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2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report

Table of Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................. 3 Screen Ubiquity and Diversity ...................................................................... 5 Video Viewing Continues to Evolve Rapidly................................................ 9 The Smartphone as Your Personal Control Center .................................... 13 Digital Health Comes On Strong ............................................................... 15 Connected and Smart Homes Get Closer to a Tipping Point .................... 16 Cars Get Smarter ........................................................................................ 18 Trending Tech You Should Watch ............................................................ 20 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 22

BY: SHELLY PALMER, JIM TURNER & JARED PALMER COPYRIGHT © 2013 ADVANCED MEDIA VENTURES GROUP LLC ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

SHELLYPALMER.COM © 2013

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According to research by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA). The math here is debatable too. Thinner.2 This isn’t accurate. resulting in $35.COM © 2013 PAGE 3 OF 23 . Digital Wisdom: Thought Leadership for a Connected World.6 billion in shipment revenue. I examine how three interesting observed laws converge to offer meaning to statistics like these: 1) Moore’s Law proposes that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. More Powerful & Higher Res For everything with a screen. and the rate of change is accelerating. This is the least obvious of the 2 1 CEA Press Release. But that doesn’t mean that it’s business as usual. 2) Metcalfe’s Law posits that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). up 22 percent year-over-year. the organization that stages the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) smartphones sales will see continued growth in 2013 and will remain the primary revenue driver for the industry. In 2013. unit sales of tablets are projected to surpass 105 million (up 54 percent).pdf. more powerful and higher resolution. Moore. the trend will continue to be be thinner. "Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits. Tablet computers also are expected to see phenomenal growth. Shipment revenues for smartphones are expected to reach $37 billion in 2013.intel. SHELLYPALMER. 1965: 11417 ftp://download.8 million units shipping to dealers. but it is very obvious that the value of a network increases with the addition of each additional user." Electronics 38. In the next few pages we offer a brief overview of the consumer electronics trends that will have the biggest near-term impact on consumer behavior.com/research/silicon/moorespaper. the only question is.1 These are big numbers and they are only going to get bigger — but what do they mean? In my new book.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Introduction Welcome to the Shelly Palmer 2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report. by how much? 3) Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns is the thesis of his book The Singularity is Near and he observes that the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems tends to increase exponentially. Gordon E.8 (April 19. up 16 percent from 2012. But it does speak to the idea of exponential growth. it’s more like one year. with more than 125.

The speed will continue to accelerate. When taken together.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report three laws. but rather ideas — help add context to the CEA’s research.” (Metcalfe’s Law) will empower consumers in ways that will stretch the limits of our imaginations. try to keep these three conceptual laws in mind and think about how. but understanding the exponential rate of technological progress is critical to understanding how consumer behavior will evolve. which are not really laws. While reading this report. You can intuit that rapid and remarkable socioeconomic change will start happening faster than we can plan for it. when taken in context. technologically empowered consumers will impact your business.COM © 2013 PAGE 4 OF 23 . these three laws. SHELLYPALMER. and the “network effect.

Cognizant of this shift. Screen size gives context to the user experience allowing users to choose how. SHELLYPALMER. the new competitive landscape. Tablets and smartphones together now out-ship computers. when and where they want to watch. Shipments were down 7% in Q3 2012 and the trend continues. conventional wisdom held that people preferred to watch long content on big screens and short content on small screens.k. and tablets and smartphones are becoming more like televisions. 4K). using a secondary connected device while using another) are redefining content consumption and interaction. of course. Organic LED (OLED) TVs have been the "next big thing" for over two years. Organic LED (OLED) With respect to resolution. Television devices will continue to see significant increases in size and resolution along with subsequent technologically-driven price deflation. Second screen experiences (i. and content and applications are getting delivered on a dramatic range of screen sizes and device feature sets. NPD DisplaySearch Advanced Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report. flat screens are getting smarter. However. Smart TVs and. Today.e. very 3 4 CEA Survey. To understand the clarity and contrast ratio of an OLED screen. "just right" for targeted user cohorts. Television The business is in transition. Average screen size increased 5% to 35” with larger screens steadily increasing in market share.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Screen Ubiquity and Diversity Only a few short years ago. over two thirds of Americans plan to buy a tablet. slimmer.a. viewer data confirms that people will watch content of any length on the best available screen. Major topics of discussion for 2013 include: OLED. bendable. Manufacturers are now using a "Goldilocks Strategy" searching for screen sizes that are. imagine an extremely thin. but the technology is still on the distant horizon.3 We will look at the devices and explore the implications of this ubiquity and diversity. flexible. We are beginning to see device convergence—smart TVs are becoming more and more like tablets and smartphones.4 This reflects just how fast manufacturing technology is developing and how quickly prices are deflating—bigger. Ultra HD (a. this doesn’t tell the whole story.COM © 2013 PAGE 5 OF 23 . most of them in the next two years. play and interact in a connected world. cheaper is what you need to remember. thanks to TV Everywhere.

Right now. 2K). Why spend $9.k. OLED might launch in a meaningful way in 2013 (Samsung is rumored to have a 55” model in the works). Analysts believe that content delivery will be via blu-ray-like discs or over the Internet. Unfortunately. Prices will drop dramatically and more 4K content will surely be created in the future.6 OLED is even better! OLED smartphone displays are already on the market on many Android and Windows phones. you’ll see flexible OLED screens wrapped around products everywhere— Times Square meets your local grocery store! UltraHD (4K) TVs may finally be catching up to video camera technology with the advent of Ultra HD (a.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report low power LED screen with the absolute best display quality available today— that’s OLED.k. When manufacturers eventually get this right. This is approximately four times the number of pixels and therefore twice the resolution of currently deployed HD sets.000 and $25. Massive 4K sets will make for an incredible home theatre experience for those trying to keep up with the Jones’. Size Matters With respect to resolution and screen size. SHELLYPALMER.” but this is just Samsung’s proprietary name for its OLED displays. there is almost no native 4K content.COM © 2013 PAGE 6 OF 23 .a.3 megapixels). 55” and 60” models. 50” for HD and now 84”. industry logic suggests 25” is appropriate for standard definition.000 USD.a. Westinghouse is touting a 110” 4K set for Q1 2013 as well as 50”. 4K is shorthand for 4000. so practically everything you watch on a 4K set will be upconverted from HDTV (a.000 USD on an 80" 2K set when an 84" 4K set is only a few thousand more? It's a 5 You may hear the technology referred to as “Super AMOLED. just imagine a really big Apple Retina Display. It is IPS. 6 The “Retina Display” found in many Apple products is not OLED. Sony. Sharpe and Samsung are all offering UHD sets ranging 60-85” costing between $15. right now. which represents the order of magnitude of the resolution 3840 x 2160 pixels (8. 4K or UHD). 5 Although a technologically imperfect example."and is actually a premium LCD technology that’s known for having a wide viewing angle and clear picture. but sizing up the technology to create OLED TVs has proved difficult because pixel defects are common and current yield rates are still below 10%. LG. 4K is just a very cool technology that offers a glimpse into the future. or larger for UHD. But what does one do with a 4K set? Not a whole lot as of now. however. 4K May Be Bad For 2K One immediate impact of Ultra HD may be to scare high-end buyers away from purchasing very large (70" – 90") 2K HDTV sets. which stands for “In Plane Switching.

10 Dec. 7 fewer still are regularly used for OTT viewing. the trio collectively lost $15 billion in market capitalization and will be eliminating 29. With limited 3D content available.FT. 29 Nov. and while only half are actually connected to the Internet. Ben. http://www.com/intl/cms/s/0/dd3dd156-4278-11e2979e-00144feabdc0.jsp?id=2227215.com/it/page. 3D TV For all the hype. "Gartner Says 821 Million Smart Devices Will Be Purchased Worldwide in 2012.html>. this is going to be a great year for consumers.8. 20 Dec. The Financial Times. Because of global geo-political headwinds and Japan’s stagnating economy. the real problem is content acquisition and audience measurement. 2013. 2013." Gartner Technology Research. 2012. Bloomberg LP. <http://www. 25 million have Smart TVs.   Japan has had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. McLannahan. "James Bond Can’t Fix Sony as Japan Electronics Scrape Lows. Remarkable Competition The competitive landscape is in transition.bloomberg..COM © 2013 PAGE 7 OF 23 . Out of 114 million homes. Web.11 Where’s all the growth coming from? Not the just the US and China. 3 Jan.d. <http://www. announced that with an estimated 450 million smartphone users in 2012 that Africa is now the second largest and fastest mobile phone market in enters recession before election . Sharp and Sony are in financial trouble. 2012 KPCB Internet Trend Report. Web.p.com/news/2012-12-19/james-bondcan-t-fix-sony-as-japan-electronics-scrape-lows-tech. consumers have spoken with their wallets about the technology and sales are fading. Smart TV (Connected TV) In contrast to 3D.don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Vice George Ferreira. 9 Yasu. the major Japanese manufacturers Panasonic. N." Bloomberg Technology.com.9 7 8 This past year." FT. 11 Mary Meeker. Sales to Rise to 1. expensive glasses needed and oh yeah.000 jobs. 2012. Tablets and Smartphones All the hype about the mobile revolution is probably warranted. 821 million smartphones and tablets were sold globally in 2012 and 1. 2012. 10 Smartphone and tablet shipments also exceeded PC shipments in Q4 and the combined installed base of smartphones and tablets are expected to exceed PCs in mid2013.gartner.2 Billion in 2013. Mariko. an optimal perpendicular viewing set up. Although some headwinds exist because of a lack of industry standardization. With the top five consumer electronics manufacturers viciously competing for every market share point.. "Japan SHELLYPALMER. TVs featuring Internet connectivity (Smart TVs) are growing in popularity. NPD Group.2 billion are expected to be sold in 2013. 6 Jan. President and Chief Operating Officer of Samsung Electronics Africa. Samsung established itself as the new market leader in flat screen TVs with a near-record 26% global market share. 3D is a passing fad -. Web.html#axzz2HA3a9NJ2>.com. n. According to Bloomberg. and Simon Rabinovitch. 3D never happened. 10 Gartner Inc.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report question every high-end flat screen buyer will be asking themselves in 2013.ft.

php/market s/companies-and-market/48068-nigeria-ahead-smartphonespenetration-in-african>. Says Wikipedia’s Jimmy Wales | TechCrunch. Chinese manufacturer Huawei is now offering a $50 Android-powered 3G smartphone. 13 Lomas.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report the world after China. you are still watching it up close (maybe with headphones) and having an intensely personal experience. education. "Nigeria Ahead Smartphone Penetration in Africa. "$50 Android Smartphones Are Disrupting Africa Much Faster Than You Think." Business Day.com/2012/12/10/50-androidsmartphones-are-disrupting-africa-much-faster-than-youthink-says-wikipedias-jimmy-wales/> 14 CEA. "people are taking their TVs with them. 2012.p. with 45% in the next two years.14 Tablets are disrupting common practices in business.. Aol Tech.COM © 2013 PAGE 8 OF 23 . <htttp://www. 31 Dec.   SHELLYPALMER.13 Don’t be surprised if you see a $20 smartphone on the market by 2015. 2012." TechCrunch. Tablets and smartphones are changing the way we create and consume content and our relationship with information. The tablet market is exploding too. 27 Nov. For example." Biodun Coker.com/NG/index. Web. 31 Dec. gaming and media consumption. Even though a video may be seen by millions of people. Tablets and smartphones are also changing the relationship that gamers have with game consoles. Natasha. 2012. twice as many as last year. <http://techcrunch. Web. Two-thirds of online consumers expect to purchase a tablet eventually. This new intimate relationship with content is literally is redefining mass media.12 Price deflation is driving penetration rates. 10 Dec. 31% of Americans own them. One good way to 12 think about this new set of consumer behaviors is simply. N. 2012.businessdayonline.

big shifts are taking place as consumers move more fully into on-demand streaming consumption of video and other content. (See Fig. Video consumption is exploding across all platforms. The Internet is for Porn! VID EO Monthly mobile video consumption in bytes is expected to increase 1000% over the next three years (See Figs. 15 Cisco VNI. Some key questions for 2013: • Will all of this additional video viewing burden infrastructure? What will happen to bandwidth costs? Will limited data plans stunt this growth? How will the "network effect" impact consumer behavior? • • • So what are people doing with all these different screens? Mostly watching video. 2) In other words. 2012. Advertising and marketing opportunities have expanded. new viewing habits make measurement and monetization of content more complex.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Video Viewing Continues to Evolve Rapidly Combined with the explosion of screens. Netflix accounts for about one-third of primetime Internet traffic. Subscription services are growing and also facing new challenges and competition. 2 &3). and by 2016. at best. in about three years there will be more than 1. SHELLYPALMER. it will account for 86% of all global consumer IP traffic. a challenge. especially in the mobile space. 1) On any given night.15 (See Fig. but knowing what messages are effective and understanding the new currency of engagement is.2 million minutes of video content crossing global IP networks each second. Overall video traffic is expected to grow 26% next year.COM © 2013 PAGE 9 OF 23 . Furthermore.

8% 12.0% Growth of Global Consumer Internet Video by Category 50 40 30 20 10 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure 1 Figure 2 Global Consumer Internet Video 2016 by Category (PB per month) 5.3% 60.COM © 2013 PAGE 10 OF 23 . Cisco.8% 17.4% 12. VNI 2012. SHELLYPALMER.4% Figure 3 Figure 4 Rationale for TV Content Streaming Cancelled cable Cut back on cable Catch up on shows discovers after Catch up on missed episodes of TV 0% 25% 5% 6% 40% 73% 50% 75% 100% % of Consumers Weekly Video Consumption by Device 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 41% 12% 10% 92% Figure 5 Figure 6 Source: CEA Research.5% 9.8% 10.5% 10.6% 1.3% 2.3% 3.4% 14% US New Media Set-top Box Distribution 11% Game Consoles DVR 56% 22% 44% Smart TVs & Blu Ray Players Tablets OTT Boxes 40.8% 8.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Global Consumer Internet Video 2012 by Category (PB per month) Exabytes per month 4.

5 & 6). New Measurement Headwinds. continuing a longer trend. Very few companies have the funds to replicate a cable operator or. rentals and video-on-demand Multi-systems Operator (MSO) are down 18% and subscriptions and streaming are up 25%. many variations. Amazon. 16 CEA Research. These services could find themselves as smart TV apps. a typical widowing schema for a major motion picture might be: Theatrical release => DVD (home entertainment) => Hotel => Pay Per View => Premium Cable => Broadcast Television => Online. The cost of creating a virtual MSO is astronomical. to realistically provide the fantasy techpanacea. basis filters become paramount. 17 Managing release windows will continue to be the best way to maximize profitability. 4). the technology exists. Microsoft has the unique opportunity of establishing itself as the central home media platform for the next five years.   SHELLYPALMER.COM © 2013 PAGE 11 OF 23 . settop-boxes. and HuluPlus are reshaping behavior (See Figs. Whereas physical media sales are down 4%. but it is going to take an astonishingly large sum of money to accomplish the task. media centers or most likely. When consumers can access content on a What I want. Advertising and Monetization The rapid growth of second screen and borderless viewing is going to require a complete overhaul of measurement technology and a revision on generally accepted content release windows. When I want (WiwWiwWiw). game consoles. there are many. 17 Windowing is a term-of-art that content publishers use to describe the act of delaying distribution of content on various channels until the previous distribution channel is properly yield managed. the elephant in the room has several file cabinets of existing content deals on its back. With a new Xbox unit likely to ship by YE2013. No.. the deals have not been done. especially when there are mutually exclusive content libraries available. a la carte cable content.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Content Ownership in an OnDemand World The traditional concept of owning content is shifting as we move toward a fully on-demand world. It may happen. Just because something is technologically possible does not mean that it is guaranteed to happen in a reasonable time frame. 40 million have Xbox Live subscriptions.. Out of 70 million Xbox 360 units. Although.16 Consumers are becoming more comfortable with less ownership and more streaming. Subscription services from Netflix. Content Deals As good as this all sounds. Where I want. Yes. OTT & Xbox We will see new services that bundle and filter OTT services and content very soon (See Fig. Content costs are rising and so expanding streaming libraries is proving to be quite expensive.

But remember. "I watch. The Social Media Wildcard Even as Twitter ups its efforts to integrate with live network TV content. There are no generally accepted measurement practices or pricing models for engagement. Without better metrics. advertising and product sales has yet to be determined or fully understood. Borderless Viewing Borderless viewing. People have clearly demonstrated that you can use Twitter to overthrow governments – it is unclear if tweets can help sell toothpaste. we will see more and more legal bouts over content rights.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Second screen viewing has the capability to amplify or dampen viewer engagement. technological and location-tracking capabilities and traditionally different advertising metrics? That is "the" question. engagement is a concept.18 Apps like GetGlue and Viggle attempt to capitalize on this multi-tasking behavior. unlike television ratings and share." August 2012. Ipsos and Sterling suggested that viewers watch TV with another device in hand 77% of the time 34% with a PC/Laptop and 49% with a smartphone or tablet. the ability to watch the same video on multiple devices. Multi-Tasking A recent study by Google. "The New Multi-screen World: Understanding Cross-Platform Consumer Behavior. correlation. therefore I Tweet. 18 Google Research.COM © 2013 PAGE 12 OF 23 . the answer is elusive and the relationship of Twitter mass and velocity on TV ratings. there is still an unanswered question of causation vs. not a metric. but they lag far behind Twitter. Which phrase is true "I Tweet. How should ads be priced when the two viewing devices have different interactive. therefore I watch." So far. SHELLYPALMER." or. is an emerging trend and a disruptive behavior that is complicating pricing models and contextualization.

music. The statistics are not important because the trend is clear – we are heading to a time of ubiquitous network access. Ubiquitous Access to The Network If you watch television. Exo-digitally Enhanced Humans It’s curious and misleading that we still refer to these devices as phones since they have evolved into something so much more powerful. More people will Tweet tomorrow. what was once considered "geeky" becomes mainstream. concerts and wherever practical. coffee shops. TV. commerce. navigation. you are sure to have noticed that both Verizon and AT&T claim 4G network dominance in the United States. health monitoring and gaming. 19 This trend will continue as. Coupled with Near Field Communication (NFC) chips. Geeky Stuff Going Mainstream Use of QR codes has increased 350% since 2011 for “frequent scanners” (those who have scanned at least 20 QR codes). when are we likely to see the smartphone evolve into a true personal digital assistant? When will it become a control surface for our other digital devices? When will privacy laws.) As our central communication and entertainment hub. social networking. It is a joint effort between manufacturers.COM © 2013 PAGE 13 OF 23 . Carriers and cablers alike are offering free Wi-Fi in public spaces. So. they are truly an exodigital extension of us. SHELLYPALMER. than Tweeted today. advertisers and promoters of all kinds are offering free WiFi in retail stores. society and political institutions. video. than ma19 CEA Research. Retailers. our smartphones are very "smart" about us. they are the human body’s first external digital organ. they are personal electronic command centers used for digital communication. GPS and Bluetooth connectivity. security. they live in our pockets and purses. they even come to bed with us.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report The Smartphone as Your Personal Control Center     Smartphones are intensely personal devices. photography. Internet access. Because we are insanely attached to our smartphones. They are always on. More people will manipulate images tomorrow. Access to technology will continue to alter consumer behavior. cybersecurity and business rules allow us to truly enjoy the benefits of connected living? The answer is: now. (See Verizon's advertising campaign for HTC's Droid DNA. Global socioeconomic and cultural adaptation is the major catalyst for the mobile revolution.

outsource your way-finding (to GPS). more and more consumers are demanding hyper-personalized experiences with their devices. Hyper-personal Experiences Although smartphones let us share information. You are guaranteed to be better at the doing of life than someone who is not "exo-digitally enhanced. interests and preferences across the entire scope of our digital (and even analog) activities. Thanks to innovations in big data analytics. virtually unlimited storage and unlimited computational power will significantly change the form and functionality of our devices in the near term. More people will use their connected devices to control their thermostats tomorrow. smartdevices (not necessarily smartphones) are going to create a new class of smarter. The concept of content ownership in 2013 is being rede- fined as "access" to content stored in a remote location. Now.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report nipulate them today. But.COM © 2013 PAGE 14 OF 23 . If you outsource your memory (to Google or Wikipedia). they are adapting to our own unique behaviors. SHELLYPALMER. etc. which is the ability to remotely process information. and on and on. This may be the most important trend of all. and often less discussed. is Cloud computing. The Cloud Changes Everything Cloud storage. outsource your healthcare (to connected monitoring devices). In a very short time." Our tools are evolving exponentially faster than our ability to interpret how the tools will impact our world. the ability to seamlessly and remotely access and share files across platforms and devices. video and data from anywhere in the Cloud. better. Taken together. practically every connected device can access audio. our smartphones are getting smarter every day. it is important to keep in mind that there is a remarkable amount of computational power that is being accessed remotely – this trend will continue. faster. The other half of the equation. connect and collaborate with the rest of the connected world. than do so today – and on. more powerfully competitive humans. is altering the way we think about and do business.

Everything Has A Companion App Once again. which connect you to your doctor without a physical visit. The industry group also certifies services and publishes standards. Microsoft. Sony Ericsson and Trek. primarily for fitness. but the technology promises remarkable outcomes in our connected world. Another awesome use of mobile technology is remote diagnostics. ANT+ is an emerging standard for the interoperability of sensors. diagnostic devices. McCoy's Medical Tricorder is Almost Here 20 CEA Research. Organized by a subsidiary of Garmin. we will see this technology enhance the work of physicians and health professionals on a global basis and. fitness and better disease management is finding its way into consumer electronics. SHELLYPALMER. communicating and managing your digital health. it has more than 300 members including Adidas. smartphones are at the center of it all receiving the information from wearable devices and tracking. it is an example of how industry standardization can benefit consumers. Biometrics and sensors plus a wide range of apps connect your health profile to your smartphone. wellness. With over 320 products. with 70 devices certified so far. Within three to five years. it is a huge success. more importantly.20 Alliances Taking Shape New industry alliances are creating standards that enable biometric sensors. Dr. offer basic health and wellness services to an explosively large patient population. Digital health and wellness is nascent. Continua Health Alliance is an industry organization with more than 220 members that enables end-toend plug-and-play connectivity of devices based on existing communication and data platforms for personal health management and healthcare. This area has grown 25% at CES since last year with over 210 booths dedicated to this market. health data and records and healthcare professionals to all communicate easily. The trend is clear and the progress is obvious.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Digital Health Comes On Strong The recent explosion of interest in healthy living.COM © 2013 PAGE 15 OF 23 .

this makes sense. as well as having it “tell” your home when you arrive and what you want. along with Global Cache hardware. transform your smartphone into a universal remote. smartphones and remotes are converging on the entertainment side of the business. Entertainment Conversely. monitor activities in your home. the biggest manufacturers do not cooperate with each other -. major players are entering the market and costs are falling for systems that provide security for your home.this is a trend that will probably continue. we aren’t quite there yet. these systems are growing in popularity. Third parties are already starting to create universal control apps and unless the manufacturers change their strategic direction. Connected appliances are penetrating the home. In practice. Smart Appliances Remember George Jetson’s apartment in Orbit City? Well. Manufacturer X wants to sell as many Manufacturer X's products as possible. tablet and computer market. Historically. appliance manufacturers are keeping their platforms and ecosystems separate. monitor your energy usage. control your lighting and media consumption. but consumers don't want to download and use a different app for every different device in their home. Also SHELLYPALMER. Apps like Roomie and iRule are IP controllers that. Not Smart Manufacturers Akin to what we are seeing in the smartphone. and with the ability to use your smartphone as the control center. LG’s THiNQ app will work on any smartphone.COM © 2013 PAGE 16 OF 23 . such as Logitech’s new Harmony Touch. remotes are getting smarter. Expect this trend to continue as manufacturers try to build brand loyalty in a highly competitive market. Standards Are Emerging Several interoperability standards are simplifying the systems. On the other hand. Expect a great business for third party developers and a missed opportunity for appliance and CE manufacturers. this trend will continue.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Connected and Smart Homes Get Closer to a Tipping Point   Capabilities are increasing. but it won’t give you updates you on your Samsung washer and dryer. but we are certainly on our way. much like in home monitoring. Many now have touch screens and smartphone-like interfaces. provide remote control of locks and systems and much more.

garden irrigation and locking doors are all on the market now -. Security and Control Hello SkyNet. We're hoping this is not a trend. 62% said it was motivated by security. Of those consumers interested in home automation systems. even monitoring and recording of bowel movements). motion sensors. etc. video surveillance. ZigBee. lighting and energy (by time and activity). Although not at CES. which turns your smartphone (and its keyboard) into an Xbox remote and with some apps. 21 CEA Survey. which is great for homeowners.) emerging that are promoting a lot of co-opitition.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report worth noting is Xbox SmartGlass. flushing.COM © 2013 PAGE 17 OF 23 . baby monitoring. Connected consumer products for home security. temperature control.21 There are a few home automation standards (Z-Wave. SHELLYPALMER. including fire and smoke monitoring. Lixil has a smartphone-controlled toilet (lid up and down. into an interactive second screen too.and not only is there an app for that -.most are controllable across platforms.

intelligence. In addition. and 76% of them drive alone. door locks. contextual locationbased advertising MoSoLo (Mobile/Social/Local) features Personal preferences (memory. Your smartphone and your car are both in the Cloud – the auto industry is committed having the technology work together to enhance your experience. smart and enjoyable way.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Cars Get Smarter New systems to “mirror” your smartphone onto your car’s dashboard along with biometric sensors that monitor your stress. and driving needs are bringing new intelligence to automotive systems. Toyota is testing gesture-based controls and face recognition systems. apps) • • • • • • • SHELLYPALMER. heat. Mercedes Benz already has Attention Assist. 144 million Americans spend approximately fifty-two minutes driving each day. The trend is clear. video) Connected living features (social networks. and others all are adding systems that link to your smartphone to adjust the car’s settings and services to your needs as well as your specific location. cartography and mapping) Vehicle service (needs analysis. Touch screens and voice recognition are helping our car computers feel more like our smartphones. email. drowsiness. locations) Relevant. There are also improvements in safety in the works. txt. The car is quickly becoming a member of our personal digital ecosystem in a safe. trunk) Way-finding (Enhanced GPS. These two along with Audi. mirrors. Ford is rumored to be testing seat-belt respiration sensors and steering wheel heart rate sensors. Mercedes.COM © 2013 PAGE 18 OF 23 . learning) Enhanced entertainment (music. GM is adding “Siri” to its lowest end cars and Ford is expanding its electronic services across its models. Ford will be rolling out phone-disabling systems based on traffic patterns in the near-term. Expect great strides in the following areas over the next few years: • Access and Egress to the vehicle (Seats. which monitors a driver’s drowsiness. games. appointments.

parking space reservations) Interfaces with other modes of transportation (railroads." On this issue. SHELLYPALMER. "Eyes on the road. he is clearly speaking for the entire automotive industry.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report • Driver safety communication) (inter-vehicle • Vehicle movement (traffic Jam avoidance. airline schedules) • And.COM © 2013 PAGE 19 OF 23 . expect the entire industry to work hard to figure out how it can do all of this while complying with new National Highway Traffic Safety Administration guidelines around distracted driving. is our first priority. Chief Technical Officer at The Ford Motor Company says. Paul Mascarenas. hands on the wheel.

14 Sept. Connectivity Expansion: NFC and WiFi 22 23 CEA Survey. Web. the company is processing over $10 billion in transactions annually. Payment Systems The mobile payment system market is booming.COM © 2013 PAGE 20 OF 23 .2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Trending Tech You Should Watch There are several interesting technologies that you should pay attention to this year. "Square Now Processing $10B In Annual Payments. 6 Jan.22 Square Inc. 3D Printing As it becomes more user-friendly and cheaper." TechCrunch. With 3 million users. and almost every field where tracking movement makes sense. This will change research. Spare parts will give way to printed replacement parts. but robotic helpers do not need to be in human form to be useful. Anthropomorphic robots have been popularized by science fiction movies. gesture control and face recognition software is starting to improve. While still more of a parlor trick than a paradigm shift. SHELLYPALMER. <http://techcrunch. 1 in 5 mobile users purchased something on their smartphone in 2012. Aol. as well as gaming. Rao. and piracy will take on a whole new meaning when someone steals your CAD/CAM file and prints the necklace it took you two years to design. Users will be able to create just about anything as long as they have the designs and composite material. Square is currently experimenting with taxis and will be introducing gift cards too. but topics listed here are newly relevant in the context of how they will impact consumer behavior and the doing of business in 2013 and beyond. but it won't be for long. The "maker movement" is just beginning. Robotics Consumer Electronics robotics is still mostly about robopets and automatic vacuum cleaners. 2013. the trend is clear – our tools are going to know how we move and react to our movements. Leena.com/2012/11/14/square-now-seeing-10billion-in-annual-payments/>.23 Gesture and Face Recognition Now that practically every device includes a camera. others are nascent. Added $2B Over Past Month (And That Doesn’t Include Starbucks) | TechCrunch. Some are already very mature.000 merchants using Square Wallet. 3D printing has the potential to upend traditional economic concepts of supply and demand. tripled its user base last year. 7000 new Starbucks locations and 250. 2012.

but so far there are no hardware devices to use it yet. It’s 7 times as fast as wired Gigabit Standard. Remember. WiFi’s growth has been extraordinary with 1. n.p." Research and Mar- kets: Bluetooth 2011: Rapid Growth for Established Interface. The timing will be faster than the demise of the dealer-installed cell phone. However.11ac (a. Bluetooth may seem like old hat.k. but people are actually starting to use it now. 24 Wood. The days of the dedicated point-andshoot camera are numbered. It is just a matter of time before these devices are replaced by the GPS function in your mobile device. WirelessHD (a communications protocol that uses a 7 GHz channel in the 60 GHz Extremely High Frequency radio band) is also trying to become a standard. The Fading Camera and Standalone Navigation Markets Phones are replacing both point and shoot cameras and GPS devices. manufacturers are focusing on mainly the enthusiast and professional market.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report A fascinating use of NFC is Samsung's TecTiles. Apps have replaced cartridges and with better and better screens and graphics cards. the clock is ticking. send a text message. These stickers when tapped by an Android powered Samsung smartphone execute a predetermined task on the device. and even factory installed GPS. Bluetooth-Enabled Device Shipments Expected to Exceed 2 Billion in 2013. make a phone call. Again we are seeing functionality convergence on both sides. the speed of information is directly equated to economic success. "Research and Markets: Bluetooth 2011: Rapid Growth for Established Interface. Laura.. Users can create TecTiles to launch an app. As for stand-alone GPS units. come better and more fun games.d. it is worth keeping an eye on. play a song and a whole lot more. TecTiles are a great example of how our mobile devices are letting us interact with our physical environment in new and unique ways.a.   SHELLYPALMER. N. Web. check in on Foursquare. and it is still getting better. WiGig is on the horizon. Smartphones and tablets have all but turned the stand-alone hand-held game market into a super low budget kids-only business. 802. “5G WiFi”) is now the fastest WiFi ever. which allow users to create their own NFC Tags.COM © 2013 PAGE 21 OF 23 .5 billion devices shipped globally in 2012 (up 5x in just 4 years). Several major manufacturers are promoting the technology so. Android-powered cameras with WiFi are hitting the market and camcorders aren’t dead yet. update a Facebook status.24 UnGaming Handheld games have come along way since the original Nintendo GameBoy.

Networks will be more powerful tomorrow than they are today.com SHELLYPALMER. More people will have access to content and to each other tomorrow than they have today. Every industry expert can tell you "what" is eventually going to happen. The trends outlined here should be viewed through a single filter. please visit shellypalmer. Metcalfe's Law and the Law of Accelerating Returns to what we've covered here.COM © 2013 PAGE 22 OF 23 . In practice: There will be more connected devices tomorrow than there are today. Our mission is to help you succeed in a connected world. Technology is meaningless unless it changes the way be behave. the hard part is telling you "when. you should be able to gain some insight about "when" this technology will truly change the world. then the technology matters. make sure you truly understand how it will be used before you dismiss it. For more information. entertainment and technology companies with a special emphasis on digital media. social media and empowered consumers. we have always described and defined ourselves by our technology. advertising.from the Stone Age to the Bronze Age to the Iron Age to the Industrial Age through the Space Age and into the Information Age. ShellyPalmer is an industry-leading advisory and business development firm that offers deep-knowledge subject matter expertise and strategic counsel to brands." If you apply Moore's Law. If you understand a how a technological trend will change how we do life.2013 Consumer Electronics Trend Report Conclusion   The story of humankind is segmented by our tools -. media. If it doesn't seem life changing to you.

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