SEB Housing Price Indicator edged up in January

RECOVERY IN HOUSING MARKET SENTIMENT. Recent rise in risk appetite is reflected in a slightly more optimistic view on housing prices among Swedish households. The Housing Price indicator recovered to +7 in January from +2, taking back parts of the decline in the previous month. The share of respondents expecting rising prices were marginally higher at 36% (cf. 35%), while the share expecting falling prices decreased to 29% (cf. 33%), with 29% expecting unchanged prices (cf. 26%). STABLE HOUSE PRICES. Swedish housing prices have been moving largely sideways since early 2010 and the Housing Price Indicator is in line with continued small movements in prices in the short-term. We still expect house prices to be in a slight downward trend, but risks for a large correction have been reduced. Rising equity prices and declining mortgage rates on the back of another repo rate cut in February should support the housing market in the short-term. Deteriorating labour market is the main downside risk, while limited supply of new homes works in the other direction. SUPPORTIVE FOR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. The Housing Price Indicator has historically been fairly well correlated with overall trends in consumer sentiment.

MONDAY 14 JAN, 2013

The upturn in the indicator in January suggest that we could see a slight recovery in the CCI ahead from the fast decline during the latter part of 2012.

HOUSEHOLDS SEE UNCHANGED RATES AHEAD. Households’ repo rate expectations in one year’s time are, according to the survey, slightly above the current level at 1.07% (vs 1.31% last month before the Riksbank December rate cut).
Elisabet Kopelman +46 8 506 230 17

Since March 2003 we’ve contracted Demoskop to survey the Swedish housing market every month. This survey was conducted 2 – 10 Jan, 2013.

SEB's Housing Price Indicator
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: SEB, Demoskop

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