The UN and the New World Order (The Global Observatory, 27/06/2012

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Hugh Roberts A burgeoning literature seeks to understand and make recommendations for the emerging global order. It’s an uneven genre and sometimes descends into prophecy, but it’s often brilliant and undeniably influential. What does it have to say about the United Nations and its many parts? Almost nothing. Hundreds of pages turn without any mention of the UN, and most tend to be pro forma references to Security Council reform. Let’s cast an eye over some of the most notable publications of the last year or so on the emerging global political order. Nobody in Turtle Bay would look to the school of Robert Kagan for support. In The World America Made, Kagan’s realism and his nationalism are at odds: he wants to dismiss international institutions as inconsequential but also boast about America inventing them. What is troubling is the absence of interest in the UN from those in whose worldview it would find a natural home. John Ikenberry, a Princeton professor of international affairs, is the leading advocate of a grand strategy to bind emerging powers into a liberal order. As you would expect, reforming the UN is one of the recommendations listed at the end of his Liberal Leviathan. And yet his book contains no engagement with the UN beyond a few brief and mostly superficial mentions. David Marquand, an Oxford historian, has a rich sense of what should be the best legacy of Western hegemony, and a preoccupation with European integration - a project with a profound affinity with the UN–yet the UN is absent. From a more literary perspective, Amin Maalouf is the most explicitly compassionate writer on the new world order and the most concerned with reconciling cultures and civilizations. But you’d look in vain for the UN in his book, Disordered World. Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group maps four scenarios for the world: cooperation or conflict between the US and China; a world of regions; or a concert of nations working through some variant of the G20. According to Bremmer, the most collaborative international system we can hope for is therefore one that predates the

League of Nations by over a century. When Charles Kupchan, who passes for an unconventional thinker in Washington, came to the International Peace Institute to promote his book No One’s World, the UN building loomed behind him but he had little or nothing to say about it. When commentators do raise the post-1945 order, it’s often first in terms of the Bretton Woods institutions, despite the fact they were intended as subordinate parts of the UN system. “The United Nations” Parag Khanna tells us in his modestly titled How to Run the World “is barely spoken of anymore” and one almost feels grateful to him for airing the fact. If the UN deserves a place in the debate about the emerging world order it’s no use blaming these authors, many of who are deeply impressive. The UN’s absence signals that those of us involved with it have not been able to keep up a conversation with the candor, clarity, vitality and vision that would engage outsiders. Someone who has promoted exactly such a conversation is Sir Brian Urquhart. He once told me he thought he should have formed a center for scholars and writers to come and work on the UN. It is notable that all the think tanks and university centers related to the UN are named after shared themes and not the thing itself. There is a ‘UN University’ in Japan, but you wouldn’t know it. And a profound contribution to the traditional lacuna in scholarship on the UN is the tradition by which it rarely declassifies or prioritizes its archives. Between day-to-day fire fighting, there are ways for senior figures in the UN to influence the debate on the new world order. For example, Dag Hammarskjold’s vision of the international service is germane to any new configuration of global power, but how many people know what it is? Mark Malloch Brown describes his considerable efforts to promote the UN in his lucid memoirpolemic The Unfinished Global Revolution. A number of places in the UN system could contribute to strategic thinking on the future of global governance, and Tom Weiss has described the steps by which the UN could begin to fulfill its intellectual potential. Eventually, the UN system would benefit immeasurably from its own version of the US State Department’s Policy Planning Unit, the pre-eminent think-tank-in-a-government, which has incubated so many strategists.

regardless of what happens following its bizarre leadership battle. I found in my interviews with Antonio Patriota. Stills and Nash.dot.at. Hugh Roberts writes on international affairs and has worked for UNDP in New York. 08/08/2012) crowd-pleasers First there was Crosby. Perhaps. Brazil is not your typical emerging power. Davutoglu and Patriota. The foreign ministers of Sweden. and I found a similar reflex on the part of young Brazilian diplomats. Brasilia doesn’t just want a seat on the Security Council. Please welcome to the stage Bildt. Cairo and Kabul and as a visiting fellow at the LSE. It is not even your typical rising democracy.I’m writing this in Brazil.hotmail. Lake and Palmer.com Diplomatic (Monocle. As a result the formal multilateral organisations that have helped to run the world since the end of the Second World War are all struggling for legitimacy. Instead. it wants the UN to work. . We’re living in a fractured world. its military is overstretched and the role of peacemaker and policeman is not one it has ever felt comfortable with. It’s time for the UN to join the debate. Turkey and Brazil may not have much musical talent but as a diplomatic dream team they have the potential to be far more influential than any collection of aging rock stars. smaller diplomatic players and – to borrow a phrase – coalitions of the willing have an opportunity to take advantage of the lack of coherent leadership. Then there was Emerson. But it’s proof there are new allies and opportunities awaiting the UN in the new global order. A diplomatic supergroup. The one remaining superpower is in economic straits. a foreign minister as fluent and forward thinking on the UN as the UN could hope for. while China. The European Union is preoccupied with rescuing its currency and saving the union. it’s time for a new supergroup. He can be contacted at HughFRoberts. will continue to follow a purely mercantilist foreign policy.

who has racked up more air miles than any other foreign minister. The addition of Bildt. He sometimes talks a better game than he plays but he’s certainly become an influential player during the Arab uprisings. all three have interesting. charismatic foreign ministers.Individually Sweden. That experience shouldn’t necessarily leave them scarred though. engaging. Carl Bildt is widely respected in Europe and beyond and as a former prime minister he also brings leadership experience. packing more side-room bilaterals into summits than most foreign ministers have luxurious five-course hot banquets. constantly on the road. suggesting it wouldn’t be a stretch for the trio to work together on a more formal basis. Finally. Such an arrangement would have to be handled carefully and would probably need the tacit support of the US but on certain occasions a performance by Bildt. there’s Antonio Patriota. so tightly pluggedin to the EU. Importantly. President Lula and Prime Minister Erdogan tried to strike a deal with Iran on uranium enrichment but the US quickly distanced itself from the agreement. is a one-man diplomatic dervish. Steve Bloomfield is foreign editor for Monocle. Ahmet Davutoglu. leaving the Brazilians and Turks embarrassed. a career diplomat who – under President Dilma Rousseff – has been able to bring Brazilian foreign policy back to Itamaraty after the diplomatic grandstanding of President Lula. Turkey and Brazil can all talk to different parts of the world that traditional superpowers struggle to engage with. Were these three men to combine their talents and their contacts they could form an impressive diplomatic trio. . Brazil and Turkey have admittedly tried this before and it was not a happy experience. Davutoglu and Patriota could be just what the crowd is after. would only increase its effectiveness. The three all appear to like each other too. The fact that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was willing to meet Lula and Erdogan shows how effective a diplomatic super group could be.

de fato. . contam-se a presidente brasileira. O desafio que Dilma e Patriota enfrentam como servidores públicos é assustador. fazendo uma violação de soberania excepcional para cada esforço de colaboração em lugares como a Líbia. O desafios eram grandes para todo o governo de Dilma. É ANALISTA DO CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE Enquanto os Estados Unidos avançam de maneira hesitante para aceitar a nova realidade multipolar do mundo. e uma presença constante no cenário brasileiro e internacional. FOREIGN POLICY. parece quase insuperável. Fernando Henrique Cardoso. para muitos. não somente seu mentor. outros países estão trabalhando ativamente para estabelecer novas regras para todas as nações seguirem na nova era. extremamente influente. 28/02/2012) Brazil's New Swagger (versão original) A potência em ascensão da América do Sul está se afirmando. e seu respeitadíssimo chanceler. Paulo. Celso Amorim. os mais importantes da história moderna de seu país. 02/03/2012 e Foreign Policy. Já o antecessor de Patriota. Ela sucede a dois presidentes que foram.A nova influência do Brasil (O Estado de S. provavelmente. a quem é creditada a estabilização da economia brasileira após anos de volatilidade. Cada um deles segue as pegadas de um formidável antecessor. muito maior e. Antonio Patriota. admitidamente. O desafio de Dilma é. mas um integrante do pequeno punhado dos líderes mundiais mais importantes da última década. dando um passo atrás para cada passo à frente. Dilma Rousseff. e o antecessor imediato dela. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. mas um grande poder traz sempre grandes responsabilidades DAVID ROTHKOPF. foi também formidável. Entre os que estão na linha de frente desse esforço.

da não proliferação nuclear ao desenvolvimento. e apesar de enfrentar grandes desafios domésticos e internacionais. Dilma. Essa posição incomum é fortalecida ainda mais pelo fato de o Brasil não estar investindo tão pesadamente quanto as outras potências ascendentes em capacidade militar. e temos laços duradouros com muitas nações desenvolvidas e emergentes do mundo.China. observa Patriota. aliás. e aos olhos de observadores próximos. E Patriota está dando continuidade com calma.diplomacia. aliás. alavancagem econômica. Enquanto Cardoso e Lula alcançaram a grandeza enfrentando e resolvendo alguns dos problemas mais ruinosos do passado brasileiro. a presidente já alcançou um índice de popularidade superior ao de Lula num ponto equiparável de seu mandato.nem. interesses comuns. ela está fazendo algo que nenhum líder latino-americano fez anteriormente. ao trabalho desbravador de Amorim para estabelecer o Brasil como um líder entre as grandes potencias mundiais. por alguma grande potência tradicional do mundo. "Temos uma grande vantagem". Não é por coincidência. o embaixador dos Estados Unidos no Brasil. que. com grande habilidade. "Não temos inimigos reais. o país é um dos poucos a efetivamente apostar seu futuro na aplicação sábia do chamado "poder brando" .. Aliás. . como observou Tom Shannon. concentrou sua atenção também na criação de oportunidades e num claro caminho para o futuro do Brasil. da estabilização da economia ao enfrentamento da desigualdade social. após um ano no cargo. sob o comando de Lula e Amorim e de Dilma e Patriota.No entanto. nem grandes rivais históricos ou contemporâneos entre as fileiras das potências mais importantes. Mas o governo de Dilma também está rompendo com o passado.. vem ganhando força ao traduzir o crescimento consistente em casa e a diplomacia ativa no exterior em redes internacionais efetivas. sem deixar de reconhecer o trabalho que resta a ser feito. Índia e Rússia . nem lutas em nossas fronteiras. De seu foco em educação a seu compromisso com ciência e tecnologia passando por programas inovadores como "Ciência Sem Fronteiras". em áreas que vão das mudanças climáticas ao comércio." Essa é uma condição que não é desfrutada por nenhum dos outros Bric . o Brasil. mas que se mostrou uma fórmula aprovada na Ásia.

assumirá sem hesitação que merece seu lugar à mesa. para a comunidade internacional operar de fato unida. Por exemplo. Ele está indo além da era da política externa brasileira em que era inovador fazer o país olhar para fora de sua região e jogar um papel ativo nos assuntos globais. ela precisa fazê-lo sob regras não só coletivamente estabelecidas. antecipou o início de uma era em que potências regionais e emergentes. vulnerável) em uma que conta mais para o crescimento futuro com as indústrias de valor agregado.ª Guerra refletida na estrutura de poder do Conselho de . como Turquia com Síria ou China com Irã. em que o Brasil. para um período. a intervenção na Líbia sancionada pela ONU. Patriota esteve em Nova York por achar que um dos primeiros experimentos dessa era. que fique claro. em especial em países como os Estados Unidos. e a formação de mais cientistas e engenheiros. Ele não era nenhum admirador de Muamar Kadafi. a pesquisa e desenvolvimento. os brasileiros estão entre as potências emergentes que pressionam por reformas reais na maneira como as instituições internacionais são conduzidas. são fundamentais para se alcançar os objetivos da comunidade internacional. na condição de país com uma das cinco maiores economias e populações do mundo.Está comprometida em transformar o Brasil de economia com base em recursos naturais e. Essa atitude provoca irritações. Essa é uma razão por que a iniciativa turco-brasileira de 2010 para costurar um acordo para desarmar a crise nuclear iraniana foi tão irritante para Washington. Eles acham que a ordem pós-2. num futuro não muito distante. mas também coletivamente honradas. dependente (o que significa dizer. portanto. com certeza. Mas tem o sentimento inabalável de que. A medida. Patriota reconhece que os Estados Unidos. que estão acostumados a operar segundo suas próprias regras. Patriota também está olhando para frente. ele gostaria de ver Obama avançar mais. Dito isso. por mais ingênua que tenha parecido para alguns. sob o comando de Barack Obama. Com base nisso. de líder mundial em agronegócios e energia. e outras potências estabelecidas avançaram bastante para se adaptar a essa nova realidade. saiu dos trilhos quando a missão autorizada pelas Nações Unidas de proteger o povo líbio foi deixada de lado pelas forças internacionais que intervieram tornando-se antes uma missão de mudança de regime.

a simultânea ascensão de novas potências como Brasil. mais recentemente parecendo recuar dessa ideia .oferecendo apoio a uma participação permanente indiana. Dito isso. mas não brasileira. Em sua esteira houve a breve ilusão de que havíamos entrado num momento de fim da História em que uma filosofia de mercados e democracia liderada pelo Consenso de Washington adquiria uma espécie de status de monopólio no mercado das ideias.e entramos em uma nova era. o Brasil entre elas. É difícil discordar dos brasileiros ou de outros sobre esses pontos. outros terão de preencher o vazio criado pelo redimensionamento da influência americana. Mas depois vieram as tragédias gêmeas. E a inconsistência mostrada pelo governo Obama nessa frente . o debate era binário: soviéticos ou americanos. precisam reconhecer que.Segurança da ONU e na concessão automática da liderança do Banco Mundial a um americano está obsoleta e que já é hora de alguma coisa que reflita as realidades do século 21 e seja mais consistente com os princípios democráticos sobre os quais essas instituições foram estabelecidas. tanto do Estado. mas abertura a uma multidão de ideias. Em meu livro. O Brasil está tentando fazê-lo e. Ao mesmo tempo. Nesse mundo. China. Mas ele é também um período de filosofias políticas concorrentes sobre o papel. O que Dilma e Patriota estão tentando fazer na frente internacional é. eu diria. tão revolucionário quanto o que seus antecessores fizeram.tem sido irritante e. neste novo mundo. no Conselho de Segurança.. Durante a Guerra Fria. em certo momento parecendo simpático a uma abertura do principal cargo no Banco Mundial a um não americano. não só os Estados Unidos são apenas uma voz. mas são também uma voz enfraquecida que em cada evento será ouvida como a mera visão de menos de 5% da população do planeta. Eles compreendem que um multilateralismo bem-sucedido agora requer não só maior número de países. Índia e outros . Inc. frutos da arrogância. do Iraque e da crise financeira de 2008. me refiro ao lado econômico dessa era como um período de capitalismos concorrentes. irrefletida. se pretendem . como das instituições internacionais. é preciso notar. as potências emergentes. de fato. de uma maneira consideravelmente mais construtiva que a evidenciada por China e Rússia em seu desempenho pusilânime com respeito à Síria no Conselho de Segurança. Power.

jogar papéis maiores. and her immediate predecessor. extremely influential. Admittedly. to many. And Patriota is quietly and. He was in New York last week to advance this effort at the United Nations. not only her mentor but one of a tiny handful of the world's most important leaders of the past decade. Antonio Patriota. despite facing great domestic and international challenges. after over a year in office. Rousseff has already earned a higher popularity rating than did Lula at a similar point in his tenure. She succeeds two presidents who were arguably the most important in her country's modern history. Fernando Henrique Cardoso. other countries are actively working to establish new rules for all nations to follow in the new era. 2012 While America's halting path toward accepting the world's new multipolar reality involves a step backward for every step forward. / TRADUÇÃO DE CELSO PACIORNIK **** South America's emerging superpower is coming into its own. Celso Amorim. os custos resultantes serão largados em suas portas. But with great power comes great responsibility. who is credited with stabilizing the country's economy after years of volatility. in the eyes of . The bar was set high for her entire administration. and a fixture on the Brazilian and international scenes. elas também terão de fazer escolhas duras e não simplesmente desconsiderar as questões complexas como problemas alheios ou fora do alcance do sistema internacional em evolução. But Patriota's predecessor. an exceptionalist violation of sovereignty for every bit of teamwork in places like Libya. The challenge facing Rousseff and Patriota as public servants is a daunting one. Each follows in the footsteps of a formidable predecessor. Elas vão ter de aceitar cada vez mais que se as injustiças não forem contidas. BY DAVID ROTHKOPF | FEBRUARY 28. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Nonetheless. was also formidable. seems almost insurmountable. and we sat down for lunch together. Rousseff's challenge is much greater and indeed. Among those at the forefront of this effort are Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and her highly regarded foreign minister.

by any of the world's traditional major powers." she is doing something that no Latin American leader has done before but that has been a proven formula in Asia. But Rousseff's administration is also breaking with the past. "We have a great advantage. from nonproliferation to development. and Russia -." This is a status enjoyed by none of the other BRICs -. Building upon this. common interests. Rousseff. in areas from climate change to trade. the country is one of the few to effectively stake its future on the wise application of soft power -. has noted. has also turned her attention to creating opportunities and a clear path forward for Brazil's future. and educating more scientists and engineers. It's surely no coincidence that.S. Whereas Cardoso and Lula achieved greatness by addressing and solving some of the most bedeviling problems of Brazil's past. for that matter.close observers. Patriota is also looking ahead. economic leverage. as Tom Shannon. Indeed. while still cognizant of the work that remains to be done. He is moving beyond the era in Brazil's foreign policy when it was groundbreaking to have the country look outside its region and play an active role in global affairs to a period. She is committed to moving Brazil from being a resource-based and thus dependent (which is to say vulnerable) economy to one that counts more for future growth on value-added industries. with great deftness. no battles on our borders. research and development." notes Patriota. Brazil under Lula and Amorim and under Rousseff and Patriota has been gaining strength by translating steady growth at home and active diplomacy abroad into effective international networks. From her focus on education to her commitment to science and technology through innovative programs like "Science Without Borders. no great historical or contemporary rivals among the ranks of the other important powers … and long-standing ties with many of the world's emerging and developed nations. This unusual position is strengthened further by the fact that Brazil is not investing as heavily as other rising powers in military capabilities.diplomacy. from stabilizing the economy to addressing social inequality. building on Amorim's groundbreaking work to establish Brazil as a leader among the world's major powers. the U. India.China. ambassador to Brazil. "We have no real enemies.nor. not too many .

are central to achieving the goals of the international community. And the inconsistency shown by the Obama administration on this front -. once seeming amenable to opening the World Bank top job to a non-American.N. he'd like to see Obama go further. and other established powers have gone a long way toward adapting to this new reality. anticipated the beginning of an era in which regional and emerging powers. Patriota acknowledges that the United States. when Brazil.-sanctioned intervention in Libya. Inevitably. like Turkey with Syria or China with Iran. the Brazilians have been among those emerging powers pressing for real reform in the way international institutions are led. more . It's one reason that the 2010 Brazilian-Turkish initiative to cut a deal to defuse the Iranian nuclear crisis was so galling to Washington. For example.years from now. rest assured. They think that the post-World War II order reflected in the power structure of the U.N. as a world leader in agribusiness and energy. this approach ruffles feathers. under Barack Obama. Security Council and in the automatic awarding of the leadership of the World Bank to an American is outdated and it is time for something that reflects 21st-century realities and is more consistent with the democratic principles on which these institutions were established. the U. is unhesitatingly assumed to deserve its place at the table. That said. He was no fan of Muammar al-Qaddafi.offering to support Indian but not Brazilian permanent membership on the Security Council. however naive many found it. But he does have an unwavering sense that if the international community is to work effectively together it must do so under rules that it not only collectively establishes but that are also collectively honored. went off the tracks when the United Nations' mandate mission of protecting the Libyan people was set aside by the international forces that intervened and became instead a mission of regime change. It's hard to argue with the Brazilians or others on these points. The move. Patriota was in New York because he thought that one of the first experiments of this era. as a country with one of the world's five largest economies and populations. especially among countries like the United States that are used to operating by their own set of rules.

not only is the United States but one voice. That said. in fact. and others -. others must fill the void created by the resizing of U. In my new book. the resulting costs will be laid at their doorstep. in a way that is considerably more constructive than that evidenced by China and Russia in their pusillanimous performance regarding Syria in the Security Council. But then came the hubris-born twin tragedies of Iraq and the 2008 financial crisis. if they are to play bigger roles. 10/6/2012) .. it must be noted. must come to recognize that in this new world. Brazil is attempting to do so and. the debate was binary: Soviets or Americans? In its wake there was the brief delusion that we had entered an end-of-history moment in which a Washington Consensus-led philosophy of markets and democracy had earned a kind of monopoly status in the marketplace of ideas.recently seeming to back away from this idea -.S. I refer to the economic side of this era as a period of competing capitalisms. Brazil included. They understand that successful multilateralism now requires not just large numbers of countries but openness to a multitude of ideas. influence. During the Cold War. every bit as revolutionary as what their predecessors have done. But it is also a period of competing political philosophies.and we have entered a new era. emerging powers. They're increasingly going to have to accept that if wrongs go unchecked. the simultaneous rise of new powers like Brazil. India. but it is a diminished voice and one that should in any event be heard as merely the views of something under 5 percent of the planet's population. about the role of both state and international institutions.has been galling and. China. At the same time. ill-considered. Power. Inc. In that world. What Rousseff and Patriota are trying to do on the international front is. they are also going to have to make hard choices and not simply shrug off the complex issues as someone else's problem or as being beyond the reach of the evolving international system. Brazil: a Bric to build with (The Guardian. I would argue.

feeding it soybeans and iron ore. Brasilia has no wish to start giving them. Brasilia has not only doubled its diplomats in the last decade. education. Though leading the world in inequality. which hosts the Earth summit this month and a World Cup and an Olympics in the next four years. First came Cardoso. but it . an advert for activist government. Long receiving economic lectures of mixed quality. Particularly under Ms Rousseff and her foreign minister. it has redoubled its emphasis on diplomacy as the only way to "benign multipolarity". and now has a larger total GDP than the UK. All this has given Brazil the credibility to assume its long-coveted role as a global power. but there is a possibility of massive investment in infrastructure and. the best reincarnation yet of Franklin Roosevelt. most important. Antonio Patriota. Its justly famous social programmes. but watches with apprehension European attempts to reduce debt in the absence of growth. it has assumed a distinctive mixture of restraint and independence in the exercise of that power. Emerging from his shadow as a pragmatic reformer with edge is the current president.Brazil now has a larger total GDP than the UK and has something other nations look for in vain: sustained leadership Brazil. Ms Rousseff will need to transfer her popularity and managerial skill into a command of congress to set the pace. has been enjoying something for which you would look for in vain across much of the world: sustained leadership. Partly this is the luxury of a peaceful neighbourhood (which it must still persuade of the advantages and magnanimity of its leadership). it will no longer be able to be everyone's friend and will feel the tension between sovereignty and human rights more keenly. As it accrues power and responsibility. But it also reflects long diplomatic tradition and experience of the nature of sovereignty and democratisation. Ms Rousseff's challenge is to unlock productivity and establish a more advanced economy. Lula likened himself to a street peddler. the sociologist-statesman who brought the economy under control. Brazil also leads in effectively addressing it. have helped lift 20 million people out of poverty and create an internal market. Brazil rose with China. hawking commodities everywhere. Next was Lula. it would be hard to approach their growth rates. Dilma Rousseff. Since Brazilians are already much richer than the Chinese or Indians.

aspires to be a bridge between powers and will sometimes be a corrective to western selectivity and hypocrisy. it is the best argument for security council reform and other attempts to make the international system more representative. Declinism has been a cons-tant feature in the American narrative since the 1950s. in 2027. Yet today's gloom is more soundly based than its predecessors. when the Soviet Union launched the Sputnik. West and the rest (The Times of India. India's economy may relegate America to the third spot. Several decades later. and the rest.show more dynamic and constant growth than the Soviet Union was ever capable of. In 16 years from now. This will be the true battleground of the 21st century. The end of American dominance is so certain that we can even predict fairly accurately when it will take place. Yet rather than seeking to overturn the western world order. Not only should Brazil have a permanent seat on the security council. the distinguishing feature of the post-western world will be the rising powers' contestation of the western monopoly on defining modernity. 23/08/2011) Oliver Stuenkel As the United States and Europe struggle to contain their debt crises. the US will pass the baton to China. India and Brazil .principally China. . and today's rising powers . It's time for the west. to embrace Brazil's rise more actively and begin a more profound engagement. the decline of the West and 'the rise of the rest' increasingly shape the international political discourse. and wonder about the nature of that new order. Analysts around the world predict the dawn of a new world order led by mostly non-western giants such as China. which will become the largest economy in the world. India and Brazil. Analogies between the United States and the declining Roman Empire abound.

India's and Brazil's ability to continue their growth story pre-sage a world in which modernity is openly contested between the US. The impatience of emerging powers to end the West's monopoly over modernity explains their eagerness to build the highest building. it also embodied the ultimate modernity and virtually all countries around the world sought to emulate it. if anything. while . make this abundantly clear. in others. the delegitimisation of the US-led financial system and China's. Rather than overturning a system that has helped emerging powers rise in the first place. For most of the 20th century. Emerging powers' critique and call for more responsibility within the existing structures prove. This change of guard is most visible in Africa. In this regard. China. where an increasing number of leaders seek to emulate China rather than trying to copy a western power. Yet the current financial crisis. and its structure too mutually beneficial for rising powers to undermine it. the fastest train. the western world order is likely to persist. non-western powers will focus their energy on redefinition and the symbols of modernity. In the post-western world.Yet western fears of an anti-systemic alliance in the form of the BRICS are misguided. modernity is no longer embodied by western powers. where ideology or nationalist pride made it impossible to admire America. The terms "first world" and "third world". even under non-western leadership. In some countries this happened openly. but will be openly dispu-ted between different actors. the US was not only the most powerful nation on earth. India and Brazil. both western and non-western. coined after World War II. The system's underlying principles of rules and economic openness are too compelling.projects that. and to organise the most sophisticated Olympic Games ever . it took place in a more subtle fashion. their conviction that the fundamentals of the system are sound.

anti-western bloc so feared by the West. Rather than merely military power or per capita GDP. growth and optimism to convince others to emulate it. are of immense symbolic value in the quest to embody modernity.provided that they are willing to contribute to the provision of public goods. extremely self-confident and. Only through the established powers' refusal to grant rising non-western actors more weight would the latter turn into a unified. . Its ability to set global standards and present itself as the ultimate modernity has made western countries. dogmatic and parochial. The West will struggle hardest to come to terms with this new reality. Indian or Chinese peoples who saw themselves forced to let go of a significant part of their cultural DNA and adopt western norms. So resounding was the West's success over the past several centuries that it became difficult to distinguish between modernisation and westernisation. In some instances. Contrary to any other civilisation on earth.one may think of Arabic numbers .questionable from an objective cost-benefit analysis. American-Indian. Arabic. a country must offer a compelling mix of dynamism. they must assure that the demands of emerging non-established actors for more decision-making power within the established structures are satisfied . The inclusion of rising powers will provide existing structures the necessary legitimacy to address the world's most pressing challenges. the West never had to learn to fundamentally adapt to foreign norms. paradoxically. especially the US. What should established western powers do about the looming arrival of the post-western world? Essentially. Today's debates in Europe and the US about immigration and the end of the western-style welfare state portend a long and arduous process of revising loyalties and long-held convictions.but western cultures never experienced the trauma of African. nonwestern concepts have been taken up .

créé par Goldman Sachs en 2001 et. une démographie et une économie très florissantes. Née en 2009 à l'initiative de la Russie. Inde et Chine). En dépit de résultats économiques moins bons que ceux des pays susmentionnés.3 % pour l'Inde et 7. IBAS. Brazil. BRICS / L’intégration des pays émergents par les clubs? (Le Monde. l'idée première de ce nouveau club est de tenter d'institutionnaliser et de politiser l'acronyme "BRIC". le Brésil et l'Afrique du Sud se réunit depuis 2003.The writer is a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo. l'Afrique du Sud.3 % de croissance pour la Chine. au cours de ce troisième sommet. la santé. Comparée à ses concurrentes qui affichent une taille. Le forum de dialogue IBSA qui regroupe l'Inde. Russie. rattachée au CERI-Sciences Po/CNRS Le troisième sommet des BRIC (Brésil. a été l'occasion d'accueillir l'Afrique du Sud dans ce club regroupant des puissances émergentes. Ce sont autant de clubs sélectifs fonctionnant comme des . comme principale puissance émergente africaine. d'officialiser l'adhésion de ce nouveau membre par l'ajout à l'acronyme du "S" de South Africa. Brésil en 2010) qui fonctionnent comme des plateformes de consultation et de coordination et visent à approfondir la coopération entre États membres. 8. Il organise une série de sommets annuels de haut niveau entre présidents et chefs de gouvernement et anime des groupes de travail ministériels qui portent sur des thèmes tels que l'agriculture. Ce troisième sommet s'inscrit également dans le cadre d'une série de réunions (Russie en 2009. a donc réussi à se faire reconnaître. qui a eu lieu le 14 avril 2011 en Chine. 24/5/2011)) Folashadé Soulé-Kohndou. spécialité relations internationales à Sciences Po. l'Afrique du Sud fait cependant figure de benjamine : 10. doctorante en science politique. au niveau international. la science ou les technologies. avec "seulement" 3 % de croissance en 2010.5% pour le Brésil.

Le contexte et la naissance de ce forum résultent principalement d'une frustration.communautés d'intérêts. Bien que le G20 demeure un forum important pour les pays émergents qui en ont revendiqué. ces groupements entre puissances émergentes jouent le rôle de plateformes d'expression d'une insatisfaction vis-à-vis du système multilatéral tel qu'il est organisé actuellement. ont été. viennent compléter ceux qui existent déjà. ou de leur intégration. en particulier celle de son Conseil de sécurité. mais aussi de différences linguistiques et culturelles. Cette planification de l'agenda laisse donc peu de marge de manoeuvre aux puissances émergentes pour influer sur les thèmes de discussion. une forme d'assimilation. la création. en effet. Les premières motivations pour lancer cette forme de discussion semi-formelle. eux aussi. à partir de 2005. Elles y perçoivent plutôt une cooptation par les grandes puissances. à partir de 2008. Afin de comprendre l'intérêt de ces clubs au niveau international. Malgré l'invitation. Ces forums ad hoc. Dans le cas de l'IBSA. du Brésil. d'économies qui ne sont pas toutes aussi développées et dynamiques les unes que les autres. de l'Inde. l'agenda du G20 résulte. ces puissances émergentes ne voient pas. le rapprochement des nations émergentes lors de ces sommets répond à une volonté d'intégration accélérée dans les processus décisionnels internationaux. l'initiative est surtout politique. dans le G20. . Symboliquement. créés en complément du G20. il est utile d'adopter une approche de type fonctionnaliste et de s'interroger sur les usages qu'en font ces puissances émergentes. mais ont également pour effet de fragmenter davantage le système de gouvernance globale. Pour les pays de l'IBSA. des groupements comme l'IBSA et le BRICS constituent des moyens de développer leur agenda propre et de peser ensuite davantage sur la gouvernance globale. les négociations à l'issue incertaine du cycle de Doha à l'OMC et la difficile réforme des Nations unies. des réunions du G8 dont les sommets ont généralement lieu avant ceux du G20. de l'Afrique du Sud et de la Chine2 aux réunions du G8 (afin d'associer les pays émergents en transformant de fait le G8 en réunions du G8+5). En dépit de régimes politiques différents. dans cette association. pour l'essentiel.

entre autres. Comme l'affirme l'ancien ministre des Affaires étrangères du Brésil. à la propriété intellectuelle et à la problématique du développement . notamment le système des quotes-parts au FMI et la mise en concurrence du dollar comme unique monnaie de réserve et d'échange. (Now that I am no longer foreign minister. There would never have been change in the quota system if pressure had come only from within the IMF. la mise en place du IBSA Trust Fund for the Alleviation of Poverty and Hunger reflète. les forums IBSA et BRICS contribuent à la consolidation de leur profil international et soutiennent leur volonté de se projeter en tant que puissances émergentes. it was really the G 20's pushing that provoked the change. dont les réunions sont très confidentielles. sont l’occasion de se consulter et d’opérer une pré-coordination sur bon nombre de thèmes : pendant ceux de l'IBSA. Celso Amorim : "Our strate was twofold: to try to work within the United Nations. Pour l'Inde. pendant ceux des BRICS. we can begin some kinds of reforms from the outside. symboliquement. le Brésil et l'Afrique du Sud. Pour autant." La première fonction collective de ces rencontres est donc davantage de servir de forum de consultation ou encore de groupe de pression informelle. la réforme de la gouvernance économique. Dans le cadre du forum IBSA. au-delà de leurs statuts respectifs de puissances régionales. la réforme de l'ONU. le besoin de ces puissances de ne pas être perçues uniquement comme des États destinataires de . Building these informal groups will help push along change to formal institutions within the United Nations. but at the same time to push for reform from the outside. Likewise with the United Nations. afin d'agir plus efficacement dans le cadre des institutions multilatérales formelles.CONSULTATIONS PRIVÉES ET PRÉ-COORDINATION Les sommets de l’IBSA et des BRICS. les questions liées. il ne s'agit pas de substituer ou d'opposer ces forums aux organisations plus formelles et inclusives que constituent les Nations unies. for example by also holding G 20 meetings for foreign rather than just finance ministers. I can say this because I am not pleading on own behalf!). We drew lessons from another big example of recent change to the multilateral system: IMF reform.

sans pour autant hypothéquer les partenariats stratégiques préalablement établis avec ces dernières. notamment. Pour ces pays émergents. L'objectif est donc de contribuer à un rééquilibrage de la gouvernance mondiale. consiste. le fonds IBSA a reçu le prix des Nations unies pour le partenariat Sud-Sud en 2006 et celui des Objectifs du millénaire pour le développement (OMD) en 2010. tout en cherchant à préserver une voix indépendante et une certaine capacité à déterminer les actions à mettre en oeuvre de manière autonome. à revendiquer un droit d'association et d'inclusion au sein d'un système dont le processus décisionnel les intègrerait davantage. DES COMMUNAUTÉS D'INTÉRÊTS FRAGILES . elle consiste à exprimer leur volonté de préserver. pour les pays de l'IBSA. des Nations unies. Quant à l'autonomisation. LÉGITIMATION ET AUTONOMISATION Au sein des institutions internationales et. Ce fonds coordonné par le PNUD (Programme des Nations unies pour le développement) finance des projets de développement de petite et moyenne taille et participe également du projet de renforcement de la coopération et des partenariats Sud-Sud entre ces pays et les autres pays en développement.l'aide internationale mais comme des nations ayant la possibilité d'accorder une aide aux pays en développement et aux pays les moins avancés. le système actuel reflète les réalités telles qu'elles existaient à la sortie de la seconde guerre mondiale. À ce jour. particulièrement le Conseil de sécurité. leur indépendance et leur autonomie d'action vis-à-vis des grandes puissances. Le statut d'émergent et de puissance régionale confère à ces États une position semi-périphérique sur la scène internationale. à la fois collective et individuelle. La légitimation. dans la mesure du possible. dont ils sont conscients et qu'ils entendent utiliser pour se faire reconnaître comme acteurs majeurs dans les affaires internationales. la coopération IBSA poursuit un double objectif de légitimation et d'autonomisation.

notamment entre la Chine et l'Inde. For example. sans l'avouer ouvertement. proposition dans laquelle elle voyait une tentative de surveiller les consultations et les activités d'un club (l'IBSA) qui l'excluait. l'ancien secrétaire aux Affaires étrangères indien. en marge des réunions du G20. The opportunity for common action is. L'Inde a également fait la sourde oreille à la proposition chinoise d'organiser un sommet IBSA-BRICS en avril 2011. la Chine ne voit pas d'un très bon oeil l'éventualité pour l'Inde d'obtenir un siège permanent dans un Conseil de sécurité réformé. China. (…) In climate change negotiations. India and South Africa. Russia is the odd man out. Officieusement. but Russia is not yet a member of WTO. while BASIC is adamant that the Kyoto Protocol must be complied with. en raison des effets indésirables de la sous-évaluation de la monnaie chinoise sur leurs économies. Il est donc plus juste de définir les relations entre les membres des BRICS et de l'IBSA comme des relations à la fois de coopération et de compétition. the so-called BASIC countries.Bien que ces communautés d'intérêt prolifèrent. En janvier 2011. Russia has announced that it does not consider itself bound by its provisions. L'issue du sommet BRICS d'avril 2011 a également fait l'objet de critiques de la part de certains analystes comme. la demande chinoise d'adhésion a été rejetée au motif que "l'IBSA ne regroupait que des démocraties". Shyam Saran : "The BRICS have spelt out common concerns rather than an agenda of common action. limited. mais ce refus était avant tout le résultat d'un veto indien. (…) On trade BRICS do have a common concern over growing protectionism in Western economies. therefore. qui redoutent chacune. Its interests are not aligned with Brazil. This is not surprising given the diversity of the group. " . le renforcement de l'influence de l'autre en Asie. Cette rivalité se reflète également dans l'adhésion à ces clubs et dans l'organisation de leur fonctionnement : lorsque le forum IBSA a été mis en place en 2003. les puissances émergentes sont fragiles et il subsiste entre elles des rivalités. les présidents des banques centrales brésilienne et indienne se sont également joints à la demande américaine de renforcer la flexibilité du taux de change du yuan.

ce qui a pour effet d'accroître les disparités entre les pays qui le composent. this kind of criticism overlooks her crafty and tenacious work behind the scenes when Lula's administration was battered by scandal and she played such a central role in holding it together and getting it back on track that from then on many in the government considered her "Lula's prime minister. my friend was not writing about Dilma or anyone else in Brazil. Dilma Rousseff. "Brazil is not for beginners. He was writing about the policy community outside the country that is now going to face the challenge of shaping a relationship with the new administration. His point was that as ." No. Elles participent également à une fragmentation croissante de l'ensemble déjà très hétérogène qu'est le Sud. to getting her degree in economics to a path of local government leading to Lula's cabinet to his invaluable chief of staff. Furthermore. sont affectés par la crise financière. notamment les États-Unis et l'Union européenne. La mise en place de coopérations qui ne concernent que des puissances émergentes est aussi le reflet d'une distinction croissante entre des relations Sud-Sud horizontales (entre puissances émergentes) et des relations verticales (entre les puissances émergentes et les autres pays en développement). la prolifération de ces groupements (notamment l'IBSA) s'inscrit dans le cadre d'une dynamisation de la coopération politique et économique SudSud et d'une diversification des partenaires économiques dans un contexte où les marchés traditionnels de ces émergents. Those critics and some of her soundly defeated opponents are fond of saying that because she had never run before for elected office she might not have the political skills to manage Brazil's fractious Congress or even her ten party coalitions. Despite the assertions of her critics. the woman already known to Brazilians simply as Dilma is no beginner. the songwriter who wrote "The Girl from Ipanema. He was not writing about the woman who decisively won Brazil's presidential election on Sunday. Tom Jobim." It is an insight that was shared with me this weekend by a wise friend in Brasilia." once observed. But this overlooks the long and remarkable road that brought her from being a guerilla combating Brazil's military regimes of the 1960s to jail and torture.Enfin.

a major. It is the United States. some of the younger analysts view Brazil as part of a kind of mystical BRICtopia where economies grow to the sky and upheaval and economic shocks are permanently things of the past. and Russia.delivered to the brain via the "porches of the ears"). (Things are so fizzy there right now that this is as dangerous as underestimating Brazil's growing geopolitical clout.) And among all these analysts who I heard nattering on and on (policy palaver is a poison that destroys the brain just like that which killed Hamlet's father -. rapidly changing power. Germany. he was suggesting. demographic. The countries whose combined economic. The other members of the G20 are only invited to show up at the meetings because the world is too embarrassed to ask them to . Japan. The EU doesn't belong because it doesn't really have a coherent foreign policy. Brazil has transcended and made obsolete old formulations about its nature and role. China. almost none had a well-rounded view of what it meant to have Brazil join the group of nine or so important powers that will play a central role in shaping global relations during the years ahead.K. France. the U. as former traditional leftists turned stewards of economic orthodoxies like Lula and Dilma illustrate. regional and global strengths set them apart from all others. These veterans of America's often rather ghastly Latin American policies are fighting Fidel and the contras in the steamy jungles of their minds. (This new G9 is the core of the too big and unwieldy G20. particularly the United States. the level of discussion was frequently frustrating. His comments particularly resonated with me after a series of meetings and events in which I have participated during the past few weeks all of which focused on Brazil and Latin America. Brazil. requires new thinking which in turn requires a kind of sophistication -. complex.a more nuanced understanding and creativity that was often lacking in policymakers from traditional powers.. During several such gatherings in Washington. political. Many of the views heard were those of superannuated relics of what is certainly the weakest regional policy community in America. India. On the other hand. Most still see everything in the Americas in terms of left vs. Brazil. in surroundings where you would expect to see the crème de la crème of Western Hemisphere specialists. military. right distinctions which are pretty much meaningless today.

Amorim has been a center of controversy often during his tenure as foreign minister -... BNDES. It will lend over . BNDES. These awards. (If he does not continue. Luciano Coutinho. especially impressive as theirs was a triumph of soft power. She could hardly do better than with this Cornell-trained economist who was once her professor.with countries like Iran and Honduras -made the United States. Lula sought to engage with the world's poor much as he did with the poor in Brazil (20 million of whom were lifted out of poverty during his tenure in office) and so much of the relationship building was among the countries once known as the non-aligned. His development bank. help create new institutional frameworks from the BRIC collaborations to BASIC to sectoral groups in areas like biofuels to informal alliances of emerging powers that tipped the balance on occasions such as global trade and climate talks. that came despite Brazil lagging all the others among the new Big 9 of international affairs in terms of military muscle.) This past weekend I had the opportunity to spend some time with two of the most important leaders of the new Brazil when I attended the Latin Trade's Bravo Business Awards in Miami. laying the groundwork for this inchoate era of new powers.stay home. among others. there is no denying that the country's international stature rose hugely during their tenure. They added 37 embassies. has played a vital role in Brazil's growth. Some of it -. perhaps his deputy Antonio Patriota. scores of consulates. But all of it was a breakthrough for Brazil and. very uncomfortable. These are the reasons Amorim richly deserved his Bravo Award as the region's Innovative Leader of the Year.one which some speculate he may continue in a transitional role with the new Rousseff administration. for the world itself. featured prizes for both Brazil's Foreign Minister Celso Amorim and the head of its development bank. Coutinho's record has been equally striking and as a result he is considered the top contender to be Dilma's finance minister or central bank governor. emerging as perhaps the leading forum for honoring Latin America's top achievers from business and government. his successor is highly likely to be someone closely associated with him. of political skill and economic growth.) But despite the unease that some had with Brazil's boldness during the Lula-Amorim era.

it suggests yet another way Brazil's current soft-power might be amplified.'s first ambassador to Brazil for a new era -. as he did in passing this weekend. policies.combined with the United States' limited bandwidth due to domestic and other foreign concerns -. one in which the U. such as that between Brazil and China. that America consider following Brazil's example (and South Korea's and China's) and establish a major development bank to help restore our infrastructure and growth.S.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's views regarding next generation U.2 percent. its number one trade and investment partner. influence on the other big player in the Americas.S. Shannon recognizes that he is the U. So when Coutinho suggests. Work on a big Brazil-EU trade deal might -. may become even more important.have a similar effect of reducing U. It is also clear that his ideas dovetail with his boss. their views are currently ahead of many of the .S. especially the elements that will inevitably run contrary to U. has produced in the past couple decades. When he imagines a future for a Brazil that might capture some of the wealth from its pre-Salt oil deposits and employ it in a major sovereign wealth fund to preserve the national patrimony.S. one 20th the average of major international lending organizations. more than the World Bank or any regional development bank. it has operated so efficiently and prudently that it has a loan default rate of . Perhaps President Obama's infrastructure bank idea could be the core of such an undertaking. the United States' ambassador to Brazil and almost certainly the foremost hemispheric diplomat the U. the idea sounds very compelling. an era of new partnerships such as that with Brazil. Shannon is the exception that proves the rule in this policy area.$70 billion this year. diplomacy. It was clear from his remarks to the Latin Trade event that Shannon envisions ways of countering such trends and of learning to understand how to deal more constructively with Brazil's very independent foreign policies. Interestingly however.S. one of the few leading practitioners (recent State Department departee Craig Kelly was another) who have really grappled with the new reality. What's more.one in which Brazil is no longer principally seen by the United States as a regional power but is instead acknowledged as a major global actor. Joining Coutinho and Amorim at the event was Thomas Shannon.'s relationship with Brazil is no longer the natural axis around which the hemisphere turns and that new axes.

government refusing to take Brazilian calls in the weeks afterward. flawed. old patterns. A place to start was suggested to me by a smart observer during the Latin Trade event. policy community (including many of their colleagues in the government) who continue to see Brazil in the context of old roles. Slamming the brakes on the Brazil relationship as we did after the Iran deal is unconstructive and that's just what happened. some major. As illustrated by the response to Brazil's effort -. so too should be our policies. In short... just as the United States has a China policy or Russia policy or India policy.S. just as Brazil is at a transitional moment. globally oriented. say. sufficiently complex and flexible. another important rising power. India or France. not-for-or-by-beginners Brazil policy. and to nonetheless continuing to work on progress where we can find it. . with some senior officials in the U.to broker a nuclear deal with Iran (in collaboration with Turkey.S.. among the most important of the next tier of significant powers). he suggested. Brazil had been encouraged to seek out the deal by the White House itself. that Brazil deserves to be broken out of the Latin policy ghetto and. countries like China. where we expect to have differences. as secondary. even though. and almost immediately undercut by the United States -.unsuccessful. forward-looking.. perhaps it is time we really developed an independent. as it turns out. many in the United States have yet to come to view Brazil as we do.usual suspects in the U. Perhaps it is time.