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Source of info complied below
National Debt, D [$ Trillions]
16 14 12 10 8
0 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 2040
Time, t [Year]
Figure 1: The growth in the US National Debt since Jan 1835 when the debt was actually $0, when Andrew Jackson (see $20 bill) was President. The table below gives the values obtained from the Bureau of Public Debt.
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Table of Contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
Summary The historical growth of the US national debt The Laffer Curve Rate of growth of the national debt, dD/dt Monthly debt data for Jan 1, 2009-Jan 24, 2013 My Facebook post on January 29, 2013 Jindal’s response to Obama’s liberalism Difference between a politician and a scientist Call for a Third Party My Facebook Posts on January 27, 2013 Old Economics versus New Economics Alternative view of the debt growth rate 2001-2012
2 3 6 9 12 17 22 25 27 30 35 38
A careful analysis of all the debt growth data, especially in the 21st century, reveals that the rate of growth of the US national debt (as measured by the derivative dD/dt, where D is the debt and t is time) has been decreasing, especially over the last two years (during the first term of the Obama presidency). It was also decreasing, after reaching a peak value, during the second term of the (younger) George Bush presidency but accelerated suddenly in 2008, due to the financial crisis. It should be noted that most of the discussion of the astronomical increase (or growth) of the national debt in recent years, especially since President Obama took office, even by leading economists, has been focused on the absolute debt levels D (now $16.433 T, on January 24, 2013), while overlooking the rate of growth dD/dt.
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§ 1. Historical growth of national debt (1835-2013)
Table 1: The Growth of the US National Debt
Year 1835 1863 1943 1982 1992 2001 2009 2013 National Debt, $ Trillions 0 0.001 0.1 1.142 4.064 5.807 10.627 16.433
On Jan 22, 2013, $16,432,571,159,411.57 = $16.433T (Obama's 2nd term begins) On Jan 20, 2009, $10,626,877,048,913.08 = $10.627 T (Obama's takes office) On Jan 22, 2001 $5,728,195,796,181.57 George Bush Presidency starts
Historical Debt Growth Data
On Jan 01, 1835, $33,733.05 (became $0 during this week and started rising) On July 01, 1863 $1,119,772,138.63 Crosses $1 billion mark (Civil War era) On Jun, 30, 1943 $136,696,090,329.90 Crosses $100 B (WWII era) On Sep 30, 1982, $1,142,034,000,000.00 Crosses $ 1T (Reagan Presidency) On Sep 30, 1992 $4,064,620,655,521.66 Crosses $4T (Senior Bush Presidency) On Sep 30, 2001 $5,807,463,412,200.06 Bush-II 1st term started on Jan 20, 01
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The national debt crossed the $1T mark in 1982 during Reagan's first term, quadrupled and crossed $4T in 1992, during the Senior Bush presidency and then quadrupled again and crossed $16T in Sep 2012 during the Obama first term. You can see here the national debt quadrupled from $1T to $4T (with Republican Presidents in office) and was $10.63 T when the junior George Bush left office. Thus, we have added nearly $6T (now at $16.43T) during the Obama first term. Just think about it. The debt climbed to $10.63T, between 1835 and 2009, i.e., in 174 years. It took only 4 more years to add $6T to the debt, or an average of about $1.5T per year. At this rate, when Obama leaves office in 2016 the debt will be greater than $22T. While this is surely alarming, let us also remember that the sky has not fallen. The US is still solvent, although in severe crisis mode. But, did it ever occur to anyone that, perhaps, this “crisis” is NOT half as bad as the Republicans want us to believe it is? How did the US manage to finance $1.5 T per year since Obama took office? This was done by "borrowing". From whom? Study carefully who is holding the US national debt. Your bank holds your personal debt. When the bank asks you to pay up, you have to pay. As long as monthly payments are made, banks usually will NOT call the debt. The same goes with the US National Debt. Until the creditors ask the US to pay up, all we have to do is keep paying the interest on the debt (which is several billions per month). But, no creditor is going to risk asking the US to pay up. Why? The risk is outright war with the US. The US can default. The consequences will be felt globally. So, this will NEVER happen. It is just an empty threat held by racist and extremist elements of the Republican Party. It is time to IGNORE them and move forward with a unified vision to restore the country's prosperity. President Obama is to be commended for his brilliant (second) inaugural address, although now already being critiqued by the Republican extremists (hey, afterall even Eric Cantor and Newt Gingrich found nothing wrong with the President’s vision) and extra-governmental shrills like the NRA, as being too partisan.
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pdf The top tax rate was 91% when President Kennedy took office and was reduced to 77% by 1964 (after his assassination). We have a trillion dollar debt because we are spending too much.13% when President Reagan took office.taxpolicycenter. may be at tax rate of 50%. let us get past all this "fake" crisis and concentrate on how to grow the economy and spend the money approved wisely to create jobs. Once people are employed. but the gist of it. he said. symmetric parabolic curve (see Figure 2). So. there must be a maximum point on the graph with increasing tax rate." (This is not an exact quote. top marginal tax rate was 94%). reducing the tax rate will actually increase government receipts (see arrow in the photo). they will pay taxes and government receipts will automatically increase. top marginal tax rate was 77%.6%.) This mantra of government spending gone out of control took hold and the top marginal tax rate was reduced to 28% using misleading pseudo-theoretical arguments of a maximum point on the graph of government receipts versus the tax rate (the Laffer curve). the deficits will go down and the economy will boom since all the rich folks who got their tax cuts will invest their money and create jobs. like it was done during World War I (President Wilson. Both Democrats and Republicans agreed to raise the top tax rate to these astronomical levels to finance these earlier wars. It was 69. The US ran huge deficits during those years. Hence.org/taxfacts/Content/PDF/toprate_historical. It was President Reagan who famously said during his first inauguration." Later. since jobs equals spending power for millions of individuals. if we assume that the graph is a simple.So. Let us make sure that our tax laws ensure that businesses (especially large businesses) pay their fair share of taxes and eliminate all the loopholes. again government receipts will go to zero since it takes away all the incentive to be productive and create wealth or earn money. Let us also make sure that the rich pay their fair share. "We do not have a trillion dollar debt because we are not taxed enough. Businesses will boom. "Government is the problem. Page | 5 . what it was under Clinton) and during World War II (President FDR. today it is 39. if we assume that we are past the maximum point. see link below for the tax rates data. government receipts will obviously go to zero. The argument was deceptively simple: if the tax rate is 0%. If the tax rate is 100%. http://www.
Donald Rumsfeld. then associate editor of The Wall Street Journal. as shown here with a maximum point at a tax rate of 50%. Dick Cheney. This hypothetical curve (supposedly sketched on a restaurant napkin by Professor Arthur Laffer during a dinner conversation some time in 1974 with his admiring Republican colleagues. of Page | 6 . often depicted as a symmetric parabola.§ 2. the disastrous effects of which endure to this day with out of control budget deficits and a national debt that has mushroomed to $16. R A Laffer curve 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Tax rate. on the falling side of the curve (the so-called prohibited region). and Jude Wanniski. then (BIG then) reducing the tax rates would actually start bringing more government revenues.com/arthur-laffer/the-laffer-curve/ ) provided the theoretical underpinnings for Reaganomics and supply side economics of the 1980s.laffercenter. The argument was that if (a BIG if) the economy is operating at some point like point A. All the disclaimers noted in the above article (see link above) were. T Figure 2a: Schematic illustration of the Laffer curve.433 T at the start of the Obama second term. see http://www. The Laffer Curve Government Receipts. both advisors to President Ford at that time.
x Figure 2b: A non-symmetric curve of increasing government receipts with decreasing tax rate. all the way to a ZERO top tax rate! Or. all the way down to a very low tax rate (take your pick!). overlooked conveniently and the Republicans of the 1980s. it all seemed like a good idea at that time. The fake argument about booming government receipts with reduced top tax rates defies the historical evidence of what Page | 7 .course. y = mxne-ax + c 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Tax rate. as it was called. have promoted (and still promote) this disastrous supply-side economics. Now we have "REAL DATA" regarding the effects of this Reaganomics.13% all the way down to 28% before President Reagan’s second term ended. Now Republicans seem to believe that there is no maximum point and that the curve just keeps rising (with a negative slope) indefinitely. Well. or supply side economics. especially after the dismal Carter years. that the curve must be nonsymmetric with a maximum point at some very low tax rate. Government Receipts. y Non-symmetric revenues-tax rate curve. Although the hypothesized maximum revenue occurs at a top tax rate of 50%. The national debt crossed the $1T mark in 1982 when Reagan was President and the supply side experiment of increasing government receipts by cutting the tax rate began. and their modern day heirs. top tax rate was cut from 69.
we have REAL DATA regarding the effects of Reaganism and supply side economics. We will all be better off in the long run.5T or even $5T each year by investing in programs what will grow the economy in the long run. no economist worth his salt even dared to speak up and point out the historical effects of increasing the top tax rate to nearly 100%. But. But. Iraq and Afghanistan. junior President Bush pushed for a tax cut and the Democrats simply caved in. Laxmanan Jan 23. 2013 Page | 8 . and cannot. at least temporarily. before the Presidential election. Now. Under President Bush (junior).63T of debt. I say. Let us take the power spending away from the legislative branch. There are many wise ways to spend $3. Amazingly.as to why this happened.JOBS. the US entered into two wars. let us demand that both Republicans and Democrats co-operate and work with the President and pass the annual budgets without the divisiveness and political brinksmanship. be "tinkered" with on an annual basis. We need a FRESH START now. We do NOT need to know all the reasons – the high and mighty academic reasons . Let us work towards a comprehensive tax reform. let the debt rise to $22T or even $25T.happened in the USA during the two world wars. Very sincerely V. Let us get the millions who are now unemployed and eager to return to the workforce back to work. and let the President define the budget and his/her (the next President might just be a woman) vision for the country and set the priorities. God Bless America. Just look the BIG picture above and the decisions made by Republican Presidents who got us from $1T to $10. The House and Senate should simply approve the budget submitted with minimal debate (and constructive suggestions for improvement). The urgent need of the WAS and IS ---. it cannot be based on the fake premises of the Reagan-Bush I-Bush II eras. Instead. a fair and simple tax code that will. without increasing the top tax rates to finance the wars and reduce the deficit. The US economy simply tanked in 2008.
619 12.062 15. dD/dt.174 1. dD/dt.557 0. This is the given in the last column and has units of $T/year.503 0.514 1. Page | 9 .433 Debt growth rate.302 14.191 10. The rate of growth of the debt.925 6.677 9.390 7. Table 2 above summarizes the US national debt at annual intervals with the data for each year on the date closest to the inauguration date. t years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Debt.428 1.728 5.§ 3. The Rate of Growth of US National Debt Table 2: The Recent Growth of the US National Debt Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Date 1/22/2001 1/22/2002 1/22/2003 1/22/2004 1/24/2005 1/23/2006 1/22/2007 1/22/2008 1/22/2009 1/22/2010 1/24/2011 1/23/2012 1/22/2013 Time.197 0.197 Taking the start of the Bush II (junior George Bush) as year zero.683 1. D Trillions 5.174 8.617 8. Trillions/yr 0.619 0. is obtained from the change in the debt (∆D) between consecutive years and the time elapsed (∆t.009 7. which is taken here as always being one year).465 0.236 16.608 0.760 1.
during the (junior) Bush presidency and the Obama first term. Page | 10 .400 0.62 T to $16. Notice also the slowing down of the debt growth rate during the Bush-II second term. since Jan 20.197 T/yr. However. prior to the financial meltdown of 2008.400 1. we find that the debt growth rate dD/dt had accelerated to $1.760 T/yr.200 0.197 T/yr. the rate of growth of the debt has actually decreased and is now at $1.Debt growth rate. at the start of the Bush-II presidency.200 1.600 1. the national debt was growing at the rate of $0. Hence also. although the debt D itself has grown from $10. dD/dt. it was growing at the rate $1. 2001] Figure 3: The rate of growth of the US national debt. since then.43 T or total of $5. In the final year of the Bush-II presidency (in year 8). This continued during the first year of the Obama presidency and has since actually slowed down. during the first year of the Obama presidency. the debt growth rate had accelerated to a high rate of $1.428T/yr. At the end of the Bush presidency.800 0.000 1.000 0. t [Year.800 1. dD/dt [$T/yr] 2.000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Obama 1st term starts Bush 2nd term ends Time.600 0.8 T.428T/yr. As we see here.
m. The velocity v = dx/dt. “money in economics” behaves just like “energy in physics”. is just like the speed (or what physicists call the velocity v) of a moving vehicle. Inertia is also emphasized in the title of this famous paper which goes as. due to the financial crisis. the economy also exhibits “energy”. This is known as “inertia” in physics.It is also of interest to note that the debt growth rate also shows a small peak during the Bush-II years and was actually decreasing during the second term prior to the sudden dramatic jump in the final year. as discussed in another recent article. “Does the Inertia of a Body Depend on its Energy Content?”. Here E is energy and c is the speed of light. ironically. mathematically dD/dt. in the form of “money”. The word “mass” is never used by Einstein to describe what is now. The point here is that. click here or go to http://www. just prior to the Presidential election of 2008.com/doc/120324960/Money-in-Economics-is-Just-like-Energyin-Physics-Extending-Planck-s-law-beyond-Physics ) In other words. The residual effect of this “jump” is still being experienced. We need to look at these things without our partisan hats. The debt growth rate. is like the effects of a sudden acceleration of a car. where x is distance and t is time. The debt growth rate dD/dt is still higher than it was prior to the huge (one-time) quantum “jump”. The acceleration in the debt growth rate. This is due to the total financial meltdown of 2008. in Einstein’s famous equation. and therefore also the property similar to the “inertia”. These are simple facts of how the US economy. referred to widely as the massenergy equivalence. he refers to “m” in this equation as the “inertia” of a body. The same applies for the economy as well. A car moving at high speeds takes longer to slow down. Indeed. with its trillion dollar deficits functions. The conclusions here are based entirely on data published by the Bureau of Public Debt and have been analyzed without any partisan bias. Americans need to start looking at these things dispassionately without all the hatred and venom that I see being spitted out each day at the President (based on various blatantly racist and Page | 11 .scribd. (When Einstein presented his famous equation E = mc2. in 1905. steps are already being taken to “heal” the economy and we have let things run their natural course without the sky-is-falling mentality.
monthly. we can make a FRESH START and support the President in his endeavors to rebuild this country.663T and the time elapsed ∆t = 11. the rate at which the debt is increasing is actually decreasing. 2009 to January 24. The change in debt ∆D = $1. 2009. dD/dt. 2013 **************************************************** § 4.partisan comments posted on the Internet each day). 2009. or yearly intervals. We take time zero (month zero) to be January 1. Laxmanan January 24. weekly.treasurydirect. the change in debt ∆D divided by the time ∆t over which the change occurs. This can be computed over daily. is also obvious if we consider the monthly data for the period January 1. This slowing down in the debt growth rate dD/dt.gov/NP/NPGateway) from the daily history data. The debt values at the beginning of each month (or the first date for which data is available for that month) have been compiled in Table 3. as desired. The monthly data was obtained from the Bureau of Public Debt (click here http://www.627 T where T = trillions. 2013 (the last date for which data is available as of this writing). Page | 12 .645 months on Jan 20. On January 4. Thus.355 months.290T. Mathematically speaking. Very sincerely V. The national debt was $10. or any other convenient time frame. when President Obama’s first term began. The monthly US Debt Growth Rate Although the national debt D is increasing. 2010. the debt had increased to $12. this is given by the values of the derivative. as just noted. or a little under one year since the Presidential term of office begins on January 20. time t = 0. Together.
is obtained from the change in the debt values between the months 0.173 14.713 13.889 15. 2013 Date Time.1465 0.4327 16.793 11.1423 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 4/1/2011 5/2/2011 6/1/2011 7/1/2011 8/1/2011 9/1/2011 10/3/2011 11/1/2011 12/1/2011 1/3/2012 2/1/2012 3/1/2012 4/2/2012 5/1/2012 6/1/2012 7/2/2012 8/1/2012 9/4/2012 10/1/2012 11/1/2012 12/3/2012 1/2/2013 1/24/2013 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 48.290 12. dD/dt Date Time.611 13.975 12. 36.907 16.645 (start of Obama term). 2009 to Jan 24.3799 11.427 13.089 12.342 14. Trillions Debt growth rate.1057 0.345 14.208 11. 12.628 10.765 12.051 13.62 15. Page | 13 .927 13.627 10.0972 The debt growth rate. t (months) Debt.837 14.649 11.Table 3: Monthly US National Debt data for the period Jan 1.338 16.355 months). It is clear that the debt growth rate has decreased when we consider the data at 12 month intervals (except the first period which is 11.111 11.942 11. and 48.343 14.088 15.110 14.518 11.159 16.697 14.8 14.673 15.972 15.508 12. 24.321 14.251 14. D $. $T/month. dD/dt 1/1/2009 1/20/2009 2/2/2009 3/2/2009 4/1/2009 5/1/2009 6/1/2009 7/1/2009 8/3/2009 9/1/2009 10/1/2009 11/2/2009 12/1/2009 1/4/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010 5/3/2010 6/1/2010 7/1/2010 8/2/2010 9/1/2010 10/1/2010 11/1/2010 12/1/2010 1/3/2011 0 0. D $.008 16.222 16.645 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10. dD/dt.835 13.4326 0.921 11.501 15.725 15.668 10.178 13.331 15. t (months) Debt.266 15. Trillions Debt growth rate.297 13.349 12.998 0.
146 Page | 14 Time.645. The straight line labeled A. 10. passes through the points (0. The straight line labeled A.00 Obama first term 10.146 and passes through these two points (0.00 A 16.146t + 10.146t + 10. 12.532. Notice that the monthly debt data follows this straight line A quite closely for the first 24 months. 2009. 2009 (Obama first term begins) and Jan 4. has a slope h = dD/dt = 0.645. the “overall” or the “average” rate of growth of the debt. The slope of the line h = $0. Time t = 0 months is taken as Jan 1.00 12.290). D [$ Trillions] 18.00 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 Figure 4: The growth of the national debt for the period January 1.532 14. the monthly debt values begin to deviate from this straight line and fall consistently below the line. 2013 (the last date for which data is available as of this writing).355 = $0. since Jan 2009] 2002002009]2001] . superimposed on the graph in Figure 4. with the equation D = ht + c = 0. National Debt. for the year 2009.00 D = ht + c D = 0.627) and (12.663/11. 12.146T/month for 2009. dD/dt = ∆D/∆t = 1. since the Obama Presidency began.627) and (12. Subsequently.Hence. This is the rate of growth at the start of Jan 2010.290) which correspond to the dates Jan 20. This means the US national debt is now growing at a much slower rate than during the first year of the Obama presidency. t [months. 2010 (first date for which data is available for 2010. 2009 to January 24. 10.
02 0. which agrees with the conclusion drawn from Figure 3.04 Obama first term 0. Debt growth rate.T/month is the rate of growth of the debt during 2009. These are the “overall” or “average” debt growth rate values obtained by considering the previous 12 months. t [Year] Figure 5: The debt growth rate dD/dt since President Obama took office. where we consider only the data at annual intervals. at yearly intervals. Notice that the monthly data follows this line closely (with data points falling slightly above and below this line) for about 24 months after which the data consistently falls below this line.0972T/month in Jan 2013. The growth dD/dt is determined for the first date in January of each year for which the debt data is available (see Table 3). dD/dt.14 0.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Time. also indicates that the debt growth rate has slowed down. Page | 15 .06 0. The debt growth rate was $0.10 0. see Table 3.08 0. dD/dt [$T/mo] 0. since the start of the Obama presidency.16 0.1465T/month in Jan 2010 and has since decreased to $0. The numerical values of the debt growth rate. see also Figures 5 and 6.12 0. This means the rate of growth of the national debt has been decreasing during the last two years.
dD/dt [$T/mo] 0. the debt change. 2011) when it reached the peak value of $0. is January 2009.Debt growth rate. Ignoring the month-tomonth values and taking the overall values for a whole year.200 0. The “averaged” values.150 0. we see the debt growth rate fluctuating up and down (kind of like monthly values of the stock price of a company. In between. Likewise. 2013 and inauguration day Jan 20. The national debt decreased slightly between Jan 1.000 Obama first term -0.050 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Figure 6: The month to month fluctuations in the debt growth rate dD/dt since President Obama took office. lead to the conclusions presented earlier. Hence the debt growth dD/dt was nearly zero.100 0.355T/month.400 0. taken over longer periods of time (such as a year in Figure 5). Time. 2013. are more meaningful than these monthly fluctuations. expressed in trillions of dollars.250 0. Hence. 2011 to Sep 1. since Jan 2009] 2001] Page | 16 . was in the fourth decimal place and above. or the stock market indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average.050 0. The highest debt growth rate was between months 31 and 32 (Aug 1. or month zero. 2009 and inauguration day Jan 20. 2009.300 0.350 0. the very first data point here is a small negative value. t [months. between Jan 1. or the S & P 500). Time zero (t = 0).
0 0.0 30. resulting from the vehicle shape.0 10.0 2013 Corvette ZR1 90 mph = 144 kmph = 40 m/s Time.0 20.§ 5. and the frictional resistance between the tires and the road). a. the graph is a rising curve which means the acceleration.0 30. or m/s) is reported in these road tests.php 0. 80.0 40. do take a look at the acceleration data here for the 2013 Corvette ZR1 which I analyzed recently to explain how the national debt is growing.0 25.0 Data Source: http://www.0 20. The times t (in seconds) to achieve various speeds (in mph. This is due to increased frictional resistance experienced by the vehicle (aerodynamic resistance.0 10. Facebook post on January 29.0 15.0 60.automobile-catalog. the slope of the graph.com/auta_perf1. The first graph below plots all of the available speed (or velocity) data. which is converted to meters per second. 2013 Dear All: For the car buffs here.0 Speed. v [m/s] 70. is decreasing as the velocity (speed) increases.0 5. or kmph.0 50. t [sec] Page | 17 . As we see here. or velocity.
Page | 18 . This is interesting. was first conceived and given a mathematical form.0 3. since the acceleration due to gravity is 9. Shamos (Dover Publications. 1959. An interesting account of Galileo’s original experiments may be found in Great Experiments in Physics. copper.0 Time. in the 16th century. For the 2013 Corvette ZR1.0 0.0 4. Toronto.968 a = dv/dt = 8.0 5. The idea of “acceleration”.0 0. Edited by Morris H.0 10. or velocity.96 meters per second squared (m/s2 where s2 means seconds squared). and so on) rolling down an inclined plane. t [sec] When a body falls to the ground from a height. however. Ontario). In other words.0 2013 Corvette ZR1 90 mph = 144 kmph = 40 m/s v = 8.0 5. 35. and is called the law of falling bodies. He discovered this law from laboratory experiments with bodies of various masses (made from a variety of materials like lead. its velocity v (or speed) increases at a fixed rate of 9.0 2. This constancy of acceleration of a falling body was discovered by Galileo.8 m/s for each second of flight. if we consider the data at the lowest speeds.96 m/s2 1.962 t – 2.Interestingly. given by the slope of the graph is a constant.0 20.81 meters per second squared. we see that the graph is very nearly a perfect straight line.0 15. mathematical analysis (linear regression) yields an acceleration of 8. the acceleration a.0 Speed. wood.0 25. which we now take for granted. v [m/s] 30.
the acceleration for small changes in the velocity (speed) for shorter time intervals. he went to the famous Leaning Tower of Pisa and dropped two spherical balls from the top of the tower. providing a dramatic demonstration of the erroneous nature of the age-old Aristotelian adage.259 m/s2 for the Corvette ZR1. “heavier bodies do NOT fall faster than lighter bodies”. the graph deviates from the straight line and the acceleration decreases. Note: The reason for the nonzero intercept made by the straight line is now readily understood. as Aristotle had taught centuries ago.96 m/s2 can be viewed as “average” acceleration when we consider greater time intervals. The force of gravity is thus very unique. Galileo found that the acceleration was independent of the mass of the falling body. is the rate of change of distance (or position) of the moving body. We see the same here with the Corvette performance data.by Galileo. at higher speeds. The acceleration “a” is the rate of change of the velocity. However. at the bottom of the tower. The acceleration “a” is a constant and is quite close to the acceleration a = g for a falling body (which is commonly denoted by the symbol ‘g’). whereas velocity “v”. obviously. The point (0.84 m/s 2. The maximum value is 9. In other words. To demonstrate this dramatically.96 m/s2. the speed v = 0. It provides a constant acceleration for all bodies falling near the surface of the earth. This was neglected to deduce the above regression equation. Effects such as air resistance (frictional forces due to the viscosity of the air) do not seem to be important when we consider large bodies such as those studied by Galileo(see later *). yielding an initial acceleration of 6.2 second. If we analyze all of the data. 0) would mean that the velocity v increased to 8. Including (0. 0) must be included in our analysis since at time t = 0. Subsequent accelerations were higher yielding the “average” of 8.33 m/s (first data point. we can compute the “instantaneous acceleration”. The value of 8. Page | 19 . They both landed at the same time. or speed. 30 kmph) in 1.
0 7.0 5.Instantaneous acceleration.0 1. Page | 20 .0 Data Source: http://www.0 9. such as the frequent "tinkering" with the tax rates) can thus be attributed to the change in the slope of the D-t graph.0 10.com/auta_perf1. The latter force becomes important when we consider microscopically small bodies but were not important in Galileo’s experiments.0 4. t [sec] 20. The acceleration in the debt growth rate (due to change in fiscal policies.php 2013 Corvette ZR1 The times to achieve various speeds in mph and kmph were merged here to determine the instantaneous accelerations 0.0 15. or its profits P) can be compared to the position of a moving body. a [ m/s2 ] 10.0 5. found that microscopically small bodies.0 6. fall with a fixed velocity.0 2. or the financial data for a company. in the 20th century. dD/dt. * It should be noted that. like a car. the same considerations apply when we analyze the national debt (D) data.0 0. The debt D (or revenues R of a company.0 3.0 8. the American physicist Robert Millikan. which can be computed using the debt D values as a function of time t. such as an oil drop (a few microns in diameter).0 Time.0 Now. is like the speed (or velocity v) of a moving body. under the combined influence of gravity and the viscous resistance of the surrounding air.automobile-catalog. The debt growth rate.0 25.
"excessive obsession with government bookkeeping". because of the resistance offered by the air molecules and the force exerted by air which might even lead to the feather rising instead of falling. In his experiments. Now. tell me why no one here is paying attention to any of this? :) http://www. or sometimes even a positive charge) from the surrounding ionized air.com/articles/business/moneybox/2013/01/perpetual_bonds_a_clever_way_to_manage_the_nati onal_debt_in_a_time_of_low. Millikan received the Nobel Prize for this work (and also for determining the Planck constant and thus confirming Einstein’s view of the particle nature of light. He charged the drops electrically by exposing them to ionizing radiation from a radioactive source. And I said so too . Jindal said it best. The velocity of the drop was measured very accurately by applying an electric field to counter the gravity field. They would be happy just to receive the interest payments. still considered one of the most elegant experiments in physics.slate. Perhaps. the apple would.html Page | 21 . If an apple and a feather are released at the same time. Aristotle’s teachings were based on such “extreme” observations. Millikan isolated a single drop and observed its motion (using a telescope) for long periods of time. Now.. That is how the system works. and "hideous mess" called the federal budget. ) No one who is holding the US national debt is ever going to ask the US to repay it (the principal). even Matthew Yglesias says forget about repaying the national debt. The electron charge was deduced from the sudden changes in velocity of the falling drop (when it picks up an electron. Vj Laxmanan (posted on FB ~ 6:35 PM) First it was Bobby Jindal. in my article on the National Debt here (and before they did! .) An account of Millikan’s oil drop experiments can also be found in the treatise by Shamos.. cited above. no doubt fall faster than the feather.Millikan was able to deduce the absolute magnitude of the electrical charge of a single electron from such experiments with falling oil drops.
Outlays . As we know GM went bankrupt. retirement. etc. 2013) ~ 9:20 AM Finally. have paid taxes when we were working to EARN our SS checks) and Medicare (this was. While cutting costs means cutting ALL operational costs.. but again was mainly designed to get private insurance off the hook of carrying their aging insured). like me. Budget cuts seem to always be aimed at cutting social spending (the New Deal of FDR and the Great Society programs of Page | 22 .Costs .) Profits can be increased by cutting costs. Jindal says what I have been saying for a long long time Profits = Revenues .. Cuts to the bloated military expenditures always seem to be off the table. as applied to the government (The reader can find several articles that I have published over the last year or so. which is what businesses like GM focused on and ruined their long term prospects. The phrase used was “lean and mean”. budget deficits can be reduced (which means surplus can be increased) by cutting outlays.. Louisiana Gov. Canada and Europeans were also being used early in this outsourcing game). We are now seeing the effects in terms of the highest ever long term unemployment rates. and it turned out to be mostly mean and not so lean on their operational costs.) and outsourcing jobs to suppliers or even outsourcing to low wage countries (not necessarily India and China.§ 6.. Likewise. Jindal’s response to Obama’s liberalism Vj Laxmanan Posted on Facebook (January 25. which discuss the implications of these two equations in this website. a government program. They have taken to calling Social Security an entitlement (which it is not. or government spending. I will grant. the elderly.. This is what Republicans have been championing and their budget cut mantra has pretty much ruined the country and is mainly hurting the poor and the middle class and the elderly. as applied to a business Surplus = Receipts . cutting employee benefits (health insurance. in practice it has come to mean massive layoffs.
but it was as much a rebuttal of Republican tactics as a tirade against Obama. The following is taken verbatim from the source cited. here comes Jindal to infuse some pragmatism! Thanks! We can increase profits by focusing on increasing revenues (which is a lot harder." His address.LBJ) that have made this country what it is. not just raising taxes on the rich.yahoo." lived up to its name. If the safety net is gone." he said. the son of Indian immigrants. and boldly calls for change.com/blogs/ticket/jindal-takes-obama-challenges-republicansredefine-party-020802357--election. audaciously sent to the press under a banner reading "Gov. by increasing government receipts (which means reducing unemployment to increase the total number of people paying taxes. Deficits can be reduced. http://news. or cutting jobs altogether). It's time for a new Republican Party that talks like adults. I'm here to say we've had enough of that. Page | 23 . which is the "stupid" GOP argument). It remains to be seen if he and the Democrats have the courage to stand their ground against the foolish and mindless assault of the GOP on this fundamental social fabric of this country. Now. we will nothing more than other (so-called) Third World countries. This is exactly what President Obama has forcefully defended in his second inaugural address. since cutting costs is so easy if it means cutting salaries. finally. sees a chance to make an early impression on the party faithful.html Jindal. Jindal to Refute President Obama’s Liberal Vision for America. This is what Jindal said at the recent Republican National Committee meeting. "We've got to stop being the stupid party. "We had a number of Republicans damage the brand this year with offensive and bizarre comments. or surpluses increased.
We seem to have an obsession with government bookkeeping.com/blogs/ticket/jindal-takes-obama-challenges-republicansredefine-party-020802357--election. P. and it is the wrong game for us to play." he said."Today’s conservatism is completely wrapped up in solving the hideous mess that is the federal budget.html Page | 24 . (But. mainly among the (long term) unemployed white folks who increasingly see Indian immigrants as the problem (I see too many posters ranting about Indians now) and the reason for their loss of jobs." Jindal went on to prescribe a message for the GOP that prioritizes economic growth over cutting federal spending.yahoo. S." Jindal said. Notice that in the article they are also once again complaining about Jindal’s “delivery” which has more to do with his Indian heritage. Balancing our government’s books is not what matters most. "We should put all of our eggs in that basket as conservatives and Republicans. it is doubtful if he will get the party nod in this climate. "This is a rigged game. ." He added: "We as Republicans have to accept that government number crunching— even conservative number crunching—is not the answer to our nation’s problems. Jindal must also remember that racism is now too deeply rooted in America. then Americans love the German accent. Wonder why!) http://news. especially immediately after Obama (and after Michael Steele failed the party after being elevated to RNC Chairman position after Obama was first elected President in 2008).. "Instead of worrying about managing government. the mammoth federal debt. So. the shortfall in our entitlement programs … even as we invent new entitlement programs.. Many Indians tend to “mumble” and also speak too fast and have not quite mastered the American accent. Government is not the end all and be all. the burgeoning deficits." Vj Laxmanan However. it’s time for us to address how we can lead America to a place where she can once again become the land of opportunity. or the Norwegian and Swedish and French accents! It is just the Indian accent they loathe. where she can once again become a place of growth and opportunity.
we have a surplus. JOBS. JOBS!!! That is the No. S = R . avoid default. and focus instead on growing the economy. another favorite GOP obsession. I love his use of phrases like hideous mess. where D is debt and t is time. I would like to see the Democrats reclaim this message and (have the courage to) lay the foundations for prosperity for the next generation and the present generation -. Page | 25 . Pure political mastery! So glad to see that a politician has finally come to recognize the "phoniness" of what I have been calling “debt mongering” (for years now) and also has the courage to say it. If the opposite. no US creditor will EVER call the US to pay up the debt. Then I start taking about dD/dt. As I have send earlier above.§ 7. How does a shrewd politician tackle the same? Like. It always WAS and IS. like that Benghazi thingie. When Receipts exceed the Outlays. the rate of growth of the debt. it is just a “rigged game”. It is just like "war mongering".who still cannot find a job. Yes.O To explain the national debt (or budget deficit which is a negative surplus). This is my "hangup" as one trained in the methods of science and engineering. Bobby Jindal did.even conservative number crunching. All we have to do is to keep paying the monthly interests on the debt. Add up all the annual deficits and the cumulative sum is the national debt. government number crunching . I use the above equation. We have to get our priorities right. JOBS. at least since the financial crisis began and millions got laid off. government bookkeeping. we have a negative surplus. Now. 1 priority today for the US economy. Difference between a Politician and a Scientist Surplus = Receipts – Outlays Or. Gov. or a deficit.all those who graduated from college since the disastrous Bush years and the Obama first term -.
the burgeoning deficits. "Today’s conservatism is completely wrapped up in solving the hideous mess that is the federal budget. the shortfall in our entitlement programs … even as we invent new entitlement programs. I am going to have to memorize this and start using these phrases in future articles on the national debt.Jindal's exact words are reproduced below (in bold italics and red). Balancing our government’s books is not what matters most. etc. We seem to have an obsession with government bookkeeping. Jindal to Refute President Obama’s Liberal Vision for America." lived up to its name. Cheers! ☺ His address.. budget deficits." He added: "We as Republicans have to accept that government number crunching—even conservative number crunching—is not the answer to our nation’s problems. audaciously sent to the press under a banner reading "Gov. ." Jindal said. Government is not the end all and be all. the mammoth federal debt. but it was as much a rebuttal of Republican tactics as a tirade against Obama." Page | 26 .. "This is a rigged game. and it is the wrong game for us to play.
3:10 PM) Chris Christie. Jon Huntsman (who ran for President and dropped out) and other like-minded (Republicans of today) should just bolt out of the Republican party and form a third party. The Republicans have destroyed the US economy with their ultra pro-business and unalloyed anti-labor stance which has led to the mentality of cost cutting and shafting the ordinary employee at the expense of upper management. This cannot be sustained and we are seeing the social havoc it has caused already. health care. shelter. Why do you think so many young white males (most of them living in reasonably Page | 27 . It was all cost cutting and union bashing. or progressive. he has understood that "deficits" do NOT matter!) and Christie (both before and after the election). 2013. I even saw Ross Perot's name pop up today in one of the comments to the article covering Jindal's speech. Call for a Third Party Vj Laxmanan 2 minutes ago · From my Facebook Page (Jan 25. There is no innovation to speak of in the manufacturing industry.§ 8. Bobby Jindal. he can be the "brain" behind a new type of conservatism. clothing. and eventually retirement. It was this mentality that led to (the old) GM's bankruptcy. They would all be doing the country a BIG favor if they formed the third party NOW. After hearing Jindal now (got to really hand it to him. I think the time is really ripe for this. laws have been enacted that allow businesses to get away with denying literally ALL benefits to employees and not even provide a living wage. thinking. Today. If one is working and has a job. The time is NOW. it is because they need the money to pay for the basic necessities of life: food.
get married. the astronomical growth in the number of millionaires and billionaires in recent years is rooted in this "windfall" of tax cuts for the highest income-earners. the top tax rate had been reduced to 28%. feel like rejects (cannot even get a girlfriend. When he left office. that is true. Now.13% when President Reagan took office. In days gone by. if there ever was any. Instead. it is the young women who are now in college and increasingly rejecting these non-college material males.affluent or middle class neighborhoods) are out there on a killing rampage? They do NOT have a job and no hope in life. and other probusiness policies (deregulation of all sorts) led to the financial crisis of 2008. Now. the Republicans have the gall to talk about Obama wanting to redistribute wealth! LOL! I don't want to deny the rich their riches. It has only been 32 years since the Laffer curve (see here http://www.com/doc/121955182/US-National-Debt-in-January-2013-AFresh-Start ) was used to push the illogical agenda of reducing tax rates to increase government revenues (using "phony" and unproven arguments) and creating prosperity for all since the rich (who got their tax cuts) would start investing their money and create jobs. The top tax rate was as high as 77% during World War I (President Wilson). which took root since President Reagan was elected in 1980. folks. Page | 28 . Did it occur to anyone that. these non-college material males could get a job. And. and start a family and integrate into society. 94% during World War II (President FDR) and was as high as 69. please hold your peace and disappear!) These unhealthy trends. that is a "windfall" for the rich. perhaps. I just don't want the crazy Republican extremists to deny the poor their food stamps and the elderly their Social Security checks and the middle class the ability to raise their families and send their kids to college. nothing to joke about!) and grab readily available assault weapons and go on a shooting spree! (The NRA morons. Like someone said. in just 28 years the tax cut mentality. MUST be LEGALLY reversed. they are depressed.scribd. work hard. Ever since income taxes became the source of government revenues. the top tax rates have always been raised to keep budget deficits under control.
This is NOT what the business world should be. Jindal. the pro-business laws have actually made it easier for businesses to grow like mushrooms and dandelions in you lawns and then FAIL and be exterminated and disappear just like those annoying mushrooms and dandelions. Let today's Republican party. Page | 29 . ultimately. We need a FRESH START. This is CORPORATE WELFARE! The Democratic party and the third party (the Progressive Republican Party and damn these stupid "conservatives and extremists" . And. "The Party left me!" That should be the slogan to found the new Progressive Republican Party. SELF DESTRUCT. with its Tea Party extremists and intolerant conservatives. in the name of free enterprise and capitalism. I say.because the employer has to provide zero benefits to employees and not even a living wage! Literally hundreds of thousands of businesses are started each year. based on this GREED. Conservative (but NOT stupid) on fiscal matters and progressive on social matters. And say loudly. BOLT OUT NOW from your party. all the while thinking that they will become the next Walmart or McDonalds. within two years. Christie.let them keep their guns and bibles and their rape apologists) can lead the way to new and competing visions for the country. All business costs are simply being passed on to the government. this is also NOT good for the economy. GOD BLESS AMERICA. IMHO. and the majority of them fail.It is so easy to start a business in this country -.
Balancing our government’s books is not what matters most. the burgeoning deficits. has slowed down as we see in the photos here. I hope he takes this message and has the courage to found a THIRD party. dD/dt where t is time.com/doc/121955182/US-National-Debt-in-January2013-A-Fresh-Start . My Facebook Posts on January 27. the rate of growth of the national debt.§ 9. Chris Christie. "We must stop being the STUPID party". see also http://www. Although the national debt (D) has grown by nearly $6T (sic trillion dollar.scribd. So. "Today’s conservatism is completely wrapped up in solving the hideous mess that is the federal budget. In a related post." He also told Republicans. Page | 30 ." Jindal said. and it is the wrong game for us to play. 2013 Cheers! The Sky is Not Falling The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are approaching their peak values in nearly five years. who was seeking the Republican presidential nomination). We seem to have an obsession with government bookkeeping... "This is a rigged game. former ambassador Jon Huntsman. the mammoth federal debt. Government is not the end all and be all. or 6 million millions). 6 followed by 12 zeros. by rallying other like minded Republicans (Gov. the shortfall in our entitlement programs … even as we invent new entitlement programs." He added: "We as Republicans have to accept that government number crunching— even conservative number crunching—is not the answer to our nation’s problems. I am providing two new summary graphs prepared from the updated document discussing this important topic of the national debt. which I quote. . Bobby Jindal's assertions (made in the classical language of a politician) at the recent meeting of the Republican National Committee. I fully applaud Louisian Gov.
and the value on the first day of January (or first date for which debt data is available) each year. What does that mean? One it means JOBS. especially good paying jobs that allowed even a high school graduate. we have to focus on bringing jobs back to the country. like Gov.Dear All: The national debt has increased from $10.433T. JOBS.627T to $16. The middle class has been devastated since the Great Recession began and turned into JOBLESS Recovery. a high school graduate. with no college education. with no college education. the rocketing deficits and this obsession with government bookkeeping and stop playing this "rigged game" and instead focus on growing the economy and making free enterprise work for all. But. during President Obama's first term. Cheers! Now. Here T = trillions. JOBS. and millions of families are still suffering and have felt. and are still feeling. or a million millions. or afford even the basic necessities of Page | 31 . can no longer earn a living wage. the massive debt. The debt growth rate plotted here is the "overall" or "averaged" value for the previous 12 months. to work hard. The second graph shows the values of the rate of growth dD/dt calculated from the raw monthly data of the first graph. or by nearly $6T. the crushing effects of long term unemployment that is now the reality for millions of Americans. In the America of the 21st century. or 1 followed by 12 zeros. Without creating jobs and bringing down unemployment rate we cannot restore American prosperity. look carefully at the monthly debt data plotted in the first graph. So. earn a good wage and start a family. Jindal has emphasized. we have stop worrying about this hideous mess called the federal budget. This was the America I came to and the America of the 20th century. The debt has been growing at a lower rate over the last two years (after month 24 of Obama's first term).
championed cuts in tarrifs. or normalized values. Income tax became a source of government revenue only after President Wilson took office. many of the ultra pro-business laws that were passed since President Reagan took office. as of this writing. Other leading Republicans like Eric Cantor and Newt Gingrich even agreed with the President. Two. Jindal has now presented a real challenge. aimed at reducing the massive federal debt of $16. even reverse. the national debt soared to astronomical levels (if we use ratios. etc. it means we need "tax" reform. President Obama has defended liberalism in his second inaugural address.life. cameras.D. a tariff! Is this unAmerican. Many Republican pundits reacted to it. true!). There was no income tax. Yes. (Hence it is that we find that it is mostly young white males who are going on killing rampages over the last two years. "Liberalism is back". a simple and fair tax code. Ph. WWI and WWII) did this by raising the top marginal tax rates. Page | 32 . this is the devastating social effect of no "hope" in the future for these young males. Gov. Wilson. cars. The pendulum now has swung too far in favor of the employer. During each of these eras. Three. to keep the budget deficits in controls. A tariff must be imposed on goods that are imported to this country. In fact. to hold the office of the Presidency. Tarrifs on imported luxury goods were the only source of government revenues. cellphones. must once again be made in the USA. the first (and only). Yes. TVs. computers. it means we have go back and re-examine and. Only a politician can. No economist will ever dare to say this. perhaps. of before and after debt values). Previous Presidents (during the Civil War era. and not even being able to find a girl friend. The most important part of the Jindal message is "obsession with government bookkeeping". so far that now companies can legally deny employees even a chance to earn a living wage. shoes. garments. or anti-free enterprise? Just study the history of our tax laws. The Senate minority leader Mitch McConell said. This is an important message.433T. hope to get married and start a family. All of us as Americans must STOP buying goods made overseas. appliances.
That is what America Was. let us grow this economy. enough talk. Jindal. Instead all I see and all that is left for the next generation is the bleak face for poverty staring in the face -. and some go around shooting! Please share this message. Ryan seems to have forgotten that we just had an election and he and his running mate Mitt Romney LOST! Page | 33 . seeking higher education. I have been here ever since. When fear grips. The American standard of living is going down and income inequality is rising. Jindal. That is the America I came to when I was young.the path of the THIRD party. I have already suggested a path in my earlier posts . GOD BLESS AMERICA. if you agree. Also. That is what American Means. Where are the jobs that you promised to create? Where is the laser focus on the economy? Enough talk. show us what your vision is in real terms. He thinks it is President Obama who is living an alternate universe and in denial about the “fiscal crisis” facing the nation.since JOBS have disappeared. President Obama. Ryan still did NOT get the memo from Gov. it turns into anger. do something and be bold. But. Gov. Let us focus on bringing back jobs so that even someone with minimal high school education can live a life of dignity and have a family. ****************************************************************** Who is in Denial? President Obama or (defeated VP candidate) Paul Ryan? Mr. the country I came to is GONE. Paul Ryan still seems to be “stuck” in his views about the deficits and the debt and still wants to cut social spending programs and so-called “entitlements” like Social security and Medicare. Also Mr. it looks like Mr. I say. sadly.So.
com/online/paul-ryan-resents-obamas-makers-vs-takers-linefrom-inaugural-address/ But less than 24 hours after the inauguration. what he’s trying to say is that we are maligning these programs that people have earned throughout their working lives. the knives were back out.youtube. Raymond Arroyo. interviewed the former vice presidential candidate about yesterday’s inauguration. who was filling in as host of The Laura Ingraham Show. Medicaid and Social Security and how he means to continue spending on these things and strengthening them.” Arroyo played a clip of the president speech.com/watch?v=kGpPjyGZ6o4&feature=youtube_gdata http://www. “When the president does a switcheroo like that. And so it’s kind of a convenient twist of terms to try and shadowbox a straw man in order to win an argument by default. he was talking about Medicare. At this moment during the inauguration. like payroll takes for Medicare and Social Security — are putting you in a ‘taker’ category. “They do not make us a nation of takers.” President Obama made his strong belief in preserving entitlements known in his inaugural speech. “No one is suggesting that what we call our earned entitlements — entitlements you pay for. in which he said of those programs. he did express frustration at being willfully misunderstood. and by using Ryan’s words against him he set up what is expected to be a bitter battle with the Republican-led House over the future of these programs.” Calling the president’s rhetoric a “switcheroo.mediaite. This morning.” While Ryan did not deny that President Obama referencing his own campaign talking points in the speech. Page | 34 .” Ryan responded. they free us to take the risks that make this country great. saying “the president implicitly referenced you I think.http://www.
I posted the following on my Facebook page on January 27. "Let's forget about this mess of a deficit and budget." After the above comment. No economist would ever dare to. Page | 35 . the rate of growth of the debt. see your $20 bill.§ 10. The new economics take the same information and computes the derivative.com/science-technology Science & technology www. Only a politician can dare to make such statement. D) like we see in the first graph (Figure 1 of this document) which plots debt growth from $0 (in January 1835. he would have created new economics -. Old Economics versus New Economics Vijay Nurani http://www.com The latest news and analysis around Science & technology.in the face of the current staggering debt of $16. Like · · Share · about an hour ago near Troy · Vj Laxmanan This is all OLD Economics.economist. with his message of "obsession with government bookkeeping" and "hideous mess" of a federal budget. as you see in the second graph (Figure 3 of this document). was President) to $16. Trust me.economist.433 T. Only a politician can say. when Andrew Jackson. 2013 at 12:08 PM (EST). The conclusion: the rate of growth is now declining. dD/dt. if Jindal persists. The "old" economics worries about the astronomical increase in the national debt (or the growth of the debt. 2013 (the last date for which data is available as I post is).433 T on Jan 24.
as in the fourth graph (Figure 5 of this document) and concludes that the rate of growth is actually decreasing although the debt itself is increasing. The new economics again takes the same information and computes the derivative dD/dt. as the “rate of change”.433 T today. Newton had to invent an entirely new field of mathematics. mathematically. In the 16th to 18th centuries.The "old" economics worries about the phenomenal increase in the debt D since Obama took office. deduced from empirical Page | 36 . the laws of motion were discovered by paying attention to what is known. to integrate the laws of motion (the law of falling bodies discovered by Galileo. called calculus. from $10. as in the third graph (Figure 4 of this document).627T to $16.
discovered by Kepler.phys. Bobby Jindal. (Copernicus also developed a new “theory”.uwgb. thus far ignored even by the world's leading economists (shown here in the second and fourth graphs) actually supports Jindal's message that we should stop this "obsession with government bookkeeping" and the "hideous mess called the federal budget" and focus instead on programs that harness the power of a free market economy.edu/astr161/lect/history/kepler.edu/~wudka/Physics7/Notes_www/node49. KEPLER. Please share this message if you agree. Galileo’s contemporary.html http://physics. a "new" economics is indeed now evolving (see also Figure 8 which follows here) with the recent BOLD message by Gov.com/class/circles/u6l4a.edu/lectures/gal_accn96.observations without benefit of any theory.htm Page | 37 .org/wiki/Kepler%27s_laws_of_planetary_motion ABOUT COPERNICUS.wikipedia. The declining rate of growth of the debt. also deduced from purely empirical observations. with the earth as the center of the Universe.ucr.htm ABOUT KEPLER http://csep10. and the laws of planetary motion.) Likewise.juliantrubin.cfm http://en. heliocentric motion as opposed to earlier ideas about the motion of planets in the heavens.html http://www.physicsclassroom.physics. ****************************************************************** ABOUT GALILEO http://www.edu/dutchs/westtech/suncentr.html http://galileoandeinstein.com/bigten/galileofallingbodies. AND NEWTON http://www. IMHO. GALILEO.virginia. applying merely the power of mathematical reasoning) into what we now call the theory of gravitation.utk.
§ 11. or the end of the month. or the end of the year (each representing a large “fundamental” time interval of interest) are all very different. It should also be obvious from the discussion here that the shorter the time interval considered (the shortest being a day). we must also take into account the rate of growth of the debt. while overlooking the debt-time (D-t) graph. which is determined by the derivative dD/dt. since the first week of January 1835. The shorter the time interval. or even the five minute. the greater the fluctuations in the growth rate. It is now $16.433 T as President Obama begins his second term in office. While the growth of the debt D (the absolute increase in the value of the debt) is important. or 1 followed by 12 zeros. This is obvious if we consider the graphs in Figure 3 (dD/dt calculated from year end or start of year values of D) and Figure 5 (dD/dt calculated from month end or start of month values of D). dD/dt. both of which are in the news are approaching the highest values that they had once reached. nearly five years ago. This debt level D has been increasing. Alternative View of the Debt Growth During the Period 2001-2012 The US national debt D is the cumulative total of all the budget deficits incurred each year. The same applies when we consider the rate of growth of the debt. This has been largely overlooked to date. The graph of DJIA or S&P 500. The debt D can be compared to the Page | 38 . the greater the “noise” or fluctuations that we see in the calculated debt growth rates (dD/dt). Here T stands a trillion. with more fluctuations being observed when we consider shorter time intervals. hourly. variations in the price of a stock. a million millions. which is of interest here. This is similar to the “noise” observed when we considered for example the daily. or the popular stock market indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or the S&P 500. or growing. The debt growth rate dD/dt is actually decreasing. considering only the values at the end of the day. although the debt D is increasing. or a thousand billions. dD/dt. we will now reconsider the debt growth data compiled in Table 2. Only the graph of dD/dt (last column of Table 2) was presented earlier in Figure 3. when it was officially $0 under President Andrew Jackson. if not minute-by-minute. values. Accordingly.
1 22. the times taken to achieve various speeds are usually quoted.33 17.com/reviews/2013-chevrolet-corvette427-convertible-instrumented-test-review which provides the times taken to achieve the 0-60 mph (3. The dD/dt graph on the other hand is like the velocity-time v-t (or speed versus time) graph. This acceleration is seen to be decreasing continuously.67 31. 0-100 mph (8.9 sec).position of a moving body. t Speed Speed or Velocity.html Table 4: 2012 Honda Civic HF road test data Time.22 26. see the Car & Driver magazine’s road test with the 2013 Chevrolet Corvette. v Acceleration.html Similar road test data comparing the 2010 Corvette ZR1 and the 2010 Porsche 911 Turbo Page | 39 . such as a modern automobile.3 s and the change in velocity ∆v = 4.01 The acceleration “a” in the last column equals the change in velocity divided by the time taken for the change in the velocity.44/1.3 6.3 8.31 1.html http://www.4 sec). In the performance tests of automobiles.caranddriver.44 4.44 m/s. http://www. The D-t graph is analogous to the distance-time graph in an experiment designed to study the motion of a moving body.9 14.42 m/s2.78 1. and 0-150 mph (20. the change in time ∆t = 1.12 1.42 2.78 22. Hence a = 4.7 sec).com/roadtests/sedans/1204_2012_honda_civic_hf_first_test/viewall.3 18.com/roadtests/coupes/1011_2011_chevrolet_corvette_zr1_2010_porsche_9 11_turbo_comparison/viewall. such as the road-tests routinely conducted with modern automobiles or the historical falling body experiments of Galileo.4 10.44 3. or the road test data for the 2012 Honda Civic HF (see Table 4) http://www.motortrend. For 30 mph to 40 mph.com/roadtests/sedans/1204_2012_honda_civic_hf_first_test/viewall. a = (sec) mph Meters/second (m/s) ∆v/∆t (m/s2) 0 3 4.3 = 3.motortrend.22 2.motortrend.56 40 44.11 35.17 1. The v-t graph suggests an alternative viewpoint of a nearly constant acceleration for a period of time (for 30-70 mph). http://www.5 0 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 13.
There are many reasons. it is obvious that at time t = 0 in such a test the vehicle speed v was exactly zero. The speed (or velocity v) is converted from miles per hour (mph) to meters per second (m/s) using the conversion factor of 1. indicating a non-constant acceleration.6 to get kmph (60 mph = 96 kmph) and then (1000/3600) to get m/s (60 mph = 26. In the case of the 2012 Honda Civic. For the special case of n = 1 and b = 0. it appears that we can approximate its v-t performance by a straight line with the data then deviating from this straight line at the higher speeds (velocities). Hence. It is sufficient to note here that most vehicles do NOT reveal a CONSTANT acceleration (straight line v-t graph. v = kt and the graph is a straight passing through the origin. we must also include this in our analysis. the acceleration is NOT constant and the acceleration a = dv/dt = (n . even for those with little or no background in science and engineering. This expression for the acceleration. for more than a decade now). In general. the constant k = a = dv/dt = v/t. 0) is not explicitly mentioned. Page | 40 .bt)(v/t). in the most general case. with the general equation v = ktne-bt.67 m/s). for many vehicles. Instead. the derivative of the v-t function.We will digress briefly to discuss the 2012 Honda Civic HF road test result since it is easy to understand. the acceleration of the vehicle. where v is the speed or velocity). Although the data point (0. the chief among being the increasing aerodynamic drag (or frictional resistance) at higher speeds for the non-constant acceleration characteristics of the vehicle. and also because it illustrates how we should study the D-t and the dD/dt data. a nonlinear curve. Such data can be used to assess the acceleration characteristics of the vehicle (which have been studied in detail by the present author. as seen in Figure 7. can be easily derived using rules of elementary calculus. ONLY for this special case. seems to provide a good fit to the data.
The time taken to achieve 30 mph was 3 sec. or three times 3 sec). the dashed straight line.60 Speed.44t 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Time. This means the acceleration is NOT a constant. t [sec] Figure 7: The 2012 Honda Civic HF road test data plotted here as a v-t graph where v is the speed (or velocity) of the vehicle and t is the time taken to achieve this speed. Hence.58 10 v = 4. it is obvious that v = 0 at t = 0. Since. The vehicle then starts deviating even from this “approximately constant” acceleration at the higher speeds. Page | 41 . However. as shown by the sold line labeled B. This highest acceleration is observed in the 0-30 mph test.25t + 6. with a rather high slope (or acceleration a = dv/dt = change in speed/time take for the change) represents the initial high acceleration of the vehicle. v [m/s] A 50 B 40 30 20 v = 2. as we see from the times taken to achieve 60 mph (8. it appears that we can take the acceleration to be “approximately” constant between 30 mph and 70 mph.1 sec instead of 9 sec. or velocity. we must include this point (the data point at the origin of the graph). Subsequently it takes longer to achieve the same increase in speed. labeled A.4 sec instead of doubling of 3 sec) and 90 mph (18.
which corresponds to a constant velocity (dD/dt = constant. The only difference being the significantly higher acceleration values in the 30-70 mph range.8 – 1) = (4.67 70 3.com/roadtests/coupes/1011_2011_chevrolet_corvette_zr1_2 010_porsche_911_turbo_comparison/viewall. i. Exactly similar considerations apply to the national debt data.html Similar conclusions can be drawn from the above test data. or fixed slope of the graph).0 5.5 26. with time t = 0 denoting the start of the Bush-II presidency in 2009.2 17. the last year of the (junior) Bush-II presidency.78 50 2. The D-t graph.33 40 1.Table 5: Porsche and Corvette road test data mph Time (sec) 2010 Porsche 911 Turbo Time (sec) 2010 Corvette ZR1 Meters per second (m/s) 0 0 30 1. For the Honda Civic the acceleration a = 2. This same rate of growth of the debt.5 2.1 7. has continued into the Obama first term.0 3. The speed.6) for a change in speed from 30 mph to 70 mph.8 secs = (3. prepared using the data from Table 3. if we take the debt D to be analogous to the position x of a moving vehicle. seems to coincide with the financial crisis in 2008.6 13.44 http://www.0 1.11 80 5.3 35.4 31. The difference lies in the 0-30 mph acceleration values.. or the acceleration in the debt growth rate (a higher slope. comparing the performance of the 2010 Corvette ZR1 with the 2010 Porsche 911 Turbo. or constant dD/dt.8 22.22 60 3.4 – 1.6 44. is illustrated in Figure 8 and reveals two regions of roughly constant rate of increase of the debt. or velocity.56 90 6. For both vehicles the acceleration is a = ∆v/∆t = 6.8 4.1 6.4 2. The change in the slope. to date. v = dx/dt and the acceleration a = dv/dt.25 m/s2 in the speed range 30-70 mph.e.2 40 100 7. or velocity). as with the Honda Civic.35 m/s2 since ∆t is equal to 2.motortrend. There is a deviation from this constant acceleration at higher speeds. in year 7 according to the time scale used here. Page | 42 .
this is merely a hypothesis. National Debt.381 10 5 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Time. if we consider the multi-year Page | 43 . we can conceive of a simple law of constant growth rate for the debt (dD/dt = constant). red line). since 2001] Figure 8: The national debt data since the junior George Bush took office in January 2001 (time t = 0).544t + 5.1. at this point.In other words. The changes in the debt growth rate seem to coincide with “extreme” financial events. This will be presented in later updates to this document (see Figure 10 for the Clinton-Bush II transition). Interesting test cases would the transition from Reagan to the senior Bush and from the Clinton to the junior Bush presidencies. it appears that as with the simple law of falling bodies (constant acceleration or constant slope of v-t graph). t [years. based on sound mathematical analysis of the available public debt data.511t . or dD/dt = constant. Of course.388 15 D = 0. and/or a change in the policies initiated during various presidencies. albeit an educated one. D [$ Trillions] 25 20 D = 1. One should. which is also approximately observed in modern tests on various automobiles. A nearly constant increase in the rate of growth of the debt (constant slope. no doubt continue this analysis to test this observation of a constant rate of growth (dD/dt = constant) during the term of a single President.
at the higher speeds from the power-law curve means that the more general law is the power-exponential law (nonzero b and n ≠ 1). v [m/s] 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 v = ktn = 6. see Figure 9. A significant deviation from this constant rate is observed between the years 7 and 8. for the sake of completeness. or decrease in the Obama second term. t [sec] Figure 9: The 2012 Honda Civic HF road test data is re-analyzed here using the nonlinear power-law model v = ktn instead of the linear model (with change of slopes). Speed. the acceleration dv/dt = a = k(ntn-1) = n(ktn/t) = n(v/t) is not constant and varies with both speed (or velocity v) and the time t. or velocity. in the last year of the Bush-II presidency. or increase. Page | 44 . which coincides with the financial crisis in 2008. The deviation of the data. Finally. v = ktne-bt with b = 0) is fitted to the Honda Civic road test data.67 Time. As seen here. The nonlinear implies that the acceleration of the vehicle is changing continuously with increasing speed (at time t) and is never a constant. From elementary calculus. we now that if the power law applies.data being plotted here. v = ktn (which is a special case of the more general power-exponential law. It remains to be seen if this rate will continue. The new rate (blue line) that was established seems to have continued through the Obama first term.3t0. the power law curve.
591 7. considering the change in Page | 45 . be used to model the debt growth data.482 5.933 6.752 5.343 0.798 4.988 5.190 0. The debt growth rate.the v-t data begins to deviate even from this power-law model at the higher speeds. The more general power-exponential law v = ktne-bt (not shown).613 8.512 4.017 0.728 5.055 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8.317 5.145 -0.402 0.188 4.610 0.365 0.953 The US national debt data for the Clinton (1993-2001) and Bush-II (2001-2006) years has been complied in Table 6. Transition from the Clinton to the (younger) Bush presidency Table 6: The Recent Growth of the US National Debt Year Date Time Debt Debt growth rate T D dD/dt Years Trillions Trillions/yr 1993 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 1/4/1993 1/20/1993 1/3/1994 1/3/1995 1/2/1996 1/2/1997 1/5/1998 1/4/1999 1/3/2000 1/2/2001 1/22/2001 1/2/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004 1/3/2005 1/20/2005 1/3/2006 0 0.329 0. This requires more detailed analysis.165 0.218 0.125 0. can be used to model this deviation.456 0.055 13 4.514 0.981 7. which is outside the scope of the present discussion. which is mainly aimed at demonstrating the reduction in the debt growth rate in the last two years.607 5.060 9 10 11 12 12.729 5. perhaps.168 4.286 0. A nonlinear law could also.592 0.389 6.023 -0.
during the second term. suggests a nearly constant growth rate during the Clinton first term (constant velocity dD/dt).. see Figure 11. During the Clinton years. The data then begins to deviate from this straight line. 2001. A new and higher constant rate is established during the first term of the Bush presidency. is given in the last column. t [Year.600 0. This is similar to the trends observed earlier in Figure 3.400 Bush-II 1st term starts Clinton 2nd term ends 0. the debt growth dD/dt was decreasing and became negative in 2001. just before the inauguration of President George W. Debt growth rate.the debt values for consecutive years.200 1. Page | 46 . 1993] Figure 10: The debt growth rate.800 0. during the transition from one President to another. Bush on Jan 20.000 -0. on the other hand. reveals a continuously decreasing trend during the Clinton presidency followed by a rapid reversal to much higher growth rates during the first term of the (younger) Bush-II presidency.000 0.200 0.200 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Time. see Figure 10. The debt-time (D-t) graph. It then started rising again during the first term of the Bush-II presidency and at an even higher rate in the second term. since Jan 1. determined by considering the debt levels for consecutive years. dD/dt [$T/yr] 1.
00 D = 0. National Debt. tax rate changes.553t + 0.) result in a change in the growth rate (as during the transition from the Clinton second term to the Bush-II first term). A constant rate of growth rate is suggested for the Clinton first term.174 Clinton 1st term D = 0.00 6. The transition from one President to another.00 8. since Jan 1993] 2002002009]2001] Figure 11: The growth of the US national debt during the Clinton years and the first term of the younger George Bush (Bush-II) presidencies.261t + 4.00 0. A new and higher constant rate of growth is then re-established during the first term of the Bush-II presidency. The data then deviates from this straight line and is actually decreasing to lower levels (due to the budget surpluses during the Clinton second term).959 Bush-II 1st term 5.00 1. D [$ Trillions] 9. and attendant changes in the political philosophy (tax cuts. willingness to pile budget deficits.00 7. A deviation from this constant rate to a higher level is again evident in the 13th year (start of second term of Bush-II). Page | 47 . see solid blue line.00 2.This confirms the earlier speculation of a “simple” debt growth rate “law” – essentially a constant rate of growth during a Presidential term.00 4. t [years. etc.00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Time. unless policies are enacted to change this growth rate.00 3.