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Nations in Transit 2012 Eurasia Findings:

Overall Democracy Scores

DECLINES in 5 states IMPROVEMENTS in 4 states STATUS QUO in 3 states


Most declines in Judicial Framework and Independence (5) and Civil Society (3).
Ukraine experienced the largest downgrade in the subregion with declines in all categories except Civil Society and Local Democratic Governance.

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Belarus Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Russia Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Armenia Moldova Ukraine Georgia

1 Strongest

7 Weakest

Overall Democracy Scores, NIT 2012

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

2012 Overview: Eurasian States


Weakest Electoral Process 1 Civil Society Independent Media National Democratic Governance Local Democratic Governance Judicial Independence Corruption

7 Strongest Ukraine Georgia Moldova Russia Belarus Azerbaijan Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan

The failure of virtually any of the countries of Eurasia to shed old governance habits and end monopolies on political and economic power has been one of the greatest disappointments of the past two decades. Regimes in countries as diverse as Azerbaijan, Belarus, Russia, and Uzbekistan have taken steps to adapt to new circumstances and maintain power.
Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

2012 Overview: New EU Members


Weakest Electoral Process 1 Civil Society Independent Media National Democratic Governance Local Democratic Governance Judicial Independence Corruption

7 Strongest Romania Bulgaria Hungary Slovakia Czech Republic Latvia Lithuania Estonia Poland Slovenia

On the whole, the 10 new EU member states have performed well on Nations in Transit democracy indicators, but reform efforts have flagged in recent years. However, the role of money in politics and economically weakening media sectors are among the issues that should raise concern about the depth and durability of democracy in the region.
Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

2012 Overview: The Balkans


Weakest 1 Electoral Process Civil Society Independent Media National Democratic Governance Local Democratic Governance Judicial Indepenence Corruption

7 Strongest Kosovo Bosnia & Herzegovina Albania Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Croatia

Despite public aspirations for moving toward the EU, most reforms stagnated in the Balkans during 2011, with multiple declines in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Macedonia.

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

Year-on-Year Democratic Decline in Hungary NIT 20082012


Strongest 1 Electoral Process Civil Society Independent Media National Democratic Governance Local Democratic Governance Judicial Framework and Independence Corruption Democracy Score

NIT Years 2008

2009 2010

4 2011 2012

7 Weakest

The report notes Hungarys year-on-year performance as the most glaring example of democratic decline among the newer European Union (EU) members, where the combination of poorly rooted traditions of democratic practice, resilient networks of corruption, low levels of public trust, and shaky economic conditions have hampered indelible democratic reforms.

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

Ukraines Downward Trajectory, NIT 20082012


Strongest 1 National Democratic Governance Electoral Process Civil Society Independent Media Judicial Local Democratic Framework and Governance Independence Corruption Democracy Score

NIT Years

2008
4

2009
2010 2011

2012

7 Weakest

Ukraine, which saw a brief opening in democratic space after the Orange Revolution in 2004, has seen significant decline in an alarmingly short period of time. Under the Yanukovich government, Ukraine's democracy ratings worsened in five categories year-onyear, with a steep decline in judicial independence and an overall democracy score that is rapidly approaching its preOrange Revolution level.
Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

Declines in Judicial Independence NIT 20092012


Strongest

Bulgaria

Hungary

Albania

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Russia NIT Years 2009

2010 2011

2012

7
Weakest

Declines were most numerous in the judicial independence category in 2011, appearing in every subregion covered by Nations in Transit. A total of eight countriesAlbania, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraineregressed on this indicator.
Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

Mixed Progress on Democratic Reform in the Balkans NIT 20082012


Average Change in NIT Democracy Score, Survey Years 20082012
0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.08 -0.1 Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

Negative Change

Positive Change

Deterioration in Media Environment in New EU Countries NIT 20082012


Slovakia

Romania

Poland

NIT Years
2012 Lithuania 2011 2010 2009 2008

Hungary

Czech Republic

Bulgaria

Strongest

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Weakest

NIT Independent Media Ratings


Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011. Latvia, Slovenia and Estonia are excluded because they experienced no changes in Independent Media between 2008-2012.

Democracy Gap Across Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia, NIT 2012
National Democratic Governance
NIT Year 2012

Russia
Corruption Electoral Process

Kosovo Romania Bulgaria

Estonia
Judicial Independence Civil Society

Local Democratic Governance

Independent Media

Countries with the least democratic ratings take up the greatest area on the graph. For example, a country with the absolute worst rating would fill the entire graph, while a country with a perfect democratic score would not be visible at all. Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

Declines in Civil Society NIT 20112012

Azerbaijan
4.00 NIT Civil Society Ratings 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Fearing the demonstration effect of uprisings in the Arab Middle East, authoritarian regimes in Belarus, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan cracked down hard on protesters in 2011, using the full weight of pliant judiciaries to preempt and punish dissent.

NIT Judicial Independence Ratings

Declines in Judicial Independence NIT 20112012

Azerbaijan
4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00

Belarus

Kazakhstan

2011

2012

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

Ukraines Democracy Score is Rapidly Approaching its preOrange Revolution Level


NIT Years

2004
3.00 3.50 NIT Democracy Scores 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

Hungary is close to falling out of the Consolidated Democracies category

NIT Democracy Scores

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

Hungarys Democracy Scoredeclines since NIT 2006


NIT Years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

NIT Democracy Scores

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

Consolidated Democracies Score 1.003.00