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Tariff DA 1NC Shell 1NC Shell 2/ Link X/T: Currency bill Internal Link X/T: US-China relations Impact X/T: Accidental War 1 2 3 5 6 7
As the Bible states. 15. published since 1997. the department said in a semiannual report that China promised at two high-level meetings last month to make the renminbi’s exchange rate more flexible. The executives are by Chinese authorities of stealing trade secrets and taking bribes.‖ the report noted. A cheaper renminbi makes Chinese goods less expensive when they are shipped to the United States. says Barker. <http://www. It seems China is flexing its economic and political muscle against the West in a show of bravado. 2012." according to the latest issue of Barron's. Date accessed January 2. equity markets and various stock sectors. China has defended its extensive censorship after Google threatened to withdraw from the country." It seems.nytimes. due to growing international trade isolationism. after adjusting for inflation. money supply and bank credit trends. editor of the three times weekly Momentum Strategies Report newsletter. that Beijing is "reassessing China's long-standing emphasis on opening its economy to foreign business. the elements for what could prove to be a trade war of epic proportions are already in place and the key figures are easily identifiable.Tariffs DA Page 2 of 8 1NC Shell 1/3 A) Uniqueness—The Obama administration is backing off labeling China as a currency manipulator now AP. and what could prove to be a mild long wave [economic] winter season this time around could plunge into a global depression. Then there was last week's Wall Street Journal report concerning conflict occurring over tire imports). That could lead to trade sanctions against China. B) Link—Protectionist measures like the plan would start a trade war with China." In his book. companies reported feeling unwelcome in China compared to 26% in 2009 and 23% in 2008.S. This marks at least the second time this year that the White House has taken a stand against China (the first formally labeling China as a "currency manipulator. ’11. the Obama Administration announced that it backs Google's decision to protest China's censorship efforts.‖ March 29. On Monday the WSJ ran an article under the headline.html>. but the administration delayed its release until after last month’s meetings." Then there is Internet search giant Google's threat to pull out of China over concerns of censorship of its Internet search results in that country.greenfaucet. however: allowed to get under way in these final years of a long wave winter. the Chinese currency is ―substantially undervalued‖ and its appreciation ―is insufficient and more progress is needed. The Treasury Department will ―press for policy changes that yield greater exchange rate flexibility‖ and ―level the playing field. "Pride goeth before destruction. the dollar and the U." Barker also observes that the storm clouds of trade wars are already forming on the horizon as we have moved further into the long wave economic "winter season.S. "The impact on global trade of increased protectionism and trade wars would be catastrophic. has criticized the administration for refusing to cite China for manipulating its currency. There's a touch of irony to this charge considering that much of China's technology was stolen from Western manufacturing firms which set up shop in that country. Tommy Hilfiger and Versace. India and China will play a major role in pulling the world of the long wave deflationary decline as their domestic economies begin to develop and grow. ―U.S.‖ The currency report evaluates exchange rate policies of all major American trading partners. Date accessed January 2. It also makes American goods more expensive in China. Barker adds a caveat. a former Massachusetts governor and a leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.and tilting toward promoting dominant state companies.S. rebalance from an over weighted consumption-oriented economy to a high-end producer economy. Both could increase America’s trade deficit with China. 2011. <http://www. which have accused China of artificially holding down the value of its currency. "all bets are off. The Treasury Department said the renminbi had appreciated 12 percent against the dollar in the last 18 months. ―America and the Next Major War. he would take that step on his first day in office. this decline will be far deeper and darker than necessary. The decision angered some manufacturing groups. If this happens. Additionally." he writes. As we shall see. Droke.com/2011/12/28/business/global/china-isnt-manipulating-currency-us-says. In a Reuters report." The paper observed that so far there's little evidence that American companies are pulling out of China but adds a growing number of multinational firms are "starting to rethink their strategy. natural resources.) ZD In the current phase of relative peace and stability we now enjoy.-China relations by saying that the human rights would not be "carved out" for certain countries. if elected. But what we can divine from financial history is that "hot" wars in a military sense often emerge from trade wars. "If trade wars are produced in the United States and other markets.) ZD WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration on Tuesday declined to label China a currency manipulator after seeing recent increases in the value of the renminbi compared with the dollar." He adds. which is on pace to reach a record high this year. . Our concern here is strictly of a financial nature. however. 2010. 38% of U.S." Writes Barker. "Jubilee on Wall Street. Treasury Department is expected to issue a report in April authorities in a wealthy province near Shanghai criticizing the quality of luxury clothing brands from the West. and a discussion of the geopolitical and military variables involved in the escalation of war is beyond the scope of this commentary." According to a poll conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China. Barker explains his belief that the industrial nations of Brazil. the high profile trial of four Rio Tinto executives in China is another example of the tables being turned on the West. and an haughty spirit before a fall. Last Wednesday the lead headline in the Wall Street Journal stated. It was scheduled to be released on Oct. Barker believes this will help the U. 2011. Yet one can't help thinking that this is exactly the sort of arrogance that typically precedes a major downfall. Romney said in October that.S. according to WSJ..S. Obama responded to a question as to whether the issue would cloud U. Declines to Say China Manipulates Its Currency. to gain trade advantages. Mitt Romney. the U. many are questioning when the next major war may occur and speculation is rampant as to major participants involved. "American Firms Feel Shut Out In China. the renminbi. (Clif Droke. This represents quite a change from years past when the long-standing complaint from the U. Adding yet further fuel to the controversy.. just as the Great Depression was far deeper and lengthier than it should have been. "The are and will demand more foreign goods if protectionist policies are allowed to gain force in Washington. As if to add insult to injury. "Business Sours on China. economy. Mr. In addition.‖ December 27. including Hermes. This would do nothing to ease tensions between the two nations and would probably lead one step closer to a trade war between China and the U. (Associated Press. which covers U.S. trade wars will almost certainly erupt and.. over the inferior quality of Chinese made merchandise. The trouble started a few weeks ago Google announced that it no longer supports China's censoring of searches that take place on the Google platform. ’10." author David Knox Barker devotes a chapter to how trade wars tend to be common occurrences in the long wave economic cycle of developed nations.com/technical-analysis/america-and-the-next-major-war/79314>. Russia.S. Still.
but since then the yuan has barely budged. Hill. Ben Landy. contributing writer for the Washington Times.6 percent against the dollar since the Asian giant instituted a more flexible regime in June — too little to prevent imports from China from surging to new highs in recent months. ’07. The stakes of trade override the ideological power of the Taiwan issue. 2007. as Beijing likely would retaliate against any U.S. Ohio Democrat and lead sponsor of the House tariff bill. http://chinaredux. ―Obama may face fury over Chinese currency.Tariffs DA Page 3 of 8 1NC Shell 2/3 C) Internal link: 1) Tariff measures spark a trade war. The United States’ role as the world’s superpower is dependent on its ability to lead economically. Ryan insists that his bill. 2012. Date accessed January 2. Ben holds a bachelor of arts degree from Yale University. 2) A US-China trade war would cause a hot war Landy. or a foregone conclusion in the future. publisher of the Atlantic Monthly. since there can be no sovereignty for China without economic growth. Economic conflict breeds military conflict. . ―Our communities will not see a sustained economic recovery until we deal with this issue.‖ September 14. China promised to effectively permit the value of its currency regime to rise this past spring to allay international criticism. export market — call the legislation protectionist and warn that it would spark a monumental trade war. In two days of hearings in the powerful House Ways and Means Committee starting Wednesday. two leading public policy think tanks in Washington. efforts to restrict its exports. National Journal. but might spill over into the realm of military aggression between these two world powers. Landy served in various research and project management positions at the Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies.‖ said Rep.But Caterpillar. Tim Ryan. Lawmakers from both parties are considering legislation that would penalize Beijing with stiff import tariffs on a wide array of goods if it does not allow a much stronger appreciation of the yuan.com/news/2010/sep/14/obama-may-face-fury-over-chinesecurrency/>. But I have little doubt that protectionist policies on both sides greatly increase the likelihood of conflict–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests. Microsoft and other major U. As many of you will know from reading this blog.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/#comments. which has at least 130 co-sponsors. businesses that export toChina — the fastest-growing U. complies with World Trade Organization rules.C. I certainly do not hope for war. Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company. (Patrice Hill.‖ Mr.S. 2010.) ZD The Obama administration this week may have to fend off a fight with Democratic allies in Congress who are angry about what they say is China’s refusal to end trade-distorting policies and who are threatening reprisals that businesses fear could start a trade war. and Government Executive magazines. I do not believe that war between the US and China is imminent. China’s ability to continue growing at a rapid rate takes precedence. The Chinese yuan has risen only 0. ’10. April 3.) ZD The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between the US and China will not be contained.S. D. (Ben Landy. ―China’s trade policies are putting American businesses out of work and American workers out of jobs. <http://www. which authorizes the Commerce Departmentto impose duties on imported Chinese goods if China continues to depress the value of its currency. legislators likely will demand to know why the administration has put little public pressure on China.washingtontimes.
relations with China might end up providing us with yet another example of this phenomenon. extent of this catastrophe would be far worse.S. Moreover. has plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars ―modernizing‖ its nuclear weapons and nuclear production facilities over the next decade. Quemoy and Matsu. though. don’t nuclear weapons deter a nuclear attack? Do they? Obviously. is to relations.) ZD While nuclear weapons exist. the bottom line for those Americans convinced that nuclear weapons safeguard them from a Today. it is claimed. But the loose nuclear threats of U. Both nations would be reduced to smoldering. Date accessed January 6. But the Kargil War of 1999. with nations employing their deadliest weapons. 2012. there haven’t been very many—at least not yet. Surely the United States would ―win‖ any nuclear war with China.S. nuclear arsenal is far greater than its Chinese counterpart. If the American and Chinese people are interested in to encourage these policies. for centuries national conflicts have led to wars. they should be working . Pakistan’s foreign secretary threatened that. government threatened to attack China with nuclear weapons during the Korean War and.S. The Chinese death toll in a nuclear war would be far higher. Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany. Furthermore. government officials really believed that nuclear deterrence worked. while the Chinese government has a total inventory of roughly three hundred. radioactive wastelands. should convince us that. and deepened U. for. and by the year 2020 it is expected to more than double its number of nuclear weapons that can hit the United States. the United States was ―asserting our own position as a Pacific power. only about forty of these Chinese nuclear weapons can reach the United States.net/14446>. later.‖ But need this lead to nuclear war? Not necessarily. and. conducted while the nuclear disarmament process is occurring. <http://www. NATO leaders didn’t feel deterred. ―COMMENTARY: Is a Nuclear War with China Possible?‖ November 28.huntingtonnews. they would not have resorted to championing ―Star Wars‖ and its modern variant. Indeed. government. Why are these vastly expensive—and probably unworkable—military defense systems needed if other nuclear powers are deterred from attacking by U. if U. should convince us that such wars can occur. even as the military ante is raised. there are two obvious actions that can be taken. nuclear saber-rattling persists. that U. as the nuclear powers have agreed to do but thus far have resisted doing.S. To avert the enormous disaster of a U. perhaps the behavior of national leaders will be more temperate. But what would that ―victory‖ entail? A nuclear attack by China would immediately slaughter at least 10 million Americans in a great storm of blast and fire.‖ Of course. The first is to get rid of nuclear weapons. between nuclear-armed India and nuclear-armed Pakistan. and generating chaos and destruction.S. and chillingly.S.S. there remains a danger that they will be used.China nuclear war. According to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. and Soviet government officials during the Cold War. The current deterioration of U. throughout the Cold War. Pakistan did move nuclear weapons toward its border. his country felt free to use ―any weapon‖ in its arsenal. while India. national missile defense.S.Tariffs DA Page 4 of 8 1NC Shell 3/3 D) Impacts—A US-China hot war risks nuclear war. Some pundits argue that nuclear weapons prevent wars between nuclear-armed nations. in turn. The U. (Lawrence S. readied its own nuclear missiles for an attack on Pakistan. increased the U. The U. radioactive debris sent aloft by the nuclear explosions would blot out the sun and bring on a ―nuclear winter‖ around the globe— destroying agriculture. military ties with other nations in the Pacific region. Moreover. The gathering tension between the United States and China is clear enough. government possesses over five thousand nuclear warheads. nuclear weapons would ―be used just exactly as you would use a bullet or anything else. President Dwight Eisenhower declared publicly.S. Disturbed by China’s growing economic and military strength. when both nations had vast nuclear arsenals.S.S. admittedly. And yet. Now that it does.S. military presence in Australia. The Chinese government is currently expanding its nuclear arsenal. creating worldwide famine. in that case. the U. government recently challenged China’s claims in the South China Sea. improve U. In the midst of the latter confrontation. NATO’s strategy was to respond to a Soviet conventional military attack on Western Europe by launching a Western nuclear attack on the nuclear-armed Soviet Union. After all. At the least. outweighing case Wittner. the conflict almost slipped into a nuclear war. there are signs that it could. China didn’t have nuclear weapons then. During the conflict. The second. in another decade the Chinese nuclear attack might be that the U. Wittner. it is estimated that the U.S. nuclear might? Of course. both the United States and China possess large numbers of nuclear weapons. ’11. if the war escalated. Also. during the conflict over the future of China’s offshore islands.S. 2011.-China ensuring their survival and that of the world. while leaving many more dying horribly of sickness and radiation poisoning. After all.
if the United States anti-renminbi currency bill came into force.‖ He quoted the proverb that. 2012. contributing author for LowTax Global Tax and Business Portal. Countervailing duties would be available to any US industry that could demonstrate that it has been injured by imports from the country with the undervalued currency. as business groups. <http://www. and it should now proceed for consideration by the House of Representatives. it is still doubtful if it will be ultimately approved. ’11. ―if you are ill. (Mary Swire. and early in the next. Swire. he added that China would have to make ―further responses. after an analysis of those currencies adjudged to be ―fundamentally misaligned‖. However. ―China Warns Again Against US Currency Bill. if the Act was approved.lowtax.‖ . Republican leaders and President Obama have expressed a wariness that unilateral action by the US could lead to disputes with China at the World Trade Organization and retaliation against US exports to China. Danyang went a long way to confirming their fears. When asked what specific measures the Chinese government could take.net/asp/story/front/China_Warns_Again_Against_US_Currency_Bill____52051. In response to a question from Xinhua.‖ and would ―seriously damage mutually-beneficial Sino-US relations. whilst also warning that current global uncertainties could seriously affect China’s foreign trade in the final quarter of this year. the Ministry of Commerce’s spokesman Shen Danyang confirmed that the Chinese government would definitely respond.) ZD In a press conference. the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act would.‖ October 21.‖ If the US insists on this action. Date accessed January 2. While not mentioning the RMB by name.html>.Tariffs DA Page 5 of 8 Link X/T: Currency bill Link: An anti-Chinese currency bill would kill US-Chinese relations. allow countervailing import duties to be imposed as an offset to the calculated amount of currency undervaluation. you do not force other people to take the medicine. 2011. The US Senate passed the currency bill earlier this month. he re-confirmed previous Ministry comments that any attempt by the US to force its trading partners to appreciate their currencies would be a ―grave violation of international rules.
military presence in Australia. ’11. According to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. government recently challenged China’s claims in the South China Sea. increased the U. The gathering tension between the United States and China is clear enough. After all. there remains a danger that they will be used. (Lawrence S. for centuries national conflicts have led to wars. 2011.huntingtonnews. the U.S. ―COMMENTARY: Is a Nuclear War with China Possible?‖ November 28.S. and deepened U.S. with nations employing their deadliest weapons. Date accessed January 6.net/14446>. Disturbed by China’s growing economic and military strength.Tariffs DA Page 6 of 8 Internal Link X/T: US-China relations The US will challenge Chinese economic progression with military advancement—empirics prove. military ties with other nations in the Pacific region. the United States was ―asserting our own position as a Pacific power.S.) ZD While nuclear weapons exist. The current deterioration of U. relations with China might end up providing us with yet another example of this phenomenon. 2012. <http://www.‖ . Wittner. Wittner. Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany.
and China still fail to understand one another's nuclear weapons policies. The borders of East Asia are still not entirely settled. the odds of starting an accidental nuclear conflict are much higher. and China have no such luxury -.theatlantic. U. disputed islands. disputed territories. But the greatest risk is probably to the states on China's periphery. If you think there's a 50-50 chance that someone is about non-nuclear. China has only about 200. even if you think the other side probably won't launch an ICBM your way.S. to lob a nuclear bomb at you. disputed shipping lanes.S. has the world's second-largest nuclear arsenal with around 5. which means that you have a greater incentive to launch a preemptive strike. And. Date accessed January 6. or deliberate foreign policy -. a rapid escalation that moves too fast for either side to defuse. . Though nuclear war between the U. It's not difficult to foresee one of them spiraling out of control. < http://www. something as simple as a shoddy translation has prevented the two major powers from coming together. nuclear bombs had to be delivered by sluggish bombers that could take hours to reach their targets and be recalled at any time.Tariffs DA Page 7 of 8 Impact X/T: Accidental War US-China war outweighs your impacts on timeframe. But the biggest potential conflict points are on water: disputed naval borders. Without this. These regional disputes have already led to a handful of small-scale naval skirmishes and diplomatic stand-offs. Neither the U. In fact. and on and on until one tiny kernel of doubt can lead to a full-fledged war that nobody wants. with one important difference: speed.S. associate editor for The Atlantic.S.S.it's a combination of mistrust between individual negotiators and poor communication. nor China knows when the other will or will not use a nuclear weapon against the other. But what if the country squaring off with China happens to have a defense treaty with the U. neither the U. nuclear or First.S. 2011. your incentive is to launch a preventative strike.? There's a near-infinite number of small-scale conflicts that could come up between the U. many of them bordering China. Here's how it would happen. and China is still extremely unlikely. and disputed underwater energy reserves. secrecy. nor China has any interest in any kind of war with one other.perhaps with only a few minutes -. and though none of them should escalate any higher than a few tough words between diplomats. and Chinese policy-makers would have to guess -.S. Second.if and when the other side would go nuclear. The greater risk is an accident. This is especially scary because both sides have good reason to err on the side of assuming nuclear war. This three-part process can move so quickly that the best way to avert a nuclear war is for both sides to have absolute confidence that they understand when the other will and will not use a nuclear weapon.S.) ZD After 10 years of close but unproductive talks. and China Could Spark Accidental Nuclear War. an unforeseen event that sparks a small conflict or threat of conflict. because the two countries do not fully understand when the other will and will not deploy nuclear weapons. 2011. third. Fisher. and the Soviet Union faced similar problems.S. the U. they'd also had a generation to sort out an extremely clear understanding of one another's nuclear policies. at times. But the U.S. and China. they actually might if they fear that you're misreading their intentions or if they fear that you might over-react. there are a number of small. This is especially true because you know the other side is thinking the exact same thing.S. The U. in turn raising their incentives. By the time that both countries developed the ICBMs that made global annihilation something that could happen within a matter of minutes. In other words. ’11. The U. ―5 Most Likely Ways the U. That's not due to hostility.com/international/archive/2011/10/5-most-likelyways-the-us-and-china-could-spark-accidental-nuclear-war/247616/>.000 warheads (first-ranked Russia has more warheads but less capability for flinging them around the globe). this means they have a greater incentive to launch a preemptive strike. so the danger of accidental war would seem to disproportionately threaten China. according to a disturbing report by Global Security Newswire. even on an accidental launch. During the first decades of the Cold War. it's the unpredictable events that are the most dangerous.‖ October 31. (Max Fisher.we inherited a world where total mutual destruction can happen as quickly as the time it takes to turn a key and push a button. Escalation was much slower and the risks of it spiraling out of control were much lower. just to be safe. a mutual misunderstanding of one another's intentions.
php/articles/show/id/22327>. But several scholars closely linked to foreign policy-making Korea's future. Though targeting Beijing will complicate US-China relations. commenting on the strategy document unveiled Thursday by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. Chinese analysts are keeping their cool. Neither the Foreign Ministry nor the Defense Ministry answered requests for comment. deputy head of the School of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing. head of the US department at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. a government-linked think tank. Beijing was mute Friday about the US strategic shift to its doorstep.) ZD Beijing .As the Pentagon puts China firmly in its sights with a new US defense strategy that makes Asia its top priority. Date accessed January 6. 2012. 2012. they say there is no reason to panic. and North Officially. "It does not mean that the US is trying to contain China" as it once sought to contain the former Soviet Union. staff writer for the Christian Science Monitor. ’12.com/index. Ford. That document calls for an increase in the number of US troops in Asia both in the face of uncertainty over China's strategic goals." says Jin Canrong. says Yuan Peng. ―China stays cool as new US defense strategy targets Asia. circles say they do not see the move as a fundamental shift in US attitudes to China.‖ January 6. <http://axcessnews." . "Military guys always seek the best but prepare for the worst. but they still hope to have positive relations. "They are hedging. (Peter Ford.Tariffs DA Page 8 of 8 AFF Answers ( ) No risk: China isn’t concerned by US military interests—Obama’s new Asian strategy proves.
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