CBS NEWS POLL For release: Friday, January 18, 2013 6:30 pm ET

Looking Ahead to President Obama’s Second Term January 11-15, 2013 Most Americans are optimistic about the next four years with Barack Obama as president, and want his top priority to be the economy and jobs. 42% expect the nation’s economy to be better at the end of President Obama’s second term, while fewer - 25% - think it will be worse. At the same time, just 22% expect more cooperation between Republicans and Democrats in the next four years. The President heads into his second term with a 51% approval rating, similar to that of President George W. Bush when he began his second term.

The Next Four Years Nearly six in 10 Americans say they are optimistic about the next four years with Barack Obama as president. This sentiment is similar to what it was in January 2005, as George W. Bush was about to start his second term, but not quite as optimistic as when Bill Clinton was entering his second term in office. As might be expected, most Republicans (78%) are pessimistic about the next four years with Mr. Obama as president, while a majority of Democrats (89%) and independents (59%) are optimistic. Feeling About Next Four Years Optimistic Barack Obama (1/2013) 59% George W. Bush (1/2005) 58% Bill Clinton (1/1997) 66% Pessimistic 38 36 28

Optimism was more widespread just before Barack Obama took office four years ago. Then, 79% of Americans (including 56% of Republicans), expressed optimism about his presidency. Optimism About Next Four Years with Obama as President Now 1/2009 Optimistic 59% 79% Pessimistic 38 16

Improving the economy and jobs is the top issue volunteered by Americans when asked what they would like to see President Obama accomplish in his second term. Dealing with the budget deficit comes in second, and other mentions include taxes, health care, ending the war in Afghanistan, and more bipartisanship. Most Important Thing Want Pres. Obama to Accomplish? Improving economy/jobs 35% Budget deficit 13 Taxes 5 Health care 5 Ending war in Afghanistan 4 Bipartisanship 4 Still, as Mr. Obama is about to begin his fifth year in office, more Americans continue to blame former President George W. Bush for the condition of the economy (27%), than blame the current President (13%). Wall Street (19%) and Congress (14%) get some blame too. Looking ahead to some of the issues President Obama will confront over the next four years, most Americans are at least somewhat confident that he will make the right decisions on the economy, Afghanistan, protecting the country from terrorism and illegal immigration. They are more likely to be very confident in his ability to handle Afghanistan and terrorism. Confident Pres. Obama Will Make the Right Decisions on…? Economy Afghanistan Terrorism Illegal Immigration Very 24% 31% 38% 24% Somewhat 34 31 31 31 Not 41 36 30 44 Four years ago, as Barack Obama was about to take office, more Americans were confident that he would make the right decisions on the economy. Confident Pres. Obama Will Make the Right Decisions on Economy? Now 1/2009 Very 24% 36% Somewhat 34 46 Not 41 15 According to the poll, 42% expect the nation’s economy to be better at the end of President Obama’s second term, while just 25% think it will be worse. But expectations for the nation’s health care system are not as positive. More think the health care system will be worse rather than better by the end of Mr. Obama’s second term. Expectations by the End of Pres. Obama’s Second Term Economy Health Care system Better 42% 33% Worse 25 38 Same 31 26

The President’s Job Ratings A 44% plurality of Americans think President Obama accomplished about what they expected during his first term in office, but 36% say he accomplished less than expected, and just 18% say he accomplished more. There are partisan differences: Half of Republicans think he accomplished less, while Democrats are more evenly divided. Obama Accomplish What You Expected in First Term All Reps Dems Inds More 18% 8% 25% 20% Less 36 51 21 38 About what expected 44 38 53 40 As Mr. Obama prepares to be sworn into office for a second time, 51% of Americans now approve of the overall job he is doing as president. This is a slight improvement from this time a year ago, but lower than the approval rating he received just after taking office in 2009. Now 51% 41 President Obama Overall Job Rating 12/2012 1/2012 1/2011 1/2010 57% 47% 49% 46% 37 45 39 41 2/2009 62% 15

Approve Disapprove

President Obama’s overall job approval rating is similar to that of President George W. Bush as he was heading into his second term, but lower than the approval ratings of Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan just before they began their second terms. Presidential Job Approval: Heading Into a 2nd Term Approve Disapprove Obama 51% 41 Now G.W. Bush 49% 46 (1/2005) Clinton 60% 32 (1/1997) Reagan 62% 29 (1/1985) However, fewer than half of Americans approve of how the President is handling some key issues. He does best on foreign policy (49%), and gets his lowest approval rating on handling the deficit (37%). Obama Approval on Handling… Approve Disapprove Foreign policy 49% 36 Economy 46% 49 Taxes 45% 47 Budget deficit 37% 54 The President has recently made some appointments to his cabinet, and more Americans generally approve than disapprove of his selections. However, 28% have no opinion.

Obama Second Term Cabinet Selections All Reps Dems Inds Approve 48% 22% 74% 44% Disapprove 22 45 3 24 Don’t know 28 32 22 30 The President and Congress As debate begins to heat up over issues like the deficit and gun control, Americans think the President will have more influence than the Republicans in Congress over the direction of the country for the next two years. There is agreement on this across party lines. Who Will Have More Influence over the Direction of the Country? All Reps Dems Inds President Obama 59% 53% 64% 58% Republicans in Congress 28 35 27 24 Even though Americans may be generally optimistic about the next four years with Mr. Obama in the White House, they are not especially hopeful that there will be more cooperation between Republicans and Democrats than there has been in the last four years. Cooperation Between Republicans & Democrats All Reps Dems Inds More 22% 6% 31% 24% Less 21 32 16 19 Same 55 60 51 54 The Mood of the Country and the Economy A majority of Americans continue to think the country is off on the wrong track, but 38% now believe it is headed in the right direction. This assessment is an improvement from a year ago, and significantly better than four years ago, as Barack Obama was about to assume the presidency. Now 38% 57 Country is Headed in the… 10/2012 1/2012 1/2011 39% 29% 32% 54 66 64 1/2010 36% 55 1/2009 15% 79

Right direction Wrong track

Views of the economy continue to be negative, but have remained fairly steady over the last few months, and are markedly more positive today than they were four years ago. Now 32% 66 12/2012 29% 69 Condition of the Economy 10/2012 9/2012 32% 31% 67 68 1/2012 19% 80 1/2009 7% 92

Good Bad

About a third of Americans think the economy is getting better.

Better Worse Same

Now 33% 30 36

12/2012 33% 23 43

Direction of the Economy 10/2012 9/2012 36% 32% 28 28 35 39

1/2012 25% 29 45

1/2009 7% 54 37

While a majority of Americans are at least somewhat concerned about a job loss in their household, just 27% are very concerned, the lowest percentage since August 2009. Concerned About Job Loss in Household? Now 12/2012 1/2011 2/2010 8/2009 27% 30% 41% 31% 26% 33 26 25 26 28 40 43 34 41 45 1/2009 30% 32 38

Very Somewhat Not at all

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This poll was conducted by telephone from January 11-15, 2013 among 1,110 adults nationwide. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Looking Ahead to President Obama’s Second Term JANUARY 11-15, 2013 q1 I'd like you to compare the way things are going in the United States to the way they were going five years ago. Generally, would you say things are going better today, worse today, or about the same today as they were going five years ago? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 28 7 43 28 49 73 27 52 21 20 27 17 3 1 3 3

Better Worse Same DK/NA

Jan09a % 5 83 10 2

q2 And what is your best guess about the United States five years from now? Generally, if things go pretty much as you now expect, do you think things will be better, worse, or about the same as they are today? Better Worse Same DK/NA 39 38 19 4 16 65 17 2 60 16 20 4 36 39 20 5 61 19 17 3

q3 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 51 41 7 14 83 4 86 9 6 47 42 11 Dec12a 57 37 6

q4 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track DK/NA 38 57 5 7 91 1 69 26 5 32 61 7 37 57 6

q5 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 49 36 15 19 71 10 76 11 12 46 34 21 51 32 17

q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 46 49 5 12 87 1 77 17 6 43 52 5 47 47 6

q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the federal budget deficit? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 37 54 9 6 91 3 62 24 13 37 54 9 37 51 12

q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling taxes? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 45 13 78 38 47 83 17 50 7 4 5 11

Approve Disapprove DK/NA q9-11 SEPARATE RELEASE

Dec12a % 52 41 7

q12 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA 2 30 43 23 1 2 13 54 31 0 2 47 36 14 2 3 27 42 26 1 1 28 46 23 1

q13 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse Same DK/NA q14 BLANK q15 SEPARATE RELEASE q16-17 BLANK q18 Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion?? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 46 34 16 3 1 10 72 15 3 0 80 5 12 4 0 42 34 20 2 1 49 34 12 4 1 33 30 36 1 14 47 39 0 50 15 33 2 30 31 38 1 33 23 43 1

q19 Is your opinion of Michelle Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Michelle Obama yet to have an opinion?? REG Sep12a 61 19 13 6 1

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused q20-22 SEPARATE RELEASE

51 13 15 19 2

24 30 21 22 3

79 2 6 11 1

45 11 19 23 2

q23 In his first term in office, do you think Barack Obama has accomplished more than you expected, less than you expected, or about what you expected him to accomplish? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 18 8 25 20 36 51 21 38 44 38 53 40 2 3 1 2

More Less About expected DK/NA

q24 Are you generally optimistic or pessimistic about the next four years with Barack Obama as President? Optimistic Pessimistic Don't know/No answer 59 38 4 19 78 4 89 8 2 59 36 5 Jan09a 79 16 5

q25 What is the single most important thing you would like to see Barack Obama accomplish in the next four years as President? Economy / jobs Budget deficit Taxes Health care More bipartisanship Afghanistan/End war Immigration Obama should leave office Cut gov't spending Guns Education Foreign policy Stand up to Republicans Nat'l security Help middle class Make U.S. better Other DK/NA 35 13 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 9 6 35 18 6 4 5 0 1 6 3 4 1 1 0 1 1 1 8 5 37 8 3 7 4 7 2 0 1 5 2 2 3 0 2 1 10 6 35 13 6 4 3 3 4 4 2 2 3 2 0 1 1 1 10 6

q26 Over the next two years, who do you think will have more influence over the direction of the country: Barack Obama, or the Republicans in Congress? Barack Obama Republicans in Congress Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA 59 28 3 4 7 53 35 4 3 6 64 27 2 2 5 58 24 2 5 11

q28 BLANK q29 From what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the Cabinet selections Barack Obama has made so far for his second term? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Approve 48 22 74 44 Disapprove 22 45 3 24 Approve some/not others (vol) 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 28 32 22 30 q30 How confident are you in Barack Obama's ability to make the right decisions about the economy -- very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident Don't know/No answer
*Trend is among registered voters

24 34 20 21 1

3 13 36 47 0

45 48 6 2 0

20 37 21 22 1

Apr12a* 20 31 17 31 1

q31 How confident are you in Barack Obama's ability to make the right decisions about Afghanistan -- very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident Don't know/No answer 31 31 20 16 2 7 25 32 34 2 55 31 11 2 1 27 35 19 17 4

q32 How confident are you in Barack Obama's ability to make the right decisions when it comes to protecting the country from a terrorist attack--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident Don't know/No answer 38 31 15 15 1 6 35 29 29 1 66 25 7 1 1 36 34 12 16 2 Jan09a 35 41 15 6 3

q33 How confident are you in Barack Obama's ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration – very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident Don't know/No answer 24 31 19 25 2 3 19 28 48 2 41 39 10 9 1 23 31 19 24 3

q34 By the end of Barack Obama's second term in office, do you expect the economy to be better than it is today, worse than it is today, or about the same? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 42 14 65 41 25 52 5 25 31 34 28 32 2 1 2 2

Better Worse Same DK/NA

q35 By the end of Barack Obama's second term in office, do you think the health care system in this country will be better than it is today, worse than it is today, or about the same as it is today? Better Worse Same DK/NA 33 38 26 3 4 74 20 2 58 11 26 5 32 38 28 2

q36 During Barack Obama's second term in office, do you think there will be more cooperation between Republicans and Democrats in Washington than there has been during the last four years, less cooperation, or about the same amount of cooperation as there has been during the last four years? More Less Same DK/NA q37-39 SEPARATE RELEASE q40 Who do you think is mostly to blame for the current state of the nation's economy--the Bush administration, the Obama administration, Wall Street and financial institutions, Congress, or someone else? Bush administration 27 Obama administration 13 Wall Street & financial inst. 19 Congress 14 Someone else 6 All of the above (Vol) 9 Combination (Vol.) 9 Don't know/No answer 3 q41-50 SEPARATE RELEASE q51-53 BLANK 7 32 15 14 8 11 10 2 49 2 21 13 2 3 9 1 21 11 21 14 7 12 10 5 Dec11a 22 12 12 16 7 12 12 7 22 21 55 2 6 32 60 2 31 16 51 2 24 19 54 3

q54 What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the health care law? 1. Expand the health care law, OR 2. Keep the entire health care law as it is, OR 3. Repeal the part of the law that requires Americans to obtain health insurance if they don't have it, but keep the rest of the law intact, OR 4. Repeal the entire health care law. ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Expand the law 24 7 42 20 Keep entire law in place 18 13 24 16 Repeal the mandate/keep rest 19 16 16 24 Repeal the entire law 33 62 11 33 DK/NA 6 3 7 7 q55-64 SEPARATE RELEASE q65 BLANK q66 How would you rate the financial situation in your household these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad Don't know/No answer 12 61 18 8 1 11 62 22 5 1 13 64 16 6 1 12 57 17 11 1 Nov11b 8 60 22 9 1

Oct12c % 22 21 19 29 8

q67 How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job—very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not concerned at all? Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not at all concerned DK/NA 27 33 40 1 23 34 42 1 27 33 39 0 28 31 40 1 Dec12a 30 26 43 0

Total Respondents Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents

UNWEIGHTED 1,110 313 363 434

WEIGHTED 288 373 449

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