January 25, 2013

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine.com. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!

MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

Week Open
13649.7 3135.63 892.73 1485.98

Thurs Close
13825.33 3130.38 900.19 1494.82

Change
175.63 -5.25 7.46 8.84

% Change
1.29% -0.17% 0.84% 0.59%

YTD
5.73% 4.12% 6.23% 5.08%

Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 40.51% 59.49% 15.10% 22.48%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
0.33% 0.67% -0.65% 0.24% 0.01% 0.98% 0.64% 0.11% -0.01% 0.12% 0.26% 1.05% -0.08% 0.75% 1.00% -0.13%

MTD
4.41% 5.49% 4.21% 6.12% 6.78% 7.56% 6.71% 4.11% 5.61% 5.75% 6.68% 3.50% 7.08% 6.16% 9.73% 4.44%

YTD
4.41% 5.49% 4.21% 6.12% 6.78% 7.56% 6.71% 4.11% 5.61% 5.75% 6.68% 3.50% 7.08% 6.16% 9.73% 4.44%

Valuation
6.60% overvalued 5.11% overvalued 5.84% overvalued 9.04% overvalued 13.73% overvalued 23.05% overvalued 7.33% overvalued 26.05% overvalued 14.55% overvalued 18.94% overvalued 13.69% overvalued 7.55% overvalued 5.41% overvalued 14.69% overvalued 22.14% overvalued 5.73% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
10.89% 4.48% -18.25% 9.15% 4.07% 29.06% 9.58% 11.65% 17.23% 4.91% 12.43% 13.75% -9.58% 18.58% 8.99% 8.46%

P/E Ratio
14.66 15.23 31.78 30.69 39.69 43.58 27.5 23.67 22.48 24.75 31.55 14.87 41.11 36.75 25.71 17.75

Sector Talk—Construction
Below, we present the latest data on leading Construction Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Construction Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker
HOV SHW USG KBR CRH

Name
HOVNANIAN ENTRP SHERWIN WILLIAM USG CORP KBR INC CRH PLC-ADR

Mkt Price
6.27 165.79 29.35 30.81 21.04

Valuation(%)
25.52 16.29 3.57 -7.72 N/A

Last 12-M Retn(%)
163.45 75.94 120.51 -2.59 8.62

Top-Five Construction Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker
SHW URI WY VAL PHM

Name
SHERWIN WILLIAM UTD RENTALS INC WEYERHAEUSER CO VALSPAR CORP PULTE GROUP ONC

Mkt Price
165.79 49.16 31.5 67.7 20.98

Valuation(%)
16.29 20.42 27.48 23.4 35.37

Last 12-M Retn(%)
75.94 44.72 62.29 63.76 170.36

Top-Five Construction Sector Stocks--Composite Score
Ticker
PATK KBR ACM URS URI

Name
PATRICK INDS KBR INC AECOM TECH CORP URS CORP UTD RENTALS INC

Mkt Price
15.62 30.81 25.49 41.36 49.16

Valuation(%)
-14 -7.72 -4.54 -5.19 20.42

Last 12-M Retn(%)
131.41 -2.59 12.99 4.89 44.72

Top-Five Construction Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued
Ticker
TPC NCS HW TXI GFA

Name
TUTOR PERINI CP NCI BLDG SYSTEM HEADWATERS INC TEXAS INDS GAFISA SA-ADR

Mkt Price
15.59 14.71 10.16 58.67 4.92

Valuation(%)
300 300 82.43 75.97 67.46

Last 12-M Retn(%)
-1.08 30.18 314.69 87.09 3.36

Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know, ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and creation tools. If you are reading this you should sign up for ValuEngine's award-winning To Sign Up for a stock valuation and forecast FREE TRIAL, service at the low price of Please Click $19.95/month! HERE NO OBLIGATION, 30 DAY FREE TRIAL!

Free Download for Readers
As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Detailed Stock Valuation Reports--this report is normally $25.00 This week's free download is our report on Exxon Mobil (XOM). Exxon Mobil Corporation's principal business is energy, involving exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, manufacturing of petroleum products and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products. Exxon Mobil is a major manufacturer and marketer of basic petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics and a wide variety of specialty products. Exxon Mobil is engaged in exploration for, and mining and sale of coal, copper and other minerals. Thanks to a free-falling share price, Apple (AAPL) is no longer the largest US company by market cap. Exxon Mobil once again reigns supreme. Free Weekly Newsletter Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on XOM HERE. Subscribers can check out the latest figures on XOM from our models HERE. Not a ValuEngine.com Premium Website member? Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today. ValuEngine's awardwinning stock Valuation and Forecast Models continue to provide investors with accurate, objective, and timely information on US stocks, ADRs, and foreign equities that trade on US markets. Over the last few months, our stock picks have provided clients with many winners in both up and down periods. If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE

What's Hot--Valuation Close to Watch Level
Our stock market valuation overview has almost reached critical levels. Each up day pushes the readings near the levels where we set our Valuation Watches and Warnings. We now calculate that 59.49% of stocks are overvalued and 22.48% of stocks are overvalued by 20% or more. When those numbers hit 60% and more than 20% respectively, we issue a Valuation Watch because in the past market pull backs have correlated closely to those sorts of numbers. In the event of a Valuation Watch, Investors should consider booking some profits and hedging against a pullback.

Subscribers Get FULL ACCESS to our Market and Sector Overviews The chart below tracks the valuation metrics from June 2012 until today.

We are keeping a close eye on our overvaluation metrics We will issue a Valuation Watch if needed

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.845) Annual and semiannual value levels are 1.981, 2.476 and 3.063 with a weekly pivot at 1.840 and daily, semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1.819, 1.413, 1.349 and 1.027.

Commodities and Forex Comex Gold –($1667.7) Weekly and annual value levels are $1609.2 and $1599.9 with my monthly pivot at $1673.8, and daily, semiannual, quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at $1695.2, $1719.2, $1802.9, $1852.1 and $1939.4. Nymex Crude Oil – ($96.01) Weekly and monthly value levels are $93.75 and $74.23 with quarterly and daily pivots at $95.84 and $96.66, and annual and semiannual risky levels at $115.23, $115.42 and $130.42. The Euro – (1.3373) Semiannual and monthly value levels are 1.2797 and 1.2343 with annual, quarterly, daily and weekly pivots at 1.3257, 1.3334, 1.3339 and 1.3360, and annual risky levels at 1.4295. Major Indices Daily DOW (13,825) Weekly, monthly and annual value levels are 13,583, 12,818, 12,696 and 12,509 with quarterly and daily pivots at 13,668 and 13,832, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 14,118 and 14,323. The October 2007 high is 14,198.10. The all time closing high is 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. S&P 500 – (1494.8) Weekly, quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are 1477.8, 1431.1, 1397.6, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with a daily pivot at 1496.7, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 1510.0 and 1566.9. The October 2007 high is 1576.09. NASDAQ – (3130) Quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are 3071, 2934, 2806 and 2790 with weekly and daily pivots at 3130 and 3135, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 3274 and 3583. The September 21, 2012 high is 3196.93. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2724) Monthly and annual value levels are 2610, 2463 and 2385 with weekly and daily pivots at 2733 and 2727, and quarterly risky levels at 2798 and 2920. Dow Transports – (5855) Annual, quarterly and monthly value levels are 5469, 5094 and 5012 with a weekly pivot at 5725, and daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 5869, 5925 and 5955. We ended Thursday with another new all time closing high at 5854.94. To confirm a “Dow Theory Buy Signal” the Dow Industrials need to have a daily close above its all time closing high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007.

Russell 2000 – (900.19) Annual, quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are 860.25, 821.01, 813.37 and 809.54 with daily and weekly pivots at 902.90 and 902.48, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 913.92 and 965.51. The Russell 2000 set another new all time high at 904.27 on January 24. The SOX – (410.24) Quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are 371.62, 347.83 and 338.03 with a weekly pivot at 412.87, and daily, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 413.44, 440.36 and 520.17. The July 2007 high is 549.39. Stock of the Day Union Pacific Corp (UNP) –($133.86) Union Pacific Corp. consists of one reportable segment, rail transportation, and the company's other product lines. The rail segment includes the operations of the corporation's wholly owned subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company and Union Pacific Railroad Company's subsidiaries and rail affiliates. The company's other operations include the trucking product line, as well as the other product lines that include technology, self-insurance activities, corporate holding company operations, and all appropriate consolidating entries. Analysis –Union Pacific has a Strong Buy rating according to ValuEngine with fair value at $124.83, which makes the stock 8.4% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year price target is $151.77.The daily chart for UNP shows overbought momentum with the stock above its 21-day, 50- day and 200-day simple moving averages at $129.84, $125.68 and $119.77. My monthly value level is $129.94 with a weekly pivot at $132.82 and semiannual risky level at $143.14.

ValuEngine.com Tools and Services
We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE

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