This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
So What? .
November 2007 .
Droughts Worsen. Deserts Spread.
The Culprit? Evaporation . .
Catastrophe in Slow Motion slowly. materializes
Emissions today cause warming that Damages from our actions so far will intensify for decades to come. The more stuff we put in the air now, .
Droughts Worsen .
Road Map of the Show
How Earth Warms Signs of Warming Droughts Are THE Problem Emission Reduction Paths Warmer = More Damages $ Costs: Damages & Mitigation Solutions Conclusion & Mini-References
• Oil is getting expensive, recently above $80 a barrel. • Gasoline recently topped $3 a gallon for weeks in the US. • The era of cheap gasoline in America is over. • The US imports 60% of its oil. That’s up from 53% in 2000, when George W. Bush was elected, and up from 38% when his father took office. • The US imports twice as much oil as any other nation uses. Texas uses 3.1 times as much oil as it “produces”, Louisiana 4.1 times as much. • US oil production peaked in 1970. Alaska gave us an uptick, but it’s been downhill since 1985.
Some scientists are saying publicly that if humanity goes on with business as usual, climate change could lead to the collapse of civilization, even in the lifetime of today's children. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said “I think that is a correct assessment.” He added carefully “If we take action today, it may not be too late.”
September 24, 2007
UN Chief on Climate Change
to Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) What would make climate change accelerate? • • Disappearance of sea ice means more heat is absorbed by the water below. Carbon sinks fade & fail in oceans & forests. 3 Methane release from permafrost revs up warming in a vicious circle. .The Tipping Point • Report to US & British Legislators .January 2006 in the US.
Greenhouse gases in the air (GHGs) intercept some outgoing radiation and re-radiate it back down. More GHGs = warmer still. By now. This warms Earth more. Earth warms up and radiates heat. Light surfaces reflect sunlight. Changing a dark surface (forest) to a lighter one (desert) cools Earth. . Those surfaces don’t warm Earth much. Cyclic changes in solar output have warmed and cooled Earth modestly.Greenhouse Effect Dark Earth absorbs sunlight. Changing a light surface (ice) to a dark one (water) warms Earth. human GHGs warm Earth much more than solar changes do.
Almost all US CO2 comes from burning coal. net. evaporation increases H2O in the air. Concentrations vary many-fold over time and space. Earth would average 0°F without them. on average. rice. natural gas 2. • Water vapor (H2O) does 66-85% of this warming. but a feedback for other GHGs. So.wetlands. coal mines) does 16%. natural gas . This amplifies warming from other GHGs considerably.Greenhouse Gases • GHGs warm Earth by 32°C (58°F). coal emits 4 units of CO2. Ozone (O3) does 10%. Per unit of energy. • Carbon dioxide (CO2) does 55% of the remaining net warming. cows. As Earth warms up. Nitrous oxide (N2O .fertilizers) does 5%. landfills. oil 3. ozone hole) do 11%. oil & natural gas. . scientists often treat H2O not as a GHG. But H2O stays up for only 2-3 weeks. • • • Methane (CH4. CFCs (old air conditioners.
Earth and Planetary Science Vostok Ice (2002) Letters 203: 829-843 Core Data . ∆ + • 2006 temperature Thousand Years before Present ppm = parts per million ppb = parts per billion Vimeux. The difference between 190 and 280 ppm of CO2 was 10°C (18°F) and ice almost a mile deep covering Chicago. temperatures have tracked the levels of GHGs CO2 and CH4 in the air. Cuffey & Jouzel.Vostok Ice Core Data For hundreds of thousands of years.
into soils. into trees. The difference between 280 and 380 ppm of CO2 remains to be seen.CO2 Levels in Earth's Atmosphere 390 Up 36% 370 • 350 Acceleration began.into the oceans. and so forth. half the CO2 emitted has stayed in the air. The rest has been sinking . C . 330 310 300 ppm (maximum between ice ages) parts per million (ppm) 290 Annual Averages 270 1750 1790 1830 1870 1910 1950 1990 So far. It materializes slowly. But the ocean sink seems to be fading fast. We’ve seen some of it so far. But much of the effect is delayed. Disappearing forests weaken another sink.
5°C warmer than a Little Ice Age. then cool.5°C colder than 1970’s climate. weakening ocean carbon sinks. During 3 Little Ice Ages (with few or no sunspots . Human warming is growing fast. The reverse occurs when the sun dims. Sand dunes spread across Nebraska.7°C warmer still. Vikings colonized Greenland. CO2 un-dissolves. A brighter sun warms oceans. Warming. over periods of ~ 11 years. A brighter sun has a stronger magnetic field. but today’s climate is another 0. Human GHGs already warm Earth 5-6 times as much as solar maximum effects. human GHGs could warm Earth 10 times as much as solar maxima.a dimmer sun). But solar cycles warm. It shields Earth from more cosmic rays. Greenland Viking colonies died out in the first Little Ice Age. so they create fewer ions to become cloud condensation nuclei. Longer-term variations may be twice that. . The Medieval Optimum averaged 0. Less cloudy.How Solar Changes Affect Climate Satellites confirm that solar output waxes and wanes with sunspots. In 25 years. Less shade.1%. by ~ ±0. Gases are less soluble in warmer water. More H2O evaporates. The Medieval Optimum stayed as warm as the 1970s. climates averaged 0. The added GHGs warm Earth more and amplify solar cycle (& human GHG) effects. This too amplifies solar cycle effects.
haze & the ozone layer. air cools. at night. • Many factors affect cloud formation & distribution. Barriers include blue sky (not black). so it will often cloud up & rain. So do changes in % high clouds vs low clouds. • Clouds cover a little more than half of Earth. warming Earth. cooling Earth. On balance. Clouds . High clouds do the reverse. esp. • Low clouds cool Earth more than they warm it. They also keep outbound heat in.• Half the sunlight reaching our atmosphere makes it to the surface. • Changes in cloud cover affect global temperature. clouds. At night & going up over mountains. clouds cool Earth. Clouds • Clouds reflect some sunlight away. Cool air holds less H2O.
SO2 goes up the smokestacks. sulfates usually for days. • GHG levels keep rising. It changes to SO4 (sulfate) up in the air. some from volcanoes. Sulfate levels don’t. • Sulfates make haze & become cloud condensation nuclei. • Most sulfates come from burning coal.Sulfates & Cooling • Dark sulfates in the air block sunlight. • Sulfates currently offset 40% of warming from human GHGs. • GHGs stay in the air many years. More sulfates = cloudier = cooler. . That cools Earth.
8 Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG Warming ar m • 0. Pinatubo 162 118 2000 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. big t major coo ime. Æ¡C 0.∆°C 0.0 i + Sulfates rise b g in WW II m some from 1951-80 Baseline . ling El Chichón US SO2 cuts start US Clean Air Act -0.adjusted for urban heat island effects NASA GISS Global Air Temperatures at Land Surface sulfates still 3x 1880 levels in g Su l fa te s fa ll. 2002) .000 weather stations .2 es at f l al a lf Su t. Depression Cooling 1880 40 offsets 61 89 77 116 GHG warming.4 0.6 7.more. 0. w Cooling G war ht n so cooling -0. Sulfate Levels in Greenland Ice Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG milligrams of Sulfate per Ton of Ice Warming cool ou su d w al eb om ske ls f WW I: r fr a ve -m le more SO2 un SO4 up the stacks Expansion: more SO2 5-year mean 1980 2000 w Mt.4 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 Great Sulfates rise. ar mth Temperature Difference Krakatoa more SO2.2 GH nd nlig he JFK-LBJ l Sulfates r ise.
Land warms more (faster) than oceans. It warms more when & where it’s coldest: in winter. . & especially toward the poles. at night.
0°C warmer than 100 years ago. have EVER used. • Air at the sea surface is 0.8°F. is about equal to” 1°C = 1. • The oceans have gained ~ 10 x more heat in 40 years than ALLpower several hundred US homes.6°C warming (so far) is “in the pipeline. This absorption has been accelerating.8°C warmer than 100 years ago. from near zero in 1960. Earth will warm another 0. .6°C. so it emits enough heat to balance absorption. immense momentum! 440 million MW = 100 x global electric supply: big time heating! • Air at the land surface is 1. Another 0.35°C warming. roughly.Earth Is Heating Up • Earth now absorbs 440 million MW more than it emits: our carbon emissions at work .the greenhouse effect. then 0. The last two decades brought 0. One MW can the energy humans ~ means “approximately.” That is.17°C.
Mountain glaciers and snowpacks are dwindling ever faster. Intense hurricanes are becoming more common. Higher hurricane energy closely tracks sea surface warming. Summer ice will be gone in 5-50 years. CO2 uptake in the N Atlantic fell by half. so plankton absorbed 7% less CO2. down 40% in 25 years.15°C over 1997-2004. With more carbon. Shells dissolve easier. Its net melt-water now exceeds US water use. Greenland’s ice-melt rate rose 150% over the past decade. From the mid-1990s to 2002-05. Arctic Ocean ice is shrinking fast. .So? Water Hurricanes convert ocean heat to powerful winds & heavy rains. Big potential warming The area covered by permafrost has shrunk by 7% since 1900. Thawing permafrost holds 2-4 x MORE carbon than humans have emitted. EVER. In 2007 it was 20% below the old record. Oceans warmed 0. oceans have grown more acidic.
Irrigation wells chase water ever deeper. Darling. 1979-2004. Lake Eyre dry up & vanish. Aral Sea. Indus. Lake Chad (Darfur). 3-20 feet/year. 92% in Hebei (Beijing). . Forest fires now burn 6 x as much area / year as before 1986.. Water prices rise. With more evaporation & irrigation. More rivers fail to reach the sea . Desert belts expanded 70 miles toward the poles. Colorado.Yellow.Is That All?. Australia’s the worst on record. Sea of Galilee. half the lakes in Qinghai (China) vanished. The Amazon drought is the worst in decades. No Water . many water tables fall Since 1985.
continued heavy reliance on them (business as usual emissions). the climate change would be like moving 330 miles to the SSW (coal & oil use dwindle). Texas. heart of wheat country. the Union of Concerned Scientists calculated how climate would change for 9 Northeast states in 2 scenarios: #1 . Stockton. 650 miles to the SSW lies the area around Alpine & Ft. Consider central Kansas. 2 people / square mile. Cactus grows there. or #2 . 330 miles to the SSW lies the area from Amarillo to Oklahoma City. averaged across 9 states.a transition away from fossil fuels. or moving 650 miles to the SSW (heavy coal & oil use). By 2085. Mesquite & sagebrush too.Turning Wheat into Cactus In October 2006. No wheat .
By 2059. Goldberg. 95. . . 1 in David Rind. Ruedy. 1969 • • Supply-Demand Drought Index 1999 . 9983-10004.2°C +14% rain 2029 2059 . Vol. James Hansen. “Potential Evapotranspiration and the Likelihood of Future Droughts. Cynthia Rosenzweig. “Once a Century” Drought Can Cover 45% of Earth. . D7. 6/20/1990. Climate Model: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) DRY 0 1 5 16 36 36 16 5 1 0 WET % Occurrence in Control Run Fig. No. R. R.” Journal of Geophysical Research. Business as Usual Emissions in 2059 2 x CO2 +4.
. 1990 “Once a century” drought can cover 45% of Earth’s land by 2059. except Antarctica June-August. A weighted average for “as dry as 11% of the time” drought is ~ 27%. Business as Usual Emissions Based on Supply-Demand Drought Index Dry 16% Drought 5% Extreme Drought 1% } Occurrence in Control Run Occurence (%) 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2x CO2 Fig. for “Dry”. . Over 2000-04. the average frequencies are 18% for “Drought” and 33%Projected Droughts by Year . 2 in Rind et al.Projected Drought Conditions 70 60 50 40 30 • 2x CO2 Land Surface.
Thanks for the crystal ball. . disappearing lakes and rivers? (Please also remember “11% of the time” drought was projected to increase to 27% of the time over 2000-2004. Now for the BIG PICTURE . BUT Is any of this actually happening? Remember forest fires.) YES. falling water tables.
Severe 5 Palmer with 0 %.0 < Very Dry Areas . ea cr 987 in 1 on nce i at i or ot s p va a l E by -5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 from Fig. Evaporation at work Over 23 years. 11% of the time during 1951-80 or Severity 10 Drought Area where rain is scarce increased by quite a bit: 3-4 million square miles. 1117-1130 Compare 30% actual severe drought area in 2002 (11% of the time during 1951-80) to 27% projected for 2000-2004 in previous slide. the area with severe drought grew by the size of North America. Ahead of Schedule. . Earth’s area in severe drought has tripled since 1979.” Journal of Hydrometeorology. .% of Global Land Area.75¡N precipitation effect warming effect precipitation + warming Drought 20 Index 15 Extreme Compare 2002 to 1979. 9 in Aiguo Dai. as projected or faster. Taotao Qian [NOAA]. se .Droughts Are Spreading Already. 60¡S . • co ef mb 10 fec ine d sq mil t ua lio re n m m o i l e re s . Kevin E. Trenberth. 30 25 -3. "A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming. December 2004. Droughts spread. d.
So Warming Produces More Dry Areas. What about Wet Areas? Won’t rainfall increase elsewhere? Won’t wet areas increase as much as dry areas? After all. what goes up must come down. Right? .OK.
combined effect: decrease 2-6% (1-3 million square miles) s rea ed .0 10 . Trenberth & Qian. ‘79) kicked that up to 11. • 15 +3. 2004 The combined decrease was 6% from 1979 to 2002 alone.Palmer Wet 5 Severity Index > During 1950-1980. Compare 2002 to 1979.20 Very Wet Areas . . ‘66. the soggy area shrank by the size of India. Very % Drought -5 1950 0 ap Ev or nc ni o ati 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 from Fig.2% of areas very wet. Cooling (1957. the precipitation effect made 11.75¡N precipitation effect warming effect precipitation + warming Rainy area shrank & grew. but only 3% from the 1950-80 mean to the 1992-2002 average. 60¡S .5%. ‘77.% of Global Land Area. more or Very Wet Areas less. Over 23 years. 9 in Dai.
Baseline Compare 2002 to 1979. ed nc ni tio ra po va E -5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 25 -3. In particular.% of Global Land Area.9% of the area was rain-poor Severity Drought Severe 5 8% of Earth’s land was very wet.3 million sq miles).0 precipitation effect warming effect precipitation + warming Drought 20 Index < 15 Compare 2002 to 1979. Very Dry Areas .% of Global Land Area.Palmer 10 Wet During Severity Index > 1951-1980.9%. 10. Baseline Extreme or 10 During 1951-80. with0 % Palmer . up 0. -5 1950 1960 1970 1980 rc e is sca re rain a bit: he Area w d by quite s. up 6. combined effect: decrease 2-6% (1-3 million square miles) s rea . ase re mile incre .4 million sq miles). average 11. average 17.0 for 1982-2002. while rain-poor areas grew by 6. co m bin 10 ed m sq il ef ua lio fe re n m ct m o ile re s .75¡N precipitation effect warming effect precipitation + warming • 15 Rainy area shrank & grew. increased evaporation from warming dried out wet areas. 60¡S . n squa illio ed 3-4 m as 7.75¡N .4% from baseline Rain-poor areas grew much more than rainy ones.7% from baseline Sparse precipitation made 14-22% of Earth very dry [bottom] with PDSI < -3. 60¡S .4% (3. % Very5 Drought 0 rain made 11.7% (0. 30 . It dried out dry areas even more. 20 Very Wet Areas .3%.2% very wet. With more evaporation. .0 for 1982-2002.Wet Areas vs Dry Areas Heavy precipitation made 10-15% of Earth very wet [top graph] with PDSI > +3. Moreover. re 8 inc 19 ion ce at in or ot s ap l Ev by a 1990 2000 but 30% was very dry. rainy areas grew by 0.
Add in more evaporation. farmers mine groundwater ever faster for irrigation. 4) The similarly wet area decreased by the size of India. . 3) The area suffering severe drought tripled.5°C) . So. 2) The area with severe drought increased by the size of North America. 1) The area where rain is scarce increased by the size of the United States. Severe drought now afflicts an area the size of Asia.RECAP Severe drought has arrived. From 1979 to 2002 (+0. as projected or faster. .
Warmth draws more water UP (evaporation). More moisture in the air does not equal more clouds. Not all the water that goes up comes back down. • Air 4°C warmer holds 33% more moisture at the same relative humidity. less in soils. (That’s the flip side of “air cools. so less goes DOWN (into soils) or SIDEways (into streams). 10% more rain is required to offset each 1°C warming. . so it clouds up & rains.”) . Satellites are already showing more water vapor in the air.What Drives Drought? • The water-holding capacity of air rises exponentially with temperature. To maintain soil moisture. More water is stored in the air. It holds less H2O.
.Why Worry? 2059 . • Average US stream flows decline 30%. • Tree biomass in the eastern US falls by up to 40%.2 x CO2 (Business as Usual Emissions) Rind et al. • More dry climate vegetation: savannas.Droughts . but 15-27% less in the soil. prairies. . despite 14% more rain. deserts The change in vegetation means • Biological Net Primary Productivity falls 30-70%. 1990 • More moisture in the air. • Satellites show browning of the Earth began in 1994. SWITCH TO ACTUALS.Why Worry? . Fung 2005 Droughts .
3 of the big 4 crops (rice is the 4th) 2 Climate Models (Scenarios) • NASA GISS Results Goddard Institute for Space Studies (based on +4. The temperature effect of doubled CO2 will continue to grow. southern Great Plains • Corn. Southeast. where water and other nutrients are well supplied. but over the rest of the century (and beyond). Thus CO2 fertilization benefits in fields may be less. • GFDL Results (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab) (based on ~ +4. So things won’t be quite this bad. That won’t happen as well in many fields. 1990. to 4. averaged across regions & crops. . Soybeans .2 or 4.2°C. +14% rain) –Yields fall 30%. and weeds and pests are controlled.Crop Yields Fall. at least this soon. United States: 2059 Projections ..doubled CO2 .5°C. Wheat. averaged across regions & crops. Rind et al. -5% rain) –Yields fall 50%.5°C. Groundwater and snowmelt for irrigation are growing scarcer in many areas. CO2 fertilization boosts yields 6-30% in experiments. CO2 fertilization not included .Business as Usual – Great Lakes.
[like sweat] . photosynthesis in leaves slows above 35°C (95°F) and stops above 40°C (104°F). rice & soybean yields by 10% / °C. so photosynthesis continues & proteins aren’t damaged. nutrient transport suffers. • For wheat. corn & rice. When water is scarce. where H2O & CO2 form carbohydrates. 1°C warming cut corn & soybean yields 17% in 618 or more US counties. . Photosynthesis. Rule of thumb: Warming above the norm cuts corn. and [like blood] . (3) cool leaves. 2°C warming cut yields by 37-58% for irrigated wheat in India. (2) pull other soil nutrients up from the roots to the leaves.Plants evaporate (transpire) water in order to (1) get it up to leaves. tropical areas harder & sooner. Warming (above 35 or 40°C) hurts warm. Warming & CO2 • • • • . but only 8-38% with CO2 fertilization.
Growing water scarcity is one factor. fungi and other pests are spreading northward. • The Green Revolution is stagnating. It has since fallen to 305.2400 2000 1600 1200 World Grain Production Food & Agriculture Organization. • Insects.50% in many tropical areas. at 343 kilograms per person. . World Grain Production . • Pests consume 40% of crops and rising . 2006 400 350 300 250 200 150 • Millon Tons 400 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 800 Million Tons per capita 100 50 0 2010 kg 2000 80% of human food comes from grains. Production per capita peaked in 1985. Worldwatch Institute. • World grain production barely rose from 1992 to 2006 (mainly in 2004).
Wheat. Rice. India .Major Crops: US.US. China & India Produce Half of World Total 300 250 200 150 100 Corn 240 200 160 120 80 US China Metric Tons India Rice Million 50 US Metric Tons China India Million 40 1998 2002 2006 0 1990 1994 0 1990 90 75 60 45 1994 1998 2002 2006 120 100 80 60 40 US China Metric Tons India Wheat Soybeans 30 Million 20 Million Metric Tons 15 0 1990 US China India 0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 1994 1998 2002 2006 Corn. China. Soy .
hot. Production actually rose only 0. Crop production (2 slides ago) & stocks (below) don’t show faster crop yield increases. Satellites show that. and as water tables fall. food production will fall.7%/year since 1990. These researchers do not mention eroding soils. nor the problems of finding water to irrigate crops as glaciers and snowpacks fade away.• • • • Researchers studying impacts of climate change project world food production to rise 110% by 2080. In the tropics. World Grain Stocks 140 120 100 80 60 40 Days of Consumption 20 0 1960 Earth Policy Institute.9%/year. A world that was turning greener is now turning browner. since 1994. 2006 1970 1980 1990 2000 World Grain Stocks 2010 . up 0. dry summers outweigh warm. wet springs. All the increase will occur away from the tropics.
• Plant crops (food or not) that rebuild soil carbon. • Plant more wheat. feed fewer animals.by degrading soils faster. less rice. Eat less meat. Algerians to France. Rice is water-hungry. Farm Adaptations to Drought • Plant more drought-resistant crops. like System for Rice Intensification. Italians to Sweden. on marginal lands. . Pakistanis to Britain. as Soviets & Chinese did. except briefly . Arabs to Russia. Americans to Canada. • Go North. • Use much more drip irrigation. • Plant smarter. hikes yields & raises drought tolerance.With less food. young man! Mexicans to the US. More space between the roots cuts fertilizer & pests. • Cover reservoirs and irrigation canals to retard evaporation. Chinese to Siberia. Turks to Germany. Bengalis to Greenland? • Increasing crop production may no longer be possible.
Retreating glaciers moisten the soil in Tibet. The Gobi Desert is spreading into northeast China. Italy. Dec.0 -60 -2. More positive is wetter. The Sahara Desert is spreading south.Deserts Are Already Spreading.0 60 +4. 1950-2002 75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 -45 -60 -180 Fig. See Spain. 7 in Dai.0 +2.0 0 0. into Darfur & the Sahel. 2004 • -120 -6. .0 120 +6. 50 Year Trend in Palmer Drought Severity Index. Journal of Hydrometeorology. Greece. More sandstorms visit Beijing. The USA has lucked out so far.0 -4. Trenberth & Qian.0 180 More negative is drier.
That’s almost as much as they include.260 sulfate cooling. less the cooling effect of sulfates. Billion Tons CO Global Emissions -67% Stern Review. 450 is not far. British Government.90 80 CO2 Emission Paths to Business as Usual 550 ppm CO2e 450 ppm CO2e • . (Feb. They understate total warming. We are already at 430 ppm CO2e (including 380 of CO2). above 1750 levels.) 430 ppm CO2e = 380 CO2 + 310 other GHGs . 70 60 e/yr 2 50 40 30 20 10 CO2e (CO2 equivalent) includes warming from CO2 & other GHGs. will be challenging. 2007 IPCC projections OMIT warming before 1990 and after 2099. CO2 Stabilization Paths . October 2006 2020 2040 2060 Total Warming +3°C -78% +2°C 2080 2100 0 2000 Holding eventual warming to 2°C.
7% Canada 2. 20% from natural gas.0% Latin America 5.1% Emissions of other GHGs are not shown.0% Russia 6. etc.11 China 191 0.2% United States 21. China passed the US in 2006.284 increase ~ US + Europe + Mid East + Russia + misc Asia + Latin America + Japan MidEast & C Asia Misc* Asia 7. Indonesia. 33% from transportation. 1997-2005 Million %/ Europe Tons Year 17.70 Russia 206 1.87 Latin America 93 0.62 Middle East 503 3.6% 413 0. = Korea. 17% from industry.224 2. 36% from coal. In the US. 40% comes from electricity. Bangladesh. Malaysia.60 Australia+ 5.90 US 2.284 7.49 Europe 661 4. 2007 • 28.6% China 19. Asia 214 1.89 Canada 85 2.World CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels International Energy Agency. fossil fuel CO2 comes 44% from oil.3% Japan 4. .4% * Misc.59 World +23% over 8 years India 4.2 Billion Tons in 2005 China’s 2.98 Japan 303 3.2% Oceania 1. Thailand.1% Other 11.7% Africa 3. Changes.84 India 182 2.72 misc. Vietnam. Taiwan.43 Africa 88 1.
to 20% of 2007 levels by 2050. no price cap B es usin Us s as ual ).2°C +2°C 80% Reduction 2040 2045 2050 Please contact your US Senators and Representative. tri (H l / Pe cap Udal rice with p • +5°C +4°C Emissions 2 5 Billion Tons / CO 4 3 2 1 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 early 2007: New York Times. World Resources Institute Sa Wa 6 McCain / Lieberman (S) Olver / Gilchrest (H) rs / Kerr y/S now e (S +3°C +2.US CO2 Reduction Paths: Bills in Congress 11 10 9 8 7 Bingaman (S). Ask them to support a US carbon cap & trade system that reduces caps steadily. .8°C nde xma Bo x n (H er (S) ) ) +2. CO2 Cap Bills in Congress . Limit warming to 2°C.
next 3. emissions continue. not 4°. 0. 5°C warming is worse. Norfolk area.6° more is in the pipeline. Long Island. 2° vs 4° Warming . Details to follow: first 2. Cape Cod Gulf Stream + West Antarctic Icecap 1/2 of All Species +4°C threatens civilization itself. then 4. Holding warming to 2°C. prevents these losses: Gross World Product ($45 Trillion) 1/5 of the World’s Food Amazon Rainforest 1/5 of the world’s oxygen supply much of Florida. but it is manageable. finally 5°C. Plus.+1°C is here. 2°C warming is unavoidable.
The invasion lasts for centuries. 2006) (unavoidable damages) . • Ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh. • Greenland icecap collapse becomes irreversible. Oct. (Waxman bill or Sanders-Boxer bill) (selected effects . fall in the tropics. . ~400 years.000 years.11 retired US Generals & Admirals. CNA Corp. April 2007 • Crop yields rise nowhere. British government.450 ppm CO2e . Forest fires worsen. If we play it wrong.Stern Review. Many more major floods • Major heat waves are common. If we play it right. . • Droughts intensify. Deserts spread. melting takes ~3. • Civil wars & border wars over water increase: more Darfurs.2°C Warming . . We choose now how fast and how far. • Hurricane costs double.
avoidable Stern Review & CNA Corp. • More water wars & failed states. . Water is scarce. watered down) additional damages . • Crop yields fall substantially in many areas. • The Amazon rainforest begins to collapse. • Tropical diseases spread farther and faster. Terrorists multiply.550 ppm CO2e (McCain-Lieberman bill. • 15-50% of species face extinction. .3°C Warming . • Hydropower and irrigation decline. • Droughts & hurricanes get much worse.
by 1/3 in many. . • Water wars. no price cap) additional damages . refugee crises & terrorism become intense. to which it’s connected. • Water shortages afflict almost all people.avoidable Stern Review & CNA . • Entire regions cease agriculture altogether.650 ppm CO2e (double pre-industrial levels) (Bingaman bill. 4°C Warming . monsoons often fail. • Methane release from permafrost accelerates. • The West Antarctic ice sheet begins to collapse. • Crop yields fall in all regions. • The Gulf Stream may stop.. “Gulf Stream” is shorthand for the world ocean thermohaline circulation.
Human population falls a lot. Other species fare worse.• 5°C Warming . to match the reduced food supply. World food falls by 1/3 to 1/2. . 5°C Warming . Act now to avoid this..750 ppm CO2e (Business as Usual Emissions) extrapolations Deserts GROW by 2-4 x the size of the US.
Savings ~ $2.5 Trillion.(Business as Usual Emissions: +5°C) Costs Stern Review Damages (inflation-adjusted $) $74 Trillion (present value) = 175% of GWP by 2100. Annual benefits ~ 7 x $420 Billion annual expenses. Damages fall to $20 . each year.5 x US GNP) by 2100. Use Low-Carbon Products: ~ $500 Billion/Year Market by 2050. . $20 Trillion per year (~1. net from each year’s spending. ± 2%.$30 / Ton of CO2. 11-14% of GWP each year $85 / Ton of CO2 To Avoid Most Damages Spend 1% of GWP.
we’d need 100 space shuttle-sized cargo launches every day this century.25 million sq km of mirrors now. so we will breathe them in. . Add iron filings to iron-poor areas of ocean. Breathing sulfates already kills more than 1 million people a year. Oceans may be too small. Algae must suck 8 x as much carbon from the air as the food we harvest contains.to block sunlight We’d need 1.to block sunlight We’d need 500-1. 3 Farm the Oceans . P.take carbon out of the air. Soon carbon can re-enter the air. Tiny creatures eat them. Additional fertilizers (K. Other problems will pop up. Just to break even. 2 Sulfates in the Stratosphere . Algae bloom & suck CO2 from the air. and again in 50.000 flights every day to the stratosphere by big cargo planes.Geo-Engineering Solutions 1 Mirrors in Space . Algae may not sink. Even if the mirrors are as thin as Saran Wrap. The sulfates will fall out eventually. Add that much in 30 years. even if fertilization works perfectly. twice the size of Texas. N) may be needed.
• In January 2007. • • More than 40 other big companies are supportive. General Electric BP America Caterpillar Alcoa Duke Energy DuPont PNM Resources Florida P&L Pacific G&E Lehman Brothers In May 2007. 10 companies called for a carbon cap & trade system to cut US CO2 emissions 60-80% by 2050. 12 companies joined them: General Motors Shell Johnson & Johnson AIG ConocoPhillips Pepsi John Deere Siemens Dow Chemical Alcan Boston Scientific Marsh Inc.Solutions are out there. ready for a carbon cap. Examples: Boeing Wal-Mart Staples National Grid Ford Whirlpool Exelon Texas Utilities (revamped) Chevron Chrysler Cinergy American Electric Power Xerox IBM NRG Energy Bank of America .
Companies pushed include GM. the California Retirement System. and Munich Re look to cut their losses by urging governments to mitigate climate change. • Direct insurers .like Allstate. MetLife. and the Investor Network on Climate Risk ($3 Trillion in managed assets). • • • • • GE Wind Evergreen Solar (PV) Entergy (nuclear power) Bechtel (IGCC coal plants) Wheelabrator (landfill gas) .Lloyd’s of London. • Large investors are pushing many companies to disclose their climate-related risks to shareholders. Dominion Resources and ExxonMobil. the insurance industry has begun to act. Hartford .Companies are set to cash in on green technologies. CFL = compact fluorescent light. . Philips Electronics (CFL lighting) Archer Daniels Midland (ethanol & biodiesel) Johnson Controls (energy management) Magna International (lightweight auto parts) Southwestern Energy (natural gas). For example. • The investors include Merrill Lynch. such as Florida. • Nebraska insurance commissioners require planning for drought risk. Dreyfus.are cutting back coverage in vulnerable areas. Swiss Re. IGCC = integrated gasified combined cycle. • Re-insurers . Meanwhile. Ford. PV = photovoltaic. State Farm.
airlines. 33% Home Heat . .* Trucks. railroads. pipelines. buses. ships Other Transportatio n US CO2 Emissions. US CO2 by Source . Commercial Buildings 3% 2005: USDOE . 6%. by Use • Cars & Other Personal Transportatio n Gas & Oil for . Electricity 7% Industry 17% Coal for Electricity .EIA (US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration) Concentrate on the BIG stuff: coal for electricity (with a carbon cap) & personal transportation.
Waste .0% Natural Gas 21% Hydro 7% Nuclear 19% US DOE EIA Wind .06 Trillion kWh Wood 1.37% Solar .82% for 1st 6 months of 2007 US MWh by Source .63%* Oil 1.01% Coal 49% * Wind: 0.59% Geothermal .6% Other .US Electricity. 2006 4.
Waste .Rivers will dwindle. . highest on hot afternoons. PV costs 30¢/kWh. esp. Scrub out the CO2 with oxyfuel or pre-/post-combustion process. Wood. Store energy to follow loads in water uphill. • Wind . Store the liquid CO2 far underground. Make hydrogen at night. flywheels. • Geothermal . India. compressed air. Pump water uphill at night. US Southeast. • Nuclear . Load shape matches cooling needs well. • Water. but are getting expensive. 1. hydrogen. There’s room for over 100 years of output. on US Plains & NC-MA coast. Growing 30%/yr.2% of US MW • Solar . it’s now cheaper than coal in many places.big potential in US West. Most is used overseas. Italy. high by day. • Coal: Use less. Growing 30%/year.Solutions . More forest fires limit growth.Resource easily exceeds total use. Ring of Fire.Electricity • Price it right retail. batteries.new plants in China. for everyone: low at night.Resource dwarfs total use. thermal (with flat mirrors) 10¢. • Natural Gas & Oil follow loads up & down all day.
GM already did it in Europe. Average 20. Up to 56 mpg New cars average 44 mpg in Europe. Detroit is now nearly bankrupt.. Use pickup trucks & vans only for work that requires them. downsize. Use 5-speeds. HOW? . Ditch SUVs. . .Solutions . Diesel. don’t over-power engines. Regenerative Braking. 45 in Japan. . . Lighten up. Hybrid-Electric.Personal Vehicles US cars get 23 mpg. . Pickups. Hybrid sales are soaring. To cut US vehicle CO2 by 50% in 20 years is not hard. Charge them up at night. vans & SUVs get 16. Toyota has begun to outsell Ford (in the US) & GM (around the world). Store wind on the road with plug-in hybrids.
800 miles) passengers from airplanes to maglev RRs (faster than TGV. .Other Transportation • Fuels . up to 6:1. Shift medium-haul (150 . – Save ethanol & biodiesel for airplanes. up to 1.Cut CO2 emissions further with low-carbon fuels.7:1. soybeans 40%. • Trains. US corn prices rose 75% in 2 years. bullet trains). – Get ethanol from sugar cane (energy out / in ratio = 8:1). Use cellulose? BUT corn ethanol’s ratio is only 0. ships & trucking. and Planes Use high-speed maglev railroads (RRs) for passengers.8:1. Shift long distance freight from trucks to electric RRs.7:1. Boats.Solutions . Better microbes? Hydrogen is extremely tricky to use for transportation. Biodiesel & prairie grass ratio estimates = 0. – Big cargo ships use biodiesel & dual 2 MW wind turbines. Wheat rose 90% this year.
for cold water to cool buildings. air conditioners Insulation . Green roofs. Use day-lighting. Case-specific process changes as energy prices rise. Ventilate more with Variable Speed Drives. occupancy sensors. Use more cogeneration. Don’t over-light.Solutions . Energy Star appliances . reflectors. • Industrial . refrigerators. trees. Turn off un-used lights.Energy $ impact the bottom line.Efficient Buildings + • At Home Use ground source heat pumps. awnings. solar roofs • Commercial - Use ground source heat pumps. honeycomb window shades. Check % IRRs. Better lights . Melt it during the day . caulking Low flow showerheads. Efficiency is generally good already. solar roofs Make ice at night.high R-value in walls & ceiling. clotheslines. Use free cooling (open intakes to night air). Use LCD Energy Star computers.front load clothes washers.compact fluorescents (CFLs) & LEDs. Facility energy managers do their jobs. . microwave ovens.
Don’t super size a vehicle. Walk. . Minimize packaging. (Be healthy!) Park farther away. Keep tire psi up. It’s healthier! Reduce. Use cloth bags. Carpool. Don’t over-size a house. Drive an efficient car. 1 calorie of beef = 7-10 of grain. Fix them when they break.Solutions .Personal Make your home & office efficient. Use bus. RR. Buy things that last. Eat less meat. re-use. Combine errands. Don’t drive much over 55 mph. recycle. Bicycle.
climate change could lead to the collapse of civilization. The Stakes . . These deadlines. determined by nature.” Lester Brown. in the lifetime of today's children. Earth Policy Institute .“We are crossing natural thresholds that we cannot see and violating deadlines that we do not recognize.October 2. 2007 . are not politically negotiable. it may not be too late. With business as usual emissions. If we take action today.
com/juan/congress/.mac.WRITE to CONGRESS.senate.fry/iWeb/Global/Warming.gov/writerep/ or www.house.gov US Senate. Urge them to seek a declining carbon cap.visi.gov US House. citations & references. DC 20515 202-225-3121 Find your people at www. Ask for a carbon cap.com http://web.house. Cut your coal-electric use. Pass this show on to your friends & relatives. Cut your gasoline use. gene. www.com/gene. Gene Fry for more details.fry@rcn. DC 20510 202-224-3121 www.html Contact Questions? . Cut your own carbon use. Dr. falling steadily to 20% of today’s level by 2050.
2006 Grain: production: FAO. www.realclimate. Canada fires: Stock 2006 Falling water tables. CERES (2005.net/~bobg/faqs/scq.0. 440 million MW warming = area of Earth x 0. $30. Schurr 2006. ‘06). Rosenzweig et al. 100 years of emissions storable underground . world Btu ~ US 2006 Btu x 50 yr x 4 (US = 25%) Intense category 4/5 hurricanes .php/archives/2005/04/water-vapour-feedback-or-forcing/#more-142 CO2 levels .NASA GISS Ocean heat gain: 0...I. 1740-1960.iarc. Wind & solar growth %/yr .1958-2005 ..Rind 1990 – 10% > rain needed to offset 1°C warmer . USDOE (distributed energy . Parry. plankton CO2 intake down 7% with warming . Ocean CO2 uptake fell 7%. Arctic ice area .M. land surface & land-ocean .Metz et al. $20/T CO2 .edu/en/home/seaice_extent.Peart et al.Watkiss 2006. 1960s) Permafrost carbon 3-5 x the C humans ever emitted .6°C “in the pipeline” . Herzog. Carbon reduction costs .Behrenfeld 2006 33% > H2O in air at = relative humidity . 2006 US wind MW & kWh % .. 50% .wind tech) .rain-tree. . UCS movie.Kemfert 2005 – Damages 11-14% GWP / yr & $85.Turley 2005. 2005. Fung at Berkeley.com/facts.. Use: Climate Change Futures: Swiss Re & Harvard S Public Health Damages for 2°.org/ne/.e. Wars: CNA. IPCC CO2 un-dissolves as H2O warms: HS chemistry text. Ritchie et al. 0. (USS Nautilus data.g.Lester Brown. Oxygen: www.85 W/m2 (Hansen 2005). see e.Westerling 2006. Plan B v 2.www.stm Desert belts expanded 70 miles.e.0.IPCC.Emanuel 2005 Greenland km3 icecap melting . Wittwer 1992.Lester Brown.Smith Barney/Citigroup (2007). 2006.. Idso 2001 Photosynthesis above 35°C & crop yields fall 8-58% with 1°C or 2°C rise .htm – Arctic Ocean icepack volume & thickness .. Simulation: species not allowed to migrate north.html UCS study for climate change analogies is at www.Webster 2005. Yu 2004. 3°.IPCC Feb.35°C µ heat gain in top 300 m x volume.uaf.g.Mini-References • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • % greenhouse effect by gas .bbc. all 1989 (in Rind et al. 2006 Ocean pH .all Stern Review 2006 Green Companies .most from Stern Review. 1989 (in Rind 1990). 2005 Crop yields fall 30-50% .Stern Review 2006 Coal oxyfuel process. 4°C .uk/2/hi/uk_news/7053903.co. Nature 2006 & Schuster 2007.methane.Reichler 2006 US forest fires up 6 x since 1986 .org/index.. Plan B v 2. Siberian fires: Tchebakova 2006.g.g.ijis.climatechoices. 2007. MIT.Keeling et al. (IPCC) 2005.htm $74 trillion damages . hurricane energy tracks SSTs .Hansen 2005 Temperature increases. Browning of Earth began in 1994 . Worldwatch Institute. CH4 source: http://www. disappearing lakes & rivers . 2007.Behrenfeld..radix.Rignot 2006. news. shrank 7% from 1900 .Rothrock 1999.USDOE-EIA. $20 trillion/year . 1990) CO2 fertilization in greenhouses .e. ~ 2005 Tree biomass falls 40%: Overpeck & Bartlein.
This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
We've moved you to where you read on your other device.
Get the full title to continue listening from where you left off, or restart the preview.