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Oil Market Report

Currency or fundamentals?

5 FEBRUARY 2013

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil market


Brent crude has rallied too far on hopes of a continued global economic recovery and a strong EURUSD. OPEC production cuts have been lagging seasonally falling demand with output still around 30.5 mb/d, above the estimated Q1-13 call on OPEC below 30 mb/d. Several sources suggest Libyan oil production fell sharply in January. If so, it may have been a key factor driving the Brent crude price higher last month. Between November 1 last year and February 1, the front month Brent crude contract rose from $108.17/b to $116.76/b. China does not face a hard landing, the Eurozone is not breaking up, the US has not fallen off the fiscal cliff (yet) and equity markets have experienced a January rally stronger than anything posted in over 10 years. Of course, these factors justify a higher oil price. However, has it risen too much? Further, did OPEC cut production too far at the end of last year and going into a seasonally weak H1-13 fearing overproduction? In our view, these reductions have not been excessive. Available estimates suggest OPEC production hit a 15 month low of 30.48 mb/d in January. While modest compared to last year, output remains 0.5 mb/d above the estimated call on OPEC for Q1-13 and nearly 1.4 mb/d above the projected call for Q2-13. The currency effect appears to have had a significant bearing on the latest crude oil price gains. Adjusting for the 5% EURUSD appreciation which occurred between November 1 last year and last Friday, arguably had it not been for the stronger EURUSD the price may have been around $110.7/b on February 1. However, this is not entirely accurate as the greenback, from the wider perspective of the USD index, depreciated little over the period. Several sources now suggest Libyan oil production fell by a substantial 320 kb/d in January to a 12-month low of only 1.1 mb/d. This is highly consistent with the fact that the Brent Dubai spread has rallied to levels unseen since the Libyan crisis in 2011, and backwardation in the Brent crude oil curve has strengthened even further. We see little upside in the Brent crude price above $116/b barring supply disruptions in the MENA region or a further rally in EURUSD. Developments in Libya should be closely monitored, especially given its close relationship to the European crude oil market and its potentially swift impact on prices there. Indications of rebounding Libyan production could quickly drive the Brent crude price lower again. Due to continued improvements in macro data as well as changes in the EURUSD we raise our price forecast to $110/b in Q1-13 and $107.5/b in Q2-13.

Crude oil price


(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -13 n fe -1 b 3 7 0 N EXW I YM T IC Bre t E n

IEA global crude oil demand estimates


(mb/d)
9 ,5 1 9 ,0 1 9 ,5 0 9 ,0 0 8 ,5 9 8 ,0 9 8 ,5 8 8 ,0 8 8 ,5 7 8 ,0 7 8 ,5 6 8 ,0 6 8 ,5 5 8 ,0 5 8 ,5 4 o 9 kt-0 o 0 kt-1 o 1 kt-1 o 2 kt-1 a r-1 p 0 a r-1 p 1 a r-1 p 2 ju 9 l-0 ju 0 l-1 ju 1 l-1 ja -1 n 0 ja -1 n 1 ja -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ja -1 n 3 21 00 21 01 21 02 21 03

Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Current global crude oil demand estimates


2012 (mb/d) 89.8 89.17 88.80 Revision (kb/d) +170 +130 +/-0 2013 (mb/d) 90.8 90.11 89.55 Revision (kb/d) +240 +110 -10

IEA EIA OPEC

SEB average Brent crude oil price forecast


($/b) 2013 2014 2015 Q1 110 Q2 107.5 Q3 110 Q4 110 Full Year 109.4 110.0 115.0

1 1

1 3

1 5

1 7

1 9

2 1

2 3

2 5

2 7

2 9

10 5 15 4 10 4 15 3 10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0

(ICE, $/b)

Crude oil

Crude oil price

SEB Oil Market Report

Brent futures curve

17 1 16 1 15 1 14 1 13 1 12 1 11 1 10 1 19 0 18 0 17 0 16 0 15 0 14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0

Speculative positions WTI

20 07

20 08

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

20 09

IC Bre t E n

(NYMEX, lots, futures and options, weekly data)


21 00

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)

N EXW I YM T

Nt e
1 -0 -0 3 2 4 1 -0 -0 3 1 4 1 -1 -0 2 2 4

Ln og

Sh rt o

21 01

21 02

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3
m r-1 a 3 ju -1 n 3 se -1 p 3 d c-1 e 3 m r-1 a 4 ju -1 n 4 se -1 p 4 d c-1 e 4 m r-1 a 5 ju -1 n 5 se -1 p 5 d c-1 e 5 m r-1 a 6 ju -1 n 6 se -1 p 6 d c-1 e 6 m r-1 a 7 ju -1 n 7 se -1 p 7 d c-1 e 7 m r-1 a 8 ju -1 n 8

21 03
8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6

(NYMEX, $/b)

(daily closing)
m r-1 a 3 ju -1 n 3 se -1 p 3 d c-1 e 3 m r-1 a 4 ju -1 n 4 se -1 p 4 d c-1 e 4 m r-1 a 5 ju -1 n 5 se -1 p 5 d c-1 e 5 m r-1 a 6 ju -1 n 6 se -1 p 6 d c-1 e 6 m r-1 a 7 1 -0 -0 3 2 4 1 -0 -0 3 1 4 1 -1 -0 2 2 4

WTI futures curve

Benchmark spreads

12 month time spread

(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango, <0: backwardation)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 -2 4 -2 6 -2 8

1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2

-4 -6 -8 -1 0

1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2

IC Bre t E n

N EXW I YM T

W Im u B n T in s re t Bre t m u D b i n in s u a Bre t m u U ls n in s ra

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil
US crude oil inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
3 90 3 80 3 70 3 60 3 50 3 40 3 30 3 20 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye av ar erag e 2 2 01 2 3 01

OECD total industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
22 85 20 80 27 75 25 70 22 75 20 70 27 65 25 60 22 65 20 60 27 55 25 50 22 55 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OECD Europe industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
14 00 13 00 12 00 11 00 10 00 90 9 90 8 90 7 90 6 90 5 90 4 90 3 90 2 90 1 90 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OECD North America industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
10 40 17 35 15 30 12 35 10 30 17 25 15 20 12 25 10 20 17 15 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
40 5 45 4 40 4 45 3 40 3 45 2 40 2 45 1 40 1 45 0 40 0 35 9 30 9 35 8 30 8 35 7 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OPEC production
(kb/d, monthly data)
300 30 O EC 2 p d ctio P -1 ro u n 300 20 300 10 300 00 200 90 200 80 200 70 200 60 200 50 200 40 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 21 03 O EC 1 p d ctio P -1 ro u n

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

European oil product markets


Refinery economics in Europe have improved significantly so far this year, bringing considerable relief to refiners. In February cracks were stronger in all parts of the barrel led by gasoline, which itself began to rebound in January. Support has also been provided by an additional refinery closure in the Atlantic basin (Hess Corporations Port Reading facility in New Jersey producing 70 kb/d) and disruptions in Libya (strike at Ras Lanuf) and the UK (fire at Stanlow). With low refinery utilization ahead as facilities switch from winter to summer configuration, cracks may very well stay high enough to satisfy refiners. Light ends: In addition to the aforementioned supply issues, a sharp rebound in US implied demand, pushing inventories back toward their five-year average, has boosted gasoline market sentiment. Demand is also healthy in Europe and Asia. Furthermore, European inventories have fallen below their five-year range, helped by recent substantial shipments to West Africa and the Middle East. With refinery maintenance and then driving season not that far away, the crack has good potential to remain strong. Further, gasoline also supports the naphtha market through blending demand while petrochemical industry requirements are low, e.g. due to propanes relative cheapness. In the short-term, petrochemical demand is likely to remain poor due to maintenance. Consequently, naphtha appears vulnerable, a view further supported by the fact that European inventories stand well above their five-year average, while Asian demand is being met by plentiful arrivals. Middle distillates: A winter with no serious cold spells will soon end. With forecasts also relatively warm middle distillate sentiment is subdued. Weak demand and incoming arbitrage cargoes have led to increases in European diesel inventories, a fairly common situation at this time of year though. Still, refinery maintenance is likely to provide support before demand accelerates once again with the advent of the driving season. Despite weak European demand jet fuel prices are supported by still low inventories and limited supplies. Asian kerosene requirements for winter heating are however likely to have peaked, removing one source of support. The high jet fuel premium and very low diesel premium (to gasoil) simplify choices for refiners seeking to remain in maximum jet mode. Heavy ends: The upcoming Chinese New Year (with celebrations likely to last for up to two weeks from February 10) weighs on the fuel oil market. Both feedstock demand and bunker demand are weak. Currently, plentiful cargoes arriving in Asia at the beginning of the year are making it difficult for arbitrage to work. Consequently, European inventories remain high. Utility demand is however sound in parts of Asia and South America, in particular supporting low sulphur fuel oil. Due to more limited supply during the approaching maintenance period, downside risk is probably relatively limited in spite of plentiful supply at the moment.

European light end benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
10 20 15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -13 n fe -1 b 3 J t fu l e e D se 1 p m ie l 0 p G so 0 % a il .1 60 5 N p th ah a G so e a lin

European middle distillate benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5

European fuel oil benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
75 7 70 5 75 2 70 0 65 7 60 5 65 2 60 0 55 7 50 5 55 2 50 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 45 7 H h su h r fu l o (3 % ig lp u e il .5 ) L w su h r fu l o (1 % o lp u e il .0 )

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US gasoline and distillate inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 j f m a m j j a s o n d G so e 5 ye r a e g a lin a v ra e G so e 2 1 a lin 0 3 D istilla fu l o 5 ye r a e g te e il a v ra e D istilla fu l o 2 1 te e il 0 3

US product benchmarks
(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
30 6 30 5 30 4 30 3 30 2 30 1 30 0 20 9 20 8 20 7 20 6 20 5 20 4 20 3 G lin aso e H a go e tin il

US refinery utilization
(%, weekly data)
9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 j f m a m j j a s o n d 2 0 -2 1 a g 0 8 0 2 v. 21 03

ICE Gasoil and European premiums to Gasoil


($/t, daily closing)
10 10 17 05 15 00 12 05 10 00 95 7 90 5 95 2 90 0 85 7 80 5 85 2 80 0 75 7 70 5 IC G so 0 % (le E a il .1 ft) J t fu l p m m (rig t) e e re iu h D sel 1 p m p m m (rig t) ie 0 p re iu h 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0

European product cracks


($/b, daily closing)
3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m 1 ar-1 a 1 pr-1 m 1 aj-1 ju -1 n 1 jul-1 1 au -1 g 1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n ov-1 1 de 1 c-1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m 2 ar-1 a 2 pr-1 m 2 aj-1 ju -1 n 2 jul-1 2 au -1 g 2 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n ov-1 2 de 2 c-1 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 -2 5 N htha ap J t fu l e e Lo sulph r fue o w u l il D iese 1 p l 0 pm G asolin e G asoil 0 % .1 H su u fue oil igh lph r l

European low - high sulphur fuel oil differential


($/t, daily closing)
7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3
0

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
Regional 3-2-1 cracks
($/b, daily closing)
4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Asia (M a in s) U (W I) S T Eu p (Bre t) ro e n Pe n G lf (D b i) rsia u ua

European naphtha stocks


(kt, monthly data)
10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , top a ne 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

European gasoline stocks


(kt, monthly data)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3

European jet fuel stocks


(kt, monthly data)
80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 30 5 30 0 20 5 20 0 10 5 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

European gasoil stocks


(kt, monthly data)
30 10 30 00 20 90 20 80 20 70 20 60 20 50 20 40 20 30 20 20 20 10 20 00 10 90 10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 j f

European fuel oil stocks


(kt, monthly data)
15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

5 ye r ra g to a n e, p 5 ye r ra g b tto a n e, o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US implied crude oil demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
1 ,8 5 1 ,6 5 1 ,4 5 1 ,2 5 1 ,0 5 1 ,8 4 1 ,6 4 1 ,4 4 1 ,2 4 1 ,0 4 1 ,8 3 1 ,6 3 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ag y v. 21 02 21 03

US implied gasoline demand


(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
9 ,7 9 ,6 9 ,5 9 ,4 9 ,3 9 ,2 9 ,1 9 ,0 8 ,9 8 ,8 8 ,7 8 ,6 8 ,5 8 ,4 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 av y g. 2 2 01 2 3 01

US implied distillate demand


(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
5 ,4 5 ,2 5 ,0 4 ,8 4 ,6 4 ,4 4 ,2 4 ,0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 a g. y v 2 2 01 2 3 01

Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York


($/t, daily closing)
4 4 4 0 3 6 3 2 2 8 2 4 2 0 1 6 1 2 8 4 0 -4 -8 -1 2 -1 6 -2 0

Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York


($/t, daily closing)
2 0 H a g o a il e tin il/G so 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 J t fu l/K ro n e e e se e

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3

-2 5

ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -13 n fe -1 b 3

SEB Oil Market Report

Related energy markets


US natural gas price
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

UK natural gas price


(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
1 5 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 $ M /M Btu (le a ft xis) G /th rm (rig t a Bp e h xis) 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

21 03

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

Nordic power price


(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0

Continental power price


(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

21 03 se -1 p 2 n v-1 o 2

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

EUA price
(ECX ICE, /t, December current year, weekly closing)
3 5 3 3 3 1 2 9 2 7 2 5 2 3 2 1 1 9 1 7 1 5 1 3 1 1 9 7 5 3

21 03

Coal price
(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
15 3 10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0

n v-1 o 0

m r-1 a 0

m r-1 a 1

n v-1 o 1

m r-1 a 2

m j-1 a 0

m j-1 a 1

m j-1 a 2

se -1 p 0

se -1 p 1

ju 0 l-1

ju 1 l-1

ja -1 n 0

ja -1 n 1

ja -1 n 2

ju 2 l-1

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

21 02

ja -1 n 3

21 03

SEB Oil Market Report

Market indicators
MSCI World equity market index
(weekly closing)
10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 30 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0

UBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market index


(price index, weekly closing)
10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

21 03

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

JPM global manufacturing PMI


(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
5 8 5 6 5 4 5 2 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4

Regional PMI:s
(monthly data)
6 2 6 0 5 8 5 6 5 4 5 2 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00

U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a R fe n e re ce

21 01

21 02

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

Regional industrial production growth


(%, y/y, monthly data)
2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00

21 03

OECD composite leading indicators


(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 C in h a Eu zo e ro n O D EC U A S R fe n e re ce

U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a

9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4

21 01

21 02

9 3 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research

10

21 03

21 03

SEB Oil Market Report

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This statement affects your rights
This report has been compiled by SEBs Commodity Research, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (SEB), to provide background information only. It is confidential to the recipient, any dissemination, distribution, copying, or other use of this communication is strictly prohibited.

Good faith & limitations


Opinions, projections and estimates contained in this report represent the authors present opinion and are subject to change without notice. Although information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to its correctness, completeness or accuracy of the contents, and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. To the extent permitted by law, SEB accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

Disclosures
The analysis and valuations, projections and forecasts contained in this report are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties; different assumptions could result in materially different results. The inclusion of any such valuations, projections and forecasts in this report should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the SEB Group or any person or entity within the SEB Group that such valuations, projections and forecasts or their underlying assumptions and estimates will be met or realized. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. This document does not constitute investment advice and is being provided to you without regard to your investment objectives or circumstances. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base investment decisions upon such investigations as they deem necessary. This document does not constitute an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or solicitation of, any offer to subscribe for any securities or other financial instruments.

Conflicts of Interest
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SEB Commodity Research


Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 9248 9230 Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47

www.seb.se