SECOND INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES

LISBON, PORTUGAL, 29-30 APRIL, 2009 Auditorium Ordem dos Engenheiros - Av. Antnio Augusto de Aguiar, 3-D

PROGRAMME

Wednesday 29th April

08.30 - 09.30 09.30 - 10.00 10.00 - 10.30 10.30 - 11.00 11.00 13.30 REGISTRATION OPENING CEREMONY INVITED LECTURE SEISMIC TOPIC Vladmir Kossoborov - Earthquake prediction: 20 years of global experiment. COFFEE BREAK ORAL PRESENTATIONS SEISMIC TOPIC A. Peresan et al. - Fully reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake predictions by CN and M8S algorithms: six years of real-time testing in Italy G.F. Panza et al. - Time dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment: Contributions from pattern recognition techniques and earth-observation Luis Matias et al. - Relationship between seismicity and crustal faults in the gulf of cadiz first results from the nearest obs network N.A.Sycheva - On the statistical approach to the calculation of seismotectonic deformations Ikram Kerimov and Seymur Kerimov - New Theory of the earthquake prediction using anomalous behavior of microseisms Nobuo Hurukawa et al. Periodic Upward Migration Model for Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes in Vrancea, Romania. Susana Custdio and J. Archuleta Parkfield Earthquakes: Characteristic or Complementary? Hongsheng Ma et al. - Research on large earthquake activity in China continent after Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake Shoubiao Zhu - A study on the dynamical mechanisms of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms=8.0, earthquake, China: implication to earthquake prediction Wang Lin-ying and Su Xiaolan Temporal Vp/Vs Variation Characteristics in Different Zones of China Capital Circle Area Before and After Wenan Earthquake. LUNCH Auditorium Hall INVITED LECTURE - NEOTECTONICS PALEOSEISMOLOGY TOPIC Thomas K. Rockwell - Long Paleoseismic Records of Earthquakes on the San Jacinto and San Andreas Faults: Implications for Making Hazard Estimates From Short Paleoseismic Records. 15.00 - 16.30 ORAL PRESENTATIONS - NEOTECTONICS PALEOSEISMOLOGY TOPIC Meghraoui Mustapha - Constraint of the Seismic Cycle and Earthquake Forecast from Archeoseismology and Paleoseismology: The Dead Sea Fault Example. M. Ferry Episodic Behavior of the Dead Sea Fault in Jordan. D. Fitzenz and M. Ferry A View on the Recurrence of Whole Segment Event from Individual Events and Cummulated Offset Data. Jos Madeira and Brum da Silveira Paleoseismicity studies: Data from the Central Group of Islands J. Cabral, et al. The 1909 Benavente earthquake : search for the source. H. Perea The Catalan Seismic Crisis (1427 and 1428; NE Iberian Peninsula): Geological Sources and Earthquake Triggering. COFFEE BREAK INVITED LECTURE ELECTROMAGNETIC TOPIC V. Lapenna - Self-Potential Tomography for geohazard monitoring: state-of-the-art and future challenges. Jacques Zlotnicki et al. Mitigation of earthquake disasters: contribution of electromagnetic methods ORAL PRESENTATIONS ELECTROMAGNETIC TOPIC A. Negarestani - Electrical modeling of the radon migration inside the rocks for earthquake prediction. S. Piscitelli - Electrical imaging of active faults: recent results in Apennine chain. DINNER - Ordem dos Engenheiros Restaurant (offered by Academia de Engenharia)

13.30 14.30 14.30 15.00

16.30 17.00 17.00 18.00

18.00 18.30

20.00 22.30

SECOND INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES

LISBON, PORTUGAL, 29-30 APRIL, 2009 Auditorium Ordem dos Engenheiros - Av. Antnio Augusto de Aguiar, 3-D

PROGRAMME

Thursday 30th April

09.00 - 10.00 INVITED LECTURE MULTIPARAMETER AND GEODESIC CASE STUDIES
H. Woith et al. Lessons learned from the Turkish-German project on earthquake research Max Wyss et al. - Formulating and testing the hypothesis of precursory quiescence in the

framework of the European CSEP Center. 10.00 11.00 ORAL PRESENTATIONS MULTIPARAMETER AND GEODESIC CASE STUDIES
C. Catita et al. - Geodetic contributions to the study of seismotectonics in Azores Region. Sandra Heleno et al. - Major (active?) fault zones in the Lisbon area show signature in PS

interferometry maps.
Nicoleta Cadicheanu - Long-term quasi-period tendencies of the semidiurnal tidal influences

on the intermediate-depth seismic activity zones detailed with statistical tidal tomography
Y. Zhang et al. A synthetic method for earthquake prediction by multidisciplinary data.

11.00 11.30 11.30 13.15

COFFEE BREAK Meghraoui M. - Coastal Uplift Deduced from InSAR and Long Term Folding Analysis in Algeria.
Valerio Tramutoli - Satellite Monitoring of Thermal space-time transients in Earthquake Active regions. M.A Baptista et al. - Tsunami Research in Portugal Results of TRANSFER, NEAREST and

ERSTA projects.
A. Ribeiro et al. Undecidability of Earthquake Faulting Implications for Prediction. J. F .Borges et al. Simulations of Strong Ground Motion in Sw Iberia for the November 1st,

1755 (M~8.5) Earthquake

G. Madureira and A. Ruano Seismic Event Detection with artificial neural networks

13.15 14.30 14.30 16.30

LUNCH Auditorium Hall Norio Matsumoto - Overview of Hydrological and Geochemical Researches for Earthquake Prediction in Japan.
J. Fonseca and M. P. Matias Unusual sensitivity of ground water piezometric level to small

earthquake in the Lower Tagus Valley

S. M. Barbosa et al. Time Series Analysis of Radon Measurements: Perspectives and Challenges.

G. Purcaru Forecasting the large earthquakes in Vrancea (Romania), and the earthquake predictability problem
A. Campos Costa Report on a field trip to Abruzzo, Italy Earthquake

16.30 - 17.00 17.30 - 18.30

COFFEE BREAK ROUND TABLE G. Panza; T. Rockwell; J. Zlotnicki; M. Wyss; L. A. Mendes Victor; C. S. Oliveira.

18.30 19.00

CLOSING CEREMONY

SECOND INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES

LISBON, PORTUGAL, 29-30 APRIL, 2009 Auditorium Ordem dos Engenheiros - Av. Antnio Augusto de Aguiar, 3-D

PROGRAMME

Friday 1st May

FIELD TRIP TO BENAVENTE CITY

Benavente is the epicentral area of the ML = 6.3 1909, 23rd April earthquake that caused large impact on the populations and constructions. It is located 40km from Lisbon to the NE. A field trip to the epicentral area will take place on May 1st, the day following the 2nd International Seminar on Prediction of Earthquakes. All participants are invited to join this visit which is supported by the City Council of Benavente (Cmara Municipal de Benavente).

PROGRAMME
09.00 10.00 10.30

Departure from the Ordem dos Engenheiros/ Academia de Engenharia headquarters in a bus Arrival to Samora Correia Session at the Auditorium (Palcio do Infantado) with presentations by:

Rui Vieira (General aspects of the earthquake) Joo Carvalho e Joo Cabral (Neotectonics of the region) Paula Teves Costa e Josep Battlo (Computation of Earthquake Parameters)

12.00 13.00 14.00

Benavente City Visit (Exhibition at the Museum) Reception Return to Lisbon

SPONSORS