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The Journal of Energy and Development volume 36, number 2, spring 2011 (copyright 2012) http://www.scribd.

com/doc/115706316/The-Journal-of-Energy-and-Development-vol-36-no-2-copyright2012 Mohamed Nagy Eltony and Mohammed A. Al-Awadi, “Kuwait Energy Demand Model for Forecasting and Planning – Revisited,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 36, no. 2 (spring 2011, copyright 2012), pp. 135–163. Abstract: This paper contains a discussion of the Kuwait energy demand model and how the original model, which was built in 1997, was upgraded in 2006, along with its simulation under various scenarios for the 2005-2015 time period. As domestic energy demand surges upwards in Kuwait, there are increasing economic ramifications as less energy is available for export to world markets. This research examines the growth of Kuwaiti energy demand in the residential, commercial, public, and industrial sectors. The scenarios examined include a base-line, moderate, extreme, and the complete removal of subsidies; additionally, the effects on demand are presented along with the policy implications. Under the assumption of the base-line scenario, there will be no incentives for energy consumers to conserve and aggregate demand is expected to grow at about 2.2 percent annually. The moderate scenario projects a compound annual growth in aggregate domestic energy consumption of about 1.02 percent annually throughout the forecast period due to increasing energy prices, which were effective in slowing down the domestic demand growth. The aim of the extreme scenario is to examine the response by various sectors to a deliberate shock in energy prices, which results in a projected compound annual growth rate for the aggregate energy usage of about 0.91 percent. Finally, the removal of energy subsidies results in a severe slowing in the growth rate of total domestic energy consumption. Keywords: Kuwait energy demand, energy forecasting and simulation, fuel substitutions, energy subsidies Sadek Melhem, Michel Terraza, and Mohamed Chikhi, “Cyclical Mackey-Glass Model for Oil Bull Seasonals,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 36, no. 2 (spring 2011, copyright 2012), pp. 165-178. Abstract: The article proposes an innovative way to model oil “bull seasonals” that addresses cyclical speculation patterns in the oil markets. Since oil prices are affected by marked seasonal behavior during two periods of the year (summer and winter), a modification of the Mackey-Glass equation is proposed to capture this effect. Based on monthly data for West Texas intermediate (WTI) oil prices, the Seasonal Cyclical Mackey-Glass estimates indicate that seasonal interactions between heterogeneous speculators with different expectations may be responsible for pronounced swings in prices over both periods. Moreover, the periodic frequency  / 3 (referring to a period of 6 months) appears to be persistent over time.

Keywords: oil bull seasonal, seasonal speculations, heterogeneous agents model, Seasonal Cyclical Mackey-Glass models Nourah AlYousef and Mohammed A. Aljarrah, “The Demand for Oil Products in Saudi Arabia,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 36, no. 1 (spring 2011, copyright 2012), pp. 179196. Abstract: In oil-exporting countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the consumption of petroleum products has implications for the value of exports. Because Saudi Arabia’s revenue depends on those exports, the share of oil exports declines as the domestic consumption of petroleum products increases. Gasoline, kerosine, diesel, and fuel oil are Saudi Arabia’s prime petroleum products, constituting 21 percent, 3 percent, 11.6 percent, and 33.45 percent, respectively, of all oil products in 2010. The demand function is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, also known as a “bounds testing” procedure. It is found that a long-run relationship exists for gasoline, kerosine, and diesel but not for fuel oil. The results of the analysis show that demand for gasoline, kerosine, and diesel are likely to increase significantly for a given increase in the gross domestic product. However, they are relatively inelastic to price changes in the long and short run. The error correction model shows that gasoline, kerosine, and diesel demand adjust to their long-run equilibrium at a relatively moderate rate. Finally, the ARDL model is used to forecast petroleum product consumption for the years 2011 to 2016. Keywords: demand for oil products, Saudi Arabia, gasoline, forecasting, ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) Mehdi Sadeghi, Alimorad Sharifi, and Masoumeh Torki, “Social Cost Analysis for Electricity Generation Based on Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Iran,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 36, no. 2 (spring 2011, copyright 2012), pp. 197–218. Abstract: Many studies during the past 20 years have shown that air pollution causes serious damage to human health and the environment. The greenhouse effect and climate change have significant consequences in society. The electricity generated from fossil fuels contributes a considerable share to these environmental negative externalities. In this paper, we investigate the damaging impacts on human health resulting from an Iranian thermal power plant. Existing data on the relationship between human health degradation and ground concentrations of the analyzed pollutants have been used. Our findings indicate that the external cost of sulfur dioxide emissions is not negligible and should lead the energy authorities to consider emissions taxation. Keywords: electricity generation, external costs, Shahid Rajaee Power Plant, greenhouse gases, global warming, Iran, sulfur dioxide emissions

George Baker, “The Political Science of Industrial Safety: Have the Deeper Lessons of the Deepwater Horizon Been Learned?” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 36, no. 2 (spring 2011, copyright 2012), pp. 219–225 Abstract: This article examines what went wrong in the safety culture on the Deepwater Horizon offshore oil rig accident at the Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico and what lessons we can learn regarding industrial safety. The author provides a description of the safety audit that took place prior to the accident and then asks, what constitutes a “safety culture?” The differences between industrial safety and occupational safety are outlined. The discussion that follows seeks to abstract from the facts and lessons of the Deepwater Horizon accident in order to gain a higher level overview. The goal is to glimpse the possible shape of a new paradigm of accountability in relation to accident prevention and liability that will apply to industrial infrastructure in general, and not just to offshore facilities in the oil industry. Keywords: industrial safety, Deepwater Horizon, Gulf of Mexico, Macondo, Pemex Burcu Kiran, “New Evidence of the Linkage between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the United States,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 36, no. 2 (spring 2011, copyright 2012), pp. 227–241. Abstract: In this paper, using annual data over the period from 1949 through 2009, we investigate the linkage between energy consumption by resource (coal, renewable energy, electricity, natural gas) and economic growth in the United States within a fractional cointegration approach. The obtained results indicate that the only evidence of fractional cointegration is found between coal consumption and economic growth of the United States. Keywords: energy, energy consumption, energy resources, coal, renewable energy, electricity, natural gas, economic growth, fractional cointegration, United States Chin Wen Cheong, “Long-Memory Dynamic Power Volatility and Market Risk Evaluation of Brent Crude Oil Markets,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 36, no. 2 (spring 2011, copyright 2012), pp. 243–272. Abstract: This study investigates the long memory time-varying volatility representations, which switched from the Taylor’s (conditional standard deviation) to that of Ding et al. (power of conditional standard deviation), and lastly to the Bollerslev’s (conditional variance) specifications in Brent’s crude oil market. In addition to the dynamic volatility analysis, we also have included the heavy-tailed, leverage effect, and long-memory properties in the time-varying volatility modeling under Chung’s specification. The empirical results suggested that the intensity of the impact of news in the Brent market has a fading

tendency when switched from Taylor’s specification toward Bollerslev’s specification. Surprisingly, the volatility persistence is consistent regardless of the types of model specifications, which is contradictory to most of the global stock and foreign exchange markets where the persistence intensity is more toward the unity power of Taylor’s specification. For model adequacy evaluations, the heavy-tailed, longmemory, and endogenously estimated power transformation models indicated superior performance in out-of-sample forecasts. Finally, these findings are applied further in the long and short trading positions of market risk evaluations of the Brent market. Keywords: dynamic volatility, long memory, crude oil market, market risk, ARCH model