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13 General, Hagel, Guns, Climate, Debt, Citizenship

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General – Obama Approval High .................................................................................................................. 3 General – Winners Win ................................................................................................................................ 4 General – Economy Key to Approval ............................................................................................................ 5 General – Agenda Link Turn ......................................................................................................................... 6 General – Political Polarization High ............................................................................................................ 7 General – Executive Action = No Link ........................................................................................................... 8 General – Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................... 9 General – Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................. 10 General – Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................. 11 General – Obama Must Watch Out for Democratic Opposition ................................................................... 12 General – AT: Capital Fleeting in Second Term ........................................................................................... 13 Hagel Nomination – Yes – Schumer ............................................................................................................ 14 Hagel Nomination – Yes – Schumer ............................................................................................................ 15 Hagel Nomination – Yes – Boxer ................................................................................................................ 16 Hagel Nomination – NO – AT: Schumer ...................................................................................................... 17 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 18 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 19 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 20 Hagel Nomination – Uncertain – Needs Political Capital ............................................................................. 21 Hagel Nomination – No Impact .................................................................................................................. 22 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 23 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 24 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good – Iran ...................................................................................................... 25 Hagel Nomination – Not Certain ................................................................................................................ 26 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Bad................................................................................................................... 27 Gun Violence – Brink ................................................................................................................................. 28 Gun Violence – Control Works ................................................................................................................... 29 Gun Violence – Obama Will Push ............................................................................................................... 30 Gun Violence – Obama Needs Political Strength ......................................................................................... 31 Gun Violence – Public Supports Control ..................................................................................................... 32

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Path to Citizenship – GOP Can Defeat ........................................................................................................ 33 Path to Citizenship – Will Pass ................................................................................................................... 34 Path to Citizenship – Won’t Pass ................................................................................................................ 35 Path to Citizenship – Internal Link – Agenda Crowding ............................................................................... 36 Path to Citizenship – Inevitable .................................................................................................................. 37 Path to Citizenship – Inevitable .................................................................................................................. 38 Path to Citizenship – Already Done Border Enforcement ............................................................................ 39 Path to Citizenship – Obama Will Push ....................................................................................................... 40 Path to Citizenship – Not Inevitable ........................................................................................................... 41 Climate Change – Obama Can Boost Renewables ....................................................................................... 42 Climate Change – Renewables Not Growing ............................................................................................... 43 Climate Change – Obama Key to Climate Change ....................................................................................... 44 Climate Change – Government Action Necessary ....................................................................................... 45 Climate Change – Obama Global Leadership .............................................................................................. 46 Climate Change – Coal Coming Back ........................................................................................................... 47 Climate Change – Coal Regulations Help the Economy ............................................................................... 48 Climate Change – Carbon Tax Helps Economy ............................................................................................ 49 Affirmative – Climate Change – Carbon Tax Hurts Economy ....................................................................... 50 Affirmative – Climate Change – Carbon Tax Hurts Economy ....................................................................... 51 Affirmative – Climate Change – No Carbon Tax Solvency ............................................................................ 52 Affirmative – Climate Change – No U.S. Solvency ....................................................................................... 53 Affirmative - Climate Change – Regulation Has Huge Benefit ...................................................................... 54 Affirmative - Climate Change – Pressure to Enact Regulations .................................................................... 55 Debt Ceiling – Dollar Impact ...................................................................................................................... 56 Debt Ceiling – Impact................................................................................................................................. 57 Debt Ceiling – Impact - Economy ................................................................................................................ 58 Debt Ceiling – AT: Dollar Scenario .............................................................................................................. 59 Debt Ceiling – AT: Dollar Scenario .............................................................................................................. 60 Debt Ceiling – AT: No Impact – Can Make Selective Payments .................................................................... 61 Debt Ceiling – Threat Alone Won’t Hurt Economy ...................................................................................... 62

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GENERAL – OBAMA APPROVAL HIGH
OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING IS HIGHEST IN 3 YEARS – ANGUS REID POLL
Angus Reid Public Opinion 1.10.13

[http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48569/approval-rating-for-president-obama-improvesmarkedly-in-u-s/] Barack Obama heads to his second term as President with his best approval rating in more than three years, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,006 American adults, 54 per cent of respondents approve of the way the United States President is handling his duties (+4 since December), while 41 per cent (-4) disapprove. This is Obama’s highest rating since August 2009. The American President currently has the highest level of support in the Northeast (56%), and the lowest in the South (52%). OBAMA HIGH APPROVAL RATING – ZOGBY POLL
Forbes Magazine 1.13.13

[http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2013/01/13/president-obama-rides-high-intoinauguration/] A new Zogby Poll shows President Barack Obama with his highest approval ratings in years. The poll of 826 likely voters nationwide, conducted by Zogby Analytics January 10-12, gives the President a 56% approval rating, while 42% disapprove. Mr. Obama receives majority approval ratings from men (52%) and women (59%), Democrats (91%) and independents (55%); 18-29 year olds (68%), 30-49 year olds (60%), and 50-64 year olds (53%); Hispanics (65%), African Americans (95%), the Creative Class (57%), and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (58%). Moving beyond his base, the President gets a 40% approval among evangelical voters, 25% among conservatives, and 16% among Republicans.

4 of 62 GENERAL – WINNERS WIN SPENDING CAPITAL ON THE FISCAL CLIFF HELPED OBAMA VS.com/sites/johnzogby/2013/01/13/president-obama-rides-high-intoinauguration/] In terms of handling the recent legislation averting the “fiscal cliff”. Debt. THE GOP Forbes Magazine 1. Citizenship p.Planet Debate Politics 1. Guns. President Obama receives a net positive approval rating (52%-43%) as does Vice-President Biden (47%-46%).13.16. Climate.13 [http://www. Hagel.forbes. who are pounded by all sides.13 General. . Senate Democrats fare poorly (36% positive-56%). but not as badly as both Senate Republicans (14%-77%) and Speaker John Boehner (16%-68%).

13 [http://www. 5 of 62 GENERAL – ECONOMY KEY TO APPROVAL THE PRESIDENT’S APPROVAL WILL RISE AS THE ECONOMY IMPROVES Hrafnkell Haraldsson. It is almost a certainty that Obama‟s approval will continue to rise as the economy improves. Politics USA. Obama has been impeded in every effort to restore the economy – by those selfsame Republicans – and the American people have noticed. Debt.13 General. as polls demonstrate. Climate.html] President Obama inherited the economy Bush and the Republican destroyed. 1.com/president-obama-popular-term. Hagel. . Guns. while Congress remains less popular than lice.16. Citizenship p.politicususa.Planet Debate Politics 1.11.

In 2009.13 [www.13 General. but never able to focus on putting one of them out. Guns. more borrowing without offsets and amnesty for illegals: that‟s a menu designed to give Republicans indigestion. Obama came back with fees for carbon emissions and his new health-insurance entitlement program. but it was a heckuva battle. . While Congress was still getting over the massive stimulus spending package. two controversial nominees. Fox News. The president’s vision is of a Republican fire brigade running from blaze to blaze. 1. Obama ended up getting what he wanted on insurance. Digital Politics Editor. Hagel. This time Obama is actually hoping to overload Congress. The global warming fees and other initiatives mostly went by the wayside.16. even with majorities in both houses of Congress.Planet Debate Politics 1.14.com/politics/2013/01/14/obama-looks-to-overload-gop-opponents/] Gun control. 6 of 62 GENERAL – AGENDA LINK TURN OVERLOADING THE AGENDA WORKS IN OBAMA’S FAVOR Chris Stirewalt. Defense cuts. The plan seems to be to have Republicans running from fight to fight that they cannot find a central point on which to unite and oppose him. Citizenship p.foxnews. Debt. Climate. Obama overloaded the circuits of a Democratic Congress with lots of big plans.

14. Climate." Florida Republican Rep. ―If we don’t use the opportunity where we have a divided Congress and White House to try and get the best thing for the future . From inside that restive GOP caucus.and in both parties. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell helped the nation avert the fiscal cliff by cutting a deal with Vice President Joe Biden.html] The Democratic-controlled Senate might be a vehicle for future deals between the White House and Capitol Hill. the time to use what leverage the GOP has is now: "Two generations from now. . Hagel. And so. . however. 1. his voice trailing off in dismay. many members of which are second-term Tea Party proponents who believe that holding a majority in half of one of three co-equal branches of government should give them an equal say. By way of thanks. Boehner’s inability to keep House Republicans in lock-step is well-documented.com/articles/2013/01/14/obama_and_boehner_in_need_of _couples_counseling_116672. Guns. he said. McConnell was greeted in the New Year by attack ads from a conservative advocacy group asking ―which side‖ the Kentucky Republican is on.16. The gist of the problem is a Republican caucus.13 General.realclearpolitics. Real Clear Politics. Citizenship p. the prevailing view is that the country is spiraling down a deep spending crevasse from which there would be no climbing out. but the partisan polarization within the new Congress may be even greater than in the old.Planet Debate Politics 1. . 7 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL POLARIZATION HIGH PARTISAN POLARIZATION IN CONGRESS HAS INCREASED Caitlin Huey-Burns.‖ Similar dynamics are at work in the Senate -. Debt.13 [http://www. we can say we were the ones who helped assist saving Social Security and preserving Medicare. Tom Rooney told RCP.

13 General.csmonitor.16. 1. 8 of 62 GENERAL – EXECUTIVE ACTION = NO LINK EXECUTIVE ACTIONS DON’T DRAIN THE PRESIDENT’S POLITICAL CAPITAL Peter Grier.15. Debt. Yet such action would require little political capital on his part and would not distract from his efforts on something voters still say is their top priority – keeping the economy on track. Conn. Guns.. Climate. Hagel. Christian Science Monitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0115/Obama-andgun-control-What-actions-could-he-take-on-his-own] The reasons the White House might see the executive action route as attractive are obvious. and there is substantial opposition. .13 [http://www. are high in public thought. Executive action could allow Obama to trumpet some progress on gun control at a time when the tragic shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown.Planet Debate Politics 1. Congressional action is uncertain. to banning whole weapon classes such as assault rifles. even among some Democrats. Citizenship p.

while the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee. The House. Chuck Hagel (R) for defense secretary an ―in your face‖ move.Planet Debate Politics 1. A potential ally on immigration. but a set of new fights with Republicans is already well underway.13 General. immigration reform and gun control top his 2013 agenda. Climate. 9 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL CAPITAL LOSS INEVITABLE OBAMA FACES CONTROVERSY AND BATTLES WITH CONGRESS ON MANY FRONTS – LOSS OF POLITICAL CAPITAL INEVITABLE Russell Berman. Another major budget battle. Citizenship p. Lindsey Graham (R-S. The Hill. Obama’s choice for CIA chief. Guns. The president and Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) are barely on speaking terms after their latest failed bid to strike a grand bargain on the deficit. called Obama’s nomination of former Sen. spending cuts and broad tax reform. 1.C.) angrily denounced his pick of Jack Lew to head the Treasury. Jeff Sessions (Ala. and there appears to be minimal overlap between Obama‟s top priorities and those of House Republicans – namely entitlement reform. Debt. the chamber of Congress with which the administration has gotten along (relatively) well in the last several months.). Most troubling for the president is that the latest vitriol is coming from the Senate. As for John Brennan.12. . Hagel. is verging on a lost cause for Obama. Republicans are signaling they could hold up his nomination until the administration provides long-sought answers to their questions about the deaths of four Americans in Benghazi last September. and this week he announced a trio of key Cabinet nominations that could complicate all three of those priorities. Sen.13 [http://thehill. All of which explains why the word “honeymoon” has not been uttered in Washington since early 2009. on the other hand.com/homenews/senate/276797-new-year-but-no-fresh-start-for-obama-gop] President Obama‟s second term hasn‟t begun yet.16.

‖ The White House puts it slightly differently: ―We are headed for 60 days of nastiness. its extension of unemployment insurance. Climate. during which three interrelated problems will give Congress another set of opportunities for late-night sessions. Citizenship p. Debt. pore over the 154-page bill and consider its handouts to windmill operators and producers of all sorts of fuels other than those God put in the earth (a continuation of the president’s transformation of the energy sector). despite adding $600 billion to our tax bill. which he says is ―coming.html?page=3] If you think that the last-minute deal to avoid going over the fiscal cliff solves anything.13 General. its tax relief for mortgage-debt forgiveness and other goodies. Hagel. To understand why. think again. .” Others call it the politicians‟ version of March Madness.13 [http://www.14.com/articles/march-madness_693767.Planet Debate Politics 1.16. Hudson Institute. 1.weeklystandard. 10 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL CAPITAL LOSS INEVITABLE THE NEXT BUDGET BATTLE WILL BE BIGGER THAN THE LAST Irwin Stelzer. director economic policy studies. and we’re going to have one hell of a contest about the direction and the vision of this country. The Congressional Budget Office reckons that last week‟s deal will increase the deficit over the next 10 years by some $4 trillion. Worse still. the table is now set for what Republican senator Lindsey Graham calls Round Two. Guns.

weeklystandard. none of the events leading up to last week‟s deal suggest such a bargain is in the offing.13 General. slower-rising index. In the course of the negotiations Senate Democrats even refused to change the inflation index for Social Security to a more accurate. and they remain sullen if not mutinous. 1. Eric Cantor. even fewer will sign on to any tax increases the president demands. director economic policy studies. Surely. and what “tax reform” really means. a man who has a lean and hungry look. the consequences of looming entitlement spending. and then force the nation to confront. Speaker John Boehner. Republicans are even less likely to make the concessions needed for a grand bargain. Republicans would have to accept more wealth redistribution than they like.000 for families. Climate.html?page=3] Perhaps. For the moment Cantor has decided to sheath his blade.com/articles/march-madness_693767. is also likely to hang tough in the March negotiations. It took substantial arm-twisting by Vice President Joe Biden to get Senate and House Democrats to agree to move the level at which taxes would go up from $250. Debt.000 to $450. On the other side. Only a minority of House Republicans voted in favor of the cliff deal.13 [http://www. for that is what means-testing of benefits is. Or even to consider increasing the age at which certain entitlements will become available. In short.16. Citizenship p. although the president had said such a change makes sense. who voted for the deal. . but another display of reasonableness by Boehner might make the Ides of March a troublesome day for the speaker.14. Guns. For that to happen the president would have to admit to himself. Hagel. But many of the politically savvy folks here in Washington very much doubt that 2013 will be the year of the grand bargain. 11 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL CAPITAL LOSS INEVITABLE A GRAND BARGAIN IS VERY UNLIKELY Irwin Stelzer. He knows that his majority leader. and persuade his party that entitlement reform is not inconsistent with Democrats‟ historic support for an expansion of the welfare state. and as the 2014 primaries loom. the left has yet to be persuaded that there aren‟t enough “rich” people to pick up the bill for the lavish entitlement buffet that liberal politicians have laid before them. voted against the deal as a predicate to a leadership challenge. Hudson Institute. even if that change were to affect only those Americans still far from retirement.Planet Debate Politics 1.

Senators from the president’s own party are the ones giving him trouble over his nominee for Defense secretary. with one of the president’s most partisan backers privately expressing doubt about whether he’ll support his nomination. Guns. Citizenship p. Hagel.nationaljournal. perhaps. 12 of 62 GENERAL – OBAMA MUST WATCH OUT FOR DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION DEMOCRATS COULD BLOCK THE PRESIDENT’S AGENDA Josh Kraushaar. former GOP Sen. Climate. immigration reform. Obama has already hit some unpleasant stumbling blocks with his own party. Debt. the White House is now calculating that it will be ―exceedingly difficult‖ to pass broad measures.com/politics/obama-s-ambitious-second-term-agenda-couldbackfire-20130111] The White House‟s ambitious agenda on gun control.16. Just one week into the new year.13 [http://www. and.11. even climate change is a sign that President Obama believes he locked up precious political capital with his reelection and intends to spend it quickly.13 General. But that isn‟t welcome news to many of the Democrats who need him the most in the short term--the seven Democratic senators in conservative states facing tough reelection bids.Planet Debate Politics 1. a sharp U-turn from its optimism heading into the new year. Chuck Hagel. National Journal. On gun control. The New York Times reports. . 1.

Citizenship p. Huffington Post. The world economy could be poised for a new round of growth. Now he has a feel for the game." He was a novice at Washington and at the give-and-take of politics four years ago. That may not be true in Obama's case. His Republican foes are in retreat and disarray.html] For most reelected presidents. He can back them into a corner or woo them one-by one. 1.13 [http://www.14. Guns. Climate. power fades quickly. . as he did recently on the "fiscal cliff.Planet Debate Politics 1. Laws he passed in his first term can be implemented without going back to a nettlesome Congress.16.com/howard-fineman/obama-second-term-the-roadforward_b_2468998. Hagel. Debt. 13 of 62 GENERAL – AT: CAPITAL FLEETING IN SECOND TERM OBAMA’S POLITICAL STRENGTH MAY HAVE STAYING POWER Howard Fineman.13 General.huffingtonpost.

15.13 [http://www. Hamas and Hezbollah rather than push tougher measures preferred by proIsrael members of the Senate Democratic Caucus.politico. Hagel‟s prospects greatly brightened with Schumer‟s support for his nomination. And with Democrats now holding a 55-45 majority in the Senate. Guns.Planet Debate Politics 1.) did Monday night. SCHUMER’S SUPPORT WILL BRING ALL DEMOCRATS TO HAGEL Manu Raju. removing a major obstacle to his nomination and greatly increasing the chances he‟ll be confirmed. Politico.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215. 14 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – YES – SCHUMER SCHUMER SUPPORT MAKES HAGEL NOMINATION VERY LIKELY Manu Raju. 1.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215. Chuck Schumer announced Tuesday he‟d support Chuck Hagel‟s nomination as defense secretary.13 [http://www. Most notably.politico.html] Schumer‟s support may mean a major tipping point for Hagel‟s nomination. given his clout within the Senate Democratic Caucus and his deep ties to pro-Israel hawks on and off the Hill. Citizenship p. Climate. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif. 1.html] New York Sen. Hagel. And they’re an important sign that Democrats who have expressed concerns over his nomination are starting to come on board. as Sen. Schumer‟s backing is a major sign that Democrats who have expressed squeamishness over his nomination are starting to come on board. But Hagel has appeared to have alleviated those fears ahead of his crucial confirmation hearings before the Senate Armed Services Committee in the coming weeks. even as Hagel continues to face opposition from the right.16.15. Debt. Democrats have raised concerns that Hagel has been too quick to call for direct engagement with Iran.13 General. Politico. .

So. 1. If Schumer had opposed Hagel. understands that he likely holds Hagel’s fate in his hands. as such. Schumer‟s announcement follows the public endorsement of Hagel by Sen. . being one of the smartest strategists in the Senate. Schumer is widely regarded as the next leader of Senate Democrats and.14 [http://www. if personally Schumer has reason to oppose Hagel.Planet Debate Politics 1. Guns. 15 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – YES – SCHUMER SCHUMER IS “THE DECIDER” ON THE HAGEL NOMINATION Chris Cilliza.14. Regardless of where he ends up. politically he has every reason to support him. the New York Democrat will find a way to say yes. Climate.15. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.13 [http://www. If Schumer signaled that he would vote no. our (educated) guess is that if Hagel is apologetic about some of his past statements during his meeting with Schumer. Given those stakes. Citizenship p. And he doesn’t want to own the defeat of (and blame for) a Cabinet nominee put forward at the cusp of Obama’s second term. But he can’t. he would probably vote no.13 General. his opinion matters a great deal. Debt.washingtonpost.).16.com/politics/schumer-to-back-hagel/2013/01/15/ffd46fc85f23-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story. SCHUMER WAS THE KEY LYNCHPIN FOR HAGEL’S NOMINATION Washington Post 1. knows that.html] Schumer had become a key linchpin in the nomination battle. Washington Post. it would give cover for other Democrats to follow suit — a domino effect that almost certainly would destroy Hagel’s chances. Schumer. as many senior Republicans have expressed deep doubt about Hagel’s confirmation. of course. Schumer. Hagel.washingtonpost. another prominent Jewish Democrat who is also a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/01/14/how-chuck-schumercan-make-or-break-chuck-hagel/] What seems abundantly clear is that if Schumer could make his decision on Hagel in a political vacuum. make no mistake: Chuck Schumer is the decider on the fate of Chuck Hagel‟s nomination. then a crucial bloc of pro-Israel Democrats might have joined him and made confirmation impossible.

.13 [http://www. also outlining a more hawkish stance toward Hezbollah and Iran.15. Politico.13 General.html] The White House and Hagel both clearly recognize that wooing Jewish Democrats — like Schumer and Boxer — are a top priority before the former Nebraska GOP senator‟s confirmation hearings. 1.politico. Hagel apologized for previously using the term ―Jewish lobby. Guns.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215. Citizenship p.Planet Debate Politics 1. Debt. Hagel. a sign of growing support on the left.‖ calling it a ―very poor choice of words. Hagel sent a letter Monday to Boxer. 16 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – YES – BOXER SUPPORT FROM BOXER SHOWS HAGEL WILL WIN PROGRESSIVE SENATORS Manu Raju.‖ And Boxer — who does not serve on the Armed Services Committee — announced her support of Hagel. Climate.16.

S.13 General. Politico. 1.politico. Climate. and they say his words do little to correct a 12-year Senate record that didn’t fully advocate for Israeli interests. which they call a success. Citizenship p. who believe Hagel espouses a doveish world view.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215.13 [http://www. Among other things. Hagel. Guns.html] Schumer added Hagel gave him several assurances that U.Planet Debate Politics 1. Debt. . saying that the former Nebraska GOP senator would push for delivering F-35 joint strikers to Israel. Hagel reportedly said he’d urge the president to decline joining in any NATO exercises if Turkey insists on excluding Israel.15. they are quick to criticize his furious opposition to the troop surge in Iraq. such assurances alone are not enough to stop opposition among Republicans.16.-Israeli cooperation would continue if he’s confirmed. 17 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – NO – AT: SCHUMER SCHUMER SUPPORT WON’T SWAY REPUBLICANS Manu Raju. Still.

Debt.forbes. Military outlays have increased dramatically since President George W. Cato Institute fellow. counterproductive nation-building in countries like Afghanistan and Iraq. Few outlays go to the defense of America.13 General. . Bush turned into a fiscal liberal. military spending must come down. 1.” Which is true. Most goes to protect populous and prosperous allies.14. Korean War. Citizenship p.S. Climate. such as Europe. and Japan. or Vietnam War. Today the U.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] Moreover. 18 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD HAGEL IS RIGHT ON DEFENSE SPENDING Doug Bandow. Much of the rest goes to foolish.16. Hagel called the Pentagon “bloated” and said that spending needs “to be pared down. Washington devotes more money in real terms to the Pentagon today than during the Cold War. Guns. South Korea. Hagel.13 [http://www. spends almost as much as the rest of the world combined.Planet Debate Politics 1.

19 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD HAGEL’S VIEWS REFLECT PUBLIC OPINION ON INTERVENTION Doug Bandow.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] In this regard Hagel well-represents the American people. Americans also are tired of Afghanistan. They supported destroying al-Qaeda for launching 9/11 and ousting the Taliban for harboring al-Qaeda. . Guns. More than a decade later they have no idea why Americans are still dying. Cato Institute fellow. which they recognize was terrible mistake. democratic governance in Kabul. competent. They are angry after being lied to about the Iraq war. Thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died as a result of a lie propagated by self-serving Iraqi émigrés and advanced by war-promoting Neocon activists.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 General. 1. Debt. Hagel.16. Backing for war with Iran likely would dissipate once the high costs became evident.forbes. apparently in a dubious attempt to promote honest. There is no citizen support for intervening in Syria. Citizenship p.14. Climate. There was no popular enthusiasm for President Obama‟s questionable adventure in Libya.13 [http://www.

Cato Institute fellow. Debt. who could be the first enlisted man ever to end up as Defense Secretary.forbes. Hagel. Citizenship p.16. 1. he understands—out of both personal experience and practical consequence—that war is best avoided. He also is likely to bring a jaundiced eye to Pentagon budget-making. isn‟t likely to be intimidated by someone with stars on his shoulders.Planet Debate Politics 1. 20 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD HAGEL BELIEVES USE OF MILITARY IS A LAST RESORT Doug Bandow. even with diplomatic untouchables such as Hamas and Hezbollah.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] It is hard to think of a better candidate to run the Pentagon under such circumstances than Chuck Hagel. Someone has to challenge the generals to rethink the status quo. he sees military force as a last resort. Guns.13 General. For this reason he proposes negotiation. Unlike the war-happy Neocons.13 [http://www. . Climate.14. if possible. Hagel. While recognizing that war can be necessary.

1. better yet. offers skepticism rather than enthusiasm for new interventions. and would be no Pentagon rubber stamp.13 General. Debt.politico. 1.Planet Debate Politics 1. Hagel. He fought in battle.13 [http://www. . Instead of seeking consensus. Unlike outgoing Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. R-Mississippi.14. as one would expect.forbes. Hagel is expected to provoke a divisive confirmation process — at a time when Congress should be focused on urgent budget issues that could dramatically change America’s defense strategy and capabilities. Citizenship p.16. Climate. A liberal with no military experience and little confidence in military matters might be cowed or. opposition to Hagel is fierce. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska to be America‟s next secretary of defense. THE HAGEL NOMINATION WILL BE DIVISIVE Senator Roger Vicker.13 [http://www. The overriding objection to him is that he is the living refutation of everything the War Party stands for.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] Nevertheless.14. Not Hagel. understands the human cost. Changes in the president’s Cabinet presented a prime opportunity for coming together.html] The bitter tone of gridlock in Washington has left many Americans hoping for a more collaborative environment to face the country’s most pressing challenges. Guns. President Barack Obama has forced confrontation with the nomination of former Sen. Cato Institute fellow. 21 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – UNCERTAIN – NEEDS POLITICAL CAPITAL OPPOSITION IS FIERCE – WILL TAKE POLITICAL CAPITAL FOR NOMINATION Doug Bandow. coopted. who was approved unanimously by the Senate.com/story/2013/01/why-hagel-is-the-wrong-choice-to-lead-thepentagon-86098.

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HAGEL NOMINATION – NO IMPACT
HAGEL JUST REFLECTS OBAMA’S FOREIGN POLICY
John Arquilla, Foreign Policy, 1.14.13

[http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/14/for_defense_less_beef_more_chuck? wp_login_redirect=0] So, whether the issue is the surge in Iraq, the looming drawdown in Afghanistan, or the size of the defense budget, Hagel's views offer insights that all should hear -- and should spark useful, long-overdue debate about military and security affairs. His clear agreement with what I see to be an emergent Obama Doctrine makes it possible to pursue a consistent, quite innovative strategic path in this age of irregular wars. HAGEL WON’T FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE OBAMA’S MIDDLE EAST POLICY
John Zogby, president Arab American Institute, 1.14.13

[http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=56443] One thing should be clear, however, and that is if Hagel is confirmed there will not be a radical change in this Administration's approach to Israel or an American acceptance of an Iran with nuclear weapons. Hagel and Kerry, like Obama, are supporters of Israel. The Administration will continue to support that state's defense requirements and, in all likelihood, will not rush headlong into a new Middle East peace initiative since they appear to believe that conditions for that simply do not exist. At the same time, Israel will continue to face the U.S.'s growing displeasure with its occupation and settlement policies. And the Administration will not end its pressure on Iran to be more transparent with its nuclear ambitions and agree with international community's insistence that they forsake advanced enrichment. But the Obama Administration will now be fortified by a team that understands that engagement and not foolish adventurism is the best way to resolve the standoff while insuring that we not be dragged into another potentially devastating Middle East war.

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HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD
HAGEL WASN’T WRONG ABOUT THE IRAQ SURGE – IT DIDN’T WORK
Arianna Huffington, Huffington Post, 1.15.13

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/neocon-nightmare-thetrut_b_2478673.html] The relationship between Hagel and McCain goes back a long time. McCain was one of Hagel's earliest supporters and Hagel was one of the few who jumped on the "Straight Talk Express," back when McCain was taking on what he called "agents of intolerance" in the Republican Party. Unlike McCain, Hagel managed to stay on the Straight Talk Express. And now McCain is grasping at straws over Hagel's skepticism about success of the surge strategy in Iraq, something McCain finds "bizarre." Back when it was being considered, Hagel said "This is a Ping-Pong game with American lives," and that "we better be damn sure we know what we're doing, all of us, before we put 22,000 more Americans into that grinder." Since then it's become accepted gospel in Washington that the surge was successful. Accepted gospel that is, once again, wrong. Doug Ollivant was an army planning officer in Iraq who was one of those who actually implemented the surge. "The surge really didn't work, per se," Ollivant, now with the New America Foundation says, adding, "Fundamentally, it was the Iraqis trying to find a solution, and they did." A study by U.S. Special Forces officer Maj. Joshua Thiel came to the same conclusion. Thiel looked at where and when the additional surge troops were deployed and compared that to subsequent drops in violence. As Foreign Policy's Robert Haddick put it, Thiel concluded that there was no significant correlation between the arrival of U.S. reinforcements and subsequent changes in the level of violence in Iraq's provinces... the connection between surge troops and the change in the level of incidents seems entirely random.

Planet Debate Politics 1.16.13 General, Hagel, Guns, Climate, Debt, Citizenship

p. 24 of 62

HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD
HAGEL AVOIDS RECKLESS, IDEOLOGICAL POLICIES
John Zogby, president Arab American Institute, 1.14.13

[http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=56443] I know Chuck Hagel. He is a thoughtful and sober advocate of the realist approach to foreign policy. His priority has always been to defend America's interests in the world through diplomacy and, only when absolutely necessary, to commit American forces to combat missions in defense of those interests. By disposition, he has an aversion to ideologically-based reckless behavior. His criticism of the war in Iraq, his opposition to the reckless use of force against Iran, and his critique of Israeli actions that impede peace are wellknown. So too was his refusal while in the Senate to participate in AIPAC's frequent "hoop jumping" exercises. He resisted signing, as he termed them, the pro-Israel lobby's "stupid letters."

Climate.com/politics/schumer-to-back-hagel/2013/01/15/ffd46fc85f23-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story.14 [http://www.html] Schumer said that his support was sown up after Hagel — whom Obama formally nominated last week after a month of preparation — committed to several positions regarding Iran that met with Schumer‟s preference. including the use of military force. In a very detailed statement. Hagel also pledged to continue supporting the delivery of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to Israel and in general supported Israel’s right to a strong ―qualitative military edge. ―In our conversation.Planet Debate Politics 1. Citizenship p. 25 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD – IRAN HAGEL WILL NOT BE SOFT ON IRAN Washington Post 1.16. Schumer said Hagel left no doubt that he would support a very aggressive posture toward Tehran. Hagel. ―Senator Hagel rejected a strategy of containment and expressed the need to keep all options on the table in confronting that country.13 General. Senator Hagel made a crystal-clear promise that he would do „whatever it takes‟ to stop Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.15. . Debt. But he didn’t stop there.‖ Schumer said. He said his “top priority” as secretary of defense would be the planning of military contingencies related to Iran. As a two-term senator. Guns.washingtonpost.‖ as its leaders like to assert. Hagel had been unique in positions calling for direct talks the Iranian regime and opposing unilateral sanctions by the United States against the renegade regime.

Their questions will. They will try to beat him into submission. Climate. making clear his support for Israel while asserting his freedom and independence to criticize Israeli policies when necessary.13 General. we know what the stakes are.com/english/?id=56443] At this point. 1. focus on his support for Israel and his attitudes toward Iran.middle-east-online. but the outcome is far from certain. 26 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – NOT CERTAIN HAGEL’S NOMINATION IS NOT A SURE THING John Zogby. OUTCOME ON HAGEL FAR FROM CERTAIN John Zogby. into two failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (which they cannot admit were failures) and has them still advocating for more aggressive military engagements in Syria and Iran. They will want him to demonstrate that he is more committed to Israel and more hawkish on Iran than he has been in the past. Will Hagel fold? Will Obama surrender to pressure and pull his nominee. Guns.S. On the other hand should Hagel stay the course. president Arab American Institute. no doubt. then we might well be on our way to a healthier political environment where realism trumps ideology and where honest political differences can be debated in our government without fear of retribution. What is at stake for Republicans is far more than just Israel and Iran. and should Democrats decide to choose to support their president instead of the lobby and the pressure from the neo-cons.14.Planet Debate Politics 1. Citizenship p.13 [http://www. 1. I am bracing myself for a degree of disappointment.13 [http://www. I am also prepared to acknowledge that Hagel's confirmation is not a sure thing. Hagel.14.com/english/?id=56443] Republicans see the possibility of further weakening and distracting the president by "roughing up" his nominee and will in all likelihood subject Hagel to tough grilling when he finally appears before the Senate Armed Services Committee for confirmation.16.middle-east-online. forcing him to use the very shopworn language found the AIPAC letters he refused to sign when he served in the Senate. And while I believe the president is committed and will fight for his nominee. president Arab American Institute. The stakes are high. risking defeat and embarrassment? Or will the Senate defeat Hagel's bid for confirmation? Any of these would be a setback of substantial proportions. . Debt. but have no way of knowing how this will play out. While I certainly hope that Hagel won't fold under the pressure. It is the entire neo-conservative enterprise that led the U.

. Guns. 1. One is right to wonder whether Hagel‟s views on issues affecting the country‟s national security interests would shape his doctrine as defense secretary. Debt. the president seems to suggest that his approach will be to downplay American leadership rather than strengthen it. Hagel’s decisions and statements have drawn significant concerns from Democrats and Republicans.com/story/2013/01/why-hagel-is-the-wrong-choice-to-lead-thepentagon-86098. At the very least. his nomination calls into question the national security priorities of the president‟s second term.16. In choosing Hagel. Citizenship p. 27 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL BAD HAGEL AS DEFENSE SECRETARY WOULD BE A SIGN OF WEAKNESS Senator Roger Vicker. R-Mississippi. In the past.13 General. Climate.html] My opposition to this nomination stems in part from Hagel‟s flawed vision for America‟s role in the world and whether his selection signals a move toward a weaker defense by a second Obama administration.politico. Hagel.13 [http://www.14.Planet Debate Politics 1.

Debt. . 28 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – BRINK OPPORTUNITY IS RIGHT NOW FOR GUN CONTROL New York Times 1.Planet Debate Politics 1. Climate.com/2013/01/15/opinion/the-moment-for-action-on-gun-laws. Conn. A month after the slaughter of 20 children and seven adults in Newtown. Hagel. Citizenship p.13 General.’s commission is about to present a series of recommendations for new laws.. Vice President Joseph Biden Jr.16.14.html] The next few weeks represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity to harden the nation‟s gun laws and reduce the threat of rapid-fire violence in America. and it is vital that his panel gets it right and that Congress immediately takes action on its report.13 [http://www. Guns.nytimes.

That’s an exception. now that the Internet has made it easy for private individuals to buy and sell guns without screening. Federal prosecutors.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0114/How-totackle-gun-violence-5-things-liberal-groups-want] Universal background checks. including most guns that are later used in crimes. is essential. and 18 other states have submitted fewer than 100.html] The need for background checks on every gun buyer has never been greater. even among Republican lawmakers: If you buy a gun. What’s known in some places as the ―gun show loophole‖ means that those barred from buying guns by other statutes can effectively circumvent those laws by obtaining a weapon from a private weapons dealer.csmonitor. At present. Debt. Obama’s former chief of staff. you have to pass a background check.13 [http://www. who already have to conduct the checks and have long grumbled about competition from those who do not.. This first proposal is one that Democrats believe has widespread support.14. ―When you’ve got 40 percent of the guns that are going out [not receiving background checks]. said at an event Monday at the liberal Center for American Progress (CAP). .13 General.16. need to enforce the system vigorously.nytimes. putting buyers on notice that their sale is being recorded and can be traced. parking-lot sales and Web sites would reduce the cashand-carry anonymity of millions of gun transactions. that’s not a loophole. UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS WILL CUT GUN VIOLENCE Christian Science Monitor 1.‖ Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. The reason that both the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and Mayors Against Illegal Guns have made universal background checks their top priority is that 40 percent of gun sales now take place privately.com/2013/01/15/opinion/the-moment-for-action-on-gun-laws.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 [http://www. It is largely supported by legitimate gun dealers. Requiring background checks at gun shows. ―Shutting that exemption. private sellers make up about 40 percent of weapon transfers in the US every year. Climate. according to CAP.. Guns. Citizenship p. 10 states have submitted a grand total of zero names to the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System. who have a dismal record of pursuing charges against those who lie on a gun application.” This recommendation requires strong legislative language to require states to contribute information toward national databases used for assessing whether an individual should be allowed to purchase a weapon. Such a law should be supplemented by a presidential order requiring federal and state agencies to contribute to the background check system with criminal and mental health information. Currently.14. 29 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – CONTROL WORKS UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE New York Times 1. Hagel. no matter who it’s from. And it would have no effect on law-abiding buyers who want a hunting rifle or a handgun to keep at home.

Climate. . 1.Planet Debate Politics 1. setting the stage for what could be the largest Congressional battle over gun legislation in decades.13 General.” legislation to expand background checks. also known as the “assault weapons ban. and limits on highcapacity magazine clips.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/obama-to-unveil-road-map-to-halt-gunviolence/] President Obama is expected to detail a broad plan this week to curb gun violence. Debt.16. Hagel. Citizenship p. Conn. and could outline his plan publicly as early as Wednesday. Obama is reviewing the recommendations of Vice President Biden’s task force.. One month after the deadly school shooting in Newtown. Guns.13 [http://abcnews.go. ABC News. 30 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – OBAMA WILL PUSH OBAMA WILL PROPOSE BROAD GUN CONTROL MEASURES Mary Bruce.15. which were delivered to him on Monday. Obama has already promised to push for a renewal of the 1994 ban on some types of semiautomatic assault rifles.

it would freeze ownership of weapons like that used in the Newtown. massacre at its current level. Bush. gives only a single broad sentence to the subject in its policy recommendations: ―Limit the availability of military-style weapons and high capacity ammunition magazines that are designed for mass killing. transfer.Planet Debate Politics 1. Climate.16. Guns. Citizenship p. one of the most outspoken advocates for increased gun control. ABC News. Hagel. 1.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0114/How-totackle-gun-violence-5-things-liberal-groups-want] Restrict the sale of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines If background checks enjoy the most consensus. Debt.14. Conn.csmonitor.‖ But others have been a bit more specific at reviving a policy created under President Bill Clinton but allowed to lapse under President George W.. including the National Rifle Association which has already vowed to oppose efforts to limit access to guns and ammunition. .13 [http://www.13 [http://abcnews. RESTRICTING ASSAULT WEAPONS IS HIGHLY CONTROVERSIAL Christian Science Monitor 1. The Brady Campaign. importation and manufacturing of military-style assault weapons and highcapacity ammunition feeding devices. 31 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – OBAMA NEEDS POLITICAL STRENGTH OBAMA WILL FACE FIERCE OPPOSITION ON GUN VIOLENCE Mary Bruce.13 General.‖ In other words. Dianne Feinstein (D) of California that would halt the ―sale.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/obama-to-unveil-road-map-to-halt-gunviolence/] The most contentious items on the president‟s to-do list will require Congressional approval and are expected to face fierce opposition from gun rights groups. what to do about restricting access to assault weapons is perhaps the most controversial.15. Feinstein and other Democratic Senators plan to introduce legislation to this effect early in the new session of Congress. CAP endorsed a proposal by Sen.go.

0.13 General.13 [http://www. Debt. where they are not currently required. including sales at gun shows. Much slimmer majorities expressed support for two other policy options mentioned by Obama — banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.Planet Debate Politics 1. Citizenship p.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-guns20130115. 32 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – PUBLIC SUPPORTS CONTROL PUBLIC SUPPORTS SPECIFICS OF GUN CONTROL Los Angeles Times 1.story] Two polls released Monday found broad public support for stronger background check laws. Guns. Climate. .latimes.16.5165926.14. A Washington Post-ABC News survey and another by the Pew Research Center found that more than 80% of respondents want federal background checks to be conducted for private gun sales. Hagel.

Not the broad path to citizenship.13 [http://www. 33 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – GOP CAN DEFEAT GOP COMPROMISES SHORT OF A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP COULD DEFEAT IT Matthew Yglesias. But many other aspects of immigration law are in the mix as part of a proposed deal. If Republicans want to get serious about it they should be able to make it work. High tech visas will easily generate revenue to pay for some stepped-up enforcement.15. Blocking it because it doesn't also do the broad amnesty that liberals want and conservatives hate would require the kind of fanaticism that is the exact opposite of Obama's approach to politics.13 General. Debt. Now you've got a package that falls massively short of what Latino groups are looking for. and it seems to me that there's a fair chance that a nimble Republican Party could essentially roll the Democratic coalition and pass an "immigration reform" bill that doesn't offer the path Latino advocacy groups are looking for. REPUBLICANS COULD BLOCK THE PATH TO CITIZENSHIP Matthew Yglesias. Then instead of adding on a poison pill so Democrats will block the bill. That's something the tech industry wants very much. Hagel.13 [http://www. but something small like the DREAM Act. more enforcement. why would they block it? It packages three things—more skilled immigration. Slate.slate. For the major immigration-advocacy groups.16. 1. Climate. and help for DREAMers—they say they want. Slate. After all.15. 1.Planet Debate Politics 1. . but that I think Democrats will have a hard time actually blocking. you need to add a sweetener. Citizenship p.html] The last House GOP effort to split the high-tech visas question from the path to citizenship question was an absurd partisan ploy. The centerpiece would be something on increased immigration of skilled workers.slate. the goal is clear. a comprehensive bill that includes a path to citizenship for the overwhelming majority of unauthorized migrants already living in the United States. and few influential people have any real beef with it.html] Of the major policy issues under discussion in Washington.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/15/immigration_reform_will_obama_g et_rolled. Guns. "immigration reform" stands out for having unusually undefined content.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/15/immigration_reform_will_obama_g et_rolled. it's a great idea on the merits.

Debt.15. Still. too.13 [http://www. which tend to support Democrats. however. 34 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – WILL PASS PAST OPPONENTS OF CIR NOW LIKELY TO SUPPORT Marc Caputo. OBAMA WILL GET IMMIGRATION REFORM – EASIER THAN HEALTH CARE WAS Steve Friess.16. So there's less chance for hyper-partisan politics. Politico.Com 1. Labor unions.com/2013/1/15/rubio_obama_diazbalart_roslehtinen_jeb_bush. too.15. Unions now indicate. HispanicBusiness. Citizenship p. And Republicans. A major fault-line: Whether to give illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship or a pathway to residency. .html] A top technology lobbyist said Tuesday he believes President Barack Obama has the savvy and political skill to navigate an immigration bill through even a divided Congress.13 General. he can get immigration reform done.13 [www.hispanicbusiness. It's also a new Congress. that they're willing to support a comprehensive immigration package. have opposed guest-worker immigration programs in the past because they allow for an influx of cheap labor from overseas. who blocked major congressional immigration legislation in 2010 and 2006. Climate.htm] Diaz-Balart and Ros-Lehtinen say this is the year that Congress needs to pass immigration reform.” said Consumer Electronics Association President and CEO Gary Shapiro at a POLITICO Pro Tech Deep Dive focused on the 113th Congress. might be more willing to vote for immigration-reform plans as the lessons of 2012's elections are still fresh. Hagel.com/story/2013/01/obama-immigration-reform-congress86210. 1. Guns. this is the time. Diaz-Balart said because it's not an election year.politico. ―If President Obama can get health care reform through as divisive as it was.Planet Debate Politics 1. Diaz-Balart said. Ros-Lehtinen pointed out that Democrats. have had problems with their voters when it comes to immigration reform.

Continuing fiscal cliff battles: One consequence of not reaching a grand bargain on the fiscal cliff is that it ensures that further contests over how to resolve the nation's ongoing deficits will suck much of the oxygen out of the most opportune time slot for legislative action: the period immediately following the president's inaugural address and the State of the Union address. Professor political management. George Washington Univ.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718. including immigration reform. George Washington Univ. While President Obama clearly had the upper hand politically in the tax debate. Citizenship p.16.13 [http://www. just as we witnessed in the tax debate. Professor political management.15. 35 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – WON’T PASS OBAMA WILL COMPROMISE ON CIR DUE TO TIMING AND PARTISANSHIP Mark Kennedy.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718. the lever of the debt ceiling tilts the playing field back to even when it comes to resolving the new cliff that looms just two months away. five factors are operative: Awaiting lame duck status: Second-term presidents normally have a short window of time to pass serious legislation before Congress picks up the mantle and starts driving the agenda.13 General.Planet Debate Politics 1.html] With a focus on the timing and the shape of immigration reform. Partisan poisoning: One of the reasons a grand bargain was not reached was that President Obama was most intent on winning a partisan victory over Republicans on raising tax rates. the president chose politics over policy. Debt.15. Republicans were forced to accept that they could not extend tax breaks for everyone. Guns. Hagel. 1. further souring relations with Congress. By choosing to focus more on the subsidiary goal of raising rates than on the primary goal of raising revenue to reduce deficits.huffingtonpost. 1. Compromise requires an effort from both sides.html] Serious immigration reform will be addressed later and will be narrower than some may hope. President Obama moved on taxes from a $250.000. . The sparse result of months of partisan wrestling over the fiscal cliff portends a reduced likelihood that any of President Obama's second-term priorities. will be addressed in the manner he outlines in his upcoming inaugural address. Reaching an agreement takes time and requires each side to give.000 threshold to one of $450. Climate.13 [http://www. FISCAL CLIFF PROVES THE PRESIDENT WILL HAVE TO NEGOTIATE ON CIR Mark Kennedy.huffingtonpost. Resolving the even more contentious matter of reducing spending in such a pestilent environment is sure to consume much time and energy.

36 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – INTERNAL LINK – AGENDA CROWDING ADDING ISSUES TO THE AGENDA. Debt. LIKE THE PLAN. . will decrease the likelihood of action on other priorities and will elevate the level of partisan rancor. 1.16.13 [http://www. Hagel. immigration and tax reform legislation are all desperately needed. RISKS CROWDING OUT CIR Mark Kennedy.15.html] Lack of focus: In order to really drive the direction of a major reform effort. but all cannot be done at once.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718. Guns. Adding gun reform to the mix. Professor political management. In his first inaugural address President Obama laid out a broad agenda but failed to achieve results until he narrowed his focus to health-care reform.huffingtonpost. regardless of its merits. George Washington Univ.Planet Debate Politics 1. Clearly energy. a president must prioritize and avoid cluttering the playing field with numerous other initiatives at the same time. Climate. Citizenship p.13 General.

Citizenship p. . Guns. Debt. movement conservatives and Republican leaders alike are seeing the demographic writing on the wall and calling for the GOP to embrace immigration reform. This is what Harry Reid in Nevada and Michael Bennet in Colorado did in 2010.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025.html] For Democrats this proved that the best way to deal with this so-called Republican wedge issue is not to run from it but to lean into it. with evident success.16. (Read the new America's Voice report on immigration lessons from the 2012 elections for more 2012 analysis). America’s Voice.13 General.13 [http://www. They know that the party faces an existential crisis: The GOP has to regain its competitiveness with Hispanic voters or go the way of the Whigs. Climate. Democrats are more united than ever on immigration and are determined to make Republicans play or pay. 1.huffingtonpost. Meanwhile. 37 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – INEVITABLE CIR WILL PASS – IT’S INEVITABLE DUE TO POLITICAL INCENTIVES Frank Sharry. In 2012 President Obama showed that it could work on a national scale.Planet Debate Politics 1. What does this mean for 2013 and 2014? It means that the president will make immigration reform his top post-fiscalcliff legislative priority.15. Founder. Hagel.

drafted on a bipartisan basis and approved by the Senate.13 [http://www. Founder. Democrats have promised it and Republicans need it.Planet Debate Politics 1. with bipartisan support. Hagel. Climate. Americans want it. Latino Republicans and conservative thought leaders. evangelicals." And while he will feel pressure from some on the hard right to resist reform. one that puts 11 million undocumented immigrants on the road to citizenship. In the end the House leadership will find a way. he will feel at least as much pressure from others on the right.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025. such as business executives. a bipartisan breakthrough in the Senate could send those numbers as high as 3 to 1. Then it will be up to the House of Representatives. . The bottom line: Immigration reform is an idea whose time has come.16. 1.15.13 General. America’s Voice. Debt. With comprehensive immigration reform favored by the public by a 2-to-1 margin.html] So what is likely to happen? A broad legislative proposal. They simply will not want to bear the blame for keeping the Senate and the White House out of reach for Republicans for a generation.huffingtonpost. Guns. but not if he insists on a "majority of the majority. Citizenship p. law enforcement officials. sometime this spring. 38 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – INEVITABLE REPUBLICAN OPPOSITION WILL BE OVERCOME BY OUTSIDE GROUPS – CIR WITH A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP IS INEVITABLE Frank Sharry. Once again Speaker Boehner will find a bipartisan majority in the House. will be championed by the president.

The border is as secure as it's been in a generation or two. could result in passage of the less politically complicated pieces.15.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 [http://www. The Huffington Post. The White House has met many of the desired metrics for border security.13 [http://www.huffingtonpost. the White House has learned. "But if you go back and look at the 2006 and 2007 bills. In a briefing with The Huffington Post. Immigration and Naturalization Service. Guns.16.S. and devotes massive sums to policing the borders. and Doris Meissner.' We're there.com/news/the-road-forward] Last week." the official said. Climate. which found that the government is pouring more money into its immigration agencies than the other federal law-enforcement efforts combined. Going down that road. before other elements of immigration reform. it's like 'check. "Enforcement is certainly part of the picture. There are some clear metrics to point to on the border in particular. Republicans have demanded that the border be secured first.com/news/the-road-forward] It starts with a lesson from his first term. the enforcement-is-working argument was bolstered by a report from the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute. but Republicans are still calling for more before they will consider reform. . 1. if you go back and look at John McCain's 10-point 'This is what I've got to get done before I'm prepared to talk about immigration." STUDIES PROVE WE’VE PRIORITIZED BORDER ENFORCEMENT ALREADY Elise Foley. Yet the administration has been by many measures the strictest ever on immigration enforcement. such as an enforcement mechanism and high-skilled worker visas. an author of the report and a former commissioner of the U. while leaving out more contentious items such as a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. although there is always more to be done. The Huffington Post. check. so it's really time.huffingtonpost.' and then you look at what we're actually doing. Citizenship p.13 General. but not sufficiently touting its record of doing so. Debt. 39 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – ALREADY DONE BORDER ENFORCEMENT BORDER ENFORCEMENT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED – THIS GETS BY ONE OF THE GOP’S KEY ISSUES ON CIR Elise Foley. won't be enough to win over Republicans. said she hopes putting out more information can add to the immigration debate. check. Enforcing the border. a senior administration official said the White House believes it has met enforcement goals and must now move to a comprehensive solution. Hagel.15. The administration is highly skeptical of claims from Republicans that immigration reform can or should be done in a piecemeal fashion. the White House worries. 1.

Planet Debate Politics 1. It would likely involve fines.13 [http://www.15. and it will be a non-negotiable in his plan.com/news/the-road-forward] Citizenship will be another major question. English tests and "going to the back of the line." which means waiting for possibly a long. Citizenship p. It wouldn't be the "amnesty" decried by some on the right. Debt. 1. . Hagel. Climate. long time. The Huffington Post. Obama has consistently said that a path to citizenship is vital to immigration reform. Guns.huffingtonpost.13 General.16. 40 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – OBAMA WILL PUSH THE PATH TO CITIZENSHIP WILL BE NON-NEGOTIABLE FOR OBAMA Elise Foley.

13 [www. the emotions and the host of special interests involved in the immigration debate have paralyzed Congress for years. Climate. It's unclear now if 2013 is any different.huffingtonpost. Conservatives who stress the “enforcement first” approach don‟t think so. Debt. Republicans in Congress. The polarized Congress could barely stave off the so-called "fiscal cliff" debt-andspending controversy last month. executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies.com/2013/1/15/rubio_obama_diazbalart_roslehtinen_jeb_bush. 41 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – NOT INEVITABLE FINAL PASSAGE OF CIR IS STILL POLITICALLY UNCERTAIN Elise Foley.Planet Debate Politics 1. HispanicBusiness. Conservatives see too much of what they regard as lenience in Obama's actions to date.hispanicbusiness.13 [http://www. STILL NO GUARANTEE THAT 2013 IS THAT DIFFERENT ON CIR Marc Caputo.16.15. Such concerns allow some Republicans to draw a hard line on the idea of citizenship for the undocumented. Citizenship p. Mark Krikorian.a key goal. Guns.com/news/the-road-forward] It's not clear whether the politics have changed enough for a bill to pass. after all. Rep." Krikorian said of immigration politics. said on Monday that Congress shouldn't trust the president on "mass amnesty" and that a bill including citizenship "will have a hard time" in the House. . a key figure in the ongoing debate and the former head of the House Judiciary Committee. although the percentage of criminals being deported has gone up.htm] But the complexity.13 General. if not most. of any new policy and the major sticking point for many. Conservatives point to the deferred action policy for young undocumented immigrants and guidelines that put a low priority on removing some other categories of immigrants.15. Lamar Smith (R-Texas).Com 1. They note that the administration has in some cases decided not to deport undocumented immigrants it detects. Hagel. 1. rejects the findings of the Migration Policy Institute and fears that reform might not prevent future swells in unauthorized immigration -. The Huffington Post. "I don't think the basic reality has changed.

from increasing funding for energy R&D to helping establish facilities where companies can share the costs and risks of testing new technologies. you will need to rally the nation around the issue of tackling climate change. We need new and far more advanced technologies. under most circumstances.13 [http://www. 1. 42 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – OBAMA CAN BOOST RENEWABLES OBAMA’S CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES CAN BOOST RENEWABLE ENERGY Technology Review. remains much more expensive than electricity generated from fossil fuels.Planet Debate Politics 1. . Hagel. Citizenship p. Open Letter to President Obama. And it will require market incentives. Guns. Only with broad public support can you hope to push a recalcitrant Congress into passing legislation that will establish some form of carbon pricing. Solar power.13 General. Your administration can play a critical role in each of these areas.16. such as a tax or some other price on carbon dioxide emissions. Climate. still generates less than 1 percent of our nation’s electricity and.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-dealwith-climate-change/] Renewable energy sources. for example. like solar and advanced biofuels.technologyreview.2. Debt. to encourage consumers and industry to use clean energy. Perhaps most important. are simply not yet ready to compete with fossil fuels. Creating cleaner ways to produce energy will require inventions in physics and chemistry labs and innovations in how we scale up and test those inventions.

13 General. 43 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – RENEWABLES NOT GROWING NATURAL GAS AND SHALE OIL DISCOVERIES ARE UNDERCUTTING RENEWABLE ENERGY Technology Review.13 [http://www. Hagel. The inexpensive energy made available by these drilling activities is good news for the overall economy. Guns.technologyreview. Citizenship p.2.16. Debt. Already.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-dealwith-climate-change/] Adding to our difficulties is the recent boom in our country’s production of fossil fuels.Planet Debate Politics 1. but it is also a stark reminder that the motive for adopting non-fossil fuels is not market-driven but is—and always has been—a simple one: we must do it to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and begin stabilizing our climate. . 1. Open Letter to President Obama. Climate. including natural gas and related deposits of shale oil. the glut of cheap natural gas created by advanced drilling technologies and by the nation‟s vast supply of shale gas has made it difficult for renewable energy to compete on price.

It is quite possible that if this is not done over the next four years.technologyreview.13 General. we can no longer wait without risking dramatic upheavals in global security and the health and welfare of hundreds of millions of the world‟s inhabitants.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-dealwith-climate-change/] But as extensive and exacting analyses over the last decade have shown. 44 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – OBAMA KEY TO CLIMATE CHANGE OBAMA’S TERM WILL BE DECISIVE IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE BATTLE Technology Review. Citizenship p. The president who takes office that year will thus be facing a far more urgent problem—probably. Open Letter to President Obama. it will be too late. The International Energy Agency reports that global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record 31. To have a decent chance of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2 °C and avoiding the most devastating effects of climate change. with no political consensus on how to solve it. you have a chance to take risks. Climate.13 [http://www. Guns. Debt. Hagel. like you. .6 metric gigatons.16. You have the power and the opportunity to lay the groundwork for a new clean-energy policy that will help us avoid the worst consequences of climate change. we will need carbon emissions to peak at no more than 32.2.6 metric gigatons in 2011. But as a president in his final term.Planet Debate Politics 1. and to start falling no later than 2017. 1.

Scientists said the evidence is unequivocal that the heat and catastrophic weather are linked to climate change caused by fossil-fuel pollution—and that without governmental action to stop that pollution. Obama heard a wailing siren warning him to stick to his pledge: On Monday. with 11 disasters sustaining $1 billion each in economic losses.S.11. the spread of insecttransmitted disease.nationaljournal. . It was also the nation‟s second-most-extreme year for destructive weather events.13 [http://www. a new draft report by 13 U.16. Citizenship p.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] This week.Planet Debate Politics 1. worse destruction is on the way. The National Journal. Guns. federal agencies concluded that rising temperatures caused by fossil fuel emissions have directly contributed to increased wildfires. melting glaciers and decreasing water supply across the U. rising sea levels. Hagel. 45 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – GOVERNMENT ACTION NECESSARY NEW REPORTS SHOW GOVERNMENT ACTION NECESSARY TO PREVENT CLIMATE CHANGE Coral Davenport.S. On Friday.S. 1. Debt. Climate.13 General. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that 2012 was by far the hottest year on record in the contiguous U.

And in 2015.13 General. the nations of the world are scheduled to come together to sign a landmark. a think tank. 1.11. Obama signed an accord pledging that the U. then other countries can hide behind the U. can meet its existing climate pledge. Climate. 46 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – OBAMA GLOBAL LEADERSHIP ACTION BY THE U.S. ―If the U. there‟s no reason to expect the rest of the world‟s nations to live up to their obligations.S. experts say. The rest of the world is awaiting action from Washington. would reduce its carbon pollution 17 percent by 2020. Debt. to meet its commitment internationally. director of the climate and energy program at the World Resources Institute. It will make it very difficult for the U.S.‖ .nationaljournal. There is no way. And if the United States—historically.S.S. without either a new climate law from Congress or new EPA rules on existing power plants. the largest globalwarming polluter—fails to show it can meet its climate pledge. let alone sign on with any credibility to a future global treaty.16. ―The new regulations on existing plants are going to be essential for the U. Citizenship p.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] But the president doesn‟t have the luxury of time. Guns. binding global treaty to cut carbon emissions enough to stave off the most catastrophic effects of climate change.13 [http://www. At a 2009 United Nations summit.Planet Debate Politics 1. that the U.S.S. Hagel. to have any credibility or influence.‖ said Jennifer Morgan. The National Journal. is seen as not acting. IN THE NEXT YEAR WILL BE KEY TO GLOBAL LEADERSHIP ON CLIMATE CHANGE Coral Davenport.

10.13 [http://www.rtcc. Climate change envoy Todd Stern hailed the 8. 1.6% drop in electricity related emissions at the UN climate talks in Doha last month but rising shale gas prices are making coal cost competitive again.13 General. Now those figures are heading up again. 47 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – COAL COMING BACK RISING SHALE PRICES MAKING COAL COMPETITIVE AGAIN – COAL CARBON EMISSIONS WILL START TO RISE John Parnell. Responding to Climate Change. In 2011 Coal’s share fell below 40% for the first time since 1978. Coal emits around twice the CO2 of natural gas per unit of energy generated as well as generating greater levels of other pollutants that damage human health. . and emission levels will surely follow. Debt. Climate. Citizenship p. Guns. Hagel.16.Planet Debate Politics 1.org/coal-comeback-threatens-obamas-climate-change-policy/] New figures released this week by the Energy information Administration (EIA) reveal that the use of coal by power plants is increasing again after being displaced by cheap domestic shale gas in recent years.

The latest press release by the committee states that Georgia Power is closing 15 coal units putting 500 jobs on the line.16.10.Planet Debate Politics 1. Hagel. Citizenship p. Guns. .‖ said Energy and Power Subcommittee Chairman Ed Whitfield (R-KY) Georgia Power is replacing this coal capacity with two new nuclear reactors creating 5000 jobs during construction and 800 permanent positions afterwards. led by vocal climate change skeptic Fred Upton’s Energy and Commerce Committee.org/coal-comeback-threatens-obamas-climate-change-policy/] The focus of the War on Coal accusations. Already.13 General. cheaper gas. Two coal plants are also being converted by the company to burn cleaner. we have seen a number of coal plants fall victim to the Obama administration’s assault on coal and I would not be surprised if there are even more closures in the months ahead. Debt.rtcc. Responding to Climate Change.13 [http://www. creating 2000 jobs along the way. 1. Climate. is jobs at coal power stations. ―This retirement announcement by Georgia Power is disappointing yet unsurprising. 48 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – COAL REGULATIONS HELP THE ECONOMY REPLACING COAL PLANTS INCREASES JOBS John Parnell.

and they seem to have adapted by driving substantially more efficient vehicles. suggested that a carbon tax of $300 for a ton of carbon emissions might be enough to structurally change the kind of cars Americans drive. the Irish government is managing to balance its books.” An excellent article on Ireland‟s carbon tax boon points to the other part of the equation — despite three years of recession. Frank. would slowly rise by somewhat less than $3 a gallon. the European Union’s commissioner for climate action. Debt. International Herald Tribune. Dr.com/2013/01/11/carbon-taxes-provoke-debate-oneconomic-impact/] The economist Robert H.11. Hagel.Planet Debate Politics 1. Frank. Guns. Elisabeth Rosenthal reported late last year that Ireland’s deficit has decreased from 32. 49 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – CARBON TAX HELPS ECONOMY CARBON TAX WOULD ENCOURAGE FUEL ECONOMY AND GREEN REVENUES Christopher Schuetze. in part due to carbon taxes on cars.blogs.13 [http://rendezvous. gas and even garbage. in an opinion piece last year. ―This is a way to secure competitiveness in the future.nytimes. made the basic case that high carbon taxes on gasoline would lead to more fuel-efficient cars. of Cornell University. He wrote: ―The price of gasoline. 1.16.13 General.4 percent in of gross domestic product in 2010 to 8. Citizenship p. . said in an interview with Elisabeth. Motorists in many countries already pay that much more than Americans do.3 percent of GDP in 2012 in part due to a new taxes on carbon — despite the economic downturn.‖ Connie Hedegaard. for example. Climate.

retailers are taking the hit of the carbon tax as consumers bypass the stores to pay household bills. the Australian Retailers Association released results of a survey in which they found that 80 percent of Australian retailers say their business has been negatively affected by the new carbon taxes in place in that country since July of 2012.11. the cost of doing business has gone up for retailers due to higher utility bills and costs accumulated throughout the supply chain.Planet Debate Politics 1. it can make transport. 1. Debt. Citizenship p. International Herald Tribune. Depending on where the carbon tax is applied. 50 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – CARBON TAX HURTS ECONOMY CARBON TAX HURTS SMALL BUSINESSES IN AUSTRALIA Christopher Schuetze.13 [http://rendezvous. In a climate of already suppressed retail spending.com/2013/01/11/carbon-taxes-provoke-debate-oneconomic-impact/] Opponents of carbon taxes are not sure about that claim to competitiveness.13 General. Last month.blogs. Meanwhile. Climate. Guns. Hagel. Russell Zimmerman. utilities and production costs go up.nytimes.16. which eventually fall onto retailers’ bottom lines…‖ . the head of the retail organization wrote in a statement: “The introduction of carbon pricing was a massive legislative change for small business and one which has had a significant impact.

" A carbon tax would unnecessarily reverse this resurgence.13 [http://www. thus depriving fossil-fuel-based companies much-needed cash for more efficient power generation. 51 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – CARBON TAX HURTS ECONOMY A CARBON TAX WOULD DAMAGE THE ECONOMY David Kreutzer.8.13 [http://www. the US market has transformed to become one of the most advantageous markets for chemical production in the world. regulations of these fuels directly raise the cost of electricity. Since low-income families spend a larger proportion of their income on energy. CARBON TAX WOULD MAKE THE U. lured by the prospect of abundant and cheap natural gas. Businesses. faced with higher energy costs. diesel fuel. Debt.heritage. and fewer jobs.org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] Since an overwhelming majority of America's energy needs are met by carbon-emitting fossil fuels.heritage.S. Heritage Foundation. Climate. LESS COMPETITIVE David Kreutzer. 1. However. are moving to the United States. lower income. gasoline. Hagel.S. "With a new and abundant source of low-cost feedstock. Heritage Foundation. would likely pass those costs on to consumers. Economics Research Fellow.13 General. high energy costs would squeeze profit margins and prevent businesses from investing and expanding. Citizenship p. and home heating oil.8. 1. chemical industry emphasizes. The result is higher energy costs. energy-intensive industries and manufacturing would feel the adverse effects of a carbon tax.16. A recent KPMG analysis of the U. Guns. if a company had to absorb the costs. Investors might even move their funds away from energy companies and toward less regulated business enterprises. .org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] In particular. a tax that increases energy prices would disproportionately affect the budgets of the poorest American families. which comes at a time when many companies.Planet Debate Politics 1. Economics Research Fellow.

Heritage Foundation. for example).13 General.S. Climate.16.8. Citizenship p. it would reduce global temperatures by only a few tenths of a degree Celsius by the close of the century. Economics Research Fellow. Guns. 52 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – NO CARBON TAX SOLVENCY U. which shows little appetite for squeezing economic growth for the sake of the environment.org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] Unilaterally reducing greenhouse gases would not make a dent on global emissions and. . were to curb carbon emissions 83 percent below 2005 levels by 2050 (what cap-and-trade bills required). Debt. CARBON TAX WOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON GLOBAL EMISSIONS David Kreutzer.heritage. Even if the U. This is because future carbon emissions will come overwhelmingly from the developing world (China and India.13 [http://www.Planet Debate Politics 1. would do next to nothing to reduce global temperatures.S. consequently. 1. Hagel.

heritage. Debt. reliable electricity (especially since many areas do not even have access to electricity) and have more pressing environmental needs. SOLVENCY AMERICAN INFLUENCE ON OTHER EMISSIONS IS WISHFUL THINKING David Kreutzer. the developing world has massive expansions planned to increase coal consumption.200 coal-fired power plants in 59 different countries totaling over 1.Planet Debate Politics 1.16.8. According to a recent report from the World Resources Institute. Guns. Economics Research Fellow. It is simply wishful thinking to assume that these countries would follow America's lead and curb economic growth to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Hagel.4 million megawatts.13 General.13 [http://www. Climate. Developing countries want access to cheap. .org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] A common argument is that if the U. But this is clearly not the case. 53 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – NO U.S. Heritage Foundation. Despite actions taken by the EPA to regulate carbon dioxide. there are plans to build nearly 1. Citizenship p. China and India alone account for 76 percent of the proposals.S. 1. the rest of the world would follow suit. leads in reducing emissions.

to slash their emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming. such as coal-fired power plants and oil refineries.13 General.16. The rule could have a profound environmental impact by reducing the nation‟s global-warming pollutants by up to 20 percent.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] Under the terms of a Supreme Court ruling and the nation‟s clean-air laws. The question the administration is grappling with is when to roll out the rule. either in Congress or in the courts. ―In terms of actual real emissions. Guns.11. 54 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE . this is the mother of all climate rules. Citizenship p.13 [http://www. the Environmental Protection Agency is required to issue a regulation that will force existing industrial polluters. . 1.nationaljournal.Planet Debate Politics 1. Climate. possibly costing jobs in the process.” said Frank O‟Donnell.CLIMATE CHANGE – REGULATION HAS HUGE BENEFIT OBAMA CAN ENACT A MAJOR GREENHOUSE POLLUTANT REDUCTION REGULATION WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL Coral Davenport. president of the advocacy group Clean Air Watch. The National Journal. Debt. Hagel. The new limits will ignite raging political opposition from the nation’s most powerful fossil-fuel interests and likely lead to the shutdown of many of the dirtiest coal plants. It will also be met with an avalanche of efforts by industry and lawmakers to overturn it.

Debt.nationaljournal.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] The Obama administration has sat on the rule affecting existing polluters for months to avoid issuing a potential job-killer in an election year. . Climate.13 General.16.” On Friday.000 small businesses sent Obama a letter urging him to use his executive authority to enact climate regulations on existing polluters. 150. Citizenship p. 1. 70 environmental organizations sent a letter to the White House. Guns. 55 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE .Planet Debate Politics 1.CLIMATE CHANGE – PRESSURE TO ENACT REGULATIONS OUTSIDE GROUPS WILL PRESSURE OBAMA TO ENACT STRICT CLIMATE CHANGE REGULATIONS ON CARBON POLLUTERS Coral Davenport.13 [http://www. And advocates know it. That excuse is now gone. This week. Hagel. in a rare show of unity. The National Journal.11. insisting that Obama has “the authority under existing law to achieve urgently needed reductions in the carbon pollution that is disrupting our climate and damaging our health.

inasmuch as many economies are tied to that of the United States.16. Hagel.13 [http://usa. Debt. Citizenship p." he said. Some analysts believe a loss of confidence in US debt. could prompt foreign creditors to unload large portions of their holdings.htm] Despite the stakes. But others say a sudden selloff would be damaging to other countries' economic interests.13 General.Planet Debate Politics 1. . much less a debt default by Washington. China and the rest of the world are basically bystanders in the fiscal-policy drama playing out in the US.15. Guns. there is little that China or any other country can do to influence the outcome. "While the entire world will suffer if the negotiations reach a standoff. The report also cites long-term concerns of some US officials that persistent volatility in the dollar caused by a debt default would bolster calls in the international community to end its status as the world's reserve currency. Prasad said. inducing others to follow and causing a run on the dollar in world markets.cn/epaper/2013-01/15/content_16120098. Climate.chinadaily.com. 56 of 62 DEBT CEILING – DOLLAR IMPACT DEBT DEFAULT WOULD RISK ABANDONMENT OF THE DOLLAR China Daily 1. according to a report by the Council on Foreign Relations.

. and on K-12 education. Debt. war-fighting expenses. Hagel. furious that in the recent tussle over the ―fiscal cliff‖ they caved in on tax increases and have no spending cuts to show for it. As a bipartisan litany of mainstream economists have warned.13 [http://www. Defiant Democrats are floating crackpot responses such as issuing a $1 trillion coin to avoid the debt ceiling or invoking the 14th amendment to the constitution.16.com/news/leaders/21569423-debt-ceiling-america-serves-nouseful-purpose-and-should-be-abolished-cliff] Most of the time. The episode prompted one credit-rating agency to strip America of its triple-A rating. Guns. and research and development.org/2013/01/15/will-us-house-refuse-to-pay-nations-bills-allowdefault/] The consequences of refusing a debt limit increase are very real.12. including payouts to Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries. In the summer of 2011 Republicans openly used the threat of default to force Mr Obama and Democrats into a deficit-cutting deal. healthcare.economist. REFUSING TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING WOULD THROW THE ECONOMY BACK INTO A RECESSION The Progressive Pulse 1. 57 of 62 DEBT CEILING – IMPACT THREATS TO DEFAULT ARE WEAPONS OF MASS FINANCIAL DESTRUCTION The Economist 1.15. which they say forbids default. But as American politics has become more polarised. the debt ceiling has been an annoyance.13 [pulse. refusing to increase the debt limit will inflict significant damage to the national economy and likely pitch us into another recession—either by ensuring the federal government defaults on its existing debt or by significantly shrinking current federal expenditures. highways. It may even have done some good by raising the political price of deficits. Citizenship p.ncpolicywatch.Planet Debate Politics 1. it has become an instrument of mass financial destruction.13 General. affording whichever party was out of power the opportunity to extract concessions before allowing normal borrowing to resume. Republicans. Climate. are spoiling for another fight.

since—ironically—this approach would also likely result in more long-term debt than under the current approach.org/2013/01/15/will-us-house-refuse-to-pay-nations-bills-allowdefault/] On the one hand. Citizenship p.13 [pulse.16.Planet Debate Politics 1. if the Treasury foregoes paying bondholders. a significant downgrade in in our nation‟s credit-rating.ECONOMY REFUSAL TO PAY BONDHOLDERS WOULD CAUSE A CATASTROPHIC IMPACT TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The Progressive Pulse 1.13 General. Given the importance of the dollar as an international reserve currency. . the impacts on the stability of the global economy would likely be catastrophic. Hagel. Guns. Climate.ncpolicywatch. Debt. And largely ineffective if the goal is deficit reduction. 58 of 62 DEBT CEILING – IMPACT .15. and a dramatic increase in interest rates by risk-averse investors. the result would be national default. as future borrowing would cost significantly more than it does now under ultra-low interest rates.

a professor of economics and political Science at the University of California.net/views/2013/01/11/259854. Naser AL-Tamimi. India and emerging economies and that could suggest. 1. As for the future.11.13 [http://english.” .S. Citizenship p. They have delayed the euro‟s emergence as a full-fledged rival while accelerating the emergence of the renminbi. Debt. greenback for the throne that sits currently.16. in his excellent report ―Is the Age of Dollar Dominance Coming to an End?‖ published recently by the Global Financial Institute puts it bluntly: “Recent events in the world economy have reinforced the dollar‟s international role.13 General. 59 of 62 DEBT CEILING – AT: DOLLAR SCENARIO THERE IS NO PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE DOLLAR RIGHT NOW Dr.html] At present there is no alternative currency rivaling the dollar or it will displace the U. Hagel. Climate.alarabiya. Berkeley. Barry Eichengreen. but the size of the shift away from the dollar will be mainly depends on finding suitable competitor (or replacement) of the dollar. the world may turn into a multi-currency system. But they have done nothing to alter the central conclusions (…) the dollar remains the only true global currency for the time being. Middle East Analyst. it’s safe to say that the center of gravity of the global economy is shifting toward China.Planet Debate Politics 1. Guns.

13 General. or harsh words from countries like Brazil and Russia. the vast majority of institutional money prefers to run in the Treasury market. . grotesque debt is permitted to grow unfettered thanks to the nearly universal conclusion that ending USD hegemony now would cause a global crisis of unthinkable proportions. Debt. not much has really changed: The vast majority of central banks carry more dollars than any other currency.goldseek.14.php] Be it dreams of a gold dinar and pricing oil in Euros. beyond central banks slowly pecking away at gold. Citizenship p.16.Planet Debate Politics 1. Climate.com/FallStreet/1358184058. Hagel. However.Com. With so many actors terrified of rocking the boat. Guns. FallStreet. and key countries like China are loath to stop using the dollar and/or purchasing Treasuries due to the negative shock that doing so would wrought on their economies.13 [http://news. 60 of 62 DEBT CEILING – AT: DOLLAR SCENARIO CHALLENGERS ARE TOO INVESTED IN DOLLARS TO THREATEN IT Brady Willett. a bevy of anti-dollar sentiments have taken shape in recent years. 1.

Nor would the sanctity of the debt be guaranteed. It would also deprive doctors.13 [http://www.economist. Citizenship p. driving up interest rates.12. populists could demand that Chinese bondholders be paid last. pensioners. not first. Climate.16.com/news/leaders/21569423-debt-ceiling-america-serves-nouseful-purpose-and-should-be-abolished-cliff] The Treasury could try to soften the blow of hitting the debt ceiling by making interest payments on its debt the priority while leaving some other bills unpaid. One miscalculation could leave the Treasury without enough money to make an interest payment. 61 of 62 DEBT CEILING – AT: NO IMPACT – CAN MAKE SELECTIVE PAYMENTS SELECTIVE PAYMENT IS NO SOLUTION The Economist 1. . Disgruntled creditors could challenge the legality of prioritising interest payments. Guns. Hagel.13 General. setting off a chain reaction of defaults. Not only would that threaten to send the economy back into recession. which relies on Treasuries in countless transactions. Failure to raise the debt ceiling would force immediate spending cuts equal to 6% of GDP. contractors and millions of others of money needed to meet their own obligations. Yet that would still wreak havoc.Planet Debate Politics 1. Debt. Even a few days‟ default would roil the global financial system. The mere possibility could incite skittish investors to dump their holdings. The federal government now borrows nearly 30 cents of every dollar it spends.

Climate. Debt. The dollar will fall and exports rise as the 2013 deficit tops $1 trillion and Ben Bernanke‟s Federal Reserve Board continues to churn out dollars to keep interest rates at close to zero.16. Hudson Institute. Citizenship p. Auto companies expect to move more than 15 million cars and small trucks from dealers to consumers’ garages. about 1 million more than in 2012. despite doubts by an increasing number of Bernanke’s colleagues.13 [http://www. Hagel. 1.com/articles/march-madness_693767. Regulators will be unable to stifle completely the development of shale gas resources and the attendant growth of manufacturing industries dependent on that low-cost fuel.html?page=3] So there will be substantial political headwinds that the private sector must overcome if growth is to be sufficient to reduce the unemployment rolls and increase the flow of tax revenues to the Treasury. 62 of 62 DEBT CEILING – THREAT ALONE WON’T HURT ECONOMY UNDERLYING ECONOMIC STRENGTH WILL OVERCOME POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES IN 2013 Irwin Stelzer. director economic policy studies. The recovery of the housing sector will continue and probably accelerate.weeklystandard. and the gnashing of teeth of the nation’s savers. Growth in the important service sector is accelerating.Planet Debate Politics 1. Fortunately.13 General.14. . such as retention of the mortgage deduction. there is reason to believe that 2013 will be a year in which the economy does indeed overcome those headwinds. Guns. boosted by some of the details in last week’s deal.

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