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CLIMSENS: Constraining total feedback of the climate system by observations and models.

Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie

Terje Berntsen Gunnar Myhre Magne Aldrin Marit Holden

CICERO and University of Oslo CICERO Norwegian Computer Center Norwegian Computer Center

Climate sensitivity:
The equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

IPCC 2007

Constraining the climate sensitivity

Bottom-up approach. Perturbing the
representations of the climate feedbacks in GCM models. historical observations and simple climate models

Observational based approach. Using

Q = F - T
Q: F: : Heat flux in the system Radiative forcing Climate Feedback Parameter

At equilibrium: Q = 0, = F2xCO2 / T2xCO2eq

Detailed RF calculations:
Emissions Oslo CTM2 model RF-calculations

Tropospheric ozone and aerosols

IPCC 2007

A simple climate model:

Energy balance model/Upwelling Diffusion Ocean

Unit m 2 cm /sec m/yr 2 W/(m K) 2 W/(m K) 2 W/(m K) 2 K/(Wm ) Value 60 0.634 0.4 4.0 16.0 3.5 0.0 0.8

Structureofthemodel Parametre:
Name Mixed layer depth Vertical heat diffusivity Polar parameter Vertical velocity, upwelling rate Air-sea heat exchange parameter Oceanic interhemispheric heat exchange coeff. Atmospheric interhemispheric heat exchange coeff. Climate sensitivity

Schlesinger et al. (1992)

Surface temperature Ocean heat content

Levitus, GRL 2009

IPCC 2007

Statistical model:

The data: Surface temperature (3 data set, NH and SH averages). Ocean heat content

Additative bias/correction for baseline SOI index, Account for El Nino.

Statistical model
Bayesian approach and a MCMC-algorithm: 1. Apriori distributions for parameters and input data. 2. Update your model with observations. 3. Get posteriori uncertainties for your model parameters and input data. One of them is the climate sensitivity!

IPCC 2007


Whats new?
Improved representation of the radiative
forcing history

Longer time period with observations


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