SIAM Minisymposium on Climate Change held at the San Diego Joint Meeting

as interpreted by

The San Diego Minisymposia Two Minisymposia

Richard McGehee SIAM Minisymposium: From Global Predictions to Local Action Organized by Inez Fung, Chris Jones and Mary Lou Zeeman SIAM Special Session on Environmental Mathematics: Some Mathematical Problems on Climate Change and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Organized by Gerald North and Samuel Shen
http://www.bowdoin.edu/faculty/m/mlzeeman/state-of-the-planet/pdf/fung-jones-zeeman-miniJMM08.pdf http://www.bowdoin.edu/faculty/m/mlzeeman/state-of-the-planet/pdf/shen-north-mini-JMM08.pdf

Seminar on the Mathematics of Climate Change School of Mathematics January 30, 2008

The San Diego Minisymposia Disclaimer

The San Diego Minisymposia Global Circulation Models

I have not attempted a comprehensive report on all the lectures. Omission of a lecture means that I didn’t understand it, I slept through it, or I couldn’t reconstruct it from my notes. Errors and omissions are entirely my responsibility and should not be ascribed to the speakers.

Historical Overview of Climate Change Science, IPCC AR4, p.96
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_CH01.pdf

The San Diego Minisymposia

The San Diego Minisymposia

Model Complexity
“The complexity of climate models has increased over the last few decades. The additional physics incorporated in the models are shown pictorially by the different features of the modelled world.”
Historical Overview of Climate Change Science, IPCC AR4, p.96
http://ipccwg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_CH01.pdf

Geographic Resolution
Geographic resolution characteristic of the generations of climate models used in the IPCC Assessment Reports: FAR (IPCC, 1990), SAR (IPCC, 1996), TAR (IPCC, 2001a), and AR4 (2007).

Historical Overview of Climate Change Science, IPCC AR4, p.96 http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_CH01.pdf

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edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_CH10. It’s important to figure out how. IPCC AR4.pdf The San Diego Minisymposia Clouds Stochastic treatment of cloud-radiation interactions in climate models Message: We don’t know how to model clouds.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_CH01.The San Diego Minisymposia IPCC Predictions Despite increased sophistication. Scale Invariance. However. Atmospheric Brown Clouds and Climate Change Message: Pollution mitigates the global effect of the greenhouse gases. Somerville (Credit: Sylvia Bal Somerville) Richard Somerville Scripps Institution of Oceanography Historical Overview of Climate Change Science. They produced global average surface temperature changes (due to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration) ranging from 1. p. If the model is run with increasing resolution. and Climate Prediction Message: Although temperature can be predicted consistently. The San Diego Minisymposia Brown Clouds Greenhouse Effect. The San Diego Minisymposia Precipitation Scaling Laws.pdf The San Diego Minisymposia IPCC Predictions Perhaps much of the intermodel variance is explained by differences in the treatment of clouds.ucar.803 http://ipcc-wg1.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_CH10. precipitation cannot. William Collins Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory University of California. brown clouds can have the local effect of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. p. IPCC AR4. simply by altering the way that cloud radiative properties were treated in the model.9°C to 5. thereby approximately replicating the overall intermodel range of sensitivities. V. precipitation models show no sign of converging. carried out by Senior and Mitchell (1993). Ramanathan Scripps Institution of Oceanography Global Climate Projections. The San Diego Minisymposia Clouds “The strong effect of cloud processes on climate model sensitivities to greenhouse gases was emphasized further through a now-classic set of General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments.” Dr.803 http://ipcc-wg1.ucar. p. Berkeley National Center for Atmospheric Research Global Climate Projections. the variance of the predictions has not decreased dramatically.114 http://ipcc-wg1. It is somewhat unsettling that the results of a complex climate model can be so drastically altered by substituting one reasonable cloud parametrization for another. J.4°C.pdf 2 . IPCC AR4. Richard C.ucar.

PNAS.sciam.edu/~tapio/papers/dry_scaling.gps. Ramanathan.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (in press) “The scaling laws for the dependence of eddy fields on mean fields exhibit a regime transition. At the regime transition. they are causing mischief in other places.html The San Diego Minisymposia Global Atmospheric Circulation Macroturbulence and the General Circulation of the Atmosphere Tapio Schneider California Institute of Technology The San Diego Minisymposia Global Atmospheric Circulation Tapio Schneider & Christopher Walker. Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle.com/article.wikipedia.” http://www. Too”.” The San Diego Minisymposia Brown Clouds “The researchers found that ‘this brown cloud was as much as 50 percent of the background heating. While they may be cooling the globe. Langford University of Guelph Message: The global atmospheric circulation pattern has two steady states: three cells (today) and one cell (65 million years ago).pnas. ‘We are sometimes thinking that aerosols might save us from global warming’ by reflecting sunlight and dimming Earth below. our simulations suggest that absorbing aerosols in atmospheric brown clouds may have played a major role in the observed regional climate and hydrological cycle changes and have masked as much as 50% of the surface warming due to the global increase in greenhouse gases.org/cgi/content/abstract/102/15/5326 The San Diego Minisymposia Global Atmospheric Circulation Hysteresis in a Rotating Differentially Heated Spherical Shell of Boussinesq Fluid William F. 2005 http://www. the dependence of the eddy flux of surface potential temperature and the dependence of the vertically integrated eddy momentum flux convergence on mean fields changes—a result with implications for climate stability and for the general circulation of an atmosphere. et al.lsc.pdf Message: You can’t model global atmospheric circulation without modeling eddies.’ he says. between a regime in which the extratropical thermal stratification and tropopause height are controlled by radiation and convection and a regime in which baroclinic entropy fluxes modify the extratropical thermal stratification and tropopause height.caltech. Scientific American. August.’” David Biello. but ‘our study shows us not necessarily. “Scaling Laws and Regime Transitions of Macroturbulence in Dry Atmospheres.cfm?chanID=sa003&ref=feedburner&articleId=235006DA-E7F2-99DF30481E19A0C76818 V.png http://apollo. for example.vsc.The San Diego Minisymposia Brown Clouds “Thus.org/wiki/Image:AtmosphCirc2. Today we have ice on the poles. 65 million years ago. 2007 http://www. “Brown Haze from Cooking Fires Cooking Earth.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter10/single_cell. including its tropical Hadley circulation. dinosaurs roamed the Antarctic. 3 . The San Diego Minisymposia Global Atmospheric Circulation Today Cretaceous http://en.

preprint http://www.math.pdf http://www.columbia.amath.” Geophysical Research Letters. but can explain only about 20% of the variation.ca/gordon/misc/res.edu/research/articles/Tung/journals/GRL-solar-07.edu/~pkd1/Treaty5.edu/research/articles/Tung/journals/GRL-solar-07.2K attributable to the 11-year solar cycle. we obtain a global warming signal of almost 0. “Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection. Roy Radner New York University Prajit K.” Self-Enforcing Climate-Change Treaties Message: Game Theory can be used to design treaties that need no enforcement by an international body.ualberta.html The San Diego Minisymposia Solar Cycles The San Diego Minisymposia Solar Cycles “By projecting surface temperature data (1959–2004) onto the spatial structure obtained objectively from the composite mean difference between solar max and solar min years. Swaters University of Alberta Message: Sunspot cycles correspond with surface temperature cycles. Self-Enforcing Climate-Change Treaties. 2007 http://www.amath.washington. Ka-Kit Tung University of Washington http://pacific. Dutta & Roy Radner.pdf 4 . Camp and Ka Kit Tung.pdf The San Diego Minisymposia Self-Enforcing Treaties The San Diego Minisymposia Self-Enforcing Treaties “Hence the GPO [Global Pareto Optimum] can be sustained by a ‘trigger strategy’ in which the players threaten to revert to the BAU [Business As Usual] (given the then current state) in the case of a defection.The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report The San Diego Minisymposia Solar Cycles Some Simple Models Used in Support of Climate Change Studies Ocean Circulation Dynamics of grounded meridional abyssal flow Gordon E.washington.” Charles D.

The Mathematics of Climate Change Message: What is the cost of future environmental disaster? Should it be discounted? Solved by using a convex combination of countable and purely finitely additive measures.766 http://ipcc-wg1.The San Diego Minisymposia Risk Assessment The San Diego Minisymposia Really Simple Models The 2007 IPCC Report: A 20th Century Mathematician Ponders the 21st Century Predictions Message: Very simple models can be informative.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_CH10.3. Assume that global mean temperature is a logarithmic function of atmospheric CO2.ucar. p. IPCC AR4.chichilnisky.com/ Richard McGehee University of Minnesota The San Diego Minisymposia Really Simple Models The San Diego Minisymposia Really Simple Models How to Make a “Pretty Good” Prediction of 21st Century Climate Change without a Computer Assume that 54% of emitted CO2 remains in the atmosphere. Assume a climate sensitivity of 3. The San Diego Minisymposia Surface Temperature Predictions Global Climate Projections.pdf 5 . Graciela Chichilnisky Economics Department Columbia University http://www.