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General – Obama Approval High .................................................................................................................. 3 General – Winners Win ................................................................................................................................ 4 General – Economy Key to Approval ............................................................................................................ 5 General – Agenda Link Turn ......................................................................................................................... 6 General – Political Polarization High ............................................................................................................ 7 General – Executive Action = No Link ........................................................................................................... 8 General – Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................... 9 General – Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................. 10 General – Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................. 11 General – Obama Must Watch Out for Democratic Opposition ................................................................... 12 General – AT: Capital Fleeting in Second Term ........................................................................................... 13 Hagel Nomination – Yes – Schumer ............................................................................................................ 14 Hagel Nomination – Yes – Schumer ............................................................................................................ 15 Hagel Nomination – Yes – Boxer ................................................................................................................ 16 Hagel Nomination – NO – AT: Schumer ...................................................................................................... 17 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 18 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 19 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 20 Hagel Nomination – Uncertain – Needs Political Capital ............................................................................. 21 Hagel Nomination – No Impact .................................................................................................................. 22 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 23 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 24 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good – Iran ...................................................................................................... 25 Hagel Nomination – Not Certain ................................................................................................................ 26 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Bad................................................................................................................... 27 Gun Violence – Brink ................................................................................................................................. 28 Gun Violence – Control Works ................................................................................................................... 29 Gun Violence – Obama Will Push ............................................................................................................... 30 Gun Violence – Obama Needs Political Strength ......................................................................................... 31 Gun Violence – Public Supports Control ..................................................................................................... 32

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Path to Citizenship – GOP Can Defeat ........................................................................................................ 33 Path to Citizenship – Will Pass ................................................................................................................... 34 Path to Citizenship – Won’t Pass ................................................................................................................ 35 Path to Citizenship – Internal Link – Agenda Crowding ............................................................................... 36 Path to Citizenship – Inevitable .................................................................................................................. 37 Path to Citizenship – Inevitable .................................................................................................................. 38 Path to Citizenship – Already Done Border Enforcement ............................................................................ 39 Path to Citizenship – Obama Will Push ....................................................................................................... 40 Path to Citizenship – Not Inevitable ........................................................................................................... 41 Climate Change – Obama Can Boost Renewables ....................................................................................... 42 Climate Change – Renewables Not Growing ............................................................................................... 43 Climate Change – Obama Key to Climate Change ....................................................................................... 44 Climate Change – Government Action Necessary ....................................................................................... 45 Climate Change – Obama Global Leadership .............................................................................................. 46 Climate Change – Coal Coming Back ........................................................................................................... 47 Climate Change – Coal Regulations Help the Economy ............................................................................... 48 Climate Change – Carbon Tax Helps Economy ............................................................................................ 49 Affirmative – Climate Change – Carbon Tax Hurts Economy ....................................................................... 50 Affirmative – Climate Change – Carbon Tax Hurts Economy ....................................................................... 51 Affirmative – Climate Change – No Carbon Tax Solvency ............................................................................ 52 Affirmative – Climate Change – No U.S. Solvency ....................................................................................... 53 Affirmative - Climate Change – Regulation Has Huge Benefit ...................................................................... 54 Affirmative - Climate Change – Pressure to Enact Regulations .................................................................... 55 Debt Ceiling – Dollar Impact ...................................................................................................................... 56 Debt Ceiling – Impact................................................................................................................................. 57 Debt Ceiling – Impact - Economy ................................................................................................................ 58 Debt Ceiling – AT: Dollar Scenario .............................................................................................................. 59 Debt Ceiling – AT: Dollar Scenario .............................................................................................................. 60 Debt Ceiling – AT: No Impact – Can Make Selective Payments .................................................................... 61 Debt Ceiling – Threat Alone Won’t Hurt Economy ...................................................................................... 62

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GENERAL – OBAMA APPROVAL HIGH
OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING IS HIGHEST IN 3 YEARS – ANGUS REID POLL
Angus Reid Public Opinion 1.10.13

[http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48569/approval-rating-for-president-obama-improvesmarkedly-in-u-s/] Barack Obama heads to his second term as President with his best approval rating in more than three years, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,006 American adults, 54 per cent of respondents approve of the way the United States President is handling his duties (+4 since December), while 41 per cent (-4) disapprove. This is Obama’s highest rating since August 2009. The American President currently has the highest level of support in the Northeast (56%), and the lowest in the South (52%). OBAMA HIGH APPROVAL RATING – ZOGBY POLL
Forbes Magazine 1.13.13

[http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2013/01/13/president-obama-rides-high-intoinauguration/] A new Zogby Poll shows President Barack Obama with his highest approval ratings in years. The poll of 826 likely voters nationwide, conducted by Zogby Analytics January 10-12, gives the President a 56% approval rating, while 42% disapprove. Mr. Obama receives majority approval ratings from men (52%) and women (59%), Democrats (91%) and independents (55%); 18-29 year olds (68%), 30-49 year olds (60%), and 50-64 year olds (53%); Hispanics (65%), African Americans (95%), the Creative Class (57%), and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (58%). Moving beyond his base, the President gets a 40% approval among evangelical voters, 25% among conservatives, and 16% among Republicans.

forbes. who are pounded by all sides. THE GOP Forbes Magazine 1.13 [http://www. Climate.16. Citizenship p. but not as badly as both Senate Republicans (14%-77%) and Speaker John Boehner (16%-68%). Guns.13 General.Planet Debate Politics 1. 4 of 62 GENERAL – WINNERS WIN SPENDING CAPITAL ON THE FISCAL CLIFF HELPED OBAMA VS. Senate Democrats fare poorly (36% positive-56%).13.com/sites/johnzogby/2013/01/13/president-obama-rides-high-intoinauguration/] In terms of handling the recent legislation averting the “fiscal cliff”. Debt. Hagel. . President Obama receives a net positive approval rating (52%-43%) as does Vice-President Biden (47%-46%).

politicususa. Debt. . 5 of 62 GENERAL – ECONOMY KEY TO APPROVAL THE PRESIDENT’S APPROVAL WILL RISE AS THE ECONOMY IMPROVES Hrafnkell Haraldsson.Planet Debate Politics 1. Hagel.com/president-obama-popular-term. as polls demonstrate.13 General.html] President Obama inherited the economy Bush and the Republican destroyed. Guns.13 [http://www. Citizenship p.16. Climate. It is almost a certainty that Obama‟s approval will continue to rise as the economy improves.11. 1. while Congress remains less popular than lice. Politics USA. Obama has been impeded in every effort to restore the economy – by those selfsame Republicans – and the American people have noticed.

Climate.foxnews. but it was a heckuva battle. Defense cuts. The plan seems to be to have Republicans running from fight to fight that they cannot find a central point on which to unite and oppose him. Digital Politics Editor. Fox News. This time Obama is actually hoping to overload Congress. .13 General. Obama came back with fees for carbon emissions and his new health-insurance entitlement program. Citizenship p. Debt. two controversial nominees.16. The global warming fees and other initiatives mostly went by the wayside. even with majorities in both houses of Congress. Obama ended up getting what he wanted on insurance. In 2009. 6 of 62 GENERAL – AGENDA LINK TURN OVERLOADING THE AGENDA WORKS IN OBAMA’S FAVOR Chris Stirewalt. Obama overloaded the circuits of a Democratic Congress with lots of big plans. While Congress was still getting over the massive stimulus spending package. but never able to focus on putting one of them out.14. Hagel.13 [www. The president’s vision is of a Republican fire brigade running from blaze to blaze. Guns.com/politics/2013/01/14/obama-looks-to-overload-gop-opponents/] Gun control. 1.Planet Debate Politics 1. more borrowing without offsets and amnesty for illegals: that‟s a menu designed to give Republicans indigestion.

Climate. By way of thanks. however. Citizenship p. Real Clear Politics.16. Debt. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell helped the nation avert the fiscal cliff by cutting a deal with Vice President Joe Biden. . his voice trailing off in dismay. Boehner’s inability to keep House Republicans in lock-step is well-documented.realclearpolitics. The gist of the problem is a Republican caucus. From inside that restive GOP caucus. McConnell was greeted in the New Year by attack ads from a conservative advocacy group asking ―which side‖ the Kentucky Republican is on. the prevailing view is that the country is spiraling down a deep spending crevasse from which there would be no climbing out. many members of which are second-term Tea Party proponents who believe that holding a majority in half of one of three co-equal branches of government should give them an equal say.html] The Democratic-controlled Senate might be a vehicle for future deals between the White House and Capitol Hill. And so. Hagel.14. we can say we were the ones who helped assist saving Social Security and preserving Medicare.and in both parties.13 [http://www." Florida Republican Rep.Planet Debate Politics 1. . the time to use what leverage the GOP has is now: "Two generations from now.com/articles/2013/01/14/obama_and_boehner_in_need_of _couples_counseling_116672. Guns. ―If we don’t use the opportunity where we have a divided Congress and White House to try and get the best thing for the future . Tom Rooney told RCP. 1. he said. 7 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL POLARIZATION HIGH PARTISAN POLARIZATION IN CONGRESS HAS INCREASED Caitlin Huey-Burns.‖ Similar dynamics are at work in the Senate -. but the partisan polarization within the new Congress may be even greater than in the old.13 General. .

Conn. Christian Science Monitor. 8 of 62 GENERAL – EXECUTIVE ACTION = NO LINK EXECUTIVE ACTIONS DON’T DRAIN THE PRESIDENT’S POLITICAL CAPITAL Peter Grier. to banning whole weapon classes such as assault rifles. Yet such action would require little political capital on his part and would not distract from his efforts on something voters still say is their top priority – keeping the economy on track.Planet Debate Politics 1. Executive action could allow Obama to trumpet some progress on gun control at a time when the tragic shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown.13 General. Guns. Climate.15.csmonitor. Debt.. Hagel. . are high in public thought. 1. Citizenship p.16. even among some Democrats. and there is substantial opposition. Congressional action is uncertain.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0115/Obama-andgun-control-What-actions-could-he-take-on-his-own] The reasons the White House might see the executive action route as attractive are obvious.13 [http://www.

Guns. and this week he announced a trio of key Cabinet nominations that could complicate all three of those priorities. 9 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL CAPITAL LOSS INEVITABLE OBAMA FACES CONTROVERSY AND BATTLES WITH CONGRESS ON MANY FRONTS – LOSS OF POLITICAL CAPITAL INEVITABLE Russell Berman. 1. Chuck Hagel (R) for defense secretary an ―in your face‖ move. called Obama’s nomination of former Sen. and there appears to be minimal overlap between Obama‟s top priorities and those of House Republicans – namely entitlement reform. Most troubling for the president is that the latest vitriol is coming from the Senate.) angrily denounced his pick of Jack Lew to head the Treasury. Obama’s choice for CIA chief. . Debt.com/homenews/senate/276797-new-year-but-no-fresh-start-for-obama-gop] President Obama‟s second term hasn‟t begun yet. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S. Republicans are signaling they could hold up his nomination until the administration provides long-sought answers to their questions about the deaths of four Americans in Benghazi last September. spending cuts and broad tax reform. Jeff Sessions (Ala. Climate. Another major budget battle. As for John Brennan. The president and Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) are barely on speaking terms after their latest failed bid to strike a grand bargain on the deficit.). The House. A potential ally on immigration.13 General. while the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee.C. the chamber of Congress with which the administration has gotten along (relatively) well in the last several months.13 [http://thehill. The Hill. but a set of new fights with Republicans is already well underway. Citizenship p. All of which explains why the word “honeymoon” has not been uttered in Washington since early 2009. Hagel. immigration reform and gun control top his 2013 agenda. on the other hand.12.Planet Debate Politics 1. is verging on a lost cause for Obama.16.

director economic policy studies. 10 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL CAPITAL LOSS INEVITABLE THE NEXT BUDGET BATTLE WILL BE BIGGER THAN THE LAST Irwin Stelzer.html?page=3] If you think that the last-minute deal to avoid going over the fiscal cliff solves anything.Planet Debate Politics 1. its tax relief for mortgage-debt forgiveness and other goodies.‖ The White House puts it slightly differently: ―We are headed for 60 days of nastiness. its extension of unemployment insurance.weeklystandard. pore over the 154-page bill and consider its handouts to windmill operators and producers of all sorts of fuels other than those God put in the earth (a continuation of the president’s transformation of the energy sector). The Congressional Budget Office reckons that last week‟s deal will increase the deficit over the next 10 years by some $4 trillion. which he says is ―coming. think again. the table is now set for what Republican senator Lindsey Graham calls Round Two. during which three interrelated problems will give Congress another set of opportunities for late-night sessions. Debt. despite adding $600 billion to our tax bill. and we’re going to have one hell of a contest about the direction and the vision of this country. To understand why.13 General.” Others call it the politicians‟ version of March Madness. Hudson Institute. Hagel.13 [http://www. Worse still. Guns.16. Climate. Citizenship p. 1.14.com/articles/march-madness_693767. .

Surely. . who voted for the deal. On the other side.13 [http://www. slower-rising index. Citizenship p. Guns.weeklystandard. is also likely to hang tough in the March negotiations.13 General. In the course of the negotiations Senate Democrats even refused to change the inflation index for Social Security to a more accurate. Or even to consider increasing the age at which certain entitlements will become available. 11 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL CAPITAL LOSS INEVITABLE A GRAND BARGAIN IS VERY UNLIKELY Irwin Stelzer. and then force the nation to confront. But many of the politically savvy folks here in Washington very much doubt that 2013 will be the year of the grand bargain. Debt.html?page=3] Perhaps. Republicans would have to accept more wealth redistribution than they like. He knows that his majority leader. a man who has a lean and hungry look.000 to $450. although the president had said such a change makes sense.com/articles/march-madness_693767. and as the 2014 primaries loom. even if that change were to affect only those Americans still far from retirement.16. but another display of reasonableness by Boehner might make the Ides of March a troublesome day for the speaker. Climate.14. 1. For the moment Cantor has decided to sheath his blade. Only a minority of House Republicans voted in favor of the cliff deal. director economic policy studies. In short. even fewer will sign on to any tax increases the president demands. none of the events leading up to last week‟s deal suggest such a bargain is in the offing.000 for families. and persuade his party that entitlement reform is not inconsistent with Democrats‟ historic support for an expansion of the welfare state. Hudson Institute. It took substantial arm-twisting by Vice President Joe Biden to get Senate and House Democrats to agree to move the level at which taxes would go up from $250. and they remain sullen if not mutinous. Hagel. voted against the deal as a predicate to a leadership challenge.Planet Debate Politics 1. Speaker John Boehner. Republicans are even less likely to make the concessions needed for a grand bargain. and what “tax reform” really means. the left has yet to be persuaded that there aren‟t enough “rich” people to pick up the bill for the lavish entitlement buffet that liberal politicians have laid before them. the consequences of looming entitlement spending. Eric Cantor. for that is what means-testing of benefits is. For that to happen the president would have to admit to himself.

National Journal. with one of the president’s most partisan backers privately expressing doubt about whether he’ll support his nomination. Debt. Obama has already hit some unpleasant stumbling blocks with his own party.com/politics/obama-s-ambitious-second-term-agenda-couldbackfire-20130111] The White House‟s ambitious agenda on gun control.13 [http://www. 12 of 62 GENERAL – OBAMA MUST WATCH OUT FOR DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION DEMOCRATS COULD BLOCK THE PRESIDENT’S AGENDA Josh Kraushaar. Chuck Hagel. Guns. immigration reform.Planet Debate Politics 1. perhaps. Just one week into the new year. Senators from the president’s own party are the ones giving him trouble over his nominee for Defense secretary. Hagel. Climate.nationaljournal.16. 1. former GOP Sen. a sharp U-turn from its optimism heading into the new year.13 General. Citizenship p. the White House is now calculating that it will be ―exceedingly difficult‖ to pass broad measures. and. But that isn‟t welcome news to many of the Democrats who need him the most in the short term--the seven Democratic senators in conservative states facing tough reelection bids. .11. On gun control. The New York Times reports. even climate change is a sign that President Obama believes he locked up precious political capital with his reelection and intends to spend it quickly.

Now he has a feel for the game.16. That may not be true in Obama's case. He can back them into a corner or woo them one-by one. His Republican foes are in retreat and disarray.14.13 [http://www." He was a novice at Washington and at the give-and-take of politics four years ago. as he did recently on the "fiscal cliff. Citizenship p.huffingtonpost. power fades quickly. Guns.html] For most reelected presidents. Huffington Post. Laws he passed in his first term can be implemented without going back to a nettlesome Congress. Hagel. . Debt. 1.13 General. The world economy could be poised for a new round of growth. Climate. 13 of 62 GENERAL – AT: CAPITAL FLEETING IN SECOND TERM OBAMA’S POLITICAL STRENGTH MAY HAVE STAYING POWER Howard Fineman.com/howard-fineman/obama-second-term-the-roadforward_b_2468998.Planet Debate Politics 1.

16. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif. But Hagel has appeared to have alleviated those fears ahead of his crucial confirmation hearings before the Senate Armed Services Committee in the coming weeks. 1. Schumer‟s backing is a major sign that Democrats who have expressed squeamishness over his nomination are starting to come on board. Politico. Citizenship p. removing a major obstacle to his nomination and greatly increasing the chances he‟ll be confirmed.13 [http://www. Debt.politico. Hamas and Hezbollah rather than push tougher measures preferred by proIsrael members of the Senate Democratic Caucus. . even as Hagel continues to face opposition from the right. Democrats have raised concerns that Hagel has been too quick to call for direct engagement with Iran.15. And with Democrats now holding a 55-45 majority in the Senate. Climate. as Sen. And they’re an important sign that Democrats who have expressed concerns over his nomination are starting to come on board.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215. 1.politico.15.) did Monday night. 14 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – YES – SCHUMER SCHUMER SUPPORT MAKES HAGEL NOMINATION VERY LIKELY Manu Raju. Chuck Schumer announced Tuesday he‟d support Chuck Hagel‟s nomination as defense secretary.html] Schumer‟s support may mean a major tipping point for Hagel‟s nomination. Hagel‟s prospects greatly brightened with Schumer‟s support for his nomination.13 [http://www.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 General. SCHUMER’S SUPPORT WILL BRING ALL DEMOCRATS TO HAGEL Manu Raju.html] New York Sen. Guns. Hagel. given his clout within the Senate Democratic Caucus and his deep ties to pro-Israel hawks on and off the Hill. Most notably. Politico.

Climate. his opinion matters a great deal. Schumer. as such. Given those stakes. SCHUMER WAS THE KEY LYNCHPIN FOR HAGEL’S NOMINATION Washington Post 1. . So. if personally Schumer has reason to oppose Hagel. knows that. Guns. Citizenship p. politically he has every reason to support him.16. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif. understands that he likely holds Hagel’s fate in his hands. And he doesn’t want to own the defeat of (and blame for) a Cabinet nominee put forward at the cusp of Obama’s second term.14 [http://www. Debt. Regardless of where he ends up. our (educated) guess is that if Hagel is apologetic about some of his past statements during his meeting with Schumer. being one of the smartest strategists in the Senate. Schumer‟s announcement follows the public endorsement of Hagel by Sen.washingtonpost. Washington Post.washingtonpost. 15 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – YES – SCHUMER SCHUMER IS “THE DECIDER” ON THE HAGEL NOMINATION Chris Cilliza. as many senior Republicans have expressed deep doubt about Hagel’s confirmation.13 [http://www. Schumer is widely regarded as the next leader of Senate Democrats and.).Planet Debate Politics 1.html] Schumer had become a key linchpin in the nomination battle. it would give cover for other Democrats to follow suit — a domino effect that almost certainly would destroy Hagel’s chances. Hagel. another prominent Jewish Democrat who is also a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee.14. If Schumer had opposed Hagel. Schumer. 1. he would probably vote no. But he can’t. the New York Democrat will find a way to say yes. of course. If Schumer signaled that he would vote no. then a crucial bloc of pro-Israel Democrats might have joined him and made confirmation impossible.15. make no mistake: Chuck Schumer is the decider on the fate of Chuck Hagel‟s nomination.com/politics/schumer-to-back-hagel/2013/01/15/ffd46fc85f23-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/01/14/how-chuck-schumercan-make-or-break-chuck-hagel/] What seems abundantly clear is that if Schumer could make his decision on Hagel in a political vacuum.13 General.

. also outlining a more hawkish stance toward Hezbollah and Iran. Climate.13 General. Guns. Hagel apologized for previously using the term ―Jewish lobby.html] The White House and Hagel both clearly recognize that wooing Jewish Democrats — like Schumer and Boxer — are a top priority before the former Nebraska GOP senator‟s confirmation hearings.15.Planet Debate Politics 1.politico.‖ calling it a ―very poor choice of words. Hagel.13 [http://www. Politico.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215. 16 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – YES – BOXER SUPPORT FROM BOXER SHOWS HAGEL WILL WIN PROGRESSIVE SENATORS Manu Raju. Citizenship p. Debt. 1.16. Hagel sent a letter Monday to Boxer. a sign of growing support on the left.‖ And Boxer — who does not serve on the Armed Services Committee — announced her support of Hagel.

Hagel reportedly said he’d urge the president to decline joining in any NATO exercises if Turkey insists on excluding Israel. Guns. which they call a success.S. saying that the former Nebraska GOP senator would push for delivering F-35 joint strikers to Israel.politico.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 General.16.html] Schumer added Hagel gave him several assurances that U.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215. and they say his words do little to correct a 12-year Senate record that didn’t fully advocate for Israeli interests. who believe Hagel espouses a doveish world view. . they are quick to criticize his furious opposition to the troop surge in Iraq. Among other things. 17 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – NO – AT: SCHUMER SCHUMER SUPPORT WON’T SWAY REPUBLICANS Manu Raju. Citizenship p.15. Debt. 1. Politico. Still. Climate.-Israeli cooperation would continue if he’s confirmed. Hagel. such assurances alone are not enough to stop opposition among Republicans.13 [http://www.

com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] Moreover. Military outlays have increased dramatically since President George W. Much of the rest goes to foolish.forbes. Cato Institute fellow. military spending must come down.S. Citizenship p. such as Europe. .” Which is true. Washington devotes more money in real terms to the Pentagon today than during the Cold War. Few outlays go to the defense of America. Climate. Korean War. Hagel called the Pentagon “bloated” and said that spending needs “to be pared down. counterproductive nation-building in countries like Afghanistan and Iraq.13 General.14.13 [http://www.Planet Debate Politics 1. spends almost as much as the rest of the world combined. 18 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD HAGEL IS RIGHT ON DEFENSE SPENDING Doug Bandow.16. or Vietnam War. Guns. Debt. Today the U. 1. Hagel. South Korea. Bush turned into a fiscal liberal. Most goes to protect populous and prosperous allies. and Japan.

More than a decade later they have no idea why Americans are still dying.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] In this regard Hagel well-represents the American people. Thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died as a result of a lie propagated by self-serving Iraqi émigrés and advanced by war-promoting Neocon activists.forbes.14. Guns. democratic governance in Kabul. Citizenship p.16.Planet Debate Politics 1. There is no citizen support for intervening in Syria. which they recognize was terrible mistake. They supported destroying al-Qaeda for launching 9/11 and ousting the Taliban for harboring al-Qaeda.13 General.13 [http://www. There was no popular enthusiasm for President Obama‟s questionable adventure in Libya. Climate. 1. Hagel. . Backing for war with Iran likely would dissipate once the high costs became evident. 19 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD HAGEL’S VIEWS REFLECT PUBLIC OPINION ON INTERVENTION Doug Bandow. Cato Institute fellow. Americans also are tired of Afghanistan. Debt. apparently in a dubious attempt to promote honest. competent. They are angry after being lied to about the Iraq war.

Hagel. Unlike the war-happy Neocons. For this reason he proposes negotiation. even with diplomatic untouchables such as Hamas and Hezbollah.forbes. he understands—out of both personal experience and practical consequence—that war is best avoided. While recognizing that war can be necessary.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] It is hard to think of a better candidate to run the Pentagon under such circumstances than Chuck Hagel. Debt.13 [http://www. 20 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD HAGEL BELIEVES USE OF MILITARY IS A LAST RESORT Doug Bandow. 1. who could be the first enlisted man ever to end up as Defense Secretary. Guns. Cato Institute fellow. . Someone has to challenge the generals to rethink the status quo. He also is likely to bring a jaundiced eye to Pentagon budget-making.13 General.16.Planet Debate Politics 1. Climate. he sees military force as a last resort. if possible. isn‟t likely to be intimidated by someone with stars on his shoulders. Citizenship p. Hagel.14.

Unlike outgoing Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.com/story/2013/01/why-hagel-is-the-wrong-choice-to-lead-thepentagon-86098.13 [http://www. Changes in the president’s Cabinet presented a prime opportunity for coming together. coopted. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska to be America‟s next secretary of defense.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] Nevertheless. Debt. 1. Cato Institute fellow.13 [http://www. Climate.politico.forbes. and would be no Pentagon rubber stamp. Not Hagel. 21 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – UNCERTAIN – NEEDS POLITICAL CAPITAL OPPOSITION IS FIERCE – WILL TAKE POLITICAL CAPITAL FOR NOMINATION Doug Bandow. He fought in battle. Guns. Citizenship p. who was approved unanimously by the Senate. Instead of seeking consensus. R-Mississippi. The overriding objection to him is that he is the living refutation of everything the War Party stands for. as one would expect. understands the human cost. President Barack Obama has forced confrontation with the nomination of former Sen. better yet. Hagel. THE HAGEL NOMINATION WILL BE DIVISIVE Senator Roger Vicker. offers skepticism rather than enthusiasm for new interventions.html] The bitter tone of gridlock in Washington has left many Americans hoping for a more collaborative environment to face the country’s most pressing challenges.14. opposition to Hagel is fierce.14. .13 General.Planet Debate Politics 1. 1. Hagel is expected to provoke a divisive confirmation process — at a time when Congress should be focused on urgent budget issues that could dramatically change America’s defense strategy and capabilities. A liberal with no military experience and little confidence in military matters might be cowed or.16.

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HAGEL NOMINATION – NO IMPACT
HAGEL JUST REFLECTS OBAMA’S FOREIGN POLICY
John Arquilla, Foreign Policy, 1.14.13

[http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/14/for_defense_less_beef_more_chuck? wp_login_redirect=0] So, whether the issue is the surge in Iraq, the looming drawdown in Afghanistan, or the size of the defense budget, Hagel's views offer insights that all should hear -- and should spark useful, long-overdue debate about military and security affairs. His clear agreement with what I see to be an emergent Obama Doctrine makes it possible to pursue a consistent, quite innovative strategic path in this age of irregular wars. HAGEL WON’T FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE OBAMA’S MIDDLE EAST POLICY
John Zogby, president Arab American Institute, 1.14.13

[http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=56443] One thing should be clear, however, and that is if Hagel is confirmed there will not be a radical change in this Administration's approach to Israel or an American acceptance of an Iran with nuclear weapons. Hagel and Kerry, like Obama, are supporters of Israel. The Administration will continue to support that state's defense requirements and, in all likelihood, will not rush headlong into a new Middle East peace initiative since they appear to believe that conditions for that simply do not exist. At the same time, Israel will continue to face the U.S.'s growing displeasure with its occupation and settlement policies. And the Administration will not end its pressure on Iran to be more transparent with its nuclear ambitions and agree with international community's insistence that they forsake advanced enrichment. But the Obama Administration will now be fortified by a team that understands that engagement and not foolish adventurism is the best way to resolve the standoff while insuring that we not be dragged into another potentially devastating Middle East war.

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HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD
HAGEL WASN’T WRONG ABOUT THE IRAQ SURGE – IT DIDN’T WORK
Arianna Huffington, Huffington Post, 1.15.13

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/neocon-nightmare-thetrut_b_2478673.html] The relationship between Hagel and McCain goes back a long time. McCain was one of Hagel's earliest supporters and Hagel was one of the few who jumped on the "Straight Talk Express," back when McCain was taking on what he called "agents of intolerance" in the Republican Party. Unlike McCain, Hagel managed to stay on the Straight Talk Express. And now McCain is grasping at straws over Hagel's skepticism about success of the surge strategy in Iraq, something McCain finds "bizarre." Back when it was being considered, Hagel said "This is a Ping-Pong game with American lives," and that "we better be damn sure we know what we're doing, all of us, before we put 22,000 more Americans into that grinder." Since then it's become accepted gospel in Washington that the surge was successful. Accepted gospel that is, once again, wrong. Doug Ollivant was an army planning officer in Iraq who was one of those who actually implemented the surge. "The surge really didn't work, per se," Ollivant, now with the New America Foundation says, adding, "Fundamentally, it was the Iraqis trying to find a solution, and they did." A study by U.S. Special Forces officer Maj. Joshua Thiel came to the same conclusion. Thiel looked at where and when the additional surge troops were deployed and compared that to subsequent drops in violence. As Foreign Policy's Robert Haddick put it, Thiel concluded that there was no significant correlation between the arrival of U.S. reinforcements and subsequent changes in the level of violence in Iraq's provinces... the connection between surge troops and the change in the level of incidents seems entirely random.

Planet Debate Politics 1.16.13 General, Hagel, Guns, Climate, Debt, Citizenship

p. 24 of 62

HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD
HAGEL AVOIDS RECKLESS, IDEOLOGICAL POLICIES
John Zogby, president Arab American Institute, 1.14.13

[http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=56443] I know Chuck Hagel. He is a thoughtful and sober advocate of the realist approach to foreign policy. His priority has always been to defend America's interests in the world through diplomacy and, only when absolutely necessary, to commit American forces to combat missions in defense of those interests. By disposition, he has an aversion to ideologically-based reckless behavior. His criticism of the war in Iraq, his opposition to the reckless use of force against Iran, and his critique of Israeli actions that impede peace are wellknown. So too was his refusal while in the Senate to participate in AIPAC's frequent "hoop jumping" exercises. He resisted signing, as he termed them, the pro-Israel lobby's "stupid letters."

Planet Debate Politics 1.com/politics/schumer-to-back-hagel/2013/01/15/ffd46fc85f23-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story.washingtonpost. ―Senator Hagel rejected a strategy of containment and expressed the need to keep all options on the table in confronting that country. ―In our conversation. Guns. In a very detailed statement.13 General.‖ as its leaders like to assert.html] Schumer said that his support was sown up after Hagel — whom Obama formally nominated last week after a month of preparation — committed to several positions regarding Iran that met with Schumer‟s preference. Senator Hagel made a crystal-clear promise that he would do „whatever it takes‟ to stop Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Climate. Hagel had been unique in positions calling for direct talks the Iranian regime and opposing unilateral sanctions by the United States against the renegade regime.14 [http://www. including the use of military force. 25 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD – IRAN HAGEL WILL NOT BE SOFT ON IRAN Washington Post 1. Hagel also pledged to continue supporting the delivery of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to Israel and in general supported Israel’s right to a strong ―qualitative military edge.16. Hagel. Citizenship p.15.‖ Schumer said. He said his “top priority” as secretary of defense would be the planning of military contingencies related to Iran. . Debt. But he didn’t stop there. Schumer said Hagel left no doubt that he would support a very aggressive posture toward Tehran. As a two-term senator.

middle-east-online. And while I believe the president is committed and will fight for his nominee. On the other hand should Hagel stay the course. While I certainly hope that Hagel won't fold under the pressure. Guns. What is at stake for Republicans is far more than just Israel and Iran. but the outcome is far from certain. Climate. we know what the stakes are. forcing him to use the very shopworn language found the AIPAC letters he refused to sign when he served in the Senate.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 General. then we might well be on our way to a healthier political environment where realism trumps ideology and where honest political differences can be debated in our government without fear of retribution. into two failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (which they cannot admit were failures) and has them still advocating for more aggressive military engagements in Syria and Iran.13 [http://www.14. Hagel. It is the entire neo-conservative enterprise that led the U. The stakes are high. Their questions will.middle-east-online. but have no way of knowing how this will play out. 26 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – NOT CERTAIN HAGEL’S NOMINATION IS NOT A SURE THING John Zogby.14. president Arab American Institute. 1. They will try to beat him into submission. and should Democrats decide to choose to support their president instead of the lobby and the pressure from the neo-cons.16. Debt. Citizenship p. . Will Hagel fold? Will Obama surrender to pressure and pull his nominee.com/english/?id=56443] Republicans see the possibility of further weakening and distracting the president by "roughing up" his nominee and will in all likelihood subject Hagel to tough grilling when he finally appears before the Senate Armed Services Committee for confirmation. focus on his support for Israel and his attitudes toward Iran. They will want him to demonstrate that he is more committed to Israel and more hawkish on Iran than he has been in the past. 1. no doubt. OUTCOME ON HAGEL FAR FROM CERTAIN John Zogby. I am also prepared to acknowledge that Hagel's confirmation is not a sure thing.com/english/?id=56443] At this point.13 [http://www. president Arab American Institute. making clear his support for Israel while asserting his freedom and independence to criticize Israeli policies when necessary. risking defeat and embarrassment? Or will the Senate defeat Hagel's bid for confirmation? Any of these would be a setback of substantial proportions. I am bracing myself for a degree of disappointment.S.

Planet Debate Politics 1.politico. R-Mississippi.html] My opposition to this nomination stems in part from Hagel‟s flawed vision for America‟s role in the world and whether his selection signals a move toward a weaker defense by a second Obama administration. his nomination calls into question the national security priorities of the president‟s second term. Hagel’s decisions and statements have drawn significant concerns from Democrats and Republicans.14. the president seems to suggest that his approach will be to downplay American leadership rather than strengthen it. One is right to wonder whether Hagel‟s views on issues affecting the country‟s national security interests would shape his doctrine as defense secretary. Guns.com/story/2013/01/why-hagel-is-the-wrong-choice-to-lead-thepentagon-86098. . 1.13 [http://www.16. 27 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL BAD HAGEL AS DEFENSE SECRETARY WOULD BE A SIGN OF WEAKNESS Senator Roger Vicker. At the very least. Hagel. Climate. Citizenship p.13 General. In the past. In choosing Hagel. Debt.

’s commission is about to present a series of recommendations for new laws.13 [http://www. 28 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – BRINK OPPORTUNITY IS RIGHT NOW FOR GUN CONTROL New York Times 1. Conn. Citizenship p.16. Hagel.Planet Debate Politics 1. A month after the slaughter of 20 children and seven adults in Newtown. Climate. and it is vital that his panel gets it right and that Congress immediately takes action on its report.nytimes. Vice President Joseph Biden Jr.. Guns.html] The next few weeks represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity to harden the nation‟s gun laws and reduce the threat of rapid-fire violence in America. Debt.14. .com/2013/01/15/opinion/the-moment-for-action-on-gun-laws.13 General.

Requiring background checks at gun shows. need to enforce the system vigorously. This first proposal is one that Democrats believe has widespread support. and 18 other states have submitted fewer than 100. Debt. now that the Internet has made it easy for private individuals to buy and sell guns without screening. That’s an exception.. said at an event Monday at the liberal Center for American Progress (CAP).Planet Debate Politics 1. ―When you’ve got 40 percent of the guns that are going out [not receiving background checks]. no matter who it’s from. The reason that both the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and Mayors Against Illegal Guns have made universal background checks their top priority is that 40 percent of gun sales now take place privately.” This recommendation requires strong legislative language to require states to contribute information toward national databases used for assessing whether an individual should be allowed to purchase a weapon.14.nytimes.csmonitor. UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS WILL CUT GUN VIOLENCE Christian Science Monitor 1. And it would have no effect on law-abiding buyers who want a hunting rifle or a handgun to keep at home.html] The need for background checks on every gun buyer has never been greater. Such a law should be supplemented by a presidential order requiring federal and state agencies to contribute to the background check system with criminal and mental health information. Federal prosecutors. according to CAP. you have to pass a background check. Guns. is essential. 29 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – CONTROL WORKS UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE New York Times 1. who have a dismal record of pursuing charges against those who lie on a gun application. ―Shutting that exemption. that’s not a loophole. 10 states have submitted a grand total of zero names to the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System..com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0114/How-totackle-gun-violence-5-things-liberal-groups-want] Universal background checks. It is largely supported by legitimate gun dealers. putting buyers on notice that their sale is being recorded and can be traced. who already have to conduct the checks and have long grumbled about competition from those who do not. Obama’s former chief of staff.14.13 [http://www. Climate. parking-lot sales and Web sites would reduce the cashand-carry anonymity of millions of gun transactions.13 [http://www. At present. even among Republican lawmakers: If you buy a gun. private sellers make up about 40 percent of weapon transfers in the US every year. What’s known in some places as the ―gun show loophole‖ means that those barred from buying guns by other statutes can effectively circumvent those laws by obtaining a weapon from a private weapons dealer. Citizenship p.com/2013/01/15/opinion/the-moment-for-action-on-gun-laws. Hagel.13 General. Currently. including most guns that are later used in crimes.16. .‖ Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.

16. 1. ABC News. Guns.” legislation to expand background checks. Obama is reviewing the recommendations of Vice President Biden’s task force. and could outline his plan publicly as early as Wednesday.13 [http://abcnews. Climate. Debt. setting the stage for what could be the largest Congressional battle over gun legislation in decades.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 General. Conn.. which were delivered to him on Monday.15. Citizenship p.go. also known as the “assault weapons ban. One month after the deadly school shooting in Newtown. 30 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – OBAMA WILL PUSH OBAMA WILL PROPOSE BROAD GUN CONTROL MEASURES Mary Bruce. Obama has already promised to push for a renewal of the 1994 ban on some types of semiautomatic assault rifles. Hagel. . and limits on highcapacity magazine clips.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/obama-to-unveil-road-map-to-halt-gunviolence/] President Obama is expected to detail a broad plan this week to curb gun violence.

1.Planet Debate Politics 1. gives only a single broad sentence to the subject in its policy recommendations: ―Limit the availability of military-style weapons and high capacity ammunition magazines that are designed for mass killing.13 [http://www. 31 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – OBAMA NEEDS POLITICAL STRENGTH OBAMA WILL FACE FIERCE OPPOSITION ON GUN VIOLENCE Mary Bruce. Feinstein and other Democratic Senators plan to introduce legislation to this effect early in the new session of Congress. Citizenship p. including the National Rifle Association which has already vowed to oppose efforts to limit access to guns and ammunition. one of the most outspoken advocates for increased gun control. Dianne Feinstein (D) of California that would halt the ―sale. Climate. it would freeze ownership of weapons like that used in the Newtown. CAP endorsed a proposal by Sen.go. RESTRICTING ASSAULT WEAPONS IS HIGHLY CONTROVERSIAL Christian Science Monitor 1. ABC News. massacre at its current level. importation and manufacturing of military-style assault weapons and highcapacity ammunition feeding devices.‖ In other words. Conn..com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0114/How-totackle-gun-violence-5-things-liberal-groups-want] Restrict the sale of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines If background checks enjoy the most consensus. Hagel. transfer.‖ But others have been a bit more specific at reviving a policy created under President Bill Clinton but allowed to lapse under President George W.13 [http://abcnews. what to do about restricting access to assault weapons is perhaps the most controversial.csmonitor.15.14.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/obama-to-unveil-road-map-to-halt-gunviolence/] The most contentious items on the president‟s to-do list will require Congressional approval and are expected to face fierce opposition from gun rights groups. Debt.16. . The Brady Campaign. Bush. Guns.13 General.

Debt.5165926.0.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-guns20130115.13 [http://www.14.story] Two polls released Monday found broad public support for stronger background check laws. Guns.Planet Debate Politics 1. Hagel. where they are not currently required. Climate. Much slimmer majorities expressed support for two other policy options mentioned by Obama — banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. .13 General. 32 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – PUBLIC SUPPORTS CONTROL PUBLIC SUPPORTS SPECIFICS OF GUN CONTROL Los Angeles Times 1.16. including sales at gun shows. A Washington Post-ABC News survey and another by the Pew Research Center found that more than 80% of respondents want federal background checks to be conducted for private gun sales.latimes. Citizenship p.

Blocking it because it doesn't also do the broad amnesty that liberals want and conservatives hate would require the kind of fanaticism that is the exact opposite of Obama's approach to politics. After all. more enforcement. If Republicans want to get serious about it they should be able to make it work. and it seems to me that there's a fair chance that a nimble Republican Party could essentially roll the Democratic coalition and pass an "immigration reform" bill that doesn't offer the path Latino advocacy groups are looking for. The centerpiece would be something on increased immigration of skilled workers.slate. Slate. Citizenship p.13 General.13 [http://www.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/15/immigration_reform_will_obama_g et_rolled. Slate. why would they block it? It packages three things—more skilled immigration.16. Climate. For the major immigration-advocacy groups. and few influential people have any real beef with it. 33 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – GOP CAN DEFEAT GOP COMPROMISES SHORT OF A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP COULD DEFEAT IT Matthew Yglesias. but that I think Democrats will have a hard time actually blocking. 1.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/15/immigration_reform_will_obama_g et_rolled. . Not the broad path to citizenship. and help for DREAMers—they say they want. REPUBLICANS COULD BLOCK THE PATH TO CITIZENSHIP Matthew Yglesias.Planet Debate Politics 1. That's something the tech industry wants very much. Now you've got a package that falls massively short of what Latino groups are looking for. you need to add a sweetener. but something small like the DREAM Act.slate. High tech visas will easily generate revenue to pay for some stepped-up enforcement. the goal is clear. it's a great idea on the merits.html] Of the major policy issues under discussion in Washington. "immigration reform" stands out for having unusually undefined content.15. Then instead of adding on a poison pill so Democrats will block the bill. Hagel.15. Guns. Debt.13 [http://www.html] The last House GOP effort to split the high-tech visas question from the path to citizenship question was an absurd partisan ploy. But many other aspects of immigration law are in the mix as part of a proposed deal. 1. a comprehensive bill that includes a path to citizenship for the overwhelming majority of unauthorized migrants already living in the United States.

So there's less chance for hyper-partisan politics. this is the time.” said Consumer Electronics Association President and CEO Gary Shapiro at a POLITICO Pro Tech Deep Dive focused on the 113th Congress. Debt. too. It's also a new Congress. . that they're willing to support a comprehensive immigration package. who blocked major congressional immigration legislation in 2010 and 2006.com/2013/1/15/rubio_obama_diazbalart_roslehtinen_jeb_bush.Com 1. OBAMA WILL GET IMMIGRATION REFORM – EASIER THAN HEALTH CARE WAS Steve Friess.13 [www. Labor unions. Politico. Diaz-Balart said.15. Hagel. A major fault-line: Whether to give illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship or a pathway to residency.Planet Debate Politics 1. Diaz-Balart said because it's not an election year.13 General.16. might be more willing to vote for immigration-reform plans as the lessons of 2012's elections are still fresh. however. Still. Citizenship p. 1. And Republicans. which tend to support Democrats. ―If President Obama can get health care reform through as divisive as it was.htm] Diaz-Balart and Ros-Lehtinen say this is the year that Congress needs to pass immigration reform. Unions now indicate. Ros-Lehtinen pointed out that Democrats. have opposed guest-worker immigration programs in the past because they allow for an influx of cheap labor from overseas.hispanicbusiness. Climate. have had problems with their voters when it comes to immigration reform. Guns.com/story/2013/01/obama-immigration-reform-congress86210. he can get immigration reform done. too.politico.13 [http://www. 34 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – WILL PASS PAST OPPONENTS OF CIR NOW LIKELY TO SUPPORT Marc Caputo.15. HispanicBusiness.html] A top technology lobbyist said Tuesday he believes President Barack Obama has the savvy and political skill to navigate an immigration bill through even a divided Congress.

George Washington Univ. five factors are operative: Awaiting lame duck status: Second-term presidents normally have a short window of time to pass serious legislation before Congress picks up the mantle and starts driving the agenda. While President Obama clearly had the upper hand politically in the tax debate.13 General. Reaching an agreement takes time and requires each side to give. Guns. President Obama moved on taxes from a $250. Compromise requires an effort from both sides. By choosing to focus more on the subsidiary goal of raising rates than on the primary goal of raising revenue to reduce deficits. Citizenship p.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718. will be addressed in the manner he outlines in his upcoming inaugural address. 1. Professor political management.13 [http://www.13 [http://www.15. Resolving the even more contentious matter of reducing spending in such a pestilent environment is sure to consume much time and energy.15. Republicans were forced to accept that they could not extend tax breaks for everyone.000 threshold to one of $450. just as we witnessed in the tax debate. George Washington Univ. .huffingtonpost. The sparse result of months of partisan wrestling over the fiscal cliff portends a reduced likelihood that any of President Obama's second-term priorities. the lever of the debt ceiling tilts the playing field back to even when it comes to resolving the new cliff that looms just two months away. Climate. 1.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718. the president chose politics over policy. Professor political management. Debt.Planet Debate Politics 1. including immigration reform.16. Partisan poisoning: One of the reasons a grand bargain was not reached was that President Obama was most intent on winning a partisan victory over Republicans on raising tax rates. further souring relations with Congress.huffingtonpost.000.html] Serious immigration reform will be addressed later and will be narrower than some may hope. Continuing fiscal cliff battles: One consequence of not reaching a grand bargain on the fiscal cliff is that it ensures that further contests over how to resolve the nation's ongoing deficits will suck much of the oxygen out of the most opportune time slot for legislative action: the period immediately following the president's inaugural address and the State of the Union address. 35 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – WON’T PASS OBAMA WILL COMPROMISE ON CIR DUE TO TIMING AND PARTISANSHIP Mark Kennedy.html] With a focus on the timing and the shape of immigration reform. Hagel. FISCAL CLIFF PROVES THE PRESIDENT WILL HAVE TO NEGOTIATE ON CIR Mark Kennedy.

15. George Washington Univ. LIKE THE PLAN. but all cannot be done at once. Adding gun reform to the mix. 36 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – INTERNAL LINK – AGENDA CROWDING ADDING ISSUES TO THE AGENDA.Planet Debate Politics 1. Guns.13 [http://www. RISKS CROWDING OUT CIR Mark Kennedy. a president must prioritize and avoid cluttering the playing field with numerous other initiatives at the same time. Debt. Citizenship p. In his first inaugural address President Obama laid out a broad agenda but failed to achieve results until he narrowed his focus to health-care reform. Hagel. . Professor political management.html] Lack of focus: In order to really drive the direction of a major reform effort. will decrease the likelihood of action on other priorities and will elevate the level of partisan rancor. 1.16.13 General. Climate.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718.huffingtonpost. immigration and tax reform legislation are all desperately needed. Clearly energy. regardless of its merits.

huffingtonpost. Founder.13 General. 1. Guns. Meanwhile. with evident success. Democrats are more united than ever on immigration and are determined to make Republicans play or pay. Debt. 37 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – INEVITABLE CIR WILL PASS – IT’S INEVITABLE DUE TO POLITICAL INCENTIVES Frank Sharry. Hagel. This is what Harry Reid in Nevada and Michael Bennet in Colorado did in 2010.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025.13 [http://www. In 2012 President Obama showed that it could work on a national scale.Planet Debate Politics 1. (Read the new America's Voice report on immigration lessons from the 2012 elections for more 2012 analysis). . movement conservatives and Republican leaders alike are seeing the demographic writing on the wall and calling for the GOP to embrace immigration reform. Citizenship p. They know that the party faces an existential crisis: The GOP has to regain its competitiveness with Hispanic voters or go the way of the Whigs. What does this mean for 2013 and 2014? It means that the president will make immigration reform his top post-fiscalcliff legislative priority. Climate.16.html] For Democrats this proved that the best way to deal with this so-called Republican wedge issue is not to run from it but to lean into it. America’s Voice.15.

The bottom line: Immigration reform is an idea whose time has come.13 General. he will feel at least as much pressure from others on the right. America’s Voice. Democrats have promised it and Republicans need it. Citizenship p. will be championed by the president.Planet Debate Politics 1.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025.html] So what is likely to happen? A broad legislative proposal. Once again Speaker Boehner will find a bipartisan majority in the House. with bipartisan support. Climate. Americans want it. Then it will be up to the House of Representatives. 38 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – INEVITABLE REPUBLICAN OPPOSITION WILL BE OVERCOME BY OUTSIDE GROUPS – CIR WITH A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP IS INEVITABLE Frank Sharry. 1. one that puts 11 million undocumented immigrants on the road to citizenship. a bipartisan breakthrough in the Senate could send those numbers as high as 3 to 1.13 [http://www. drafted on a bipartisan basis and approved by the Senate. With comprehensive immigration reform favored by the public by a 2-to-1 margin. Debt. In the end the House leadership will find a way. Founder. such as business executives." And while he will feel pressure from some on the hard right to resist reform. Guns. sometime this spring.16. Hagel. law enforcement officials. Latino Republicans and conservative thought leaders.huffingtonpost. but not if he insists on a "majority of the majority. evangelicals.15. They simply will not want to bear the blame for keeping the Senate and the White House out of reach for Republicans for a generation. .

com/news/the-road-forward] Last week. the enforcement-is-working argument was bolstered by a report from the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute. before other elements of immigration reform. but not sufficiently touting its record of doing so. Enforcing the border. an author of the report and a former commissioner of the U.13 [http://www. but Republicans are still calling for more before they will consider reform. Going down that road. check.15. Climate.' We're there. said she hopes putting out more information can add to the immigration debate. . while leaving out more contentious items such as a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. which found that the government is pouring more money into its immigration agencies than the other federal law-enforcement efforts combined. Yet the administration has been by many measures the strictest ever on immigration enforcement. The Huffington Post. 39 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – ALREADY DONE BORDER ENFORCEMENT BORDER ENFORCEMENT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED – THIS GETS BY ONE OF THE GOP’S KEY ISSUES ON CIR Elise Foley. Hagel." STUDIES PROVE WE’VE PRIORITIZED BORDER ENFORCEMENT ALREADY Elise Foley. the White House has learned.huffingtonpost. and Doris Meissner. Republicans have demanded that the border be secured first.15. a senior administration official said the White House believes it has met enforcement goals and must now move to a comprehensive solution." the official said. Debt. There are some clear metrics to point to on the border in particular.13 General. such as an enforcement mechanism and high-skilled worker visas. Immigration and Naturalization Service. 1. The border is as secure as it's been in a generation or two.13 [http://www.S.Planet Debate Politics 1. 1. the White House worries. won't be enough to win over Republicans. "Enforcement is certainly part of the picture. it's like 'check. although there is always more to be done.huffingtonpost.com/news/the-road-forward] It starts with a lesson from his first term. The administration is highly skeptical of claims from Republicans that immigration reform can or should be done in a piecemeal fashion.' and then you look at what we're actually doing. so it's really time. Guns.16. The White House has met many of the desired metrics for border security. check. "But if you go back and look at the 2006 and 2007 bills. could result in passage of the less politically complicated pieces. The Huffington Post. and devotes massive sums to policing the borders. Citizenship p. In a briefing with The Huffington Post. if you go back and look at John McCain's 10-point 'This is what I've got to get done before I'm prepared to talk about immigration.

Debt.13 General.13 [http://www. It would likely involve fines. English tests and "going to the back of the line. Climate. 40 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – OBAMA WILL PUSH THE PATH TO CITIZENSHIP WILL BE NON-NEGOTIABLE FOR OBAMA Elise Foley.16. Citizenship p. 1. It wouldn't be the "amnesty" decried by some on the right. and it will be a non-negotiable in his plan. . Hagel.15. Guns.com/news/the-road-forward] Citizenship will be another major question.Planet Debate Politics 1.huffingtonpost. The Huffington Post. Obama has consistently said that a path to citizenship is vital to immigration reform." which means waiting for possibly a long. long time.

The Huffington Post.hispanicbusiness. Rep. rejects the findings of the Migration Policy Institute and fears that reform might not prevent future swells in unauthorized immigration -. Such concerns allow some Republicans to draw a hard line on the idea of citizenship for the undocumented.16. executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies. of any new policy and the major sticking point for many.htm] But the complexity.15.a key goal. Hagel. The polarized Congress could barely stave off the so-called "fiscal cliff" debt-andspending controversy last month. 41 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – NOT INEVITABLE FINAL PASSAGE OF CIR IS STILL POLITICALLY UNCERTAIN Elise Foley.13 General. Conservatives who stress the “enforcement first” approach don‟t think so. Climate.huffingtonpost. Republicans in Congress. They note that the administration has in some cases decided not to deport undocumented immigrants it detects. It's unclear now if 2013 is any different. Conservatives see too much of what they regard as lenience in Obama's actions to date. a key figure in the ongoing debate and the former head of the House Judiciary Committee. 1. Conservatives point to the deferred action policy for young undocumented immigrants and guidelines that put a low priority on removing some other categories of immigrants.13 [www.com/2013/1/15/rubio_obama_diazbalart_roslehtinen_jeb_bush. .13 [http://www. Mark Krikorian. Lamar Smith (R-Texas). "I don't think the basic reality has changed. STILL NO GUARANTEE THAT 2013 IS THAT DIFFERENT ON CIR Marc Caputo. HispanicBusiness. after all. if not most.15." Krikorian said of immigration politics.Planet Debate Politics 1. Guns. said on Monday that Congress shouldn't trust the president on "mass amnesty" and that a bill including citizenship "will have a hard time" in the House. Citizenship p.Com 1.com/news/the-road-forward] It's not clear whether the politics have changed enough for a bill to pass. although the percentage of criminals being deported has gone up. Debt. the emotions and the host of special interests involved in the immigration debate have paralyzed Congress for years.

And it will require market incentives. are simply not yet ready to compete with fossil fuels. you will need to rally the nation around the issue of tackling climate change. from increasing funding for energy R&D to helping establish facilities where companies can share the costs and risks of testing new technologies. 42 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – OBAMA CAN BOOST RENEWABLES OBAMA’S CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES CAN BOOST RENEWABLE ENERGY Technology Review.16.13 [http://www. Citizenship p. 1.13 General. for example. Creating cleaner ways to produce energy will require inventions in physics and chemistry labs and innovations in how we scale up and test those inventions. such as a tax or some other price on carbon dioxide emissions. Only with broad public support can you hope to push a recalcitrant Congress into passing legislation that will establish some form of carbon pricing. Climate. Solar power. like solar and advanced biofuels. Guns. We need new and far more advanced technologies. under most circumstances. still generates less than 1 percent of our nation’s electricity and. Hagel. to encourage consumers and industry to use clean energy.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-dealwith-climate-change/] Renewable energy sources.2. Open Letter to President Obama. Your administration can play a critical role in each of these areas. remains much more expensive than electricity generated from fossil fuels. Debt. . Perhaps most important.technologyreview.Planet Debate Politics 1.

Already. The inexpensive energy made available by these drilling activities is good news for the overall economy. Hagel. Guns.technologyreview.13 [http://www. Open Letter to President Obama.2. . Climate. Citizenship p. 1. including natural gas and related deposits of shale oil.13 General. Debt.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-dealwith-climate-change/] Adding to our difficulties is the recent boom in our country’s production of fossil fuels.Planet Debate Politics 1. 43 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – RENEWABLES NOT GROWING NATURAL GAS AND SHALE OIL DISCOVERIES ARE UNDERCUTTING RENEWABLE ENERGY Technology Review.16. the glut of cheap natural gas created by advanced drilling technologies and by the nation‟s vast supply of shale gas has made it difficult for renewable energy to compete on price. but it is also a stark reminder that the motive for adopting non-fossil fuels is not market-driven but is—and always has been—a simple one: we must do it to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and begin stabilizing our climate.

Planet Debate Politics 1. 1. Debt. Climate. To have a decent chance of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2 °C and avoiding the most devastating effects of climate change. Open Letter to President Obama. You have the power and the opportunity to lay the groundwork for a new clean-energy policy that will help us avoid the worst consequences of climate change. we can no longer wait without risking dramatic upheavals in global security and the health and welfare of hundreds of millions of the world‟s inhabitants. It is quite possible that if this is not done over the next four years. like you.13 General.technologyreview. it will be too late. you have a chance to take risks.2.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-dealwith-climate-change/] But as extensive and exacting analyses over the last decade have shown. we will need carbon emissions to peak at no more than 32.6 metric gigatons in 2011. The president who takes office that year will thus be facing a far more urgent problem—probably. and to start falling no later than 2017. The International Energy Agency reports that global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record 31. Hagel.13 [http://www. with no political consensus on how to solve it. But as a president in his final term. Guns.16.6 metric gigatons. . 44 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – OBAMA KEY TO CLIMATE CHANGE OBAMA’S TERM WILL BE DECISIVE IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE BATTLE Technology Review. Citizenship p.

nationaljournal. rising sea levels. worse destruction is on the way. Guns. federal agencies concluded that rising temperatures caused by fossil fuel emissions have directly contributed to increased wildfires.S.Planet Debate Politics 1. The National Journal.13 [http://www. a new draft report by 13 U. Obama heard a wailing siren warning him to stick to his pledge: On Monday. It was also the nation‟s second-most-extreme year for destructive weather events. 1. Hagel. Climate.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] This week. 45 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – GOVERNMENT ACTION NECESSARY NEW REPORTS SHOW GOVERNMENT ACTION NECESSARY TO PREVENT CLIMATE CHANGE Coral Davenport. . Scientists said the evidence is unequivocal that the heat and catastrophic weather are linked to climate change caused by fossil-fuel pollution—and that without governmental action to stop that pollution.11. Citizenship p.13 General. the spread of insecttransmitted disease. On Friday. melting glaciers and decreasing water supply across the U. Debt. with 11 disasters sustaining $1 billion each in economic losses.S.S.16. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that 2012 was by far the hottest year on record in the contiguous U.

There is no way. And in 2015. to meet its commitment internationally. IN THE NEXT YEAR WILL BE KEY TO GLOBAL LEADERSHIP ON CLIMATE CHANGE Coral Davenport. that the U. let alone sign on with any credibility to a future global treaty.S. And if the United States—historically. 1. Obama signed an accord pledging that the U. binding global treaty to cut carbon emissions enough to stave off the most catastrophic effects of climate change.S.nationaljournal.13 [http://www. Climate. can meet its existing climate pledge. It will make it very difficult for the U. experts say. director of the climate and energy program at the World Resources Institute. there‟s no reason to expect the rest of the world‟s nations to live up to their obligations. ―If the U.13 General.S. Debt. Citizenship p.‖ said Jennifer Morgan. without either a new climate law from Congress or new EPA rules on existing power plants.S. The rest of the world is awaiting action from Washington. The National Journal.11. At a 2009 United Nations summit.‖ .com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] But the president doesn‟t have the luxury of time.16. then other countries can hide behind the U. would reduce its carbon pollution 17 percent by 2020. Hagel. Guns. the largest globalwarming polluter—fails to show it can meet its climate pledge.S. a think tank.Planet Debate Politics 1.S.S. ―The new regulations on existing plants are going to be essential for the U. the nations of the world are scheduled to come together to sign a landmark. 46 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – OBAMA GLOBAL LEADERSHIP ACTION BY THE U. to have any credibility or influence. is seen as not acting.

Planet Debate Politics 1.13 [http://www. 1.6% drop in electricity related emissions at the UN climate talks in Doha last month but rising shale gas prices are making coal cost competitive again.10. 47 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – COAL COMING BACK RISING SHALE PRICES MAKING COAL COMPETITIVE AGAIN – COAL CARBON EMISSIONS WILL START TO RISE John Parnell. Hagel. and emission levels will surely follow. Now those figures are heading up again. Citizenship p. Responding to Climate Change. Climate. Debt. Guns. In 2011 Coal’s share fell below 40% for the first time since 1978. . Climate change envoy Todd Stern hailed the 8.13 General.rtcc.org/coal-comeback-threatens-obamas-climate-change-policy/] New figures released this week by the Energy information Administration (EIA) reveal that the use of coal by power plants is increasing again after being displaced by cheap domestic shale gas in recent years. Coal emits around twice the CO2 of natural gas per unit of energy generated as well as generating greater levels of other pollutants that damage human health.16.

Climate. Guns.org/coal-comeback-threatens-obamas-climate-change-policy/] The focus of the War on Coal accusations. Hagel.13 [http://www. cheaper gas. is jobs at coal power stations. .‖ said Energy and Power Subcommittee Chairman Ed Whitfield (R-KY) Georgia Power is replacing this coal capacity with two new nuclear reactors creating 5000 jobs during construction and 800 permanent positions afterwards.16.13 General. ―This retirement announcement by Georgia Power is disappointing yet unsurprising. led by vocal climate change skeptic Fred Upton’s Energy and Commerce Committee. creating 2000 jobs along the way. Two coal plants are also being converted by the company to burn cleaner. Already.Planet Debate Politics 1. we have seen a number of coal plants fall victim to the Obama administration’s assault on coal and I would not be surprised if there are even more closures in the months ahead. Responding to Climate Change. Citizenship p. 48 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – COAL REGULATIONS HELP THE ECONOMY REPLACING COAL PLANTS INCREASES JOBS John Parnell.rtcc. The latest press release by the committee states that Georgia Power is closing 15 coal units putting 500 jobs on the line. Debt.10. 1.

in part due to carbon taxes on cars.11.13 General.blogs. ―This is a way to secure competitiveness in the future. gas and even garbage. Debt.‖ Connie Hedegaard.4 percent in of gross domestic product in 2010 to 8. .13 [http://rendezvous. made the basic case that high carbon taxes on gasoline would lead to more fuel-efficient cars. and they seem to have adapted by driving substantially more efficient vehicles. in an opinion piece last year. Frank. Motorists in many countries already pay that much more than Americans do. Dr.” An excellent article on Ireland‟s carbon tax boon points to the other part of the equation — despite three years of recession. of Cornell University. Elisabeth Rosenthal reported late last year that Ireland’s deficit has decreased from 32. the Irish government is managing to balance its books. for example. 49 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – CARBON TAX HELPS ECONOMY CARBON TAX WOULD ENCOURAGE FUEL ECONOMY AND GREEN REVENUES Christopher Schuetze.Planet Debate Politics 1.16.nytimes. Guns. the European Union’s commissioner for climate action. Climate. Hagel.3 percent of GDP in 2012 in part due to a new taxes on carbon — despite the economic downturn. suggested that a carbon tax of $300 for a ton of carbon emissions might be enough to structurally change the kind of cars Americans drive. Frank. would slowly rise by somewhat less than $3 a gallon. 1. said in an interview with Elisabeth. Citizenship p. International Herald Tribune. He wrote: ―The price of gasoline.com/2013/01/11/carbon-taxes-provoke-debate-oneconomic-impact/] The economist Robert H.

50 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – CARBON TAX HURTS ECONOMY CARBON TAX HURTS SMALL BUSINESSES IN AUSTRALIA Christopher Schuetze. 1. Hagel.16.11. In a climate of already suppressed retail spending.blogs. Russell Zimmerman. Climate. International Herald Tribune. Guns. the head of the retail organization wrote in a statement: “The introduction of carbon pricing was a massive legislative change for small business and one which has had a significant impact. it can make transport. Debt.com/2013/01/11/carbon-taxes-provoke-debate-oneconomic-impact/] Opponents of carbon taxes are not sure about that claim to competitiveness.13 [http://rendezvous. Last month. the cost of doing business has gone up for retailers due to higher utility bills and costs accumulated throughout the supply chain.13 General. the Australian Retailers Association released results of a survey in which they found that 80 percent of Australian retailers say their business has been negatively affected by the new carbon taxes in place in that country since July of 2012. utilities and production costs go up.Planet Debate Politics 1. retailers are taking the hit of the carbon tax as consumers bypass the stores to pay household bills. Depending on where the carbon tax is applied. Meanwhile. which eventually fall onto retailers’ bottom lines…‖ .nytimes. Citizenship p.

lured by the prospect of abundant and cheap natural gas. which comes at a time when many companies.heritage. Heritage Foundation. Economics Research Fellow. The result is higher energy costs. LESS COMPETITIVE David Kreutzer. a tax that increases energy prices would disproportionately affect the budgets of the poorest American families. Hagel. would likely pass those costs on to consumers. CARBON TAX WOULD MAKE THE U.org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] In particular.org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] Since an overwhelming majority of America's energy needs are met by carbon-emitting fossil fuels. A recent KPMG analysis of the U. Heritage Foundation. and fewer jobs. if a company had to absorb the costs. diesel fuel.8. are moving to the United States. gasoline. thus depriving fossil-fuel-based companies much-needed cash for more efficient power generation. chemical industry emphasizes.13 [http://www.13 General. Businesses.heritage. Since low-income families spend a larger proportion of their income on energy." A carbon tax would unnecessarily reverse this resurgence. lower income. Guns. 1. However. energy-intensive industries and manufacturing would feel the adverse effects of a carbon tax. regulations of these fuels directly raise the cost of electricity. Citizenship p.Planet Debate Politics 1.S.S. Investors might even move their funds away from energy companies and toward less regulated business enterprises.8. Climate. .16. faced with higher energy costs. 51 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – CARBON TAX HURTS ECONOMY A CARBON TAX WOULD DAMAGE THE ECONOMY David Kreutzer. Economics Research Fellow. 1. the US market has transformed to become one of the most advantageous markets for chemical production in the world.13 [http://www. "With a new and abundant source of low-cost feedstock. and home heating oil. high energy costs would squeeze profit margins and prevent businesses from investing and expanding. Debt.

would do next to nothing to reduce global temperatures. CARBON TAX WOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON GLOBAL EMISSIONS David Kreutzer. Economics Research Fellow. . This is because future carbon emissions will come overwhelmingly from the developing world (China and India. consequently.13 [http://www. 52 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – NO CARBON TAX SOLVENCY U. 1. Debt.16.Planet Debate Politics 1. Heritage Foundation.heritage. Guns. Citizenship p. it would reduce global temperatures by only a few tenths of a degree Celsius by the close of the century. which shows little appetite for squeezing economic growth for the sake of the environment.S.S. Climate. Even if the U.8. for example).13 General. Hagel.org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] Unilaterally reducing greenhouse gases would not make a dent on global emissions and. were to curb carbon emissions 83 percent below 2005 levels by 2050 (what cap-and-trade bills required).

Planet Debate Politics 1. Despite actions taken by the EPA to regulate carbon dioxide. reliable electricity (especially since many areas do not even have access to electricity) and have more pressing environmental needs. Developing countries want access to cheap. It is simply wishful thinking to assume that these countries would follow America's lead and curb economic growth to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Debt.heritage. 1. Climate. the developing world has massive expansions planned to increase coal consumption. Guns. According to a recent report from the World Resources Institute.200 coal-fired power plants in 59 different countries totaling over 1. Hagel. Economics Research Fellow. But this is clearly not the case.13 [http://www.13 General. SOLVENCY AMERICAN INFLUENCE ON OTHER EMISSIONS IS WISHFUL THINKING David Kreutzer.S. 53 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – NO U.4 million megawatts.S.8. leads in reducing emissions.16.org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] A common argument is that if the U. China and India alone account for 76 percent of the proposals. . Citizenship p. Heritage Foundation. the rest of the world would follow suit. there are plans to build nearly 1.

possibly costing jobs in the process. ―In terms of actual real emissions. .16. The question the administration is grappling with is when to roll out the rule. either in Congress or in the courts. Climate. 1.” said Frank O‟Donnell.13 [http://www. Guns.nationaljournal. It will also be met with an avalanche of efforts by industry and lawmakers to overturn it.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] Under the terms of a Supreme Court ruling and the nation‟s clean-air laws.Planet Debate Politics 1. Debt. The rule could have a profound environmental impact by reducing the nation‟s global-warming pollutants by up to 20 percent. Citizenship p. 54 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE .CLIMATE CHANGE – REGULATION HAS HUGE BENEFIT OBAMA CAN ENACT A MAJOR GREENHOUSE POLLUTANT REDUCTION REGULATION WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL Coral Davenport.11. The National Journal. such as coal-fired power plants and oil refineries. Hagel. this is the mother of all climate rules. president of the advocacy group Clean Air Watch. to slash their emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming. the Environmental Protection Agency is required to issue a regulation that will force existing industrial polluters. The new limits will ignite raging political opposition from the nation’s most powerful fossil-fuel interests and likely lead to the shutdown of many of the dirtiest coal plants.13 General.

1.000 small businesses sent Obama a letter urging him to use his executive authority to enact climate regulations on existing polluters.13 General. This week. Guns. Citizenship p.11. . Debt. The National Journal.13 [http://www. And advocates know it. 55 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE .nationaljournal.” On Friday. 150. insisting that Obama has “the authority under existing law to achieve urgently needed reductions in the carbon pollution that is disrupting our climate and damaging our health. That excuse is now gone.CLIMATE CHANGE – PRESSURE TO ENACT REGULATIONS OUTSIDE GROUPS WILL PRESSURE OBAMA TO ENACT STRICT CLIMATE CHANGE REGULATIONS ON CARBON POLLUTERS Coral Davenport. 70 environmental organizations sent a letter to the White House.16. in a rare show of unity.Planet Debate Politics 1. Hagel.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] The Obama administration has sat on the rule affecting existing polluters for months to avoid issuing a potential job-killer in an election year. Climate.

Climate. inasmuch as many economies are tied to that of the United States. Citizenship p. But others say a sudden selloff would be damaging to other countries' economic interests. there is little that China or any other country can do to influence the outcome.cn/epaper/2013-01/15/content_16120098.16. Some analysts believe a loss of confidence in US debt.13 General.htm] Despite the stakes.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 [http://usa. Debt. much less a debt default by Washington. inducing others to follow and causing a run on the dollar in world markets. The report also cites long-term concerns of some US officials that persistent volatility in the dollar caused by a debt default would bolster calls in the international community to end its status as the world's reserve currency.com." he said. "While the entire world will suffer if the negotiations reach a standoff. China and the rest of the world are basically bystanders in the fiscal-policy drama playing out in the US. Guns. 56 of 62 DEBT CEILING – DOLLAR IMPACT DEBT DEFAULT WOULD RISK ABANDONMENT OF THE DOLLAR China Daily 1. . Prasad said.15. according to a report by the Council on Foreign Relations.chinadaily. Hagel. could prompt foreign creditors to unload large portions of their holdings.

As a bipartisan litany of mainstream economists have warned. furious that in the recent tussle over the ―fiscal cliff‖ they caved in on tax increases and have no spending cuts to show for it.15. 57 of 62 DEBT CEILING – IMPACT THREATS TO DEFAULT ARE WEAPONS OF MASS FINANCIAL DESTRUCTION The Economist 1. Citizenship p.12. the debt ceiling has been an annoyance.Planet Debate Politics 1.com/news/leaders/21569423-debt-ceiling-america-serves-nouseful-purpose-and-should-be-abolished-cliff] Most of the time.economist. In the summer of 2011 Republicans openly used the threat of default to force Mr Obama and Democrats into a deficit-cutting deal. But as American politics has become more polarised. Climate. war-fighting expenses. . Defiant Democrats are floating crackpot responses such as issuing a $1 trillion coin to avoid the debt ceiling or invoking the 14th amendment to the constitution. it has become an instrument of mass financial destruction. Hagel.org/2013/01/15/will-us-house-refuse-to-pay-nations-bills-allowdefault/] The consequences of refusing a debt limit increase are very real.13 [http://www.16. Debt. Guns. highways. and on K-12 education.13 General. It may even have done some good by raising the political price of deficits.13 [pulse. healthcare. are spoiling for another fight. which they say forbids default. affording whichever party was out of power the opportunity to extract concessions before allowing normal borrowing to resume.ncpolicywatch. REFUSING TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING WOULD THROW THE ECONOMY BACK INTO A RECESSION The Progressive Pulse 1. Republicans. refusing to increase the debt limit will inflict significant damage to the national economy and likely pitch us into another recession—either by ensuring the federal government defaults on its existing debt or by significantly shrinking current federal expenditures. including payouts to Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries. and research and development. The episode prompted one credit-rating agency to strip America of its triple-A rating.

.ncpolicywatch.16. Hagel. Given the importance of the dollar as an international reserve currency. And largely ineffective if the goal is deficit reduction. a significant downgrade in in our nation‟s credit-rating.ECONOMY REFUSAL TO PAY BONDHOLDERS WOULD CAUSE A CATASTROPHIC IMPACT TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The Progressive Pulse 1. the impacts on the stability of the global economy would likely be catastrophic.13 General.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 [pulse. Guns. as future borrowing would cost significantly more than it does now under ultra-low interest rates. since—ironically—this approach would also likely result in more long-term debt than under the current approach. Citizenship p. Climate. if the Treasury foregoes paying bondholders.org/2013/01/15/will-us-house-refuse-to-pay-nations-bills-allowdefault/] On the one hand. and a dramatic increase in interest rates by risk-averse investors. Debt. 58 of 62 DEBT CEILING – IMPACT .15. the result would be national default.

As for the future.S.alarabiya. 59 of 62 DEBT CEILING – AT: DOLLAR SCENARIO THERE IS NO PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE DOLLAR RIGHT NOW Dr. in his excellent report ―Is the Age of Dollar Dominance Coming to an End?‖ published recently by the Global Financial Institute puts it bluntly: “Recent events in the world economy have reinforced the dollar‟s international role.html] At present there is no alternative currency rivaling the dollar or it will displace the U. Berkeley. Naser AL-Tamimi. Barry Eichengreen. Guns. but the size of the shift away from the dollar will be mainly depends on finding suitable competitor (or replacement) of the dollar. 1.11.” . Debt. it’s safe to say that the center of gravity of the global economy is shifting toward China. Middle East Analyst. But they have done nothing to alter the central conclusions (…) the dollar remains the only true global currency for the time being. Citizenship p. Hagel.13 [http://english. India and emerging economies and that could suggest.16.13 General. greenback for the throne that sits currently.net/views/2013/01/11/259854. They have delayed the euro‟s emergence as a full-fledged rival while accelerating the emergence of the renminbi. the world may turn into a multi-currency system. a professor of economics and political Science at the University of California. Climate.Planet Debate Politics 1.

and key countries like China are loath to stop using the dollar and/or purchasing Treasuries due to the negative shock that doing so would wrought on their economies.com/FallStreet/1358184058. 60 of 62 DEBT CEILING – AT: DOLLAR SCENARIO CHALLENGERS ARE TOO INVESTED IN DOLLARS TO THREATEN IT Brady Willett. grotesque debt is permitted to grow unfettered thanks to the nearly universal conclusion that ending USD hegemony now would cause a global crisis of unthinkable proportions.13 General. 1. Hagel.13 [http://news.14. the vast majority of institutional money prefers to run in the Treasury market. Debt. With so many actors terrified of rocking the boat.16. a bevy of anti-dollar sentiments have taken shape in recent years. . Guns. beyond central banks slowly pecking away at gold.php] Be it dreams of a gold dinar and pricing oil in Euros. Climate. However. or harsh words from countries like Brazil and Russia. Citizenship p. FallStreet.Planet Debate Politics 1.goldseek.Com. not much has really changed: The vast majority of central banks carry more dollars than any other currency.

16. Citizenship p. Nor would the sanctity of the debt be guaranteed. setting off a chain reaction of defaults.12. Not only would that threaten to send the economy back into recession.13 General.13 [http://www. Even a few days‟ default would roil the global financial system. Disgruntled creditors could challenge the legality of prioritising interest payments.economist. Climate.com/news/leaders/21569423-debt-ceiling-america-serves-nouseful-purpose-and-should-be-abolished-cliff] The Treasury could try to soften the blow of hitting the debt ceiling by making interest payments on its debt the priority while leaving some other bills unpaid. pensioners. Hagel. 61 of 62 DEBT CEILING – AT: NO IMPACT – CAN MAKE SELECTIVE PAYMENTS SELECTIVE PAYMENT IS NO SOLUTION The Economist 1. driving up interest rates. It would also deprive doctors. The mere possibility could incite skittish investors to dump their holdings. not first. One miscalculation could leave the Treasury without enough money to make an interest payment. . Debt.Planet Debate Politics 1. which relies on Treasuries in countless transactions. Yet that would still wreak havoc. Guns. contractors and millions of others of money needed to meet their own obligations. populists could demand that Chinese bondholders be paid last. Failure to raise the debt ceiling would force immediate spending cuts equal to 6% of GDP. The federal government now borrows nearly 30 cents of every dollar it spends.

such as retention of the mortgage deduction. and the gnashing of teeth of the nation’s savers. there is reason to believe that 2013 will be a year in which the economy does indeed overcome those headwinds. The recovery of the housing sector will continue and probably accelerate. Citizenship p.weeklystandard. about 1 million more than in 2012.com/articles/march-madness_693767.html?page=3] So there will be substantial political headwinds that the private sector must overcome if growth is to be sufficient to reduce the unemployment rolls and increase the flow of tax revenues to the Treasury. Debt. 62 of 62 DEBT CEILING – THREAT ALONE WON’T HURT ECONOMY UNDERLYING ECONOMIC STRENGTH WILL OVERCOME POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES IN 2013 Irwin Stelzer. Hudson Institute. despite doubts by an increasing number of Bernanke’s colleagues. 1.14. director economic policy studies. Auto companies expect to move more than 15 million cars and small trucks from dealers to consumers’ garages. Hagel.13 General. Regulators will be unable to stifle completely the development of shale gas resources and the attendant growth of manufacturing industries dependent on that low-cost fuel. Climate. . Growth in the important service sector is accelerating. Guns.13 [http://www. Fortunately.16. boosted by some of the details in last week’s deal. The dollar will fall and exports rise as the 2013 deficit tops $1 trillion and Ben Bernanke‟s Federal Reserve Board continues to churn out dollars to keep interest rates at close to zero.Planet Debate Politics 1.

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