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Guido Kuersteiner

Lecture Note 2 - Stationary Processes In this lecture we are concerned with models for stationary (in the weak sense) processes. The focus here will be on linear processes. This is clearly restrictive given the stylized facts of nancial time series. However linear time series models are often used as building blocks in nonlinear models. Moreover linear models are easier to handle empirically and have certain optimality properties that will be discussed. Linear time series models can be dened as linear dierence equations with constant coecients. We start by introducing some examples. The simplest case of a stochastic process is one with independent observations. From a second order point of view this transforms into uncorrelatedness. Example 2.1 (White Noise). The process {t } is called white noise if it is weakly stationary with Et = 0 and autocovariance function 2 h=0 (h) = 0 h 6= 0 and we write t W N(0, 2 ). A special case is {t } with t iid(0, 2 ). The white noise process is important because it can be used as a building block for more general processes. Consider the following two examples. Example 2.2 (Moving Average). The process {xt } is called a moving average of order one or MA(1) if {xt } is stationary and xt = t + t1 and t is white noise. It follows immediately that xx (0) = 2 (1 + 2 ), xx (1) = 2 and xx (h) = 0 for |h| > 1. A slightly more complicated situation arises when we consider the following autoregressive process. Example 2.3 (Autoregression). The process {xt } is called autoregressive of order one or AR(1) if {xt } is stationary and satises the following stochastic rst order dierence equation xt = xt1 + t and t1 is white noise. By iterating on (2.1) we nd xt = t + t1 + ...k1 tk+1 + k xtk . Pk By stationarity Ex2 is constant and if || < 1 then E(xt j =0 j tj )2 = 2k Ex2 tends to tk tk zero as k . Therefore X j tj (2.2) xt =

j=0

(2.1)

in mean square and therefore in probability. It can also be shown that (2.2) holds almost surely. Equation (2.2) is the stationary solution to (2.1). It is called causal because it only depends on past innovations.

Under the stationarity assumption we can see that Ext = Ext1 + 0 Ext = 0 and Ext xth = Ext1 xth + Et xth such that By premultiplying equation (2.1) by xt on both sides and taking expectations we also have xx (0) = xx (1) + 2 such that together with xx (1) = xx (0) we can solve for xx (0) = 2 /(1 2 ). This now leads to 2 h . xx (h) = (1 2 ) This derivation of the form of xx (h) is based on solving the Yule Walker equations (2.3). An alternative way to derive this result is to directly calculate the autocovariances based on the solution (2.2). xx (h) = xx (h 1). (2.3)

2.1. Lag Operators For more general time series models it is less easy to nd the solution by repeated substitution of the dierence equation. It is therefore necessary to develop a few tools to analyze higher order dierence equations. We introduce the lag operator L which maps a sequence {xt } into a sequence {yt } and is dened by its operation on each element in the sequence yt = Lxt = xt1 t. If we apply L repeatedly then we use the convention that Lp =L L {z... L . | }

p

L has an inverse L1 such that L1 Lxt = LL1 xt = xt . It is also immediate that L is linear Laxt = aLxt = axt1 . We can use the operator L to dene more complex linear operators, the polynomial lag operators. Let (L) = 1 1 L ... p Lp then (L) is a polynomial of order p in L. It follows that (L) is again a linear operator. For p = 1 we can write the AR(1) model in compact form (L)xt = t . In the same way as before (L) has an inverse (L)1 such that (L)1 (L)xt = (L)(L)1 xt = xt . For the case of p = 1 it is easy to nd (L)1 in terms of a polynomial expansion. Since L is a bounded operator and if |1 | < 1 (1 1 L)(1 + such that (L)1 = (1 +

k X j=1

j Lj ) = 1 k+1 Lk+1 1 as k 1 1

X j=1

j Lj ). 1

(2.4)

One way to nd the inverse of higher order polynomials is therefore to factorize them into rst order polynomials and then use relation (2.4). This is also the idea behind the solution of a p-th order dierence equation to which we turn now. 2

2.2. Linear Dierence Equations We consider solutions {xt } of the p-th order linear dierence equation xt + 1 xt1 + ... + p xtp = 0 (2.5) where 1 , ...p are real constants. In lag polynomial notation we write (L)xt = 0. A solution then (1) (m) is a sequence {xt } such that (2.5) is satised for each t. A set of m p solutions {xt , ..., xt } are linearly independent if c1 xt + ... + cm xt

(1) (m)

implies c1 , ..., cm = 0. Given p independent solutions and p initial conditions x0 , ..., xp1 we can then solve (1) (p) x0 x0 c1 x0 . . . . . = . . . . . . . xp1

(1)

xp1

(p)

cp

xp1

for the vector of coecients (c1 , ..., cp ). The unique solution to (2.5) is then c1 xt + ... + cm xt = xt since this is the only solution xt that satises the initial conditions. All values for xt , t > p are then uniquely determined by recursively applying (2.5). From fundamental results in Algebra we know that the equation (L) = 0 has p possibly complex roots such that we can write j Y (2.6) (L) =

(1 1 L)ri i

i=1

(1)

(m)

where i , i = 1, ..., j are the j distinct roots of (L) and ri is the multiplicity of the i-th root. It is (i) (i) therefore enough to nd solutions xt such that (1 1 L)ri xt = 0. It then follows from (2.6) that i (i) (L)xt = 0. We now show the following result.

(k)

(1 1 L) t

= t 1 L t = t 1 t+1 = 0.

k X k t t r r (1 mL)(a0 + a1 t + ... + ak t )m = m ar (t (t 1) )

r=0 (k)

where b1 , ..., bk1 are some constants. Finally we note that ht are linearly independent since if c0 + c1 t + .... + ck1 tk1 t = 0 for t = 0, 1, ..., k 1 3

then the polynomial c0 + c1 t + .... + ck1 tk1 of degree k 1 has k zeros. This is only possible if c1 , ..., ck = 0. Lemma (2.4) shows that (L)xt = 0 has p solutions tn t , n = 0, 1, ..., ri 1, i = 1, ..., j. The i general solution to (2.5) then has the form xt =

j X X ri 1 i=1 n=0

cin tn t . i

(2.7)

The p coecients cin are again determined by p initial conditions. The coecients are unique if the p solutions tn t are linearly independent. This follows if i

j X X ri 1 i=1 n=0

implies cin = 0 i, n. For a proof see Brockwell and Davis (1987), p.108. 2.3. The Autocovariance function of the ARMA(p,q) Model In this section we use the previous results to analyze the properties of the ARM A(p, q) model. The ARM A(p, q) process is dened next. Denition 2.5. The process {xt } is called ARMA(p, q) if {xt } is stationary and for every t xt 1 xt1 ... p xtp = t + 1 t1 + ... + q tq . A more compact formulation can be given by using lag polynomials. Dene (L) = 1 1 L ... p Lp and (L) = 1 + 1 L + ... + q Lq . then (2.8) can be written as (L)xt = (L)t . It is useful to nd dierent representations of this model. For this purpose we introduce the following notions Denition 2.6. The ARMA(p,q) process (2.8) is said to be causal if there exists a sequence {i } i=0 P such that |i | < and X i ti . xt =

i=0

(2.8)

by equating coecients in the two polynomials. We only discuss the if part. Assume (z) 6= 0 for |z| 1. Then there exists an > 0 such that 1/(z) has a power series expansion 1/(z) =

j X j=0

It can be shown, that an ARMA(p,q) process such that (L) and (L) have no common zeros is causal if and only if (z) 6= 0 for all z C such that |z| 1. Then the coecients i are determined from X (2.9) (z) = i z i = (L)/(L)

i=0

j z j for |z| 1 + .

+ as j

This implies j (1 j /2) 0

so that there exists a positive nite constant K such that

j < K(1 + /2) . Thus P j=0 j < and (z)(z) = 1. This now justies writing xt = (L)/(L)t . Another related property of the ARM A(p, q) process is invertibility. This notion is dened next. 4

Denition 2.7. The ARMA(p,q) process (2.8) is said to be invertible if there exists a sequence P |i | < and {i } such that i=0 X i xti . t =

i=0

such that

It can again be shown that (2.8), such that (L) and (L) have no common zeros, is invertible if and only if (z) 6= 0 for all z C such that |z| 1. Invertibility means, that the process can be represented as an innite order AR(p) process. This property has some importance in applied work since AR(p) models can be estimated by simple projection operators while models with moving average terms need nonlinear optimization. Causality can be used to compute the covariance function of the ARM A(p, q) process. Under causality we can write X i ti xt =

i=0

xx (h) = 2

This expression is however not very useful since it does not show the dependence on the underlying parameters of the process. Going back to (2.9) we write (z)(z) = (z) and equate the coecients on z i . This leads to X k jk = j , 0 j < max(p, q + 1) j

0<kj

X i=0

i i+|h| .

0 1 2

= 1 = 1 + 1 = 2 + 2 + 1 1 + 2 . 1 . . .

We can now obtain the covariance function of xt by premultiplying both sides of (2.8) by xth P and using the representation xt = i ti . Taking expectations on both sides then gives i=0 X xx (h) 1 xx (h 1) ... p xx (h p) = 2 j jh , (2.10)

hjq

and xx (h) 1 xx (h 1) ... p xx (h p) = 0 for h max(p, q + 1). (2.11) Note that if q + 1 > p then there are more initial conditions than linearly independent solutions to the dierence equation. In this case the rst q p + 1 autocorrelation coecients are determined from the rst q p + 1 initial conditions. The general solution to this system of dierence equations is now given by (2.7) as xx (h) =

j X X ri 1 i=1 n=0

where i are the distinct roots of the AR polynomial (z) and cin are p coecients determined by the initial conditions (2.10). The covariances xx (h), 0 h < max(p, q + 1) p are also determined from (2.10). 5

Example 2.8. We look at the autocovariance function of the causal AR(2) process

1 (1 1 L)(1 2 L)xt = t . 1

where | 1 |,| 2 | > 1 and 1 6= 2 . Assume 2 = 1 w.l.g. The autoregressive parameters are given by 1 1 1 1 1 = 1 + 1 and 2 = 1 2 . It now follows that 0 = 1 and 1 = 1 + 2 . Then the 1 2 boundary conditions are (0) 1 (1) 2 (2) = 1 (1) 1 (0) 2 (1) = 0.

h Now, using the general solution (h) = c1 h + c2 2 for h 0 and substituting into the boundary 1 conditions gives

c1 c2

which fully describes the covariance function in terms of underlying parameters. Substituting into the general solution then gives (h) = 2 2 2 1h 1h 1 2 [( 2 1)1 1 ( 2 1)1 1 ]. 1 ( 2 1 )( 1 2 1) 1

1 = 3 2 ( 2 1)( 2 1 )( 1 2 1) 1 2 1 1 = 2 3 ( 2 1)( 2 1 )( 1 2 1) 1 2 2

Another interesting question is for what values of 1 , 2 the roots lie outside the unit circle. Solving for 1 , 1 in terms of 1 , 2 gives 1 2 q 1 2 + 42 1 1 = 1,2 2

1 such that 1 = 1 if 2 = 1 1 and 1 = 1 if 2 = 1 + 1 . 1,2 is complex if 2 + 42 < 0. The 1,2 1,2 1 modulus of the complex roots is larger than one if 2 < 1.

2.4. Linear Projections and Partial Autocorrelations We begin by reviewing some basic properties of linear vector spaces. A vector space V is a set (here we only consider subsets of Rn or Cn ) with two binary operations, vector addition and scalar multiplication. A vector space is closed under linear transformations, i.e. x + y V for x, y V and , scalars. A norm is a function k.k : V [0, ) such that kxk = || kxk , kx + yk kxk + kyk and kxk = 0 x = 0. A function without the last property is called a seminorm. A normed vector space is a vector space equipped with a norm. We can then dene the metric (x, y) = kx yk on V. A vector space is called complete if every Cauchy sequence converges. A complete normed space is called a Banach space. We use the notation z for the complex conjugate of z if z C. An inner product on a complex normed vector space is a function hx, yi : V 2 C such that hx, yi = hy, xi, hx + y, zi = a hx, zi + b hy, zi for a, b C and hx, xi = kxk2 . A complete inner product space is called a Hilbert space. Denition 2.9 (Basis of a Vector Space). A basis of a complex vector space V is any set of linearly independent vectors v1 , ...vn that span V, i.e, for any v V there exist scalars i C such Pn that v = i=1 i vi . A basis is said to be orthonormal if hvi , vj i = 1 for i = j and hvi , vj i = 0 for i 6= j. 6

Denition 2.10. A subspace of a vector space is a subset M V such that M itself is a vector space. If V is an inner product space then we can dene the orthogonal complement of M denoted by M as M = {x V : hx, yi = 0, y M}. Proposition 2.11 (Vector Decomposition). Any element x V can be written as the sum of two vectors y1 , y2 such that y1 M and y2 M for any subspace M V. P Proof. Let v1 , ...vp be an orthonormal basis of M. Let y1 = p=1 hy, vi i vi . Let y2 = y y1 . Clearly, i y1 M. Also, for j = 1, ..., p, * p + X hy, vi i vi , vj = hy, vj i hvj , vj i hy, vj i = 0. hy2 , vj i = hy, vj i hy1 , vj i = hy, vj i

i=1

So, y2 is orthogonal to vj , j = 1, ..., p, thus y2 M . An alternative way to express this result is to write V = M M . Let x V and M a linear subspace of V. A projection PM (x) of x onto M is an element of M such that kx PM (x)k = inf kx yk .

yM

Theorem 2.12 (Projection Theorem). (a) PM (x) exists, is unique and is a linear function of x. (b) PM (x) is the projection of x on M i x PM (x)M. Proof. (a) By the proof that V = M M , we can write x = x1 + x2 where x1 M and x2 M P and x1 = p hx, vi i vi . Then for any y M we have i=1 kx yk2 = hx x1 + x1 y, x x1 + x1 yi kx x1 k2 = kx x1 k2 + kx1 yk2

where the inequality is strict unless kx yk2 = 0 or y = x1 . Hence x1 is the projection of x onto M and it is unique. (b) If PM (x) is a projection of x onto M then by part (a) PM (x) = x1 and xPM (x) = x2 M . Conversely if PM (x) is some element of M for which xPM (x) M , then x1 +x2 PM (x) M , x1 PM (x) M , since x2 M and x1 PM (x) M since x1 , PM (x) M. This implies x1 PM (x) = 0. Therefore PM (x) is the projection of x onto M. In this section we need some properties of complex L2 spaces dened on the random variables 2 X on (, F, P ). By denition E |X| < for X L2 (, F, P ). The space L2 is a complex Hilbert space with inner product hX, Y i = E(XY ). From the previous denition of a linear subspace M of a Hilbert space H we know that M is a subset M H such that 0 M and for x1 , x2 M it follows that y = a1 x1 + a2 x2 M for all a1 , a2 C. A closed linear subspace is a subspace that contains all its limit points. Denition 2.13 (Closed Span). The closed span sp{xt , t T } of any subset {xt , t T } of the Hilbert space H is the smallest closed subspace of H which contains each element of {xt , t T }. The closed span of a nite set {x1 , ..., xn } contains all linear combinations y = a1 x1 + .... + an xn , a1 , ..., an C. We dened the projection PM (x) of x H onto the subspace M as the element x M such that hx x, x xi = inf yM hx y, x yi . The projection x is unique by the projection theorem. Moreover x x M where M is orthogonal to M. 7

It is now obvious from the denition of PM (x) that the projection onto sp{x1 , ..., xn } has the form Psp{x1 ,...,xn } (x) = a1 x1 + .... + an xn since Psp{x1 ,...,xn } (x) sp{x1 , ..., xn } and the coecients have to satisfy X ai hxi , xj i = hx, xj i for j = 1, ...n.

Using the concept of projection onto linear subspaces we can now introduce the partial autocorrelation function. The partial autocorrelation function measures the correlation between two elements xt+k and xt of a time series after taking into account the correlation that is explained by xt+1 , ...xt+k1 . In the following we assume stationarity of xt and normalize t = 1. Formally the partial autocorrelation function of a stationary time series is dened as (1) = Corr(x2 , x1 ) = (1) and (k) = Corr(xk+1 Psp{x2 ,...,xk } (xk+1 ), x1 Psp{x2 ,...,xk } (x1 )). The partial autocorrelation is therefore the correlation between the residuals from a regression of xk+1 on x2 , ..., xk and the residuals from a regression of x1 onto x2 , ..., xk . An alternative but equivalent denition can be given in terms of the last regression coecient in a regression of xt onto the k lagged variables xt1 , ...xtk . If Psp{x1 ,...,xk } (xk+1 ) = where (0) (1) .. .. . . .. .

k X i=1

ik xk+1i

then (k) kk . It can be shown that the two denitions are equivalent. We consider two examples next. Example 2.14. Let xt follow a causal AR(p) process such that xt 1 xt1 ... p xtp = t with t W N (0, 2 ). Then, for k p Psp{x1 ,...,xk } (xk+1 ) =

p X j=1

(k 1) . . . (1) (0)

1k . . . . . . kk

(1) . . . . . . (k)

(2.12)

j xk+1j

(2.13)

which canP seen from looking at any y sp{x1 , ..., xk }. By causality y sp{j , j k} such that be p < xk+1 j=1 j xk+1j , y >= 0. By the projection theorem this implies that (2.13) holds. It now follows that for k > p (k) = Corr(xk+1

p X j=1

We see that the partial autocorrelation for the AR(p) process is zero for lags higher than p. The next example considers the MA(1) process. For the invertible case this process can be represented as an AR(). We therefore expect the partial autocorrelations to die out slowly rather than collapsing at a nite lag. This is in fact the case. Exercise 2.1. Let xt be driven by a MA(1) process xt = t t1 with || < 1, t W N (0, 2 ) then we know from before that (1) = (1) = /(1 + 2 ). Equations (2.12) now become 1

(1+2 ) (1+ 2 )

.. ..

. .

.. . .. .

(1+ 2 )

0 . . .

(1+2 )

1k . . . . . . kk

(1+2 )

0 . . . 0

i1k + (1 + 2 )ik i+1k = 0 with initial condition (1 + 2 )1k 2k = and terminal condition The dierence equation can be written as (1 (1 + 2 )/L + L2 )i = 0 with roots and 1/. The general solution is then i = c1 i +c2 i . Substitution into the initial and terminal conditions allows to solve for the constants c1 and c2 , in particular c1 = 1 2(k+1) 1 and c2 = 2k+2 1 2(k+1) . (1 + 2 )kk k1k = 0

The constants depend on k because of the terminal condition. The terminal value kk is then found from substituting back into the general solution. This leads to (k) = k (1 2 ) .

1 2(k+1)

We see from the two examples and the results on the autocovariance function that the highest order of AR polynomial can be determined from the point where the partial autocorrelations are zero and the highest order of the MA polynomial can be determined from the autocovariance function in the same way. This has lead to method of identifying the correct specication for an ARMA(p, q) model by looking both at the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function of a process. It is clear that for a general model the decay patterns of these functions can be quite complicated. It is therefore usually dicult to reach a clear decision regarding the correct specication by looking at the empirical counterparts of autocorrelations and partial autocorrelations. Exercise 2.2. Find the partial autocorrelation function for xt where xt = t t1 and t is white noise.

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