SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists

Iran Disadvantage

Iran Disadvantage
Iran Disadvantage ............................................................................................................................ 1 1NC Iran Disadvantage 1/3 ...........................................................................................................................................2 2NC Impact Outweighs 1/4 ........................................................................................................................................... 5 ***UNIQUENESS*** .........................................................................................................................9 Uniqueness – No Space Exploration Now ................................................................................................................. 10 Uniqueness – No Iran Space Now .............................................................................................................................. 11 Uniqueness – No Nuclear Missile Capability Now .................................................................................................... 12 A2: Recent Launches Prove Iran Space Capability 1/2 ............................................................................................. 13 ***LINKS AND INTERNALS*** ...................................................................................................... 15 Link – Mars Exploration ............................................................................................................................................. 16 Link – Debris ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 Link – US Modeled 1/2 ............................................................................................................................................... 18 Link – Perceived Military Threats ............................................................................................................................. 20 Link – Space Exploration  Collaboration ............................................................................................................... 21 A2: US Would Exclude Iran ....................................................................................................................................... 22 Link – Espionage ........................................................................................................................................................ 23 Link – Russia (Debris Module) 1/2 ........................................................................................................................... 24 Link – Russia (Mars Module) 1/2 .............................................................................................................................. 26 Internal Link – Duel-Use 1/4 ..................................................................................................................................... 28 ***IMPACTS***............................................................................................................................... 32 Brink – Ballistic Missile Tech Improving ...................................................................................................................33 Iran Proliferation Bad – Global Proliferation ........................................................................................................... 34 Iran Proliferation Bad – Nuclear Terrorism 1/2 ........................................................................................................35 Iran Proliferation Bad – Regional Instability ............................................................................................................ 37 Iran Proliferation Bad – Europe NMD ...................................................................................................................... 38 Iran Proliferation Bad – Turns Case (US Space Supremacy) .................................................................................. 39 A2: Ballistic Missile Capabilities Now ....................................................................................................................... 40 A2: Iran Can‘t Nuclearize ............................................................................................................................................ 41 A2: No Nuclear Material 1/2 ...................................................................................................................................... 42 A2: Iran Proliferation Inevitable ............................................................................................................................... 44 A2: Iran Proliferation Good (Waltz) 1/3 ....................................................................................................................45 A2: No Iran Threat – Conventional Forces Fail ........................................................................................................ 48 Iran Space Expansion Bad – EMP Attack 1/2 ........................................................................................................... 49 Iran Space Expansion Bad – Regime Credibility 1/3 ................................................................................................ 51 Iran Space Expansion Bad – Israel-Iran War ............................................................................................................54 Iran Space Expansion Bad – Turns Case (US Space Supremacy) ............................................................................ 55 A2: Other Measures Prevent Iranian Space Expansion ............................................................................................56 ***AFF*** ....................................................................................................................................... 57 No Internal Link – No Duel-Use Intentions ............................................................................................................. 58 No Impact – No Nuclearization (Technology) 1/3 ....................................................................................................59 No Impact – No Nuclearization (Desire) .................................................................................................................. 62 No Impact – No Space Threat.................................................................................................................................... 63 No Impact – No Timeframe ....................................................................................................................................... 64 Impact Non-unique – Ballistic Missile Capabilities Now .........................................................................................65 Impact Non-unique – Iran Nuclearization Inevitable .............................................................................................. 66

―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖

SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists

Iran Disadvantage

1NC Iran Disadvantage 1/3
The global space age has ended – countries are curtailing their space exploration The Economist, ‟11 (Jun 30th 2011, “The end of the Space Age”,

But the shuttle is now over. The ISS is due to be de-orbited, in the inelegant jargon of the field, in 2020. Once that happens, the game will be up. There is no appetite to return to the moon, let alone push on to Mars, El Dorado of space exploration. The technology could be there, but the passion has gone—at least in the traditional spacefaring powers, America and Russia. The space cadets‘ other hope, China, might pick up the baton. Certainly it claims it wishes, like President John Kennedy 50 years ago, to send people to the surface of the moon and return them safely to Earth. But the date for doing so seems elastic. There is none of Kennedy‘s ―by the end of the decade‖ bravura about the announcements from Beijing. Moreover, even if China succeeds in matching America‘s distant triumph, it still faces the question, ―what next?‖ The chances are that the Chinese government, like Richard Nixon‘s in 1972, will say ―job done‖ and pull the plug on the whole shebang. Iran will model US progress in space exploration – plan causes them to accelerate their space program Cordesman, CSIS, 3/6, (Anthony H., CSIS, “US Strategic Competition With Iran: Energy,
Economics, Sanctions, And The Nuclear Issue”,, DOA: 7/15/11)

Over the past several decades, a pattern has developed in this aspect of US and Iranian competition. As Iran moves forward in areas that could give it nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, the United States reacts with diplomacy, sanctions, and efforts to strengthen US and Southern Gulf forces and deterrent capabilities. Tehran frequently acknowledges Washington‘s diplomatic efforts and

appears to respond to them, but delays ensue and even if promises are made, progress is not. Iran continues to pursue its nuclear program without full compliance with IAEA safeguards, without negotiating tangible agreements with either the US or other members of the P5+1, and with little practical regard to UN sanctions. Moreover, Iran has sought to counter American and UN sanctions by leveraging its international economic position through its energy exports. This, in turn, helps Iran undermine multilateral support for sanctions. Tehran can offer economic opportunities to nations which skirt or weaken sanctions because other countries voluntarily suspend ties with the Islamic Republic. This effort has had an important impact on China, Russia, and other states who support the sanctions process. It has delayed and weakened UN efforts, limited the impact of the P5+1 negotiating process, and had a wider impact on other states, including key players like Turkey.

Iran‘s tactics of delay, denial, and move forward have forced American policymakers to either take a more confrontational approach to nations outside its sanctions regime—sometimes pushing them further towards cooperation with Iran—or to accept a weakening of sanction and pressures on Iran. At the same time, they have led the US to repeatedly make it clear that while it prefers a negotiated solution, it is

keeping military options on the table. They also have led the US to increase pressure on other states, to use the UN sanctions process, and to limit all major arms sales and all nuclear and missile-related technology transfers to Iran. Iran has responded by steadily building up its conventionally armed long-range missile capabilities, its capabilities to conduct asymmetric warfare in the Gulf, and its capabilities to respond to any US (or Israeli) attack on Iran; by expanding its ties with Syria and with hostile states as far away as Venezuela; and by using its ties to non-state actors as a potential threat.

The end result is that there are no clear boundaries to this aspect of US and Iranian competition: they affect a broad range of diplomacy, competition within the UN framework, sanctions and related economic and arms transfer efforts, energy exports and investment opportunities in Iran, and a wide range of competition in military options. The interaction between Iran‘s nuclear programs and US sanctions efforts is the most direct and visible aspect of this competition and as the US continues to employ both carrots and sticks to try to alter Iranian behavior, the pattern continues. Tehran‘s gradual progress, however, calls into
question the efficacy of the American approach. Sanctions and diplomacy have successfully slowed Iran‘s nuclear development. US actions have not changed Tehran‘s strategic calculus or the shape of its nuclear and missile efforts.

―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖

SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists

Iran Disadvantage

1NC Iran Disadvantage 2/3
Expansion of Iranian space capabilities is the missing link for nuclear expansion NYT, „6 (William Broad and David Sanger, April 3, “Iran keeps an eye on outer space”

Iran has publicly rejected the goal of developing unconventional arms. It says its space and rocket efforts are either entirely peaceful, aimed at improving the state's telecommunications and monitoring natural disasters - strong earthquakes shook Iran on Friday - or are military efforts meant to boost its defenses with conventional weapons. But some Western analysts note that such technologies can also have atomic roles and that a crucial element of a credible nuclear arsenal is the ability to launch a missile accurately and guide a warhead to its target. While Iran
now depends on Russia to launch its satellites into orbit, it has vowed to do so itself, and is developing a family of increasingly large rockets. In

the biggest could hurl not only satellites into space but warheads between continents. "The real issue is that they have a very large booster under development," said Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington who wrote a recent report on Iran's nuclear effort. He said Tehran's bid to develop new rocket and space technologies might be nothing more at this point than its exploring of technological options , at times quite modestly, as in its recent effort to loft experimental satellites. "That doesn't mean the potential should be minimized,"
theory, Cordesman said. "We know these states can achieve technical surprise." On Sunday, Iran said it had test-fired a fast underwater missile that could evade sonar, and on Friday announced that it had launched a new rocket that can carry multiple warheads and elude radar. The military actions, accompanied by film clips on state television during a week of naval maneuvers, seemed calculated to defy growing pressure on Tehran. So far, U.S. officials say they have not protested Iran's space program. Intelligence agencies reviewed information about the satellite launching last fall, but concluded that it warranted no action. Nor has the United States urged Russia - a key player in the current negotiations with Iran over its efforts to enrich uranium - to halt the launchings. But a senior American official who spoke anonymously because he was unauthorized to address the topic publicly said the United States was "taking another look" at pressing Moscow to end the space assistance as a

Analysts across the political spectrum seem to agree that the Iranian missile and satellite programs bear watching, even if judged as presenting no current threat to the United States. "It's clearly interesting to see what direction they're going," said David Wright, a space analyst at the
way of pressuring Iran to stop the enrichment of nuclear material.

Union of Concerned Scientists, a policy research group in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The UN Security Council is now debating possible sanctions against Iran because many states worry that Tehran's atomic push conceals a clandestine effort to acquire an atom bomb.

American intelligence agencies estimate that Iran is 5 to 10 years away from having enough material for a nuclear weapon. John Negroponte, director of national intelligence, recently called the danger that Tehran "will acquire a nuclear weapon and the ability to integrate it with ballistic missiles Iran already possesses" a cause "for immediate concern." Iran has missiles that can reach about 1,000 miles, or 1,600 kilometers, which is as far away as Israel and, as Negroponte put it, has "the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East." American intelligence officials estimate that it might field an intercontinental missile by 2015 , but such forecasts are always rough approximations.

―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖

Years of knowingly useless negotiations. That will present the world with two futures. It is not just that Iran might be the source of a great conflagration but that we will have demonstrated to the world that for those similarly inclined there is no serious impediment.html) Depending on your own beliefs. have brought us to only the most tentative of steps--referral to a Security Council that lacks unity and resolve. and yet the world response has been catastrophically slow and reluctant. Not just one but many radical states will get weapons of mass extinction. If we fail to prevent an Iranian regime run by apocalyptic fanatics from going nuclear. he is exceedingly dangerous.time.1176995. and then so will the fanatical and suicidal terrorists who are their brothers and clients. Commonwealth Scholar at Oxford. It is the most dangerous political entity on the planet. Iran knows this and therefore defiantly and openly resumes its headlong march to nuclear status. Ahmadinejad is either mystical or deranged. we will have reached a point of no return . 4 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . With infinitely accelerated exchanges of information helping develop whole new generations of scientists. „6 (Charles. we face not proliferation but hyperproliferation .com/time/magazine/printout/0. Iran is the test case. followed by hesitant international resolutions. The second. The first is Feynman's vision of human destruction on a scale never seen .SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage 1NC Iran Disadvantage 3/3 Iranian proliferation causes global hyper-proliferation – impact is extinction Krauthammer. is a radical abolition of liberal democracy as the species tries to maintain itself by reverting to strict authoritarianism--a self-imposed expulsion from the Eden of post-Enlightenment freedom.00. In either case. March 26. If nothing is done.8816. perhaps after one or two cities are lost with millions killed in a single day . Can there be a third future? That will depend on whether we succeed in holding proliferation at bay. “Today Tehran. extremist countries led by similarly extreme men will be in a position to acquire nuclear weaponry. Tomorrow the World” http://www. And Iran is just the first.

N. enabling it to hold governments around the world hostage simply by threatening to launch its missiles. Its new two-stage solid-propellant missile could soon be capable of reaching Eastern Europe—far beyond Israel. and payload capabilities. many of Iran‘s ballistic missiles ―are inherently capable of carrying a nuclear payload. Its leaders are deeply committed to building nuclear and ballistic missiles in defiance of U.S. in the past four years. including Hezbollah. Likely influenced by Iran. interests. Iran has sought to undermine the coalition in Iraq and U. the United States should be wary of cooperation between anti-American regimes. Finally. the intelligence community estimated in 2010 that Iran could have a nuclear weapon within one or two years . Iran poses a threat to shipping and oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz. including Turkey and the Gulf states. resulting in a nuclear arms race in the Middle The regime in Iran poses the most significant threat to U. and the Taliban. It sponsors terrorism as part of its foreign policy. Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons. it continues to support foreign terrorist elements. “A Strong National Defense: The Armed Forces America Needs and What They Will Cost” http://www. Tehran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. at least 14 countries in the Middle East and North Africa have announced intentions to pursue civilian nuclear programs. 5 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .S. it could provide nuclear weapons to terrorists to carry out its ambitions.000 kilograms of low-enriched uranium—enough to produce at least two nuclear weapons if the uranium is further enriched. In addition.heritage. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that Iran has increased the number of uranium-enriching centrifuges at its Natanz facility from about 3. 4-5-‟11 (Special Report on National Security and Defense. In 2010. Iran unveiled even faster centrifuges to speed up enrichment. nuclear terrorism and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Heritage Foundation.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage 2NC Impact Outweighs 1/4 Warhead capability is likely in 2 years – Iran nuclear capability causes Middle East nuclear arms race.‖ Iran could have a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile by 2015. Hamas. scale.S. and is actively seeking to establish a regional hegemony and undermine U. repeatedly threatens the existence of both Israel and the United States.000. A nuclear Iran will multiply this phenomenon. and it continues to increase their range. relations with longtime U. While estimates vary. If Iran achieves a nuclear capability. which are viewed by many as a hedge against the possibility of a nuclear Iran. and it has stockpiled more than 3.S. Furthermore. influence in the region. According to a recent National Intelligence Estimate. such as Iran‘s cooperation with Venezuela‘s Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. Security Council restrictions . the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.000 in late 2007 to more than 8. allies in the region.

military and strategic industrial sites. in Southeast Asia. For most modern nuclear-war scenarios." said Rutgers University atmospheric scientist Alan Robock. The hundreds of millions who would starve exceeded those who would die in the initial blasts and radiation. young nuclear -armed nations have fewer weapons and might go for maximum effect by using them on cities. They showed the problem was potentially worse than feared: Massive urban fires would flush hundreds of millions of tons of black soot skyward. while the warm soot would spread a pall sufficient to plunge the Earth into freezing year-round. „6 (Ian." Toon said. It's not even nuclear autumn.-Soviet nuclear holocaust would wreak havoc on the planet's climate. but rather an instant nuclear chill over most of the planet. “„Nuclear winter‟ looms” Inside Bay Area. accompanied by massive ozone loss and warming at the poles.heated by sunlight . much more so than global warming. Brian Toon and colleagues found they could generate 100 times the fatalities and 100 times the climate-chilling smoke per kiloton of explosive power as all-out nuclear war between the United States and former Soviet Union. lexis) Researchers at the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting warned Monday that even a small regional nuclear war could burn enough cities to shroud the globe in black smoky shadow and usher in the manmade equivalent of the Little Ice Age.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage 2NC Impact Outweighs 2/4 Even a low level nuclear conflict in the Middle East risks extinction Hoffman. when the United States and Russia mostly targeted each other's nuclear. ―Nuclear weapons represent the greatest single human threat to the planet. researchers imagined a U. the North Korean peninsula or. where -. the most modeled would soar higher into the stratosphere and begin cooking off the protective ozone layer around the Earth. Unlike in the Cold War. By dropping imaginary Hiroshima-sized bombs into some of the world's biggest cities. the global impact isn't nuclear winter. University of Colorado researcher O. Huge losses of ozone would open the planet and its inhabitants to damaging radiation. 6 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . That's what scientists' computer simulations suggest would happen if nuclear war broke out in a hot spot such as the Middle East.S. "We're at a perilous crossroads. the notion of smoke from incinerated cities blotting out the sun for years and starving most of the Earth's people. The spread of nuclear weapons worldwide combined with global migration into dense megacities form what he called "perhaps the greatest danger to the stability of society since the dawn of humanity. now swelled to tens of millions in population." More than 20 years ago. as the United States did in 1945.

the extensive inventory of mines possessed by Iran and its ability to means that it possesses a credible capability to rapidly mine the Strait of Hormuz and enforce a blockade in one of the world‘s most critical maritime traffic passage with relative ease. 7 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Massively critical questions such as whether Iran begins its minelaying operations in preutilize conventional and improvised minelaying platforms emption to a U. Commercial shipment firms would be generally unlikely to take the risk of transiting through hostile spaces: Even if (as some experts suggest) the likelihood of large tankers being sunk by naval mines was low (apparently because of their ability to absorb the energy). In most cases.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage 2NC Impact Outweighs 3/4 Iranian attack on the Strait of Hormuz causes skyrocketing oil prices and collapses the global economy Khan. a total of 546 vessels. Approximately fifteen supertankers transit the Strait on a daily basis. (or Israeli) attack or in retaliation to an attack (when its capability to do so would have been weakened). The economic impact will be felt not just with Arab Gulf states – some ninety percent of their hydrocarbon and other oil-derived products exports cross the Strait – but around the world from Venezuela to Japan. The first three hours of any Iranian mine-laying operations will be the most critical – if it is unable to accomplish key mission objectives within this time-period then it is likely to be intercepted and prevented from achieving strategic objectives beyond this timeframe. Institute of Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. The price of oil will shoot up exponentially simply because of the way in which commodity trade markets today react to impending geopolitical uncertainties and conflict scenarios. how early it is detected. ensues or not. Today. and if an open conflict between Iran and the U. by one estimate. Iranian mines are ten times as powerful as those it deployed during the Tanker War and its anti-ship missiles are much more lethal. The psychological impact of Iranian claims to have mined the Strait will however suffice in disrupting global energy supplies . the potential costs of transiting through the Strait would vastly outweigh the potential benefits.S.S. January. During the Tanker War. Iran will stand at the center of international public attention. “Iranian Mining of the Strait of Hormuz – Plausibility and Key Considerations” INEGMA Special Report No 4) Unless it was militarily prevented from doing so. both Iraqi and Iranian forces targeted merchant vessels and damaged. it is unlikely that many companies in the short-term would be willing to risk potentially millions of dollars in damage to their vessels – which would still be exposed to attack from Iranian anti-ship missile ranges. ‟10 (Sabahat. and if it would be limited in nature or not will all determine the likelihood of success in Iran being able to close the Strait.

or actual invasion -. and adding net production capacity takes time and is increasingly costly to develop. motivated by ‗national economic survival. No ―obligation to supply‖ a depleting. will become structural. Founder of International Association of Energy Economists. to restore the ‗free flow of reasonable priced oil‘ . nor catastrophic falls in the oil price and their export revenues.leading inevitably to armed resistance. As noted above. as in Iraq. and especially substitutes for oil. Even the most unconditional believers in ―unlimited oil and gas reserves‖ accept that covering depletion loss.vheadline. In fact the exact opposite: the US-UK invasion of Iraq has effectively sabotaged or neutralized Iraq‘s oil export capacity for many years.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage 2NC Impact Outweighs 4/4 Oil spike causes nuclear great power war McKillop. that is armed conflict for remaining reserves of oil and natural gas between the world‘s economic superpowers.of Iraq in 2003 -did not in any way ‗facilitate and improve‘ oil supplies to the large consumer countries and groups of countries. when or if they choose to husband or conserve their non-renewable resources. or group of oil-importer nations with nuclear weapons capability can adopt the same ‗oil supply security‘ doctrine. or threat of large nations or groups of nations ‗jumping the queue‘ and taking oil and gas production capacity wherever it already exists -. The risk of great power rivalry for remaining oil and gas reserves is high . by exporters. More importantly in the short-term there is an increasingly urgent need to limit and head off oil and gas price explosions able to trigger ‗great power rivalry‟ .. political deciders in the US have considered that any embargo or ‗unreasonable‘ reduction in supplies of oil. as it was called by George Bush-1 at the time of the ‗liberation‘ of Kuwait in real. „4 (October 10. must ensure that oil producers are not exposed to military invasion. The risk. and cap their oil or gas production before reducing it. http://www. non-renewable resource The same effort will also reduce ‗threats to economic security‘ of the large oil importer nations and groups of nations.. A ny other large oilimporter nation. “Energy Transition And Final Energy Crisis” Oil and Gas Journal. is hostile to US vital interests -. will therefore reduce invasion risks for oil and gas exporter countries. Participation in faster development and construction of non-oil. current and future oil and gas ‗supply gaps‘. and to a lesser extent Africa. causing undersupply to markets. perhaps modeled on or incorporating the Kyoto Treaty.asp?id=23067) Geopolitical risk: In the mid-term and long-term there is recognized need to cut oil and gas burning to limit climate change. non-gas renewable energy alternatives to fossil fuels.opening the way to retortion or revenge by military invasion. as in Iraq -. Certainly since 1973. Any international plan and program for energy transition. instead of waiting for resource depletion and exhaustion to do the same job. This will raise the risks from failed attempts at obtaining oil reserves or production capacity through military invasion.‘ World regions most exposed to this risk are evidently the Middle East and Central Asia. 8 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . We can note that threats of using military invasion.

SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage ***UNIQUENESS*** 9 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .

NASA did have a plan for continuing the American advance into space. and it envisioned a fleet of new launch and crew vehicles that would not only send astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS). it was called the Constellation Program.S. There's vague talk of landing on a near-earth asteroid sometime after 2020 and. 2011 “Up. US space program ending Lovitt Travel writer 10/6/2009. “Twilight for U. the U. as NASA's view of the heavens tilts towards new priorities. sadly though. Last month. manned space program .com/2011/07/07/twilight-u-s-space-program/) As you may have heard. the space shuttle Atlantis will launch tomorrow for the last time. beyond at least in the way we have come to think about it. that‘s not the case. Rob A Unfortunately. This was part of a comprehensive ―Vision for Space Exploration‖ that would have replaced our halting and stumbling expansion into the solar system with a methodical step-by-step plan to move humans permanently into space.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Uniqueness – No Space Exploration Now The Space Shuttle Programs end will bring about a chill amongst the private sector and international space travel The Sydney Morning Herald July 10. of sending humans to Mars. a White House panel released a preliminary report questioning NASA‘s ability to pursue manned space flight in the years ahead. up and away” http://www. If NASA is ending the shuttle program you would think that a new program with a new space vehicle would be ready to begin. which is not expected to be ready to fill the void for at least five years. US ending space exploration plans now Davis. This launch will conclude the shuttle program and quite possibly. can the private sector fill the space gap? Filling the vacuum There‘s certainly nothing funny about the current state of the U. 7-7-‟11 (Joel. as John Glenn points out in his recent criticism of NASA. US astronauts will travel to Kazakhstan or South America for their ticket to the International Space Station aboard an ageing Soyuz. Space Program?” http://foreignpolicyblogs.S.html#ixzz1SC4Az3jy From here on. but also to the Moon to establish a small outpost. akin to trading down their business class seats for economy. Up until last year. this plan did not mesh well with new political and budget realities and was ended by President Obama.S. Foreign Policy Association. Low-earth travel is being farmed out to the private sector. space program . 10 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Among the findings: the proposed retirement of the space shuttle next year would lead to a seven-year gap in the country‘s human-launch capability. while a new heavy-lift rocket becomes a focus of NASA's drawing board and the conduit to its deep space ambitions. a crisis and the future of space travel With NASA a no-go.smh.

php?cat=21&incat=&read=160) Nevertheless. 1999. Jerusalem Post. Vick ‟10 (Charles P. 1999. 2. 2000. and mobilize the required resources for the projects. "Iran in Space". pp. Oct 1. O'Sullivan. He was the recipient of the "Ayatollah Khomeni" citation among It was reported in the Jerusalem Post on July 12. 42. Aug.. No. Iran has failed to reach even the basic stages in these grandiose projects after many years of effort. a close examination of the projects that Iran has been engaged in indicates its great difficulty in attaining these Spaceflight. May 6. In other words. 17 July. that Ali Mahmudi Mimand the Chief engineer in the Iranian Ministries Satellites and Aeronautics Industry had passed away under mysterious circumstances that have not been explained. http://www. resolve conflicting demands. Iran plans joint satellite project with China. Arieh. He was called the "father of Iran's Missiles".SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Uniqueness – No Iran Space Now Iran has failed numerous times in efforts to conquer space Shapir „5 . Vol. Iran is motivated to achieve far-reaching goals. pp. Aviation Week & Space Technology. "Key Iranian missile man dies mysteriously". Iran also has a significant technological infrastructure. Iran approves funds for a domestic satellite. This is paramount to the loss of the Designer General of Iran's missile program which. Space News. November 2005. 17.inss. IRIS series and the other tactical missiles such as the (ASM) Air to Surface Missile system for Iranian helicopters. Vol. "China. 2000. A15. Iran's deadly missile potential. 2001 p. p. Space Business News. 2001. Yiftah (Iran‟s Efforts to Conquer Space. 7. July 16. http://www. 2001 which was. Theo. Iran. Shahid Hemat Industrial group at its facilities south of Teheran. Space News. 45. 319. Kenneth Timmerman. 1999. inevitable. 2000. this could point to questions on Iran's capability to materialize other ambitious programs. The Washington Times. voice of IRIFPN 00:20:30 GMT. The reasons for this failure are not clear but they seem to be linked to the government‘s inherent inability to coordinate government agencies. Iran Pursue Imaging Spacecraft". Death of Iranian chief engineer will further cause setbacks in developmental programs. 18. January 25. If this assessment is correct and the Iranian failure is a deep systemic failure. quoting the Saudi Arabian newspaper Ashark al-Awsat. 8. will cause some setbacks in the program which is already delayed due to development problems. 11 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Chief Engineer Mimand headed the Zelzal (earthquake). the engine is stalled and important projects are being delayed. No.fas. p. Iran (Reuters) 4:43. Craig. Tehran. stages that other states attained a long time ago . 3. Tehran. Nevertheless. Covault. His position was such that he was the head of many different rocket projects that came under his authority including the Shahab-1 through 6. 12. "Russia prepared to build Iranian satellite. Kosar. such as in the realms of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. Vol. Strategic Assessment. Iran to launch three birds in two years. Pirard.

which would carry nuclear warheads . ―continuing to work on producing more capable MRBMs.‖ The only MRBM launched was announced to be a Shahab 3. It has not flight-tested. intelligence community projected that Iran could test an ICBM within ―a few years. and developing space launch vehicles. Government is correct in assessing that Tehran has not yet made a decision to build nuclear weapons. an advanced derivative of the Shahab 3. using the Safir Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) and predicted that it would be followed by another satellite launch in the summer. Reading Between the Lines There are.900 kmrange‖ missile flights tests in February. Unlike the larger Samorgh SLV that had been displayed as a mockup in February.‖ Most analysts predicted back then either ―even odds‖ or a ―likely chance‖ that Iran would test an ICBM by 2010. It is more likely that the Iranians see the Sejjil 2 as the preferred carrier for a possible future nuclear warhead.‖ [2] The still unofficial Report on Sanctions of the UN Panel of Experts completed in May 2011 revealed that the Iranians had conducted two unannounced tests of the Sejjil 2 MRBM (in October 2010 and February 2011) [3] in addition to the five flight tests it had conducted since 2007. if the U. medium-term delivery boils down to two existing systems: the liquid fuel. Tehran‘s present military focus is on demonstrating and enhancing its conventional capability to deter and defeat a preventive attack on the Islamic Republic itself. Neither missile was flown during ―Great Prophet 6.100 km. 7-12-‟11 (“Iranian Missile Messages: Reading Between the Lines of "Great Prophet 6"” http://www. A Long-Range Missile Threat Not Yet in Sight In a 1999 National Intelligence Estimate. which incorporate technology directly applicable to longer-range missile systems . [4] roughly the same as the Sejjil 2 MRBM. conversion of the Safir SLV to a ballistic missile would still only deliver a nuclear-sized payload about 2. an unlikely candidate for fulfilling Iran‟s likely nuclear delivery capability aspirations. This summer‘s ―Great Prophet 6‖ exercise provides more evidence that. there would appear to be time for dissuading it from doing so. the most important question is how much progress the exercises demonstrate toward Iran developing and deploying the missiles. in 2009.armscontrol. the U. For those seeking to prevent or dissuade Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. according to the IISS Strategic Dossier. however. while Tehran makes steady progress on augmenting its stocks of enriched uranium and while R&D work continues on its most likely MRBM candidate for being able to deliver a future nuclear weapon within the region. Iran is apparently feeling no need to exercise its only operational missile suited for the nuclear mission and the missile best suited for the nuclear mission has not yet reached an operational status appropriate for exercising. and the solid fuel Sejjil 2 MRBM. an IRBM or ICBM – the missile categories most relevant to threatening the territories of NATO Europe and the United States.) The Iranians launched their second satellite in May 2011. a two-stage system with sufficient range to target Israel from launch sites throughout Iran.S. It is possible that the Iranians foresee using the Ghadr 1 as a nuclear weapons platform. The Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis reported to Congress in 2011 that Iran was fielding increased numbers of SRBMs and MRBMs. Thus. but not yet operational. in spite of the disadvantages inherent to liquid fuel mobile missiles – in terms of their limited mobility and greater vulnerability to attack. or indeed even asserted a need for.S. other conclusions to be drawn from Iran‘s flexing of missile muscles. senior military and defense officials testified to Congress that shifting from deployment of strategic interceptors to Europe in a third site to a program for deploying theater interceptors in a ―Phased Adaptive Approach‖ was appropriate since the Iranian ICBM threat was evolving more slowly than previously thought. (A senior Iranian Republican Guard Corps Commander recently confirmed two previously unannounced ―1. single stage Ghadr 1 MRBM. However. 12 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Uniqueness – No Nuclear Missile Capability Now Current missiles don‟t have nuclear payload – space expansion key Arms Control Association.

[44] U. points out that Tehran has a history of making grandiose statements about possessing a certain technological feat long before it is operational.S.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: Recent Launches Prove Iran Space Capability 1/2 Current launches haven‟t been enough – Iran has to test more satellites launches for it to be a threat Rawnsley. Current Iranian capabilities are only rhetoric Kass.wired. surmises that the international community remains unconcerned. its desire to puff out its chest and pronounce immunity from the effects of international sanctions has led to some absurd exaggerations and outright lies. it‘s worth taking Iran‘s boasts with a grain of salt. the Iranian space endeavor is a growing 6-16-‟11 (Adam. State and Defense departments did not issue official statements or comments the week after Russia launched Iran‘s first satellite. Defense Contractor. “Iran Claims Launch of Second Homebrew Before you cancel that European vacation or start building a bomb shelter.[42] That has yet to happen.[41] For instance.[43] Perhaps that explains why the press departments in the White House and Ahmadinejad‘s speech the previous day about his plan to ―wipe Israel off the map‖ overshadowed the event. Patrick Even if Rasad actually made it to space. Iran‘s government-run radio announced that the country would launch three satellites within two years. Richard Speier. Clawson surmises that the world also believes Tehran lacks the requisite infrastructure to develop an independent satellite production program.html) International Affairs. Iran has used Photoshop to make its missile launches look more fearsome.[40] In addition to concurring with this assessment. which reinforces the perception that an operational Iranian space capability is mere rhetoric. „6 (Lee. September. Political rhetoric 13 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . “Iran‟s Space Program: The Next Genie In A Bottle?” Middle East Review of http://meria. it probably had a bumpy ride. an Iranian expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.idc. Danger Room. welded oil drums together to look like advanced air defense systems and talked up its the allegedly homemade S-300 air defense missile. Iran‘s space program and its efforts to develop long-range missiles have yet to generate sufficient global concern.‘s Charles Vick tells the New York Times that the launch has taken the Iranians ―far longer than they advertised‖ because of sanctions and management issues. in July 1999. an arms control expert at the National Defense University. While Iran has cooked up some indigenous weaponry over the years. Satellite” http://www. because the space program remains relatively low-profile.

Iran released few details about the satellite. NYT. or messenger. Still. an expert on Iranian rockets at GlobalSecurity. Vick. impact on their getting foreign technology and including at least one for reconnaissance. Vick said in an interview.‖ said Marcia S. The reason. a private research group in Alexandria. Va. Mr. Western experts said it weighed about 100 pounds — meaning that the light payload and the modest rocket carrying it bore little resemblance to an intercontinental missile and its heavy warhead. bears the satellite‘s image. Iranians Launch a Satellite” http://www. as high as 280 miles.html?_r=1) Iran said it launched a satellite into orbit on Wednesday that Western aerospace experts said could be used for limited military reconnaissance and also to monitor crops and track damage from earthquakes. The announcement of the launching on Wednesday came on the country‘s Arabic-language television channel. Analysts in the American intelligence community view the university as having close ties to the Revolutionary Guard. the equivalent of 50 cents. but the mission then was delayed.nytimes. In theory. appeared to be managerial failures and ―sanctions that have been having a significant summer. Iranian scientists have long hailed the benefits of Earthobservation satellites for tracking floods. Va.‖ the report said of the satellite. ―Everybody‘s been expecting this. fired the satellite into an orbit with a maximum height of 162 miles.‖ Iranian news reports said that the Rasad-1 was built by the Malek-Ashtar University. Al-Alam. Iranian media reports have said the Safir rocket can carry a satellite weighing 110 pounds into elliptical orbits Western nations fear that Iran is trying to develop a missile capability under cover of its space program that could also threaten to deliver nuclear warheads. the Islamic Republic‘s main enforcers. flooding and other natural disasters. gauging earthquake ―It‘s a significant step forward for the Iranians.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: Recent Launches Prove Iran Space Capability 2/2 Past satellites launches have not been threatening but Iranian progress in space will be Broad.‖ said Charles P. or Observation-1. In February. the biggest might eventually be powerful enough to hurl not only satellites into space. ―It is capable of photographing the Earth.‖ He described the Iranian satellite as an experimental craft designed mainly for tracking the Earth‘s resources from space. 6-15-‟11 (William. aerospace experts said the successful launching demonstrated Iranian engineers‘ growing skill and contrasted with the repeated failures endured by North Korea in trying to place payloads into orbit. It was the second time that an Iranian rocket had carried a satellite into orbit and took place more than two years after Iran joined the international space club by launching its first satellite. 14 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . The Iranians called it a rudimentary communications craft. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced plans to launch several Iranian-built satellites this year. But the spacecraft. finding evacuation routes and identifying high-risk areas. The nation‘s 5. Still. Vick noted that the Iranians had announced that Rasad-1 would be lofted last ―It‘s taken them far longer than they advertised. ―could also be used for low-resolution reconnaissance.000 rial banknote. The channel said Rasad-1 would circle the Earth 15 times a day and should operate for two months. he said.‖ Mr. He also repeated a claim that Tehran would send an Iranian astronaut into space by 2020. Iran denies that it has any ambition to develop an atom bomb and asserts that both its space and nuclear programs are peaceful. Iran placed its first satellite into orbit in February 2009. he added. “After Delay. Smith. fighting fires. a news blog in Arlington. founder of SpacePolicyOnline. which it calls Rasad-1. The channel said a rocket known as Safir. But it is openly developing a group of increasingly large rockets .com/2011/06/16/world/middleeast/16iran. it did not come as a surprise to those who monitor Iran‘s efforts. but also warheads between continents.

SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage ***LINKS AND INTERNALS*** 15 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .

But this global exploration strategy has not been addressed at a political level and does not represent a political strategy shared by an enlarged community of international partners. 16 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . At the space-agency level. ESA and NASA made a significant step by taking a joint initiative for a systematic robotic exploration of Mars. though the United States remains committed to explore beyond low-Earth orbit. ‟10 (Jean-Jacques. also. other robotic missions should be planned as precursors to human exploration. But we can't develop the political vision. to widen the base of stakeholders and increase the synergy between space-bound and Earth-bound interests. we can develop a common architecture for human space exploration . we have decided to use every opportunity to go to Mars together. “Space Exploration in the 21st Century: Global Opportunities and Challenges” http://www. but they are individual plans rather than a contribution to a global scenario. Constellation program is being terminated. A global exploration strategy has been developed by fourteen space agencies.html) Develop Robotic Exploration Plans Last year. including current partners as well as potential new partners of the ISS. including ESA. and allow the testing of possibilities and techniques for "living off the land. A high-level political forum. should be set up with the objectives of developing a common vision for exploration. around or on the surface of other destinations such as the moon or asteroids. "… the question about the future is not to predict it. Other partners may have therefore. Such missions should provide detailed information on the topography and geochemical properties of the surface of these destinations." A major interest of robotic investigation is to involve industrial expertise outside the traditional space industry and. In Europe we are currently reflecting on our future human exploration plans. Define a Human Space Exploration Scenario As Administrator Bolden has noted. We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Director-General of European Space Agency. the partnership is not closed and must be open to other partners . October 24. There." So let us work together to make it possible. Which partner in the world has the willingness and credibility to propose such a political forum? I am convinced that the United States is the best suited to take such an initiative … but when? As the French author and aviator Saint-Exupéry said. but to make it possible. and we have already defined joint missions that will be launched in 2016 and 2018. Beyond this Mars robotic exploration plan. The ultimate goal is a joint Mars sample return in the mid-2020s.S.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Link – Mars Exploration Mars exploration boosts international space capabilities through cooperation and information sharing Dordain. The U. there is no common vision among international partners about a human space-exploration scenario beyond the exploitation of the ISS.nasa.

because the problem cannot be solved by one country acting alone. 17 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .”International Space Station to manoeuvre to dodge debris” Moscow http://www. SWF Technical Advisor and one of the meeting's organizers.spacetravel. According to the Outer Space Treaty of 1967. "It is just too expensive and too difficult to go it alone. "The 2010 Beijing Space Debris Mitigation Workshop underscored the importance of international dialog and cooperation on space debris among all spacefaring nations.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Link – Debris Every country would be involved in any US space debris activity (AFP) Oct 26. 2010 (Staff Writers." said Brian Weeden. Weeden said.html) In addition to the complex issues of engineering and physics ." Existing international law reinforces this need for international countries that place objects in space retain jurisdiction over those objects in perpetuity. actively removing space debris raises a number of legal and policy issues as well.

This An additional point that does not fit with the mechanism criteria nor the preconditions is worth discussion nonetheless. 18 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . The likelihood of the Obama Administration dropping or ending the US human spaceflight program is low given the prestige and other considerations that have undergirded US human space exploration since its inception during the Eisenhower administration. which demonstrates that the country put a premium on further understanding this Iran built a facility to obtain photographs soon after the United States launched the first system designed to capture imagery of the Earth. (Lee. Whether the Obama Administration will push forward aggressively or. situation.idc.cspo.” which appeared in the fall 2005 edition of Middle East Quarterly. Iranian efforts to exploit space started over thirty years ago. and its personnel maintained operations while the country experienced a revolution and a devastating conflict with neighboring Iraq. of U.S. „7 (Audrey. “Design of a Mechanism to Organize International Collaboration on http://www. and he co-authored the cover article “Observation From Orbit. especially to develop parallel space transportation capabilities. March 31.thespacereview. In order to deal with the rise and fall of dominant players. and distributing relevant material to users throughout the country for resource planning and management. conflict resolution. Virginia.html) arena. No. Space Policy Institute. nuclear strategy. Given that the United States currently has the most resources invested in exploration.[2] The US has always been the leader in space Roger Handber 2010 (“The future of American human space exploration and the “Critical Path”” http://www. Iran models the US Kass „6. processing. multilateral structures are necessary because they engage all players. 3. If other space agencies begin investing more resources. His publications include “Syria after Lebanon: The Growing Syrian Missile Threat. Volume 10. or at least acceptance.” which appeared in the December 2003 edition of Jane‟s International Defense Who will be the leader of the mechanism? Will there be formal leader? How will a leader or leaders affect the functioning of the mechanism? First. His focus areas are arms control.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Link – US Modeled 1/2 US space leadership spurs international efforts to model US action This unipolar posture. other leaders may emerge. http://meria. Article 2/10 .org/igscdocs/Audrey%20Schaffer. missile defense.pdf) Space Exploration” Many interviewees raised the question of leadership. The IRSC helps officials determine suitable areas to develop. however. it seems natural that other space agencies would plan their activities around those of the United States . however. January 11) The pattern has been clear: the US leads and others follow .September and the Middle East. more likely. leadership of exploration . many space agencies expressed interest. The Iranian Remote Sensing Center (IRSC) is responsible for gathering. Defense Contractor in McLean. assumes that the United States is willing to lead in terms of paying the major portion of the costs of any international space project. may change over time. seek alternatives is unimportant except that the United States will continue in whatever configuration is agreed upon.

19 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . 3. nuclear strategy.[4] Iran attempted partially to do that by Admiral Ali Shamkhani. On January That has yet to occur.September 2006. Virginia. Article 2/10 . stated that ―Iran will be the first Islamic country to penetrate the stratosphere with its own satellite and with its own launch system. No. Possessing imagery and other types of material from space will assist Tehran to identify areas suitable manufacturing satellites. but Iran still seeks a space capability partly because of America‘s growing regional presence. conflict resolution.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Link – US Modeled 2/2 Iran seeks space program in response to the US Kass „6. the satellite launch would be in response to American actions: ―The Persian Gulf was once a place from which constant threats against the Islamic Republic emanated. with the resources that we are gaining. missile defense. Defense Contractor in McLean. 2003.(Lee. the country‘s former defense minister. and he co-authored the cover article “Observation From Orbit.” which appeared in the fall 2005 edition of Middle East Quarterly.‖ When he made this announcement.” which appeared in the December 2003 edition of Jane‟s International Defense Review. His publications include “Syria after Lebanon: The Growing Syrian Missile Threat.‖ According to Shamkhani. His focus areas are arms control. Tehran figured it was the next target after coalition forces met their objectives in Iraq. this region cannot be used against us by any outside force. Volume 10. for development and those to be avoided because of their susceptibility to earthquakes and floods. But now.html) Iran seeks to accomplish these and other broad objectives in order to become more technologically advanced. and the Middle East.idc. Rear within eighteen months.

Ultimately. Perched on top of a giant Atlas V rocket ready to take it into space. 2010. if it passes its tests successfully. a former bureau chief for the Aviation Week and Space Technology magazine. http://www. it is not hard. The robotic shuttle. reusable space vehicle.atimes.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Link – Perceived Military Threats Iran worries about US space advancements – they‟d advance their own programs in the event of military threat Kotsev 5/4/10 Victor using its wings to bend its re-entry track east and so put down again in California." commented William Scott. launched by Russia in 2005. makes it an ideal reconnaissance and anti-satellite platform. The Islamic Republic's space program is already fairly advanced. "A shuttle [is] able to lift off from Vandenberg [US Air Force base in California]." said Everett Dolman. This information might help explain Iran's worries about the project. Due to its small payload. in addition to the ability to adjust orbit. and Omid. research and writting
Asian Times. 20 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . would add important new capabilities for the US Air Force. speculations that it might be used for orbital bombardment also appear unrealistic. DOA: 7/15/11 United States government officials promptly denied the claims. Its length is just 8. the X-37B looks diminutive and unimpressive. however. Mayr. "Ultimately. however. launched by a domestically-built rocket last year." said a spokesperson for the project. to imagine much more active military roles. Asian times. Some go even further in their speculation.25 meters. the most obvious and formidable is in service as a space fighter .htmll. there is an intimate connection to the Iranian nuclear program that provides context to the Iranian fears. it would help service expensive US military satellites. it is unlikely that it poses any real danger to Iranian (or any other) satellites. and the country has two satellites in orbit: Sinah-1.during which time it could deploy something or pick something up .and then re-enter. bringing the total weight to about five tons. favored by most espionage satellites. At the very least. "orbit at a high angle from the Equator once . It rests in the changing role of nuclear weapons for military strategy with the advance of science and technological capacity. "Regardless of its original intent. never having overflown any nation of concern". professor at the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies at the Maxwell-Gunter Air Force Base. weapons could be delivered from a space plane in low Earth orbit." writes Lewis Page for The Register. US military‟s robotic shuttle spooks Iran. " The X-37B is a risk reduction vehicle for space experimentation and to explore concepts of operation for a long duration.8 meters and its height is less than three meters. Since the X-37B is still in the early stages of being tested. without being detected. It is especially well-adapted to enter and leave polar-type orbit.a remotely piloted craft capable of disabling multiple satellites in orbit on a single mission and staying on orbit for months to engage newly orbited platforms. However. this small size. The wingspan is 4. Several other satellites and space missions are in the works.

with America in the lead.S. During those years. the United States cannot afford to fall behind.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Link – Space Exploration  Collaboration US space exploration spurs international space exploration by other countries Obama for America. but has since failed to provide adequate funding or leadership to move forward with that agenda.S. NASA has had to slash its research budget. including its aeronautical Barack Obama will use space as a strategic tool of U. microgravity research that can yield new technologies. and engage members of the developing world . and even the robotic exploration of the outer solar system and the universe beyond. diplomacy to strengthen relations with allies. its programs to study climate change. space program has inspired people the world over with its feats on behalf of all NASA has been working with 13 other space agencies to develop a globally coordinated approach to space exploration . key programs have suffered. • Collaborating on Exploration: The United States needs to fully involve international partners in future exploration plans to help reduce costs and to continue close ties with our ISS partners.pdf) Historically.aiaa.pdf) Collaborating with the International Community Space exploration must be a global effort. As a result. „8 (Advancing the Frontiers of Space Exploration” http://www. „8 (Advancing the Frontiers of Space Exploration” http://www. Barack Obama will not only continue but intensify this effort .aiaa. Space exploration causes international collaboration on space activities Obama for America. the Bush administration set an ambitious agenda for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). reduce future conflicts. indeed. the United States will have to depend on foreign rockets and spacecraft to send Americans to orbit. This leadership can continue. the U. Poor planning and inadequate funding are leading to at least a five-year gap after the retirement of the Space Shuttle. Many other countries are moving forward in space. 21 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Human exploration beyond low-earth orbit should be a long-term goal and investment for all space faring countries.

22 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . as described in #4 of the U. The United States is not comfortable collaborating with every nation and is not likely to agree to the ―everyone is welcome‖ principle. The United States wants the ability to control which space agencies join the mechanism. This criterion runs contrary to one of the criteria of the United States. Space Policy Institute.pdf) Space Exploration” The mechanism must be open to all space agencies that want to participate in exploration . „7 (Audrey. Resolving this issue will be critical in developing the initial terms of reference of the mechanism and will require NASA (the likely representative for the United States) to consult heavily with the White House and Department of State.S.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: US Would Exclude Iran Can‟t exclude Iran – international collaboration in space is open to all countries Schaffer. criteria). March 31. Many interviewees described space exploration as a way to foster international stability and bring developing space agencies into a common international system.cspo. Space agencies do not want to treat space exploration as an area for competition. Every interviewee who commented on the subject of membership said that any nation should be welcome to participate in the international collaboration whether or not they meet the objective membership criteria (such as investment levels and technical capability. given that the nation has at least some small budget invested in exploration programs. “Design of a Mechanism to Organize International Collaboration on http://www.

A recent International Atomic Energy Agency report said there was evidence Iranian scientists were studying ways to build nuclear warheads compact enough to be carried by a missile. said Iran is focused on the military applications of space science." Modanlo. sanctions and is free on $250.S. The trial is expected to begin in October 2012. Iran went on to launch its first satellite aboard an Iranian-built rocket in 2009 and its second earlier this month. But their refusal to disclose all their nuclear activities has raised international suspicions. he isn't charged with shipping U. and it appears to be an ongoing program. McDowell called it an impressive record for a country in the early stages of its space program. Iranian officials insist that they are pursuing nuclear technology strictly for peaceful purposes. is to develop a missile that can carry a nuclear warhead if Iran decides to build one. Jonathan McDowell of the HarvardSmithsonian Center for Astrophysics said the June 15 launch of the tiny Rashad-1 satellite. 2011 (http://www. denies that he violated U. "But after that. But experts. Defendants have been accused of using shell companies. they will basically have the capability to know what they're doin g. If convicted on all counts. "They might have a couple of more failures in the next couple of launches. sanctions against Iran. 23 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Ahmadinejad recently announced Iran was expanding its uranium enrichment program. Md. in violation of the U. The 2005 launch from Russia of the Sina-1 satellite came one day after newly-elected Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel must be "wiped off the map.S. bringing the country another step closer to the capacity to build weapons. technology to Iran. Instead. shows the country is well on its way to mastering the multi-stage rocket technology that would be needed for longrange nuclear missiles. June 27. Five Iranian nationals were also indicted. 50.S.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Link – Espionage Modanlo leak shows how Iranian technology is based off US Associated Press. a 34-pound orbiter.. offshore bank accounts and faked end-user certificates to supply Tehran with everything from U." To many. an expert on nuclear proliferation.S. The Justice Department said Modanlo's case is just one of more than 150 filed by prosecutors in the past four years against arms traders and middlemen suspected of helping Tehran illegally acquire U. he could be sentenced to 65 years in prison and ordered to pay $10 million. technology.Yet Modanlo's case stands out." he said. He declined through his lawyers to be interviewed.-made component parts for missile guidance systems to the ultra-highstrength steel needed to build centrifuges that enrich uranium. court documents and other public records describe how his ambitions might have led him into trouble. the launch seemed to back up this threat.S. and officials from the Justice Department and U. he is suspected of using his business contacts and aerospace engineering experience to help launch Iran's space program. David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security." he A federal grand jury indicted the Potomac. resident last year on charges he secretly brokered the launch from Russia of the first Iranian-owned satellite in 2005. Immigration and Customs Enforcement likewise declined to discuss the case. and has led to four rounds of United Nations sanctions since 2006.S.000 bond. Unlike most of those prosecuted under the act. " One of the goals of the program. but none are in custody.foxnews.

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Link – Russia (Debris Module) 1/2
Russia part of IADC – Will cooperate with U.S. on Debris
ESA 2008 (ESOC: Focal point for ESA space debris activities,
Te Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC)

is one of the world's leading technical organisations with space debris is. ESA is a founding member of IADC, together with NASA, the Russian Aviation and Space Agency, ROSA VIAKOSMOS, and Japan. Subsequent members include ASI (Italy), BNSC
(UK), CNES (France), the Chinese National Space Administration (CNSA), DLR (Germany), ISRO (India) and the National Space Agency of the Ukraine (NSAU).

IADC's primary purpose is to exchange information on space debris research activities, to facilitate opportunities for cooperation in space debris research, to review the progress of ongoing cooperative activities and to identify debris mitigation options. Iran‟s space program is based on and aided by Russia
CIA 11/16/2011 (, date accessed, 7/15/11)

An OSW review of open source material indicates that there has been a consensus for several years among prominent Russian space experts that Iran is seeking to develop space launch technology to develop an ICBM capability but there is disagreement about how quickly that goal can be achieved. In contrast, most statements over the past year Moscow appears to have become more worried about the security implications of assisting Tehran with the further development of its space capability. Iran‘s Ambassador to Russia, for example, complained publicly about a slowdown in space-related cooperation. Most Russian military and scientific space experts judge that recent Iranian space launches demonstrate that Iran is moving forward in developing multistage separation and propulsion technology and is increasingly capable of developing a space launch vehicle with an advanced payload capacity. Viktor Mizin, deputy head of the Moscow State University of International Relations‘ Institute of International Studies, in September 2009 said that ―over the past five to seven years, Iran has mastered technology to develop both liquid-fueled and solid-propelled rocket engines, as well as multistage launch vehicles.‖ Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin, first vice president of the Russian Academy of Security, Defense and Law and a former Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Strategic Rocket Troops, in March 2009 said that, in ― addition to work to develop rocket staging, the Iranians appear to have acquired a more sophisticated rocket propulsion capability -2 rocket last year,
calling them ―groundless‖ in some cases. Nonetheless, noted that ―It is quite extraordinary to use a two-stage rocket of such a small launch mass (up to 25 ton) for a spacecraft launch mission. In order for the upper stage to gain the required velocity to deliver even a small satellite into orbit, it should have a rather sophisticated design.‖ Vladimir Yevseev, a senior research fellow with the Moscow-based Center for International Security of the Russian Academy of Sciences‘ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told the state-controlled RIA Novosti news agency in February 2009 that,

from Russian officials and legislators have tended to downplay both Iran‘s technical capabilities as well as its intentions to develop ICBMs,

since 2005, Iran has been developing space launch vehicles (SLVs) ―rumored to have an improved range of up to 10,000 km and featuring a three-stage design, with the first and second stages being propelled by liquid fuel, and the upper stage—by solid fuel.‖

―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖

SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists

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Link – Russia (Debris Module) 2/2
Russia aid with the Iranian Space Program has lead to ICBM‟s that could hit Moscow.
Bloomberg 2/3/2011(, date accessed 7/15/11)

Russian scientists are increasingly concerned that years of cooperation with Iran on its civilian space program has provided the technology for Iranian development of missiles that would be capable of reaching Tel Aviv or Moscow, according to a U.S. Central Intelligence Agency review of Russian press accounts and statements. Russian military and space experts have concluded that Iran has mastered technology for both liquid-fueled and solid- propelled rocket engines, as well as multistage launch vehicles. Russian officials and legislators, in contrast, are playing down Iran‘s capability and intentions to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), according to the unreleased Nov. 12 assessment

prepared by the CIA‘s Open Source Office. The report, based on unclassified sources of information from Russia, doesn‘t represent the coordinated views of the CIA, it says. Still, the document‘s a timely distillation as the United States attempts to win Russia‘s backing for a regional missile defense program to protect against the potential of Iranian nuclear-tipped missiles. The report points to Russia‘s state news, RIA Novosti, which in July 2010 noted Iran‘s orbiting of the Rasad-1, an Iranian-developed weather and navigation satellite, and reported that

Iran may be developing a ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 km

(2,485 miles) to 5,000 km (3,106 miles). That would have potentially the range to hit as far as London, 4,408 km (2,740 miles) away. Viktor Mizin, the deputy head of the Moscow State University of International Relations‘ Institute of International Studies, said in September 2009 he expected Iran within the decade to develop reliable medium-range missile systems with a range of about 3,000 km (1,864 miles). Missiles at that range could reach Tel Aviv, which is 1,598 km (993 miles) from Tehran, and Moscow, which is 2461 km (1,529 miles) from Iran‘s capital. Mizin also saw a move toward testing of Iran‘s first ICBM with a range of 3,500 km (2,174 miles) to 5,000 km (3,106 miles). ―A

variety of Russian experts over the past few years have said Tehran intends to use Space Launch Vehicle technology to develop ICBM systems that could reach targets throughout most of the Middle East,‖ said the CIA report. There is less consensus among Russian experts regarding the pace at which Iran will be able to develop ICBMs,‖
it said. While Russian officials and politicians downplayed Iranian capabilities and intentions to develop ICBMs, their actions showed concern growing over Russian assistance to the Iranian space programs, according the report said.

Russia ―appears reluctant‖ to help Iran with the development of the Zoreh telecommunications satellite with a lifespan of 15 years, the report said, citing the head of Russian Federal Space Agency who, during the 2009 Paris Air Show, said that ―no work is currently being done on a second Iranian satellite.‖

―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖

SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists

Iran Disadvantage

Link – Russia (Mars Module) 1/2
US will cooperate with Russia on a Mars mission
Cox The West Australian (Perth) July 2, 2011 Saturday (Sally, First Edition Into the next frontier; The last US shuttle to go to the space station blasts off in a week. So what do the superpowers have planned for space travel after that. SECTION: MAI; Pg. 54)

A manned mission to Mars is the next big adventure on the space agenda and there are three major players: the US, Russia and China. It has been estimated the mission will cost at least $20 billion and will take a minimum of 18 months for the return flight. Staggering under the weight of a growing national debt after the global financial crisis and two major conflicts, the US can ill afford the billions it costs for manned space flights, but it has already invested in the technology and has plans to send a car-sized robot called Curiosity to the red planet in the northern winter. The Russians have a simulated mission to Mars under way called Mars 500. At an aircraft hangar outside
So what now for the exploration of space?

Moscow, six volunteers have sealed themselves into a 550sqm module built to re-create the conditions of a spacecraft hurtling into deep space. The volunteers, three Russians, a Chinese, a Frenchman and an Italian, entered the module in June last year and will emerge 520 days later in November, having performed flight tasks and experiments with the highlight a simulated spacewalk on Mars in a big sandpit. The Russians predict there will be a manned flight to Mars by 2030. In 2003, China became the third country after Russia and the US to launch a manned space mission and was snubbed by the Bush administration when it expressed an interest in joining the International Space Station program. It is behind in technology, but China has a flourishing economy that may put a manned mission to Mars within reach. Back in 1969 when Armstrong took that one small step for man, it would have been unthinkable that Russia and the US, still at each other's throats during the

An international co-operation between the US, Russia and the Chinese would make it far more likely for a manned mission to Mars to succeed. It would be an achievement as inspiring to the human spirit of adventure as was that first Moon walk. Truly a marriage made on Mars. We're really not too far from going to the stars.' Astronaut John Young in 1981 after the first shuttle
Cold War, would join forces to further mankind's knowledge of space. But it came to pass. returned safely.

Iran‟s space program is based on and aided by Russia
CIA 11/16/2011 (, date accessed, 7/15/11)

An OSW review of open source material indicates that there has been a consensus for several years among prominent Russian space experts that Iran is seeking to develop space launch technology to develop an ICBM capability but there is disagreement about how quickly that goal can be achieved. In contrast, most statements
from Russian officials and legislators have tended to downplay both Iran‘s technical capabilities as well as its intentions to develop ICBMs, calling them ―groundless‖ in some cases. Nonetheless,

over the past year Moscow appears to have become more worried about the security implications of assisting Tehran with the further development of its space capability. Iran‘s Ambassador to Russia, for example, complained publicly about a slowdown in space-related cooperation. Most Russian military and scientific space experts judge that recent Iranian space launches demonstrate that Iran is moving forward in developing multistage separation and propulsion technology and is increasingly capable of developing a space launch vehicle with an advanced payload capacity. Viktor Mizin, deputy head of the Moscow State University of International Relations‘ Institute of International Studies, in September 2009 said that ―over the past five to seven years, Iran has mastered technology to develop both liquid-fueled and solid-propelled rocket engines, as well as multistage launch vehicles.‖ Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin, first vice president of the Russian Academy of Security, Defense and Law and a former Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Strategic Rocket Troops, in March 2009 said that, in ― addition to work to develop rocket staging, the Iranians appear to have acquired a more sophisticated rocket propulsion capability -2 rocket last year,
noted that ―It is quite extraordinary to use a two-stage rocket of such a small launch mass (up to 25 ton) for a spacecraft launch mission. In order for the upper stage to gain the required velocity to deliver even a small satellite into orbit, it should have a rather sophisticated design.‖ Vladimir Yevseev, a senior research fellow with the Moscow-based Center for International Security of the Russian Academy of Sciences‘ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told the state-controlled RIA Novosti news agency in February 2009 that,

since 2005, Iran has been developing space launch vehicles (SLVs) ―rumored to have an improved range of up to 10,000 km and featuring a three-stage design, with the first and second stages being propelled by liquid fuel, and the upper stage—by solid fuel.‖

―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖

it says. in contrast.000 km (3. Russian military and space experts have concluded that Iran has mastered technology for both liquid-fueled and solid.propelled rocket engines. according to a U. citing the head of Russian Federal Space Agency who. which is 2461 km (1. the report Missiles at that range could reach Tel Aviv. ― A variety of Russian experts over the past few years have said Tehran intends to use Space Launch Vehicle technology to develop ICBM systems that could reach targets throughout most of the Middle East.000 km (3. said that ―no work is currently being done on a second Iranian satellite. Still. The report points to Russia‘s state news. an Iranian-developed weather and navigation satellite. as well as multistage launch vehicles.‖ 27 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . the document‘s a timely distillation as the United States attempts to win Russia‘s backing for a regional missile defense program to protect against the potential of Iranian nuclear-tipped missiles.106 miles). said in September 2009 he expected Iran within the decade to develop reliable medium-range missile systems with a range of about 3. 12 assessment prepared by the CIA‘s Open Source Office. Viktor Mizin.408 km (2.000 km (1. Bloomberg 2/3/2011(http://www.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Link – Russia (Mars Module) 2/2 Russia aid with the Iranian Space Program has lead to ICBM‟s that could hit Moscow. 4. their actions showed concern growing over Russian assistance to the Iranian space programs. are playing down Iran‘s capability and intentions to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Russia ―appears reluctant‖ to help Iran with the development of the Zoreh telecommunications satellite with a lifespan of 15 years.174 miles) to 5.html. date accessed 7/15/11) Russian scientists are increasingly concerned that years of cooperation with Iran on its civilian space program has provided the technology for Iranian development of missiles that would be capable of reaching Tel Aviv or Moscow. Mizin also saw a move toward testing of Iran‘s first ICBM with a range of 3. during the 2009 Paris Air Show.529 miles) from Iran‘s capital.598 km (993 miles) from Tehran. There is less consensus among Russian experts regarding the pace at which Iran will be able to develop ICBMs. Central Intelligence Agency review of Russian press accounts and statements. according the report said.864 miles). RIA Novosti.106 miles). The report. based on unclassified sources of information from Russia.000 km (2. according to the unreleased Nov. and Moscow. and reported that Iran may be developing a ballistic missile with a range of 4.740 miles) away. doesn‘t represent the coordinated views of the CIA.500 km (2. Russian officials and which is 1.485 miles) to 5. That would have potentially the range to hit as far as London.S.‖ said the CIA report.‖ it said. While Russian officials and politicians downplayed Iranian capabilities and intentions to develop ICBMs. the deputy head of the Moscow State University of International Relations‘ Institute of International Studies. which in July 2010 noted Iran‘s orbiting of the Rasad-1.

but in showing off the country‘s apparent missile prowess.S. But in 2009.In the past. “Persia in Space: Implications for U. The technology that can launch a satellite into space is also useful for building longer range missiles. “Iran Claims Launch of Second Homebrew Satellite” http://www. ―We need [space-related] science for friendship. 28 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .‖6 A newly space-faring Iran only provides further impetus for constructing the comprehensive.pdf) skeptical: Institute Policy Analysis. into space. to push for a missile shield that could intercept Iranian or North Korean ballistic missiles headed towards Europe .S. A spokesman said: ―The mere fact that this launch involves dual-purpose capabilities is what causes concern to us in this government. Sina-1. Space expansion provides impetus for ICBM missile capabilities – threatens the US homeland multi-layered missile defense (ICBMs) system America has begun building in Europe and at home. Danger Room.S. The technology that‘s used to…propel this satellite into space is one that could also be used to propel long-range ballistic missiles.‖5 America should be Iran can and probably is using space-related science to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads. a two-stage. 6-16-‟11 (Adam. Iran had to rely on Russia to put its spy satellite. February. To get Omid into orbit Iran used the Safir-2 rocket. brotherhood. It‘s that kind of dual-use potential that gets American defense planners‟ attention. Department of Defense (DoD) expressed similar concerns after confirming Iran‘s claims. The Iranian government said ―promoting the national space industry‖4 remains the main objective of its indigenous space program. the Islamic Republic managed to launch the Omid (meaning ―hope‖) satellite all by itself. 72-foot-long. forming a milestone in the country‘s space program.marshall. and justice.wired. The U. Fears of an emerging Iranian missile capability have motivated the U. „9 (James. Iranian President Ahmadinejad told state The significance of the satellite launch doesn‘t so much lie in the demonstration of Iran‘s satellite technology. National Security” Marshall http://www. 26ton tricked out version of Iran‘s Shahab-3 missile.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Internal Link – Duel-Use 1/4 Iran‟s satellite technology is dual-use – provides significant nuclear advancements (causes US ballistic missile defense) Rawnsley. George Marshall Institute.

Worse. Rubin March 20. the teams (or the team?) that designed them can use the accredited know-how and accumulated experience to design capable intercontinental ballistic missiles." take your embryonic ICBM and call it "Safir Space Launcher.and clothe their military program in the peaceful guise of space activity.S. subscribed today by 34 industrialized nations (Russia included) defines space launchers as missiles for every practical purpose. Iran. Yet the fact is that someone. does not distinguish between the two. Explorer 1 were lofted to Earth orbits aboard slightly modified ballistic missiles. Self-delusion will not help here. the stage separation systems. The truth must be said: Iran's space program is no more peaceful than its nuclear program. castigated internationally after each of its provocative Shahab and Sajeel ballistic missile tests.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Internal Link – Duel-Use 2/4 Iran can use “peaceful space technology” for delivery systems for ICBMs. Ballistic missiles and space launchers are so intertwined launched it.the rocket motors. can modify them into space launchers .to contravene international norms and regulations In practical terms." Chances are that Western gullibility will buy the hoax. 2009 (Uzi Rubin is an Israeli defense engineer and analyst. The appearance in 1998 of the North Korean Paektusan 1 that failed to orbit a satellite. 29 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . The MTCR. By rights. North Korea swoop to conquer. when the success of the Safir space launcher was received with indifference in the United States and elsewhere. ballistic missiles and space launchers existed in close symbiosis. one can only imagine the pleasant surprise of the Iranian leadership. and bans the sale of their key technologies except to responsible governments and under strict assurances of end use. the only international instrument that governs the sale of missiles and their technologies. the tepid reaction in the United States and the West to this watershed event served as a powerful inducement for Iran. and the Iranian Safir that succeeded to do so in 2009. While this interchangeability between missiles and space launchers was always obvious to experts. It probably dawned on those leaders that there was no better way to flex Iran's missile muscles than by disguising it as peaceful space "research. are too puny by themselves to send meaningful payloads across oceans. Hence. lexis) Iran's recent breakthrough in placing its own satellite in orbit by a homemade multistage rocket earned it the distinction of being the first radical regime that reaches space. Ever since the dawn of the space age.or politically motivated enough .should have been denied to the two missile-brandishing countries. their guidance and control instrumentation . the Soviet Union's Sputnik and the U. made a mockery of the MTCR. somewhere was greedy enough . Let's make no mistake about it. that the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)." Take your theater ballistic missile and call it "Kavoshgar Sounding Rocket. proficiency in space launching is synonymous with a proficiency in missile engineering. North Korea and other potential nuclear wannabees to camouflage their offensive missile programs in the guise of peaceful space activities . Even if the Paektusan and Safir to supply the two with all their space and missile needs. it was less so to political and military leaderships. SPECIAL TO THE WASHINGTON TIMES America's new space rivals. The first two satellites in human history. The alarm in the United States at the Soviet achievement did not come from the rudimentary 80 kilogram ball of metal that beeped its way in space but from the rocket that Any rocket that can propel a satellite into Earth orbit can be easily modified and upscaled to drop a significant bomb anywhere on Earth. Or the other way around: The same teams that designed the long-range rocketry of these two radical players. every key technology utilized in those launchers .

Exploiting this event would unite Iran politically complicating Washington's External support continues to help advance Iran's space effort. Enhancing the Shahab to become satellite-guided would allow Iran to strike Israel and United States military forces stationed throughout the region precisely. space launchers are normally prepared for flight over a period of many weeks. For starters. must perform reliably under a variety of operational conditions. The propaganda Teheran espouses following this event might unite the country. http://iranprimer. for example. the launch can be delayed.range missile programs. so there is good reason to be concerned about Iran‘s space activities. components and sub-systems can be checked and verified before launch. Iranian efforts to exploit space began under the Shah who tried to improve his country's scientific standing. In early 2008. And if during the countdown an anomaly is encountered. Think of how many times a Space Shuttle launches been delayed for one reason or another?. the United States as a "hollow superpower heighten the level of tension. Iran seeks to become a space power for similar reasons. Elleman 1/21/2011(Michael Elleman is co-author of “Iran's Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment. This would further legitimize Ahmadinejad's policies and rhetoric and generate greater regional and international fear regarding the regime's intentions . two-stage Safir spacelauncher. Kass. Last year. Unlike other Islamic countries with satellites the Iranian defense ministry plays a prominent role in This military component manages the Shahab ballistic missile program which Iran might modify into a space launch vehicle (SLV) with foreign support. with great fanfare. Space launcher and ballistic missiles are founded on similar technologies. the Simorgh. Iran‘s space activities must be closely monitored to avoid future surprises. Iran might reengineer the Shahab to carry future satellites and try to obtain significant political rewards from future satellite launches. The United States and Israel remain gravely concerned about Iranian efforts to gain more military power.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Internal Link – Duel-Use 3/4 An Iranian space program leads to satellite-guided Iranian Ballistic Missiles. Tehran unveiled a much larger satellite carrier rocket. The technologies used to launch satellites can also be used to develop ballistic missiles. Iran placed a small satellite into earth orbit using the domestically developed.In slightly different ways and to varying degrees of success China North Korea and Pakistan use a civil space program clandestinely to manufacture longer-range missiles to further safeguard national security. Successfully testing a launch vehicle would allow Iran to boast that it is a space power. not all of them can be addressed adequately when once the Simorgh is proven as a satellite carrier. the problem fixed and the process restarted. Ballistic missiles. 30 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . The Iranian space endeavor mimics a disturbing pattern other countries use clandestinely to advance their long. and with little advanced notification. In 1959 Teheran became a founding member of the United Nations' Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS). Still there are many fundamental differences between the two systems. Nonetheless. and the mission commander can wait for ideal weather before initiating the countdown. operating the system as a launcher. The United Nations' General Assembly requested that UNCOPUOS review international collaborative programs to exploit space for civil purposes serve as a forum for information exchanges and encourage the development and facilitate the advancement of national programs to study outer Iran has an ambitious space program. another two to five years of testing in the ballistic missile mode would be required. Iran's space program: The next genie in a bottle? Lexis) Teheran is advancing its space program to satisfy numerous civil and military objectives including manufacturing satellites to accurately guide its Shahab ballistic missiles. The Simorgh.usip. could in theory be converted into an intermediate-range missile capable of 4reaching most of Europe from Iranian territory. Iran might seek to develop a space program to improve national pride. regional objective and further destabilizing the region. like any other military system. whose maiden voyage of is larger launchers are almost certainly on the drawing boards of Iran‘s space agency. on the other hand. Iran‟s space program can easily be used as a cover to develop ballistic missiles. Statements from Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who declared his intention to "wipe Israel off the map" and dismissed shaping the space effort with possible contributions from the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). 9/7/2006 (Lee Kass is a defense contractor in McLean VA. These operational requirements must be validated through an extensive test program before a missile can be declared combat ready. but scheduled for February or March 2011.. And while some of the validation can be achieved within a civilian space program. All told. to be sure. and is making steady progress toward its officially stated goal of launching a man into space within a decade.

and Russian development in the 1950s and 1960s of the Atlas. which means "Observation" in Farsi." Jane's said. founded and run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. liquid-fuel Simorgh rocket to carry a 220-pound satellite into orbit at an altitude of 310 Iran sent aloft its first indigenously launched satellite. the multistage Safir-2 used in the Rasad launch is much smaller than a weapon capable of elite military organization that's in charge of Iran's ballistic missile program and the strategic missile command. said a 625-pound capsule carrying a monkey would be launched aboard a Kavoshgar-5 rocket between July 23 and Aug. experts are reported to have concluded Iran has accelerated its efforts to develop long-range missiles. That technology produces intercontinental ballistic missiles. June 20 (UPI) -put into orbit in two years. One U. director of Iran's Space Organization. Titan and R-7 ballistic missiles. by passing tough sanctions imposed by the U. 3. Many of the technological building blocks involved in the booster rockets like the Safir-2 are the same as those needed to develop long-range ballistic missiles. which oversaw the Rasad launch. But the 72-foot. Tehran is reported to have increased the military budget by more than 40 percent . Iran's state television reported that the June 16 launch thrust Rasad. The real importance of Iran's recent launch of its Rasad-1 satellite. "Tehran now has established its status as having the most advanced space. President Barack Obama acted wrongly by reducing Missile Defense Agency facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic against Iranian Safir-type missiles that could eventually have the capability to strike the United States directly. Hamid Fazeli. According to Western specialists. 23 this year to an altitude of 74 miles. 3 that year. the the military aspect of the Rasad launch and indeed Iran's entire space program. confirming its technical superiority over its Arab rivals. unveiled a capsule for a monkey. along with four prototype Iranian-built satellites Tehran plan to launch before March 2012. by around 2021. The successful launch "confirms that the Iranians have overcome the technological obstacles to launching a multistage missile. accessed 7/14/11) BEIRUT. In 2010. It was there on Feb.N. At that time. This was possible because of rising oil prices.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Internal Link – Duel-Use 4/4 Iran‟s space program can be used to manufacture ballistic missiles UPI 6/20/2011 (http://www. Lebanon. Iran unveiled plans for a four-engine. went into orbit 163 miles above the Earth.Rasad-1 was built at the Malek Ashtar University. analysis of the recent advances in Iran's missile technology said a successful Safir-2 mission "could raise concerns in the U. data-gathering craft into space. a process than can increase flight range considerably.S. apparently to fund the construction of more ballistic missiles. who has made the space program one of his government's priorities. 31 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . the second it's is the Safir booster rocket used to loft the 34-pound.On Feb. from $7 billion to $10 billion a year.upi. This was the pattern of early U. The satellite had been scheduled for launch in August 2010 and there was no explanation for the delay at a time when U.N. Communications Minister Reza Taqipour says these launches will be followed by orbital missions as a prelude to an Islamic manned space program. Security Council in June 2010 over Iran's contentious nuclear program. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. two turtles and a dozen worms into space aboard a 10-foot Kavoshgar-3 research rocket. a research and communications craft called Omid-1 atop a Safir rocket. This underlines carrying conventional or nuclear warheads. Iran announced plans to start sending research animals into space in 2011. The Rasad launch presumably took place at the Semnan launch site in the Great Salt Desert south of Tehran.S. 2009. initially using modified Shehab ballistic missiles as the booster rockets. Congress among Republicans who claim U." In 2010. missile and nuclear programs in the Muslim Middle East. These include the Shehab-3b and Sejjil-2 intermediate-range ballistic missiles capable to hitting the Persian Gulf Arab states and Israel." Jane's Intelligence Digest reported at the time.S. which is seen by the West and by Israel as an integral part of the drive to develop a long-range ballistic missile capability. The Islamic Republic thus joined the fewer than a dozen other countries capable of launching satellites into space. 26-ton Safir is a version of the Shehab-3 intermediate-range missile that currently forms the backbone of Iran's operational missile force. Tehran announced it sent a rocket carrying a mouse.

SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage ***IMPACTS*** 32 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .

including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload. "It has announced that it intends to triple its capacity to produce 20 percent enriched uranium.. Their collaboration on missile technology goes back to the Iran-Iraq war.msnbc.N. James Clapper. 7/14/11) Iran has conducted covert tests of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in addition to a 10-day program of public military maneuvers.N. highlighted North Korea‘s ballistic missile proliferation activities regarding Iran and hinted that this cooperation is bearing dangerous fruit. Foreign Secretary William Hague told the House of Commons that there had been secret experiments with nuclear-capable missiles. Iran has "been carrying out covert ballistic missiles tests and rocket launches. " Hague said. The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. Tehran‘s ballistic missile inventory. Hague also said Britain was uranium — at around 3.000 kilometers). and space programs — all run by the military. with a range of 1. buried by China. conducted at least three secret tests of medium-range ballistic missiles since October."We will maintain and continue to increase pressure on Iran to negotiate an agreement on their nuclear program. Hague also condemned Tehran over its support of the violent crackdown on anti-regime demonstrations in Syria. This newest UN report. Some Western officials claim Iran is accelerating its attempts to produce a nuclear weapon. partly because leaders have been shaken by protests against authoritarian regimes across the Middle East. 33 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . raised concerns about the secret tests in a posting on its website. while uranium enriched to around 90 percent purity can be used to develop a nuclear warhead. or provide other details. http://www. In fact. and one or two solid-fueled Sejil 2 missiles. Unfortunately. many of which are inherently capable of carrying a nuclear payload.5 percent — can be used to fuel a reactor to generate electricity.240 miles (2. including launches." said a Foreign Office spokesman. and its allies insist it is aimed at developing atomic weapons — a charge Iran rejects.S. In testimony earlier this year. has repeatedly importuned North Korea and Iran have a long history of military. director of national intelligence. it is making impressive strides on all fronts. believes that the covert missile tests show Iran's leaders are seeking to avoid scrutiny over the real extent of their weapons programs. During the tests. Diplomatic cables published through WikiLeaks show that the U./NATO bases. they only serve to undermine further Iran's claims that its nuclear program is entirely for civilian use.msn. Tehran‘s new two-stage solid-propellant missile may Iran is doing ballistic missile tests now Stringer. affirms U.S. but did not specify precisely when the tests had taken place." Hague said. They did not say if the tests were successful." Hague said. reach and sophistication of its ballistic missile forces.Both missiles are believed to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. comes to North Korean nuclear activities. concerns about Chinese willingness to look the other way when it Beijing to bar North Korean shipments through China. and on Tuesday fired 14 missiles in public tests. date accessed. Tehran continues to ―expand the scale. the U.S. yet China has taken no action. Britain alleged on Wednesday. These are enrichment levels far greater that is needed for peaceful nuclear energy. is largely based on North Korean missile designs. "Iran continues to connive in the suppression of legitimate protest in Syria and to suppress protests at home. on customary condition of anonymity in line with policy.. the report said.K. 6/29/2011 (David Stringer is LONDON — soon be able to reach Eastern Europe and U. the Iranian delegations have visited North Korea in the past to observe missile tests and exchange technology. Panel of Experts report leaked to the media last month reported that Iran launched a liquidfueled Shahab 3 missile.N. a writer for the Associated Press. experts said." he said.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Brink – Ballistic Missile Tech Improving Iran is improving Ballistic Missile technology Carafano and Graham 5/23/2011 (James Jay Carafano is director of The Heritage Foundation‟s Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies. Security Council resolution prohibits Iran from "any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. The U. the largest in the Middle East. An IAEA report last month listed "high-voltage firing and instrumentation for explosives testing over long distances and possibly underground" as one of seven "areas of concern" that Iran may be concerned over Tehran's decision to increase its capacity to enrich uranium to a higher level at the Fordo site near the holy city of Qom in central Iran. The group pointed out that a 2010 U. Enriching to 90 percent can be done much more easily from material enriched to 20 percent purity than from low-enriched material. economic and intelligence cooperation. where Owen Graham is research coordinator for national security and foreign Iran and the West remain in dispute over its nuclear program. ‖ Clapper said.S.heritage. enabling it to hold governments hostage simply by threatening to launch its missiles. "On the back of the recent IAEA report and the unanswered questions about its nuclear program. nuclear. http://www. However. Low-enriched conducting clandestine nuclear weapons work." Iran is currently displaying its military hardware in a series of war games in an apparent show of openness. Britain believes Tehran has Iran conducted secret ballistic missile tests in October and February. an arms control group. with a range of 560 miles (900 kilometers). amid an apparent escalation of its nuclear program and increased scrutiny from the International Atomic Energy Agency A U. Iran is investing heavily in ballistic missile.

The stimulus may come from a threat made by an existing nuclear weapon state. Tehran already supplies dangerous weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas. The Iranian case is a selective challenge to the legitimate rights of developing countries to develop peaceful uses of nuclear energy.S. and give terrorists WMD with which to attack the U. Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The result would be a growing risk that nuclear or radiological weapons will get in the hands of terrorists. a misguided scientist.. has warned that another 20 or 30 ‗virtual nuclear weapon states‘ have the capacity to develop nuclear weapons in a very short time. This would spell the end of nonproliferation . President of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. “What to expect from a nuclear Iran” Washington Times. or sudden access to nuclear weapons technology. some may decide that the NPT is too discriminatory and does not confer sufficient benefits and withdraw from it. http://washingtontimes.S.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Proliferation Bad – Global Proliferation Iran proliferation cascades and goes global McCoy. a change in leadership. a desire for national power and prestige. This could lead to bolder interference in Iraq and Afghanistan. who would not hesitate to use them against the U. Turkey. as North Korea has done. 1-29-‟11 (Ronald.S. security guarantees and seek their own deterrent capability. Iran's possession of a nuclear bomb would likely start a nuclear cascade across the Middle East . Should Iran opt to withdraw. A nuclear Iran would itself pose an unprecedented proliferation risk.kafkapizechust. the nuclear non-proliferation regime may be irretrievably damaged. Iranian leaders would enjoy a sense of invincibility. thus threatening the survival of moderate Arab governments. greater mischief in Lebanon and more aggressive support for Hamas and Hezbollah. our ability to control nuclear stockpiles and prevent the spread of nuclear materials to dangerous actors could collapse. If developing countries perceive the Iranian crisis as a new form of nuclear Dr Mohamed ElBaradei. as nations threatened by Iran question U. „9 (William. as Saudi Arabia. destroys the nonproliferation regime. Cohen. Armed with nuclear weapons. Former Secretary of Defense. and might share nuclear materials with radical extremists. This could lead to a nuclear free-for-all and a cascade of A nuclear Iran would be emboldened in its efforts to destabilize the Middle East and export its revolutionary ideology. December 17. Israel and other allies. “Iran‟s nuclear aspirations: A poisoned chalice” http://www. Egypt and others seek nuclear weapons to protect against Iranian aggression. 34 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Within a decade. Tehran also could incite Shia populations in the Gulf States. Iranian prolif causes a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. we could see the number of nuclear states grow dramatically. It represents another serious blow to the quid pro quo bargain embedded in the NPT regime. As more nations develop their own nuclear deterrent.

human rights and cultural and social tolerance are the norm. regardless of their religion or government structure. Their goal is to oppress other people. and the world against appeasing the Iranian regime. Iran is the world's chief sponsor of terrorism.S. However." It is possible to build a bipartisan.S.provided they see consistent. But it did. reporting on a 2008 meeting between King Abdullah and Petraeus. General David Petraeus that Iran was supporting extremist groups in Yemen. Those who have been skeptical of similar Western claims should heed the warnings of Arab leaders on Iran's sponsorship of terrorism. demonstrate that even Muslim leaders believe Iran is an aggressive and ongoing sponsor of terrorism. The vast majority of Americans want a world where political and economic freedom." According to one cable. diplomatic cables was despicable." And Kuwait's military intelligence chief told U." Egypt's Mubarak cautioned the U. rogue regimes become more aggressive when they acquire nuclear weapons. to attack Iran to put an end to its nuclear weapons program. Iran will be much worse than North Korea if it acquires such weapons. revealed that King Abdullah "told you to cut off the head of the snake. As North Korea demonstrates. http://www. "Ahmadinejad is Hitler. because "they are big.heritage. We also now know that Jordanian officials have called for the Iranian nuclear program to be stopped by any means necessary to reduce the threat of a weapons program. The threat can still be deterred. international strategy to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. 2.S." Crown Prince bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi warned the U.S. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak tells us that the Iranians are "sponsors of terrorism. 3.S. They will not give up those attempts unless they believe the costs of pursuing them outweigh the substantial leverage gained by acquiring weapons . and they understand that achieving that vision puts them in direct conflict with United States. and nothing will be accomplished by wishful thinking about the nature of the Iranian regime. King Abdullah "frequently exhorted the U." The fat liars" Saudi Saudi ambassador to Washington. there are movements and governments actively opposing enlightened international relations. 35 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Proliferation Bad – Nuclear Terrorism 1/2 Iran cannot be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. The leaked cables show it is not trusted by any of its neighbors. These forces are attempting to acquire weapons of mass destruction because they understand that such weapons empower them to accomplish their goals. And officials in the United Arab Emirates and Egypt have referred to the Iranian regime as "evil. common-sense and bipartisan leadership from the United States. 4." and an "existential threat. to be wary of Iranian leaders as negotiating partners. diplomat: "The bottom line is that they (the Iranians) cannot be The WikiLeaks release of U. even declaring. must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons capability and cannot be trusted. but the world is running out of time. King Abdullah told a U. already support multiple terrorist organizations. Most nations can and should be viewed as partners in advancing these goals -. Talent 2/14/2011 (Jim Talent is a Distinguished Fellow at The Heritage Foundation. at least. American leaders must discard their preconceptions and develop and implement a strategy that confronts reality: 1.S.

Israeli leaders and Zionist supporters have. Because of the Russian "dead hand" system. if not tens of thousands. p 683-693. 36 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Afterwards. for years to come. Russia would retaliate.4 In Section 1.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Proliferation Bad – Nuclear Terrorism 2/2 Nuclear terrorism causes global nuclear escalation – national retaliation goes global Morgan. “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race” Futures. Carol Moore asks the question "Is Nuclear War Inevitable??" [10]. as thousands. whether from terrorists or a nation state. all that militant terrorists would have to do is get their hands on one small nuclear bomb and explode it on either Moscow or Israel. In that case. they've figured out that the best way to escalate these tensions into nuclear war is to set off a nuclear exchange . would then retaliate against Russia. No doubt. Vol 41 Issue 10. and the U.S. would rain upon most of the major cities in the Northern Hemisphere. As Moore points out. Furthermore. Foreign Studies Prof at Hankuk University. Moore points out know about the nuclear tensions between powerful countries. bringing death or else radiation disease that would be genetically transmitted to future generations in a nuclear winter that could last as long as a 100 years. "where regional nuclear commanders would be given full powers should Moscow be destroyed. the Israeli Samson option would also include attacks on Russia and even "anti-Semitic" European cities [10]. of nuclear warheads. it would retaliate with the suicidal "Samson option" against all major Muslim cities in the Middle East. ScienceDirect) what most terrorists obviously already In a remarkable website on nuclear war. many of them much more powerful than those used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. taking a savage toll upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well." it is likely that any attack would be blamed on the United States " [10]. stated for years that if Israel were to suffer a nuclear attack. of course. December. massive radioactive clouds would drift throughout the Earth in the nuclear fallout. likewise. „9 (Dennis Ray. China would probably be involved as well.

domination of the seas and skies in any military confrontation drives Iran into a disproportionate reliance on threatening to use missiles to level the odds. Fortunately. Moreover.armscontrol. hard for an enemy to locate and attack prior to launch.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Proliferation Bad – Regional Instability Status quo missile capabilities are not threatening – nuclearizing long-race missiles causes regional instability and pre-emptive war Arms Control Association. the practical utility of Iranian missiles is primarily limited at present to being an instrument of intimidation or terror when targeted against cities. difficult to intercept in Missiles Are the Measure Missiles are the premier weapon of the Islamic Republic of Iran. which can reach targets not only in neighboring states. 37 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . given the heavy concentrations of U. Anti-shipping cruise missiles – along with mines – provide one of Iran‘s most credible deterrent threats. given that Iran‘s ballistic missiles lack accuracy against point targets and Iran‘s cruise missiles are not suited to land-attack. occupy an iconic place in the power pantheon – they are fast to employ. Iran could gain the ability to destroy specific targets. Such a disruption.S. even Iran‘s shorter-range missiles can easily and quickly put the lives of U. [1] U .S. assessment. would have incalculable effects on the international economy.S. 7-12-‟11 (“Iranian Missile Messages: Reading Between the Lines of "Great Prophet 6"” http://www.‖ according to a recent official U. Tehran would also be aware that its use of nuclear weapons would provoke retaliation that could result in its annihilation as a nation – a risk disproportionate to any conceivable gain.S. even short-term. Iranian missile forces loom large in relative significance because of inadequacies in Iran‘s air and ground forces. By acquiring nuclear warheads for its medium-range ballistic missiles. but also in Israel. soldiers at risk. Even so. Moreover. missile defenses are likely to spur rather than retard Iranian efforts to improve their missiles. troops in the region. The deployments of missile defenses in Israel and the Persian Gulf are unlikely to give the defenders confidence that nuclear devastation would be averted in the event of an actual Iranian nuclear missile attack. which carries a third of all the world's seaborne traded oil. These forces ―are sufficient to deter or defend against conventional threats from Iran‘s weaker neighbors…but lack the air power and logistical ability to project power much beyond Iran‘s borders or to confront regional powers such as Turkey or Israel. in particular. because they enable Tehran to effectively exploit its geographical position by threatening to interrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. and can potentially serve as a vehicle for delivering nuclear weapons to targets far from the country‘s border. Iran‘s ballistic missiles. Iran already has medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) in its arsenal.

ballistic missile defense program .il/journal/2006/issue3/jv10no3a2. The defense ministry and possibly the IRGC play a more prominent role in the country‘s space program. which shares a border with Iran. although MDA spokesman Rick Lehner told me at the time that the region would be a ―good location for a small X-band radar to provide tracking and discrimination of missiles launched from Iran. ―The Xband radar is a single directional. The event will also increase pressure on the European Union states of United Kingdom.‖ In addition.wired. Iranian motivations for becoming a space power. ―We now have proven capabilities to intercept these ballistic missiles with land-and-sea-based interceptors supported by much-improved sensors. which has seen eight successful flight tests since 2007. particularly in our ability to counter short-and-medium-range missiles.S. These capabilities offer a variety of options to detect. 38 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . behavior. international unease. has received U. the new plan might include deploying an Xband radar to the Caucasus — the region sandwiched between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea — to keep an eye out for missile launches from Iran. „6 (Lee.‖ he said. is not new. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates offered the new rationale. the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) published a fact sheet that said mobile sensors for ballistic missile defense might be placed in an unnamed country in the Caucasus. The international community will likely react to a future Iranian SLV launch in a similar manner to North Korea‘s August 1998 failed attempt to place a satellite into orbit using a reengineered ballistic missile. Iran‟s SLV launch will generate greater European support for the U.S. the Iranian space effort is a growing source of International Affairs. and cooperation with countries that cloak their long-range ballistic missile efforts behind a civil space project. Bush‘s plan to park missile-defense interceptors in Poland and place an X-band radar in the Czech Republic. The agency subsequently scrubbed the fact sheet to remove any mention of possible locales. „9 (Nathan.‖ he said. funding for the construction of radar installations. President Barack Obama yesterday announced that he would scrap George W. which was vehemently opposed to the Bush administration‘s plan to place assets in Eastern Europe. offer a much more flexible option than a fixed site. September 18. The idea of stationing an X-band radar in the Caucasus. Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. And it will be very clear that it is pointing south towards Iran. Intriguingly. This allows us to deploy a distributive sensor network rather than a single fixed site. Germany. September. Gates noted the Navy‘s considerable test success with the missile-shooting Standard Missile-3 (pictured here). like the kind slated for the Czech Republic. Sea-based interceptors. it points in a single direction.S. Missile Shield Might Look Like” http://www. Danger Room. Back in 2006. The United States has close military ties with Georgia . Defense Contractor.html) In contrast. and France to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue before the IRGC can threaten Europe with a miniaturized nuclear warhead onboard a modified missile. North Korea‘s Taepo-dong 1 launch was a key factor that reinvigorated efforts within the United States to develop a ballistic missile defense shield. we have made great strides with missile defense. track and shoot down enemy Details are now emerging on the Obama administration‘s plans to revamp missile defense to better counter the emerging Iranian missile threat.‖ Iranian missile advancements through space prompt US missile defense in Europe Kass. raises disturbing questions about this nation‘s intentions in space.idc. Speaking yesterday to reporters. when you put it down. however.‖ It‘s easy to speculate about which countries in the region could potentially host an X-band radar. Their involvement. And neighboring Azerbaijan. enabling greater survivability and adaptability. ―In other words. “Iran‟s Space Program: The Next Genie In A Bottle?” Middle East Review of http://meria. James Cartwright said stationing a radar in the he said. ―Over the last few years. “What a Revamped U.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Proliferation Bad – Europe NMD Iranian ballistic missile threat causes US missile defense system in Europe Caucasus might reassure Russia.

Waging war against satellites has been a point of contention in recent years among some scientists and policymakers who cringe at the thought of militarizing space and others who don't see anything wrong with defending the satellites that have become a cornerstone of U. And if the need should arise.against the United States or an ally would likely take some steps to blind the constellation of satellites that serve as the United States' watchful eyes and ears .. the development of defensive measures for satellites would boost the cost of the military's space program. It does. a retired Air force general and current vice president of the defense consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton. it is considered within the realm of possibility to detonate a missile in the general area of a crucial satellite and either disable it or push it out of position so that the only thing the controllers on the ground see is a nice view of deep space.S. We don't want to assume the environment where we operate is explosion agreed. troops routinely use to monitor enemy forces on the ground and handle the steady flow of communications between units in the field and commanders who are sometimes thousands of miles away. Lord knocking an incoming missile off course. The same theory of a shove in space is one of the earliest ideas behind the concept of missile defense . „4 (November 19. 11. possibly at the expense of other weapons programs or even the fledgling missile defense system that was spawned by President Reagan's much-maligned Star Wars program and given new life by the current Bush administration. however. Other countries have military and intelligence-gathering satellites in orbit. And if you take space away from us. The audience of Air Force personnel and representatives of the big defense contractors that produce the futuristic birds were regaled with war stories from battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan that generally involved the military's various eyes in the sky bringing Pentagon tacticians and far-off command-and-control into the action in real time. The United States has made great strides in establishing a virtual military monopoly on the final frontier You can't go to war and win without (utilizing) space. The American military's technical prowess has given it a dominance in space-based systems. 39 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . raise the urgency of protecting the satellites that are the best of the United States' limited means of preventing a surprise attack that could pale Pearl Harbor and Sept.html) Secretary of State Colin Alter US Space Strategy?” Powell's blockbuster allegation that Iran's mullahs were on the verge of fielding nuclear missiles was a grave warning sign that the days of the United States' military's virtual monopoly on outer space could be numbered. however the United States has seemingly been in a league of its own in its utilization of space for tactical purposes. we have to take away those tempting targets. The planners and analysts who look at space from the military point of view don't have to make much of a leap to conclude that an enemy planning a nuclear first strike . At the same time.spacewar.or even a conventional attack .S. satellites would likely provide the first warning that an enemy missile was about to be launched. We have to worry about protecting those satellites. the rightfully proud head of Space Command. The possibility that a Muslim theocracy such as Iran could soon join North Korea as the second of President Bush's Axis of Evil nations to crash the once-exclusive nuclear club doesn't necessarily mean that the world is a step closer to doomsday. The advantage of good intelligence allows U. Losing the advantage in space. forces to escape ambushes and locate massing enemy forces that can be struck by air or artillery before they reach their intended target. which leads to the logical likelihood that its enemies could look for ways to attack and destroy the satellites that U. said Gen.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Proliferation Bad – Turns Case (US Space Supremacy) Iranian nuclearization turns US space supremacy Space War. military capabilities. would result in the United States losing an advantage on the ground. people will the role the dominance of space has played in the current conflict in Iraq.. Lance Lord. “Analysis: Can Iran http://www. While it currently might not be possible to physically shoot down a satellite in orbit far above Earth. Moorman and other speakers attending an Air Force Association conference on space in Beverly Hills Friday were bullish on die. We need to make sure that we maintain our advantage.S. Lord and other speakers Our greatest threat is complacency and taking for granted our place in space.. since the Air Force Space Command was established 50 years ago in the heyday of the Cold War. said Thomas Moorman. We are getting so dependent on them (satellites) that we are creating a target.

or intercontinental ballistic missiles ( ICBMs). China. Khan‘s.‖[18] If it chooses to develop an ICBM missile capability. the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) illustrated Iran‘s capability to do just that – speed up the development of increasingly sophisticated missile technology.[21] IISS explains that between May 2005 and November 2007. deputy national intelligence director Thomas Fingar noted Iran‘s display of a 1100 mile range missile (Ghadr-1) during a military parade and Iranian claims of a new 1250 mile range missile (Ashura).org/nuclear-program/potential-deliverysystems-irans-nuclear-program) Long-range ballistic missiles. based on North Korea‘s Taepodong. Iran needs to develop or acquire: multi-stage missile technology. Recent reports claim that the 3500 mile range Shahab-6. Therefore. multi-stage Sejjil missile uses solid fuel.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: Ballistic Missile Capabilities Now Iran doesn‟t have ICBM capabilities now Zarif. In 2008. a more powerful propulsion system.[20] In a February 2009 report.400 miles. or a network similar to A. IISS argues that the upgrade suggests that Iran received technical assistance and export-controlled hardware from foreign sources. however. previously abandoned or even created the design for a Shahab-6 ICBM. therefore.[27] As Stephen Hildreth of the Congressional Research Service (CRS) notes. pointing out the Sejjil‘s likeness to the Ashura. ― non-official public sources reflect little technical or program consensus regarding an Iranian ICBM program. Iran appeared to make the transition from producing a two-ton missile motor to a ten-ton missile motor. is under development.[17] Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) director Lowell Jacoby assessed in 2005 that ―Iran will have the technical capability to develop an ICBM by 2015 .irantracker.‖[28] 40 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .[23] Supposedly. the Iranian defense minister declared that Iran tested a new 1. are less susceptible to missile defense intercept.S. unlike the liquid-fueled Shahab. Speculative reports regarding Iran‘s pursuit of longer range IRBMs and ICBMs have drawn attention in recent years.200 mile-range missile – the Sejjil.[25] Speculation periodically surfaces regarding an Iranian ICBM. Weapons expert Duncan Lennox questioned the claim that the missile was new. U. „9 (Maseh. it is unclear if Iran actively pursues. and advanced missile guidance systems. possess a range of at least 3.[26] Iran denies it has plans to pursue an ICBM capability.Q. Iran would need to overcome various technical limitations. “Potential Delivery Systems for Iran's Nuclear Program” http://www. April 9. In particular.[24] The significance of that distinction lies in that solid fuel missiles launch quicker than liquid fuel missiles and. the dual-engine. Iran‘s relatively quick upgrade from a small motor to a larger one is significant because the process typically has a steep learning curve and requires hardware on export-control lists.[22] In November of 2008. a reentry vehicle able to withstand higher velocities and temperatures.[19] Iran could expedite the development of an ICBM if it chose to acquire technologies— such as a multi-stage capability—from foreign suppliers like Russia. Iran Leader at AEI Critical Threats. commonly referring to a Shahab6.

In all of Africa there are only two. "We can't trust one with three." It is not too late to prove them wrong. and political disputes continue unresolved. with France. Sarkozy has a point: No one can deny Arab states access to nuclear technology. not industrial. Russia and the regional states to effectively contain the Iranian program. these countries that control over one-fourth of the world's oil supplies are investing in nuclear power programs. Jordan announced that it. with the first beginning later this year. Europe. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France signed a nuclear cooperation deal with Libya and agreed to help the United Arab Emirates launch its own civilian nuclear program. . ethnic. But is this really about meeting demands for electric power and desalinization plants? There is only one nuclear power reactor in the entire Middle East —the one under construction in Busher. Saudi Arabia and the five other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain. If the existing territorial. But its program is already sending nuclear ripples through the Middle East. two of Iran's main rivals. this is a recipe for nuclear war. it "called on the Arab states to expand the use of peaceful nuclear technology in all domains serving continuous development. Finally. Kuwait. Oman. Not to be outdone. it means that engaging with Tehran is even more crucial to halt not only the Iranian nuclear Indicating that this could be just the beginning of a major sale and supply effort. The race to match Iran's capabilities has begun. Qatar. the countries with nuclear technology to sell have a moral and strategic obligation to ensure that their business does not result in the Middle East going from a region with one nuclear weapon state . . Turkey will build three new reactors. „7 (Joseph. but those that will soon start to materialize around it. and the United States also jockeying for nuclear sales to this oil state. and the United Arab Emirates) at the end of 2006 "commissioned a joint study on the use of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. perceived in the region as evidence of Iran's growing clout. but confide similar sentiments in private conversations. says the country will build four power reactors. the Arab League has provided an overall umbrella for these initiatives when. nuclear power industry and a desire to counter global warming. especially as they are acquiring it under existing international rules and agreeing to the inspection of International Atomic Energy Agency officials. Gamal Mubarak. NonProlif Director at Carnegie." they are saying. .S. Other leaders are not as frank in public. “The Middle East‟s Nuclear Surge” http://www. While U. This means that nuclear technology states must be just as energetic in promoting the resolution of these conflicts as they are in promoting their products. son of the current Egyptian president and his likely successor. Both have flirted with nuclear weapons programs in the past and both have announced ambitious plans for the construction of new power reactors. Here is where the nuclear surge currently stands. King Abdullah met Canada's prime minister in July and discussed the purchase of heavy water Candu reactors. King Adbdullah of Jordan admitted as much in a January 2007 interview when he said: "The rules have changed on the nuclear subject throughout the whole region. August 21. or five nuclear nations. wants nuclear power. after multiple energy crises over the 60 years of the nuclear age. Finally. But 41 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .Israel . as do several other states. are in the lead.americanprogress. Iran. Egypt and Turkey. This is not about energy. at the end of its summit meeting in March. "You are failing to contain Iran and we need to prepare.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: Iran Can‟t Nuclearize Even the perception of an Iranian bomb vastly increases the risk of a regional nuclear war Cirincione. South Korea. Sarkozy declared that the West should trust Arab states with nuclear technology. four. China. After this summer everybody's going for nuclear programs.) Suddenly. too. Morocco wants assistance from the atomic energy agency to acquire nuclear technology and in March sponsored an international conference on Physics and Technology of Nuclear Reactors. officials were reaching a new nuclear agreement with India last month. Instead of seeing this nuclear surge as a new market. it is a nuclear hedge against Iran." Perhaps these states are truly motivated to join the "nuclear renaissance" promoted by the the main message to the West from these moderate Arab and Muslim leaders is political. both in South Africa. with the first to be completed within the next 10 years. It means building the unity of the United States." Algeria and Russia quickly signed an agreement on nuclear development in January 2007. This unprecedented demand for nuclear programs is all the more disturbing paired with the unseemly rush of nuclear salesman eager to supply the coveted technology ." He was referring to the war in Lebanon last year between Israel and Hezbollah.html) Iran is still probably five to 10 years away from gaining the ability to make nuclear fuel or nuclear bombs.Almost a dozen Muslim nations have declared their interest in nuclear energy programs in the past year. (Israel has a research reactor near Dimona.

Some activities at the Isfahan uranium conversion and fuel manufacturing facilities contravene Iran's international obligations. which is more challenging than the gun-type design used in the Hiroshima bomb and later developed by apartheid-era South Africa. nor on its later announcement that it was developing a new type of centrifuge.000 centrifuges. (A rare optimistic note is that Iran's total of 8. In addition. 1. Iran is not responding to information requests about the Fordow plant and has yet to tell the IAEA anything about ten new centrifuge plants. Under a section titled "Possible Military Dimensions. Nuclear devices for missiles must also be more durable than those dropped from aircraft because they need to cope with the huge acceleration and high reentry temperatures associated with rocket launches. Iran is enriching with more than 5. days before it was revealed by U. if processed into higher proportions of the fissile isotope U-235. Director of Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute." the IAEA report refers to "new information recently received "as well as concerns "about the possible existence in Iran. a cause for concern because anything beyond is defined as highly enriched uranium (HEU).000 centrifuges is slightly less than the total at the time of the last report. Iran has not suspended its uranium enrichment activities at several facilities. Sites for five of these plants have already been chosen. Indeed.) Iran has now produced more than 3. “New Evidence of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions” http://www." This disturbing conclusion reinforces previous evidence that Iran is working hard to design a nuclear weapon small enough to fit on top of a missile less than three feet in diameter. 3-2-‟11 (Simon. and at an enrichment plant called Fordow. Although Iran has stated that it is not working on reprocessing -. and European surveillance. which are under IAEA safeguards. and construction will begin on one of them before the Iranian new year (March 20) or shortly afterward.washingtoninstitute. The regime has also ignored IAEA requests about additional locations related to the manufacture of centrifuges and research and development on enrichment. It also suggests that Iran intends to design an implosion-type device. near the holy city of Qom..S.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: No Nuclear Material 1/2 Iran expanding weapons-capable uranium production Hendersen.which the IAEA confirmed. Tehran admitted the existence of the latter facility in 2009. 42 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Iran is also working on two new centrifuge designs that might be more efficient than its problematic IR-1 centrifuge.600 kilograms of low-enriched uranium.of activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile. enrichment activities have been expanded at both a pilot plant and the main plant at Natanz. suggesting breakdowns remain a problem.. Iran continues to enrich some of this to a higher (20 percent) proportion of U-235.php?CID=3317) The February 25 report noted the following: Contrary to Security Council resolutions. but only in the facilities it was permitted to inspect --the regime continues to work on heavy-water projects in violation of Security Council resolutions. Indeed.000 more than three months ago. Iran has provided no further information regarding its claim last year that it possessed laser enrichment technology. this amount could theoretically be enough for several atomic

5 percent enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. there would surely be no NATO bombing of his military today. The number of centrifuges is up from 3.000 centrifuges at Natanz and accumulated more than enough‖ 3.washingtoninstitute. known as IR-4 and IR-2M. 4-15-‟11 (John. Defense Intelligence Agency.N. Given Tehran's relations with Pyongyang. “Iranian Winter Could Chill the Arab Spring” Wall Street Journal) Inside Iran. Had he made seven years of progress toward deliverable nuclear weapons. 3-10-‟11 (Tony. Burgess says in a statement prepared for the Senate Armed Services Committee. 43 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . if it further enriches and processes the material to higher levels. United Nations sanctions ―are not stopping Iran‘s drive to enrich uranium‖ for potential nuclear weapons. 3-2-‟11 (Simon. Iran could obtain access to advanced P-2 centrifuges. could be beyond the regime's technical skills. Pakistan has used this type of centrifuge to develop enough HEU for as many as a hundred atomic bombs. Security Council resolutions and sanctions against a determined adversary.S. influence in general. We would therefore see a region substantially more in Iran‘s thrall and far more unstable and dangerous for Washington and its allies. “New Evidence of Iran's http://www. Egypt.php?CID=3317) Nuclear Ambitions” Much of the confidence that Iran remains unable to make a nuclear device rests on the knowledge that its IR-1 centrifuge has never been successfully used to make the required 90 percent HEU needed for a deliverable atomic bomb. “Iran Continues its `Drive to Enrich Uranium.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: No Nuclear Material 2/2 Iran proliferation will be successful now – causes cascading Middle East arms race and terrorism Bolton. Senior Fellow AEI.S. according to the U. Thus Iran‘s weapons program proceeds full steam ahead.' Defense Agency's Chief Says” http://www. America‘s failure to stop Iran‘s nuclear ambitions—which is certainly how it would be perceived worldwide—would be a substantial blow to U. according to U. which have been confirmed by Iranian officials—that the regime has the capability to mass-produce critical components for centrifuges used to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels. we now have confirmation—thanks to disclosures this month by an Iranian opposition group. and would wonder what they have to says Army Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess. Bloomberg. Turkey and perhaps others to seek their own deliverable nuclear weapons. director of the DIA. which were revealed to be operating in North Korea last year. however.S. Sanctions haven‘t slowed operation of Iran‘s heavy water nuclear reactor or the installation at its Natanz facility of more centrifuges that could enrich uranium to weaponsgrade levels. but he is now undoubtedly cursing his timidity.000 in late 2007. Terrorists and their state sponsors would see Iran‘s unchallenged role as terrorism‘s leading state sponsor and central banker. An Iranian nuclear capability would undoubtedly cause Saudi Arabia. Even if Iran doesn‟t have the nuclear know-how they‟ll get it from North Korea Hendersen. Iran's attempts to develop two new centrifuge types. That news proves again the inefficacy of Fissile material for nuclear warheads requires 90 percent enriched uranium. Burgess says. intelligence estimates.html) Iran has produced ―more than enough‖ low-enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon if it were to further enrich and process the material for bomb use. Moammar Gadhafi surrendered his nuclear weapons program in 2003-04 because he feared becoming the next Saddam Hussein. ―Iran has installed nearly 9. Iran has enough uranium to begin enrichment which only emphasizes to would-be proliferators that persistence pays. Centrifuges are machines that can enrich uranium for use in nuclear power plants or to fuel nuclear weapons. Director of Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute. Moreover.

but not in the way he would have liked. It is simply defeatism dressed up as realpolitik. 44 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . He will have gotten it. And the possible negative repercussions of attempting to exploit this confluence of interests appear to pale in comparison to those that will follow Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons. The tragedy of Obamaism is painfully obvious when one considers that. but only if they are prepared to move beyond the idea that the United States must take the lead in all such crises. The truth is that even a cursory look at the big picture reveals a strong majority of nations whose interests stand to be damaged by the emergence of a hegemonic Iranian theocracy. If the Iranian nuclear program is successfully for The New Ledger)( The point of all this is not to engage in hypothetical scenarios or wishful fantasies.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: Iran Proliferation Inevitable A nuclear Iran is not inevitable Benjamin Kerstein 06/08/10 (Kerstein is Senior Writer http://newledger. a nuclear Iran is avoidable only if concerted opposition to it is undertaken without the United States. It is simply to emphasize that the emergence of a nuclear Iran is not inevitable. this fact can be turned to the advantage of all these nations. as long as Obama is president. it will only be because Barack Obama should have been more careful in wishing for a post-American world. With a little creative diplomacy. the basic concept behind Obama‘s foreign policy on Iran – that there is nothing we can do about it and we might as well resign ourselves to the inevitable and make the best of it – is not merely a self-fulfilling prophecy but also simply untrue. That is. And this is perhaps the saddest aspect of the entire situation.

Moscow still didn't use them against us. best exemplified by Kenneth Waltz's thinking. there is the problem of terrorist theft. Proliferation fatalism and deterrence optimism interact in a particularly diabolical manner. the rare moments when they were not monolithic were some of the most dangerous periods in recent history. were monolithic governments through most of the Cold War. as in the past. Nuclear weapons are horribly destructive." so they misled then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif into approving an operation which sent Pakistani soldiers disguised as Mujahedeen guerrillas into Indian controlled Kashmir near the town of Kargil in the winter of 1998. the more we think it inevitable that Iran is going to acquire nuclear weapons. the less we are willing to take the necessary diplomatic and strategic steps that could potentially stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Many policymakers and scholars are fatalists in thinking that there is nothing we can do. All three of these problems occurred when Pakistan got nuclear weapons. Instead of looking at the Cold War with nostalgia and projecting its legacy to assess the meaning of potential nuclear weapons in Iran. And third. maybe it won't matter. any statesmen in any state should be strongly influenced by the fear that his or her cities could be destroyed by an adversary. Vol 60 No 2. In Pakistan decisionmaking is not centrally controlled. Indeed. He refers to the People's Republic of China. and. Deterrence worked. 45 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . When Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons there were many inside its military who said. „7 (Scott. the problem of potential loose controls and sales of nuclear weapons to terrorists. And yet. The first is often called the stability-instability paradox: a situation of stability between two countries who both have nuclear weapons that can lead one country to think that it can be more aggressive conventionally because it is protected from a nuclear retaliation by its nuclear shield. I think diplomacy could still work in Iran and a military attack would not be a wise move today. Deterrence worked. China and the Soviet Union. Proquest) Thank you for this invitation. We fail currently to do that in our thinking about Iran." And the more we bolster our belief that it won't matter. Second. To understand in which situations nuclear weapons are likely to produce successful deterrence and in which situations they are less likely to. short of using military force. for now. let us look instead at the more recent history of a state in Iran's neighborhood: Pakistan. we need to open the black box of decisionmaking inside states to look at who controls and manages the actual nuclear weapons or devices that are being built. Three of the dangers that can occur in theory when a new nuclear state emerges really did occur. There is a creeping fatalism occurring in the American debate about this subject. normal organizations. "This our chance to do something about Kashmir. to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. First is the danger of nuclear weapons promoting aggression of the state which holds them-that is. I'd like to focus my brief remarks on why we should really worry about nuclear weapons in the hands of the Iranian regime. "Well. as opposed to theory. At the end of the Cold War when the Soviet Union collapsed and during China's Red Guard Cultural Revolution. in theory. PolSci Prof at Stanford. normal human beings inside imperfect. But. But in reality. saying we didn't want them to get nuclear weapons-we even thought of preventive war-but the result wasn't so bad. nuclear weapons are not controlled by states. acquiring the protection of a nuclear shield which will enable the state to be more aggressive in a conventional manner. there were serious threats to the safety and control over their respective nuclear weapons. saying that the United States didn't want the Soviet Union to acquire nuclear weapons. Let me start by noting that today. in Pakistan. the more we are tempted-through wishful thinking-to say. “A Nuclear Iran: Promoting Stability or Courting Disaster” Journal of International Affairs. and in spades. And. these two states. Kenneth Waltz refers back to the Cold War. as it was in the Soviet Union during the Cold War. And that fatalism is often coupled with deterrence optimism. when it did. They are not controlled by statesmen.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: Iran Proliferation Good (Waltz) 1/3 Waltz is wrong Sagan. They are managed by imperfect.

we have a good insight from Professor Waltz: The United States would be more reluctant to attack Iran if it had nuclear weapons. insiders and terrorist groups could potentially seize them."1 Such an operation would reduce the vulnerability of an Indian attack but would certainly increase the likelihood that AlQaeda. thinking it was a CIA ploy. He sold similar items to North Korea. On the other hand. Finally. so terrorists are unable to seize them. The Iranians. According to the Washington Post. the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency. Here we must ask: Who controls the weapons and materials? ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ 46 . proposed the following idea to address the vulnerability of its nuclear weapons to an Indian attack: " Let's hide them in Afghanistan-the Indians will never be able to attack them there. But other actors inside these states may not have similar incentives. It took a brave (and one of the last) act of Pakistani civilian Prime Minister Sharif to order the disguised Pakistani forces in Indian-held Kashmir to pull back. It's possible that these factions in Iran will actually increase rather than decrease attacks by Iranian agents in Iraq against American forces to force our hand. But in a crisis or a conventional war they have every incentive to take those nuclear weapons to the countryside. began to sell bomb design and centrifuge technology. Using the Pakistan analogy instead of the Cold War analogy. and indeed I do believe that's why Iran is so interested. the possibility that individual countries would be more aggressive with nuclear capability. to attack military bases in the region. we have the possibility that various Iranians-especially those in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-may feel that it is safer for them to probe-to attack Americans in Iraq. The second problem-terrorist theft. This problem can be best illustrated by an incident during the 1999 Kargil crisis. if they do develop nuclear weapons. the Taliban or another jihadi group could seize the weapons. however. will it behave more aggressively in the Middle East? On the one hand. are dispersing those sites in the countryside . may have the incentive to do so. the Pakistani military reportedly began to ready its missiles for nuclear strikes. But I do think there are some factions in Iran who wouldn't mind a potential attack from the United States because it would increase support for the regime. Pakistan creates this invulnerability by putting its nuclear weapons under lock and key in Pakistani military bases. But such measures will increase the likelihood that there won't be central control over their nuclear program." an abstract entity called the state. the question of ambiguous control. Therefore it is not at all clear what might be the final outcome. A. Professor Waltz argues that we do not need to wonder whether new nuclear states will take good care of the nuclear weapons-they have every incentive to do so. Nuclear weapons created that particular problem and sparked the Kargil war. Kahn nuclear network in Pakistan. selling them centrifuges and other technologies. and he offered them to Iraq in 1991. in trying to reduce the likelihood of an attack against their nuclear development sites. Look at the history of the A. And yet the countryside is exactly where they are more vulnerable to terrorist seizure. where they can be hidden and would be less vulnerable to an attack. to support terrorist attacks elsewhere. officers within Pakistan's intelligence agency. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons. I don't believe the Bush administration wants to attack. "They. More probing attacks? More provocation? Indeed. acting in his own interest and greed. The third problem is the loss of control and the potential that someone inside a nuclear state could give nuclear weapons to another non-nuclear state. though Saddam Hussein turned down the offer.Q. they must be invulnerable to a first strike from an adversary to allow for the possibility of retaliation. The second problem is the vulnerability-invulnerability paradox: For nuclear weapons to have a deterrent effect. the effects of a nuclear Iran are correctly seen as very dangerous.Q. He sold the actual centrifuges and bomb design to Libya. this is the worry with regard to the Iran crisis today. and increase the likelihood that. Khan helped initiate the Iranian nuclear program in 1987. a senior scientist.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage When the Indians threatened to retaliate. During times of peace. With help from others. the stability-instability paradox-that is. First.

And it is not the professional Iranian military but the Revolutionary Guard Corps guarding the development sites whose own financial units have often been those used to purchase different parts of the program . As one Indian military officer said. It seems to me that the optimists are the realists and the pessimists are the ones who are off in some ill-defined hypothesized world. but instead by religious zealots for whom physical survival is not the prime goal? 47 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Pessimists deal with hypothetical disasters that have never occurred. that's not very dangerous. oriented toward their material interests. but saying that Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons is dangerous becuase it produces a problem of proliferation elsewhere is like telling your kid. and of course conflicts can and will occur. because Kenneth Waltz says loudly and often what Jacques Chirac was only willing to say briefly and in what he claimed afterward was an off-the-record moment of rare French candor. "I would say what is dangerous about this situation is not the fact of having a nuclear bomb. how do you see those parallels or lessons differently? What happened in Kargil was a game of chicken. "Don't take heroin. deal with the world as it has been for more than fifty years. In short. To have your nuclear guardians and your terrorist supporter organizations be one and the same is a recipe for disaster.SCFI 2011 Iran Disadvantage Silent Nihilists They don't yet have weapons in Iran. maybe a second one a little later. all disasters are things that have never occurred until the first time they occur. The government may become emboldened. well. But they will be contained as they always were. Nuclear optimists. Your precedent from the Cold War-the stability of the U. Richard Betts: Yes.S. We should be worried about President Chirac. and the weapons will be in danger of being stolen or sold to others. These are the same individuals running the arms supply operations to terrorist organizations that Iran supports. But what is very dangerous is the effects on proliferation.-Soviet competition-involved fairly stable. secular regimes. but Ken. "We found. since Scott emphasized the lessons that can be drawn from the case of Pakistan. How can you be sure we weren't simply lucky in that case and that in another Kargil instance that slippery slope would go to the lengths you're confident won't happen? Kenneth Waltz: In a world in which countries had only conventional weapons. They each knew there was a limit to how far they could go." Iran getting nuclear weapons will be dangerous enough. A number of Indians and Pakistanis think that what prevented the Kargil conflict from becoming the fourth war between the two countries was that each had nuclear weapons and knew the other had them as well." It lies where there are vital interests at stake. Richard Betts: All perfectly clear! Ken. because it could lead to stronger drugs. proliferation is a problem. but they are working to get them. Of course skirmishes take place. a slippery slope upon which it isn't clear which side has the incentive to be the first to stop. As reported by the New York Times. we will face a very different kind of nuclear dynamic and danger than we ever faced during the Cold War. that slippery slope would indeed lead to a conventional war. It is very useful to have this debate. Chirac said. and organizations that purport to manage nuclear weapons in Iran will be weak. Is it really a flight of fancy to worry about those regimes that possess nuclear weapons and are not governed by material interests and physical survival. like me. One. as we expected."2 Well. that the trigger for war does not lie on the Kashmir frontier.

A reasonable high-altitude constellation would place about six weapons in orbit for each target to achieve response times or two to three hours from initiation of the attack to destruction of the target. these must be large enough to survive reentry through the earth‘s atmosphere with a speed high enough to be destructive. these weapons would be very difficult to defend against. Johnson. Unlike weapons that engage targets outside the earth‘s atmosphere.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: No Iran Threat – Conventional Forces Fail Spaced based kinetic-energy weapons are ideal for countries that seek global power projection without the need for earth forces. Chapter 3: Space Weapons Kinds and Capabilities) Space-based kinetic-energy weapons for surface targets also destroy targets by using their own mass moving at very high velocities. Rand. Michael. Because of their meteoroidlike speed entering the atmosphere. Jennifer. and munitions storage bunkers. 2002 (Sean. they have to attack targets at steep. The effort required to deliver one of these weapons to orbit and then to a target would be similar to that required for a large intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). This would mean having either a great many weapons in low orbits to have one within reach of a target whenever needed or a smaller number at higher orbits with longer times to reach targets. investment in terrestrial forces. hardened aircraft shelters. Edwards et al. kinetic-energy weapons could be desirable for countries that seek global power projection without having to duplicate the U. “Space Weapons Earth Wars”. Such weapons could be effective against stationary (or slowly moving) surface targets that are vulnerable to vertical penetration of a few meters. fuel tanks. To preserve accuracy and energy through reentry. such as large ships. missile silos. Preston. and Miller. Bob. Dana. Although they would be of little interest to the United States because it already has weapons that are effective against this class of targets. nearly vertical trajectories. tall buildings. 48 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Gross.S.

and civil and commercial benefits. and described the tests as successful. lights.S. terrestrial EMP attack over the continental U. finance and banking. the Rumsfeld Commission warned that the United States could face a ―space Pearl Harbor. Iran could punch America‘s soft ribs by launching an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack in space.16 Such an attack would have ―longterm catastrophic consequences. satellites in orbit affords the Iranians significant leverage . emergency services.‖18 Systemic failures in interdependent infrastructure sectors (e.‖20 49 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . the Iranians could conceivably forgo space and fly an ICBM over the United States before detonating the warhead.‖ A separate Commission.g.‖19 Chairman Graham also discussed the Iranian EMP threat in his testimony before Congress: ―Iran has also tested high-altitude explosions of the Shahab-III. transportation.‖15 The gamma rays from the explosion would obliterate most electronic devices and . Communication channels. and water treatment stations would cease operation.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Space Expansion Bad – EMP Attack 1/2 Iranian space supremacy causes EMP attack on the US Mazol.S. As space defense analyst Robert Butterworth notes: ―Far more than any other country.S. society . http://www. more importantly.S. ―Twice in the last eight years. the Iranians have tested their ability to launch ballistic missiles in a way to set off an EMP 14 . depends on space for national and tactical intelligence. military operations. The Claremont Institute‘s Brian Kennedy reminds us. shut down the transformer stations distributing power throughout the country. and water delivery) might become ―mutually reinforcing until at some point the degradation of infrastructure could have irreversible effects on the country‟s ability to support its population. A ‗scorched space‘ attack…would hurt the U.S. the mere ability to wreak havoc on U. specifically designed to assess the EMP threat.‖17 Rather than exploding the nuclear warhead in space. In 2001. causing an EMP In this worst-case-scenario.‖13 This option is particularly salient in light of Iranian reluctance to suspend its nuclear program. among many other critical services reliant on electricity. The aforementioned EMP Commission examined the consequences of a EMP Commission Chairman William Graham said such an explosion would cause ―unprecedented cascading failures of major infrastructures . most of all. While the Commission does not know the intention of Iran in conducting these activities. Iran could elect to detonate a nuclear weapon (or multiple weapons) in space.marshall. “Persia in Space: Implications for U. George Marshall Institute. Iranian military writings explicitly discuss a nuclear EMP attack that would gravely harm the United States.S. in the Caspian Sea. In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee. we are disturbed by the capability that emerges when we connect the dots. the U. „9 (James..pdf) Also.‖12 The consequences of a space Pearl Harbor would be particularly harmful to the United States given our dependence on space. National Security” Marshall Institute Policy Analysis. a test mode consistent with EMP attack. concluded a space-based EMP detonation would probably produce ―widespread and long-lasting disruption and damage to the critical infrastructures that underpin the fabric of U. February.

" The report also stated that "Prior commissions have investigated U. Furthermore. vulnerabilities and found little activity under way to address them. Unlike past blackouts." and "EMP vulnerabilities have not yet been addressed effectively by the Department of Homeland Security. including cell phones and other battery-operated devices. issued a Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack. „9 (Brett. However.Ready. saying that "Although an EMP is unlikely to harm most people. In 2004. our economy would revert to bartering.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Space Expansion Bad – EMP Attack 2/2 Extinction Joshpe. Although an EMP attack would utilize conventional nuclear weapons. Iran and North Korea recently conducted long-range missile tests. Doing so could take several years. The Wall Street Journal reported in April that Russia. saying. and other countries have "penetrated the U. Money would be worthless. "We note also that the United States has done little to reduce its vulnerability to attack with electromagnetic pulse weapons and recommend that current investments in modernizing the national power grid take account of this risk. we would simply be left in the dark. Spectator. such as www." Furthermore." It concluded that "EMP is one of a small number of threats that has the potential to hold our society seriously at risk and might result in defeat of our military forces . the Electromagnetic Pulse Commission.S. I have attended two lectures that discussed what could be the greatest existential threat to the U. Military experts also believe that Iran is specifically simulating an EMP strike. and one for which we are woefully unprepared. and North Korea may launch another missile soon in the direction of Hawaii. and one's most valuable assets would be guns and In recent weeks. how likely or plausible is this sort of attack? More so than we would like. http://spectator. however." If all of this is not enough to wake up members of Congress and a seemingly unaware public. it could harm those with pacemakers or other implanted electronic devices. it has included a short description of potential EMP effects in its "Are you ready? An in-depth guide to citizen preparedness" report. So. The U.S. rather than hitting American territory and obliterating a city with scorching flames. would be plunged into a primitive state in which people scrounged for food and water to" On May 6. attacks. airplanes would literally rain from the sky . the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States also issued a report in which it addressed EMP. and an Iranian military journalist recently said that "If the world's industrial countries fail to devise effective ways to defend themselves against dangerous electronic assaults then they will disintegrate within a few years . the weapon would detonate above the Earth's atmosphere. the potential effects highlight the gravity and immediacy of the rogue nuclear threat.S. Instead of seeing a mushroom cloud upon impact. In the report.S. or electromagnetic pulse. which Congress established. The way an EMP attack would work is as follows. it is an infrequently discussed aspect of our nuclear policy. electrical grid and left behind software programs that could be used to disrupt the system.S: EMP . Harvard Law JD in 2005. it actually misleads citizens into thinking that EMP is virtually harmless. then recent activity by American adversaries should. Instead." The Commission issued another report in 2008 in which it concluded that "The electromagnetic pulse generated by a high altitude nuclear explosion is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences ." The 2008 Commission report recommended that "The Department of Homeland Security should add content to Web sites it maintains. without electricity. An attacker would launch a nuclear weapon into orbit." It appears. “Darkness at High Noon. such as the one that occurred in the summer of 2003 and left much of the northeastern U. China." 50 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . that the DHS has neglected to do so thus far. Almost all forms of electricity. would cease to work. the lights would not come back on for years potentially. July 1.

in large part as a result of great power rivalry between Tsarist Russia and Britain. To Iranians. 51 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Iranian officials have set ambitious goals for their space program. military.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Space Expansion Bad – Regime Credibility 1/3 Even if it doesn‟t provide missile capabilities – Iranian space expansion causes nationalism and boosts the government‟s credibility – ending public opposition Bayyenat. Iran aims to develop a new national self-image and improve its international prestige . this experience of decline provoked national soul-searching by both religious and secular intellectuals and spurred calls for a national renaissance. Foreign Policy in Focus. and economic power over the past several centuries. Scientific and technological achievements present the image of an efficient and competent government to the public. This increased stock of social capital can go a long way in helping the government survive other possible shortcomings and inefficiencies along the way. The statements of various top Iranian officials to the effect that Iran has now entered the space club and the nuclear club. possess symbolic value for Iran as vanguard scientific fields. or that it has become a pioneering country in stem cell research. “The Politics of Iran's Space Program” http://www. but it has the effect of creating pride in the future for Iranian citizens and boosting their national self-image . Iran‘s efforts at expediting its scientific and technological development over the past few decades demonstrate the country‘s strong desire to break into the rank of the world's most technologically developed nations and bid farewell to its status as a Third World country. Space activities along with nuclear power and stem cell research. 7-6-‟11 (Abolghasem . July Iran‘s National Self-image Political motivations are also a driving force behind Iran‘s growing space program. Understanding the politics of Iran's technological development should serve as a check on the unwarranted paranoia that Iran‘s scientific achievements have generated in the West. in which Iran has made significant investments over the past few decades. For a nation once at the forefront of world civilizations. all signify Iran‘s struggle to acquire a new global status. it did experience indirect colonial domination.fpif. Although Iran was one of the few countries in Asia and Africa which escaped direct colonization in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. the experience of neo-colonial domination signified Iran‘s absolute and relative decline in scientific. The Iranian state can also benefit from enhanced political legitimacy at home. The national goal of landing an Iranian astronaut on the moon by 2025 may not seem realistic to outside observers. By developing its capacities in advanced scientific and technological fields. Defense Minister General Ahmad Vahidi's statement that the successful launch of the Rasad satellite into orbit is ―good news for all those who think of Iran‘s glory‖ is meaningful in this regard.

SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Space Expansion Bad – Regime Credibility 2/3 Aggressive Iranian foreign policy sparks slew of Middle Eastern conflicts Salem. Iran's long-standing support for regional Shiite groups is paying off. a nuclear arms race with Saudi Arabia and Egypt and war with Israel. reinforced by its suspected bid for nuclear weapons threatens to awaken historical hostilities.S. But its successes in Iraq. particularly in Saudi Arabia and Jordan . Washington and other key capitals must realize the costs of further mismanagement. the region could enter a period of protracted warfare. lexis) Iran's rise is causing alarm in the Arab Middle East. Iran has tried to reassure its Arab neighbors that Iranian power is not aimed at them and can in fact be a pillar of gulf security. where a minority Alawi regime dominates a Sunni majority. The rapid Shiite rise has already turned into a sectarian civil war in Iraq and recently has threatened to generate the same outcome in Lebanon. To be sure. has withdrawn from Iraq and Iran has developed nuclear weapons. Iran's radical Islamism resonates with the politicized Islamism that is energizing most Arab opposition movements. Iran's regional foreign policy has not yet caught up with its new pre-eminence. Other Saudis believe that confrontation will only lead to wider wars and are urging dialogue and accommodation.S. which might trigger a further Sunni backlash in the region. stand up for Sunni Arab interests and become a hands-on regional power.S. the U. but lately have been disengaged. while Iran supports Hezbollah. it has expressed a willingness to cooperate with the U. perhaps looking ahead to a post-Bush era.S. it has also held Hezbollah back from outright rebellion . could also lead to immense pressure in Syria. If Iran and the Arab countries . Nevertheless.and alongside them the U.S. In the Persian Gulf. At another level. Some in the kingdom argue that Saudi Arabia must confront Iran. February 21. and its militant opposition to the U. Lebanon and Palestine in one fell swoop. As a result. In this view. If Iran does not properly manage its growing power. it is making as many enemies as it is gaining friends and it might squander the windfall gains that it made in the past three years.S. on finding a soft landing for Iraq. Both Iran and the Arab countries are struggling to come to terms with the consequences of Iran's newfound assertiveness. Leaders in Tehran. when the U. For example. between Sunnis and Shiites and between Persians and Arabs. Too many Iranian successes. and too many Sunni debacles. but also in Egypt. and the international community do not manage today's tensions wisely. step back from the brink and work toward cooperative solutions before it is too late. Iran also feels the need for accommodation with its adversaries.. it realizes how close the country is to full-scale civil war. Lebanon and Palestine are creating great anxiety and even hostility. Likewise. or both. The tension is particularly acute in Saudi Arabia. Iran's rise. and support for groups that engage Israel in battle is very popular on the Arab street and in the Arab media. But the Arab world is divided about how to deal with the sudden rise in Iranian power. Riyadh. about the dangers of Iraq's possible collapse and now finds itself in an unequal face-off with Iran. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration is maintaining its radical rhetoric. because all players in the region share an interest in security and stability. Though a Shiite country in an overwhelmingly Sunni region. “Dealing with Iran‟s rapid rise in regional influence” Japan Times. which has warned the U. the U. 52 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .S. Middle East Director at Carnegie. it could unwittingly trigger a drawn out sectarian war throughout the region. not Iran. which have at times been dominant in the region. produced the region's current problems. The loss of Damascus would cost Iran its influence in Syria. such as Egypt and Turkey. „7 (Paul. while Iran may not be happy with the American presence in Iraq. But there is a way forward. It could also draw in major Sunni powers.. in some quarters.

Iran has reaped the greatest benefits from the Iraq war.7340. it is most unlikely that Iran will give up its nuclear ambitions at this juncture. Tehran may. whereas before the Iraq war stem the Sunni-Shiite violence in Iraq to prevent it from engulfing other states in the region. Iran could plunge the Middle East into a deliberate or inadvertent nuclear conflagration. By all assessments. but it could return Syria. to the Arab-Sunni fold. Egypt and Jordan are terrified of this possible outcome. If this were to occur. The war‘s consequences and the American preoccupation with it have provided Iran with an historic opportunity to establish Shiite dominance in the region while aggressively pursuing a nuclear weapons program to deter any challenge to its strategy. bully smaller states into submission. Therefore. more than once. Bush must realize that Damascus‘s strategic interests are not compatible with Tehran‘s and that the Assad regime knows only too well its future political stability and economic prosperity depends on peace with Israel and normal relations with the United States. Under no circumstances should Iranian-backed Hizbullah be allowed to topple the secular Lebanese government. It is high time for the Administration to reassess its policy toward Syria and begin by abandoning its schemes of regime change in Damascus. This move is of paramount importance because not only could Syria end its political and logistical support for Hizbullah. Tehran is fully cognizant that the successful pursuit of the Bush administration must also disabuse Iran of the belief that it can achieve its regional objectives with impunity.L-3361650. The stakes for the United States and its allies in the region are too high to preclude testing Syria‘s real intentions. for unconditional resumption of peace negotiations with Israel and was rebuffed. which could precipitate a catastrophic regional war. Syria simply The Bush administration has less than a year to rein in Iran‘s reckless behavior if it hopes to prevent such an ominous outcome and achieve. In possession of nuclear weapons Iran will intimidate the larger Sunni Arab states in the region.html) to the dismal failure of the Bush administration‘s policy toward it during the last six years. yet he is the same president who called. Washington must also take a clear stand in Lebanon. which is predominantly Sunni. it would trigger not only a devastating civil war in Lebanon but a wider Sunni-Shiite bloody conflict. Thus. at least.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Space Expansion Bad – Regime Credibility 3/3 Nuclear war Ben-Meir. the Administration must end its efforts to marginalize a country that can play such a pivotal role in changing the political dynamics for the better throughout the region. 2-7-„7 (Alon. and instigate regional proliferation of nuclear weapons‘ programs. and especially Saudi Arabia. President Assad may talk tough and embrace militancy as a policy tool. now its regional hegemony has now become intertwined with the clout that a nuclear program bestows. That is. Mr.” http://www. IR Prof at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. use oil as a political weapon to blackmail the West. if unchecked. as long as Tehran does not feel seriously threatened it seems unlikely that the clergy will at this stage end the nuclear program. For them Lebanon may well provide the litmus test of the administration‘s resolve to inhibit Tehran‘s adventurism but they must be prepared to directly support US efforts. however. threaten Israel‘s very existence. which can be ascertained only through direct talks.00. 53 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . In this regard. unless it concludes that the price will be too high to bear. The Arab Sunni states. miscalculate the consequences of its own actions. “Ending Iran's defiance. while the administration attempts to Washington could deal with Iran‘s nuclear program by itself.ynetnews. The fact that Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every sphere of American influence in the Middle East attests Feeling emboldened and unrestrained. the Bush administration must wean Syria from Iran. Iran could plunge Mideast into nuclear conflagration Although ideally direct negotiation between the United States and Iran should be the first resort to resolve the nuclear issue. In short. a modicum of regional stability.

sspconline. Looking at their current progress it could be predicted that within half a decade Iran could ‗enlighten‘ Israel that they are capable of damaging their satellites by putting ‗space mines‘ in form of small satellites into the space. “Iran: Looking Towards Space!” Society for the Study of Peace and http://www.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Space Expansion Bad – Israel-Iran War Iranian satellite technology allows them to challenge Israel Lele. Iran also has plans to invest in small satellites. With US forces sitting next door and bullish Israel in the neighborhood Iran needs continuous flow of intelligence inputs and clever investment in satellite technology could offer them a viable option. March 4. „8 (Ajey. at the backdrop of Chinese anti-satellite test they could even think of investing in satellite technology as a weapon of deterrence . Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. 54 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .org/opinion/IranLookingTowardsSpace_AjeyLele_040308) Conflict. Particularly. The ballistic missile‘s ―kill vehicle‖ collided with the satellite at an altitude of 864 kilometers. the Chinese military destroyed an aging weather satellite in LEO using an MRBM. „9 (James. National Security” Marshall http://www. February. attacking the U. space system may be an irresistible and most tempting choice . military space assets constitute its ―soft ribs‖ and ―for countries that can never win a war with the United States by using the method of tanks and planes.pdf) Institute Policy Analysis. George Marshall Institute.S. and its friends and allies.S.‖10 On January 11.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Iran Space Expansion Bad – Turns Case (US Space Supremacy) Iranian space capability undermines US space supremacy and hegemony Mazol. The Chinese realize both the importance and vulnerability of American military space assets . One People‘s Liberation Army (PLA) analyst concluded U. 55 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . The ASAT presents a challenge to the American military‟s “Achilles heel: its space based assets and their related ground installations. including developing a kinetic kill vehicle. 2007.‖11 Iran may take the necessary steps. “Persia in Space: Implications for U. Iran could utilize its space-launch capability in other ways besides building long-range ballistic missiles to threaten the U.S. with Chinese assistance).marshall. Tehran might mimic the Chinese and develop an anti-satellite (ASAT) capability. to build up an ASAT program (perhaps.

Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. 56 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Iran knows that in the space arena they need to be self reliant. They know for sure that the way US is trying to corner them on a nuclear issue.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage A2: Other Measures Prevent Iranian Space Expansion US can‟t stop Iranian space efforts – peaceful provision laws allow it Lele. „8 (Ajey. They understand that the biggest advantage of satellite technology lies in its dual-use nature. March 4. Today. Even Russia and China could also become cautious to deal with them in the space arena. http://www. With their nuclear adventurism they may find it difficult to get international support. would not be able to do so in respect of their space ambitions . “Iran: Looking Towards Space!” Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict.sspconline. They have Iranian National Committee (INCOPUOS) on Peaceful uses of outer space in place to handle issues related to their space During last few years Iran is cautiously looking at its own satellite development programme.

SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage ***AFF*** 57 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .

he co-chaired the Action Team of UNISPACE-III which has tried to develop a comprehensive worldwide environmental monitoring strategy. While there will be no attempt made here to somehow assert that China exerts any real influence over Iran's activities in space via The dominant narrative among Western politicians and in mainstream Western media is that Iran uses its satellite launches as a cover to develop long-range ballistic missile technology. This line of argument suffers from two main problems. for example.atimes." Ambitions in Space‖ 58 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . He and other ISA personnel have worked closely with senior officials from countries like Nigeria and Indonesia. so it doesn't need a cover to develop long-range ballistic missile technology. (Peter J. nothing prevents Iran from the perspective of international law from developing long-range ballistic missiles if they are only capable of delivering conventional warheads. when it joined 17 other countries to establish the UN ad hoc Committee for International Cooperation on Space (which later became UN-COPUOS). APSCO has served this purpose well. The same technology used to launch satellites into space can with some modifications deliver conventional and nonconventional warheads over a long distance to hit targets. Among other things. they are committed to peaceful space activities Brown. Foreign Policy in Focus. http://www. the six Arab members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. Similarly. Thailand and Turkey. China stands to benefit enormously from anything that calls attention to. Tarikhi's broader track record to date cannot be dismissed or overlooked. First. as well as against those extraregional powers which have military bases in the region. Peru. which are located within the striking distance of its various missiles. "Iran's Tarikhi emphasized that "Iran has pursued a space program for many years.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage No Internal Link – No Duel-Use Intentions Satellites launches not a cover for ballistic missile capabilities Bayyenat.5 times as much on their defense as Iran from 1997 to 2007. According to the Middle East Journal. Also. they spent 15.6 times as much on arms procurement as Iran during the same period. or otherwise underscores. in Western Europe or even in the United States. as a senior member of the ISA team. Indonesia. China organized ASPCO in 2005. He has contributed years of service to the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN-COPUOS). Iran‘s modest military expenditures as compared to even some of its small neighboring countries and the overwhelmingly defensive nature of its military capabilities all point to the fact that Iran does not seek military roles beyond its means . something that US President Barack Obama might ponder. and Iran is a participant in another forum. It first embraced the idea of using space and its technologies for peaceful purposes in 1958. In fact. “The Politics of Iran's Space Program” http://www. July 6. particularly from countries less advanced in the area of missile technology.html. Long-range ballistic missiles cannot significantly increase Iran‘s deterrence against extra-regional powers given that these countries are already equipped with missile defense shield technology that enables them to destroy incoming missiles in the air. Iran simply pursues military deterrence against regional adversaries. Iran does not define for itself a global military role that necessitates the development of long-range ballistic missile technology. Mongolia. and it now includes Iran along with Bangladesh. DOA: 7/16/11) The ISA has been involved in various peaceful United Nations-sponsored joint space activities for decades. spent 7. the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO). Besides having much to say about APSCO. Pakistan. writer. Iran is not a threat. Asian Times. China's efforts to foster the civilian and peaceful side of the global dual-use space technology agenda. 7-6-‟11 (Abolghasem .com/atimes/Middle_East/KB10Ak04. Second. 2009. Tarikhi's record embodies the ISA's commitment to developing assets in space both for peaceful purposes and for use as part of various multinational space projects. In an article published in "Position" magazine last June entitled. Iran‟s New Satellites Challenges China. As an established regional space forum in Asia.fpif. Iran is already subject to harsh economic sanctions imposed by Western powers. with a combined population less than one-third of Iran.

59 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . 3. much less video or photographic evidence. surface-to-air missiles. and even the Shahab-6 with a range of 5. The various modifications of the Shahab-3 constitute the main missile threat from Iran today. Iran used the liquid-propellant Safir space launch vehicle (SLV) to send the Omid earth satellite into low earth orbit. 2009. a highly developed R&D and industrial base. date accessed. The Safir SLV upper stage appears to be nearly optimally designed to launch a small satellite into orbit. The development and production of modern ballistic missiles requires an advanced R&D and industrial infrastructure. It does not show. that Iran has made a fundamental technological breakthrough. and that it has qualified engineers who are able to make good use of the technology that is available to them. and a highly developed R&D and manufacturing infrastructure.pdf. 7/15/11. with fuel and oxidizer tanks extended beyond those of the Shahab-3. Iranian engineers have demonstrated a high level of competence and ingenuity in rocket design. and a sufficiently large force of highly qualified and skilled scientists. diverse. large numbers of personnel with a high level of experience and skill. It does not have the R&D or infrastructure to develop ICBMs. FRSTRATEGIE.13 Fears have been expressed that the two-stage Safir SLV can serve as the prototype of a long-range Iranian ballistic missile. The Soviet Union and the United States started their ballistic missile programs with artillery rockets. materials. 3. it requires: access to the world market for high-tech equipment.and three-stage ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles. The Safir SLV upper stage placed a satellite weighing about 27 kg into low-earth orbit.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage No Impact – No Nuclearization (Technology) 1/3 Iran has demonstrated neither technological breakthroughs.13 Iran is trying to build up its own indigenous R&D and production base. or the scientists and engineers that are needed to make substantial improvements in the basic rocket components it has used from the start. Iran has demonstrated that it can exploit low thrust rocket motors to build a two-stage rocket. More which in turn depends directly on the general level of a country‘s scientific. advanced materials. but any nuclear warhead will be much heavier than that. and primitive guidance systems. and simple ballistic missiles. The Safir SLV can be regarded as a step in the development of ìstagingî technology. but it lags very far behind the leading missile countries. or ICBM capability. and industrial resources. however. The Safir upper stage is not likely to be suitable for carrying a nuclear warhead of roughly 1.11 On February 2.14 The launch of the Omid satellite provides new information about the way in which Iranian rocket technology is developing.000-6. In other words.frstrategie. research. and training institutions.000 km and more — have not been supported by any information. industrial plants. however.000 kg weight because the thrust of its rocket motor may be too low and because its structure may not be strong enough to support such a heavy payload during flight.16 SCUD missiles use relatively low-energy propellants. Iran started its ballistic missile program in the same way. 3. 3.17 The path that Russia. which is critical for the construction of two. Iran does not have the infrastructure of research institutions. sophisticated technical solutions. The Safir SLV upper stage placed a satellite weighing 27 kg into low earth orbit. and components. Unlike Russia and the United States. 3. and the United States followed in developing modern IRBMs and ICBMs required new technologies. China. By launching an earth satellite . SCUD technologies impose important limitations on the expansion of range and payload.12 The first stage of the Safir SLV is derived from the Shahab-3 motor and airframe. Reports about the development of new ballistic missiles — the Shahab-4.ORG 5/2009 (http://www. and it will continue to rely for a considerable time on outside help in extending the payload and range capabilities of its ballistic missiles. Shahab-5. It has made skillful use of rocket components imported from other countries.18 The history of truly indigenous ballistic missile development programs shows that every new phase of development requires tremendous intellectual and material efforts and many years to achieve results. the first stage of the Safir SLV is still based on the North Korean Nodong missile. 3. rocket motors with materials and designs that are very hard to upgrade to more energetic propellants. technological. and specialized system of educational. a general. 3.

Flight testing. southern Russia. (This is based on the estimates of the time it would take Iran to produce a simple nuclear device and then to develop a nuclear warhead. Mastering the necessary technologies without external assistance would be a major undertaking. If Iran decides to develop IRBMs or ICBMs. It would also need to solve difficult problems in flight control and guidance technology. and industrial workers. Iran could develop a ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead weighing 1. not from silos. 3. neither do North Korea or Pakistan.22 With the components and technologies it now has.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage engineers.000 km. The time it would take for Iran to do this is determined primarily by the time it would take to build a nuclear warhead that is small enough and light enough for an Iranian missile to deliver — that is. control systems. the Shahab-3M) is 1. That would require more advanced technologies than Iran now possesses and would take longer than the development of IRBMs or ICBMs on the basis of existing technology.20 The major scientific. Such missiles would possibly need a first stage consisting of a cluster of rocket motors.000 kg payload to a range of 2. as well as in system integration and component reliability. and airframe. Preparation for the launch of such missiles would be vulnerable to preemptive strikes. along with the associated turbopumps. IRBMs and ICBMs built in this fashion would have a serious disadvantage from Iran‘s point of view.000 km. They would be large. six to eight years.000. The development of powerful rocket motors. even though China has rather modest achievements in missile technologies compared with the United States and Russia. Iran could hypothetically build missiles with a range of 3. available at www. The total number of employees in the Chinese missile and space industry exceeds 200. and cumbersome. (These are discussed in the Technical Addendum. and they would have to be launched from above ground.) Along with the development of ―staging‖ technology. on the basis of the technologies available to it. for example. guidance systems. technological and production problems that have to be solved in building an IRBM or an ICBM are as follows: a. since they are the only rocket motors currently available to it. Iran would also have to make significunt advances in turbopump-related and airframe manufacturing technologies. Flight control. Construction materials. Nevertheless. These are both serious challenges. and it would face particular problems in controlling the thrust vectors of the motors in the various stages.14 Such missiles would be capable of striking targets in the Middle East. Table 1 shows that with such a payload the longest range of an Iranian missile for which we have technical data (i. Iran would have to learn to cluster rocket motors of limited thrust. does not now have a missile capable of delivering a 1. requiring extensive research and development and testing to gain the proper results and experience. and launch preparations would be visible.000 km.) Iranian officials have claimed that Iran has missiles with a range of 2. 60 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ .e. hundreds of entities participate in production of the ―Topol‖ ICBM. Iran. and production problems for Iran. 3. Because they would not be survivable.000 kg to a range of 2. Reentry vehicle heat protection. The design of warheads able to withstand the heat of reentry into the atmosphere would also present problems. c. and telemetry. Each of these areas would pose major scientific. (The United States and the Soviet Union used rocket motor clusters in rocket development.000 km or more. requiring perhaps ten years of concerted and visible effort. b. e.) 3.100 km. however. They would be anchored to their launch sites and would take days to prepare for launch and hours to fuel. In Russia. Iran does not have such an infrastructure. and southern Europe. The launch sites could be monitored from space.19 The leading missile countries have hundreds of research organizations and Industrial enterprises cooperating in the development and manufacture of ballistic missiles. missiles of this kind would not provide effective deterrence of an attack on Iran — indeed they might invite an attack — while their use would inevitably elicit 10 a devastating response.ewi.. technological. d. or based in silos and thus hard to destroy. it would make sense for it to develop missiles that are mobile and thus hard to find.

The unending political stress between Washington and Tehran has promoted some unconventional thinking.s) on Iranian nuclear progress have stated that there is no conclusive evidence that Iran has made any effort to build the bomb since 2003 . the director of National Intelligence. a Nobel Peace Prize recipient who is now a candidate for the Presidency of Egypt.I. Patrick Lang. Donilon. and William Luers published in The New York Review of Books. is to accept Iran‘s nuclear-power program. A round of negotiations five months ago between Iran and the West. created consternation and anger inside the Bush Administration and in Congress by concluding.A. he said. Yet Iran is heavily invested in nuclear inspectors have expressed frustration with Iran‘s level of coöperation. said in a speech on May 12th that the U. could be in danger of repeating a mistake similar to the one made with Saddam Hussein‘s Iraq eight years ago—allowing anxieties about the policies of a tyrannical regime to distort our estimates of the state‘s military capacities and intentions.E.. Hersh 6/6/2011 (Seymor Hersh is a writer for The New Yorker. first in Geneva and then in Istanbul. but have been unable to find any evidence suggesting that enriched uranium has been diverted to an illicit weapons program. Mohamed ElBaradei.A. ―I don‘t believe Iran is a clear and present danger. would continue its aggressive sanction policy until Iran proves that its enrichment intentions are peaceful and meets all its obligations under the nonproliferation treaty. Pickering and his associates are convinced that the solution to the nuclear impasse is to turn Iran‘s nuclear-enrichment programs into a multinational effort. retiring two years ago. In mid-February.‖ 61 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . however. on the Iranian nuclear-weapons program. Jim date accessed.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage No Impact – No Nuclearization (Technology) 3/3 Iran‟s nuclear weapons program is just hype. but to try to internationalize it. technology. Bush.A. no concrete evidence. Iran and the Bomb How real is the nuclear threat? http://www. provided the House and Senate intelligence committees with an updated N. Israel views Iran as an existential threat.E.S. Mentions Robert Einhorn. ―with high confidence. as did their predecessors under George W.). which is buried deep underground. International Atomic Energy Agency ( I. and offer Iran various incentives.S. In the past four years.A. Mentions the Defense Intelligence Agency (D. A previous assessment. Nevertheless.I. W. championed by retired ambassador Thomas Pickering and others. Lieutenant General James Clapper. The two most recent National Intelligence Estimates (N. spent twelve years as the director-general of the I. One approach. issued in 2007. including some of America‘s most highly classified intelligence assessments.E.newyorker.‖ that Iran had halted its nascent nuclear-weapons program in 2003. There‘s a large body of evidence. it has tripled the number of centrifuges in operation at its main enrichment facility at Natanz. All I see is the hype about the threat posed by Iran. Is Iran actively trying to develop nuclear weapons? Members of the Obama Administration often talk as if this were a foregone conclusion. Mentions Benjamin Netanyahu. and Lieutenant General Ronald L. but he and others in his Administration have often overstated the available intelligence about Iranian intentions.) Obama has been prudent in his public warnings about the consequences of an Iranian bomb. Mentions a 2008 essay Pickering.I. Jr. 7/16/2011) ABSTRACT: ANNALS OF NATIONAL SECURITY about whether Iran‘s nuclear program is being exaggerated. Obama‘s national-security adviser. Thomas E. suggesting that the U. most Israeli experts on nonproliferation agree that Iran does not now have a nuclear weapon. Burgess. In his recent interview. yielded little progress.E.

but Iran shouldn‘t proceed with its (currently) non-military programme. and that nothing can be done about Iran‘s resumption of nuclear processing. date accessed. but it is directly linked to Third World perceptions of the threat of American military intervention.informationclearinghouse. Nuclear weapons proliferation in the non-Western world is an old American preoccupation. even Muslim nations. In theory. Pfaff 01/31/2006 (William Pfaff is the author of ten books on U. Iran can close down a major part of Middle Eastern oil shipments by closing the Strait of Hormuz. but in the Middle East it is accompanied by certainty of overwhelming Israeli (or even American) retaliation. if not the only. foreign policy.htm. of course).Paris: Why is all this pressure being mounted against Iran when both Washington and Jerusalem unofficially concede that there is nothing to be done to prevent Iran‘s government from continuing along its present course of nuclear development? The contradictions in Western official and unofficial discourse about Iran and its nuclear ambitions are so blatant that one might suspect disinformation. and they are probably strong enough to keep both the US and Israel away from Iranian nuclear sites. just as uncertainty about North Korea‘s nuclear arms inhibits US policy in the Far East. but nations.S. (The India-Pakistan case is an exception to these generalisations. Pakistan and India (non-Security Council members). can have them too. British bases on Cyprus. Warning by American politicians that "rogue states" might attack Israel.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage No Impact – No Nuclearization (Desire) Iran only wants a nuke for deterrence. which include Pakistan and Russia. but it probably is simply the cacophony of single-minded bureaucracies working at cross purposes. 62 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . as well as Israel.The crossfire of public pronouncements draws attention to the inherent criticism of the Western position: the US and the other Security Council members can have nuclear weapons. All of this piles up in righteous Iranian eyes as evidence that Iran needs to go beyond its present programme and actually build nuclear weapons. where Tehran also has influence on the Shia clerical since there the perceived threats are strictly bilateral. at great cost. It has combined Revolutionary Guard and ground forces three times the total of American forces now active in Iraq. The urge to possess these weapons is directly reciprocal to American non-proliferation pressures. The US is even in discussion with India to supply nuclear materials (for strictly peaceful purposes. the US. Iran already possesses non- nuclear deterrents to American attack. and the paradox of the American policy itself. or Western Europe. do not. advantage that nuclear weapons provide a country such as Iran is the deterrence of intervention by the US or Israel. the balance of terror that existed between the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The Washington official line seems meant to build pressure at the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran. That would have kept the US at bay.) Possession of the bomb would also bring comfort and prestige to Iran in dealing with its nuclear-armed neighbours. and the threat of attack. whose nonproliferation efforts actually provoke nuclear proliferation. which holds the key to Iraq‘s future.-. Military strategy is also involved. The main. http://www. even while conceding that nothing practical is expected to result. 7/16/11) 01/31/06 "Asian Age" -. National prestige and pride are involved. and Israel. and the effect of the multiple lobbies involved and of US domestic political exploitation. obviously — and nationalism is probably the most powerful of all political forces. Individual Muslims may welcome martyrdom. are manipulation or propaganda. Iran at present is doing no more than it has a right to do in international law. Iraq‘s mistake in 2003 was not to have a nuclear bomb or two in working order. a threat of aggressive use of nuclear weapons exists. So far as anyone in the non-Western world can see. which Iraq did not. and the two countries have simply replicated for themselves.

Most threats envisioned in the US military‘s space doctrine simply do not exist in an operationally deployed s /apj/apj09/spr09/weston. DOA: 7/16/11) Iran. http://spacedebate. its only weapon capable of reaching space—a ballistic missile armed with a conventional warhead— would explode blindly. Iran has failed to reach even the basic stages in these grandiose projects after many years of effort. It will also probably try to build a military image-collecting satellite for supplying photographs of military quality . Vol. resolve conflicting demands. such as in the realms of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. Strategic Assessment (JCSS). USAF. stages that other states attained a long time ago. Iran also has a significant technological infrastructure.33 After all the hype about space warfare and space weapons. “Iran‟s Efforts to Conquer Space. Risks. Iran will probably seek to obtain additional capabilities. creating a dangerous debris field in valuable low Earth orbits. and even military quality imagery (up to a resolution of one meter) . 2005. the least space-capable of our potential opponents. 63 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . has no nuclear capability at present . Iranian ambitious spacepower goals. If the launches of the Zohreh communications satellites and the other research satellites are successful. a close examination of the projects that Iran has been engaged in indicates its great difficulty in attaining these capabilities. Air and Space Power Journal.there is little cost effectiveness in investing enormous resources to attain an independent satellite capability. No. In other words. an examination of currently fielded forces capable of direct counter space operations against satellites clearly shows that few countries can conduct this type of warfare. as contributing to the nation's strength and deterrence capability and bolstering its position as the region's leader. Maj. Nevertheless.100 km. could possibly reach direct-ascent altitudes of 650 and 1. “Examining Space Warfare: Scenarios.from imagery for research to communications channels. respectively.”. 8.macwell. If this assessment is correct and the Iranian failure is a deep systemic (Scott. The reasons for this failure are not clear but they seem to be linked to the government's inherent inability to coordinate government agencies. makes them in unlikely opponent in space Weston. http://www. Iran‘s most capable missiles.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage No Impact – No Space Threat Iran lack of space technology. Because that country lacks the advanced tracking and guidance systems necessary to intercept a satellite. head of the INSS Middle East Military Balance. consistently fail on similar projects because of poor coordination Shapir. for military purposes.airpower. and in the future. Iran is motivated to achieve far-reaching goals. 2009. and US Policy Implications”. Iran regards these projects beyond their functional aspects. and mobilize the required resources for the projects. especially the independent construction and launching of its own satellites. (Yiftah.html. DOA: 7/16/11) Iran is determined to attain an independent satellite capability for communications and research. this could point to questions on Iran's capability to materialize other ambitious programs. the Shahab-3 and Shahab-4. 3. Nevertheless. at a time when almost every state can purchase satellite products on the open market . the engine is stalled and important projects are being delayed.

S.S.000 kg. 2. 7/15/11) It could take Iran perhaps five years — and additional nuclear tests — to move from the first test of a simple nuclear device to the development of a nuclear bomb or warhead with a yield of several tens of kilotons capable of being fitted onto existing and future Iranian ballistic missiles . and believe that Iran would not be able to develop such weapons in the foreseeable future .frstrategie.pdf.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage No Impact – No Timeframe It‟ll take at least five years for Iran to have a warhead that could fit on their rockets. Several members of the group regard this as much more challenging than simpler but heavier designs. date accessed. manufacturing. or testing any nuclear devices (although U. unless substantial help were obtained from abroad in the design and development of the warhead. 64 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . intelligence community has published data proving that Iran is developing.9 The technological challenges lie not only in the design of the nuclear charge. Such a warhead would most likely weigh more than 1. intelligence has concluded that Iran carried out exploratory weapons-related work in the past). but in the design and engineering of the warhead as well.ORG 5/2009 (http://www. 2. FRSTRATEGIE. There is no seismic or radiation-monitoring data to indicate that nuclear tests have taken place in Iran.12 Neither the IAEA nor the The possibility was raised in our discussions that Iran could opt to use HEU to make a lightweight gun-type warhead like the 203-mm artillery shell first deployed by the United States in 1957 with a mass of only 110 kg.

including a payload capacity of nearly one ton. for example.[10] Given its technical specifications. for example. officials from Ukraine conceded that six ―medium-range.irantracker.[11] After initial tests in 1998.[13] Beyond the basic Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). with an estimated range between 800 and 1. April 9. „9 (Maseh.‖[15] Iran‘s pursuit of missile systems could involve developing indigenous production capabilities – or more simply.[14] As noted in 2008 by U. “Potential Delivery Systems for Iran's Nuclear Program” http://www.300 miles. Iran Leader at AEI Critical Threats. possess a nuclear weapons capability. to deploy a nuclear warhead with only slight modifications. air-launched cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads‖ were sent from Ukraine to Iran in 2001.[12] Although the exact size of the Shahab-3 missile arsenal remains opaque. an estimate from Janes Defence Weekly contends that after tripling its stock of intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) during the course of 2008.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Impact Non-unique – Ballistic Missile Capabilities Now Iran already has ballistic missile capabilities Zarif. Iran more recently tested the Shahab-3 in the summer of 2008 during a naval war games exercise.[16] 65 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . Iran possesses extended range variants of the MRBM. In 2005. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) director Henry Obering.[9] Iran could use the Shahab-3. Iran currently pursues ―newer and longer-range missile systems and advanced warhead designs. Iran would consider the Shahab-3 as the ―preferred delivery vehicle‖ for a potential nuclear Iran‘s Shahab-3 ballistic missiles. Iran‘s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ( IRGC) possesses 100 Shahab-3 missiles. importing complete missile systems.

66 ―Carol‘s baby hates Iran as much as any of us‖ . professor of history and adjunct professor of religious studies. Nonetheless a U.) (http://www.10 )(Choksy is professor of Central Eurasian studies. Choksy 03.-proposed new set of stiffer sanctions that would further deprive Iran's people but have limited impact on the leaders is running into opposition from foreign nations and corporations. their quest for regime change has stalled. which is another reason for much of the opposition to Essentially the prospect of profit outweighs fears of totalitarianism and mushroom clouds.forbes.S. decisions are all about staying in power on their own terms. Simultaneously Iran's government is augmenting its economic and diplomatic presence on the world stage.-led sanctions have hurt Iran's economy. As Iran's leaders have demonstrated for 31 years. Yes.19.html As Iranians begin a New Year (Nav Ruz) on March 21. The sanctions will likely lead to more totalitarianism from the Iranian government. but they will also affect international trade with Iran.S.SCFI 2011 Silent Nihilists Iran Disadvantage Impact Non-unique – Iran Nuclearization Inevitable Iranian nuclearization is inevitable Jamsheed K. U. and a nuclear state is foreseeable. even if atomic weapons may not be inevitable.

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