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Doctorate in Economics Sciences with High Honours

The Saturday, may 17, 2008, Mr. Kamal EL-OUALY presented and obtained a Doctorate in
Economics Sciences with High Honours from the Faculty of Economics Sciences of Fez under the
title: “The inflation targeting in emerging countries : Its implementation opportunities in
Morocco”.
Chairman : Dr. Esserrhini FARISSI

Abstract:
In a context marked by a recasting of the
monetary theory and the appearance of new
strategies of monetary policy based on the
inflation targeting, this thesis treats that monetary
policy regime implemented in emerging countries.
It’s centred on an analysis as well theoretical as
empirical of the regime of inflation targeting. The
first part consists of a theoretical overflight of the
literature on the inflation targeting which concern
the conceptual aspects and an analysis showing the
supremacy of the inflation targeting rules on any
discretionary policy. The analysis insists on the role
of the transparency and the credibility as a
criterion of performance, which might justify any
country wishing to adopt a regime of inflation
targeting. These two guiding principles to which tends a regime of inflation targeting cannot be
realized without the respect of some prerequisites such as the institutional and technical conditions. The
analysis of mechanisms of implementing inflation targeting regime made possible thereafter to
evaluate and to study the experiments of some emerging countries. This reasoning enabled us to draw
up the first reports concerning the practice of inflation targeting regime by these countries. The lessons
extracted from this part will be used as a basis for the second part treating the case of Morocco. In the
second part, the study was focused on the question of inflation in Morocco in particular about the
concept of calculation and measurement of the cost of living index, about its effects and the choice
made by Bank Al Maghrib to calculate the core inflation. The analysis is then leaning on a diagnosis of
the monetary policy control and exchange policy in Morocco. By basing on an econometric technical in
particular the cointegration test, the Vector Error Correction Model and the Granger causality test, this
study aims at checking the practical scope of the monetary targeting as alternative anchoring of
monetary policy in Morocco. Lastly, this study clarifies if Morocco respects the principal prerequisites for
implementing inflation targeting as monetary policy framework, checking of the rule of Taylor to the
Moroccan case and approaches the principal challenges to take up before to choose adopting such
regime definitively.

Keys words : Monetatry policy ; Target ; Inflation ; Rule ; Cointegration ; Vector Error Correction
Model ; Anchoring ; Causality ;

Kamal.eloualy@yahoo.fr