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General – Obama Approval High .................................................................................................................. 3 General – Winners Win ................................................................................................................................ 4 General – Economy Key to Approval ............................................................................................................ 5 General – Agenda Link Turn ......................................................................................................................... 6 General – Political Polarization High ............................................................................................................ 7 General – Executive Action = No Link ........................................................................................................... 8 General – Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................... 9 General – Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................. 10 General – Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................. 11 General – Obama Must Watch Out for Democratic Opposition ................................................................... 12 General – AT: Capital Fleeting in Second Term ........................................................................................... 13 Hagel Nomination – Yes – Schumer ............................................................................................................ 14 Hagel Nomination – Yes – Schumer ............................................................................................................ 15 Hagel Nomination – Yes – Boxer ................................................................................................................ 16 Hagel Nomination – NO – AT: Schumer ...................................................................................................... 17 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 18 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 19 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 20 Hagel Nomination – Uncertain – Needs Political Capital ............................................................................. 21 Hagel Nomination – No Impact .................................................................................................................. 22 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 23 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 24 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Good – Iran ...................................................................................................... 25 Hagel Nomination – Not Certain ................................................................................................................ 26 Hagel Nomination – Hagel Bad................................................................................................................... 27 Gun Violence – Brink ................................................................................................................................. 28 Gun Violence – Control Works ................................................................................................................... 29 Gun Violence – Obama Will Push ............................................................................................................... 30 Gun Violence – Obama Needs Political Strength ......................................................................................... 31 Gun Violence – Public Supports Control ..................................................................................................... 32

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Path to Citizenship – GOP Can Defeat ........................................................................................................ 33 Path to Citizenship – Will Pass ................................................................................................................... 34 Path to Citizenship – Won’t Pass ................................................................................................................ 35 Path to Citizenship – Internal Link – Agenda Crowding ............................................................................... 36 Path to Citizenship – Inevitable .................................................................................................................. 37 Path to Citizenship – Inevitable .................................................................................................................. 38 Path to Citizenship – Already Done Border Enforcement ............................................................................ 39 Path to Citizenship – Obama Will Push ....................................................................................................... 40 Path to Citizenship – Not Inevitable ........................................................................................................... 41 Climate Change – Obama Can Boost Renewables ....................................................................................... 42 Climate Change – Renewables Not Growing ............................................................................................... 43 Climate Change – Obama Key to Climate Change ....................................................................................... 44 Climate Change – Government Action Necessary ....................................................................................... 45 Climate Change – Obama Global Leadership .............................................................................................. 46 Climate Change – Coal Coming Back ........................................................................................................... 47 Climate Change – Coal Regulations Help the Economy ............................................................................... 48 Climate Change – Carbon Tax Helps Economy ............................................................................................ 49 Affirmative – Climate Change – Carbon Tax Hurts Economy ....................................................................... 50 Affirmative – Climate Change – Carbon Tax Hurts Economy ....................................................................... 51 Affirmative – Climate Change – No Carbon Tax Solvency ............................................................................ 52 Affirmative – Climate Change – No U.S. Solvency ....................................................................................... 53 Affirmative - Climate Change – Regulation Has Huge Benefit ...................................................................... 54 Affirmative - Climate Change – Pressure to Enact Regulations .................................................................... 55 Debt Ceiling – Dollar Impact ...................................................................................................................... 56 Debt Ceiling – Impact................................................................................................................................. 57 Debt Ceiling – Impact - Economy ................................................................................................................ 58 Debt Ceiling – AT: Dollar Scenario .............................................................................................................. 59 Debt Ceiling – AT: Dollar Scenario .............................................................................................................. 60 Debt Ceiling – AT: No Impact – Can Make Selective Payments .................................................................... 61 Debt Ceiling – Threat Alone Won’t Hurt Economy ...................................................................................... 62

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GENERAL – OBAMA APPROVAL HIGH
OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING IS HIGHEST IN 3 YEARS – ANGUS REID POLL
Angus Reid Public Opinion 1.10.13

[http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48569/approval-rating-for-president-obama-improvesmarkedly-in-u-s/] Barack Obama heads to his second term as President with his best approval rating in more than three years, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,006 American adults, 54 per cent of respondents approve of the way the United States President is handling his duties (+4 since December), while 41 per cent (-4) disapprove. This is Obama’s highest rating since August 2009. The American President currently has the highest level of support in the Northeast (56%), and the lowest in the South (52%). OBAMA HIGH APPROVAL RATING – ZOGBY POLL
Forbes Magazine 1.13.13

[http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2013/01/13/president-obama-rides-high-intoinauguration/] A new Zogby Poll shows President Barack Obama with his highest approval ratings in years. The poll of 826 likely voters nationwide, conducted by Zogby Analytics January 10-12, gives the President a 56% approval rating, while 42% disapprove. Mr. Obama receives majority approval ratings from men (52%) and women (59%), Democrats (91%) and independents (55%); 18-29 year olds (68%), 30-49 year olds (60%), and 50-64 year olds (53%); Hispanics (65%), African Americans (95%), the Creative Class (57%), and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (58%). Moving beyond his base, the President gets a 40% approval among evangelical voters, 25% among conservatives, and 16% among Republicans.

. but not as badly as both Senate Republicans (14%-77%) and Speaker John Boehner (16%-68%). President Obama receives a net positive approval rating (52%-43%) as does Vice-President Biden (47%-46%). Climate. Senate Democrats fare poorly (36% positive-56%). Citizenship p. Guns.13 General.13 [http://www. THE GOP Forbes Magazine 1. Debt. Hagel.com/sites/johnzogby/2013/01/13/president-obama-rides-high-intoinauguration/] In terms of handling the recent legislation averting the “fiscal cliff”. who are pounded by all sides. 4 of 62 GENERAL – WINNERS WIN SPENDING CAPITAL ON THE FISCAL CLIFF HELPED OBAMA VS.16.Planet Debate Politics 1.forbes.13.

while Congress remains less popular than lice. 1.13 [http://www. as polls demonstrate. Guns.html] President Obama inherited the economy Bush and the Republican destroyed. Obama has been impeded in every effort to restore the economy – by those selfsame Republicans – and the American people have noticed.politicususa. Hagel. Citizenship p. . 5 of 62 GENERAL – ECONOMY KEY TO APPROVAL THE PRESIDENT’S APPROVAL WILL RISE AS THE ECONOMY IMPROVES Hrafnkell Haraldsson.16.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 General.com/president-obama-popular-term.11. Climate. Politics USA. Debt. It is almost a certainty that Obama‟s approval will continue to rise as the economy improves.

Fox News. . but never able to focus on putting one of them out.com/politics/2013/01/14/obama-looks-to-overload-gop-opponents/] Gun control. two controversial nominees. Debt. Digital Politics Editor.16.foxnews. Guns. The global warming fees and other initiatives mostly went by the wayside. This time Obama is actually hoping to overload Congress. Climate. Defense cuts.13 General. more borrowing without offsets and amnesty for illegals: that‟s a menu designed to give Republicans indigestion. Citizenship p. Obama came back with fees for carbon emissions and his new health-insurance entitlement program.Planet Debate Politics 1. 1.14. but it was a heckuva battle. The plan seems to be to have Republicans running from fight to fight that they cannot find a central point on which to unite and oppose him. Obama overloaded the circuits of a Democratic Congress with lots of big plans. even with majorities in both houses of Congress. In 2009.13 [www. Hagel. 6 of 62 GENERAL – AGENDA LINK TURN OVERLOADING THE AGENDA WORKS IN OBAMA’S FAVOR Chris Stirewalt. While Congress was still getting over the massive stimulus spending package. Obama ended up getting what he wanted on insurance. The president’s vision is of a Republican fire brigade running from blaze to blaze.

but the partisan polarization within the new Congress may be even greater than in the old. 7 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL POLARIZATION HIGH PARTISAN POLARIZATION IN CONGRESS HAS INCREASED Caitlin Huey-Burns." Florida Republican Rep. By way of thanks. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell helped the nation avert the fiscal cliff by cutting a deal with Vice President Joe Biden. the prevailing view is that the country is spiraling down a deep spending crevasse from which there would be no climbing out. Real Clear Politics.realclearpolitics. Tom Rooney told RCP. From inside that restive GOP caucus. 1. Citizenship p. however.‖ Similar dynamics are at work in the Senate -. And so.com/articles/2013/01/14/obama_and_boehner_in_need_of _couples_counseling_116672. . he said. we can say we were the ones who helped assist saving Social Security and preserving Medicare. McConnell was greeted in the New Year by attack ads from a conservative advocacy group asking ―which side‖ the Kentucky Republican is on.and in both parties.16. Hagel. ―If we don’t use the opportunity where we have a divided Congress and White House to try and get the best thing for the future . Debt. the time to use what leverage the GOP has is now: "Two generations from now. his voice trailing off in dismay. many members of which are second-term Tea Party proponents who believe that holding a majority in half of one of three co-equal branches of government should give them an equal say.html] The Democratic-controlled Senate might be a vehicle for future deals between the White House and Capitol Hill.Planet Debate Politics 1. . Climate. Guns. The gist of the problem is a Republican caucus. .13 General.14.13 [http://www. Boehner’s inability to keep House Republicans in lock-step is well-documented.

Citizenship p.13 [http://www. Conn. to banning whole weapon classes such as assault rifles.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0115/Obama-andgun-control-What-actions-could-he-take-on-his-own] The reasons the White House might see the executive action route as attractive are obvious. 1. Debt. Climate. 8 of 62 GENERAL – EXECUTIVE ACTION = NO LINK EXECUTIVE ACTIONS DON’T DRAIN THE PRESIDENT’S POLITICAL CAPITAL Peter Grier.16. Congressional action is uncertain.. even among some Democrats. Yet such action would require little political capital on his part and would not distract from his efforts on something voters still say is their top priority – keeping the economy on track. are high in public thought. and there is substantial opposition.csmonitor. . Guns.13 General.15. Christian Science Monitor. Hagel. Executive action could allow Obama to trumpet some progress on gun control at a time when the tragic shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown.Planet Debate Politics 1.

. The House.13 [http://thehill. The Hill. Guns. spending cuts and broad tax reform.13 General. Most troubling for the president is that the latest vitriol is coming from the Senate. Republicans are signaling they could hold up his nomination until the administration provides long-sought answers to their questions about the deaths of four Americans in Benghazi last September. A potential ally on immigration. Debt.com/homenews/senate/276797-new-year-but-no-fresh-start-for-obama-gop] President Obama‟s second term hasn‟t begun yet. All of which explains why the word “honeymoon” has not been uttered in Washington since early 2009.C.).Planet Debate Politics 1. 1. Sen. immigration reform and gun control top his 2013 agenda. Hagel. called Obama’s nomination of former Sen.) angrily denounced his pick of Jack Lew to head the Treasury. the chamber of Congress with which the administration has gotten along (relatively) well in the last several months. Citizenship p. 9 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL CAPITAL LOSS INEVITABLE OBAMA FACES CONTROVERSY AND BATTLES WITH CONGRESS ON MANY FRONTS – LOSS OF POLITICAL CAPITAL INEVITABLE Russell Berman. Another major budget battle. is verging on a lost cause for Obama. while the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee. As for John Brennan.12. The president and Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) are barely on speaking terms after their latest failed bid to strike a grand bargain on the deficit. and there appears to be minimal overlap between Obama‟s top priorities and those of House Republicans – namely entitlement reform. Obama’s choice for CIA chief. Lindsey Graham (R-S. but a set of new fights with Republicans is already well underway. Climate. and this week he announced a trio of key Cabinet nominations that could complicate all three of those priorities.16. Chuck Hagel (R) for defense secretary an ―in your face‖ move. Jeff Sessions (Ala. on the other hand.

Citizenship p. the table is now set for what Republican senator Lindsey Graham calls Round Two. Climate. The Congressional Budget Office reckons that last week‟s deal will increase the deficit over the next 10 years by some $4 trillion. Hagel.‖ The White House puts it slightly differently: ―We are headed for 60 days of nastiness. . Guns. To understand why. director economic policy studies.com/articles/march-madness_693767.Planet Debate Politics 1. Debt. which he says is ―coming. during which three interrelated problems will give Congress another set of opportunities for late-night sessions.13 General. despite adding $600 billion to our tax bill. Worse still.16. think again.” Others call it the politicians‟ version of March Madness.14. its tax relief for mortgage-debt forgiveness and other goodies. its extension of unemployment insurance.weeklystandard. pore over the 154-page bill and consider its handouts to windmill operators and producers of all sorts of fuels other than those God put in the earth (a continuation of the president’s transformation of the energy sector).html?page=3] If you think that the last-minute deal to avoid going over the fiscal cliff solves anything. 10 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL CAPITAL LOSS INEVITABLE THE NEXT BUDGET BATTLE WILL BE BIGGER THAN THE LAST Irwin Stelzer.13 [http://www. and we’re going to have one hell of a contest about the direction and the vision of this country. 1. Hudson Institute.

13 General. He knows that his majority leader. It took substantial arm-twisting by Vice President Joe Biden to get Senate and House Democrats to agree to move the level at which taxes would go up from $250. On the other side.weeklystandard.14.000 for families. for that is what means-testing of benefits is. even fewer will sign on to any tax increases the president demands. Debt. and what “tax reform” really means. For the moment Cantor has decided to sheath his blade. voted against the deal as a predicate to a leadership challenge. In the course of the negotiations Senate Democrats even refused to change the inflation index for Social Security to a more accurate. Surely. Republicans are even less likely to make the concessions needed for a grand bargain. Only a minority of House Republicans voted in favor of the cliff deal.000 to $450. . but another display of reasonableness by Boehner might make the Ides of March a troublesome day for the speaker. none of the events leading up to last week‟s deal suggest such a bargain is in the offing. For that to happen the president would have to admit to himself. Citizenship p.16. Eric Cantor. slower-rising index.13 [http://www. a man who has a lean and hungry look. even if that change were to affect only those Americans still far from retirement. and then force the nation to confront. Hudson Institute.html?page=3] Perhaps.Planet Debate Politics 1. is also likely to hang tough in the March negotiations. Or even to consider increasing the age at which certain entitlements will become available. Republicans would have to accept more wealth redistribution than they like. and persuade his party that entitlement reform is not inconsistent with Democrats‟ historic support for an expansion of the welfare state. the left has yet to be persuaded that there aren‟t enough “rich” people to pick up the bill for the lavish entitlement buffet that liberal politicians have laid before them. Hagel. 11 of 62 GENERAL – POLITICAL CAPITAL LOSS INEVITABLE A GRAND BARGAIN IS VERY UNLIKELY Irwin Stelzer. director economic policy studies. although the president had said such a change makes sense.com/articles/march-madness_693767. who voted for the deal. 1. the consequences of looming entitlement spending. and they remain sullen if not mutinous. Speaker John Boehner. Climate. But many of the politically savvy folks here in Washington very much doubt that 2013 will be the year of the grand bargain. Guns. In short. and as the 2014 primaries loom.

National Journal. 1.16. . Climate.Planet Debate Politics 1.com/politics/obama-s-ambitious-second-term-agenda-couldbackfire-20130111] The White House‟s ambitious agenda on gun control. even climate change is a sign that President Obama believes he locked up precious political capital with his reelection and intends to spend it quickly. 12 of 62 GENERAL – OBAMA MUST WATCH OUT FOR DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION DEMOCRATS COULD BLOCK THE PRESIDENT’S AGENDA Josh Kraushaar. former GOP Sen. Guns. immigration reform.11. and. a sharp U-turn from its optimism heading into the new year. with one of the president’s most partisan backers privately expressing doubt about whether he’ll support his nomination. perhaps.13 General. the White House is now calculating that it will be ―exceedingly difficult‖ to pass broad measures. Chuck Hagel. Citizenship p. Debt. The New York Times reports.nationaljournal. On gun control. Senators from the president’s own party are the ones giving him trouble over his nominee for Defense secretary.13 [http://www. But that isn‟t welcome news to many of the Democrats who need him the most in the short term--the seven Democratic senators in conservative states facing tough reelection bids. Just one week into the new year. Obama has already hit some unpleasant stumbling blocks with his own party. Hagel.

Now he has a feel for the game." He was a novice at Washington and at the give-and-take of politics four years ago. That may not be true in Obama's case. Citizenship p. His Republican foes are in retreat and disarray. power fades quickly. 13 of 62 GENERAL – AT: CAPITAL FLEETING IN SECOND TERM OBAMA’S POLITICAL STRENGTH MAY HAVE STAYING POWER Howard Fineman.16. Laws he passed in his first term can be implemented without going back to a nettlesome Congress. Guns.13 General. Climate. .Planet Debate Politics 1.13 [http://www.com/howard-fineman/obama-second-term-the-roadforward_b_2468998. He can back them into a corner or woo them one-by one. Hagel.14. Debt. Huffington Post. The world economy could be poised for a new round of growth. 1.html] For most reelected presidents.huffingtonpost. as he did recently on the "fiscal cliff.

And with Democrats now holding a 55-45 majority in the Senate.13 [http://www.15. removing a major obstacle to his nomination and greatly increasing the chances he‟ll be confirmed.Planet Debate Politics 1. . Politico. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215. even as Hagel continues to face opposition from the right. 1. 14 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – YES – SCHUMER SCHUMER SUPPORT MAKES HAGEL NOMINATION VERY LIKELY Manu Raju. Guns. Politico. Chuck Schumer announced Tuesday he‟d support Chuck Hagel‟s nomination as defense secretary.html] Schumer‟s support may mean a major tipping point for Hagel‟s nomination.13 [http://www. SCHUMER’S SUPPORT WILL BRING ALL DEMOCRATS TO HAGEL Manu Raju.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215.13 General. 1.16. Democrats have raised concerns that Hagel has been too quick to call for direct engagement with Iran. But Hagel has appeared to have alleviated those fears ahead of his crucial confirmation hearings before the Senate Armed Services Committee in the coming weeks. Debt. Most notably. Hagel‟s prospects greatly brightened with Schumer‟s support for his nomination. Hagel. And they’re an important sign that Democrats who have expressed concerns over his nomination are starting to come on board.html] New York Sen. Schumer‟s backing is a major sign that Democrats who have expressed squeamishness over his nomination are starting to come on board.politico.) did Monday night. Climate.politico. Citizenship p. as Sen.15. Hamas and Hezbollah rather than push tougher measures preferred by proIsrael members of the Senate Democratic Caucus. given his clout within the Senate Democratic Caucus and his deep ties to pro-Israel hawks on and off the Hill.

Hagel. And he doesn’t want to own the defeat of (and blame for) a Cabinet nominee put forward at the cusp of Obama’s second term.com/politics/schumer-to-back-hagel/2013/01/15/ffd46fc85f23-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story. Guns. as many senior Republicans have expressed deep doubt about Hagel’s confirmation.html] Schumer had become a key linchpin in the nomination battle. Schumer is widely regarded as the next leader of Senate Democrats and. If Schumer signaled that he would vote no. But he can’t.14. 15 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – YES – SCHUMER SCHUMER IS “THE DECIDER” ON THE HAGEL NOMINATION Chris Cilliza. Citizenship p. he would probably vote no. another prominent Jewish Democrat who is also a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee. our (educated) guess is that if Hagel is apologetic about some of his past statements during his meeting with Schumer. knows that. it would give cover for other Democrats to follow suit — a domino effect that almost certainly would destroy Hagel’s chances. Given those stakes. If Schumer had opposed Hagel.). Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.15. being one of the smartest strategists in the Senate.13 [http://www. Schumer. SCHUMER WAS THE KEY LYNCHPIN FOR HAGEL’S NOMINATION Washington Post 1. then a crucial bloc of pro-Israel Democrats might have joined him and made confirmation impossible. Schumer.Planet Debate Politics 1. as such. . Climate. understands that he likely holds Hagel’s fate in his hands. 1. the New York Democrat will find a way to say yes. Debt. politically he has every reason to support him.washingtonpost.16. his opinion matters a great deal. Regardless of where he ends up. So. of course. make no mistake: Chuck Schumer is the decider on the fate of Chuck Hagel‟s nomination. Washington Post.14 [http://www. if personally Schumer has reason to oppose Hagel. Schumer‟s announcement follows the public endorsement of Hagel by Sen.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/01/14/how-chuck-schumercan-make-or-break-chuck-hagel/] What seems abundantly clear is that if Schumer could make his decision on Hagel in a political vacuum.13 General.

also outlining a more hawkish stance toward Hezbollah and Iran. .16. Hagel. Hagel apologized for previously using the term ―Jewish lobby.Planet Debate Politics 1.politico. Climate. Guns. 1.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215. a sign of growing support on the left.‖ calling it a ―very poor choice of words.html] The White House and Hagel both clearly recognize that wooing Jewish Democrats — like Schumer and Boxer — are a top priority before the former Nebraska GOP senator‟s confirmation hearings.13 General. Debt. 16 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – YES – BOXER SUPPORT FROM BOXER SHOWS HAGEL WILL WIN PROGRESSIVE SENATORS Manu Raju.‖ And Boxer — who does not serve on the Armed Services Committee — announced her support of Hagel.15.13 [http://www. Citizenship p. Politico. Hagel sent a letter Monday to Boxer.

Among other things.politico.16. which they call a success.-Israeli cooperation would continue if he’s confirmed. 17 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – NO – AT: SCHUMER SCHUMER SUPPORT WON’T SWAY REPUBLICANS Manu Raju. Hagel. Citizenship p. Climate.15.html] Schumer added Hagel gave him several assurances that U.13 General. saying that the former Nebraska GOP senator would push for delivering F-35 joint strikers to Israel. . Still.13 [http://www. Hagel reportedly said he’d urge the president to decline joining in any NATO exercises if Turkey insists on excluding Israel. Guns. who believe Hagel espouses a doveish world view. Politico. and they say his words do little to correct a 12-year Senate record that didn’t fully advocate for Israeli interests. such assurances alone are not enough to stop opposition among Republicans.Planet Debate Politics 1.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagelsnomination-86215.S. Debt. they are quick to criticize his furious opposition to the troop surge in Iraq. 1.

13 General. and Japan. Bush turned into a fiscal liberal. Citizenship p. spends almost as much as the rest of the world combined. . South Korea. Korean War.14. Hagel.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] Moreover. Much of the rest goes to foolish. Guns. counterproductive nation-building in countries like Afghanistan and Iraq. military spending must come down. Washington devotes more money in real terms to the Pentagon today than during the Cold War. or Vietnam War. Today the U. Cato Institute fellow. Climate.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 [http://www.S. Few outlays go to the defense of America. Most goes to protect populous and prosperous allies. such as Europe.16. Military outlays have increased dramatically since President George W.” Which is true. 18 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD HAGEL IS RIGHT ON DEFENSE SPENDING Doug Bandow. Debt. Hagel called the Pentagon “bloated” and said that spending needs “to be pared down. 1.forbes.

There was no popular enthusiasm for President Obama‟s questionable adventure in Libya. 1. .forbes. Cato Institute fellow.14. 19 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD HAGEL’S VIEWS REFLECT PUBLIC OPINION ON INTERVENTION Doug Bandow. They supported destroying al-Qaeda for launching 9/11 and ousting the Taliban for harboring al-Qaeda. apparently in a dubious attempt to promote honest. Hagel. Guns. There is no citizen support for intervening in Syria.13 [http://www. which they recognize was terrible mistake. Thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died as a result of a lie propagated by self-serving Iraqi émigrés and advanced by war-promoting Neocon activists.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] In this regard Hagel well-represents the American people. competent. More than a decade later they have no idea why Americans are still dying. Climate.16.13 General.Planet Debate Politics 1. Americans also are tired of Afghanistan. democratic governance in Kabul. Debt. Citizenship p. They are angry after being lied to about the Iraq war. Backing for war with Iran likely would dissipate once the high costs became evident.

For this reason he proposes negotiation. even with diplomatic untouchables such as Hamas and Hezbollah. he understands—out of both personal experience and practical consequence—that war is best avoided. isn‟t likely to be intimidated by someone with stars on his shoulders. Unlike the war-happy Neocons. 1.16. .forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] It is hard to think of a better candidate to run the Pentagon under such circumstances than Chuck Hagel. While recognizing that war can be necessary. Citizenship p. Cato Institute fellow. he sees military force as a last resort.Planet Debate Politics 1. 20 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD HAGEL BELIEVES USE OF MILITARY IS A LAST RESORT Doug Bandow. Hagel. if possible.14. Debt. Someone has to challenge the generals to rethink the status quo.13 [http://www. Guns.13 General. He also is likely to bring a jaundiced eye to Pentagon budget-making. Hagel. who could be the first enlisted man ever to end up as Defense Secretary. Climate.

21 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – UNCERTAIN – NEEDS POLITICAL CAPITAL OPPOSITION IS FIERCE – WILL TAKE POLITICAL CAPITAL FOR NOMINATION Doug Bandow. better yet. as one would expect.html] The bitter tone of gridlock in Washington has left many Americans hoping for a more collaborative environment to face the country’s most pressing challenges. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska to be America‟s next secretary of defense. The overriding objection to him is that he is the living refutation of everything the War Party stands for. Unlike outgoing Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. He fought in battle. Citizenship p.16. coopted.forbes. . Cato Institute fellow. R-Mississippi.com/story/2013/01/why-hagel-is-the-wrong-choice-to-lead-thepentagon-86098.13 [http://www. Hagel is expected to provoke a divisive confirmation process — at a time when Congress should be focused on urgent budget issues that could dramatically change America’s defense strategy and capabilities. Not Hagel.13 General.14.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-ofchuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/] Nevertheless. and would be no Pentagon rubber stamp. Changes in the president’s Cabinet presented a prime opportunity for coming together. opposition to Hagel is fierce. Debt. Hagel. Climate.Planet Debate Politics 1. Guns. THE HAGEL NOMINATION WILL BE DIVISIVE Senator Roger Vicker.13 [http://www. A liberal with no military experience and little confidence in military matters might be cowed or.14.politico. offers skepticism rather than enthusiasm for new interventions. who was approved unanimously by the Senate. 1. understands the human cost. Instead of seeking consensus. 1. President Barack Obama has forced confrontation with the nomination of former Sen.

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HAGEL NOMINATION – NO IMPACT
HAGEL JUST REFLECTS OBAMA’S FOREIGN POLICY
John Arquilla, Foreign Policy, 1.14.13

[http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/14/for_defense_less_beef_more_chuck? wp_login_redirect=0] So, whether the issue is the surge in Iraq, the looming drawdown in Afghanistan, or the size of the defense budget, Hagel's views offer insights that all should hear -- and should spark useful, long-overdue debate about military and security affairs. His clear agreement with what I see to be an emergent Obama Doctrine makes it possible to pursue a consistent, quite innovative strategic path in this age of irregular wars. HAGEL WON’T FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE OBAMA’S MIDDLE EAST POLICY
John Zogby, president Arab American Institute, 1.14.13

[http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=56443] One thing should be clear, however, and that is if Hagel is confirmed there will not be a radical change in this Administration's approach to Israel or an American acceptance of an Iran with nuclear weapons. Hagel and Kerry, like Obama, are supporters of Israel. The Administration will continue to support that state's defense requirements and, in all likelihood, will not rush headlong into a new Middle East peace initiative since they appear to believe that conditions for that simply do not exist. At the same time, Israel will continue to face the U.S.'s growing displeasure with its occupation and settlement policies. And the Administration will not end its pressure on Iran to be more transparent with its nuclear ambitions and agree with international community's insistence that they forsake advanced enrichment. But the Obama Administration will now be fortified by a team that understands that engagement and not foolish adventurism is the best way to resolve the standoff while insuring that we not be dragged into another potentially devastating Middle East war.

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HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD
HAGEL WASN’T WRONG ABOUT THE IRAQ SURGE – IT DIDN’T WORK
Arianna Huffington, Huffington Post, 1.15.13

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/neocon-nightmare-thetrut_b_2478673.html] The relationship between Hagel and McCain goes back a long time. McCain was one of Hagel's earliest supporters and Hagel was one of the few who jumped on the "Straight Talk Express," back when McCain was taking on what he called "agents of intolerance" in the Republican Party. Unlike McCain, Hagel managed to stay on the Straight Talk Express. And now McCain is grasping at straws over Hagel's skepticism about success of the surge strategy in Iraq, something McCain finds "bizarre." Back when it was being considered, Hagel said "This is a Ping-Pong game with American lives," and that "we better be damn sure we know what we're doing, all of us, before we put 22,000 more Americans into that grinder." Since then it's become accepted gospel in Washington that the surge was successful. Accepted gospel that is, once again, wrong. Doug Ollivant was an army planning officer in Iraq who was one of those who actually implemented the surge. "The surge really didn't work, per se," Ollivant, now with the New America Foundation says, adding, "Fundamentally, it was the Iraqis trying to find a solution, and they did." A study by U.S. Special Forces officer Maj. Joshua Thiel came to the same conclusion. Thiel looked at where and when the additional surge troops were deployed and compared that to subsequent drops in violence. As Foreign Policy's Robert Haddick put it, Thiel concluded that there was no significant correlation between the arrival of U.S. reinforcements and subsequent changes in the level of violence in Iraq's provinces... the connection between surge troops and the change in the level of incidents seems entirely random.

Planet Debate Politics 1.16.13 General, Hagel, Guns, Climate, Debt, Citizenship

p. 24 of 62

HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD
HAGEL AVOIDS RECKLESS, IDEOLOGICAL POLICIES
John Zogby, president Arab American Institute, 1.14.13

[http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=56443] I know Chuck Hagel. He is a thoughtful and sober advocate of the realist approach to foreign policy. His priority has always been to defend America's interests in the world through diplomacy and, only when absolutely necessary, to commit American forces to combat missions in defense of those interests. By disposition, he has an aversion to ideologically-based reckless behavior. His criticism of the war in Iraq, his opposition to the reckless use of force against Iran, and his critique of Israeli actions that impede peace are wellknown. So too was his refusal while in the Senate to participate in AIPAC's frequent "hoop jumping" exercises. He resisted signing, as he termed them, the pro-Israel lobby's "stupid letters."

He said his “top priority” as secretary of defense would be the planning of military contingencies related to Iran. As a two-term senator. Citizenship p. Schumer said Hagel left no doubt that he would support a very aggressive posture toward Tehran. Climate. ―Senator Hagel rejected a strategy of containment and expressed the need to keep all options on the table in confronting that country. Senator Hagel made a crystal-clear promise that he would do „whatever it takes‟ to stop Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. 25 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL GOOD – IRAN HAGEL WILL NOT BE SOFT ON IRAN Washington Post 1. Debt.com/politics/schumer-to-back-hagel/2013/01/15/ffd46fc85f23-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story. Hagel had been unique in positions calling for direct talks the Iranian regime and opposing unilateral sanctions by the United States against the renegade regime.15. But he didn’t stop there.html] Schumer said that his support was sown up after Hagel — whom Obama formally nominated last week after a month of preparation — committed to several positions regarding Iran that met with Schumer‟s preference. In a very detailed statement.‖ as its leaders like to assert. Guns.‖ Schumer said. including the use of military force. ―In our conversation.14 [http://www.13 General.16. Hagel.washingtonpost. . Hagel also pledged to continue supporting the delivery of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to Israel and in general supported Israel’s right to a strong ―qualitative military edge.Planet Debate Politics 1.

then we might well be on our way to a healthier political environment where realism trumps ideology and where honest political differences can be debated in our government without fear of retribution. Will Hagel fold? Will Obama surrender to pressure and pull his nominee. 1. . What is at stake for Republicans is far more than just Israel and Iran. I am bracing myself for a degree of disappointment. and should Democrats decide to choose to support their president instead of the lobby and the pressure from the neo-cons. no doubt. I am also prepared to acknowledge that Hagel's confirmation is not a sure thing. but the outcome is far from certain. The stakes are high.com/english/?id=56443] At this point.13 General. They will try to beat him into submission. They will want him to demonstrate that he is more committed to Israel and more hawkish on Iran than he has been in the past. into two failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (which they cannot admit were failures) and has them still advocating for more aggressive military engagements in Syria and Iran. While I certainly hope that Hagel won't fold under the pressure.S.middle-east-online.16. Citizenship p.middle-east-online. OUTCOME ON HAGEL FAR FROM CERTAIN John Zogby. but have no way of knowing how this will play out. Climate. Their questions will. Hagel. focus on his support for Israel and his attitudes toward Iran. we know what the stakes are. forcing him to use the very shopworn language found the AIPAC letters he refused to sign when he served in the Senate.14. president Arab American Institute. Debt.13 [http://www. 26 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – NOT CERTAIN HAGEL’S NOMINATION IS NOT A SURE THING John Zogby. president Arab American Institute.com/english/?id=56443] Republicans see the possibility of further weakening and distracting the president by "roughing up" his nominee and will in all likelihood subject Hagel to tough grilling when he finally appears before the Senate Armed Services Committee for confirmation. It is the entire neo-conservative enterprise that led the U.13 [http://www. Guns.14. risking defeat and embarrassment? Or will the Senate defeat Hagel's bid for confirmation? Any of these would be a setback of substantial proportions. And while I believe the president is committed and will fight for his nominee. making clear his support for Israel while asserting his freedom and independence to criticize Israeli policies when necessary. On the other hand should Hagel stay the course.Planet Debate Politics 1. 1.

politico. his nomination calls into question the national security priorities of the president‟s second term. At the very least. .13 [http://www. In the past. Guns. Debt. In choosing Hagel. 27 of 62 HAGEL NOMINATION – HAGEL BAD HAGEL AS DEFENSE SECRETARY WOULD BE A SIGN OF WEAKNESS Senator Roger Vicker.Planet Debate Politics 1. the president seems to suggest that his approach will be to downplay American leadership rather than strengthen it.com/story/2013/01/why-hagel-is-the-wrong-choice-to-lead-thepentagon-86098.14.13 General.html] My opposition to this nomination stems in part from Hagel‟s flawed vision for America‟s role in the world and whether his selection signals a move toward a weaker defense by a second Obama administration. R-Mississippi. Hagel’s decisions and statements have drawn significant concerns from Democrats and Republicans. Hagel. 1. Climate.16. One is right to wonder whether Hagel‟s views on issues affecting the country‟s national security interests would shape his doctrine as defense secretary. Citizenship p.

and it is vital that his panel gets it right and that Congress immediately takes action on its report. Debt.com/2013/01/15/opinion/the-moment-for-action-on-gun-laws. Hagel. Conn.14. Climate.13 [http://www.’s commission is about to present a series of recommendations for new laws.nytimes. Vice President Joseph Biden Jr.13 General.html] The next few weeks represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity to harden the nation‟s gun laws and reduce the threat of rapid-fire violence in America. A month after the slaughter of 20 children and seven adults in Newtown.Planet Debate Politics 1.16. 28 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – BRINK OPPORTUNITY IS RIGHT NOW FOR GUN CONTROL New York Times 1. .. Citizenship p. Guns.

‖ Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. It is largely supported by legitimate gun dealers. This first proposal is one that Democrats believe has widespread support. 29 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – CONTROL WORKS UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE New York Times 1. parking-lot sales and Web sites would reduce the cashand-carry anonymity of millions of gun transactions..nytimes. Federal prosecutors. who have a dismal record of pursuing charges against those who lie on a gun application. And it would have no effect on law-abiding buyers who want a hunting rifle or a handgun to keep at home. Obama’s former chief of staff. Climate. said at an event Monday at the liberal Center for American Progress (CAP). and 18 other states have submitted fewer than 100. now that the Internet has made it easy for private individuals to buy and sell guns without screening. Debt.csmonitor.13 [http://www.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0114/How-totackle-gun-violence-5-things-liberal-groups-want] Universal background checks.13 [http://www.13 General. 10 states have submitted a grand total of zero names to the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System. The reason that both the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and Mayors Against Illegal Guns have made universal background checks their top priority is that 40 percent of gun sales now take place privately.16. That’s an exception. need to enforce the system vigorously. Citizenship p. private sellers make up about 40 percent of weapon transfers in the US every year. no matter who it’s from.. Guns. is essential. Requiring background checks at gun shows. At present. who already have to conduct the checks and have long grumbled about competition from those who do not. Currently.14. that’s not a loophole. .html] The need for background checks on every gun buyer has never been greater. UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS WILL CUT GUN VIOLENCE Christian Science Monitor 1. even among Republican lawmakers: If you buy a gun.14. putting buyers on notice that their sale is being recorded and can be traced. ―When you’ve got 40 percent of the guns that are going out [not receiving background checks]. including most guns that are later used in crimes.Planet Debate Politics 1.com/2013/01/15/opinion/the-moment-for-action-on-gun-laws. Hagel. Such a law should be supplemented by a presidential order requiring federal and state agencies to contribute to the background check system with criminal and mental health information. ―Shutting that exemption. you have to pass a background check. according to CAP. What’s known in some places as the ―gun show loophole‖ means that those barred from buying guns by other statutes can effectively circumvent those laws by obtaining a weapon from a private weapons dealer.” This recommendation requires strong legislative language to require states to contribute information toward national databases used for assessing whether an individual should be allowed to purchase a weapon.

go. Climate. 1.13 General. setting the stage for what could be the largest Congressional battle over gun legislation in decades. Guns. .16. and could outline his plan publicly as early as Wednesday..15. ABC News.” legislation to expand background checks. One month after the deadly school shooting in Newtown. Hagel. 30 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – OBAMA WILL PUSH OBAMA WILL PROPOSE BROAD GUN CONTROL MEASURES Mary Bruce.13 [http://abcnews. Obama has already promised to push for a renewal of the 1994 ban on some types of semiautomatic assault rifles. Obama is reviewing the recommendations of Vice President Biden’s task force. Citizenship p. Debt. which were delivered to him on Monday.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/obama-to-unveil-road-map-to-halt-gunviolence/] President Obama is expected to detail a broad plan this week to curb gun violence.Planet Debate Politics 1. Conn. also known as the “assault weapons ban. and limits on highcapacity magazine clips.

one of the most outspoken advocates for increased gun control.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0114/How-totackle-gun-violence-5-things-liberal-groups-want] Restrict the sale of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines If background checks enjoy the most consensus. importation and manufacturing of military-style assault weapons and highcapacity ammunition feeding devices.13 [http://abcnews.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/obama-to-unveil-road-map-to-halt-gunviolence/] The most contentious items on the president‟s to-do list will require Congressional approval and are expected to face fierce opposition from gun rights groups.13 [http://www. Guns.‖ But others have been a bit more specific at reviving a policy created under President Bill Clinton but allowed to lapse under President George W. .16.go. transfer. 1.13 General.15. ABC News. Conn. The Brady Campaign. including the National Rifle Association which has already vowed to oppose efforts to limit access to guns and ammunition. Feinstein and other Democratic Senators plan to introduce legislation to this effect early in the new session of Congress. Climate. RESTRICTING ASSAULT WEAPONS IS HIGHLY CONTROVERSIAL Christian Science Monitor 1. it would freeze ownership of weapons like that used in the Newtown. Dianne Feinstein (D) of California that would halt the ―sale..14. gives only a single broad sentence to the subject in its policy recommendations: ―Limit the availability of military-style weapons and high capacity ammunition magazines that are designed for mass killing. massacre at its current level. Bush. CAP endorsed a proposal by Sen. Hagel. 31 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – OBAMA NEEDS POLITICAL STRENGTH OBAMA WILL FACE FIERCE OPPOSITION ON GUN VIOLENCE Mary Bruce. Debt.csmonitor.Planet Debate Politics 1. Citizenship p. what to do about restricting access to assault weapons is perhaps the most controversial.‖ In other words.

.latimes. Much slimmer majorities expressed support for two other policy options mentioned by Obama — banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.5165926.14.Planet Debate Politics 1. Guns. Citizenship p.13 General. A Washington Post-ABC News survey and another by the Pew Research Center found that more than 80% of respondents want federal background checks to be conducted for private gun sales.13 [http://www.0. Hagel.16. Climate. where they are not currently required. including sales at gun shows. Debt.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-guns20130115.story] Two polls released Monday found broad public support for stronger background check laws. 32 of 62 GUN VIOLENCE – PUBLIC SUPPORTS CONTROL PUBLIC SUPPORTS SPECIFICS OF GUN CONTROL Los Angeles Times 1.

Not the broad path to citizenship. Then instead of adding on a poison pill so Democrats will block the bill. . Slate. 1.13 [http://www.13 [http://www. a comprehensive bill that includes a path to citizenship for the overwhelming majority of unauthorized migrants already living in the United States. and help for DREAMers—they say they want. For the major immigration-advocacy groups. and few influential people have any real beef with it. the goal is clear. Guns. Citizenship p.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/15/immigration_reform_will_obama_g et_rolled. If Republicans want to get serious about it they should be able to make it work. Debt. REPUBLICANS COULD BLOCK THE PATH TO CITIZENSHIP Matthew Yglesias.15. why would they block it? It packages three things—more skilled immigration. 1. and it seems to me that there's a fair chance that a nimble Republican Party could essentially roll the Democratic coalition and pass an "immigration reform" bill that doesn't offer the path Latino advocacy groups are looking for.slate.13 General. it's a great idea on the merits. more enforcement. After all. 33 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – GOP CAN DEFEAT GOP COMPROMISES SHORT OF A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP COULD DEFEAT IT Matthew Yglesias.html] The last House GOP effort to split the high-tech visas question from the path to citizenship question was an absurd partisan ploy. Blocking it because it doesn't also do the broad amnesty that liberals want and conservatives hate would require the kind of fanaticism that is the exact opposite of Obama's approach to politics. but something small like the DREAM Act. you need to add a sweetener.slate.html] Of the major policy issues under discussion in Washington. but that I think Democrats will have a hard time actually blocking. Slate. Climate.16. The centerpiece would be something on increased immigration of skilled workers. But many other aspects of immigration law are in the mix as part of a proposed deal.Planet Debate Politics 1. High tech visas will easily generate revenue to pay for some stepped-up enforcement. Hagel. "immigration reform" stands out for having unusually undefined content.15. That's something the tech industry wants very much.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/15/immigration_reform_will_obama_g et_rolled. Now you've got a package that falls massively short of what Latino groups are looking for.

Unions now indicate. have opposed guest-worker immigration programs in the past because they allow for an influx of cheap labor from overseas. A major fault-line: Whether to give illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship or a pathway to residency. he can get immigration reform done. 34 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – WILL PASS PAST OPPONENTS OF CIR NOW LIKELY TO SUPPORT Marc Caputo. this is the time.15. ―If President Obama can get health care reform through as divisive as it was.13 General. Diaz-Balart said because it's not an election year. that they're willing to support a comprehensive immigration package.politico.16. which tend to support Democrats.com/story/2013/01/obama-immigration-reform-congress86210. Debt. Ros-Lehtinen pointed out that Democrats. might be more willing to vote for immigration-reform plans as the lessons of 2012's elections are still fresh.Planet Debate Politics 1. Politico. Labor unions. too. So there's less chance for hyper-partisan politics. Guns.hispanicbusiness.Com 1. Hagel. HispanicBusiness. It's also a new Congress. too.htm] Diaz-Balart and Ros-Lehtinen say this is the year that Congress needs to pass immigration reform.15. Climate. Diaz-Balart said.com/2013/1/15/rubio_obama_diazbalart_roslehtinen_jeb_bush. however. who blocked major congressional immigration legislation in 2010 and 2006. . Citizenship p. 1. Still.” said Consumer Electronics Association President and CEO Gary Shapiro at a POLITICO Pro Tech Deep Dive focused on the 113th Congress. have had problems with their voters when it comes to immigration reform.13 [www.html] A top technology lobbyist said Tuesday he believes President Barack Obama has the savvy and political skill to navigate an immigration bill through even a divided Congress. And Republicans.13 [http://www. OBAMA WILL GET IMMIGRATION REFORM – EASIER THAN HEALTH CARE WAS Steve Friess.

Debt. including immigration reform.16. 1.13 [http://www.html] Serious immigration reform will be addressed later and will be narrower than some may hope. Republicans were forced to accept that they could not extend tax breaks for everyone.13 [http://www.13 General. George Washington Univ. Citizenship p. the president chose politics over policy. further souring relations with Congress. Partisan poisoning: One of the reasons a grand bargain was not reached was that President Obama was most intent on winning a partisan victory over Republicans on raising tax rates. 35 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – WON’T PASS OBAMA WILL COMPROMISE ON CIR DUE TO TIMING AND PARTISANSHIP Mark Kennedy. By choosing to focus more on the subsidiary goal of raising rates than on the primary goal of raising revenue to reduce deficits.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718. will be addressed in the manner he outlines in his upcoming inaugural address. Resolving the even more contentious matter of reducing spending in such a pestilent environment is sure to consume much time and energy.000 threshold to one of $450.000. Professor political management.huffingtonpost. Guns. . Hagel. Climate.15.huffingtonpost. President Obama moved on taxes from a $250. just as we witnessed in the tax debate. Reaching an agreement takes time and requires each side to give. FISCAL CLIFF PROVES THE PRESIDENT WILL HAVE TO NEGOTIATE ON CIR Mark Kennedy. While President Obama clearly had the upper hand politically in the tax debate. George Washington Univ. five factors are operative: Awaiting lame duck status: Second-term presidents normally have a short window of time to pass serious legislation before Congress picks up the mantle and starts driving the agenda.Planet Debate Politics 1. The sparse result of months of partisan wrestling over the fiscal cliff portends a reduced likelihood that any of President Obama's second-term priorities.15. the lever of the debt ceiling tilts the playing field back to even when it comes to resolving the new cliff that looms just two months away. 1. Compromise requires an effort from both sides.html] With a focus on the timing and the shape of immigration reform.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718. Professor political management. Continuing fiscal cliff battles: One consequence of not reaching a grand bargain on the fiscal cliff is that it ensures that further contests over how to resolve the nation's ongoing deficits will suck much of the oxygen out of the most opportune time slot for legislative action: the period immediately following the president's inaugural address and the State of the Union address.

36 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – INTERNAL LINK – AGENDA CROWDING ADDING ISSUES TO THE AGENDA. Professor political management. George Washington Univ.13 [http://www.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718. regardless of its merits. immigration and tax reform legislation are all desperately needed. Clearly energy. LIKE THE PLAN. Hagel. will decrease the likelihood of action on other priorities and will elevate the level of partisan rancor. 1. Debt. In his first inaugural address President Obama laid out a broad agenda but failed to achieve results until he narrowed his focus to health-care reform. Guns.huffingtonpost. but all cannot be done at once.16.html] Lack of focus: In order to really drive the direction of a major reform effort.15. Citizenship p. RISKS CROWDING OUT CIR Mark Kennedy.13 General. Adding gun reform to the mix. . a president must prioritize and avoid cluttering the playing field with numerous other initiatives at the same time.Planet Debate Politics 1. Climate.

They know that the party faces an existential crisis: The GOP has to regain its competitiveness with Hispanic voters or go the way of the Whigs.Planet Debate Politics 1. 1. Democrats are more united than ever on immigration and are determined to make Republicans play or pay. Debt. Hagel.13 General. Climate. movement conservatives and Republican leaders alike are seeing the demographic writing on the wall and calling for the GOP to embrace immigration reform. Guns. Meanwhile. Founder.html] For Democrats this proved that the best way to deal with this so-called Republican wedge issue is not to run from it but to lean into it.15. What does this mean for 2013 and 2014? It means that the president will make immigration reform his top post-fiscalcliff legislative priority. with evident success. In 2012 President Obama showed that it could work on a national scale. 37 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – INEVITABLE CIR WILL PASS – IT’S INEVITABLE DUE TO POLITICAL INCENTIVES Frank Sharry. America’s Voice.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025. This is what Harry Reid in Nevada and Michael Bennet in Colorado did in 2010. .16. (Read the new America's Voice report on immigration lessons from the 2012 elections for more 2012 analysis).13 [http://www.huffingtonpost. Citizenship p.

html] So what is likely to happen? A broad legislative proposal. Once again Speaker Boehner will find a bipartisan majority in the House. In the end the House leadership will find a way. one that puts 11 million undocumented immigrants on the road to citizenship. Citizenship p.13 General. The bottom line: Immigration reform is an idea whose time has come.13 [http://www. 1. with bipartisan support.Planet Debate Politics 1. Debt. a bipartisan breakthrough in the Senate could send those numbers as high as 3 to 1.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025. Democrats have promised it and Republicans need it. . Latino Republicans and conservative thought leaders." And while he will feel pressure from some on the hard right to resist reform. With comprehensive immigration reform favored by the public by a 2-to-1 margin. will be championed by the president. Founder. drafted on a bipartisan basis and approved by the Senate. sometime this spring.15. They simply will not want to bear the blame for keeping the Senate and the White House out of reach for Republicans for a generation.huffingtonpost. America’s Voice. Americans want it. but not if he insists on a "majority of the majority. he will feel at least as much pressure from others on the right. Hagel. 38 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – INEVITABLE REPUBLICAN OPPOSITION WILL BE OVERCOME BY OUTSIDE GROUPS – CIR WITH A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP IS INEVITABLE Frank Sharry. law enforcement officials.16. Climate. evangelicals. such as business executives. Then it will be up to the House of Representatives. Guns.

" the official said. In a briefing with The Huffington Post.' and then you look at what we're actually doing. but Republicans are still calling for more before they will consider reform.huffingtonpost." STUDIES PROVE WE’VE PRIORITIZED BORDER ENFORCEMENT ALREADY Elise Foley.com/news/the-road-forward] It starts with a lesson from his first term. "But if you go back and look at the 2006 and 2007 bills. the White House has learned. and devotes massive sums to policing the borders. such as an enforcement mechanism and high-skilled worker visas. a senior administration official said the White House believes it has met enforcement goals and must now move to a comprehensive solution. 39 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – ALREADY DONE BORDER ENFORCEMENT BORDER ENFORCEMENT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED – THIS GETS BY ONE OF THE GOP’S KEY ISSUES ON CIR Elise Foley.15. before other elements of immigration reform.16. The Huffington Post.13 [http://www. which found that the government is pouring more money into its immigration agencies than the other federal law-enforcement efforts combined.S. if you go back and look at John McCain's 10-point 'This is what I've got to get done before I'm prepared to talk about immigration. Republicans have demanded that the border be secured first. an author of the report and a former commissioner of the U. so it's really time. could result in passage of the less politically complicated pieces. Climate. The Huffington Post. said she hopes putting out more information can add to the immigration debate.huffingtonpost. Hagel. check. 1.com/news/the-road-forward] Last week. although there is always more to be done.15. won't be enough to win over Republicans. Citizenship p.13 General. Guns. The White House has met many of the desired metrics for border security. but not sufficiently touting its record of doing so. . The border is as secure as it's been in a generation or two. it's like 'check. while leaving out more contentious items such as a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. check. and Doris Meissner. Yet the administration has been by many measures the strictest ever on immigration enforcement. Immigration and Naturalization Service. "Enforcement is certainly part of the picture. There are some clear metrics to point to on the border in particular.' We're there. Debt. the enforcement-is-working argument was bolstered by a report from the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute. 1. Enforcing the border. the White House worries.13 [http://www. Going down that road.Planet Debate Politics 1. The administration is highly skeptical of claims from Republicans that immigration reform can or should be done in a piecemeal fashion.

English tests and "going to the back of the line. 40 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – OBAMA WILL PUSH THE PATH TO CITIZENSHIP WILL BE NON-NEGOTIABLE FOR OBAMA Elise Foley. The Huffington Post.Planet Debate Politics 1." which means waiting for possibly a long.huffingtonpost.15. and it will be a non-negotiable in his plan. Climate. Obama has consistently said that a path to citizenship is vital to immigration reform. It would likely involve fines. Debt. Citizenship p.16. It wouldn't be the "amnesty" decried by some on the right. Guns. Hagel. 1.13 General.com/news/the-road-forward] Citizenship will be another major question.13 [http://www. long time. .

The polarized Congress could barely stave off the so-called "fiscal cliff" debt-andspending controversy last month. "I don't think the basic reality has changed. The Huffington Post. Debt. . They note that the administration has in some cases decided not to deport undocumented immigrants it detects. Mark Krikorian. Republicans in Congress. 41 of 62 PATH TO CITIZENSHIP – NOT INEVITABLE FINAL PASSAGE OF CIR IS STILL POLITICALLY UNCERTAIN Elise Foley. HispanicBusiness. if not most.com/2013/1/15/rubio_obama_diazbalart_roslehtinen_jeb_bush. 1. Hagel. Conservatives point to the deferred action policy for young undocumented immigrants and guidelines that put a low priority on removing some other categories of immigrants. Conservatives who stress the “enforcement first” approach don‟t think so.Com 1.15. Lamar Smith (R-Texas).hispanicbusiness. the emotions and the host of special interests involved in the immigration debate have paralyzed Congress for years.16. a key figure in the ongoing debate and the former head of the House Judiciary Committee. although the percentage of criminals being deported has gone up.15. Rep. Guns. rejects the findings of the Migration Policy Institute and fears that reform might not prevent future swells in unauthorized immigration -.13 General. of any new policy and the major sticking point for many.huffingtonpost. Conservatives see too much of what they regard as lenience in Obama's actions to date. after all.Planet Debate Politics 1. said on Monday that Congress shouldn't trust the president on "mass amnesty" and that a bill including citizenship "will have a hard time" in the House.a key goal.13 [www." Krikorian said of immigration politics.13 [http://www.com/news/the-road-forward] It's not clear whether the politics have changed enough for a bill to pass. Climate. executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies. STILL NO GUARANTEE THAT 2013 IS THAT DIFFERENT ON CIR Marc Caputo.htm] But the complexity. Such concerns allow some Republicans to draw a hard line on the idea of citizenship for the undocumented. It's unclear now if 2013 is any different. Citizenship p.

are simply not yet ready to compete with fossil fuels.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-dealwith-climate-change/] Renewable energy sources. Perhaps most important. We need new and far more advanced technologies. Guns.2. such as a tax or some other price on carbon dioxide emissions. Solar power. 42 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – OBAMA CAN BOOST RENEWABLES OBAMA’S CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES CAN BOOST RENEWABLE ENERGY Technology Review. And it will require market incentives. Citizenship p. Your administration can play a critical role in each of these areas. to encourage consumers and industry to use clean energy. 1. Climate. remains much more expensive than electricity generated from fossil fuels.13 [http://www.technologyreview. still generates less than 1 percent of our nation’s electricity and. Hagel. . Open Letter to President Obama. like solar and advanced biofuels. Only with broad public support can you hope to push a recalcitrant Congress into passing legislation that will establish some form of carbon pricing. Debt.Planet Debate Politics 1. Creating cleaner ways to produce energy will require inventions in physics and chemistry labs and innovations in how we scale up and test those inventions. from increasing funding for energy R&D to helping establish facilities where companies can share the costs and risks of testing new technologies. under most circumstances. you will need to rally the nation around the issue of tackling climate change.13 General. for example.16.

the glut of cheap natural gas created by advanced drilling technologies and by the nation‟s vast supply of shale gas has made it difficult for renewable energy to compete on price.Planet Debate Politics 1. Guns.16. 43 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – RENEWABLES NOT GROWING NATURAL GAS AND SHALE OIL DISCOVERIES ARE UNDERCUTTING RENEWABLE ENERGY Technology Review. Climate.technologyreview. Hagel. Citizenship p. Open Letter to President Obama.2. Already. . including natural gas and related deposits of shale oil.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-dealwith-climate-change/] Adding to our difficulties is the recent boom in our country’s production of fossil fuels. Debt.13 General. 1. but it is also a stark reminder that the motive for adopting non-fossil fuels is not market-driven but is—and always has been—a simple one: we must do it to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and begin stabilizing our climate. The inexpensive energy made available by these drilling activities is good news for the overall economy.13 [http://www.

Hagel. It is quite possible that if this is not done over the next four years. we can no longer wait without risking dramatic upheavals in global security and the health and welfare of hundreds of millions of the world‟s inhabitants. like you.6 metric gigatons in 2011. with no political consensus on how to solve it.2.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-dealwith-climate-change/] But as extensive and exacting analyses over the last decade have shown. Citizenship p. The International Energy Agency reports that global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record 31. and to start falling no later than 2017. The president who takes office that year will thus be facing a far more urgent problem—probably. 44 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – OBAMA KEY TO CLIMATE CHANGE OBAMA’S TERM WILL BE DECISIVE IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE BATTLE Technology Review. But as a president in his final term. To have a decent chance of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2 °C and avoiding the most devastating effects of climate change.13 [http://www. Guns. you have a chance to take risks.13 General. Debt. it will be too late.technologyreview. 1.16.6 metric gigatons. . You have the power and the opportunity to lay the groundwork for a new clean-energy policy that will help us avoid the worst consequences of climate change. Open Letter to President Obama. we will need carbon emissions to peak at no more than 32.Planet Debate Politics 1. Climate.

S. Guns.S.16.11. 45 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – GOVERNMENT ACTION NECESSARY NEW REPORTS SHOW GOVERNMENT ACTION NECESSARY TO PREVENT CLIMATE CHANGE Coral Davenport. Obama heard a wailing siren warning him to stick to his pledge: On Monday. Scientists said the evidence is unequivocal that the heat and catastrophic weather are linked to climate change caused by fossil-fuel pollution—and that without governmental action to stop that pollution. the spread of insecttransmitted disease. 1.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] This week.nationaljournal. Citizenship p. Debt. federal agencies concluded that rising temperatures caused by fossil fuel emissions have directly contributed to increased wildfires. Climate. . worse destruction is on the way. rising sea levels. melting glaciers and decreasing water supply across the U.S.13 [http://www.13 General. a new draft report by 13 U. It was also the nation‟s second-most-extreme year for destructive weather events. On Friday. The National Journal. Hagel. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that 2012 was by far the hottest year on record in the contiguous U.Planet Debate Politics 1. with 11 disasters sustaining $1 billion each in economic losses.

There is no way. Debt. The National Journal. a think tank.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] But the president doesn‟t have the luxury of time. Climate. the largest globalwarming polluter—fails to show it can meet its climate pledge. to have any credibility or influence. And in 2015.S. binding global treaty to cut carbon emissions enough to stave off the most catastrophic effects of climate change.S.‖ said Jennifer Morgan. At a 2009 United Nations summit. ―The new regulations on existing plants are going to be essential for the U.‖ . let alone sign on with any credibility to a future global treaty.Planet Debate Politics 1.S. there‟s no reason to expect the rest of the world‟s nations to live up to their obligations. The rest of the world is awaiting action from Washington. would reduce its carbon pollution 17 percent by 2020. It will make it very difficult for the U.13 [http://www. ―If the U. can meet its existing climate pledge. then other countries can hide behind the U. without either a new climate law from Congress or new EPA rules on existing power plants. Hagel.S. director of the climate and energy program at the World Resources Institute. IN THE NEXT YEAR WILL BE KEY TO GLOBAL LEADERSHIP ON CLIMATE CHANGE Coral Davenport.11.nationaljournal. Guns. Obama signed an accord pledging that the U.S.13 General. to meet its commitment internationally.16. And if the United States—historically.S. that the U. Citizenship p. is seen as not acting. 1. 46 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – OBAMA GLOBAL LEADERSHIP ACTION BY THE U. the nations of the world are scheduled to come together to sign a landmark.S. experts say.

47 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – COAL COMING BACK RISING SHALE PRICES MAKING COAL COMPETITIVE AGAIN – COAL CARBON EMISSIONS WILL START TO RISE John Parnell. Citizenship p. Now those figures are heading up again.6% drop in electricity related emissions at the UN climate talks in Doha last month but rising shale gas prices are making coal cost competitive again. In 2011 Coal’s share fell below 40% for the first time since 1978. Climate change envoy Todd Stern hailed the 8. 1. Responding to Climate Change. and emission levels will surely follow. Climate. Debt.rtcc.org/coal-comeback-threatens-obamas-climate-change-policy/] New figures released this week by the Energy information Administration (EIA) reveal that the use of coal by power plants is increasing again after being displaced by cheap domestic shale gas in recent years.10.13 [http://www. . Coal emits around twice the CO2 of natural gas per unit of energy generated as well as generating greater levels of other pollutants that damage human health. Hagel.16.Planet Debate Politics 1.13 General. Guns.

―This retirement announcement by Georgia Power is disappointing yet unsurprising.‖ said Energy and Power Subcommittee Chairman Ed Whitfield (R-KY) Georgia Power is replacing this coal capacity with two new nuclear reactors creating 5000 jobs during construction and 800 permanent positions afterwards. Debt.10.16.13 [http://www. 48 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – COAL REGULATIONS HELP THE ECONOMY REPLACING COAL PLANTS INCREASES JOBS John Parnell.rtcc. The latest press release by the committee states that Georgia Power is closing 15 coal units putting 500 jobs on the line. Citizenship p. . Two coal plants are also being converted by the company to burn cleaner.Planet Debate Politics 1. cheaper gas. Already. Hagel. Responding to Climate Change.org/coal-comeback-threatens-obamas-climate-change-policy/] The focus of the War on Coal accusations.13 General. 1. Guns. is jobs at coal power stations. Climate. creating 2000 jobs along the way. led by vocal climate change skeptic Fred Upton’s Energy and Commerce Committee. we have seen a number of coal plants fall victim to the Obama administration’s assault on coal and I would not be surprised if there are even more closures in the months ahead.

for example. International Herald Tribune. Hagel. Frank.nytimes. of Cornell University. made the basic case that high carbon taxes on gasoline would lead to more fuel-efficient cars. Frank. said in an interview with Elisabeth. Debt.16. Dr.4 percent in of gross domestic product in 2010 to 8. the Irish government is managing to balance its books. Citizenship p.13 [http://rendezvous.” An excellent article on Ireland‟s carbon tax boon points to the other part of the equation — despite three years of recession.3 percent of GDP in 2012 in part due to a new taxes on carbon — despite the economic downturn. Climate. 1. in part due to carbon taxes on cars. would slowly rise by somewhat less than $3 a gallon.13 General. and they seem to have adapted by driving substantially more efficient vehicles.‖ Connie Hedegaard. . ―This is a way to secure competitiveness in the future. suggested that a carbon tax of $300 for a ton of carbon emissions might be enough to structurally change the kind of cars Americans drive. gas and even garbage. 49 of 62 CLIMATE CHANGE – CARBON TAX HELPS ECONOMY CARBON TAX WOULD ENCOURAGE FUEL ECONOMY AND GREEN REVENUES Christopher Schuetze. Guns.11.com/2013/01/11/carbon-taxes-provoke-debate-oneconomic-impact/] The economist Robert H. He wrote: ―The price of gasoline.blogs. the European Union’s commissioner for climate action. Motorists in many countries already pay that much more than Americans do.Planet Debate Politics 1. in an opinion piece last year. Elisabeth Rosenthal reported late last year that Ireland’s deficit has decreased from 32.

the cost of doing business has gone up for retailers due to higher utility bills and costs accumulated throughout the supply chain. Climate. Debt.13 General.com/2013/01/11/carbon-taxes-provoke-debate-oneconomic-impact/] Opponents of carbon taxes are not sure about that claim to competitiveness. Hagel. Guns. Citizenship p. retailers are taking the hit of the carbon tax as consumers bypass the stores to pay household bills. it can make transport.nytimes. Meanwhile. Last month. In a climate of already suppressed retail spending. Russell Zimmerman. the head of the retail organization wrote in a statement: “The introduction of carbon pricing was a massive legislative change for small business and one which has had a significant impact.11.Planet Debate Politics 1. which eventually fall onto retailers’ bottom lines…‖ .13 [http://rendezvous. Depending on where the carbon tax is applied. the Australian Retailers Association released results of a survey in which they found that 80 percent of Australian retailers say their business has been negatively affected by the new carbon taxes in place in that country since July of 2012. International Herald Tribune.16. 1. utilities and production costs go up. 50 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – CARBON TAX HURTS ECONOMY CARBON TAX HURTS SMALL BUSINESSES IN AUSTRALIA Christopher Schuetze.blogs.

Citizenship p.org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] In particular. Hagel. and home heating oil.heritage. LESS COMPETITIVE David Kreutzer. energy-intensive industries and manufacturing would feel the adverse effects of a carbon tax. Economics Research Fellow." A carbon tax would unnecessarily reverse this resurgence.org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] Since an overwhelming majority of America's energy needs are met by carbon-emitting fossil fuels.13 [http://www. Businesses. lured by the prospect of abundant and cheap natural gas. . Heritage Foundation.8. thus depriving fossil-fuel-based companies much-needed cash for more efficient power generation. 51 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – CARBON TAX HURTS ECONOMY A CARBON TAX WOULD DAMAGE THE ECONOMY David Kreutzer. "With a new and abundant source of low-cost feedstock.16.S. if a company had to absorb the costs.heritage. Since low-income families spend a larger proportion of their income on energy. high energy costs would squeeze profit margins and prevent businesses from investing and expanding. 1. and fewer jobs. However. lower income. Economics Research Fellow. CARBON TAX WOULD MAKE THE U. faced with higher energy costs.13 [http://www. which comes at a time when many companies. would likely pass those costs on to consumers.13 General. diesel fuel. regulations of these fuels directly raise the cost of electricity.8. Guns. Investors might even move their funds away from energy companies and toward less regulated business enterprises. 1. The result is higher energy costs. chemical industry emphasizes. A recent KPMG analysis of the U. Climate. gasoline. Debt.S.Planet Debate Politics 1. a tax that increases energy prices would disproportionately affect the budgets of the poorest American families. Heritage Foundation. are moving to the United States. the US market has transformed to become one of the most advantageous markets for chemical production in the world.

it would reduce global temperatures by only a few tenths of a degree Celsius by the close of the century. 52 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – NO CARBON TAX SOLVENCY U. for example). . which shows little appetite for squeezing economic growth for the sake of the environment. Heritage Foundation.Planet Debate Politics 1.8.heritage. Even if the U.S.13 [http://www. CARBON TAX WOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON GLOBAL EMISSIONS David Kreutzer. were to curb carbon emissions 83 percent below 2005 levels by 2050 (what cap-and-trade bills required). Economics Research Fellow. 1.org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] Unilaterally reducing greenhouse gases would not make a dent on global emissions and. Hagel. consequently. would do next to nothing to reduce global temperatures.13 General. Guns. Citizenship p. Debt. Climate. This is because future carbon emissions will come overwhelmingly from the developing world (China and India.S.16.

53 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE – CLIMATE CHANGE – NO U. SOLVENCY AMERICAN INFLUENCE ON OTHER EMISSIONS IS WISHFUL THINKING David Kreutzer.13 General. the rest of the world would follow suit.S. leads in reducing emissions.org/research/reports/2013/01/carbon-tax-would-raiseunemployment-not-revenue] A common argument is that if the U.S. Citizenship p. 1.16. According to a recent report from the World Resources Institute. reliable electricity (especially since many areas do not even have access to electricity) and have more pressing environmental needs. China and India alone account for 76 percent of the proposals.4 million megawatts. Debt.200 coal-fired power plants in 59 different countries totaling over 1. Heritage Foundation. But this is clearly not the case.13 [http://www.heritage. It is simply wishful thinking to assume that these countries would follow America's lead and curb economic growth to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Guns. Developing countries want access to cheap. the developing world has massive expansions planned to increase coal consumption. Hagel. Economics Research Fellow. .8. Despite actions taken by the EPA to regulate carbon dioxide.Planet Debate Politics 1. Climate. there are plans to build nearly 1.

Climate.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] Under the terms of a Supreme Court ruling and the nation‟s clean-air laws. possibly costing jobs in the process. president of the advocacy group Clean Air Watch. Hagel. ―In terms of actual real emissions. . The question the administration is grappling with is when to roll out the rule. Guns. The new limits will ignite raging political opposition from the nation’s most powerful fossil-fuel interests and likely lead to the shutdown of many of the dirtiest coal plants.nationaljournal.Planet Debate Politics 1.16. such as coal-fired power plants and oil refineries.11.” said Frank O‟Donnell.13 [http://www. this is the mother of all climate rules.13 General. The rule could have a profound environmental impact by reducing the nation‟s global-warming pollutants by up to 20 percent. Debt. Citizenship p. to slash their emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming. The National Journal. 54 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE .CLIMATE CHANGE – REGULATION HAS HUGE BENEFIT OBAMA CAN ENACT A MAJOR GREENHOUSE POLLUTANT REDUCTION REGULATION WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL Coral Davenport. It will also be met with an avalanche of efforts by industry and lawmakers to overturn it. 1. either in Congress or in the courts. the Environmental Protection Agency is required to issue a regulation that will force existing industrial polluters.

insisting that Obama has “the authority under existing law to achieve urgently needed reductions in the carbon pollution that is disrupting our climate and damaging our health. 1. 150.CLIMATE CHANGE – PRESSURE TO ENACT REGULATIONS OUTSIDE GROUPS WILL PRESSURE OBAMA TO ENACT STRICT CLIMATE CHANGE REGULATIONS ON CARBON POLLUTERS Coral Davenport.nationaljournal.11.Planet Debate Politics 1.000 small businesses sent Obama a letter urging him to use his executive authority to enact climate regulations on existing polluters. That excuse is now gone. Climate. And advocates know it.” On Friday. The National Journal. Debt.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-allclimate-change-regulations-20130110] The Obama administration has sat on the rule affecting existing polluters for months to avoid issuing a potential job-killer in an election year. This week. in a rare show of unity.13 General. Citizenship p. 70 environmental organizations sent a letter to the White House. . Hagel.16.13 [http://www. 55 of 62 AFFIRMATIVE . Guns.

there is little that China or any other country can do to influence the outcome. "While the entire world will suffer if the negotiations reach a standoff. Hagel. But others say a sudden selloff would be damaging to other countries' economic interests.15. The report also cites long-term concerns of some US officials that persistent volatility in the dollar caused by a debt default would bolster calls in the international community to end its status as the world's reserve currency.13 [http://usa. Some analysts believe a loss of confidence in US debt.cn/epaper/2013-01/15/content_16120098. inducing others to follow and causing a run on the dollar in world markets.htm] Despite the stakes.com. China and the rest of the world are basically bystanders in the fiscal-policy drama playing out in the US. Guns.13 General." he said. according to a report by the Council on Foreign Relations. inasmuch as many economies are tied to that of the United States. much less a debt default by Washington.chinadaily. 56 of 62 DEBT CEILING – DOLLAR IMPACT DEBT DEFAULT WOULD RISK ABANDONMENT OF THE DOLLAR China Daily 1.16. .Planet Debate Politics 1. Debt. Prasad said. could prompt foreign creditors to unload large portions of their holdings. Citizenship p. Climate.

ncpolicywatch. the debt ceiling has been an annoyance.13 [http://www. As a bipartisan litany of mainstream economists have warned. Citizenship p.16.13 General. furious that in the recent tussle over the ―fiscal cliff‖ they caved in on tax increases and have no spending cuts to show for it. and research and development. affording whichever party was out of power the opportunity to extract concessions before allowing normal borrowing to resume.Planet Debate Politics 1.economist. Debt. But as American politics has become more polarised. Climate. healthcare. Defiant Democrats are floating crackpot responses such as issuing a $1 trillion coin to avoid the debt ceiling or invoking the 14th amendment to the constitution. refusing to increase the debt limit will inflict significant damage to the national economy and likely pitch us into another recession—either by ensuring the federal government defaults on its existing debt or by significantly shrinking current federal expenditures. it has become an instrument of mass financial destruction. Republicans. war-fighting expenses.12. 57 of 62 DEBT CEILING – IMPACT THREATS TO DEFAULT ARE WEAPONS OF MASS FINANCIAL DESTRUCTION The Economist 1. It may even have done some good by raising the political price of deficits. In the summer of 2011 Republicans openly used the threat of default to force Mr Obama and Democrats into a deficit-cutting deal. Hagel. Guns. including payouts to Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries. which they say forbids default. REFUSING TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING WOULD THROW THE ECONOMY BACK INTO A RECESSION The Progressive Pulse 1.com/news/leaders/21569423-debt-ceiling-america-serves-nouseful-purpose-and-should-be-abolished-cliff] Most of the time. . are spoiling for another fight. The episode prompted one credit-rating agency to strip America of its triple-A rating.13 [pulse.15.org/2013/01/15/will-us-house-refuse-to-pay-nations-bills-allowdefault/] The consequences of refusing a debt limit increase are very real. highways. and on K-12 education.

Climate. Guns. 58 of 62 DEBT CEILING – IMPACT . And largely ineffective if the goal is deficit reduction.13 [pulse.org/2013/01/15/will-us-house-refuse-to-pay-nations-bills-allowdefault/] On the one hand. as future borrowing would cost significantly more than it does now under ultra-low interest rates.16. the impacts on the stability of the global economy would likely be catastrophic. Debt.13 General.ncpolicywatch. Citizenship p. since—ironically—this approach would also likely result in more long-term debt than under the current approach. Given the importance of the dollar as an international reserve currency. a significant downgrade in in our nation‟s credit-rating. Hagel.ECONOMY REFUSAL TO PAY BONDHOLDERS WOULD CAUSE A CATASTROPHIC IMPACT TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The Progressive Pulse 1. if the Treasury foregoes paying bondholders. . the result would be national default.Planet Debate Politics 1. and a dramatic increase in interest rates by risk-averse investors.15.

13 [http://english. As for the future.html] At present there is no alternative currency rivaling the dollar or it will displace the U.16. They have delayed the euro‟s emergence as a full-fledged rival while accelerating the emergence of the renminbi.Planet Debate Politics 1. it’s safe to say that the center of gravity of the global economy is shifting toward China.11. Barry Eichengreen.13 General. Citizenship p. 59 of 62 DEBT CEILING – AT: DOLLAR SCENARIO THERE IS NO PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE DOLLAR RIGHT NOW Dr.net/views/2013/01/11/259854. but the size of the shift away from the dollar will be mainly depends on finding suitable competitor (or replacement) of the dollar. the world may turn into a multi-currency system. Middle East Analyst. Hagel. Guns. in his excellent report ―Is the Age of Dollar Dominance Coming to an End?‖ published recently by the Global Financial Institute puts it bluntly: “Recent events in the world economy have reinforced the dollar‟s international role. greenback for the throne that sits currently.alarabiya. Climate. Naser AL-Tamimi. India and emerging economies and that could suggest. But they have done nothing to alter the central conclusions (…) the dollar remains the only true global currency for the time being.S. Debt. a professor of economics and political Science at the University of California. Berkeley.” . 1.

13 [http://news.com/FallStreet/1358184058. Guns.Planet Debate Politics 1.Com. beyond central banks slowly pecking away at gold. or harsh words from countries like Brazil and Russia. However. FallStreet. 1. and key countries like China are loath to stop using the dollar and/or purchasing Treasuries due to the negative shock that doing so would wrought on their economies. Debt. Hagel. .16. Climate.14.13 General. With so many actors terrified of rocking the boat.goldseek. 60 of 62 DEBT CEILING – AT: DOLLAR SCENARIO CHALLENGERS ARE TOO INVESTED IN DOLLARS TO THREATEN IT Brady Willett. grotesque debt is permitted to grow unfettered thanks to the nearly universal conclusion that ending USD hegemony now would cause a global crisis of unthinkable proportions.php] Be it dreams of a gold dinar and pricing oil in Euros. the vast majority of institutional money prefers to run in the Treasury market. Citizenship p. not much has really changed: The vast majority of central banks carry more dollars than any other currency. a bevy of anti-dollar sentiments have taken shape in recent years.

Nor would the sanctity of the debt be guaranteed.13 General. One miscalculation could leave the Treasury without enough money to make an interest payment. Climate. setting off a chain reaction of defaults. Guns. . Hagel. 61 of 62 DEBT CEILING – AT: NO IMPACT – CAN MAKE SELECTIVE PAYMENTS SELECTIVE PAYMENT IS NO SOLUTION The Economist 1. Even a few days‟ default would roil the global financial system.13 [http://www. The mere possibility could incite skittish investors to dump their holdings. contractors and millions of others of money needed to meet their own obligations.com/news/leaders/21569423-debt-ceiling-america-serves-nouseful-purpose-and-should-be-abolished-cliff] The Treasury could try to soften the blow of hitting the debt ceiling by making interest payments on its debt the priority while leaving some other bills unpaid. Not only would that threaten to send the economy back into recession. not first. which relies on Treasuries in countless transactions. Debt. pensioners.12. driving up interest rates. Yet that would still wreak havoc. Citizenship p. populists could demand that Chinese bondholders be paid last. It would also deprive doctors. Failure to raise the debt ceiling would force immediate spending cuts equal to 6% of GDP.16.Planet Debate Politics 1. The federal government now borrows nearly 30 cents of every dollar it spends.economist. Disgruntled creditors could challenge the legality of prioritising interest payments.

62 of 62 DEBT CEILING – THREAT ALONE WON’T HURT ECONOMY UNDERLYING ECONOMIC STRENGTH WILL OVERCOME POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES IN 2013 Irwin Stelzer. director economic policy studies. . Auto companies expect to move more than 15 million cars and small trucks from dealers to consumers’ garages.13 [http://www. Hagel.14. boosted by some of the details in last week’s deal.html?page=3] So there will be substantial political headwinds that the private sector must overcome if growth is to be sufficient to reduce the unemployment rolls and increase the flow of tax revenues to the Treasury. Fortunately.com/articles/march-madness_693767. and the gnashing of teeth of the nation’s savers. 1.weeklystandard. Guns.Planet Debate Politics 1.16. Climate. Hudson Institute. Growth in the important service sector is accelerating. The dollar will fall and exports rise as the 2013 deficit tops $1 trillion and Ben Bernanke‟s Federal Reserve Board continues to churn out dollars to keep interest rates at close to zero. about 1 million more than in 2012. despite doubts by an increasing number of Bernanke’s colleagues. there is reason to believe that 2013 will be a year in which the economy does indeed overcome those headwinds. Debt. The recovery of the housing sector will continue and probably accelerate. Citizenship p. such as retention of the mortgage deduction.13 General. Regulators will be unable to stifle completely the development of shale gas resources and the attendant growth of manufacturing industries dependent on that low-cost fuel.

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