Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | January 31, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Day’s overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update
Thursday | January 31, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis • German Retail Sales m/m declined to -1.7 percent in in December. • UK Nationwide HPI m/m increased 0.5 percent in January. • German Unemployment Change declined 16K in January. European markets are trading lower taking cues from unfavorable German retail sales data along with expectation of rise in the unemployment claims from US. Results of AstraZeneca Plc to Royal Dutch Shell Plc were below investor expectations which also caused risk aversion in the markets. Spot gold prices are trading 0.2 percent lower due to strength in the DX. However, prices in the early part of the trade were trading higher as US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting which concluded in the morning today said that it might continue its bond buying program until jobs market improves substantially. In the domestic markets prices are trading lower due to appreciation in the rupee. Spot silver prices are curently trading 0.3 percent lower tracing weakness in the gold prices along with strength in the DX . Firmness in the base metals pack however cushioned fall in the silver prices. In the domestic market, prices are trading 0.7 percent lower due to appreciation in the rupee. The base metals pack are trading higher on account of reports that the major consumer of the metals might witness robust growth in the current year. This might increase the demand of the industrial metals. Strength in the DX however capped gains in the base metals pack. Copper traded higher due to hopes of recovery in the major consuming nations and as US Federal Reserve said that it would continue its monetary easing program. Strength in the DX along with rise in the LME inventories capped gains in the copper prices. In the domestic market, prices of copper on MCX are trading 0.2 percent higher taking cues from strength in the international prices. However, appreciation in the rupee restricted gains in the red metal on MCX. Nymex crude oil prices are trading lower due to strength in the DX and long liquidation by the market participants. US Federal Reserve continuing its bond buying program restricted fall in the prices. This is expected to increase the demand for the fuel. In the domestic markets, prices are trading on a 0.17 lower due to appreciation in the rupee. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 6055.75 19987.28 11057.50 1960.78 17331.31 High 6057.95 20008.45 11145.38 1965.92 17408.35

as at 4.30 pm – 31 January ’13
Low 6025.30 19865.77 11007.77 1954.53 17095.26 Last 6034.75 19894.98 11138.66 1961.94 17095.26 % Chg from Prev day -0.35 -0.55 0.22 -0.13 -1.01
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm –31 January ’13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 79.28 1.3566 53.305 High 79.36 1.3584 53.375 Low 79.215 1.3542 53.06 Current 79.34 1.3559 53.21 % Chg from Prev day 0.02 -0.06 -0.04
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm – 31 January ’13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Feb’13 MCX Gold – Feb’13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar’13 MCX Silver – Mar ’13 Crude Oil Nymex – Feb ‘13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Feb’ ’13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb’13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Jan’13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Jan’13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX - Jan’13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Jan’13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1676.81 1675.40 30226 32.01 29.98 59126 97.96 114.91 5211 8230.00 440.70 2150.25 113.40 2440 129.70 18305 973.30 2098.00 109.80

1680.40 1680.00 30248 32.11 30.18 59135 98.04 115.25 5227 8291.25 444.90 2173.75 114.90 2468 131.05 18570 986.50 2126.00 111.30

1673.74 1673.90 30103 31.88 29.95 58675 97.59 114.55 5199 8207.50 440.40 2140.00 113.40 2433 129.60 18265 970.50 2089.25 109.70

1673.94 1674.20 30110 31.93 30.18 58676 97.77 114.89 5201 8269.75 443.10 2169.50 114.70 2455 130.80 18547 986.40 2123.75 111.20

-0.16 -0.34 -0.35 -0.28 0.67 -0.65 -0.17 -0.01 -0.17 0.37 0.23 0.84 0.92 0.42 0.65 1.20 1.10 1.16 1.09

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update
Thursday | January 31, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metal and crude oil prices to trade with bearish note due to weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Investors are also awaiting US unemployment claims data in the evening today which is expected to rise. This might further dampen the sentiments. Base metal prices are likely to remain firm on hopes of robust growth in the Chinese economy which might increase the demand for the metal.

Technical Outook for evening session – 31 January ’13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)
Commodity Gold Feb'13 Spot Gold Silver Mar’13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Feb'13 Nymex Crude Oil Feb’13 Natural Gas Jan’13 Copper Feb ’13 Zinc Jan’13 Lead Jan’13 Aluminum Jan’13 Nickel Jan’13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29933 1657 58005 31.40 5166 96.9 173.2 438.3 113.15 129.1 110.1 964 Support 1 30051 1671 58564 31.83 5188 97.5 175.7 440.4 113.75 129.85 110.8 972 CMP 30109 1674.3 58730 31.96 5200 97.63 178.3 442.3 114.75 130.25 112.05 986 Resistance1 30252 1686 59344 32.43 5235 98.4 179.8 445 115.4 131.1 112.45 988 Resistance 2 30382 1696 59900 32.86 5260 98.8 181.4 447 116.6 132 113.15 995

Important Events for Today
Indicator FOMC Statement Federal Funds Rate Manufacturing PMI Prelim Industrial Production m/m Average Cash Earnings y/y Housing Starts y/y German Retail Sales m/m Nationwide HPI m/m German Prelim CPI m/m French Consumer Spending m/m German Unemployment Change Unemployment Claims Core PCE Price Index m/m Employment Cost Index q/q Personal Spending m/m Chicago PMI Natural Gas Storage Country US US Japan Japan Japan Japan EU UK EU EU EU US US US US US US Time (IST) 12:45 am 12:45 am 4:45 am 5:20 am 7:00 am 10:30 am 12:30 pm 12:30 pm All Day 1:15 pm 2:25 pm 7:00 pm 7:00 pm 7:00 pm 7:00 pm 8:15 pm 9:00 pm Actual <0.25% 47.7 2.5% -1.4% 10.0% -1.7% 0.5% 0.0% -16K Forecast <0.25% 4.2% 1.1% 13.6% 0.1% 0.3% -0.5% 0.3% 9K 362K 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 51.1 -198B Previous <0.25% 45.0 -1.4% -0.8% 10.3% 1.2% -0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 3K 330K 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 51.6 -172B Impact High Medium Low Medium Medium Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Low

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