing a circa 61.3% while local and foreign institutions were bagging a
bargain on the counter. During the last day of trading, the market emerged out of the holiday mood demonstrating
healthy turnover and volumes. Off market deals were witnessed on John Keells Holdings, Browns Investments and
Sampath Bank on Friday which boosted the weekly turnover and volumes. Furthermore institutional interest was also
evolved around oil palms during the week where Bukit Darah also emerged in the weekly top turnover calibre, while
making a WoW price gain of 3% to close at LKR690.
Browns Investment emerged as the top volume traded counter mainly due to the Fridays crossing where 19mn shares
were exchanged at a price of LKR5.50. In addition top traded counters in terms of volume were PC House, John Keells
Holdings and Free Lanka Capital Holdings.
The week recorded an average turnover of LKR424.8mn whilst the average volume was 16mn.
The week saw foreign purchases amounting to LKR 811.2mn whilst foreign sales amounted to LKR 69.2mn. The market
capitalisation as at the end of the week stood at LKR 2,153.9bn and the YTD performance is -7.7%.

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 3

Features
2012- At a Glance....

Disaggregation of ASI performance

The deepening of the downturn in economic activity experienced in most


developed markets in the aftermath of the global financial crisis continued
to dominate the performance of global financial markets during the year. In
the early days of the crisis, investments in the equity markets of emerging
and frontier markets seemed attractive due to the low correlations
exhibited by the stock returns of these stock markets. However by 2012, the
impact of the crisis had begun to affect the real economies of most
developing markets through their trade linkages with the developed market.
This filtered in to the financial markets resulting in a revision of correlations
as markets begun to move in-sync.

6,074
5,527

Source: Bloomberg

The CSE despite being ranked by Bloomberg as the best performing stock
market in 2010 was not immune to these forces which resulted in a
negative 9% YTD return in the All Share price Index (ASI) by December 2012.
The market was also going through a phase of correction as a result of the
index rising to untenable levels in the immediate post war period. Further
the high interest rates environment which prevailed in the economy
towards the latter half of the year induced a greater proportion of retail
investors to choose more stable fixed income investments such as time
deposits and corporate debentures over risky equity investments. This
resulted in the YTD P/E growth was a negative 13% although market
earnings grew by 4% over the same period.

Turnover ratio Vs. ASI movement


%

Index

45%

40%

40%

Oct'10 Bloomberg - CSE


becomes the best
performing stock market
in the world

35%
30%

6,000

5,000
24%

25%
20%
15%

15%

25%

4,000

17%

3,000

14%

12%

2,000

10%

1,000

5%
0%

2006

We now go on to review some of the key economic and market news which
impacted the performance of the CSE over the year 2012.

7,000

2007

2008

2009

2010

Turnover ratio(%)

2011

2012

ASI yearly movement

*Turnover ratio = Avg. annual market turnover/ Avg. annual


market cap

The ASI in review

Source: CSE, World Bank

Index

6,300
Repo & reverse repo
rate raised to 7.5%
& 9% respectively

Economy
moves away
from fixed
exchange rate

6,100

2nd upward revision


of Repo & reverse
repo rates by 25bps

Trade account
deficit worsens

5,900

YTD
negetive
return
improved to
-1.7%

Govt plans to
issue USD1 bn
sovereign bond

5,700

5,500

Custodial role
of NSB
suspended by
CSE

SEC
relaxes
rules on
brokering
firms
lending

5,300

Access
engineering
debuts on
the CSE

5,100
Crude oil hits
USD105/
barrel

4,900

SEC
relaxes 3
key
regulations
to boost
the
market.
2013
budget
propos
als

Excise
duty on
liquor
increased

Reciept of
the final
tranche of
USD2.5
SBA

SEC tightens
trading rules
of market
insiders

IMF revises
GDP growth
forecast to
7.5% for
2012

CBSL revises
growth
forecast to
6.8% for 2012

Dr. Nalaka
Godahewa
appointed as
new SEC
Chairman

IMF revises
GDP growth
forecast to
6.7%

Resignation of
SEC Chairman
Mr.Thilak
Karunaratne

Fitch ratings
reaffirms Sri
Lanka;s BBrating

CBSL cuts policy rates


and lifts cieling on
credit expansion

Source: CSE, Bloomberg

17-Dec

3-Dec

10-Dec

26-Nov

19-Nov

5-Nov

12-Nov

29-Oct

22-Oct

8-Oct

15-Oct

1-Oct

24-Sep

17-Sep

3-Sep

10-Sep

27-Aug

20-Aug

6-Aug

13-Aug

30-Jul

23-Jul

9-Jul

16-Jul

2-Jul

25-Jun

18-Jun

4-Jun

11-Jun

28-May

21-May

7-May

14-May

30-Apr

23-Apr

9-Apr

16-Apr

2-Apr

26-Mar

19-Mar

5-Mar

12-Mar

27-Feb

20-Feb

6-Feb

13-Feb

30-Jan

23-Jan

9-Jan

16-Jan

2-Jan

4,700

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 4

Features
January
Market watchers began the year on an optimistic note and were hopeful of
a turnaround in the markets prospects with the SECs decision to relax
credit rules to the delight of most brokering houses. Despite the estimated
LKR 5bn boost to market liquidity resulting from this decision, the
Colombo bourse displayed lackluster activity throughout the month. The
critical comments made by Standard Chartered Bank with respect to the
Central Banks Roadmap 2012 as being overly optimistic foreshadowed
the macroeconomic weaknesses that were to be witnessed over the
coming months.
February
The Central Banks decision to shift from a fixed exchange rate regime to a
managed exchange rate represented a paradigm shift in the Sri Lankan
economy. The decision which resulted in a sharp depreciation of the LKR
was mirrored in the ASI index movement which fell sharply to approach
the 5,000 level. Contemporaneously the Central Bank took decisive
measures with the twin objectives of lowering private credit growth and
inflation in order to prevent the economy from overheating. This was done
by raising the repo and reverse repo rates to 7.5% and 9% respectively.
The CBSL also capped credit growth at 18% based on the banks
outstanding loan book at the end of 2011. This had implications for
borrowing costs which begun to trend upwards which severely affected
the earnings performance of listed firms towards the latter half of the
year.
March
The dull sentiment permeating amongst equity investors did not however
dampen the interest witnessed in Access Engineering; which debuted on
the CSE on the 27 of March. The credible performance of the stock in the
opening week of the IPO propelled the counter to become the most
valuable stock in the Construction and Engineering sector. The significant
foreign interest recorded in diversified counters over the month totaling
approx. LKR17.9 bn, helped arrest the slide in the ASI.

GDP forecasts for 2012E


Initial optimism wavered..

Jan-12 Apr-12 Sep-12 Dec-12


CBSL

8%

7.2%

6.8%

6.5%

Sep-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Oct-12


IMF

6.5%

7.5%

7.5%

6.7%

Source: CBSl & IMF reports

Structural break in exchange regime


USD/LKR
spot

140
135
130

125
120
115
110
105

100

Source: Bloomberg

New IPO listings for the year


Counter

Date

Asia Asset Finance

12/01/12

2.5

120mn

Access Engineering

27/03/12

25

25mn

Mackwoods

25/04/12

14

25mn

Sanasa Development Bank 31/05/12

125

25.2mn

20

5.7mn

Hikkaduwa beach resort


Source: CSE

17/12/12

Price Quantity

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 5

Features
Exponential growth in trade deficit
USD (mn)

2,500

2,000
1,500
1,000

500

1-Jun-11

1-Dec-11

1-Jun-12

23.11.2012

14.12.2012

1-Jun-10

1-Dec-10

1-Jun-09

1-Dec-09

1-Jun-08

1-Dec-08

1-Jun-07

1-Dec-07

1-Jun-06

1-Dec-06

1-Jun-05

1-Dec-05

1-Jun-04

1-Dec-04

1-Jun-03

1-Dec-03

09.11.2012

May
The 2nd week of May marked the earnings season for the CSE with
majority of companies reporting FY12 full year results. The noticeable
slowdown in YoY earnings growth for many sectors dampened investor
expectations. During the month, Fitch ratings reaffirmed its BB- rating
with a stable outlook for Sri Lankas sovereign debt. Further, a
significant negative market event was revealed to the market on the
9th of May, which saw the suspension of NSBs custodial role by CSE
over its failure to honor the purchase of its 13% stake in The Finance
Company (TFC). The much publicized incident led to the Securities &
Exchange commission (SEC) introducing more stringent trading
measures for market insiders. The overall impact was a drop in YTD
performance of the ASI to negative 20% by the end of the month.

3,000

1-Dec-02

April
The confidence in the future economic outlook by both the IMF and the
ADB which expected a GDP growth of 7.5% and 7% for 2012
respectively resulted in a slight upturn in the index. On the other hand,
in the external side of the economy, the trade balance rose
exponentially in 1Q2012 as the economy felt the effects of the J-curve
phenomenon which causes in the short term a worsening of the terms
of trade in the event of a significant depreciation. Also in response to
this, the Central bank decided to tighten monetary policy even further
by raising both the repo and reverse repo rates by 25bps. However,
both the IMF & the Central Bank remained confident that growth rates
would be sustained despite short term weaknesses which lent
confidence to equity investors.

Source: CBSL

YTD* performance in the red

*Calculated with end of the


month index values
Source: CSE

Interest rates trend upwards..

14

13
12
11
10

91 days

182 days

19.10.2012

05.10.2012

21.09.2012

07.09.2012

24.08.2012

10.08.2012

27.07.2012

13.07.2012

29.06.2012

15.06.2012

01.06.2012

18.05.2012

04.05.2012

20.04.2012

05.04.2012

16.03.2012

02.03.2012

17.02.2012

03.02.2012

20.01.2012

06.01.2012

June
The market continued its slide in the month of June as the high interest
rate environment brought about by the Central Banks decision to keep
policy rates at an elevated level in order to limit excessive credit
growth, resulted in returns offered by stable fixed income instruments
such as time deposits and debentures seem more attractive to retail
investors over uncertain more risky equity investments. The index fell
to its lowest level of 4737.75 with an YTD loss of 22% on the 6th of June
over growing concerns over governance related matters which
prompted the SEC to boost its investigative capacity. Turning to the
external side, the policies undertaken by the Central Bank to limit
private sector credit growth coupled with the depreciation of the
Rupee resulted in a slowdown in the growth of imports which could
have contributed towards the slight upturn in the market witnessed
towards the end of the month.

364 days

Source: CBSL

Significant drop in average daily volumes

*As at 21st December 2012


Source: CBSL

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 6

Features
July
Inflation measured by Colombo
Consumer Price Index

Despite the outbreak of several positive news; such as relaxation of


broker credit period, 10.5 times oversubscription of the USD1 bn
sovereign bond and the receipt of the final tranche of the USD 2.5 bn
standby agreement (SBA), the bourse didnt witness a major turnaround
in local investor participation. However the foreign participation for the
month of July increased mainly on account of the IMFs positive outlook
on the country and the release of the final tranche of USD 2.5bn SBA
which resulted in a net foreign inflow of LKR2.5 bn compared to the net
foreign inflow of LKR6.2mn recorded in June. The gross official reserves of
the country also improved significantly to reach USD 7.1 bn in July, the
highest figure for the 12 months. On a separate note, the drought
conditions witnessed during the 2Q2012 took a toll on the prices of
consumer goods in July. Colombo Consumer price index accelerated to a
15-month high of 9.8 percent in July as the dry weather damaged most
food crops.

The month of August was highlighted with significant structural changes in


SEC. With the resignation of the SEC Chairman Mr.Thilak Karunaratne, the
bourse was covered in a veil of speculation as to the identity of the next
chairman. A heightened activity in both turnover levels and volumes were
witnessed during the last two weeks of August as the market rumored
that Dr.Nalaka Godahewa would be appointed as the new SEC chairman
whilst the official announcement was made towards the end of the
month. The month also highlighted the release of earnings for the June
quarter where a YoY dip in most companies was witnessed mainly owing
to the negative economic conditions such as increasing interest rates,
depreciation of LKR and mounting energy prices. However, expectations
over a positive structural change in SEC resulted in YTD improving from 18.8% in end of July to -14.4% in end of August.

10

8
6
4
2

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2011

Net foreign inflow


LKR

20,000
18,000

16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000

2,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Source: CSE

Average Trading Volume on monthly


basis

September
Repeating the history, the bourse witnessed an extra boost in activity
during the month of September recording the highest revenue and
turnover for the year. The rally witnessed in September reduced the YTD
negative return to -1.7% while the ASI surpassed 5,900 levels. However
the economy witnessed a further tightening on its 2012 full year growth
targets with Central Bank releasing the 2Q2012 economic results. The
economic growth eased to 6.4% YoY during the second quarter of the year
mainly on account of the tightened monetary policies and drought
conditions. Subsequently, Central Bank revised its economic growth
projections to 6.8% from 7.2%.

2012 (Until November)

Source: Bloomberg

Millions

August

12

Source: CSE

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 7

Features
October
Month of October was predominantly driven by profit booking where
speedy gains witnessed in most counters during September faded away
dragging down both indices. October was marked by SECs decision to
relax several regulations such as loosening the broker credit margins,
lifting 20% upper price limit on off market deals and lifting the ban on
directors and employees of broking firm selling shares within six
months from their purchase. During the month, government decided to
increase the excise duty on liquor, while the price ceiling on cement
and poultry was also increased creating pressure on consumer price
levels. Subsequent to the Central Banks 2012 economic growth
revision in September, IMF also made a downward revision to the
projected economic growth from 7.5% to 6.7%.

Average Turnover on monthly basis


LKR '000'
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000

Jan

Mar

Apr

December was marked by a number of critical economic


announcements. Central Bank decided to ease the monetary policy by
reducing both repurchase and reverse repurchase rates by 25 basis
points while the credit ceiling imposed on banks was also removed with
effect from next year. A major turnaround in both ASI and MPI was
witnessed subsequent to the announcement. Central Bank also
released the 3Q2012 economic indicators during the month which
demonstrated the lowest growth of 4.8% for the quarter since the end
of the war, mainly owing to internal and external shocks. Subsequently
Central bank also revised the countrys 2012 growth targets to 6.5%
from an earlier 6.8%.

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Global Crude Oil Price Movement


USD/barrel

USD
110
105
100
95

90
85
80

Source: Bloomberg

December

May

Source: CSE

November
Positive sentiments were witnessed across the board during the initial
two weeks which was marked by governments budget proposal for
2013. Bourse reacted positively to the budget which gave several
concessions for the development of the capital markets. Month of
November also marked the 3QCY2012 earnings announcements for
listed corporates. A robust earnings growth was witnessed in sectors
such as Banking, Finance & Insurance, Hotel and Leisure and
Plantations. However the overall earnings for the quarter witnessed a
YoY dip of 4%. The overall impact was a drop in YTD performance of the
ASI to negative 11.9% by the end of the month.

Feb

Oct

Nov

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 8

Features
Overview of Sri Lankas Economic Developments - 2012
Sri Lanka managed to successfully avoid an external payments crisis in 2012 and maintained a robust real economic
growth of 6.4% during the first three quarters of 2012 outpacing most regional economies amidst a challenging external
and internal economic environment and become one of the fastest growing economies in Asia-Pacific. However,
3Q2012 saw real GDP growth moderating to 4.8% YoY mainly on the back of the sharp dip in paddy output by 38.2% YoY
in the face of adverse weather conditions. Further, contractionary monetary and tax policy measures adopted by state
authorities to avoid an external payments crisis coupled with the waning demand from export destinations curbed the
pace of real growth of manufacturing and services to 3.3% and 4.6% YoY respectively from 7.7% and 7.8% YoY from the
previous year. The major contributors to real output growth in 3Q2012 were Mining & Quarrying (16.2% YoY),
Construction (16.5% YoY), Hotels & Restaurants (25.3% YoY), Transport & Communication (7.8% YoY), Banking,
Insurance and Real Estate, etc., (7.1% YoY) and Private services (6.7% YoY).
7%
6%

Real GDP Growth Forecast - 2012

6.5%

6.1%
5.5%

5.2%

5.0%
5%
4%

6.4%

4.3%
3.6%

3.6%

3.5%

3%

2.5%

2%
1%
-0.3%
0%
-1%

Source: World Bank

With regard to the external sector, deficit in the trade account and imports expenditure dropped 1% and 4% YoY
respectively from Jan-Oct 2012 owing to the market and nonmarket corrective measures adopted by the fiscal and
monetary authorities with the aim of narrowing the deficit in the trade account of the balance of payments. On the face
of this shift in governments response to overcome contradictions in the economys growth process, gross official
reserves improved significantly to USD 6.6 billion by October 2012 from USD 5.5 billion in February 2012 despite exports
receipts falling 6.6% YoY in Jan-Oct 2012. Improvement in gross official reserves in the face of declining exports receipts
was achieved by monetary authorities raising the level of domestic real interest rates significantly above that of the
regional economies to attract foreign savings into economys financial sphere primarily targeting government securities.
This was further assisted by the changes in the monetary policy environment which allowed the sharp depreciation of
the currency, rendering domestic financial and real assets more price-competitive in world markets.
On the back of these developments, interest yield on government paper and market interest rates spiked over 500 basis
points during the year raising the foreign inflows to the government securities by a massive 129.3% YoY to USD 2.1
billion in Jan-Oct 2012, strengthening the official reserves and balance of payments position amidst declining exports
receipts of the economy. For instance, the yield on Sri Lankas on-the-run 10 year government bonds increased to 1297
basis points(bps) while financially troubled Greece has a 10 year bond spread of 990bps; 307 points lower than Sri
Lanka. In the face of these adjustments, coupled with the credit growth ceiling imposed on the banking sector by the
monetary authorities, credit growth to private sector from the domestic banking system eased to 23.5% YoY in Jan-Oct
2012 from a high of 33.4% YoY in the previous year. As a result, reserve money growth moderated to 10.7% YoY from

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 9

Features
22.1% YoY in the previous year. This is to say that the influence of capital account dynamics in determining the changes
in monetary and external sector variables and the overall growth performance increased during the year relative to the
changes in the trade account of the economy.
%
12

10

10.2
9.5

Regional Comparison of Inflation and Interest


rates
9.9
9.3

9.2

8.2

8.1

7.2

6.9

7.1

4.0 4.3

2.8

2.8 2.7

0.5

T bill 91 days (%)

Point to point Inflation November (%)

Source: Bloomberg

On the other hand, nonmarket fiscal measures were adopted by treasury authorities to stem the flow of imports by
sharply raising domestic fuel prices, increasing taxes on essential goods such as milk powder and other imported food
products and raising taxes on imports of consumer vehicles & parts and agricultural equipment, etc. Inflationary
pressures set in on the back of these developments curtailing domestic demand and reducing the expected 2012E GDP
growth to 6.5% from over 8%. The tax revenue growth of the government in this setting slid to 7.6% YoY in Jan-Sep 2012
from 12.1% in 2011. On the other hand, unavoidable liabilities in the form of interest and salaries expenditure,
procurement costs and welfare expenses picked up during the year, which in turn caused the fiscal authorities to raise
consumer taxes to remain close to the deficit target of 6.2% of 2012 GDP. On account of these fiscal developments the
general price level of the economy increased further towards the end of the year and the point to point inflation in
November reached as much as 9.5% while the annual average rate of inflation remains at 7.6%.
The drawback on domestic demand was held back to a considerable extent by the inward flow of labour remittances
gathering pace significantly during the year despite the negative growth of exports receipts. Workers remittances rose
17.6% YoY to USD 4.9 billion in Jan-Oct 2012 increasing its share as a percentage of total exports receipts of the
economy to 60.5%. The ratio more than doubled from 27.1% in 2004 and workers remittances have become the single
largest net foreign exchange earner of the economy. Further, in this connection, CBSL estimates that approximately 30%
-40% of the workers remittances are channelled in through unregistered sources, indicating that its contribution to the
growth of domestic demand is significantly exceeding the figures provided by official sources. Its also indicative of the
fact that rising inflow of remittances boosts household disposable income independent of the level of aggregate
incomes derived within the economy. The increase in the flow of remittances coupled with the growth in governments
deficit spending to nearly 7% of the 2012E GDP held up domestic demand amidst tight monetary and tax policy
environments and waning external demand for domestic suppliers.

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 10

Features
Worker's Remittances, Foreign Earnings and the
Labour Force
60.5

LKR bn
1000

%
70
60

800

47.0

600
27.4

27.6

27.1

30.6

400
13.6

13.1

13.3

16.7

31.4
19.1

32.7
21.9

47.8

48.7
50

36.0

22.2

40
22.7

23.8

24.6

30
20

200
10

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e
Remittance (LKR bn)
Remittance as a % of exports
Foreign employment as a % of total workforce

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

The rapid growth in the number of workers proceeding for foreign employment has become a key force in keeping Sri
Lankas unemployment at low levels compared to the region (3.9% 3Q2012) and in maintaining domestic purchasing
power in the face of unfavourable external and internal economic developments. This is indicated by 24.6% of
economys workforce resorting to foreign employment by end of 2011 and the ratio almost doubling from 13.1% in
2003. The other important aspect in this connection is that over 96% of the departures are for non-technical
employment and 91.5% of the migrant workers are finding employment in the Middle East region with a per capita
remittance of LKR 15,264 per month.
Further, the growing contribution of workers remittances to total exports receipts over the years as mentioned earlier
indicates that the composition of Sri Lankas comparative advantage is shifting from industrial production aimed at
supplying domestic and world markets to exporting surplus labour and supplying services targeting a captive home
demand. This demonstrates that the direction of economys aggregate investments is increasingly turning inwards. For
instance, highest percentage shares of 3Q2012 GDP at constant 2002 prices was attained by fields related to
Construction (8.1%), Whole sale & Retail Trade (23.9%), Transport & Communication (14.6%), Banking, Insurance & Real
Estate (8.7%), Private Services & Ownership of Dwellings (4.7%), Government Services (6.7%) and Food & Beverages
(7.3%), accounting for 74% of the 3Q2012 real GDP. This peculiar phenomenon of investments acquiring nonindustrial
and inward characteristics under the guidance of market forces and states facilitation tends to periodically produce
external payments issues in the absence of tight monetary and fiscal measures and affects the overall growth of factor
incomes and factor endowment in the economy. Hence, we are of the view that the Sri Lankan economy bears one of
the highest potential in the Asian region, since except for South Asia, the rest of Asia-Pacific to a considerable extent has
been able to correct its structural imbalances and are now growing at a more stable rate of real growth. Hence, more
emphasis should be made on the qualitative nature of Sri Lankas growth process rather than its quantitative aspects,
with the aim of reaching equilibrium in the growth structure. Hence, it appears that a structural shift in the general
pattern of investments is critical.

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 11

Features
Share of 3Q2012 GDP at Constant 2002 Prices (%)
Construction
6.5

8.1
Whole sale & Retail Trade

8.3

Transport & Communication


23.9

11.2

Banking, Insurance & Real Estate


Private Services & Ownership of Dwellings
Government Services

7.3

Food & Beverages


Agriculture

6.7

14.6
4.7
8.7

Garments, Chemicals, etc


Other

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

In this light, it is our view that productive investments should replace the relative dominance of nonindustrial forms of
socially less productive investments to achieve a more productive use of factors in the economy. The lack of dynamism
in export oriented industries and the relatively slow growth of industries supplying for a captive domestic market and
the expansion of nonindustrial investments remains a key reason in the external payments issues and tight nonmarket
policy measures that arise periodically. The importance of Sri Lankas economic structure weighs over and above of its
developments at the financial level and is the key in determining its future course of expansion. A sustained high rate of
growth depends upon a continuous emergence of new inventions and innovations, providing the bases for new
industries whose high rates of growth compensate for the inevitable slowing down in the rates of growth of the older
industries. A high rate of overall growth is thus accompanied by considerable shifting in relative importance among
industries, as the old decline and the new increase in relative weight in the nations output.
Hence, a carefully structured state intervention may be one possible solution to support and guide market forces to
achieve the shift in resource allocation from less productive to productive sectors. The East Asian governments in this
regard during its development process managed to achieve a balance between market forces and planning, fostering
more desirable aspects of market forces while avoiding its excess. However, fiscal frameworks announced in Sri Lankas
post-war era in this regard, sought to facilitate economic growth without necessarily considering these qualitative and
structural aspects of the envisaged growth pattern.

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 12

Features
Future Prospects of Sri Lankan Economy 2013 and Beyond
In this general backdrop, we expect 2013E real GDP to grow by a minimum of 6.6% YoY and the nominal GDP to grow
14.03% YoY to LKR 8,689.1 billion. We expect the annual average rate of inflation to ease to 5.5% in 2013 from 7.6% in
2012 and the Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR) during the year to stabilize at around 15.5% reversing the
increasing trend of interest rates in 2012. The removal of the credit growth ceiling imposed on the banking sector by the
monetary authority will take effect from January 2013 onwards. On account of this measure we expect the AWLR to
marginally dip during the year and also the banking sector to move into more long term financing. Hence, supply and
cost of capital for investments will tend to remain at a relatively favourable range in 2013 compared to 2012. We expect
the external sector is expected to retain its stability in 2013 in account of the market and nonmarket measures adopted
by fiscal and monetary authorities during 2012 to offset the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments.
Further, tourism sector is likely to remain decoupled from the waning demand prospects in the world markets unlike
the exports sector and hence may continue to outperform the output growth of the rest of the economy. This is to say
that the locally based backward linkages of tourism such as poultry are highly likely to benefit from the current boom in
the leisure sector.
We expect the governments financial position to consolidate on the back of upward revision of consumer taxes and
fuel prices during the second half of 2012, despite the aggregate demand in the economy is likely to moderate during
the course of the year. Hence, total tax revenue growth is likely to converge with the rate of expansion of the nominal
GDP contributing positively towards revenue growth and easing the deficit position during the year.
However, given that, unavoidable costs of the government (e.g. salaries & wages and interest and capital payments) as
a ratio of revenue has been rising, thus the resources available to public services such as healthcare, education, waste
disposal and transfer payments would remain limited. On the other hand, a possible inadequate growth of state
resources is likely to further reduce the supply quality and supply quantity of services traditionally provided by the
government in the long run. This in turn may open up fields such as education, health care, waste management and
security services for private investments and the composition of the supply of these particular services is likely to shift
from government to the private sector and hence, may turn favourable towards the latter. Especially, healthcare, which
is a material intensive process relative to other public services such as education and waste disposal, will be susceptible
to this trend more than other spheres. Hence, private investments in healthcare could be expected to increase in the
medium to long run which is likely to provide higher relative returns comparable to that of tourism. Hence, the sector
remains attractive for long term direct capital allocations as well as for equity investments. Furthermore, given the
relative non-tradability of service oriented activities, (that is to say that services sector compared to industry and
agriculture is less prone to enter trade across national boundaries) these fields remain inherently protected from
external competitive forces providing further comparative advantage for private investments. Hence, we expect the
private sector to increase its presence in these fields, and in the long run account for a larger share of output in these
sectors.

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 13

Features
Market Earnings Review
Market Snap shot 2011/2012

8000

INDEX MOVEMENT

LKR mn

4000

8000

7000

3500

7500

6000

3000

7000

5000

2500

6500

2000

6000

1500

5500

3000

1000

5000

2000

500

4500

ASI

MPI

4000

1000

4000
jan

feb

mar

apr

Turnover 2011

may

jun

jul

aug

Turnover 2012

sep

oct

ASI 2011

nov

dec

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ASI 2012

Aggregatemarket earnings for the 9MCY2012 amounted to LKR 134,593mn which increased 8% YoY. Significant YoY
earnings growth was witnessed in the Construction and Engineering (159%), Plantation (151%) and Power & Energy
(79%) sectors. While thetop contributors towards earnings were the Banking &Financesector with circa 30%
contribution (14.6%YoY growth), followed by the Diversified and Food & Beverage sectors which added 17.5% and
15.3% respectively.
LKR mn

LKR mn

Market Earnings

60,000.0

Cumulative Earnings

138,000

50,000.0

Sep'12

40,000.0

Jun'12

135,000
132,000

Mar'12
30,000.0

Dec'11

20,000.0
10,000.0

Sep'11

126,000

Jun'11

123,000

Mar'11

Sep'12

Jun'12

Mar'12

Dec'11

Sep'11

Jun'11

Mar'11

129,000

120,000
117,000
9MCY2012

9MCY2011

Highest earnings during the periodwas reported from 1QCY2012 that added LKR 53,598mn towards the market earnings
tally. Favorable economic conditions, which prevailed in the country during the beginning of the quarter, supported
such a growth, whereby most of the key sectors such (as Banking and Finance, Diversified, Food & Beverage,
Manufacturing, Hotels etc.) registered its highest earnings during 1QCY2012.
Subsequently the upward revision of taxes, interest rates, prices of fuel, credit celling imposed on banks and the
depreciating of the LKR, suppressed earnings of many sectors, which is clearly depicted by the significant drop of 39%
QoQin earnings during the 2QCY2012. Earnings regained back in 3QCY2012 with the appreciation of the rupee, which
supported the improvement in performance of key sectors.

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 14

Features
Sector Index performance 2012
TRADING
TELECOM
MILANKA
SERVICES
STORES SUPPLIES
PLANTATIONS
POWER & ENERGY
OIL PALMS
MOTORS
MANUFACTURING
LAND PROPERTY
IT
INVESTMENT TRUST
HEALTH CARE
HOTELS TRAVELS
FOOTWEAR TEXTILE
DIVERSIFIED
CHEMICALS PHARMS
CONSTRUCTION ENG
BEV FOOD TOBACCO
BANK FINANCE INS
MARKET

-60.00%

-40.00%

-20.00%

SECTOR
CONSTRUCTIONS
PLANTATIONS
POWER & ENERGY
HEALTH SERVICES
SERVICES
BEVERAGE FOOD AND TOBACCO
FINANCIAL SERVICES
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
HOTELS AND TRAVELS
TRADING
MANUFACTURING
LAND AND PROPERTY
MOTORS
STORES AND SUPPLIES
DIVERSIFIED
OIL PALMS
CHEMICALS & PHARMACEUTICALS
FOOTWEAR AND TEXTILES
INVESTMENT TRUST
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

9MCY 2012 9MCY 2011


2,799.0
1,080.3
3,676.1
1,466.1
2,725.5
1,522.6
1,487.7
944.0
811.6
648.2
20,644.7
16,963.0
40,085.2
34,968.0
8,344.3
7,430.4
5,115.7
4,589.0
2,098.0
1,884.6
9,175.7
8,461.3
1,706.1
1,694.4
4,477.5
4,730.4
225.0
242.8
23,518.3
27,264.3
3,601.2
5,043.1
993.7
1,683.3
(282.0)
(1,252.1)
615.9
4,195.8
(26.4)
214.4

Change
159.1%
150.7%
79.0%
57.6%
25.2%
21.7%
14.6%
12.3%
11.5%
11.3%
8.4%
0.7%
-5.3%
-7.3%
-13.7%
-28.6%
-41.0%
N/M

-85.3%
N/M

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 15

Features
Review of Key Sector Earnings
Bank Finance and Insurance Sector
The largest sector in terms of market capitalization (accounts for 24% of the total market capitalization) witnessed a
15% YoY growth for 9MCY2012, despite the measures taken to curb the credit growth. However, finance companies
registered a 5% YoY dip for 9MCY2012 due to a decline in vehicle financing followed by the tax hike and increased
interest rates that restricted the vehicle purchase. Commercial Bank being the main contributor towards the earnings
of 9MCY2012 witnessed a YoY growth of 25% in earnings during the period. Hatton National Bank became the second
highest contributor, registering a 26% YoY growth in earnings for 9MCY2012, whilst Sampath Bank witnessed a YoY
growth of 19%. Further, Peoples Leasing and Finance Company, the largest leasing company recorded a growth of 30%
YoY.
Bank Finance & Insurance

LKR mn

(Quarterly Earnings)

Bank Finance & Insurance

32,000

(Cumalative earnings )

LKR mn

31,000

12,000

30,000

10,000

29,000

8,000

28,000

6,000

27,000

4,000

26,000

2,000

25,000

24,000
Sep'12

Jun'12

Mar'12

Dec'11

Sep'11

Jun'11

Mar'11

9MCY2012

9MCY2011

Beverage Food and Tobacco


Sector comprises of 20 companies, with a combined market capitalization of LKR 384,448mn, which iscirca 18% of the
total market capitalization. For the 9MCY2012, the sector witnessed 22% YoY growth in earnings recording LKR
20,612mn. Significant growth of 294% YoY (for the same period) was seenon Ceylon Cold Stores(adding circa 10% to the
sector earnings),primarily due to a one off fair value adjustment took place in 1QCY2012. In addition, large cap
counters such as Distilleries further supported earnings growththat edged 33% YoY (adding 29% to sector earnings)
followed byCeylon Tobaccoand Keells Foods, which witnessed a 7% and 27%YoY growth in earnings YoY respectively.
The rise in price of goods coupled with the increase in volumes sold, as a result of the upsurge in disposable income in
the country, and the increase in tourist arrivals, supported the sector earnings growth.
Beverage Food and Tobacco

Beverage Food and Tobacco

LKR mn

10,000

LKR mn

(Quaterly Earnings )

(Cumulative earnings )

25,000

8,000
20,000

6,000
15,000

4,000
10,000

2,000

5,000

0
Sep'12

Jun'12

Mar'12

Dec'11

Sep'11

Jun'11

Mar'11

9MCY2012

9MCY2011

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 16

Features
Diversified Sector
The sector constitutes 17 listed companies, accounting for 22% of the total market capitalization. It witnessed a 14%
YoY dip to register LKR22,257mn for 9MCY2012 mainly due to the adverse movements in macro factors hindering the
performance of majority of companies. The main contributors towards the sector earnings for 9MCY2012 were John
Keells Holdings (37%), Aitken Spence (14%) and Carsons Cumberbatch (10%). Despite John Keells Holdings and Aitken
Spence witnessing strong growth of 50% YoY and 53% YoY for 9MCY2012, a major dip of 65% YoY in Carsons
Cumberbatch that was witnessed due to the poor performance of palm oil segment. Further, a major dip witnessed in
Hayleys (-65% YoY) due to a huge reduction in other income coupled with the high finance burden, and a 95% YoY dip in
Browns Investments as a result of a one-off negative good will adjustment in 9MCY2011 have dragged down the overall
sector growth.
Diversified Holdings

LKR mn

LKR mn

Diversified Holdings

30,000

(Quarterly Earnings)

(Cumalative earnings )

25,000

14,000
12,000

20,000

10,000
8,000

15,000

6,000

10,000

4,000
5,000

2,000

Sep'12

Jun'12

Mar'12

Dec'11

Sep'11

Jun'11

9MCY2012

Mar'11

9MCY2011

Hotels & Travels Sector


The Hotels & Travels sector which represents a circa 7% of the total market cap witnessed a 11% YoY growth in earnings
for 9MCY2012, driven by the increase in tourist arrivals which invariably increased the ARR and occupancy levels and
the rupee depreciation. The sector usually records the best results during March followed by December quarter as
these periods are the peak season for tourism industry in Sri Lanka. The growth was mainly driven by Asian Hotels &
Properties with a staggering YoY growth of 480% for the first nine months, and Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings with a YoY
growth of 316%. Further, John Keells Hotels registered a YoY growth of 211%.
Hotels & Travels

LKR mn

Hotels & Travels

LKR mn

(Quartertely Earnings)

(Cumalative earnings )

5,200

3,500

5,100

3,000

5,000

2,500

4,900

2,000

4,800
4,700

1,500

4,600
1,000

4,500

500

4,400

4,300
Sep'12

Jun'12

Mar'12

Dec'11

Sep'11

Jun'11

Mar'11

9MCY2012

9MCY2011

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 17

Features
Health Services
Relatively small sized sector with 6 listed entities and a sector market capitalizationof over LKR38,156 mn, which is 2%
of the total market capitalization. Cumulative earnings for 9MCY2012, was as LKR 1,487.7mn, which is a 58.2% YoY
increase.Nawaloka reported the highest earnings growth of 223% for the period under review, whilst Ceylon Hospitals
recorded a YoY earnings growth of circa 160%, whilst AsiriHospitals witnessed a 30% YoYgrowth during 9MCY2012.
Growing health concerns along with improving standards of living and private health insurance support presumably
would have contributed to such a growth.
LKR mn

Health Services

Health Services

1,000

( Quaterly Earnings )

LKR mn

(Cumulative earnings)

1,600

800

1,400
1,200

600

1,000

400

800
600

200

400
200

Sep'12

Jun'12

Mar'12

Dec'11

Sep'11

Jun'11

Mar'11

9MCY2012

9MCY2011

Manufacturing
The sector comprises of 36 companies with a total sector market capitalization of LKR 97,735mn, which is circa 5% of
the total stock market capitalization. Sector market earnings for 9MCY2012 was LKR 8,893mn which is a rise of 8.6%
YoY. ACL Cables and KelaniTyres witnessed 98% and 140% YoY earnings growth during the period. Meanwhile, large cap
Chevron Lubricantssaw an earnings growth of 19% YoY with a contribution of 19% to the total sector earnings. Despite
the earnings growth, the sector experienced mixed results over the period of which developments in construction
sector and demand for motor vehicles that prevailed in the first 3 months of the period in concern supported towards a
rise in earnings. Regardless of such a rise, sector earnings started to decline QoQ from March 2012 onwards due to
increase in energy costs and depreciation of LKR increasing the cost of raw material.

Manufacturing

LKR mn

Manufucturing

(Quaterly Earnings)

5,000

LKR mn

4,000

(Cumalative earnings)

9,000
8,800

3,000

8,600
2,000

8,400

1,000

8,200
8,000

7,800
Sep'12

Jun'12 Mar'12 Dec'11 Sep'11

Jun'11 Mar'11

9MCY2012

9MCY2011

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 18

Features
Plantation Sector
The Plantation sector comprises 18 listed companies accounting for circa 1.2% of the total market capitalization. Even
though the sector witnessed a buoyant growth of 151% YoY for 9MCY2012, it should be noted that during 2011 the
plantation companies faced a wage revision that increased the cost of production and also resulted in one-off gratuity
provision being charged to the income statement dragging the profits down. In addition, companies which have higher
exposure to tea have experienced the demand for tea condensing further and witnessed a major decline in their
earnings mainly due to the crisis in the Middle East. Wattawala Plantation witnessed a growth of 115% YoY mainly due
to the divestment of Wattawala Marketing Ltd. In addition, Kegalle Plantation witnessed a YoY dip of 6% for 9MCY2012
due to a reduction in production, whilst Kelani Valley Plantation and Kotagala Plantation registered a YoY growth of
41% and 54% respectively.
Plantations

LKR mn
3,000

(Cumalative earnings )

4,000
3,500

2,500

3,000

2,000

2,500

1,500

2,000

1,000

1,500

500

1,000

(500)

Plantations

LKR mn

(Quarterly Earnings)

500

Sep'12

Jun'12

Mar'12

Dec'11

Sep'11

Jun'11

Mar'11

9MCY2012

(1,000)

9MCY2011

Power and Energy Sector


The sector includes 8 listed companies which are spread across business such both fuel distribution and power
generation. The sector witnessed an astounding growth of 79% YoY for 9MCY2012 mainly due to the strong growth
witnessed in the fuel distribution companies due to the fuel and energy price hikes. Hence, companies such as Lanka
IOC and Laugfs Gas enjoyed a staggering growth of 987% YoY and 48% YoY respectively for 9MCY2012 due to the strong
growth in their top line. On the other hand, Vallibel Power (-41% YoY), Hemas Power (-48% YoY), Hydro Power (171%) and Panasian Power (-82%) witnessed sharp drop in earnings due to the drought conditions that prevailed
during the middle of the year affecting the hydro power generation.
Power & Energy
1,600
LKR mn

Power & Energy


LKR mn

(Quarterly Earnings)

1,800

1,400

(Cumalative earnings )

1,600

1,200

1,400

1,000

1,200

800

1,000
800

600

600

400

400

200

200

Sep'12

Jun'12

Mar'12

Dec'11

Sep'11

Jun'11

Mar'11

9MCY2012

9MCY2011

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 19

Features
Telecommunication
Sector consists of two counters, which captures 7% of the total market capitalization, which is LKR 144,387mn. Both
counters witnessed growth in earnings collectively contributing towards a sector earnings growth of 12.3% YoY to reach
approximately LKR 8,344.3mn for 9MCY2012. Earnings of Dialog during 9MCY2012, increased 39% YoY contributing
66% towards sector earnings. This was mainly on the back of a deferred tax reversal, which took place during the
September quarter of 2012. However, during 1QCY2012 the sector reported negative results, as Dialog posted a loss,
due to the mammoth rise in its finance charge arising from revaluing forex loans. Meanwhile SLTL saw a YoY decline of
18% in its cumulative earnings for 9MCY2012. In addition, SLTL also underperformed during the March quarter
2012because of the increased finance charge during that period.
Telecommunication

Telecommunication
( Quaterly Earnings )

LKR mn

8,000

LKR mn

6,000

8,400

4,000

8,200
8,000
7,800

2,000
0
Sep'12

-2,000

Jun'12 Mar'12 Dec'11 Sep'11

(Cumulative earnings )

8,600

Jun'11 Mar'11

7,600
7,400
7,200
7,000
6,800
9MCY2012

9MCY2011

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 20

Features
Frontier Markets Vs ASIs Performance
Frontier Markets are a subset of emerging markets. Key features of the Frontier Markets are; lower market
capitalization and less liquidity compared to more developed emerging markets, and lower correlation with mature
markets. Frontier markets are being sought after by investors seeking high risk and return, long term investments and
looking for diversification. It is believed that investments in frontier assets would diversify and reduce risk of their
portfolios due to lower correlation with other markets.
In this regard, it is important to analyze the performance of the overall frontier markets and the correlation between
frontier market indices and the Sri Lankan equity markets.

Source: Bloomberg

It was witnessed that correlation between the ASI and the MSCI World index has come down during 2012 to a coefficient
of 0.35 from a previous high coefficient of 0.68 recorded historically in 2011. Sri Lankas low correlation with developed
markets together with the strong growth potential compared with regional peers would remain attractive to foreign
investors who seek to diversify their risk. The foreign investors involvement during 2012 recording the highest ever net
foreign inflow of Rs.38Bn to date emphasizes the relative attractiveness of the equity market in the country, which can be
compared with high net portfolio equity outflows prevailed during 2005-2010.
Cseall index

MSCI FM frontier markets

MSCI emerging market index

MSCI World index

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

0.64

0.64

0.63

0.48

0.68

0.35

MSCI FM frontier markets

0.64

0.64

0.86

0.88

0.81

0.8

MSCI emerging market index

0.63

0.48

0.86

0.88

0.96

0.85

MSCI World index

0.68

0.35

0.81

0.80

0.96

0.85

CSEALL

Source: Bloomberg

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 21

Features
Future outlook
It has been the case that investors who are seeking diversification from matured markets moving towards frontier
markets seeking opportunities to benefit from these growing economies. Sri Lanka is expected to benefit as well, backed
by governments intention to create an investor friendly climate enshrined in its 2011, 2012, and 2013 budget
proposals.
However, it is important to note that these benefits involve its own risks such as currency risk, less liquidity in the markets
and regulatory and trading execution risk.

Equity Market Comparison


Country

Vietnam Baharain

Bloomberg Code
52- Week High
52- Week Low
Current Index
P/E
Beta Vs. Dow Jones Avg
Correlation Vs Dow Jones Avg
Dividend Yield
Year to date Market return
Market Cap (USD bn)

VNINDEX
488.07
336.73
404.02
11.21
0.161
0.109
4.69
14.69
36.1

Source: Bloomberg

BHSEASI
1162.19
1035.3
1039.27
11.61
0.021
0.002
4.73
-9.13
11.8

Oman

Tunisia

Pakistan

SriLanka

MSCI FM Frontier Markets

MSM30
6007.71
5358.29
5676.11
10.76
0.027
0.002
4.42
-0.33
20.0

TUNINDEX
5266.5
4585.02
4586.25
25.17
0.021
0.001
1.29
-2.88
8.6

KSE100
16962.3
10909.1
16953.78
8.26
-0.084
0.008
6.48
49.41
44.6

CSEALL
6093.39
4737.75
5536.67
11.79
-0.006
0
2.71
8.85
16.9

MXFM
491.48
438.28
487.01
10.73
0.125
0.065
3.92
4.27
387.5

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 22

Features
Performance of stocks for which we have provided target prices in 2012
As discussed above, the adverse movements in the macro factors particularly rising interest rates, depreciation of LKR
have taken its toll at the Colombo bourses performance. Further, the attractive rates on fixed income investments led
to a shift in investors interest towards it and dragged down the performance of the bourse. However, the bourses YTD
performance which slipped by almost 20% during the mid of this year, improved to -8.3% by end of the year mainly due
to a sudden upward trend witnessed during the month of September. Hence, this is an attempt to review the
performance of those counters that were released with target prices during this year.
Price Index

Price Movement

140
120
ASI

100

AHPL
80

AHUN
60

CIC-N

40

CIC-X

20

TKYO - N

TKYO -X

The following graphs depicts the counters with recommended price, the date of recommendation, trading price on
the recommendation date and the highest price reached after the recommendation.

Asian Hotels and Properties (AHPL)


90
85

"HOLD"
Trading price LKR 75.0
Target price LKR 86.9
25/01/12

Highest reached
LKR 86.0, 04/09/12

Highest reached LKR


85.4, 09/10/2012

Price

80

75
70
65
60

"HOLD"
Trading price LKR 80.7
Target price LKR 85.0
19/09/12

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 23

Features
Aitken Spence Hotels Holdings (AHUN)
84

Price

81
78
75

"BUY"
Trading price LKR 67.7
Target price LKR 82.4
14/03/12

Highest reached LKR


80.0, 25/09/12

Highest reached
LKR 73.3, 23/04/12

72

69
66
63

"BUY"
Trading price LKR 66.5
Target price LKR 75.2
08/09/12

60

CIC Holdings (CIC- N)


105

100
95

Price

90

" LONG TERM BUY"


Trading price LKR 83.5
Target price LKR 100.5
18/07/12

Highest reached
LKR 90.4, 14/09/12

85
80

75
70
65

60

Price

CIC Holdings (CIC- X)


70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50

" LONG TERM BUY"


Trading price LKR 55.2
Target price LKR 73.3
18/07/12

Highest price
reached
LKR68.0, 18/09/12

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 24

Features

Price

Tokyo Cement (TKYO- N)


47
45
43
41
39
37
35
33
31
29
27
25

Highest reached
LKR
36.2, 27/04/12

"LONG TERM BUY"


Trading price LKR 27.0
Target price LKR 39.0
16/08/12

Highest price reached


LKR30., 19/09/12

"LONG TERM BUY"


Trading price LKR 37.0
Target price LKR 53.0
26/04/12

Tokyo Cement (TKYO- X)


29
27

"LONG TERM BUY"


Trading price LKR 23.6
Target price LKR 39.0
26/04/12

Price

25

"LONG TERM BUY"


Trading price LKR 19.8
Target price LKR 33.0
16/08/12

23
21
19
17
15

Highest price reached


LKR23.0,,04/05/12

Highest price reached


LKR20.9, 17/09/12

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 25

Colombo Bourses Billion Rupee Club


Table below shows the members who have qualified to be a part of Asia Wealth Researchs Billion Rupee Club. The
eligibility criteria lie with their earnings reaching LKR1 bn mark. The list will be refreshed on a quarterly basis
identifying the new qualifying members whilst eliminating the disqualifying.

Company

Shares (Mn) Trailing ROE Net Profit 4Qtrs

Trailing
EPS

Trailing
PE

PBV

Mkt Cap Mn
(LKR)

JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS

851.51

14.56%

10,900.49

12.80

17.2

2.5

187,247.01

COMMERCIAL BANK [V]

780.01

18.78%

9,611.80

11.53

8.9

1.7

80,341.47

53.47

18.78%

9,611.80

11.53

7.8

1.5

4,839.37

CEYLON TOBACCO

187.32

179.64%

8,145.00

43.48

18.9

33.9

153,605.48

HNB [V]

317.65

16.25%

7,171.46

18.05

8.1

1.3

46,694.56

79.60

16.25%

7,171.46

18.05

6.3

1.0

9,066.02

8143.78

17.96%

6,510.94

0.80

10.4

1.9

67,593.36

DISTILLERIES

300.00

15.46%

6,209.77

20.70

8.0

1.2

49,800.00

SAMPATH BANK

162.74

19.83%

4,784.49

29.40

6.8

1.4

32,710.07

1804.86

7.55%

4,148.00

2.30

19.3

1.5

79,955.30

AITKEN SPENCE

406.00

15.23%

3,947.22

9.72

12.3

1.9

48,719.53

LOLC

475.20

19.06%

3,928.29

8.27

6.5

1.2

25,660.80

1560.00

18.31%

3,502.00

2.24

5.9

1.1

20,748.00

DFCC BANK

265.10

12.27%

3,203.82

12.09

9.2

1.1

29,584.90

NDB

164.20

16.44%

3,039.55

18.51

7.5

1.2

22,824.06

CENTRAL FINANCE

104.88

20.15%

2,970.20

28.32

5.7

1.1

16,886.22

6377.71

44.22%

2,919.67

0.46

8.3

3.7

24,235.30

BUKIT DARAH

102.00

10.00%

2,913.11

28.56

24.2

2.4

70,380.00

OVERSEAS REALTY

843.48

13.50%

2,674.92

3.17

4.5

0.6

12,146.17

NESTLE LANKA

53.73

93.78%

2,649.72

49.32

30.4

28.5

80,588.19

UNITED MOTORS

67.27

39.71%

2,600.77

38.66

2.5

1.0

6,457.64

ASIAN HOTEL & PROPERTIES

442.78

16.86%

2,464.92

5.57

13.6

2.3

33,606.65

CARSON CUMBERBATCH

196.39

7.46%

2,418.12

12.31

35.3

2.6

85,428.31

95.04

32.18%

2,359.74

24.83

5.0

1.6

11,880.00

SEYLAN BANK [V]

173.33

11.84%

2,278.10

6.74

8.2

1.0

9,568.00

SEYLAN BANK [NV]

164.75

11.84%

2,278.10

6.74

5.2

0.6

5,799.08

CHEVRON LUBRICANTS

120.00

54.83%

2,277.70

18.98

10.6

5.8

24,240.00

COLOMBO DOCKYARD

71.86

21.91%

2,212.59

30.79

7.1

1.6

15,794.59

CEYLON TEA SERVICES

20.00

29.44%

2,194.96

109.75

6.1

1.8

13,300.00

1939.24

30.85%

2,107.10

1.09

7.2

2.2

15,126.05

532.53

17.74%

2,039.19

3.83

5.2

0.9

10,597.35

VALLIBEL ONE LIMITED

1086.56

6.07%

1,850.83

1.70

11.0

0.7

20,318.66

NATIONS TRUST BANK

230.61

19.02%

1,823.67

7.91

7.0

1.3

12,683.40

69.26

39.52%

1,787.02

25.80

5.7

2.3

10,250.06

110.79

22.71%

1,752.25

15.82

5.9

1.3

10,414.20

8.88

20.94%

1,605.52

180.87

3.3

0.7

5,370.24

AIT. SPENCE HOTEL HOLD.

336.29

14.14%

1,604.23

4.77

15.4

2.2

24,717.32

HEMAS HOLDINGS

515.29

13.20%

1,444.73

2.80

9.5

1.3

13,706.73

20.00

12.62%

1,419.35

70.97

11.5

1.9

16,300.00

6.41

12.62%

1,419.35

221.27

1.5

0.8

2,161.68

PCH HOLDINGS LIMITED

252.00

88.39%

1,395.17

5.54

1.4

1.3

1,990.80

SINGER SRI LANKA

125.21

26.38%

1,273.69

10.17

10.0

2.6

12,771.38

COMMERCIAL BANK [NV]

HNB [NV]
DIALOG TELEKOM

SRI LANKA TELECOM

PEOPLES LEASING

COMMERCIAL LEASING & FINANCE

CEYLON COLD STORES

RICHARD PIERIS
LANKA IOC

LB FINANCE
ROYAL CERAMICS
DIMO

CEYLINCO INSURANCE [V]


CEYLINCO INSURANCE [NV]

80.00

22.90%

1,257.97

15.72

18.1

4.2

22,800.00

2800.00

26.17%

1,245.79

0.44

8.5

2.2

10,640.00

JOHN KEELLS HOTELS

46.00

8.42%

1,140.90

24.80

2.0

0.2

2,254.00

HAYLEYS

75.00

5.65%

1,063.14

14.18

21.5

1.2

22,852.50

LION BREWERY
LANKA ORIX FINANCE

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 26

Features
Analysis of Various Warrants Listed on the CSE
The below table depicts a comparison of the warrants trading price with its intrinsic value (derived through the Black
Scholes Call option valuation method). The 6th column to the right depicts the difference between the intrinsic value
and the traded price. Hence, the positive figures would explain the potential for the respective warrant to further
appreciate. Thus, the negative value would denote that the warrant is overvalued at the current price (assuming the
underlying stock price to be constant). However, it is noted that the intrinsic value is derived based on the current
value of the underlying stock price, its volatility, period to maturity and the risk free rate. Hence, any adverse
movement of the mentioned assumptions would have an adverse impact on the warrant value, and any favourable
movement would positively impact the warrant value (E.g.: if in case the asset price appreciates from the existing, it
would invariably increase the value of the warrant.

Warrants Valuation

Exercise price

CLPL-W-0013
CLPL-W-0014
GREG-W-0003
GREG-W-0006
CSF-W-0021
REEF-W-0019

118.00
142.00
36.00
39.00
12.00
40.00

Share Price
(2012/12/28)

78.00
78.00
14.90
14.90
9.70
27.70

Expiry Date

25-Aug-14
25-Aug-15
24-Feb-14
24-Feb-15
31-Jul-13
15-Jun-15

Warrant Price
(2012/12/28)

6.90
5.50
3.90
4.00
2.10
4.20

Price According to Black


Scholes model (Intrinsic
value)

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Undervalued/
(Overvalued)

(6.90)
(5.50)
(3.90)
(4.00)
(2.10)
(4.20)

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 27

Commodity Prices
Date as at

07.12.12

14.12.12

21.12.12

28.12.12

107.2

107.9

110.4

111.3

0.8%

Gold (USD/Ounce)

1,701.8

1,713.1

1,648.2

1,662.0

0.8%

Copper LME (USD/Ton)

8,000.0

8,073.0

7,880.0

7,893.0

0.2%

05.12.12

12.12.12

18.12.12

25.12.12

417.08

430.32

424.96

n/a

06.12.12

13.12.12

20.12.12

27.12.12

370.0

371.0

375.0

n/a

n/a

07.12.12

14.12.12

21.12.12

28.12.12

USD

128.90

128.15

126.85

127.55

WoW %
change
0.6%

EURO

166.93

168.12

167.46

168.91

0.9%

STG (GBP)

206.76

206.92

206.35

204.61

-0.8%

1.56

1.53

1.51

1.47

-2.6%

20.69

20.58

20.36

20.37

0.05%

Brent Crude Oil (USD/Barrel)

WoW %
change

METALS

AGRI
Date as at
Tea LKR/Kg
Date as at
Rubber (RSS 1) LKR /Kg
Exchange Rates (LKR)

YEN
YUAN (CNY)

WoW %
change
n/a
WoW %
change

Source: Bloomberg, AFP, Reuters, Eurostat

OIL

Oil was on a declining trend for the first half of the week as policy makers in the U.S failed to reach a compromise
over the so-called fiscal cliff issue before the Christmas holiday. However oil futures rose towards the latter half of
the week as analysts continue to remain hopeful that policy makers will muddle through in coming up with an
acceptable solution before the year end. While supply issues in the Middle East due to tensions in Iran and the
Middle East would continue to remain in the coming year, Citigroup expects growth in oil supplies to originate mainly
from non-OPEC countries such as the U.S & Canada. Citigroup estimates a 60% YoY growth in non-OPEC contribution
to oil production, which is equivalent to an additional 900,000 barrels a day in 2013.

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 28

Commodity Prices
Gold

Gold strengthened marginally by 0.8% WoW as the yellow metal heads for a 12 th consecutive annual gain in returns.
Prices of gold have currently gained approx. 6% YTD with many analysts expecting Gold to hit USD2,000/ton in the
coming year. Analysts also expect mining stocks which had been mostly bearish in the current year to outperform in
the following year with the pickup in gold prices. Meanwhile a Bloomberg survey over the week revealed that
majority of gold traders are most bullish on gold prices in more than four months. As a result gold futures for
February rose 0.1% WoW.
Copper

Positive news out of the U.S relating to employment and housing sales resulted in a strengthening of prices of the red
metal. While new home sales rose by 4.4% YoY in November; the highest ever level in more than two years, the
weakened USD as a result of the uncertainty created over the Fiscal Cliff issue further bolstered prices. Copper
futures for March delivery traded on the COMEX rose 0.4% WoW, while a Bloomberg survey revealed that copper
investor optimism was on the rise.
USD

The greenback weakened to an eight month low against the Euro as issues pertaining to the Fiscal Cliff continued
to dominate investor sentiment. FOREX traders expect an increase in volatility of the US Dollar as the deadline for
reaching an agreement draws near. The Yen also depreciated against a basket of currencies to hit a 28 month low as
the new Japanese Government increases pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to ease monetary policy in order to
stimulate the domestic economy.
Source: Bloomberg, AFP, Reuters, Eurostat

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 29

Conclusion
2013 Outlook Towards a Rebound..

Growing importance of the CSE

The phenomenal performance of the Colombo bourse witnessed in the


immediate post war environment had garnered heightened interest by
both the government and the general public. However the over
exuberance and irrational behavior of market participants has in more
recent times led to a reassessment by both the government and the
general public of the role played by the capital markets in the
development of the economy. The government has correctly identified
that a well functioning capital market plays an essential role in economic
development. To this end, the government has made the further
development of the financial markets one of its top priorities for 2013
encompassed in its Capital Market Development Master Plan.

60%
YoY growth
108%

50%
40%

YoY growth
82%

30%
20%
10%
0%

2006

2007
Bangladesh

2008

2009

Nepal

Pakistan

2010

2011

Sri Lanka

Source: World Bank

Clear inverse relationship observed


Index

%
ASI: 7,797

9,000

25

8,000
20

7,000

6,000
15

5,000
ASI:
2,215

4,000

10

3,000

ASI: 5,419
Central bank begins relaxing
its hold on the pegged
exchange rate

2,000
1,000

ASI

Source: CSE & CBSL data

Index narrowing to more sustainable levels

Further, given that effective demand in the economys real sector is likely
to moderate during the year due to factors discussed earlier, we expect
that a relatively higher volume of surplus liquidity that is currently lying
idle among the corporate sector would enter into equity trade, causing a
shift of corporate savings towards equities. The trend would be further
assisted by the fact that high yielding spheres for large scale real
investments is moderating in the face of tight monetary and tax policy
environments as well as weak demand from export destinations. Large
scale conglomerates would hence tend to concentrate more on mergers
and acquisitions of smaller firms with the aim of concentration of supply
and capacity. It is likely that this change in the general corporate approach
towards investments would occur through large scale equity transactions.
This is to say that large scale institutional trades (crossings) would tend to
contribute more to the average daily turnover of the Colombo Stock
Exchange in 2013. Therefore, intermittent large scale buying from local
conglomerates can be expected.

Index

Source: Bloomberg

1-Sep-12

1-Jul-12

AWPR (%)

1-Nov-12

1-Jan-12

1-Mar-12

1-May-12

1-Jul-11

1-Sep-11

1-Nov-11

1-Jan-11

1-Mar-11

1-May-11

1-Jul-10

1-Sep-10

1-Nov-10

1-May-10

1-Jan-10

1-Mar-10

1-Jul-09

1-Sep-09

1-Nov-09

1-Jan-09

1-May-09

1-Nov-08

1-Mar-09

1-Jul-08

1-Sep-08

1-Jan-08

1-Mar-08

1-May-08

1-Jul-07

1-Sep-07

1-Nov-07

1-May-07

The prospects of equity trade in Sri Lanka are likely to revive from 1Q2013
onwards on the back of higher flow of liquidity into equities owing to two
main causes. The removal of the credit ceiling imposed on banks by
monetary authorities will take effect from January 2013 onwards. Hence,
in this light market interest rates could dip further on the back of higher
availability of savings for lending purposes. This would further mean that
dip in interest rates is likely to exceed the 25 basis points policy rate cut
made in December 2012. Furthermore, we expect the interest rates to
remain stable compared to the sharp volatility seen in 2012 once a
particular level of equilibrium range is achieved through the free play of
market forces. In this back drop we believe that the flow of liquidity into
Sri Lankas equities is likely to increase.

Market cap % GDP

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 30

Conclusion
In the governments budget proposal for 2013, a number of policy
measures pertaining to capital markets were implemented with the
intention of increasing investor participation in equities markets as well as
to promote underdeveloped financial instruments such as corporate
bonds and debentures. A number of policies involving the granting of tax
exemptions for newly listed firms subject to a minimum float may be an
attempt to encourage more company listings in the CSE, particularly in
sectors which are currently underrepresented in the equities market. This
may have been partly as a response to the dip in the number of new IPO
listings observed in 2011. While at the time of the budget proposal, the
government made no plans to list minority positions in any of the state
owned enterprises, the deputy finance minister had subsequently
announced that such listings may in the future become a reality. Hence
overall we expect to see a spike in the number of new listings.

Less IPO activity observed over the year


LKR mn
No of IPO's

1,600

1,400
1,200

14
12

Peoples Leasing - 2nd Largest IPO valued at


LKR 7bn lsited on the CSE

10

1,000

800
6

600

400

200

13

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2006

2007

No of listings

Avg value of IPO (LKR mn)

Source: CSE

We believe that the All Share Index will stabilize above current levels and
reach equilibrium in a better turnover regime. Hence, its our view that
the investors should take position in the fundamentally strong counters
as we expect large and medium scale activity levels to rise in 1Q2013.
We believe that sectors such as Banking, Leisure, Construction (especially
firms with a focus on government projects), Power & Energy and
Healthcare are likely to outperform in terms of future earnings potential.
However we are less certain whether the policy measures implemented
by the authorities in order to increase investor participation would be
adequate to rekindle interest amongst retail investors in the Colombo
bourse. All in all we continue to stress the fact that the multiples of Blue
Chips and other fundamentally sound counters remain attractive owing
to prolonged bearish movement, and are thus fully geared towards
meeting the fresh flow of cash due to the transfer of liquid resources to
the financial sphere of the economy.

Relatively attractive on a regional basis..


P/E (Xs)

India NIFTY

Southeast Asia MXSO

Vietnam - VNINDEX
Bangladesh -MXBD

Source: Bloomberg

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 31

Focus on Investment
Key Buys

TKYO, being the joint market leader in the cement industry, has its grinding
facility located in Trincomalee, ideally located for the rebuilding boom. TKYO, a
direct beneficiary of construction sector upturn, is in a strong position to take
advantage of increasing demand in current excess capacity. TKYO completed a
10 MW bio mass power plant which provides them significant cost advantage
together with additional boost to top line.

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

LKR

Manufacturing
X LKR 19.50

TKYO

12/29/2011

35

2/14/2012

3/29/2012

5/17/2012

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012

12/24/2012

LKR

Tokyo Cement
N LKR 28.60

Charts Sourced from Asia Wealth Research

30
25
20
15
10

TKYOX

0
12/29/2011

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012

12/24/2012

12/29/2011

2/14/2012

3/29/2012

5/17/2012

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012

PLC

250

LKR

Banking& Finance

5/17/2012

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Banking & Finance

Largest specialized leasing company in Sri Lanka, a subsidiary of Peoples Bankthe 2nd largest commercial bank of the country, a holding of 75%.Principal
business activity of the PLC is the provision of finance leasing, operating leasing,
HP facilities etc... The current financial performance of the company is sound
with an interest margin of 9% for FY2012. However, the financial sector in the
economy is facing a challenge with high interest rates and accompanied low
demand for credit. This would dampen the growth in loan volumes yet
profitability would remain satisfactory. Further, due to tense competition posed
through other finance institutions including LCBs RFCs, LSBs, the market share
of PLC would deplete but would remain as a key player in SLCs sector. Going by
these, we believe PLC is a medium to long term healthy investment to consider.

Sampath Bank
N LKR 201.00

3/29/2012

LKR

Peopless Leasing Company


N LKR 13.30

2/14/2012

200
Bank will continue its aggressive expansion to ensure its spread of service
through the island. As the pioneer in blending IT with banking, the company will
revamp its existing products and innovate new customer focus products. And
the company is well poised to take advantage in the prevailing economic boom
in the country. However the interest rates in the economy are showing an
upward trend consequent to the increased policy rates in the beginning of
February 2012, yet the performance of SAMP would not get largely affected due
to availability of various funding avenues and unimpeded credit demand.
Recently, the banks national long-term rating was affirmed by Fitch Ratings at
AA-(lka) yet, Outlook have been downgraded to Stable from positive.

150
100
50

SAMP
0

John Keells Holdings


N LKR 219.90

Diversified

250

3/29/2012

5/17/2012

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012 12/24/2012

LKR

12/29/2011 2/14/2012

200
The sustained performance of the group during 1QFY13 inspite of its high
exposure to macro economic shocks is a testament to the firms commitment
towards value creation whilst maintaining a healthy balance sheet.Going
forward, with the growth in GDP, per capita income and the increase in tourist
arrivals we anticipate the consumer retail and the leisure sector to perform
admirably.

150
100
50

JKH
0
12/29/2011 2/14/2012

3/29/2012

5/17/2012

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012 12/24/2012

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 32

CIC Holdings
N LKR 63.20

Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals


X LKR 56.00

120

LKR

Focus on Investment
100
80
60

40
20
CIC
0
12/29/2011

90
80

2/14/2012

3/29/2012

5/17/2012

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012

12/24/2012

2/14/2012

3/29/2012

5/17/2012

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012

12/24/2012

2/14/2012

3/29/2012

5/17/2012

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012

LKR

CIC is considered as the only seed to shelf agricultural company in Sri


Lanka.The Company also has foot prints in consumer and pharmecuitical
industries, Paints, Industrial raw material and Packaging. Acquisition of dairy
farms in north & east region coupled with CICs plans to expand overseas will
strengthens companys earnings in the medium to long term.

70
60
50
40

30
20
10

CICX

0
12/29/2011

140

Banking & Finance


X LKR 90.50

120
100

LKR

Commercial Bank
N LKR 103.00

80
60
40

20

COMB

0
12/29/2011

120

100
80
60

40
20

COMBX

180

Banking & Finance


X- LKR 113.90

160

2/14/2012

3/29/2012

5/17/2012

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012

2/14/2012

3/29/2012

5/17/2012

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012

12/24/2012

LKR

12/29/2011

Hatton National Bank


N-LKR 147.00

12/24/2012

LKR

CommercialBank is the largest private sector commercial bank with an asset base
of LKR441.1 bn as at end 2011, and operates with above 500 ATM points, which
is also the largest single network in the country. Towards the future, bank is well
positioned with capital, consequent to the recently concluded Rights issue of
circa LKR5 bn enabling the bank to extend its credit further. The spike in interest
rates in the economy consequent to the increased policy rates in the beginning of
February 2012 and the limit imposed on credit growth, there would be pressure
posed on performance, yet the bank is well diversified with differing loan
products and income avenues which would minimize impact from the aforesaid
limitations.

140
120
100
80

60
40
20

HNB

0
12/29/2011

140
120
100

80
60

40
20
HNBX

LB Finance
N LKR 148.00
.0

Banking & Finance

LB Finance is a leading registered finance company engaged in Leasing and


Hire Purchase business. Company is operating with a total asset base of LKR 42
bn as at end FY2012, and an island wide branch net work of 26. With
satisfactory liquidity levels and capital adequacies, company is poised to take
advantage in any growth in credit demand. However, with the recent rise in
interest rates we do not expect an exceptional performance in coming
quarters, yet company would stay ahead of other finance companies
consequent to its strong fundamentals, high interest margins, high ROE
etc...Therefore we rate LFIN as a worthwhile investment with a time span of
medium to long term.

180
160

2/ 14/ 2012

3/ 29/ 2012

5/ 17/ 2012

6/ 29/ 2012

8/ 14/ 2012

9/ 26/ 2012

11/ 8/ 2012

12/ 24/ 2012

LKR

12/ 29/ 2011

12/24/2012

LKR

HNB is the second largest private commercial bank with a total asset base of
LKR388.6 bn as at end 2011, and number one private bank in terms of branches
with a strong network of over 240. Bank is well positioned with its capital
consequent to fresh capital raised through a rights issue amounting to LKR 6
bn. HNB which has a relatively larger retail deposit base is projected to enjoy
higher interest spreads and would also benefit from the growth in SME lending.
However, the spike in interest rates consequent to the increased policy rates in
the beginning of February 2012 would pose pressure on performance, yet the
banks strong positioning in the sector would combat the performance showing
a significant impact.

140
120
100
80

60
40
20

LFIN

0
12/29/2011 2/14/2012 3/29/2012 5/17/2012 6/29/2012 8/14/2012 9/26/2012 11/8/2012 12/24/2012

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 33

Piramal Glass
N LKR 6.00

Manufacturing

LKR

Focus on Investment
7
The company is the sole glass manufacture in Sri Lanka who supplies
glasscontainers to thefood and beverages, cosmetics, perfumery and the
pharmaceutical sectors.
The company at present virtually holds a
monopolistic position in the Local market with an approximately 97% market
share. Further, with their state of the art manufacturing plant in Horana,
coupled with the growing demand derived from the rapid developments
taking place within the Sri Lankan economy, the company is likely to deliver
better returns to its shareholders.

6
5
4

3
2
1

GLAS

9
8

3/29/2012

5/17/2012

LKR

12/29/2011 2/14/2012

7
6
5
4

3
2
1

GLAS

0
11/3/2011

12/19/2011

2/1/2012

3/20/2012

5/8/2012

6/20/2012

8/3/2012

9/17/2012

10/30/2012

6/29/2012

8/14/2012

9/26/2012

11/8/2012 12/24/2012

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 34

Stock Exchange Anouncements


As at 28th December 2012
Rights issues
Company

Proportion / Issue Price

Pelwatte Sugar

01 for 04 @ LKR18.00

Bimputh Finance
Colonial Motors

01 for 03 @ LKR 11.50


01 for 06 @ LKR 130.00

XR date

Last Date Of
Acceptance &
Payment

Trading of rights
Commences on

* Rights issue would be delayed until the outcome of the


proposed Act with regard to acquisition of its land by the
State is known.

20-12-2012
17-12-2012

15-01-2013
09-01-2013

04-01-2013
31-12-2012

SUB- DIVISION OF SHARES


Company

Description

Sub-Division
based on
shareholding as
at

Period of dealing
suspension

Date of
commencement
of trading

Coco Lanka Voting and


Nonvoting ( Subsequent
to Right Issue)

01 existing share to
be sub-divided into
02 shares

03-01-2013

04-01-2013 to 08-01-2013

09-01-2013

Colonial Motors
(Subsequent to Right
Issue)

07 shares to be
sub-divided into 10
shares

12-02-2013

13-02-2013 to 15-02-2013

18-02-2013

SCRIP DIVIDENDS
Company
Chilaw Finance

Proportion
01 for 17.7778 existing Shares held

Consideration

XD Date

LKR 12/ Per share

09-01-2013

Sri Lanka Focus

28th December 2012

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM 35

Stock Exchange Anouncements


Dividend Announcements

Company

Dividend per share

Chevron Lubricants Lanka


Onally Holdings
Ceylon Tobacco Company

Fourth Interim Dividend of LKR3.00


Interim Dividend of LKR1.00
Fourth Interim Dividend of LKR4.30

XD Date
28-12-2012
31-12-2012
09-01-2013

Payment Date
09-01-2013
09-01-2013
21-01-2013

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM

36

Valuation Guide
Company

YE

SH(mn)

M.CAP(Bn)

Price
FY10

Earnings (LKR mn)


FY11
FY12
FY13E

FY14E

FY10

FY11

EPS
FY12

FY13E

FY14E

FY10

FY11

PE
FY12

FY13E

FY14E

DPS

DY

ROE

BVPS

PBV

FINANCIAL SERVICES
HNB
HNB(NV)
Commercial Bank
Commercial Bank(NV)
Sampath Bank
NDB Bank

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

317.65
79.60
780.01
53.47
162.74
164.20

46.7
9.1
80.3
4.8
32.7
22.8

147.0
113.9
103.0
90.5
201.0
139.0

4,786.8
4,786.8
5,508.0
5,508.0
3,484.5
2,102.6

6,148.8
6,148.8
8,094.7
8,094.7
4,150.6
2,705.5

8,265.4
8,265.4
9,689.9
9,689.9
5,422.9
3,184.6

11,625.6
11,625.6
12,960.3
12,960.3
8,146.1
4,973.1

12.0
12.0
6.6
6.6
21.4
12.8

15.5
15.5
9.7
9.7
25.5
16.5

20.8
20.8
11.6
11.6
33.3
19.4

25.2
25.2
12.9
12.9
41.9
24.3

29.3
29.3
15.5
15.5
50.1
30.3

12.2
9.5
15.6
13.7
9.4
10.9

9.5
7.4
10.6
9.3
7.9
8.4

7.1
5.5
8.9
7.8
6.0
7.2

5.8
4.5
8.0
7.0
4.8
5.7

5.0
3.9
6.6
5.8
4.0
4.6

7.50
7.50
6.00
6.00
7.91
3.50

5.1%
6.6%
5.8%
6.6%
3.9%
2.5%

15%
15%
18%
18%
20%
16%

101.6
101.6
53.5
53.5
128.0
104.1

1.4
1.1
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.3

CONGLOMERATES
John Keells Hold.
Aitken Spence Hold.

Mar
Mar

851.51
406.00

187.2
48.7

219.9
120.0

5,201.5
2,059.6

8,245.6
2,536.0

9,775.0 10,975.6 12,425.0


3,709.2 3,788.5 5,089.4

6.1
5.1

9.7
6.2

11.5
9.1

12.9
9.3

14.6
12.5

36.0
23.7

22.7
19.2

19.2
13.1

17.1
12.9

15.1
9.6

3.00
0.63

1.4%
0.5%

14%
15%

83.6
61.4

2.6
2.0

FOOD & BEVERAGE


Distilleries
Ceylon Tobacco

Mar
Dec

300.00
187.32

49.8
153.6

166.0
820.0

2,135.7
5,097.1

8,124.0
6,568.8

5,675.4 6,456.3 8,918.3


8,194.5 10,122.7 12,358.4

7.1
27.2

27.1
35.1

18.9
43.7

21.5
54.0

29.7
66.0

23.3
30.1

6.1
23.4

8.8
18.7

7.7
15.2

5.6
12.4

3.00
43.31

1.8%
5.3%

15%
184%

122.2
19.0

1.4
43.1

TOURISM
Asian Hotels & Properties Mar
Aitken Spence Hotel
Mar

442.8
336.3

33.6
24.7

75.9
73.5

629.8
523.8

1,774.5
1,034.1

2,150.6
1,395.3

2,458.9
2,190.8

2,764.1
2,471.8

1.4
1.6

4.0
3.1

4.9
4.1

5.6
6.5

6.2
7.4

52.7
47.2

18.7
23.9

15.6
17.7

13.7
11.3

12.2
10.0

2.00
0.00

2.6%
0.0%

14%
13%

33.8
33.1

2.2
2.2

10,003.5
10,003.5
10,791.3
10,791.3
6,818.3
3,997.5

MANUFACTURING
Chevron Lubricants
Tokyo (V)
Tokyo (NV)
Piramal Glass

Dec
Mar
Mar
Mar

120.00
202.50
101.25
950.09

24.2
5.8
2.0
5.7

202.0
28.6
19.5
6.0

1,501.3
369.3
369.3
(61.1)

2,000.6
855.7
855.7
578.7

2,182.7
973.2
973.2
686.4

2,021.9
1,456.0
1,456.0
758.0

2,126.2
1,505.0
1,505.0
749.0

12.5
1.2
1.2
(0.1)

16.7
2.8
2.8
0.6

18.2
3.2
3.2
0.7

16.8
4.8
4.8
0.8

17.7
5.0
5.0
0.8

16.1
23.5
16.0
N/A

12.1
10.2
6.9
9.9

11.1
8.9
6.1
8.3

12.0
6.0
4.1
7.5

11.4
5.8
3.9
7.6

9.00
1.00
1.00
0.36

4.5%
3.5%
5.1%
6.0%

63%
15%
15%
21%

26.3
20.7
20.7
3.4

7.7
1.4
0.9
1.8

Chemical &
Pharmaceutical
CIC Holdings (V)
CIC Holdings (NV)

Mar
Mar

72.90
21.87
94.77

4,607.3
1,224.7

63.2
56.0

589.6
589.6

926.6
926.6

916.5
916.5

820.0
820.0

1,405.2
1,405.2

6.2
6.2

9.8
9.8

9.7
9.7
.

8.7
8.7

14.8
14.8

10.2
9.0

6.5
5.7

6.5
5.8

7.3
6.5

4.3
3.8

3.20
3.20

5.1%
5.7%

12%
12%

77.5
77.5

0.8
0.7

25.00
23.75
32.00

2.6
1.7
2.4

104.0
73.2
74.0

376.1
146.7
323.2

837.7
409.3
667.8

681.5
374.6
438.6

823.7
404.7
569.3

892.1
454.4
620.9

15.0
6.2
10.1

33.5
17.2
20.9

27.3
15.8
13.7

32.9
17.0
17.8

35.7
19.1
19.4

6.9
11.9
7.3

3.1
4.2
3.5

3.8
4.6
5.4

3.2
4.3
4.2

2.9
3.8
3.8

7.50
4.50
2.00

7.2%
6.1%
2.7%

24%
24%
18%

115.6
65.8
77.2

0.9
1.1
1.0

POWER & ENERGY


Mar
335.00
Mar
52.00

8.7
1.0

26.0
18.3

243.1
243.1

852.7
852.7

930.3
930.3

968.0
968.0

1,185.1
1,185.1

0.6
0.6

2.2
2.2

2.4
2.4

2.5
2.5

3.1
3.1

41.4
29.1

11.8
8.3

10.8
7.6

10.4
7.3

8.5
6.0

1.50
1.50

5.8%
8.2%

15%
15%

19.1
17.5

1.4
1.0

PLANTATIONS
Kegalle Plantations
Mar
Namunukula Plantations Mar
Kotagala Plantations
Mar

Laugfs Gas (Voting)


Laugfs Gas (Non voting)

*Companies with their financial year ending in December would carry forecasted figure for FY12.

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

Broad Market
Guide
Company

MARKET
FINANCIAL SERVICES
Banking
COMMERCIAL BANK [V]
COMMERCIAL BANK [NV]
DFCC BANK
HNB [V]
HNB [NV]
NATIONS TRUST BANK
NDB
PAN ASIA BANK
SAMPATH BANK
SEYLAN BANK [V]
SEYLAN BANK [NV]
HDFC
UNION BANK
Finance Co.s & / Merchant Banks
ASIA CAPITAL
ALLIANCE FINANCE
ARPICO FINANCE
CENTRAL FINANCE
NATION LANKA
LOLC
LB FINANCE
MERCHANT BANK
PEOPLE'S MERCHANT
SMB LEASING PLC [V]
SMB LEASING PLC [NV]
THE FINANCE
THE FINANCE[NV]
SOFTLOGIC FINANCE
PEOPLE'S FINANCE
VALLIBEL FINANCE
SINHAPUTRA
SINGER FINANCE
BIMPUTH LANKA INVESTMENTS
TRADE FINANCE

Year
End

Price
(LKR)

1W(%)

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM

Price Performance
1M(%)
1Q(%)

Shares
Mn

Trailing
ROE

BVPS

16.15%
18.05%

COMB
COMB
DFCC
HNB
HNB
NTB
NDB
PABC
SAMP
SEYB
SEYB
HDFC
UBC

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB

D
D
M
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D

103.00
90.50
111.60
147.00
113.90
55.00
139.00
19.00
201.00
55.20
35.20
50.60
13.80

0.72
2.80
1.36
2.80
0.88
1.01
(0.36)
0.57
1.60
2.22

3.00
0.56
3.81
2.08
1.91
3.77
4.61
5.56
8.06
(1.78)
3.83
4.53
4.55

(11.21)
(3.72)
(8.59)
(11.45)
(1.49)
(11.15)
(7.43)
(9.09)
(6.82)
(19.97)
(2.22)
(22.44)
(18.34)

780.01
53.47
265.10
317.65
79.60
230.61
164.20
295.04
162.74
173.33
164.75
64.71
349.25

ACAP
ALLI
ARPI
CFIN
CSF
LOLC
LFIN
MBSL
PMB
SEMB
SEMB
TFC
TFC
CRL
SMLL
VFIN
SFL
SFIN
BLI
TFIL

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
MainB
DiriSaviB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB

M
M
M
M
M
M
M
D
M
D
D
M
M
M
D
M
M
M
M
M

30.30
730.00
84.00
161.00
9.70
54.00
148.00
20.50
14.70
1.00
0.50
19.30
6.30
24.00
34.50
31.30
77.80
14.00
19.10
12.00

1.00
3.54
(10.90)
(0.62)
5.43
2.67
(0.54)
4.06
(2.00)
11.11
5.65
12.50
2.64
(5.12)
3.79
(6.83)
4.86

1.00
3.24
(13.23)
(0.25)
14.12
14.68
5.71
5.13
(3.92)
11.11
8.09
21.15
(18.37)
0.29
0.32
(5.47)
4.58
(3.05)
6.30

(12.43)
(6.34)
(22.78)
(10.78)
(27.61)
6.73
(1.60)
(18.00)
(7.55)
(9.09)
(20.00)
(32.97)
(25.88)
(22.08)
11.29
(22.25)
(11.89)
(13.84)
(31.79)
(1.27)

110.00
2.43
4.46
104.88
249.91
475.20
69.26
135.00
67.50
1191.77
614.07
57.97
100.00
37.45
74.58
41.55
6.30
165.33
20.20
56.80

18.78%
18.78%
12.27%
16.25%
16.25%
19.02%
16.44%
19.69%
19.83%
11.84%
11.84%
10.33%
5.29%
18.49%
na
31.87%
13.11%
20.15%
na
19.06%
39.52%
3.33%
na
3.99%
3.99%
na
na
9.66%
20.07%
32.49%
7.85%
12.49%
4.31%
17.04%

61.41
61.41
98.48
111.12
111.12
41.57
112.61
13.10
148.23
56.91
56.91
36.25
15.20
6.92
633.06
88.53
140.53
1.74
43.37
65.30
22.06
13.20
0.53
0.53
-29.22
-29.22
29.77
25.18
18.61
123.96
10.85
11.91
10.82

Net Profits
4 Qtrs trailing
175,999.61
54,144.02
33,196.64
9,611.80
9,611.80
3,203.82
7,171.46
7,171.46
1,823.67
3,039.55
760.76
4,784.49
2,278.10
2,278.10
242.35
280.65
16,673.14
(553.02)
490.34
51.78
2,970.20
(289.83)
3,928.29
1,787.02
99.25
(149.66)
38.19
38.19
(981.80)
(981.80)
107.71
376.87
251.29
61.27
224.00
10.36
104.71

Sep'12
48,293.01
13,682.61
7,943.94
2,303.20
2,303.20
819.13
1,676.38
1,676.38
566.53
678.77
195.40
1,044.53
589.19
589.19
0.01
70.79
5,132.62
(145.25)
144.21
10.38
796.33
(81.05)
605.22
429.15
30.48
1.28
27.83
27.83
(357.76)
(357.76)
55.33
176.67
66.92
31.19
61.19
3.94
71.12

Net Profits (mn)


Jun12
Mar12
32,701.75 53,598.01
11,388.57 15,014.04
8,152.55
8,578.58
2,469.90
2,849.70
2,469.90
2,849.70
682.38
765.47
1,707.60
1,533.32
1,707.60
1,533.32
487.50
405.70
641.28
720.87
159.63
196.55
1,359.21
1,494.20
612.27
412.49
612.27
412.49
5.36
125.36
27.42
74.92
2,525.91
5,878.58
(139.98)
(72.52)
110.77
117.71
18.18
14.90
785.24
648.67
(100.43)
(80.37)
656.84
1,992.41
432.96
487.04
6.67
16.52
(36.87)
(110.23)
9.91
6.63
9.91
6.63
(393.92)
(212.61)
(393.92)
(212.61)
52.38
200.21
61.74
57.03
30.08
59.43
46.04
13.37
53.16

Dec11
43,081.79
14,230.58
8,521.56
1,989.00
1,989.00
936.83
2,254.16
2,254.16
363.94
998.63
209.19
886.54
664.15
664.15
111.62
107.52
3,307.81
(195.27)
117.65
8.33
739.97
(27.98)
673.82
437.87
45.57
(3.84)
(6.18)
(6.18)
(17.50)
(17.50)

65.60
57.34

37

Trailing
EPS

Trailing
PE

PBV

Market Cap
(mn)

12.24
9.47

1.98
1.71

2,153,900.00

11.53
11.53
12.09
18.05
18.05
7.91
18.51
2.58
29.40
6.74
6.74
3.75
0.80

8.9
7.8
9.2
8.1
6.3
7.0
7.5
7.4
6.8
8.2
5.2
13.5
17.2

1.7
1.5
1.1
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.0
0.6
1.4
0.9

80,341.47
4,839.37
29,584.90
46,694.56
9,066.02
12,683.40
22,824.06
5,605.78
32,710.07
9,568.00
5,799.08
3,274.35
4,819.65

na
201.78
11.60
28.32
na
8.27
25.80
0.74
na
0.02
0.02
na
na
2.88
5.05
6.05
9.73
1.35
0.51
1.84

na
3.6
7.2
5.7
na
6.5
5.7
27.9
na
47.3
23.6
na
na
8.3
6.8
5.2
8.0
10.3
37.2
6.5

4.4
1.2
0.9
1.1
5.6
1.2
2.3
0.9
1.1
1.9
0.9
-0.7
-0.2
0.8
1.4
1.7
0.6
1.3
1.6
1.1

3,333.00
1,773.90
374.85
16,886.22
2,424.15
25,660.80
10,250.06
2,767.50
992.25
1,191.77
307.03
1,118.75
630.00
898.89
2,572.91
1,300.53
489.82
2,314.67
385.82
681.60

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

Broad Market
Guide
Company

CITIZENS DEVELOPMENT FINANCE


CITIZENS DEVELOPMENT FINANCE [NV]
SENKADAGALA FINANCE
SWARNAMAHAL FINANCE
CHILAW FINANCE LIMITED
COMMERCIAL CREDIT LIMITED
MERCANTILE INVESTMENTS
MULTI FINANCE
LANKA ORIX FINANCE
ABANS FINANCIAL SERVICES
CENTRAL INV & FINPLC
ASSOCIATED MOTOR FINANCE PLC
CAPITAL ALLIANCE FINANCE LIMITED
NANDA INVESTMENTS AND FINANCE
SOFTLOGIC CAPITAL LIMITED
ENTRUST
PEOPLES LEASING
ASIA ASSET FINANCE LIMITED
ORIENT FINANCIAL SERVICE
SANASA DEVELOPMENT BANK
COMMERCIAL LEASING & FINANCE
GEORGE STEUART FINANCE
Insurance
AMANA TAKAFUL INS.
ASIAN ALLIANCE
CEYLINCO INSURANCE [V]
CEYLINCO INSURANCE [NV]
AVIVA NDB
HNB ASSURANCE
UNION ASSURANCE
JANASHAKTHI
Venture Capital Co.s
CAPITAL DEV & INV COMPANY
FIRST CAPITAL
LANKA VENTURES

Price Performance
1W(%)
1M(%)
2.50
(3.53)
0.33
3.79
3.33
3.33
2.86
(2.70)
0.62
8.67
(0.36)
(5.19)
15.15
(7.77)
8.87
4.88
16.22
(6.69)
(2.99)
(18.75)
5.88
20.00
4.41
12.70
5.56
18.75
0.76
20.00
4.00
18.18
10.39
8.28
1.97
0.78
5.56
11.76
-

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM

CDB
CDB
SFCL
SFS
CFL
COCR
MERC
MFL
LOFC
AFSL
CIFL
AMF
CALF
NIFL
SCAP
ESL
PLC
AAF
ORIN
SDB
CLC
GSF

MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB

Year
Price
End
(LKR)
M
41.00
M
30.10
M
50.00
M
3.10
M
14.40
M
16.00
M
2200.00
M
27.40
M
3.80
M
35.60
M
4.30
M
336.00
M
19.50
M
7.20
M
7.10
M
19.00
M
13.30
M
2.70
M
17.00
M
78.00
M
3.80
M
552.50

1Q(%)
(4.21)
(8.79)
(39.22)
(24.21)
(2.98)
(25.95)
(17.39)
(7.53)
(41.10)
(23.55)
(28.83)
(15.29)
1.43
(24.90)
(5.71)
(18.75)
(1.73)
(14.63)
(15.56)
-

Shares
Mn
46.30
8.01
53.37
500.00
28.08
218.07
3.01
22.46
2800.00
37.00
83.43
5.61
33.92
100.72
299.20
33.00
1560.00
559.47
115.63
25.18
6377.71
22.50

Trailing
ROE
25.68%
25.68%
34.27%
26.83%
10.43%
61.41%
4.64%
0.12%
22.09%
13.82%
na
29.16%
5.69%
8.38%
na
1.48%
18.31%
7.88%
24.42%
9.91%
10.15%
7.24%

BVPS
45.67
45.67
33.57
1.01
11.47
5.70
1892.02
19.55
1.89
11.66
8.07
101.32
7.05
5.17
5.62
20.02
12.26
1.26
6.23
123.34
1.13
15.51

ATL
AAIC
CINS
CINS
CTCE
HASU
UAL
JINS

DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB

D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D

1.70
90.00
815.00
337.00
329.90
50.90
84.50
10.90

6.25
1.12
1.21
0.30
3.38
6.05
0.96
2.88

13.33
15.38
1.60
6.95
2.93
10.43
1.33
5.94

1.12
(0.46)
1.02
(11.96)
(3.05)
(20.85)
(4.46)

1000.00
37.50
20.00
6.41
30.00
50.00
85.71
363.00

na
2.21%
12.62%
12.62%
23.66%
21.28%
25.44%
16.56%

0.89
22.86
425.89
425.89
105.30
32.95
33.38
8.65

CDIC
CFVF
LVEN

MainB
MainB
MainB

D
M
M

436.20
12.30
32.80

(7.19)
5.13
-

6.70
7.54

(9.09)
(18.00)
0.92

43.86
101.25
50.00

9.23%
na
24.17%

127.78
12.34
18.49

Net Profit
4Qtrs
636.84
636.84
613.96
135.82
33.60
763.07
264.15
0.52
1,171.41
59.63
(28.41)
165.68
13.61
43.67
(533.81)
9.75
3,502.00
55.44
175.89
307.79
730.30
25.25
3,715.04
(68.83)
18.90
1,419.35
1,419.35
747.30
350.57
727.80
519.94
559.21
516.98
(181.19)
223.41

Sep'12
148.50
148.50
178.10
71.65
12.42
270.32
416.78
(13.68)
543.10
27.55
(31.16)
73.79
5.77
12.26
(172.30)
56.55
806.00
36.00
88.62
65.36
594.70
15.12
384.35

160.50
160.50
103.09
54.86
65.90
221.70
118.53
73.04
30.13

Net
Jun'12
97.04
97.04
136.29

0.41

710.00

Profits
Mar'12
234.27
234.27
153.74
64.17
21.18
492.75
(152.64)
14.20
628.31
32.08
0.83
91.88
7.84
31.40
(361.51)
(46.80)
1,154.00
19.44
87.27

111.65

Dec'11
157.03
157.03
145.84

1.52
79.92

832.00

196.14
135.60
10.13

490.68
17.08
(25.82)
109.16
109.16
99.99
54.89
71.61
163.77
219.43
145.90
33.95
39.59

389.22

220.66
220.66
63.35
28.95
76.27
167.65
88.69
(73.30)
152.26

2,450.79
(85.91)
44.73
929.03
929.03
480.87
211.87
514.02
356.17
(49.58)
163.86
(214.88)
1.44

38

Trailing
EPS
11.73
11.73
11.50
0.27
1.20
3.50
87.87
0.02
0.42
1.61
0.00
29.54
0.40
0.43

Trailing
PE
3.5
2.6
4.3
11.4
12.0
4.6
25.0
1179.0
9.1
22.1
na
11.4
48.6
16.6

PBV

Mkt Cap Mn

0.9
0.7
1.5
3.1
1.3
2.8
1.2
1.4
2.0
3.1
0.5
3.3
2.8
1.4

2.24
0.10
1.52
na
0.11
na

5.9
27.2
11.2
na
33.2
na

1.1
2.1
2.7
na
3.4
na

1,898.27
240.98
2,668.40
1,550.00
404.41
3,489.19
6,613.20
615.46
10,640.00
1,317.20
358.73
1,884.41
661.45
725.16
2,124.32
627.00
20,748.00
1,510.57
1,965.63
1,963.68
24,235.30
12,431.25

70.97
221.27
24.91
7.01
8.49
1.43

11.5
1.5
13.2
7.3
10.0
7.6

1.9
0.8
3.1
1.5
2.5
1.3

1,700.00
3,375.00
16,300.00
2,161.68
9,897.00
2,545.00
7,242.86
3,956.70

11.79
na
4.47

37.0
na
7.3

3.4
1.0
1.8

19,129.55
1,245.38
1,640.00

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

Broad Market
Guide
Company

Year
End

Price
(LKR)

Price Performance
1W(%)
1M(%)
2.11
9.48
(4.90)
0.21
(11.11)
3.22
2.46
(0.09)
3.36
2.37
16.35
0.28
2.86
2.43
12.60
3.05
2.28
13.96
4.00
8.81
2.88
5.78
4.86
6.30
1.82
11.33
(0.93)
13.18
3.44
17.65
4.75
19.14
4.70
12.94
3.90
4.17
9.02
20.91

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM

1Q(%)
(17.07)
(11.71)
11.11
(5.74)
(3.12)
17.33
(41.37)
(34.30)
(15.15)
3.56
16.74
(0.13)
(1.27)
17.28
(1.33)
20.00
(24.32)
4.70
(20.13)
(16.67)
(21.76)

Shares
Mn
16.00
224.00
20.99
95.04
20.00
187.32
21.60
1.80
2.75
300.00
0.96
25.50
31.40
80.00
40.00
53.73
23.55
561.75
30.00
282.21
66.43

Trailing
ROE
28.49%
22.92%
11.56%
28.56%
32.18%
29.44%
179.64%
10.91%
10.91%
8.96%
15.46%
18.34%
7.89%
10.89%
22.90%
6.36%
93.78%
na
18.76%
8.22%
3.74%
6.54%
9.81%
1.44%
7.70%
7.70%
19.00%
3.70%
10.23%
10.23%
9.78%
5.88%
28.10%
17.11%
24.28%

BEVERAGE FOOD AND TOBACCO


BAIRAHA FARMS
CARGILLS
CEYLON BREWERY
CEYLON COLD STORES
CEYLON TEA SERVICES
CEYLON TOBACCO
COCO LANKA [V]
COCO LANKA [NV]
CONVENIENCE FOOD
DISTILLERIES
HARISCHANDRA MILLS
KEELLS FOOD PRODUCTS
KOTMALE HOLDINGS
LION BREWERY
LANKA MILK FOODS
NESTLE LANKA
THREE ACRE FARMS
RENUKA AGRI
TEA SMALLHOLDERS
RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS LTD
HVA FOODS

BFL
CARG
BREW
CCS
CTEA
CTC
COCO
COCO
SOY
DIST
HARI
KFP
LAMB
LION
LMF
NEST
TAFL
RAL
TSML
RWSL
HVA

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB

M
M
M
M
M
D
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
D
D
M
M
M
M

150.00
145.50
400.00
125.00
665.00
820.00
35.50
29.80
135.00
166.00
2599.50
75.00
38.80
285.00
96.20
1,500.00
52.30
4.70
48.00
2.50
13.40

CHEMICALS & PHARMACEUTICALS


CHEMANEX
CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES [V]
CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES [NV]
HAYCARB
INDUSTRIAL ASPHALTS
J.L. MORISON [V]
J.L. MORISON [NV]
LANKEM CEYLON
SINGALANKA
MULLERS
UNION CHEMICALS
PC PHARMA

CHMX
CIC
CIC X
HAYC
ASPH
MORI
MORI
LCEY
SING
MULL
UCAR
PCP

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB

M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
D

75.00
63.20
56.00
175.00
230.00
181.10
119.40
160.30
102.60
1.80
460.00
10.10

3.37
1.76
1.94
2.52
4.86
(0.49)
2.18
7.06
16.91
6.25
1.00

3.26
(3.85)
(0.16)
2.03
2.94
7.98
(2.11)
(2.60)
12.06
18.39
6.25
(0.22)
(1.94)

(17.07)
(24.77)
(24.31)
(13.75)
(0.57)
(23.55)
(12.09)
(10.08)
(21.65)
(13.81)
(22.73)
(23.32)
(21.09)

15.75
72.90
21.87
29.71
0.67
5.81
1.74
24.00
5.54
283.00
1.50
101.00

CONSTRUCTIONS
COLOMBO DOCKYARD
LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS
MTD WALKERS
ACCESS ENGINEERING LIMITED

DOCK
LDEV
KAPI
AEL

MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB

D
M
M
M

219.80
7.60
26.40
18.20

1.19
0.94
7.14
5.60
0.56

1.29
(0.92)
17.19
22.22
-

(13.60)
(6.11)
(7.41)
(26.46)
(16.97)

71.86
60.00
114.36
1000.00

18.54%
21.91%
na
1.47%

BVPS

100.50
34.22
136.74
77.17
372.76
24.20
61.85
61.85
98.07
133.86
614.26
57.77
21.45
68.66
53.41
52.59
35.18
3.41
21.92
2.66
7.48

Net Profit
4Qtrs
25,832.26
368.59
886.56
819.51
2,359.74
2,194.96
8,145.00
157.95
157.95
24.18
6,209.77
108.12
116.29
73.34
1,257.97
135.79
2,649.72
(149.28)
359.35
54.07
28.12
32.51

Sep'12
6,377.65
18.50
81.07
169.09
179.40
456.20
2,300.00
39.80
39.80
3.90
1,616.60
22.33
4.97
16.12
314.53
78.55
798.13
3.57
198.72
30.62
20.02
25.54

Net
Jun'12
6,001.66
50.08
245.79
151.14
250.90
427.46
2,405.00
36.79
36.79
(0.17)
1,461.80
19.49
15.23
27.34
313.42
43.98
784.17
(254.68)

80.60
76.36
76.36
123.20
10.99
252.97
252.97
153.92
54.16
0.61
192.15
2.73

2,012.42
18.22
556.91
556.91
695.61
2.63
195.34
195.34
361.44
17.64
48.41
49.31
66.90

395.29
9.86
48.63
48.63
243.24
0.47
36.52
36.52
(11.17)
27.83
13.43
5.94
20.54

127.64
(6.14)
(17.32)
(17.32)
179.15
0.55
25.17
25.17
(72.66)
(3.21)
8.74
13.37

470.74
(8.49)
155.61
155.61
132.72
1.11
81.41
81.41
42.27
(13.77)
19.06
14.47
46.36

140.53
14.02
31.79
11.18

2,702.47
2,212.59
(329.17)
53.54
765.52

1,218.16
343.17
(26.82)
89.54
812.27

420.13
450.98
18.04
(48.89)

1,159.69
745.17
(250.85)
(100.14)
765.52

23.92

Profits
Mar'12
8,265.38
149.99
322.24
92.39
1,546.06
834.87
1,489.0
18.61
18.61
5.43
2,857.87
42.74
45.00
7.95
186.85
(36.49)
461.82
64.81
160.62
0.56
8.10
6.98

39

PBV

Mkt Cap Mn

23.04
3.96
39.05
24.83
109.75
43.48
6.75
6.75
8.79
20.70
112.65
4.56
2.34
15.72
3.39
49.32
na
0.64
1.80
0.10
0.49

Trailing
PE
15.27
6.5
36.8
10.2
5.0
6.1
18.9
5.3
4.4
15.4
8.0
23.1
16.4
16.6
18.1
28.3
30.4
na
7.3
26.6
25.1
27.4

4.35
1.5
4.3
2.9
1.6
1.8
33.9
0.6
0.5
1.4
1.2
4.2
1.3
1.8
4.2
1.8
28.5
1.5
1.4
2.2
0.9
1.8

2,400.00
32,592.00
8,395.24
11,880.00
13,300.00
153,605.48
766.80
53.64
371.25
49,800.00
2,495.00
1,912.50
1,218.32
22,800.00
3,847.81
80,588.19
1,231.40
2,640.23
1,440.00
705.52
890.14

1,018.75
22.99
369.99
369.99
140.50
0.51
52.24
52.24
403.01
6.79
7.19
15.53
na

1.16
5.88
5.88
23.41
3.95
25.87
25.87
15.06
3.18
0.17
32.87
0.66

9.56
64.8
10.8
9.5
7.5
58.2
7.0
4.6
10.6
32.2
10.5
14.0
15.2

0.94
0.9
0.8
0.7
1.4
20.9
0.7
0.5
1.0
1.9
3.0
2.4
3.7

1,181.25
4,607.28
1,224.72
5,199.67
153.31
1,051.88
208.05
3,847.20
568.49
509.40
690.00
1,020.10

716.77
673.27
(69.54)
113.03

30.79
na
0.47

7.13
7.1
na
56.4

1.32
1.6
0.5
0.8

Dec'11
5,187.57
150.03
237.46
406.88
383.38
476.43
1,951.00
62.75
62.75
15.02
273.50
23.57
51.09
21.93
443.18
49.75
605.60
37.03
(1.03)

Trailing
EPS

15,794.59
456.00
3,019.03
18,200.00

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

Broad Market
Guide
Company

Year
End

Price
(LKR)

DIVERSIFIED
AITKEN SPENCE
CARSON CUMBERBATCH
CEYLON THEATRES
COLOMBO FORT LAND
FINLAYS COLOMBO
HAYLEYS
HEMAS HOLDINGS
JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS
DUNAMIS CAPITAL
RICHARD PIERIS
SUNSHINE HOLDINGS
SOFTLOGIC HOLDINGS
EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS
FREE LANKA CAPITAL HOLDINGS
VALLIBEL ONE LIMITED
BROWNS INVESTMENTS PLC
PCH HOLDINGS LIMITED

SPEN
CARS
CTHR
CFLB
JFIN
HAYL
HHL
JKH
CSEC
RICH
SUN
SHL
EXPO
FLCH
VONE
BIL
PCHH

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB

M
M
M
M
D
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M

120.00
435.00
124.00
34.50
250.00
304.70
26.60
219.90
13.00
7.80
28.80
10.70
7.10
2.50
18.70
4.00
7.90

FOOTWEAR AND TEXTILES


CEYLON LEATHER
HAYLEYS - MGT
KURUWITA TEXTILES
ODEL
ORIENT GARMENTS

CLPL
MGT
KURU
ODEL
OGL

MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB

M
M
M
M
M

78.00
11.50
20.80
19.70
14.20

HOTELS AND TRAVELS


City Hotels
ASIAN HOTEL & PROPERTIES
GALADARI
HOTEL DEVELOPERS
HOTEL SERVICES
RENUKA CITY HOTEL
TAJ LANKA
TRANS ASIA

AHPL
GHLL
HDEV
SERV
RENU
TAJ
TRAN

MainB
MainB
DefaultB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB

M
D
M
M
M
M
M

75.90
14.20
6.90
17.20
240.00
29.50
74.00

Price Performance
1W(%)
1M(%)
1.35
2.39
2.30
0.84
(0.05)
(2.97)
0.32
0.49
6.15
10.93
(9.02)
4.35
1.57
(2.21)
0.64
4.93
(9.72)
2.63
4.35
3.97
4.85
2.86
4.41
7.58
8.70
19.05
2.78
5.71
8.11
11.11
5.41
11.43

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM

1Q(%)
(7.01)
(6.90)
(1.91)
(21.52)
(17.66)
(16.56)
(4.60)
(12.79)
(4.23)
(19.25)
(12.36)
(7.10)
(10.00)
(7.79)
(16.67)
(13.95)
(27.78)

1.45
4.14
0.88
(0.98)
0.51
8.40

5.90
3.87
26.37
1.00
2.07
7.58

(16.20)
(13.35)
(11.54)
(21.92)
(21.20)
(24.87)

1.74

1.63

(11.04)

1.90
6.77
9.38
1.18
0.21
2.05
(0.81)

(4.46)
18.33
18.64
7.50
6.67
4.56
(7.63)

(11.24)
(15.98)
(22.22)
(1.71)
(7.69)
(16.76)
(20.99)

Shares
Mn
406.00
196.39
183.10
180.00
35.00
75.00
515.29
851.51
123.00
1939.24
133.33
779.00
1954.92
1368.00
1086.56
1860.00
252.00

Trailing
ROE
15.05%
15.23%
7.46%
8.41%
18.20%
6.27%
5.65%
13.20%
14.56%
na
30.85%
21.45%
2.54%
12.14%
5.37%
6.07%
1.41%
88.39%

34.23
152.34
25.00
272.13
54.92

-5.00%
2.25%
na
na
9.33%
6.97%

BVPS

63.82
164.94
68.89
32.11
154.18
250.97
21.24
87.92
8.97
3.52
22.76
10.03
4.48
4.85
28.07
5.85
6.26

Net Profit
4Qtrs
29,749.37
3,947.22
2,418.12
1,060.36
1,051.63
338.44
1,063.14
1,444.73
10,900.49
(249.73)
2,107.10
651.09
198.30
1,062.91
356.68
1,850.83
152.88
1,395.17

Sep'12
7,104.98
731.41
874.90
147.06
7.14
82.13
372.48
387.78
2,411.73
20.37
569.53
98.31
133.57
299.27
203.23
796.53
21.70
(52.17)

87.18
12.51
34.72
7.25
11.87

(386.80)
67.26
(653.37)
(30.11)
183.97
45.45

33.03
3.00
na
6.96
310.30
15.88
26.05

6,973.81
2,600.56
2,464.92
(846.04)
na
(389.53)
393.24
168.10
809.87

8.34%
442.78
182.43
161.20
176.00
7.00
139.64
200.00

16.86%
na
na
na
18.10%
7.58%
15.54%

Net
Jun'12
4,201.60
640.57
(93.01)
196.16
180.99
89.88
219.08
334.33
1,658.72
(9.59)
445.54
184.14
71.01
283.79

Profits
Mar'12
12,211.76
1,756.50
1,383.67
439.74
385.72
83.71
178.40
372.08
4,096.65
(73.92)
481.07
243.30
(74.14)
286.48
153.45
1,054.31
131.18
1,313.55

(53.04)
16.60
(85.11)
(65.46)
104.14
(23.20)

(60.71)
27.38
(41.65)
(46.45)

(168.21)
(15.42)
(369.86)
68.59
79.84
68.65

(104.84)
38.70
(156.75)
13.21

1,971.84
1,149.27
565.37
339.77
na
(106.40)
46.60
87.53
216.40

551.82
268.53
406.75
(323.10)
na
(96.74)
104.28
23.20
154.14

2,591.99
504.87
970.15
(663.02)

1,858.16
677.89
522.66
(199.69)

(199.64)
118.47
6.73
272.18

13.25
123.89
50.64
167.15

Dec'11
6,097.25
818.74
252.55
277.40
477.78
82.72
293.18
350.54
2,733.40
(186.59)
610.96
125.33
67.86
193.37

40

Trailing
EPS

PBV

Mkt Cap Mn

9.72
12.31
5.79
5.84
9.67
14.18
2.80
12.80
na
1.09
4.88
0.25
0.54
0.26
1.70
0.08
5.54

Trailing
PE
15.78
12.3
35.3
21.4
5.9
25.9
21.5
9.5
17.2
na
7.2
5.9
42.0
13.1
9.6
11.0
48.7
1.4

2.11
1.9
2.6
1.8
1.1
1.6
1.2
1.3
2.5
1.4
2.2
1.3
1.1
1.6
0.5
0.7
0.7
1.3

48,719.53
85,428.31
22,704.06
6,210.00
8,750.00
22,852.50
13,706.73
187,247.01
1,598.96
15,126.05
3,840.00
8,335.30
13,879.90
3,420.00
20,318.66
7,440.00
1,990.80

1.96
na
na
0.68
0.83

na
39.7
na
na
29.1
17.2

1.33
0.9
0.9
0.6
2.7
1.2

20.95

2.16

13.6
na
na
na
4.3
24.5
18.3

2.3
4.7
na
2.5
0.8
1.9
2.8

5.57
na
na
na
56.18
1.20
4.05

2,670.23
1,751.95
520.00
5,360.95

33,606.65
2,590.56
1,112.28
3,027.20
1,680.00
4,119.31
14,800.00

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

Broad Market
Guide
Company

Year
End

Price
(LKR)

Price Performance
1W(%)
1M(%)

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM

Shares
Mn

Trailing
ROE

BVPS

1Q(%)

Resort Hotels
AIT. SPENCE HOTEL HOLD.
AMAYA LEISURE
BROWNS BEACH HOTELS
CEYLON HOTELS CORP.
CONFIFI HOTEL HLDG.
BERUWALA WALK INN
EDEN HOTELS
HOTEL SIGIRIYA
HUNAS FALLS
KANDY HOTELS
JOHN KEELLS HOTELS
LIGHT HOUSE HOTEL
MIRAMAR
MAHAWELI REACH
NUWARA ELIYA
PEGASUS
REEFCOMBERS
ROYAL PALMS
SIGIRIYA VILLAGE
STAFFORD/DOLPHIN
TANGERINE
SERENDIB HOTELS [V]
SERENDIB HOTELS [NV]
MARAWILA RESORTS
FORTRESS RESORTS
KALPITIYA BEACH RESORT
WASKADUWA BEACH RESORT
BERUWALA RESORTS

AHUN
CONN
BBH
CHOT
PALM
BINN
EDEN
HSIG
HUNA
KHC
KHL
LHL
MIRA
MRH
NEH
PEG
REEF
RPBH
SIGV
STAF
TANG
SHOT
SHOT
MARA
RHTL
CITK
CITW
BERU

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DefaultB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB

M
M
M
M
M
D
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M

73.50
85.00
18.40
22.80
40.00
75.00
35.00
81.00
63.00
9.60
13.70
49.00
100.00
20.60
1350.10
40.00
27.70
43.00
63.00
36.50
80.40
23.50
63.00
7.40
16.00
6.90
6.50
2.60

0.55
6.25
2.84
7.66
12.68
2.90
1.45
1.25
11.50
2.13
0.74
8.89
21.49
2.46
(6.89)
2.56
7.79
(2.05)
(3.54)
4.29
0.50
(0.42)
(3.54)
5.71
4.49
9.38
9.84
4.00

3.86
6.38
(1.09)
9.76
(18.03)
(3.99)
2.94
2.40
12.50
6.67
4.58
2.30
14.92
8.90
1.82
12.68
9.58
4.62
(10.43)
12.65
3.08
(2.08)
(10.43)
5.71
8.67
18.64
19.64
8.33

(4.97)
2.41
(35.36)
(18.48)
(18.03)
(11.19)
(7.16)
(4.71)
(11.93)
(5.52)
1.03
(2.00)
(16.80)
(3.74)
(18.03)
(24.21)
(25.86)
(18.57)
(7.36)
11.67
(11.99)
63.00
(19.57)
(19.31)
(22.22)
(19.28)
(13.33)

336.29
48.03
129.60
171.83
30.39
0.90
52.80
5.86
5.63
577.50
1456.15
46.00
2.75
47.07
2.00
30.39
96.48
50.00
9.00
31.62
20.00
75.51
9.00
122.50
110.89
161.20
155.60
600.00

14.14%
15.87%
5.00%
0.17%
na
na
12.03%
24.04%
23.05%
2.33%
8.42%
5.55%
na
6.41%
11.47%
8.05%
0.33%
9.38%
8.47%
14.09%
6.86%
4.89%
4.89%
3.84%
19.93%
na
2.72%
2.28%

33.73
47.40
26.16
34.30
39.86
na
29.44
38.16
19.29
9.99
9.31
50.58
na
19.02
1078.46
44.11
25.35
28.84
58.05
28.00
101.07
18.59
18.59
7.07
7.07
10.34
10.44
0.93

Net Profit
4Qtrs
4,373.25
1,604.23
361.41
169.64
9.77
(521.32)
(12.85)
187.02
53.75
25.01
134.21
1,140.90
129.04
na
57.35
247.84
107.88
8.16
135.19
44.27
124.79
138.72
76.85
76.85
33.28
156.21
(94.89)
44.13
12.67

INVESTMENT TRUST
ASIAN COTTON MILLS
CEYLON GUARDIAN
CEYLON INVESTMENT
COLOMBO FORT INV.
COLOMBO INV. TRUST
SHAW WALLACE
RENUKA HOLDINGS [V]
RENUKA HOLDINGS [NV]
GUARDIAN CAPITAL

ASCO
GUAR
CINV
CFI
CIT
SHAW
RHL
RHL
WAPO

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB

M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M

184.00
184.00
84.00
115.90
119.00
275.00
37.00
24.50
50.00

7.94
2.79
14.71
5.13
1.85
3.37
6.45

4.78
6.36
5.14
5.13
5.46
(7.75)
5.36
8.24
(5.77)
11.74

(10.68)
(4.91)
(6.84)
(18.29)
1.22
(4.88)
(8.39)
(23.17)
(28.57)
(25.23)

7.99
82.10
98.51
6.50
6.50
5.12
44.52
6.43
25.83

1.57%
na
1.72%
1.75%
5.70%
8.22%
na
10.68%
10.68%
na

70.87
168.92
82.28
45.38
33.31
443.37
42.40
42.40
20.66

439.03
(10.10)
238.67
142.07
16.82
17.79
(128.23)
230.68
230.68
(68.67)

Sep'12
822.58
227.60
110.82
50.60
9.60
(22.15)
(4.79)
26.23
16.50
11.17
50.60
116.49
12.10
na
19.53
107.56
17.60
4.60
16.97
12.15
30.00
17.68
40.75
40.75
(5.30)
35.35
(49.51)
12.14
(41.72)
539.00
22.47
324.44
148.66
10.50
12.18
(38.57)
47.90
47.90
11.42

Net
Jun'12
283.29
171.51
53.47
45.04
(25.93)
(121.80)
(16.59)
15.11
7.77
7.70
26.87
40.36
14.29
na
1.01
36.72
21.23
(22.02)
(1.24)
(1.26)
26.49
9.34
(4.78)
(4.78)

Profits
Mar'12
2,087.12
697.77
113.77
40.99
34.36
(328.80)
(66.85)
95.93
17.99
3.52
40.41
698.09
78.80
na
26.79
78.94
41.02
80.57
85.46
16.21
39.73
69.10
22.89
22.89
38.58
120.86
(45.38)
31.99
54.38

(156.22)
31.09
(77.01)
(53.46)
2.48
3.30
(36.99)
30.34
30.34
(55.97)

233.09
(45.24)
112.90
112.93
1.66
1.16
(30.39)
91.84
91.84
(11.77)

Dec'11
1,180.27
507.35
83.35
33.01
(8.26)
(48.57)
75.38
49.75
11.49
2.62
16.33
285.96
23.85
10.02
24.62
28.03
(54.99)
34.00
17.17
28.57
42.60
17.99
17.99

(176.84)
(18.42)
(121.66)
(66.06)
2.18
1.15
(22.28)
60.60
60.60
(12.35)

41

Trailing
EPS

Trailing
PE

PBV

Mkt Cap Mn

4.77
7.52
1.31
0.06
na
na
3.54
9.17
4.45
0.23
0.78
2.81
na
1.22
123.68
3.55
0.08
2.70
4.92
3.95
6.94
0.91
0.91
0.27
1.41
na
0.28
0.02

15.4
11.3
14.1
401.1
na
na
9.9
8.8
14.2
41.3
17.5
17.5
na
16.9
10.9
11.3
327.5
15.9
12.8
9.2
11.6
25.8
69.3
27.2
11.4
na
22.9
123.2

2.2
1.8
0.7
0.7
1.0
na
1.2
2.1
3.3
1.0
1.5
1.0
na
1.1
1.3
0.9
1.1
1.5
1.1
1.3
0.8
1.3
3.4
1.0
2.3
0.7
0.6
2.8

24,717.32
4,082.91
2,384.64
3,917.61
1,215.66
67.50
1,848.00
474.58
354.38
5,544.00
19,949.21
2,254.00
275.00
969.57
2,705.42
1,215.66
2,672.42
2,150.00
567.00
1,154.18
1,608.00
1,774.60
567.00
906.50
1,774.19
1,112.28
1,011.40
1,560.00

na
2.91
1.44
2.59
2.74
na
4.53
4.53
na

70.34
na
63.3
58.2
44.8
43.5
na
8.2
5.4
na

1.10
2.6
1.1
1.0
2.6
3.6
0.6
0.9
0.6
2.4

1,469.33
15,105.80
8,275.25
753.35
773.50
1,408.15
1,647.14
157.50
1,291.69

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

Broad Market
Guide
Company

LAND AND PROPERTY


C T LAND
CARGO BOAT
CEYLINCO HOUSING
CEYLINCO SEYLAN
COLOMBO LAND
COMMERCIAL DEVELOP.
EAST WEST
EQUITY ONE
EQUITY TWO
HUEJAY
KELSEY DEVELOPMENTS
ON'ALLY HOLDINGS
OVERSEAS REALTY
PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT
SERENDIB LAND
YORK ARCADE
INFRASTRUCTURE
TOUCHWOOD

CTLD
CABO
CHOU
CSD
CLND
COMD
EAST
EQIT
ETWO
HUEJ
KDL
ONAL
OSEA
PDL
SLND
YORK
IDL
TWOD

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB

Year
End
M
M
M
M
D
D
M
M
M
M
M
M
D
D
M
M
M
M

Price
(LKR)
24.70
78.20
15.90
9.00
35.00
61.00
14.80
33.00
26.50
79.80
16.40
57.00
14.40
49.70
1799.00
17.00
140.00
9.10

Price Performance
1W(%)
1M(%)
3.18
4.28
(0.80)
7.39
(4.63)
4.61
7.06
10.98
7.01
13.96
(3.17)
(10.95)
8.82
16.54
0.61
(2.37)
0.76
1.92
6.40
2.57
3.23
11.89
1.97
2.14
2.14
(0.60)
(5.87)
12.43
21.88
0.59
10.39
4.87
3.45
(4.26)

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM

1Q(%)
(10.58)
(10.51)
(21.33)
(22.06)
(17.27)
(15.22)
(26.68)
(21.28)
(8.33)
(9.56)
(20.20)
(7.51)
(8.06)
2.14
(10.93)
(6.31)
(23.77)
(17.65)
(57.75)

Shares
Mn
48.75
10.20
13.38
147.96
199.88
12.00
138.24
40.32
31.00
1.80
17.43
17.50
843.48
66.00
0.36
12.00
6.48
106.91

Trailing
ROE
10.28%
10.99%
12.28%
46.91%
0.44%
na
31.32%
0.41%
5.85%
7.10%
na
na
4.78%
13.50%
15.26%
14.86%
14.40%
0.18
0.13

BVPS

49.62
74.74
13.27
30.28
18.22
85.15
9.61
38.75
17.77
na
4.69
65.36
23.48
32.16
642.34
9.89
21.78
29.39

Net Profit
4Qtrs
4,391.72
265.73
93.58
83.31
19.93
(19.30)
320.07
5.39
91.45
39.11
(4.72)
(36.92)
54.73
2,674.92
324.02
34.37
17.09
25.27
403.68

Sep'12
685.54
38.52
27.20
31.77
26.80
(5.10)
17.89
18.58
6.91
(0.09)
1.00
(9.95)
17.48
273.58
87.96
2.79
2.65
22.26
125.30

Net
Jun'12
271.68
39.19
24.39
25.67
23.25
(8.60)
3.94
(6.15)
6.63
0.17
(1.20)
(20.32)
18.23
94.27
66.70
2.21
3.31

Profits
Mar'12
748.89
154.43
12.60
6.07
25.09
(1.80)
13.03
(2.37)
69.80
38.33
(2.93)
(2.13)
5.10
40.33
76.51
28.24
7.20
3.02
278.38

Dec'11
2,685.61
33.60
29.39
19.80
(55.20)
(3.81)
285.20
(4.67)
8.12
0.70
(1.59)
(4.51)
13.92
2,266.75
92.85
1.13
3.93

42

Trailing
EPS
5.45
9.17
6.23
0.13
na
26.67
0.04
2.27
1.26
na
na
3.13
3.17
4.91
95.46
1.42
3.90
3.78

Trailing
PE
7.98
4.5
8.5
2.6
66.8
na
2.3
379.7
14.5
21.0
na
na
18.2
4.5
10.1
18.8
11.9
35.88
2.41

PBV

Mkt Cap Mn

0.82
0.5
1.0
1.2
0.3
1.9
0.7
1.5
0.9
1.5
na
3.5
0.9
0.6
1.5
2.8
1.7
6.4
0.3

1,204.13
797.64
212.74
1,331.68
6,995.84
732.00
2,045.95
1,330.62
821.50
143.64
285.84
997.54
12,146.17
3,280.20
647.64
204.00
906.73
972.84

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

Broad Market
Guide
Company

MANUFACTURING
ABANS
ACL CABLES
ACL PLASTICS
ACME
ALUFAB
BLUE DIAMONDS [V]
BLUE DIAMONDS [NV]
BOGALA GRAPHITE
CENTRAL INDUSTRIES
GRAIN ELEVATORS
CHEVRON LUBRICANTS
DANKOTUWA
DIPPED PRODUCTS
HAYLEYS EXPORTS
KELANI CABLES
KELANI TYRES
LANKA ALUMINIUM
LANKA CEMENT
LANKA CERAMIC
LANKA TILES
LANKA WALLTILES
LAXAPANA
SWISSTEK (CEYLON) PLC
PELWATTE SUGAR
PIRAMAL GLASS
PRINT CARE
REGNIS
RICH PIERIS EXPORTS
ROYAL CERAMICS
SAMSON INTERNATIONAL
SINGER INDUSTRIES
SWADESHI
TOKYO CEMENT [V]
TOKYO CEMENT [NV]
SIERRA CABLES
TEXTURED JERSEY
AGSTAR FERTILIZERS LIMITED
AGSTAR FERTILIZERS LIMITED

ABAN
ACL
APLA
ACME
ALUF
BLUE
BLUE
BOGA
CIND
GRAN
LLUB
DPL
DIPD
HEXP
KCAB
TYRE
LALU
LCEM
CERA
TILE
LWL
LITE
PARQ
SUGA
GLAS
CARE
REG
REXP
RCL
SIL
SINI
SWAD
TKYO
TKYO
SIRA
TJL
AGST
AGSTX

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DefaltB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB

Year
End
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
D
M
D
D
D
M
M
M
M
M
D
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
D
M
M
M
D
M
M
M
M
M
M
M

Price
(LKR)
96.50
67.50
99.80
15.00
22.50
4.10
1.90
23.60
68.50
59.00
202.00
16.10
110.00
28.00
70.00
34.50
33.70
9.30
59.30
64.90
60.90
6.90
13.10
23.50
6.00
29.20
61.00
33.50
94.00
90.00
136.10
8200.00
28.60
19.50
2.40
8.90
6.2
15

Price Performance
1W(%)
1M(%)
1.15
5.41
4.89
1.58
3.85
3.85
5.61
15.91
8.76
23.14
2.27
15.38
5.13
5.13
5.56
18.75
6.79
9.26
(0.72)
6.24
14.65
(0.78)
7.09
6.62
19.26
10.00
3.70
4.09
0.14
2.79
0.58
7.81
(0.30)
(2.03)
1.09
13.41
(2.79)
(1.00)
7.27
(1.67)
1.69
3.99
4.55
(7.75)
11.97
1.69
(2.67)
3.95
1.00
(2.62)
(1.18)
(0.95)
3.30
4.65
16.88
0.82
0.07
1.82
10.67
3.17
0.52
(4.00)
2.30
5.95
6.90
1.64
-

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM

1Q(%)
(7.61)
(12.83)
(10.00)
(13.22)
(16.76)
(40.32)
(24.07)
(5.00)
(19.73)
(9.75)
(18.57)
5.42
(20.69)
0.46
(12.50)
(21.35)
(12.66)
(11.32)
(23.14)
(16.95)
(12.30)
(11.89)
(10.39)
(23.39)
(7.69)
(14.12)
(13.92)
1.52
(8.74)
(0.22)
(25.90)
(3.45)
(3.47)
(22.58)
(9.18)
(20.51)
-

Shares
Mn
4.26
59.89
4.21
25.61
12.06
103.30
153.37
47.32
9.88
60.00
120.00
72.25
59.86
8.00
21.80
80.40
13.70
173.51
30.00
53.05
54.60
39.00
27.37
67.98
950.09
85.97
11.27
11.16
110.79
3.85
3.85
0.13
202.50
101.25
537.51
655.00
307.53
17.47

Trailing
ROE
20.51%
18.70%
9.47%
9.76%
na
0.60%
na
na
20.44%
12.41%
14.56%
54.83%
4.63%
16.06%
4.72%
13.53%
27.70%
3.53%
na
16.15%
23.95%
17.19%
na
5.58%
na
21.94%
21.67%
13.36%
418.12%
22.71%
16.36%
0.83%
8.98%
9.28%
9.28%
33.90%
13.11%
13.81%
13.81%

BVPS

112.90
87.32
136.90
19.71
21.36
1.16
1.16
4.30
90.93
48.75
34.62
10.61
95.48
43.65
93.01
18.95
43.21
na
84.16
53.13
75.06
3.60
21.17
na
3.44
14.24
51.54
2.80
69.64
97.97
207.24
819.37
19.92
19.92
3.29
8.55
6.64
116.93

Net Profit
4Qtrs
12,002.73
89.91
495.11
56.28
(43.49)
1.53
(45.82)
(45.82)
41.62
111.57
425.89
2,277.70
35.49
917.70
16.48
274.35
422.04
20.90
(16.48)
407.75
675.09
704.44
(96.59)
32.31
na
716.80
265.23
77.57
130.68
1,752.25
61.66
6.62
9.62
561.29
561.29
600.42
734.57
282.24
282.24

Sep'12
2,829.13
50.92
81.21
1.28
(25.48)
0.24
0.24
16.88
30.98
(34.78)
521.99
31.20
345.02
6.92
57.21
130.24
(6.86)
(4.22)
90.02
159.02
151.07
(40.30)
2.09
265.13
60.27
7.44
51.63
420.40
13.74
0.56
(3.24)
175.57
175.57
(8.75)
156.7
125.04
125.04

Net
Jun'12
2,887.76
8.04
118.11
26.77
(13.30)
3.06
(21.41)
(21.41)
27.99
21.22
395.95
533.17
23.67
285.68
7.21
60.82
81.06
13.76
(4.50)
(16.65)
54.00
(15.79)
(4.76)
(17.71)

Profits
Mar'12
3,458.80
25.14
193.97
22.04
35.55
4.97
(0.85)
(0.85)
(15.02)
34.73
0.58
661.10
(3.44)
136.35
9.36
107.88
123.73
13.92
(4.93)
193.52
321.62
387.08
(41.84)
39.41

148.94
70.28
18.03
36.29
260.77
12.76
1.87
(14.07)
(19.99)
(19.99)
634.57
171.94

97.76
67.34
38.73
27.23
475.37
29.92
2.93
13.42
130.24
130.24
(44.86)
218.66
157.20
157.20

Dec'11
2,836.32
5.81
101.83
6.19
(40.27)
2.78
(23.79)
(23.79)
11.76
24.65
64.14
561.44
(15.94)
150.65
(7.00)
48.45
87.02
0.08
(2.83)
140.86
140.45
182.07
(9.69)
8.52
204.97
67.34
13.37
15.54
595.71
5.24
1.27
13.51
275.47
275.47
19.46
187.27

43

Trailing
EPS
21.11
8.27
13.36
na
0.13
na
na
0.88
11.29
7.10
18.98
0.49
15.33
2.06
12.59
5.25
1.53
na
13.59
12.73
12.90
na
1.18
na
0.75
3.09
6.88
11.71
15.82
16.02
1.72
0.05
1.85
1.85
1.12
1.12
0.92
16.15

Trailing
PE
7.63
4.6
8.2
7.5
na
177.0
na
na
26.8
6.1
8.3
10.6
32.8
7.2
13.6
5.6
6.6
22.1
na
4.4
5.1
4.7
na
11.1
na
8.0
9.5
8.9
2.9
5.9
5.6
79.0
172760.0
15.5
10.6
2.1
7.9
6.8
0.9

PBV

Mkt Cap Mn

1.57
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.8
1.1
3.5
1.6
5.5
0.8
1.2
5.8
1.5
1.2
0.6
0.8
1.8
0.8
na
0.7
1.2
0.8
1.9
0.6
na
1.7
2.1
1.2
12.0
1.3
0.9
0.7
10.0
1.4
1.0
0.7
1.0
0.9
0.1

410.97
4,042.82
420.41
384.20
271.31
423.53
291.40
1,116.67
677.07
3,540.00
24,240.00
1,163.16
6,584.77
224.00
1,526.00
2,773.80
461.79
1,613.65
1,779.00
3,442.97
3,325.14
269.10
358.57
1,597.46
5,700.52
2,510.23
687.34
373.99
10,414.20
346.32
523.48
1,071.46
5,791.50
1,974.38
1,290.03
5,829.52
1,906.66
262.11

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

Broad Market
Guide
Company

Year
End

Price
(LKR)

Price Performance
1W(%)
1M(%)
2.47
1.63
(2.17)
9.47
10.34
1.52
2.46
0.65
5.48
(0.57)
(6.87)
(11.78)
0.31
5.82

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM

1Q(%)
(15.42)
0.30
(34.91)
(21.62)
(15.54)
(22.95)
(3.70)

Shares
Mn
1.20
9.12
8.88
3.62
6.03
67.27

Trailing
ROE
31.17%
5.69%
39.30%
20.94%
39.57%
24.73%
39.71%

BVPS

477.39
290.55
863.75
649.34
106.56
97.37

Net Profit
4Qtrs
6,370.06
32.61
1,041.82
1,605.52
930.34
159.01
2,600.77

Sep'12
562.72
12.18
51.28
113.23
24.14
40.79
321.10

Net
Jun'12
1,810.28
4.38
130.55
352.36
317.09
37.12
968.78

Profits
Mar'12
2,104.52
6.65
659.81
427.34
280.11
42.31
688.30

Dec'11
1,892.54
9.40
200.18
712.59
309.00
38.79
622.59

MOTORS
AUTODROME
COLONIAL MOTORS
DIMO
LANKA ASHOK
SATHOSA MOTORS
UNITED MOTORS

AUTO
COLO
DIMO
ASHO
SMOT
UML

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB

M
M
M
M
M
M

810.00
160.00
605.00
1750.00
191.00
96.00

OIL PALMS
BUKIT DARAH
GOOD HOPE
INDO MALAY
SELINSING
SHALIMAR

BUKI
GOOD
INDO
SELI
SHAL

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB

M
M
M
M
M

690.00
1299.00
1550.00
1125.00
900.00

2.03
2.99
0.45
-

4.44
5.02
8.25
9.08
2.36
(10.00)

(4.42)
(4.83)
7.36
3.33
(9.99)
(17.77)

102.00
6.87
7.00
6.94
6.94

19.60%
10.00%
4.27%
3.23%
4.94%
3.92%

285.72
794.60
770.02
975.01
820.73

3,877.75
2,913.11
232.89
174.25
334.29
223.21

1,001.86
832.97
34.69
31.80
63.85
38.56

685.30
353.77
72.40
73.48
105.66
79.99

1,914.06
1,561.69
110.09
41.40
126.38
74.50

276.53
164.69
15.70
27.58
38.39
30.17

PLANTATIONS
AGALAWATTE
BALANGODA
BOGAWANTALAWA
HAPUGASTENNE
Horana Plantations
KAHAWATTE
KEGALLE
KELANI VALLEY
KOTAGALA
MADULSIMA
MALWATTE VALLEY
MALWATTE VALLEY
MASKELIYA
NAMUNUKULA
TALAWAKELLE
UDAPUSSELLAWA
WATAWALA PLANTATIONS
ELPITIYA
MET.RES.HOL

AGAL
BALA
BOPL
HAPU
HOPL
KAHA
KGAL
KVAL
KOTA
MADU
MAL
MALX
MASK
NAMU
TPL
UDPL
WATA
ELPL
MPRH

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB

D
D
M
D
M
D
M
D
M
D
D
D
M
M
D
D
M
M
M

32.60
38.00
12.10
40.00
25.10
34.00
104.00
80.00
74.00
15.80
4.60
4.30
12.60
73.20
24.70
29.10
12.00
18.20
21.00

0.92
3.49
(1.81)
2.54
3.63
0.40
4.69
1.76
3.63
(1.99)
(4.24)
2.48
(10.95)
(0.83)
2.83
0.84
6.47
5.00

4.20
1.56
7.04
5.22
7.82
11.06
16.32
1.46
(2.91)
16.22
14.49
2.22
7.50
(0.80)
(7.92)
10.09
(2.35)
3.43
7.14

(10.32)
(17.47)
(4.76)
(11.03)
(6.76)
(19.03)
5.35
(8.13)
(10.11)
(8.89)
(27.52)
(16.36)
(20.37)
(37.69)
(12.34)
(27.27)
0.34
(6.25)
(21.30)
(10.64)

25.00
23.64
83.75
46.32
25.00
79.89
25.00
34.00
32.00
29.00
224.59
23.00
53.95
23.75
23.75
19.40
236.67
72.87
17.26

20.54%
21.77%
5.37%
1.62%
na
12.78%
7.83%
21.24%
24.09%
21.22%
na
6.56%
6.56%
16.74%
22.24%
11.01%
na
24.87%
14.59%
1.73%

40.16
62.32
10.00
27.15
42.91
13.81
126.77
70.06
81.87
57.02
8.65
8.65
22.92
73.18
45.26
15.97
13.07
22.38
35.53

4,100.58
218.61
79.16
13.53
(80.97)
137.06
86.34
673.02
573.79
556.02
(4.23)
140.42
140.42
207.04
386.43
118.37
(21.82)
769.28
237.94
10.61

1,429.60
160.60
(12.17)
88.90
13.43
41.06
13.20
155.61
173.22
107.80
(42.92)
94.02
94.02
21.51
103.40
35.16
0.70
186.23
197.00
92.84

1,039.50
(1.16)
73.87
49.14
52.29
11.54
29.26
122.68
128.20
104.76
26.51
114.84
114.84
34.22
72.29
26.62
37.14
157.32

1,209.99
30.87
67.25
(96.44)
25.75
50.79
30.96
246.28
85.57
204.10
(57.18)
101.34
101.34
165.87
105.01
6.81
16.60
267.69
40.94
(82.23)

421.50
28.29
(49.80)
(28.08)
(172.44)
33.67
12.92
148.46
186.81
139.36
69.37
(169.78)
(169.78)
(14.56)
105.74
49.77
(76.26)
158.03

HEALTH SERVICES
ASIRI CENTRAL
ASIRI SURGICAL
ASIRI HOSPITAL
CEYLON HOSPITALS [V]
CEYLON HOSPITALS [NV]
LANKA HOSPITALS
NAWALOKA

M
M
M
M
M
M
M

229.00
9.20
11.10
91.10
67.00
39.30
3.00

1.89
(8.40)
5.75
1.83
(7.04)
(5.37)
8.86
3.45

(9.21)
(11.58)
9.52
(3.48)
1.22
(11.84)
(22.79)
(11.76)

22.33
528.46
1099.09
25.53
8.35
223.73
1409.51

10.62%
na
16.56%
11.39%
11.49%
11.49%
13.69%
16.18%

88.10
7.43
3.92
72.7
72.7
15.72
2.43

2,349.78
(112.22)
650.23
490.03
286.84
286.84
481.52
553.38

510.06
(38.10)
104.26
112.21
49.92
49.92
94.57
187.20

400.01
(74.11)
111.95
84.55
102.55
102.55
84.46
90.62

862.05

DiriSaviB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB

1.13
4.09
(2.13)
(1.51)
4.24
-

577.66

ASHA
AMSL
ASIR
CHL
CHL
LHCL
NHL

110.65
176.23
80.08
80.08
112.65
98.04

323.37
117.03
54.29
54.29
189.84
177.51

44

Trailing
EPS

PBV

Mkt Cap Mn

27.17
114.18
180.87
256.94
26.35
38.66

Trailing
PE
3.41
29.8
1.4
3.3
6.8
7.2
2.5

1.06
1.7
0.6
0.7
2.7
1.8
1.0

972.00
1,459.89
5,370.24
6,336.48
1,152.42
6,457.64

28.56
33.89
24.90
48.17
32.16

26.9
24.2
38.3
62.3
23.4
28.0

5.3
2.4
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.1

70,380.00
8,925.83
10,847.52
7,807.59
6,246.07

8.74
3.35
0.16
na
5.48
1.08
26.92
16.88
17.38
na
0.57
0.57
3.84
16.27
4.98
na
3.25
3.27
0.61

6.2
3.7
11.3
74.9
na
4.6
31.5
3.9
4.7
4.3
na
8.1
7.6
3.3
4.5
5.0
na
3.7
5.6
34.2

1.27
0.8
0.6
1.2
1.5
0.6
2.5
0.8
1.1
0.9
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.0
0.5
1.8
0.9
0.8
0.6

815.00
898.18
1,013.38
1,852.63
627.50
2,716.25
2,600.00
2,720.00
2,368.00
458.20
1,033.11
98.90
679.81
1,738.50
586.63
564.51
2,840.00
1,326.17
362.56

na
1.23
0.45
8.47
8.47
2.15
0.39

16.2
na
7.5
24.9
10.8
7.9
18.3
7.6

1.72
2.6
1.2
2.8
1.3
0.9
2.5
1.2

5,114.48
4,861.81
12,199.92
2,325.53
559.15
8,792.67
4,228.52

28th December 2012

Sri Lanka Focus

Broad Market
Guide
Company

Year
End

Price
(LKR)

Price Performance
1W(%)
1M(%)
5.98
1.78
7.32
4.03
16.67
4.90
13.50
25.78
10.56
(3.78)
18.18
0.30
(1.65)
3.22
1.79
(10.71)

ASIA RESEARCH TEAM

1Q(%)
(19.09)
(8.51)
(17.90)
(10.73)
0.49
0.97
(12.09)
(13.64)
(44.44)

Shares
Mn
60.80
2.94
2.84
0.04
0.05
0.10
114.00
260.00

Trailing
ROE
27.94%
34.20%
9.86%
na
na
1.63%
na
19.34%
34.25%

BVPS

41.29
49.99
69.07
271.92
663.80
62.58
1.81
0.63

Net Profit
4Qtrs
868.59
858.59
14.48
(99.16)
(1.20)
0.54
(0.56)
39.96
55.95

Sep'12
85.64
78.67
3.84
(39.85)
(1.05)
1.20
0.12
8.50
34.21

Net
Jun'12
26.82
55.55
4.40
(49.20)
1.27
0.68
0.13
13.99

Profits
Mar'12
699.10
663.49
2.23
1.80
(4.56)
(1.97)
(1.10)
17.47
21.74

Dec'11
57.03
60.88
4.01
(11.92)
3.14
0.63
0.29

45

Trailing
EPS

PBV

Mkt Cap Mn

14.12
4.93
na
na
10.80
na
0.35
0.22

Trailing
PE
6.56
4.6
21.3
na
na
240.7
na
16.3
23.2

1.83
1.6
2.1
2.5
7.4
3.9
19.2
3.1
8.0

3,939.84
308.41
483.08
70.72
130.00
120.02
649.80
1,300.00

82.20
128.21
9.90
6.49

11.31
5.9
8.6
20.4
48.6

0.97
0.7
1.2
6.0
0.7

622.43
2,788.75
460.41
1,620.68

12.67
8.28
0.02
0.53
0.57
na
10.17
61.18
na

11.96
9.9
9.4
357.3
20.8
26.0
na
10.0
49.0
na

1.04
0.6
1.6
1.0
1.2
0.6
5.6
2.6
6.4
1.5

8,930.25
2,799.91
855.20
1,291.91
5,205.57
141.60
12,771.38
250.07
450.00

1.78
3.83
0.07
0.28
2.50
2.50
na
0.12
0.72

5.62
12.6
5.2
52.7
23.3
10.4
7.3
na
21.5
18.0

1.16
1.0
0.9
1.7
86.6
1.6
1.1
1.0
1.8
2.0

2,817.00
10,597.35
1,813.62
4,856.21
8,710.00
951.60
752.71
1,300.00
1,300.00

na
114.1
57.5

na
5.2
0.9

696.15
1,236.24

13.35
9.8
19.3

1.62
1.9
1.5

67,593.36
79,955.30

SERVICES
JOHN KEELLS LIMITED
LAKE HOUSE PRINTING
MERC. SHIPPINGS
CEYLON PRINTERS
KALAMAZOO
PARAGON
CEYLON TEA BROKERS
ASIA SIYAKA COMMODITIES

JKL
LPRT
MSL
CPRT
KZOO
PARA
CTBL
ASIY

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB

M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M

64.80
105.00
169.80
2020.00
2600.00
1199.90
5.70
5.00

STORES AND SUPPLIES


COLOMBO PHARMACY
E B CREASY
GESTETNER
HUNTERS

PHAR
EBCR
GEST
HUNT

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB

M
M
M
M

489.00
1099.90
202.10
315.00

5.98
6.12
8.89
15.49
(0.94)

4.49
(0.75)
12.23
3.11
(4.55)

(17.27)
(22.28)
(7.38)
(19.80)
(28.07)

1.27
2.54
2.28
5.15

8.54%
11.52%
13.45%
29.32%
na

713.42
953.56
33.77
444.31

485.64
104.62
325.07
22.56
33.38

54.70
20.02
30.70
2.04
1.94

(58.55)
(3.33)
(34.00)
1.04
(22.26)

228.86
90.70
118.37
2.65
17.14

260.64
(2.77)
210.00
16.84
36.56

TRADING
BROWNS
C W MACKIE
CEYLON FOREIGN TRADES
EASTERN MERCHANTS
ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES
RADIANT GEMS
SINGER SRI LANKA
OFFICE EQUIPMENT
TESS AGRO

BRWN
CWM
CFT
EMER
GREG
RGEM
SINS
OFEQ
TESS

MainB
MainB
MainB
DefaultB
MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB

M
D
M
M
M
M
D
M
M

126.00
77.80
6.10
11.00
14.90
59.00
102.00
3000.00
2.50

4.01
2.64
2.00
3.39
7.84
2.04
4.42
5.15
4.35

5.16
3.50
8.65
7.02
8.91
2.04
10.07
5.15
(11.76)
14.29

(16.07)
(25.09)
(25.61)
(25.68)
(3.23)
(19.84)
(9.33)
(24.34)
(20.00)

70.88
35.99
140.20
117.45
349.37
2.40
125.21
0.08
180.00

8.66%
6.27%
17.36%
0.27%
5.54%
2.39%
na
26.38%
13.08%
na

202.00
47.69
6.24
9.54
23.96
10.62
38.56
467.91
1.67

2,734.33
898.02
297.92
2.39
62.06
200.07
(2.20)
1,273.69
5.10
(2.74)

294.12
190.84
11.59
6.83
(16.69)
(80.65)
(0.06)
194.17
(2.77)
(9.14)

300.32
(219.96)
85.92
(3.25)
39.55
83.85
0.34
310.05
3.81

1,503.59
752.25
106.85
(4.40)
67.80
243.26
(1.51)
337.87
(4.93)
6.40

636.30
174.89
93.56
3.21
(28.60)
(46.39)
(0.97)
431.60
8.99

POWER & ENERGY


HEMAS POWER
LANKA IOC
VIDULLANKA
VALLIBEL POWER
LAUGFS GAS
LAUGFS GAS [NV]
HYDRO POWER
PANASIAN POWER
MACKWOODS ENERGY LIMITED

HPWR
LIOC
VLL
VPEL
LGL
LGL
HPFL
PAP
MEL

MainB
MainB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB
DiriSaviB
MainB
MainB
DiriSaviB

M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M

22.50
19.90
3.80
6.50
26.00
18.30
6.90
2.60
13.00

3.22
7.14
2.70
1.56
7.08
7.65
1.47
4.17
4.00

5.73
10.29
0.52
8.57
1.56
12.72
17.31
6.15
8.70
5.69

(1.20)
(0.44)
16.07
(9.52)
1.56
(13.18)
(14.08)
(12.66)
(13.79)
(5.80)

125.20
532.53
477.27
747.11
335.00
52.00
109.09
500.00
100.00

20.60%
8.01%
17.74%
3.17%
371.84%
15.46%
15.46%
na
8.22%
10.96%

22.21
21.58
2.28
0.08
16.16
16.16
7.14
1.47
6.60

3,573.26
222.81
2,039.19
34.42
208.43
966.66
966.66
(31.25)
60.60
72.40

1,842.14
81.00
1,183.00
6.13
112.97
427.45
427.45
(1.80)
2.09
31.30

299.56
39.33
191.86
8.40
56.05

583.76
24.17
41.24
(27.63)
(15.61)
539.21
539.21
(25.85)
7.13
41.10

850.93
81.45
623.09
47.52
55.01

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
E-CHANNELLING
PC HOUSE

5.70
5.40

3.85
7.55
1.89

(21.51)
(6.56)
(28.00)

122.13
228.93

20.58%
4.55%
1.62%

1.10
5.79

27.61
6.10
21.51

(2.35)
2.87
(5.22)

1.79

(25.82)
3.23
(29.05)

53.99

DiriSaviB M
MainB
M

3.09
1.79
3.85

1.79

ECL
PCH

53.99

0.05
0.09

TELECOMMUNICATIONS
DIALOG TELEKOM
SRI LANKA TELECOM

DIAL
SLTL

MainB
MainB

8.30
44.30

1.31
(1.20)
3.53

3.58
2.50
4.51

(4.72)
(8.89)
(0.90)

8143.78
1804.86

12.11%
19.03%
7.55%

4.45
30.45

11,048.50
6,900.50
4,148.00

6,545.20
4,744.20
1,801.00

1,965.01
1,269.01
696.00

(165.91)
(530.91)
365.00

2,704.20
1,418.20
1,286.00

0.85
2.30

D
D

Note:
Counters which are listed on Dirisavi board will reflect 6 months results under
the quarters.

(7.68)
11.60

4.08
39.78

Research
Manager - Research
BalakrishnanNirmalan

Assistant Manager - Research


(94-11)5320362
nirmalan@asiacapital.lk

AmaliPerera

Corporates

(94-11)5320256
amali@asiacapital.lk

Economy

Minoli Mallawaarachchi
DilanWijekoon
Shan Silva
Yogini Yogarasa

(94-11)5320259
(94-11)5320249
(94-11)5320251
(94-11)5320361

DhanushaPathirana
Travis Gomez

(94-11)5320254
(94-11)5320254

Statistician
Nuwan Pradeep

(94-11)5320257

Sales
Institutional Sales

Retail Sales

SabriMarikar

(94-11) 5320224

077 3-576868 sabri@asiacapital.lk

ShiyamSubaulla

(011)- 5320218

0773-502016

shiyam@asiacapital.lk

NiroshanWijayakoon

(94-11) 5320208

0777-713645

niroshan@asiacapital.lk

GaganiJayawardhana

(011)- 5320236

0714-084953

gagani@asiacapital.lk

NiyazAboobucker

(94-11) 5320213

0777-727352

niyaz@asiacapital.lk

PriyanthaHingurage

(011)- 5320217

0773-502015

priyantha@asiacapital.lk

Anura Hedigallage

(94-11) 5320211

0777 -713663 anura@asiacapital.lk

Neluka Rodrigo

(011)- 5320214

0777-366280

neluka@asiacapital.lk

Manjula Kumarasinghe (94-11) 5320211

0777 -874310 manjula@asiacapital.lk

Subeeth Perera

(011)- 5320227

0714-042683

subeeth@asiacapital.lk

ChelakaHapugoda

(94-11)5320240

0777 -256740 chelaka@asiacapital.lk

Chaminda Mahanama

(94-11) 5320223

0777 -556582 mahanama@asiacapital.lk

Hiran Bibile

(94-11) 5320238

0777 -352032 hiran@asiacapital.lk

ArshwinAmarasekara

(94-11) 5320215

0773 -717220 arshwin@asiacapital.lk


ThusharaAdhikari
M G Suranjana
DanushkaBoteju
Kasun Navoda
AsankaSamarakoon
GayanNishsanka

(011)-5735122
(011)-5763539
(011)-5634803

0773-688202
0773-954994
0716-270527

adhikari@asiacapital.lk

(037)-5628844
(037)-5642717

0773-690749
0777-105356

asanka@asiacapital.lk
nishshanka@asiacapital.lk

SumedaJayawardena
LalindaLiyanapathirana
MaheshaMadurangi
RuchiraHasantha

(041)-5677525
(041)-5677526
(041)-5620727
(091)-5629998

0773-687307
0778-628798
0773-687027

sumeda@asiacapital.lk
rishan@asiacapital.lk
mahesha@asiacapital.lk
ruchira@asiacapital.lk

UthpalaKarunatilake
GayanPerera

(031)-5676881
(031)-5676880

0773-691685
0772-544044

uthpala@asiacapital.lk
gayan@asiacapital.lk

NilupulHettiarachchi

(081)-5628500

0777410164

nilupul@asiacapital.lk

RadhikaHettiarachchi
TharinduPriyankara

(081)-5625577
(081)-5625577

0773692242
0777282586

radhika@asiacapital.lk
priyankara@asiacapital.lk

SamithEdirisinghe
SherminRanasinghe
Ravi De Mel
NalakaDhanushka
GratianNirmalan
S.Puviraj
HashanLalantha
CharithPerera
RanganathWijetunga
AsankaChaminda

(047)-5679240
(063)-5679071
(063)-5679070
(021)-5671800
(021)-5671801
(011)-5238662
(011)-5238663
(038)-5670400
(038)-5670407

0775-486869
0777681866
0772-681995
0771-520376
0777-567933
0775-096969

samith@asiacapital.lk
shermin@asiacapital.lk
ravide@asiacapital.lk
nalaka@asiacapital.lk
nirmal@asiacapital.lk
puviraj@asiacapital.lk
lalantha@asiacapital.lk
charithn@asiacapital.lk
ranganath@asiacapital.lk
chaminda@asiacapital.lk

Branches
CSE Floor

CSE,01-04, World Trade Centre, Colombo 1.

Kiribathgoda

Level 2-6,Udeshi City Shopping complex, No 94,Makola Rd,Kiribathgoda

Kurunegala

Union Assurance Building, No.6,1stFloor,Rajapilla Rd, Kurunagala.

Matara

E.H.Cooray Building, Mezzanine Floor, No:24, AnagarikaDarmapala Mw,


Matara

Galle

Peoples Leasing Building,2nd Floor,No.118,Matara Road,Galle

Negombo

Asia Asset Finance, 171/1, Station Road, Negombo.

boteju@asiacapital.lk

Service Centers
Kandy

132 2/7, Hill City Complex,


D. S . Senanayake Street, Kandy.

Hambantota

Hambanthota Chamber of Commerce, ThangalleRoad,Hambantota.

Ampara

Bandula Cinema Shopping complex, No-103,D S Senanayaka Street, Ampara.

Jaffna

62/20, First Floor, Stanley Road, Jaffna

Moratuwa

Asia Asset Finance, No.18, New De Zoysa Rd, Moratuwa.

Panadura

Asian Alliance Building, 293, Galle Road, Panadura

0715-120723
0713-559552

The report has been prepared by Asia Wealth Management Co (Private) Limited. The information and opinions contained herein has been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such
information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness, reliability or suitability. All such information and opinions are subject to change without
notice. This document is for information purposes only, descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, or solicitation of an offer,
to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. In no event will Asia Wealth Management Co (Private) Limited be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever
arising out of, or in connection with the use of this report and any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk.
Asia Wealth Management Co (Private) Limited may, to the extent permissible by applicable law or regulation, use the above material, conclusions, research or analysis in which they are based before the material is disseminated to their customers. Not all
customers will receive the material at the same time. Asia Wealth Management Co (Private) Limited, their respective directors, officers, representatives, employees, related persons and/or Asia Wealth Management Co (Private) Limited, may have a long or
short position in any of the securities or other financial instruments mentioned or issuers described herein at any time and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale of any such securities or other financial instruments from
time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principal or agent. Asia Wealth Management Co (Private) Limited may make markets in securities or other financial instruments described in this publication, in securities of issuers described
herein or in securities underlying or related to such securities. Asia Wealth Management Co (Private) Limited may have recently underwritten the securities of an issuer mentioned herein. The information contained in this report is for general information
purposes only. This report and its content is copyright of Asia Wealth Management Co (Private) Limited and all rights reserved. This report- in whole or in part- may not, except with the express written permission of Asia Wealth Management Co (Private)
Limited be reproduced or distributed or commercially exploited in any material form by any means whether graphic, electronic, mechanical or any means. Nor may you transmit it or store it in any other website or other form of electronic retrieval system. Any

Trade on-line at http://www.cdax.lk