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Daily Report: Forex

Previous Session Snapshot
USDINR pair opened the session flat and traded volatile in the day before ending the session with gains of close to half a percent following the bounce in the dollar index. Domestic equity markets continued their gains and Sensex ended the session at 19764.68, up by 50.54 points. In US, the new Congress got sworn in and the next showdown can come in February if not sooner when the USD 16.4 trillion debt limits on government borrowing will need to be raised. Republicans are likely to use this deadline as a bargaining chip for greater spending cuts. In the meantime, Moody's has said that fiscal cliff deal will not meaningfully improve the US government's debt ratios and continued to maintain negative outlook on Washington’s triple A rating. Manufacturing in the United States and China grew in December, suggesting the global economy was on course for moderate growth this year, even as the euro zone looked set to sink deeper into recession. US factory activity rebounded last month after stumbling to a 40-month low in November, with new export orders growing for the first time since May. The euro slipped below the 1.31 mark against the dollar, whereas the dollar index surged past the 80 levels. In much of Europe, the mood was downbeat as purchasing managers' surveys in the 17-nation euro zone showed economic decline among some of its biggest member countries. The number of unemployed people in Germany increased by 3K in December, following a 5K reading the previous month. Meanwhile, the German Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 6.9% for the fourth running month. Pound lost momentum against the dollar even after the British factory activity jumped unexpectedly to its fastest pace since September 2011, raising the chance that the economy eked out some growth at the end of 2012. Japanese yen gained against the dollar as risk aversion returned in the global markets.

RBI Reference Rates for 03.01.13
Currency
USD GBP EUR 100 YEN

Price Movements for 03.01.13
USD/INR
Open High Low Close Previous Close

Quote (in INR)
54.4153 88.2888 71.4945 62.3600

Cash
54.34 54.60 54.16 54.46 54.23

FII Investment in Equity and Debt
Date
02 Jan’13

Market
Equity Debt Equity Debt Equity Debt

Gross Purchase (` Crores)
-

Gross Sale (` Crores)
-

Net Flow (` Crores)
-

01 Jan’13

31 Dec’13 December 24, 2012

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Daily Report: Forex Important Economic Indicators
Details
WPI (Inflation) (For month of Nov)
Foreign Exchange Reserve (As on 14th Dec)

Net Change
-0.21
$1.637 billion 50.5 16.2

Closing Level
7.24%
$296.63 billion 19764.7 6009.3

Sensex Nifty

Technical Outlook
Symbols USD/INR EUR/INR JPY/INR GBP/INR Expiry
January’13 January’13 January’13 January’13

Close
54.73 71.68 62.93 88.42

S1
54.40 71.40 62.50 88.05

S2
54.15 71.05 62.10 87.70

S3
53.90 70.80 61.75 87.40

R1
55.05 72.20 63.30 88.75

R2
55.28 72.60 63.65 89.09

R3
55.60 72.95 63.95 89.50

Note –All prices for contracts refer to their respective exchanges and expressed in Indian Rupees (Rs.) for MCX-SX/NSE-CDS.

Forward Rates Premium/Discount
Detail 1 Month Forward 3 Month Forward 6 Month Forward 1 Year Forward Bid
31.75 92.25 175.25 313.5

Non Deliverable Forward
Ask
32.25 93.5 176.75 315.5

Detail 1 Month Forward 3 Month Forward 6 Month Forward 1 Year Forward

Bid
-

Ask
-

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Daily Report: Forex Economic Calendar

Date

IST

Country

Release

Consensus

Previous

Impact

04 Jan

12:30 P.M

EUROPE

German Retail Sales m/m

0.9 %

-1.3%

Medium

04 Jan

03:00:P.M

U.K

Services PMI

50.4

50.2

Medium

04 Jan

07:00:P.M

U.S

Non Farm employment Change

135K

146K

High

04 Jan

08:30:P.M

U.S

Unemployment Rate

7.7 %

7.7 %

High

04 Jan

08:30:P.M

U.S

Factory Orders m/m

0.4 %

0.8 %

Medium

Research Team
04 Jan 08:30:P.M U.S ISM Non Manufacturing PMI 54.3 54.7 Himanshu Arora | Analyst, Precious Metals and Medium Energy
Ashwani Kumar Harit | Analyst, Metals and Energy Niraj Kumar | Analyst, Base Metals Sugandha Sachdeva | In-charge-Metals, Energy & Currency
REL/RCL/CRD/TM/20/01

Email :metals.research@religare.com

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