1 Growth Core

Growth Core – Pre Camp – Index
Growth Core – Pre Camp – Index.................................................................................................................. 1 Uniqueness.................................................................................................................................................... 3 Economy Yes/No ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Economy High Now ............................................................................................................................... 5 Economy High Now ............................................................................................................................... 6 Economy Low Now................................................................................................................................ 7 Economy Low Now................................................................................................................................ 8 Economy Low Now................................................................................................................................ 9 Economy Low Now.............................................................................................................................. 10 Sustainability Yes/No .............................................................................................................................. 11 Growth is Sustainable ......................................................................................................................... 12 Growth is Sustainable ......................................................................................................................... 13 Growth is Sustainable ......................................................................................................................... 14 Growth is Sustainable ......................................................................................................................... 15 Growth Not Sustainable ...................................................................................................................... 16 Growth Not Sustainable ...................................................................................................................... 17 Growth Not Sustainable ...................................................................................................................... 18 Links ............................................................................................................................................................ 19 Transportation K2 Economic Growth.................................................................................................. 20 Transportation K2 Economic Growth.................................................................................................. 21 Transportation K2 Economic Growth.................................................................................................. 22 Impacts........................................................................................................................................................ 23 Growth Good .......................................................................................................................................... 24 Growth Good – War ............................................................................................................................ 25 Growth Good – War ............................................................................................................................ 26 Growth Good – War ............................................................................................................................ 27 Growth Good – Terrorism 1/2 ............................................................................................................ 28 Growth Good – Terrorism 2/2 ............................................................................................................ 29 Growth Good – Terrorism ................................................................................................................... 30 Growth Good – Environment 1/2 ....................................................................................................... 31 Growth Good – Environment 2/2 ....................................................................................................... 32


2 Growth Core

Growth Good – Environment .............................................................................................................. 33 Growth Good – Environment .............................................................................................................. 34 Growth Good – Space 1/2 ................................................................................................................... 35 Growth Good – Space 2/2 ................................................................................................................... 36 Growth Good – Space ......................................................................................................................... 37 Growth Good – Space ......................................................................................................................... 38 Growth Good – AT – Disease .............................................................................................................. 39 Growth Good – AT – Poverty .............................................................................................................. 40 Growth Bad ............................................................................................................................................. 41 Growth Bad – War .............................................................................................................................. 42 Growth Bad – War .............................................................................................................................. 43 Growth Bad – War .............................................................................................................................. 44 Growth Bad – War .............................................................................................................................. 45 Growth Bad – Environment ................................................................................................................ 46 Growth Bad – Environment ................................................................................................................ 47 Growth Bad – Environment ................................................................................................................ 48 Growth Bad – Disease ......................................................................................................................... 49 Growth Bad – Disease ......................................................................................................................... 50 Growth Bad – Disease ......................................................................................................................... 51 Growth Bad – Poverty 1/2 .................................................................................................................. 52 Growth Bad – Poverty 2/2 .................................................................................................................. 53 Growth Bad – Poverty ......................................................................................................................... 54 Growth Bad – Poverty ......................................................................................................................... 55 Growth Bad – AT – Decline Causes War ............................................................................................. 56 Growth Bad – AT – Space/Asteroids ................................................................................................... 57 Growth Bad – AT – Terrorism ............................................................................................................. 58 Misc ............................................................................................................................................................. 59 Transition Solves ................................................................................................................................. 60 Transition Solves ................................................................................................................................. 61 Transition Solves ................................................................................................................................. 62 Transition Fails .................................................................................................................................... 63 Transition Fails .................................................................................................................................... 64 Transition Fails .................................................................................................................................... 65


3 Growth Core


UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 4 Growth Core Economy Yes/No .

in the form of excessively blunt spending cuts and across-the-board tax increases – greater political effectiveness would serve to remove other uncertainties that inhibit certain economic activities. Each of these six factors suggests actual and potential economic healing.S. not surprisingly. the recent stream of weak economic data. So. future prosperity and the opportunities it brings with it are nothing short of remarkable. Over the course of this series I intend to provide numerous reasons and evidence behind my cheerful view of our country's exciting future economic potential. As this occurs. it is important to understand the positive factors and why they are not enough as yet.000. Meanwhile. albeit an elongated one. The third and fourth positive factors relate to housing and the labor market. they have provoked excitement in some circles that the US may finally be poised to leave behind the depressing trio of unusually sluggish growth. job growth. Then there is the US Federal Reserve Board. While I hoped that they might be proven right. 6-8-12 *Mohamed. and therefore more powerful and healthy. Despite legitimate questions about the effectiveness of its unconventional and ever-experimental policy stance. With this and other elements of a disheartening employment report now suddenly raising widespread worries about the underlying health and durability of America’s recovery. consistent housing market and job growth. Rich households also hold significant resources that could be deployed in support of both consumption and investment. there is no economy that exists today nor any economy that has ever existed on the face of this earth that is more productive. and activist federal reserve El-Erian. Their cash balances are extremely high. Indeed. if the Fed makes an inadvertent mistake (the likelihood of this is considerable. and principal obligations have been termed out. the Fed appears willing to be even more activist if the economy weakens. For some observers. confirmed my] /WFI-MB This leads me to perhaps some of the most important statements I will make in this whole series of articles: The true strength of an economy lies within its productivity capabilities. Yes. In addition to removing the damaging specter of the fiscal cliff – a potentially disruptive economic hindrance equivalent to some 4% of GDP. But even more importantly. These two long-standing areas of persistent weakness have constituted a major drag on the type of cyclical dynamics that traditionally thrust the US out of its periodic economic slowdowns. http://www. and high and growing inequality. . But recent data support the view that the housing sector could be in the process of establishing a bottom. economy of today. than the U. interest payments on debt are low. In this context.minyanville. Finally. generating significant free cash flow. Many of them are successfully tapping into buoyant demand in emerging economies. that is an optimistic statement.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 5 Growth Core Economy High Now Economy turning around now—strong companies and rich households. including May’s timid net job creation of only 69. Economy strong—US productive capabilities are unmatched anywhere Carnevale. Invest management advisor and article contributor. persistently high unemployment. “The US economy sitting on the threshold of a new golden age? Part 1” Online. For starters. with the November elections in sight and subsequently out of the way. rather than tightening monetary policy prematurely. our future productivity over the next couple of decades is poised to grow exponentially. has nonetheless been consistently positive since September] /WFI-MB Six internal factors suggest that the United States’ economy is slowly healing. 6-8-12 [Chuck. http://seekingalpha. “Is America Healing Fast Enough?” Online. while anemic. but also realistic at the same time. large US multinational companies are as healthy as I have ever seen them. it is more likely to err on the side of staying accommodative for too long. these factors were deemed sufficient to form the critical mass needed to propel the economy into escape velocity. Company cash is not the only source of considerable spending power waiting on the sidelines. some believe that politicians in Washington might finally be in a better position to agree to much-needed grand policy bargains. given the country’s complex situation and the “unusually uncertain” outlook).

said in a note to clients.telegram.” Multiple factors have ensured continued US growth—job growth.' uneven.6 percent in 2013 . Associated press. On a more positive note for the economy.4 percent in 2012 and 2. April’s big gain followed a series of latest recovery is made weaker reports in recent weeks that showed hiring slowed. One key factor that has helped the U. 3-22-12 [Alain. Investment by private businesses in 2012 has declined slightly from last year.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 6 Growth Core Economy High Now Economy recovering now—increases in manufacturing Rugabar. production and a measure of hiring all rose. who had predicted a decline after several regional reports showed manufacturing growth weakened last month. Europe's overall GDP this year is forecast to shrink 0. But while the group expects economic growth in the U. “US economy shows strength. recovery.S. before recovering to 2. “This survey will ease concerns that the softer tone of the incoming news in recent months marked the start of a renewed slowdown in growth.cbsnews. manufacturing grew last month at the fastest pace in 10 months. The gain led investors to shift money out of bonds and into stocks. Journalist.1 percent. debt reduction. the highest level since June.2 percent in 2013. The ISM manufacturing index is closely watched in part because it’s the first major economic report for each month.” Online. economy is its avoidance of the major government spending cuts and tax hikes that many European countries have adopted since the 2008 financial crisis. pinching spending and constraining growth. The sharp increase surprised analysts..S. inflation remains in check and is not expected to rise so long as the Federal Reserve maintains its policy of supporting low interest rates for the foreseeable future. suggesting that the economy is healthier than recent data had indicated. http://www. .com/8301-505123_162-57439004/oecd-global-economic-recovery-is-fragileuneven/] /WFI-MB The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development projects in a new report that GDP growth across the group's 34 member countries will slow this year to 1. "The crisis in the eurozone remains the single biggest downside risk facing the global outlook. to rise 2." said OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan in a statement.S. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.8 percent in 2011.6 percent. The April survey from the Institute for Supply Management was a hopeful sign ahead of Friday’s monthly jobs report and helped the Dow Jones industrial average end the day at its highest level in more than four years. The trade group of purchasing managers said Tuesday that its index of manufacturing activity reached 54. although rising energy prices have muted those positive effects.8 in April. “OECD: Global economic recovery is 'fragile. But the expiration of tax cuts and unemployment benefits. an economist at Capital Economics. Increasing personal consumption and moderate job growth is boosting incomes in the U. avoidance of spending cuts and tax increases Sherter. applications for unemployment benefits rose and factory output dropped.S.S. http://www. New orders. coupled with automatic spending cuts negotiated between Democrats and Republicans as part of a budget compromise last year. Americans also continue to reduce their debt.” Paul Dales. down from 1. although we doubt it will set the world alight. “We think the of sterner stuff. could derail the] /WFI-MB U.” Online. 3-2-12 *Christopher. the OECD warns.

The program injects money into the financial system.70.7 per cent to 12. Dow Jones industrial futures fell 0. Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 2.S.6 per cent to 3.37. Global investors are worried that the recession-hit country can't come up with the money needed to save its banks without bankrupting the government.44. said markets were "slightly disappointed" that Bernanke had not said the Fed would extend its Treasury bond-buying program.1 per cent to 4.835. Taiwan. Markets were also bracing for the possibility of glum economic data from China over the weekend.502. Europe and the US Sampson.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 7 Growth Core Economy Low Now World and regional economies are declining now—weak economic data from China.1 per cent in the first quarter and April factory output grew at its slowest rate since the 2008 crisis. China's central bank also said Thursday that commercial banks would be allowed to pay higher deposit rates than those dictated by the government. South Korea's Kospi dropped 0. Indonesia.S. An effort by China on Thursday to reverse a sharp economic downturn with a surprise cut to a benchmark lending rate failed to rejuvenate markets because it may have been too little. Andrew Sullivan of Piper Jaffray Asia in Hong Kong said in a commentary that investor concerns remained focused on Europe — where a lingering financial crisis has now infected Spain and its banks. known as quantitative easing. Benchmarks in mainland China. Singapore. Germany's DAX lost 1.063. Bernanke avoided sending any signals in an appearance before members of the U. managing director of Lyncean Holdings in Hong Kong.394.64. In early European trading. Analysts said the moves suggest May trade and economic data due to be released in the next few days could be unexpectedly weak.316 and S&P 500 futures lost 0. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave no hint of immediate action to jump-start growth in the world's No. online. Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 1 per cent to 5.” Canadian Business. U. lowering interest rates to spur lending and growth.9 per cent to 18.96 and France's CAC40 fell 1. spurring authorities to take more urgent action. Francis Lun." he] /WFI-MB World stock markets fell Friday. The 69.1 per cent to close at 8.459. 6-8-2012 *Pamela.34. http://www. Lun said. The losses echoed those in Asia. That could help to shift money to households from China's hugely profitable government-owned banks.canadianbusiness.S. Congress about what the Fed might do in response to a slowdown in hiring.299.8 per cent at 1.000 jobs created in May was the fewest in a year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.063. deflated after U. Associate press.023. China has rolled out a series of measures to stimulate the economy after growth fell to a nearly three-year low of 8.3 per cent to 6. . Private sector analysts expect this quarter's growth to fall further. the Philippines and New Zealand also fell. 1 economy. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 1. futures augured a lower open on Wall Street.7 per cent to 1. Expectations are rising that Spain's leaders will have to seek an international bailout for banks swaying under the weight of bad real estate loans.60. “World stock markets fall after Fed chief coy about new stimulus for US economy. Aside from an interest rate cut.26. "The economy is slowing much faster than people expected.

making oil look more expensive to foreign buyers.chicagotribune." Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian noted in an essay Monday on Foreign Policy magazine's website.91. no analysis is certain. individuals fearing that their country might leave the eurozone have been removing money from accounts rather than taking a chance that at some point they might be given drachmas instead of euros. Europe remains mired in a debt crisis and growth in the U.” Online. which is used to make gasoline in much of the U. Chicago Tribune Award winning Finance Columnist. Oil prices had risen off recent lows on hopes that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would unveil a plan to stimulate the U. benchmark crude fell $1. and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned Tuesday that without quick action by European leaders and the European Central Bank. “Oil price tumbles on weak economy.93 to $82. Global economic growth is weakening. During the last few weeks.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 8 Growth Core Economy Low Now Growth declining now—reducing oil demand Fahey. 5-24-12 *Gail and China has slowed. That sent the value of the dollar higher.S. fell 2 percent to $97. http://www. Global Economy failing now—Eurozone recession and Greece exit speculation Jarvis. “Eurozone's turmoil threatens global economy.businessweek. 6-8-12 *Jonathan.column] /WFI-MB While the eurozone's debt issues are not new. While many analysts believe Greece would face a depression and Europe's recession would deepen amid worry and banking trouble. stock market strategists and economists have been trying to estimate the impact if Greece defaults.S.” Online. which would lower the value of the dollar and provide investors with cheap money to buy oil and other assets.89 per barrel in midday trading in New York. Bloomberg Businessweek. New concerns focus on potential runs on banks.. Brent crude. although analysts are not sure how extensive the practice has been. economy. That reduces demand for oil to make fuels for shippers and travelers. .0. "Bank runs can easily get out of control. there is disagreement about the extent of infection worldwide. But Bernanke told Congress Thursday that no plan was imminent. Given the lack of precedent. http://www. Similar behavior is suspected in weak countries such as Spain. political instability is growing.S. leaves the eurozone and other countries threaten or take the same route.htm] /WFI-MB The price of oil fell below $83 Friday on the prospect of weak economic growth with no immediate assistance from the U. Europe could go into a severe recession with global ramifications.S Federal Reserve.6654603. recessions are deepening. The last time oil closed below $83 was in early October of 2011. In Greece.

jobless benefits fell slightly in the latest week. durable goods rose less than expected as firms scaled back plans to add machinery and the military ordered fewer aircraft.” Online. It marked the seventh straight month that the index has been below 50. the earliest indicator of China's industrial sector.9 in May from 56. PMI index's average reading in 2011 was 54.3 in April as exports ticked higher although domestic orders showed signs of weakness.7 in May from a final reading of 49. North Carolina.msn. manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index slipped to 53.3 in April. . which also compiles the euro zone PMIs. Markit. comprising the services and manufacturing sectors. released its U. We have seen evidence of softer equipment demand in the first quarter and that softness will likely continue into the second quarter. US summer slowdown? Manufacturing has been a bright spot for the U.msnbc. HSBC's Flash China PMI. Financial information firm Markit's "flash" U. which includes more state-owned firms with better access to credit.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 9 Growth Core Economy Low Now US and global economy declining—Eurozone crisis. manufacturing growth slowed and China's once-booming factories faltered. which likely reflects the deteriorating economic situation in Europe as well as slower growth in China. The figures signal that the sluggish economic conditions of the first quarter are set to continue throughout the first half of the year in China's longest slowdown since the global financial crisis.S. “Storm Clouds Loom Over the global economy. In Europe. The government PMI hit a 13-month high of 53. the Labor Department said on Thursday. and the euro neared a two-year low against the dollar. Meanwhile.9 from April's 46. "Manufacturers remain cautious. first-time applications for U.T76LJNVYvuQ] /WFI-MB The shadows over the global economy darkened this month as the euro zone's private sector contracted. 5-24-12 *Jonathan and Steven. including China.the first gauge for economic activity in the current month is a further signal that internal and external headwinds are still biting into economic momentum. its lowest reading since June 2009 and its ninth month below the 50-mark that divides growth from contraction.S. US momentum slows. "The series of highly disappointing April activity data . a downturn that started in smaller states on the euro zone's periphery is now taking root in the core countries of Germany and France." said Nikolaus Keis at UniCredit. imports. and slow Chinese growth Cable and Johnson." said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson. economists worry about whether demand will hold up this summer . economy. where tepid growth had been the main ballast of support for the euro area economy." said Sam Bullard. with slower export sales sapping momentum. retreated to 48.7. with the Markit index showing the sector has expanded for 32 straight months. senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte." Separate data showed orders for long-lasting U. The U. But as the pace of hiring across the economy has slowed in recent months. Reuters News Service.exports. "The cause seems to lie largely with weak export sales.S. It doesn't quite feel like 2008 yet but the danger is we could get there quicker than we think. index for the first time on Thursday but has been tracking data in the entire sector since late 2009. decreased US manufacturing. China brakes Europe's woes were felt across the Atlantic.S.S. though data earlier this month showed employers in April added the fewest new jobs to their payrolls since October." said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank. "We are very much in a period of weakening global growth. http://www.S.0. "We are seeing slower growth globally. fell to 45. surveys showed on Thursday. The HSBC PMI has provided a contrast to the Chinese government's official PMI. The euro zone composite PMI.S. industrial production and retail sales indicators all fell short of even the most pessimistic forecasts . Wednesday's news that European Union leaders have been advised by senior officials to prepare contingency plans in case Greece quits the single currency also hurt the euro. The data sent German Bund futures to a record high as investors sought relative safety.

which says the probability of a Greek exit from the Eurozone is 75%. a one-time safe bet that has fallen 12% since February. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is reaching an all-time low. "All eyes are looking across the pond and seeing a bit of a meltdown in terms of the European sovereign debt crisis. president and chief investment strategist at Point View Wealth Management in Summit. Europe has so far come up with short-term solutions for these problems. That could in turn slow demand for U. though stocks were able to reverse losses and finish mostly flat. LA Times Staff Writer.latimes.S.S. investors look forward and not backward. N. growth that does not appear sustainable for the remainder of the year. the public is not accepting fiscal austerity.S.story] /WFI-MB But investors are turning their back on positive economic signs.S. Leaders in Germany. countries in Asia and South America could suffer if there is less European demand for their exports. economic signs. an economist with IHS Global Insight. looking nervously at Europe's seemingly never-ending debt troubles and Facebook's flat IPO. positive earnings reports this" said Sara Johnson." said David Dietze. “Nervous investors are looking beyond positive U.” Online. and at some point the Greek situation will come to its head. http://www. indexes sharply lower in another volatile trading session. which has the strongest economy in the Eurozone. staying below 13. wondering whether the global economy is beginning yet another deep dive." European stocks and the euro plunged Wednesday to 2012 lows on growing fears about a potential Greek exit from the Eurozone. Though the U.J. economy is not overly dependent on European consumers. "The economy is in a downward spiral.S.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 10 Growth Core Economy Low Now Global economy failing—will tank US growth as well Semuels.000 for the last two weeks. are finding it politically difficult to continue to extend credit to Greece. Analysts say that long-term solutions are likely to be more painful than anything the continent has recently experienced. . Problems in Europe have plagued the global economic outlook for more than a year.676006. products. The Dow Jones industrial average has slid downhill since May 1. But they also are loath to see the common currency crumble with a Greek exit. companies had. U. Investors won't likely see stocks rally in the near future. But turmoil ahead of Greece's June 17 elections indicates that the country's new leadership may not follow through with agreed-upon austerity measures. and investors are even running from gold. "Although better economic data did not go unnoticed. 5-24-12 *Alana. debt burdens are rising. by and large. Rattled investors then sent major U.

UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 11 Growth Core Sustainability Yes/No .

This corresponds more to what Marx called "simple commodity production. and they also carry out largescale lobbying campaigns to set negotiating parameters for the periodic Earth Summits (Rio de Janeiro 1992. The Business Council for Sustainable Development thus came into being in the run-up to the Rio conference. is to foster growth and accumulation." however. we find the green capitalist agenda expressed partly by the enterprises themselves. it is clear that "green capitalism" seeks to bind together two antagonistic notions. (2) compliance with whatever regulations may be enforced by a government in which they normally have a large voice.9. avoiding toxic chemicals. with all that this entails in terms of curbing greenhouse gases and preserving biodiversity. Accessed online via academic search premier] /WFI-MB At a conceptual level. partly by industry associations.3 For the corporations themselves. The industry associations further amplify the PR aspect. which are advantageous to them in any case. for example." . The aspect of local self-sufficiency is most widely seen in the food-services sector. They have worked extensively to influence the United Nations Development Program. Although green capitalism is an oxymoron. where they strive to establish the common assumptions underlying international agreements. Kyoto 1997. 61. Because of the resulting cost differences (as well as inconveniences of access). treating both the workforce and the natural environment as mere inputs. on the other. it is therefore nonetheless a policy objective. Copenhagen 2009). 2010 [Victor. "green" practice takes essentially three forms: (1) energysaving and other costcutting measures. Just as it seeks to balance marketexpansion with wage-restraint. The green capitalist vision is sometimes associated with small enterprises that can directly implement green criteria by. which have experienced a notable resurgence in recent years in industrialized countries.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 12 Growth Core Growth is Sustainable Capitalism can be green and is sustainable Wallis. Focusing now on the dominant corporate sector. repairing or recycling used products. especially in farmers' markets. and partly by government. and minimizing reliance on long-distance shipment for either supplies or sales. patronage of farmers' markets is likely to remain primarily a political choice until much more is done to offset the artificial competitive edge enjoyed by the food-industrial complex. Agribusiness allows residual space for it. therefore. “Beyond green capitalism. resulting in subsidies. But the scope of such practices is likely to be severely limited by market pressures. declaring in its charter that "economic growth provides the conditions in which protection of the environment can best be achieved. capital must to some extent pursue both at once. playing an especially vital role on the global stage. using renewable energy sources.” Monthly Review. Despite the ultimate incompatibility of these two goals. and (3) most importantly. the demand for a far-reaching ecologically grounded conversion of production and consumption. To be green means to prioritize the health of the ecosphere. by contrast. Johannesburg 2002. capital's more short-sighted advocates and. political clout. public relations (PR). however. and reliance on a typically migrant workforce that receives less than a living wage. so it must seek to balance perpetual growth with preservation of the basic conditions for survival. teaches in the Liberal Arts department at the Berklee College of Music (in Boston) and is the managing editor of Socialism and Democracy. Capital is no stranger to contradiction. but at the same time undercuts it through economies of scale facilitated by technologies of food processing and storage. To promote capitalism. on the one hand. than to capitalist enterprise. Its proponents thus find themselves in an ongoing two-front struggle against.

“Capitalism. The problem with the current form of capitalism. oil. Left and Right.” Sweeten the pie by phasing out all taxes on labor— the payroll tax. manufactured capital and natural capital. Many more will follow if appropriate government policies are adopted. Hawken and the Lovins’ envisage a bright future: Imagine for a moment a world where cities have become peaceful and serene because cars and buses are whisper quiet. Loyola University Chicago. vehicles exhaust only water vapor. Hawken and the Lovins’ argue that these remedies—properly applied— can work.” But they do not see the problem as residing in capitalism itself. highway construction and repair. and parks and greenways have replaced unneeded urban freeways. More recently. e. Natural Capitalism is chock full of examples of the shocking waste pervasive in our current system and of the existing technologies and procedures that could reduce our impact on the environment to a small fraction of what it is now. they say. which increases unemployment. financial capital. and Lovins 1999:5). is to eliminate the perverse incentives now in place. as practiced. can pay part of their mortgage costs by the energy they produce.” All economists. . is its radical mispricing of these factors. “cap and trade” schemes for carbon emissions have been added to the list. even low-income housing units. They distinguish among four kinds of capital. nonsustainable aberration in human development (Hawken. 1). and subsidize— at least initially—the technologies that reduce the negative environmental impact of our production and consumption choices. they argue. 2). 559-580. “Is sustainable capitalism an oxymoron?” PGDT 8. particularly for the poor and those in developing countries. Second step: impose resource and pollution taxes so as to reflect the true costs of “natural capital. fishing and forest industries. which encourages suburban sprawl and the shift away from more efficient modes of transportation. and income taxes have been largely eliminated. Current market prices woefully undervalue—and often do not value at all—the fourth factor: the natural resources and ecological systems “that make life possible and worth living on this planet (Ibid. Living standards for all people have dramatically improved. 2009 *David. subsidies to mining. All agree that there is a role for governments to play in rectifying these defects. The first step. Many of these changes are already underway. Involuntary unemployment no longer exists. and income taxes as well. Such a future will come about if we harness the creative energy of capitalism and let the markets work. recognize that market transactions can involve “externalities”—costs (or benefits) not paid for by the transacting parties. Accessed online via academic search premier] /WFI-MB Hawken and the Lovins’ agree with Kovel that the current model of capitalism is problematic.g. They document the massive subsidies that governments currently provide for ecologically destructive behavior. liberal. etc.” We might even want to go further. is a financially profitable. Lovins. all necessary for production: human capital.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 13 Growth Core Growth is Sustainable Growth is sustainable—Innovation from capitalism and transition to natural capitalism will solve all problems with current growth Schweickart. agricultural subsidies that encourage soil degradation and wasteful use of water. The standard remedies involve taxation (for negative externalities) and subsidies (for positive externalities). Houses. OPEC has ceased to function because the price of oil has fallen to five dollars a barrel. but there are few buyers for it because cheaper and better ways now exist to get the services people once turned to oil to provide. (Ibid. The point is to level the playing field so that more sustainable technologies and more energy-efficient processes can compete fairly with the destructive practices of “industrial capitalism .

But it might not be sustainable in its current form. during the opening chat last week. she said. Green Building Council. chairwoman of the Lebanon Conservation Commission. could drastically reduce. become much more forward thinking and acknowledge new restrictions to keep from gobbling itself whole. 2009 *David. driving shoppers away whenever possible. there are the buildings themselves. They are convinced that technologies already exist that. according to the U. as an economic system and force on the environment.S. “Is Capitalism Sustainable?: Short Answer: Yes. 1-18-2009. Suncook.K. and projected to be Continued on next page… . if sensible governmental policies were put in place.3 billion in 2008. as it relates to so-called "green building. instead of push things down our throats. a Philadelphia-based private equity firm. “Is sustainable capitalism an oxymoron?” PGDT 8. and eventually eliminate." The conference. Going Green More than proper land use. Others would be.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 14 Growth Core Growth is Sustainable Growth is sustainable profitable technologies will solve for waste and eliminate consumption Schweickart. 2009 *Chris. Valley news service. Loyola University Chicago.” Valley news. consultants. a sustainable real estate consultant. The company might realize a higher profit if it were to pack all 289 acres with single-family homes." said Anant Sundaram. "Both of those are much appreciated for their willingness to work with us. In panel discussions. Commercial interests are at stake. Many of these are already profitable. too. 559-580. even during a recession. It is being considered by plenty of people in the Upper Valley every day. founder and CEO of Sustainability Roundtable Inc. The incentive to do something that the community wants has some real economic value. The question is more than a conversation topic for a Tuck-sponsored salon. she said.. but With Better Regulation. The value of green building construction was estimated at $12. Sustainable development. behind the former Wilson Tire building. posed the question of whether capitalism is sustainable. Even if the economic circumstances surrounding the question are not pleasant. it would have to change. L-A Suncook LLC. One is David Clem of Lyme Timber Co. A better approach would be the path two other developers have taken in Lebanon. If it is going to survive as a system of production and exchange. owns 289 acres off the eastern side of Route 120." said Jim Boyle. "With extremely important caveats. The landowner. Knights. Accessed online via academic search premier] /WFI-MB Hawken and the Lovins have much to say about energy." Macnab said of the two projects. in reference to the Upper Valley's most notorious commercial strip. Environmentally sustainable construction is yet another area where profit motives and environmental concerns are becoming increasingly aligned. if properly implemented. which ran Thursday and Friday. Accessed online via academic search premier] /WFI-MB "Capitalism is sustainable in every sense of the term. and a testament to the need for strong zoning laws. who has solicited feedback from residents in redeveloping the former Bailey Brothers building on Route 10. They argue that vast amounts of energy are currently wasted—and that there is much profit to be made in reducing this waste. "It might be better to create something the community accepts and move forward in the near future." Knights said. investment analysts and other corporate leaders considered the question and did their best to offer a way forward. most of the panelists agreed with Sundaram that capitalism could function without destroying the natural world." said Judy Macnab. according to the panelists. fossil fuel consumption—without relying on nuclear power." was the subject of one Friday morning panel at Tuck. but there is also value in avoiding a long fight with the city by doing something the community wants. however. "Growth (in the industry) is unbelievable. Capitalism has regulatory components and profit motives that encourage sustainable growth and use of resources Fleisher. a professor of business administration at Tuck. Poor design and heavy traffic have made West Lebanon's Route 12A an unpleasant place to visit. intends to set aside 223 acres for preservation and develop the rest for offices and a hotel. local operating partner of LA Suncook. "One thing that comes immediately to mind when you talk about the topic is our whole floodplain on 12A is covered with buildings. professors. That development along the Connecticut River is what happens when capitalist impulses are given unchecked access to the natural environment. she said.. Another is a project planned near the crest of Route 120. according to P.

The collapse in energy prices has also affected perceptions about the need to develop alternative fuel. he said. a benchmark for green buildings.000 for a project. There are different certification levels that consider a building's energy efficiency.a benchmark for green investing -." . and Hintz suggested that if capitalism relied so much on rules and law. Pure capitalism. address the twin concerns of climate change and energy supply down 56 percent since June 30. The discussion broke down into a series of qualifying questions. First." Sundaram said." Bonhag said. -." Not every problem is so neatly resolved. as addressing climate change takes a back seat to other pressing concerns. he said. One industrial client in New Hampshire wanted to line its roof with solar panels. No regulation at all? No contracts? Nothing? The question never made it to a vote. Hintz repeated. he was able to find another renewable energy option. emissions and energy consumption -. costing as much as $100.simply as a system of exchanging goods -." Olsen said. One speaker -. he asked the audience of about 60 whether capitalism -. Since it was launched last June.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 15 Growth Core Growth is Sustainable Continued from last page… $60 billion in 2010. "In order to be a green open-market free-for-all. Still." Capitalism wasn't sustainable.S." Impure Capitalism The panelists at Tuck largely agreed.was sustainable in terms of social and environmental needs. it doesn't have to get certified. And new regulations that result from this crisis -. "That money could be better spent. Socially responsible investing has grown in popularity in the past few years. "It becomes meaningless. a professor at Vermont Law School. Carey Callaghan manages the Energy Alternatives Fund. But when Bonhag crunched the numbers. which is watching its bottom line carefully amid the recession. said Paul Olsen. it doesn't always make sense to get certified. "The blind faith of many adherents to capitalism has been put to the test because it's clear capitalism has flaws. As its name suggests." said Michael Dworkin. It requires policing to keep its practitioners' safe from their own worst impulses. "It's still green. His Lebanon-based engineering firm is working on several LEED projects for Southern New Hampshire University. The other panelists wouldn't let him get that far. "We are very much aware that we don't want to spend any more money on the capital side of things that won't be coming back to us in the short term. The Wilderhill New Energy Global Innovation Index -. Sometimes it doesn't make sense. and yet we were able to do this so they can buy power. and Hintz moved on with his talk. It was too expensive. Then. But beyond the marketing opportunities. I was able to negotiate a wind purchase.could play to his advantage. even to establish a clearinghouse where trade can happen. able to regenerate the resources upon which it fed. LEED certification has become attractive to companies that want to advertise sensitivity to the environment. The economic system upon which our modern world relies would be unworkable otherwise. the fund invests in companies that. "I completely disagree." The financial advantages of going green are something Wayne Bonhag considers every day as a principal of Bonhag Associates. But the provocative suggestion of "pure capitalism" never went away. regulation came up again. he believes the need for solar technology and alternative fuel sources will not go away. Dartmouth College has supported a number of sustainable projects and has three buildings on campus certified under the U. "You need to impose some limits on capitalism. in Lebanon. "No regulation?" Sundaram asked. Getting certified is expensive. Green Building Council's LEED program. of Dartmouth's Real Estate office. it is a healthy skepticism of unbridled capitalism and calls for tighter regulation. "In this particular case." Bonhag said.for fuel standards. who was one of the panelists. with no regulation -. the other panelists suggested. the S&P 500 was down 31 percent over the same six months. "I won't accept a definition of capitalism that doesn't have a regulatory component. then the answer to the conference's question was "no. the fund has declined 44 percent.was sustainable. Later. If the crisis has resulted in anything. However." he said. By comparison.Greg Hintz of the consulting company McKinsey & Co. solar just didn't seem to make sense. The financial crisis has hurt short-term prospects for some of his companies. Most raised their hands in agreement. but has been tested in this recession.began his introduction with a couple straw polls. he wondered whether capitalism. use of native materials and other initiatives to reduce its environmental impact. in one way or another. It is a system that needs regulation to function. Callaghan said. in its pure form -. Especially in the financial sector. a mutual fund through American Trust Co.

5 billion ha of cropland. 2011 *Ted. investment. • If the 9 billion people we will have on earth within about 50 years were to use resources at the per capita rate of the rich countries. • The most disturbing argument is to do with the greenhouse problem. nor therefore about the enormous reductions that must be made. as fast as possible and without any limit in sight. It is very likely that in order to stop the carbon content of the atmosphere rising to dangerous levels CO2 emissions will have to be totally eliminated by 2050 (Hansen says 2030). The seriousness of this is extreme. Online.pdf] /WFI-MB The planet is now racing into many massive problems. annual resource production would have to be about 8 times as great as it is now. 2009. given the heavy dependence of our society on liquid fuels. world demand would be about 5 times as great as it is now. Meinschausen et al. if only because it can only capture about 85% of the 50% of emissions that come from stationary sources like power stations. including gallium. What will the situation be if 9 billion people try to use water as we in rich countries do.” Real world economics review. (World Wildlife Fund. helium. • The world’s fisheries are in serious trouble now. The most serious are the destruction of the environment. indium. University of New South Wales Australia. and the breakdown of social cohesion. If 9 billion were to consume oil at the Australian per capita rate. 2009. etc. We are living in ways that it is impossible for all to share. Our society is grossly unsustainable – the levels of consumption. • Recent "Footprint" analysis indicates that it takes 8 ha of productive land to provide water. . “The radical implications of the zero growth economy. We are not just a little beyond sustainable levels of resource consumption -. and there are worries about copper.. What happens if 9 billion people try to eat fish at the rate Australian’s do now? • Several mineral and other resources are likely to be very scarce soon. silver and phosphorous. energy. Yet almost everyone’s supreme goal is to increase material living standards and the GDP and production and consumption.) So if 9 billion people were to live as we do about 72 billion ha of productive land would be needed. But that is about 10 times all the available productive land on the planet. deprivation and conflict all signal the end of the growth economy Trainer. the deprivation of the Third World.paecon.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 16 Growth Core Growth Not Sustainable Major overshoot now—environmental destruction. • Oil and gas are likely to be in decline soon. These kinds of figures make it abundantly clear that rich world material “living standards” are grossly unsustainable. resource depletion. 2009.. • If 9 billion people were to have a North American diet we would need about 4. • Water resources are scarce and dwindling. Few seem to realise the magnitude of the overshoot. issue 57. (Hansen. trade. and largely unavailable in the second half of the century. The following points drive home the magnitude of the overshoot. zinc. but there are only 1. conflict and war. while the greenhouse problem reduces water resources. any one of which could bring about the collapse of civilization before long.4 billion ha of cropland on the planet. There is no element in our suicidal condition that is more important than this mindless obsession with accelerating the main factor causing the condition.we have overshot by a factor of 5 to 10. resource depletion. resource use and ecological impact we have in rich countries like Australia are far beyond levels that could be kept up for long or extended to all people.) Geosequestration can’t enable http://www. most of them overfished and in decline. settlement area and food for one person living in Australia. The main cause of all these problems is over-production and over-consumption – people are trying to live at levels of affluence that are far too high to be sustained or for all to share.

Second. these costs could become so high that systems—both ecological and economic— collapse. 2011 *Valenti. Rockström et al (2009) argue that humanity has already transgressed three of nine critical planetary boundaries. If certain planetary systems—such as climate. it could trigger nonlinear and catastrophic consequences on a global scale (Rokström et al. 2009. Some alternative modes of human development exist (Costanza. natural capital. loss of biodiversity and increased pollution. nature still loses out. 2011 Feb 12(2). Even if capitalism. “Sustainability. This means that nature is subsidizing the capitalist mode of development. Schneider et al. Accessed online via PubMed] /WFIMB However. unlimited human growth—the central tenet of capitalism—and sustainable development are incompatible (Rull. Sustainable practices could therefore aim to minimize the loss of natural capital. and evolution. If human growth continues. . 2010b). 2010). freshwater and biodiversity—change beyond a certain limit. capitalism.2% of species per year. hence. incorporates natural capital into its cost–benefit analysis. 103-106. The first thing to bear in mind is that comprehensive wealth is finite and limited by the carrying capacity of the Earth. For a quantitative estimate of natural costs. the cost during this period has been about 1. the LPI (Living Planet Index) of global diversity has declined by nearly 35% in the past 30 years (WWF. but these also rely on sustainability. the components of comprehensive wealth depend on each other: for example. biodiversity loss and interference with the nitrogen cycle through industrial and agricultural fixation of atmospheric nitrogen. Botanical Institute of Barcelona. Building the road might increase comprehensive wealth but it has a price: natural degradation. the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass and the pollution of waterways and coastal zones. building a road through a forest is done at the expense of the forest. as the dominant economic model. 2009).UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 17 Growth Core Growth Not Sustainable Sustainable growth is impossible—carrying capacity inevitably trumps other resources for generating wealth Rull. submitting natural resources to economic analysis does not guarantee sustainable practices. the carrying capacity of the Earth will nonetheless be reached sooner or later.” The European Molecular Biology Organization Reports. including resource exhaustion. namely climate change. 2008). that is. but if human development continues unabated. ocean acidity.

To save the environment and even economic activity from itself. Botanical Institute of Barcelona. our social and economic systems are too recalcitrant to even acknowledge. and generates larger quantities of waste by-products. The scientific community has been highly sensitive to this alarming development and increased the number of baseline and ecological studies on the impact of humans on the biosphere and proposed various strategies to alleviate the environmental and biotic crisis. No.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 18 Growth Core Growth Not Sustainable Economic growth is not sustainable—exploits the Earth’s environment and biodiversity in an unsustainable manner Accessed online via PubMed] /WFIMB Humans are exploiting the Earth in an unsustainable manner. the assisted migration of species or triage conservation (Mooney. 2. Furthermore. owing to global climate change. capitalism. our deficiency in understanding the relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Online.” The European Molecular Biology Organization Reports. 2003. despite rising incomes. 103-106. it is trumped by environmental limits—transition is key Panayotou. which is accelerating both environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. let alone abandon or reduce their destructive practices. and evolution. One constant in these proposals is a sense of urgency.” Economic Survey of Europe. 2010). as the pace of change seems to outstrip our capacity to react to it. Growth is not sustainable. http://staging. “Economic Growth and the Environment.unece. 2011 [Valenti. 2011 Feb 12(2). the rates of deterioration and extinction will probably increase in the near future. economic growth must cease and the world must make a transition to a steady-state economy. There are various crucial issues that limit said capacity: the incomplete inventory of biodiversity— we still do not know how many and which species live on Earth. Increased extraction of natural resources. growing economic activity (production and consumption) requires larger inputs of energy and material.. Moreover. 2003 [Theodore. 2010). .pdf] /WFI-MB Will the world be able to sustain economic growth indefinitely without running into resource constraints or despoiling the environment beyond repair? What is the relationship between a steady increase in incomes and environmental quality? Are there trade-offs between the goals of achieving high and sustainable rates of economic growth and attaining high standards of environmental quality? For some social and physical scientists such as GeorgescuRoegen and Meadows et al. ecosystem restoration. “Sustainability. Finally. it is argued that degradation of the resource base will eventually put economic activity itself at risk. but maybe most damaging. accumulation of waste and concentration of pollutants will therefore overwhelm the carrying capacity of the biosphere and result in the degradation of environmental quality and a decline in human welfare. and the inertia of the planet itself— even if we immediately stopped using fossil fuels and reduced CO2 emissions. global climate change would continue for decades or even centuries (Matthews & Weaver. This has triggered vivid discussions about the potential risks and benefits of measures such as adaptation and/or mitigation actions.

UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 19 Growth Core Links .

” The report finds that a failure to increase investment in surface transportation over the next ten years will have significant economic implications for the U.” said Rahall. renewed calls for Congress to craft a robust surface transportation bill that provides the investments necessary to tackle the well documented backlog of highway. the Republican proposal ignores another deficit just as critical to America’s future – the infrastructure deficit.” 7-27-12. “While our international competitors are moving forward. undermine our Nation’s long-term economic competitiveness. household incomes falling by more than $7. America can continue to lead the worldwide economy and win the] /WFI-MB Citing a first-ever report released today by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) that found America’s crumbling surface transportation infrastructure will cost the economy more than and jeopardize our economic recovery. Ranking member of House committee of transportation and infrastructure. exports falling by $28 billion. Online. Rahall (D-WV).S. The dramatic cuts proposed to surface transportation programs will destroy over 600. the Republican bill would put American businesses at a disadvantage with companies around the world. “There is no doubt we need to tighten our budgetary belt and learn to live within our means.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 20 Growth Core Transportation K2 Economic Growth Transportation infrastructure investment is key to economic growth Rahall. economy. 2011 *Nick. today’s report provides the cold hard truth that America’s economic recovery and long-term competitiveness will suffer if we continue to under invest in our future. “Report: America’s Crumbling Infrastructure to Cost Economy 877. “While Republicans may hope that if they simply say we are going to “do more with less” enough times it will magically make it so.000.” said Rahall. and transit infrastructure needs. we must not wait any longer.” Republicans on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee earlier this month unveiled a six-year Federal highway and transit reauthorization proposal that represents a 33% reduction from current funding levels. Slashing investments by one third. and U. “The report paints a disturbing picture of how America’s small businesses and middle class family incomes will be affected by our Nation’s deteriorating surface transportation systems. bridge.S. http://democrats. but we must be willing to invest in a transportation system fit for the 21st century just as our competitor nations are investing in their own futures. They are not waiting. Representative Nick J.000 American jobs next year alone.000 jobs. resulting in U. will make the economic impact on America’s middle class even worse than the grim predictions by the economists in this report.” . “By cutting $109 billion in surface transportation investment. U. as Republicans have proposed to do.transportation. “Instead of making robust investments in America’s future and strengthening our position in the worldwide economy. top Democrat on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. but this report is proof positive that the cost of not addressing this impending catastrophe is simply too high.000 High-Skill Jobs. slashing investments in transportation infrastructure is shortsighted and will have a negative impact on the pocketbooks of American families.” said Rahall. businesses paying an added $430 billion in transportation costs.

costing the economy billions of dollars.” 3-20-12. slowing exports and imports. easing traffic on transportation corridors." Freight bottlenecks and other congestion cost about $200 billion a year. "I call this a stealth attack on our economy.usatoday. But interviews with shippers and logistics companies show delays are starting to lengthen along with the moderately growing economy. “USA's creaking infrastructure holds back economy. That will make products more expensive as businesses pay more for shipping or maneuver around roadblocks. Meanwhile. Bridges are overtaxed. It's something that's sneaking up on us. executive director of transportation and infrastructure for the U. or 7% of the economy. the nation's creaking infrastructure will increasingly struggle to handle the load. "The good news is.6% of U. a bipartisan coalition of elected officials. the economy is turning. . 2012 *Paul. or 1. "The bad news is. seaports can't accommodate larger container ships. Effects 'sneaking up' The shortcomings were partly masked during the recession as fewer Americans worked and less freight was shipped. http://www." says Janet Kavinoky. Fourteen locks are expected to fail by 2020. according to a report last year by Building America's Future Educational Fund.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 21 Growth Core Transportation K2 Economic Growth Failed transportation infrastructure tanks the economy—about 7% of annual GDP Davidson. we expect congestion to skyrocket. "It's not like an immediate crisis.S. Online.S. USA Today. The chamber of commerce estimates such costs are as high as $1 trillion annually. economic] /WFI-MB As the economy picks up. and it will cause the nation to lose exports to other countries — both of which are expected to hamper the recovery." The ancient lock-and-dam system is perhaps the most egregious example of aging or congested transportation systems that are being outstripped by demand. vice president of the American Transportation Research Institute." says Dan Murray. Highways are too narrow. Chamber of Commerce.

population grew by 22 percent. Chamber of Commerce’s “Transportation Performance Indexes.S. Donahue said. “In fact. That’s the finding of the U. Online. economy. The index reveals a clear downward trend from 2003 to 2008. quality of service and potential for future growth across all modes of passenger and freight transportation — highway. aviation and intermodal — to show how well the U. 2010 *Staff writer. Chamber of Commerce.S.” he said. international trade and the overall U.” said Thomas J.businessnewsdaily. the performance of the transportation system increased only 6 percent.” released last week. modernizing and expanding our nation’s transportation infrastructure. freight railroad. Right now we’re on an unsustainable path. Donahue. “We must focus on improving the way transportation delivers for business. transportation system is serving the needs of business and the economy.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 22 Growth Core Transportation K2 Economic Growth Transportation infrastructure investment has massive returns on economic growth and GDP Business news daily. The survey combines indicators of supply. removing barriers to maintaining.” The nation’s deteriorating infrastructure is placing a major drag on the economy .S. http://www. president and CEO of the U.S. Over the period of the Our index. a ten-point improvement in the new national transportation could generate 3 percent more growth in the nation’s Gross Domestic Product. but America’s economy travels on its highways. “As our economy recovers. railroads and runways. shows that from now through 2015 there will be a rapid decline in the performance of the system if we continue business as usual. however.S. Transportation Infrastructure is Roadblock to Economic Growth.” 9-27-2010. and driving increased public and private investment.S. while the U. And the pace at which America’s infrastructure is deteriorating is having a measurable impact on the U.S. public transportation. economy . . The index showed a significant decline over the last five years in how the nation’s transportation infrastructure is serving the needs of domestic commerce. demonstrating that the performance of our transportation system is not keeping pace with the demands on that system. passenger travel grew by 39 percent and freight traffic increased by 27 percent.html] /WFI-MB An army may travel on its stomach. the nation’s transportation infrastructure must be prepared to meet the projected growth in freight and population. “U.

UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 23 Growth Core Impacts .

UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 24 Growth Core Growth Good .

6. do not bode well for the rest of Europe. 3. including almost 2 million Turks. an oil state completely dependent on energy sales. The threat of instability is a pressing concern. Forbes. until last year the world's fastest growing economy. As Japan's exports have plummeted by nearly 50%. Spain has absorbed five million immigrants since 1999. China.aei. Meanwhile. A sustained downturn poses grave and possibly immediate threats to Chinese internal stability.K. Equally worrisome is the adoption of more statist economic programs around the globe. is likely. leading to conflict with China's neighbors. The xenophobic labor strikes in the U. workers have already taken to the streets. If that devil's bargain falls apart. economically sound recovery plans suggests that they do not know what to do and are simply hoping for the least disruption. just reported that 20 million migrant laborers lost their jobs. as occurred in the 1980s. A prolonged global downturn. let alone a collapse. sustained economic downturn causes nuclear world war 3 Austin 9 *Michael. are unable to make responsible. Spain's unemployment rate is expected to climb to nearly 20% by the end of 2010. largely from poorer Muslim nations. is haunting the country. Couple that with possible protectionist legislation in the United //wyo-tjc] What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression showed how social and global chaos followed hard on economic collapse. who have increased the labor pool in the past several decades. . http://www. p. Even in the flush times of recent years. Resident scholar at AEI. The result may be a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang. Russia. Hundreds of thousands of temporary employees hired during the first part of this decade are being laid off. would dramatically raise tensions inside these countries. Europe as a whole will face dangerously increasing tensions between native citizens and immigrants.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 25 Growth Core Growth Good – War Eighth.000 labor uprisings a year. in Greece. The mere fact that parliaments across the globe. while nearly 9% of Germany's residents have foreign citizenship. and the specter of violence. along with a continuing threatening posture toward Russia's neighbors. Spanish unions are already protesting the lack of jobs. “The Global Economy Unravels”. then wide-scale repression inside Russia. Even apparently stable societies face increasing risk and the threat of internal or possibly external conflict. The regime in Beijing may be faced with a choice of repressing its own people or diverting their energies outward. from America to Japan. has had to put down riots in its Far East as well as in downtown Moscow. Vladimir Putin's rule has been predicated on squeezing civil liberties while providing economic largesse. and the concurrent decline of trust in free-market systems. one-third of the country's prefectures have passed emergency economic stabilization plans. unresolved ethnic and territorial disputes in all regions of the globe and a loss of confidence that world leaders actually know what they are doing. China faced upward of 70.

which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Moreover. 1995). the likelihood for conflict increases. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. This implied connection between integration. Department of Defense. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. Gelpi (1997). finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. Several notable contributions follow. and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. crisis and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. and Blomberg. Crisis could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. 89) Economic decline has been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. dyadic and national levels. The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. medium and small powers. They write. As such. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. Seperately. Third.S. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. dyadic and national levels. Furthermore. Miller (1999). He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. Hess. recent economic scholarship positively correlated economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson’s (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. (Blomberg & Hess. DeRouen (1995). Goldsmith and Brauer. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”. Ed. Second. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. particularly during periods of economic downturn. P. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic. . Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 26 Growth Core Growth Good – War Broad statistical models prove – unmanaged economic declines lead to war. which in turn returns the favor. ‘Diversionary theory’ suggests that. if the expectations of future trade decline. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon. 1999). Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defense behavior of interdependent states. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflict self-reinforce each other. This observation is not contradictory to other perspectives that link economic interdependence with a decrease in the likelihood of external conflict such as those mentioned in the first paragraph of this chapter. Director of cooperative threat reduction. However. 2004). on the systemic level. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U. Economics of War and Peace: Economic. and increases terrorism Royal ‘10 [Jedediah. p. tanks heg. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. In summary. “Economic Integration. Alternatively. Legal and Political Perspectives. & Weerapana. and thus weak Presidential popularity. 2002. exogenous shocks such as economic crisis could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. Copeland’s (1996. Wang (1996). Hess. sitting governments have increase incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a ‘rally around the flag’ effect. First. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. on a dyadic level. 213-215] Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict . 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that ‘future expectation of trade’ is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviours of states.

A. With most of North America and Western Europe currently experiencing a recession. http://www. In the 19th century France and Great Britain became wealthy through colonialism and the control of foreign resources. to war. This forced other up-and-coming nations (such as Germany) to be more competitive in world trade which led to rivalries and ultimately. "Will this recession lead to World War III?" . will competition for resources and economic rivalries with the Middle East. in History from the University of Maryland. Hopefully the economy gets better before it gets worse and the terrifying possibility of World War III is averted. From there fanatics like Hitler and Mussolini took over Germany and Italy and led them both into World War II. He is a Squad Leader in the Marine Corps Reserve and is currently a graduate student at the University of Baltimore studying law and ethics. . After the Great Depression ruined the economies of Europe in the 1930s. fascist movements arose to seek economic and social control.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 27 Growth Core Growth Good – War Global economic decline increases the risk of World War III and global nuclear war O'Donnell 2009 [Maryland native Sean O'Donnell received a B. However sometimes history repeats itself. or South American cause another world war? Add in nuclear weapons and Islamic fundamentalism and things look even Asia. uwyo//amp] One of the causes of World War I was the economic rivalry that existed between the nations of Europe.examiner. Baltimore Examiner.

In general. few prospects of economic activity lead to elevated terrorist activity. In times of economic crisis.” Defence and Peace Economics. in periods of economic downturn should be accompanied by fewer economic opportunities and participation and thus by more economic dissatisfaction. 2004). Accessed Online via Taylor Francis Online] /WFI-MB Economic theory argues that terrorists are rational individuals which choose their levels of violent activity according to the costs and benefits arising from their actions (cf. there is evidence connecting solid short-run economic conditions with less political violence (cf. Conversely. 22. in times of stronger economic performance individuals simply have more to lose. Blomberg and Hess (2008) also found that higher incomes are a strong deterrence to the genesis of domestic terrorism.. 2008). 2006. Krieger.. Issue 5.. 2007. e. Furthermore. 2008). Time. low opportunity costs of violence that is.. Hess and Weerapana. Freytag et al. while the potential long-run payoffs from violence ñ a redistribution of scarce economic resources which is to be enforced by means of terrorism ñ are comparatively high (cf. and Daniel. To some extent. the opportunity costs of terror also matter.g. studies prove—higher opportunity costs Gries. Considering economic development and terrorism. “Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth. Univ.g..g. . presumably due to higher opportunity costs of conflict. Lai. Higher levels of overall growth should coincide with higher opportunity costs of terror and thus less violence. In other words. e. the evidence indicates that terrorism and economic conditions are linked. Because of terrorists’ presumed rationality. 2004). The Öndings of Collier and Hoeffer (1998) indicate that higher levels of economic development coincide with lower likelihoods of civil war.. several studies found that higher levels of development are obstacles to the production of transnational terrorism (cf. Times of economic success mean. Santos Bravo and Mendes Dias. Sandler and Enders. 493-508.. Intuitively. Here. Muller and Weede. dissidents are more likely to resort to violence as the opportunity costs of terror are low.. 1990. of Economics. Freytag et al. whereas high opportunity costs result in the opposite (cf. 2008). of Paderborn Dept. providing initial evidence that economic success and conflict are diametrically opposed. e.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 28 Growth Core Growth Good – Terrorism 1/2 Economic growth prevents terrorism. 2011 *Thomas. Freytag et al. economic success seems to impede the genesis of terrorism. Vol.. Blomberg. more individual economic opportunities and economic participation. empirical evidence suggests that economic performance and terrorism are linked along the lines discussed before. and Meierreks. inter alia.

as long as war and aggression are backed up by the implicit threat of nuclear arms. however. “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race. Yongin Campus – South Korea (Dennis. Furthermore. .UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 29 Growth Core Growth Good – Terrorism 2/2 Terrorism causes retaliation that guarantees extinction Morgan 9 Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. as thousands. if not all. stated for years that if Israel were to suffer a nuclear attack. unleash the use of nuclear weapons. leading to horrific scenarios of global death and the destruction of much of human civilization while condemning a mutant human remnant. false signal or “lone wolf’ act of sabotage or treason could. and once even just one is used. November. they’ve figured out that the best way to escalate these tensions into nuclear war is to set off a nuclear exchange. keep. likewise. then the likelihood of a rapid escalation of nuclear attacks is quite high while the likelihood of a limited nuclear war is actually less probable since each country would act under the “use them or lose them” strategy and psychology. massive radioactive clouds would drift throughout the Earth in the nuclear fallout. hair-trigger basis the nuclear web rests on. would then retaliate against Russia.” it is likely that any attack would be blamed on the United States” Israeli leaders and Zionist supporters have. would rain upon most of the major cities in the Northern Hemisphere. to a life of unimaginable misery and suffering in a nuclear winter. bringing death or else radiation disease that would be genetically transmitted to future generations in a nuclear winter that could last as long as a 100 years. China would probably be involved as well. these nations will attempt to obtain. which could be exploited as a window of opportunity to “win” the war. it would retaliate with the suicidal “Samson option” against all major Muslim cities in the Middle East.WYO/JF In a remarkable website on nuclear war. In other words. it is only a matter of time before the escalation of violent conflict leads to the actual use of nuclear weapons. “everyone else feels free to do so. No doubt. Moore points out what most terrorists obviously already know about the nuclear tensions between powerful countries. mistaken communication. and inevitably use nuclear weapons.” Science Direct). The bottom line is that as long as large nation states use internal and external war to keep their disparate factions glued together and to satisfy elites’ needs for power and plunder. and the U. As Moore points out. it is very likely that many. once Pandora's Box is opened. And what many people fail to realize is what a precarious. many of them much more powerful than those used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. will be used. Russia would retaliate. it will spread quickly. Because of the Russian “dead hand” system. accessed 9-16-2011. if there is such a remnant. the Israeli Samson option would also include attacks on Russia and even “anti-Semitic” European cities In that case. if not tens of thousands. as it will be the signal for permission for anyone to use them. Moore compares swift nuclear escalation to a room full of people embarrassed to cough. restraint by one power would be interpreted as a weakness by the other. And as long as large nations oppress groups who seek self-determination. of course. and once a weapon is used. “where regional nuclear commanders would be given full powers should Moscow be destroyed. Carol Moore asks the question “Is Nuclear War Inevitable??” In Section . Any accident. Futures. some of those groups will look for any means to fight their oppressors” In other words. all that militant terrorists would have to do is get their hands on one small nuclear bomb and explode it on either Moscow or Israel. for years to come. of nuclear warheads.S. whether from terrorists or a nation state. Afterwards. in a matter of a few minutes. Once one does. taking a savage toll upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well.

22. and Daniel.” Defence and Peace Economics. 493-508. Portugal and Spain. of Economics. but not for France. Issue 5. thus discouraging violent behavior. of Economics. Issue 5. .tic terrorist violence. Related policies may yield additional dividends beyond raising economic status. Italy and the United Kingdom. of Paderborn Dept. 22. Time. advocated by Frey and Luechinger (2003).UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 30 Growth Core Growth Good – Terrorism Economic growth solves terrorism—empirics prove Gries. Greece. Apparently economic success .in impacting domestic terrorism. economic success apparently has contributed to a crowding out of domes.17 Our results also imply that domestic terrorist violence did not affect GDP per capita growth. the results weaken those of the bivariate analysis. Vol.played an important role in shaping terrorist violence in Western Europe after the Second World War. for instance. Portugal and Spain .and the role of the opportunity costs of violence .at least in some countries .” Defence and Peace Economics. Accessed Online via Taylor Francis Online] /WFI-MB We found that (i) all investigated growth and terror series exhibit structural breaks matching major turning points in the countries’ economic and political history. With respect to causality running from growth to terrorism. For Western Europe. Univ. “Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth. and Daniel. in particular when the links between economic growth and domestic terrorist violence are not found to be strong. However. Accessed Online via Taylor Francis Online] /WFI-MB The results of our Hsiao-Granger causality analysis indicate that economic factors . Economic performance robustly sways the terrorists’ calculus only for Germany. 2011 [Thomas. The opportunity costs of violence and the general influence of economic factors on terror should not be disregarded. whereas terrorism causally influences growth only for one country. of Paderborn Dept. (iii) We noted that bivariate causality tests may be prone to inconsistencies. (ii) Policies that aim to increase the efficiency of markets and institutions should also be undertaken because they help to protect economies from the negative effects of terrorism by increasing markets and institutions’ resiliency to terrorist attacks. Vol. we provide support for policies that aim at increasing the opportunity costs of terror as. 493-508. Economic success crowds out terrorism—analysis of many countries proves Gries. We argued that economic performance appears to influence the terrorists’ calculus. factors other than economic performance should also be considered when explaining terrorism dynamics. (ii) In bivariate systems. In general. For some countries in the investigated part of the world. Solid growth in some countries may raise the opportunity costs of terror. Krieger. for instance as individuals found more economic opportunities. Time. “Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth.helped to reduce political violence by raising the opportunity costs of terrorism. while attacked economies are generally resistant to domestic terrorism. and Meierreks.especially in Germany. In the light of our results. economic growth leads terrorist violence in all cases. we argue that (i) policies that aim at improving economic status should also be pursued because they may robustly reduce the propensity towards domestic terrorism at least in some countries. Krieger. Affected economies seem to have been generally successful in dealing with terror risks. as social stability and peace may also be affected. policymakers therefore should not underestimate the role of economic factors . likewise explaining a link from economic performance to domestic terrorism. and Meierreks. Policies that focus on growth and economic development are thus also potentially helpful in scaling down terror risks. so economic growth is not impaired. 2011 *Thomas. Univ. The findings confirmed that economies under attack are successful in adjusting to the threats of terror. Markets and institutions appear to have adjusted effectively to terror risks. so we also performed causality tests in trivariate systems. developed welfare states may provide important institutional channels for disseminating economic success. In general.

These companies will become the face of green industry. yet Congress and political leaders across the country are focused on short-term solutions to our energy crisis.” If the United States does not get serious about alternative energy sources. With government incentives. With its largest and strongest companies investing in new clean energy technology. rather than a one-size-fits-all legal mandate. companies that do not invest in new technologies will simply be at an economic disadvantage when the new industry] /WFI-MB The energy and environmental crises are not news to the American people. rather than regulations that force compliance. In addition.townsquaredelaware. then we risk not only intensifying this crisis. “Red. it uses government incentives to spur innovation in existing and emerging companies that hope to capitalize on economic opportunities opened by government investment and support. This has the potential to create millions of new manufacturing jobs. free market capitalism. Given America’s geographical advantages—thousands of miles of coastline. Republicans in Congress and on the campaign trail alike have called on President Obama to drill for more oil to ease the “pain at the pump. Germany is home to some of the world’s most innovative companies. The energy crisis. such as clean vehicles and fuels. Porsche. Government investment and incentives encourage companies to respond in kind by investing billions in the clean energy industry. Thus. The German government recently provided one billion Euros in incentives to companies developing electromobility technology. open plains—wind and solar energy have the potential to emerge as booming American commodities. because they realize that regulations favoring existing technologies will hamper this emerging market. because it obscures the enormous opportunity for the United States in green energy technology. Anyone can feel the pain of our current dilemma by visiting a local gas station. Government regulation can squash creativity by favoring incumbent technologies. these are giants like BMW and BASF seeing clean technology’s potential in their industries. Talk of government involvement in the free market inevitably degrades into a debate over big government vs. President Obama has tried to make substantial investments in green technology. such as BMW. The German government has chosen not to approach the clean energy market with sweeping regulations. This approach is underscored through Germany’s use of government incentives that encourage companies to innovate. employing millions of American workers. when electromobility becomes the industry standard. German business has seen the writing on the wall. flat. and to Continued on next page… . In the next few decades. Rather. this debate holds us back. or manufacture them in America. these companies have a competitive incentive to invest. climate change. making the free market and the government partners with a mutual goal of innovation. small and medium-sized businesses (Mittelstand) have been able to take advantage of these incentives. When this time comes. will force us to move on to alternative energy sources and more efficient technology. who have accelerated their investments in green energy. In order to promote an American clean energy revolution. which holds seemingly endless potential for America to regain its status as a global manufacturing giant. 2012 *Read. It’s time for the United States to take note. Online. white. and wide. Frankly. we want to import cars from Germany. We need to ask ourselves whether. clean cars developed through electromobility investments will likely replace petroleum-powered cars. Bosch. These aren’t start-up companies taking a long shot risk. which are rushing to take advantage of the government’s green technology incentives. the companies currently investing billions into technology development will profit immensely. Germany is cornering this new market. but this has faced ferocious opposition that would have us maintain our dependence on oil. or a combination of both. NQA. and the green market will explode in Germany. http://www. and green: an American energy strategy.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 31 Growth Core Growth Good – Environment 1/2 Capitalism generates economic incentives and profit that promotes green energy and development that solves environmental crisis Scott.” 1-2-12. with American technology and parts. but also ceding hundreds of billions in profit opportunities (and millions of jobs) to China and Germany. the United States could replicate many of the measures that the German government has implemented. and Deutsche Telekom. creating millions of new jobs for German workers. Germany has shown the world the power of a progressive approach.

steel manufacturers.” CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY LAW REVIEW v. 16. Clean energy has the potential to become a growing.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 32 Growth Core Growth Good – Environment 2/2 Continued no text removed… save the government billions each year in environmental protection and restoration. Law. . The complexity of natural and human systems also means that the effects of these problems are difficult to anticipate. making it difficult for natural systems to adapt. more efficient. Dernbach. utility companies. making us energy-independent. Green investments and incentives will pay huge dividends over time. Fall 1998. Our dependence on oil has involved us with authoritarian and anti-democratic nations around the world. Many civilizations collapsed or were severely weakened because they exhausted or degraded the natural resource base on which they depended. more progressive approach to energy. p. “Sustainable Development as a Framework for National Governance. and other industries to build a new market in the private sector. 49. stable market. The environmental crisis is becoming a drain on our government. Widener University. Major adverse consequences are not inevitable. Ignorance will no longer cut it in the energy debate. the government needs to accelerate investment in green technology and provide greater incentives for public-private partnerships. substantial economic and social inequalities have caused or contributed to many wars and revolutions. with opportunities for American carmakers. and a source of renewed strength for our country. and tarnishing our international credibility. That solves collapse of civilization John C. n76 In addition. but they are likely if these problems are not addressed. If we wish to be the world’s leader for decades to come. The global scale and severity of environmental degradation and poverty are unprecedented in human history. Making the United States energy-independent is vital to our long-term prosperity and security. This can be the centerpiece of America’s comeback. n77 These problems are intensified by the speed at which they have occurred and are worsening. It’s time for us to move on to a better. severely weakening us financially. with billions wasted cleaning up after the irresponsible actions of a few corporations. Associate Professor. and a global leader in fighting climate change. The potential impact of global warming on the transmission of tropical diseases in a time of substantial international travel and commerce is but one example.

(The relation has an "invertedU" shape. 2. http://www. increased pollution is regarded as an acceptable side effect of economic growth. http://staging.pdf] /WFI-MB At the other extreme. people give greater attention to environmental amenities. Vol 268. No. Online.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 33 Growth Core Growth Good – Environment Economic growth is key to the environment—creates demands for goods and services that are less materially intensive and improved environmental quality Panayotou.pdf] /WFI-MB The general proposition that economic growth is good for the environment has been justified by the claim that there exists an empirical relation between per capita income and some measures of environmental quality. “Economic Growth and the Environment. in the earlier stages of economic development. new institutions for the protection of the environment.) One explanation of this finding is that people in poor countries cannot afford to emphasize amenities over material well-being. when a country has attained a sufficiently high standard of living. at higher standards of living environmental protection increases Arrow et al. Stanford University. “Economic Growth and Carrying Capacity. Economic growth solves environmental destruction.unece.” Science. as well as demand for improved environmental quality that leads to the adoption of environmental protection measures. and so forth. K Arrow is in the Department of Economics. after which environmental quality improves. Some went as far as claiming that environmental regulation. demonstrates that in the longer run. 2003. However. It has been observed that as income goes up there is increasing environmental degradation up to a point. This leads to environmental legislation. the surest way to improve your environment is to become rich”. “The strong correlation between incomes. Consequently. are those who argue that the fastest road to environmental improvement is along the path of economic growth: with higher incomes comes increased demand for goods and services that are less material intensive. may actually reduce environmental quality. and the extent to which environmental protection measures are adopted.precaution. As Beckerman puts it. .org/fileadmin/DAM/ead/pub/032/032_c2. 4-28-1995.” Economic Survey of Europe. by reducing economic growth. 2003 [Theodore. 1995 *Kenneth.

it produces less of some pollutants per capita. Supporting this principle is the World Bank’s 1992 report “De¬velopment and the Environment. 36-37. Although economic growth can initially lead to such problems as pollution and waste. the supposed outgrowth of progress. he concludes that in order to ensure environmental safety “we need a sound economy on a global basis. he concludes that in order to ensure the solutions to the problems it produces. growth itself contains to their economic woes. 1998. the resulting prosperity also facilitates the developments of technologies that lead to cleaner air and water. Third. The auto¬mobile became important as a means of redistributing the population from cities to the suburbs.” He claims that the pollution problems of poorer regions such as eastern europe can be traced to their economic woes. we are set off in novel directions. Hence. .” which blatantly states that growth is a powerful antidote to a number of ills plaguing Third World countries.” so the answer to pollution. The report thus contends that eliminating poverty should remain the top goal of world policymakers. crossing boundaries and exploring frontiers we never thought existed. According to Norio Yamamoto. Many English settlements were established by people simply trying to escape religious intolerance. the applications usually exceed such purposes. The fact that progress itself leads to new definitions of human growth also explains the West’s faith in progress. Regardless of the stated purpose of a technology. both tech¬nological and human. The Spanish explored the New World in order to extract natural resources such as gold from the Earth and spread Christianity. ought to be more economic growth. hence. the discovery of the steam engine revolution¬ized industry and the very concept of abundance. p. including the pollution that growth supposedly generates. mainly due to the fact that it can afford technology like catalytic converters and sewage sys¬tems that treat a variety of wastes. None could have guessed that their expression of progress circa 1600 would lead to the birth of an independent nation that became the crucible for personal liberation and technological innovation. SEIZING THE FUTURE. In fact. Montclair University. “We consider any kind of environmental damage to result from mismanagement of the economy. Once we discover new capacities. research director of the Mitsubishi Research Institute. once a nation’s per capita income rises to about $4000 in 1993 dollars. Our accomplishments consis¬tently exceed our wildest dreams.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 34 Growth Core Growth Good – Environment Growth produces technology that can solve pollution and any environmental problems it causes Michael Zey.

http://capitalismmagazine. and could easily be fully privatized. Before them are enormous technical difficulties.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 35 Growth Core Growth Good – Space 1/2 Free market growth key to space exploration—profit incentive boosts innovation and creativity Garmong. profit-making steps–and freed from the unavoidable politicizing of government-controlled science. offered incentives for private groups to break out of the Earth’s atmosphere. The X Prize. If space development is to be transformed from an expensive national bauble whose central purpose is to assert national pride to a practical industry. for years. The free market works to produce whatever there is demand for. quietly. was a writer for the Ayn Rand Institute from 2003 to 2004. Imagine the incentive to a profit-minded business] /Wyo-MB Nor would it be difficult to spur the private exploration of space–it’s been happening. . it were granted the right to any stellar body it reached and exploited. We often hear that the most ambitious projects can only be undertaken by government. but in fact the opposite is true. just as it now does with traditional aircraft. Ph. America must unleash its best minds. the more it demands to be broken into achievable. Online. in philosophy. for instance.” 7-22-2005. which SpaceShipOne won.D. it will only be by unleashing the creative force of free and rational minds. as only the free market can do. But all this private exploration is hobbled by the crucial absence of a system of property rights in space. the solution of which will require even more heroic determination than that which tamed the seas and the continents. 2005 [Robert. Commercial satellite launches are now routine. To solve them. The more ambitious a project is. “Privatize Space Exploration. The creative minds that allowed SpaceShipOne to soar to triumph have made the first private steps toward the stars.

The resulting disruption to the Earth’s environment would be immeasurable by today’s standards. it would penetrate deep into the ground and explode. a total (as of 7 August 2002) of some many thousand near-Earth objects (of which about 1. The shock waves from the collision would have precipitated earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.umn’s temperature would soar to several times that of the sun.500 and 1 in 5. Our armed forces are concerned that an asteroid strike could be interpreted as a nuclear attack. to studies of lunar and other planet impacts. it would allow civilization to expand into the high frontier. Those cause extinction Richard A. A concerted Space Colonization impetus could provide platforms for early warning and could. and huge forest fires. At that speed.pdf. 3.ating everything in its path. Congress held hearings on the phenomenon in 1998.000 are larger that 1 km in diameter) have been catalogued that are potentially hazardous to Earth. This impact was potentially responsible for the decline of several early civilizations. The infrastructure of Space Colonization would serve a similar purpose to the solar system as did that of the United States Interstate Highway system or the flood control and land reclamation in the American West did for the United States development. When the asteroid struck. and the rest soon after. aid in deflection of threatening objects. loghry] You wouldn’t see the asteroid. wrapping the globe in a mantle of fiery debris that would raise surface temperatures by as much as 100 degrees Fahrenheit and shut down photosynthesis for years. potentially. Since 1988. H. inciner. In just the last few months. a 2-mile-wide crater was discovered in Iraq dating from around 2000 to 3000 B. The Moon is a natural laboratory for the study of impact events. A 1-km-diameter meteoroid impact would create a crater 5 miles wide. NEO detection and deflection is a goal that furthers international cooperation in space and Space Colonization. Siegfried (The Boeing Company. New discoveries are accelerating. Many nations can contribute and the multiple dimensions of the challenge would allow participation in many ways—from telescopes for conducting surveys. If either of these events had occurred over a populated area the death toll would have been enormous. to journeys to the comets.aiaa. . loghry] Over the last decade a large mass of evidence has been accumulated indicating that near-Earth-object (NEO) impact events constitute a real hazard to Earth. Lunar and Mars cyclers could be a part of Space Colonization that would provide survey sites and become bases for mining the NEOs as a resource base for space construction. thus triggering retaliation. A similar crater was recently discovered in the North Sea. Integrated Defense Systems) 2003 *“Space Colonization—Benefits for the World” online @ http://www. creating an enormous crater and ejecting burning rocks and dense clouds of soot into the atmosphere.000 depending on the assumptions made. A lunar colony would facilitate such study and could provide a base for defensive action. A hit at Ground Zero in New York would kill millions of people and Manhattan Island (and much of the surrounding area) would disappear. What higher goals could Space Colonization have than in helping to prevent the destruction of human life and to ensure the future of civilization? The odds of an object 1 km in diameter impacting Earth in this century range between 1 in 1. and NASA created a small NEO program. The death toll would depend on the impact point. 7th Circuit) 2004 [Catastrophe: Risk & Response. because it would be hurtling toward you at 15 to 25 miles a second. even though it was several miles in diameter.C. the column of air between the asteroid and the earth’s surface would be compressed with such force that the col. In A quarter of the earth’s human population might be dead within 24 hours of the strike. gargantuan tidal waves. Major events have occurred twice in the last hundred years in remote areas where an object exploded near the Earth’s surface bur did not impact (such as in Russia). p.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 36 Growth Core Growth Good – Space 2/2 Space solves asteroids strikes W. Posner (Senior Lecturer @ the University of Chicago Law School and Judge of the US Court of Appeals.

space efforts. since debates rage as to what globalization means. for much of that time. if globalization is the successor to the cold war paradigm. has influenced the course of space development. must be redefined appropriately. then U. the implications for the future may be both positive and negative. government space activities had fairly well defined roles that were closely associated with the nation’s cold war-era interests.S. From The Societal Impact of Space Flight By Steven Dick and Roger Launius. although its development overlaps the cold war by at least three decades. “The Role of Space Development In Globalization. Although globalization debates primarily address economic. the continuing influence of space development cannot be ignored or viewed in isolation from these issues. in turn. this chapter highlights the role of space development in the emergence of the current era of globalization. and whether the net effect will be good or bad. 2007 [James. particularly those involving exploration and development. NASA historical contributor. . and briefly discusses how space activities are likely to continue to influence this evolving process. social. where it is headed. this is not a simple task.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 37 Growth Core Growth Good – Space Globalization is a driving force of space development Vedda.pdf] /WFI-MB Globalization has been identified as the dominant trend that has replaced the cold war.” Online. U. http://history.S. including the risk of a backlash against space development stemming from anti-globalization movements. and environmental issues.nasa.

instead it will be the profit motif driving any organization in a capitalist society. probably linked to a corporate network and the internet. I can see at least 100 people signing up for it. But. By the 1990s. By the 1960s. the expectation was that every desktop would have its own computer. The force behind this. ü near-instantaneous. Profit motive from capitalism is key to space development and travel Kalinchenko. Even if one trip were to cost $1 million. Online. Today we already have a number of firms like SpaceX that are close to developing a ship capable of carrying a person to space. it eventually became affordable to a broad swath of society. though. and information in the latter half of the twentieth century included the following: ü Jet air transport for passengers and cargo multiplied the speed of long-distance travel.wordpress. and refrigeration allows perishable products to make their way around the world. ü Supertankers and container ships have dramatically reduced the cost of transporting cargo across the the same time that so-called microcomputers were maturing. effectively shrinking travel times from days to hours. “The Role of Space Development In Globalization. ü Space making its contribution to globalization in technology in its various forms started the 1960s. MA in Information Science and Concentration Economics and Univ. In the future.] /WFI-MB While moon colonies are a fairly distant goal. From The Societal Impact of Space Flight By Steven Dick and Roger Launius.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 38 Growth Core Growth Good – Space Economic growth fosters government private partnerships that are key to space development and technology—1960’s prove Vedda. I bet there are going to be a lot of takers (I know I would buy a trip to space if I was a multi-millionaire). however. I think that more casual space travel could become feasible within next decade. . were unimaginable—in the prior era of globalization.telephones became ubiquitous and continents were connected by undersea cables. the fax machine became popular in the mid. 2007 [James. will not be Newt’s administration controlling the White House (hopefully). that I have absolutely no idea how much a space flight would cost to a firm like SpaceX).pdf] /WFI-MB The output of this government partnership with science was the eventual widespread availability of technologies that could only be dreamed of—or in some cases. So my point is that markets can soon become a better tool for space exploration than government funding. 2012 *Dmitry.” Online. SpaceX was mostly funded by the ambitious entrepreneur Elon Musk. goods. I can see space exploration can take a similar evolutionary path as Internet once did where the government provided initial research and development which allowed the private sector to see the market potential of the invention and develop it further . for example. of Michigan. a founder of PayPal. while the ambition started this endeavor. whose passion for space exploration drove him to invest millions of dollars in the firm. http://history. technologies that allowed more rapid movement of people.1980s.” 3-31-2012. the eventual goal of the firm is to be profitable in the long run. The profits from these trips can be invested back into R&D which will make the flights more affordable to the broader public. Once the company is capable of sending a man to space. Musk is planning on selling trips to space to those who can afford it. high-bandwidth communications have evolved so far beyond the telegraph and radio of our great-grandfathers’ day that the benefits are beyond our ability to quantify. http://dmitrykalinchenko. NASA historical contributor. “Capitalism as a driver of space exploration. equally important. It is important to understand that governments played a major role in this by doing the fundamental research that firms like Space X were able to take an advantage of. which would rake in considerable revenue (I have to admit. While the price of these kinds of trips is likely to be very expensive initially.

But it is hardly going to do any damage if it dies the moment it is coughed into the air and exposed to ultraviolet rays.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 39 Growth Core Growth Good – AT – Disease No risk of extinction—Every disease has trade offs Gladwell 95 [Malcom. but the fact that it targets blood cells is what makes it so relatively uninfectious. wholly natural. remaining infectious in the environment for years. a treatment that is neither cure nor vaccine. Malaria is vicious and deadly. Natural selection favors germs of limited lethality. New York Bureau Chief of the Washington Post. but none has come close to destroying the entire human race. Smallpox is extraordinarily durable. There is a biological reason. such as the Black Death. smallpox. HIV would have to get as tough as a cold virus. but its inner workings stay the same. Every infectious agent that has ever plagued humanity has had to adopt a specific strategy. which can live for days on a countertop or a doorknob. Progress has been made in treating ATDS. when people lived in small. The reason is improvements in medical science. its essential rigidity. scattered bands. It kills everyone by infecting the same key blood cells. is what makes it one of the easiest microbes to create a vaccine against. The virus essentially keeps changing its clothes. and now AIDS. despite wider human contacts that make it more difficult to localize an infectious disease. The likelihood of a natural pandemic that would cause the extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past (except in prehistoric times. but every strategy carries a corresponding cost. ln] Then there is the problem of mutation. There have been enormously destructive plagues.” 11:3.8 Paradoxically. that by lying dormant yet infectious in its host for years maximizes its spread. Disease pandemics won’t lead to human extinction Posner 5 – *Richard. they are fitter in an evolutionary sense because their genes are more likely to be spread if the germs do not kill their hosts too quickly. Proquest+hs AIDS illustrates the further point that despite the progress made by modern medicine in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. And there is always a first time. and this makes human counterattack possible. The New Republic. At the same time HIV would have to get more flexible. Yet the fact that Homo sapiens has managed to survive every disease to assail it in the 200. at least if the focus is on extinction events. July 17. but its very durability. even impossible. switching to an entirely different class of cells. protracted. Right now the virus is highly sensitive to changes in temperature and light. To become airborne. the immune system. How can HIV make two contradictory changes at the same time. Yet there is no danger that AIDS will destroy the entire human race.7 Rapidly mutating viruses are difficult to vaccinate against. federal judge Judge 7th Circuit Court of Appeals. aids is almost invariably lethal because its attacks the body at its point of great vulnerability. developing a vaccine or cure for a new (or newly recognized or newly virulent) disease may be difficult. This is an important consideration with respect to AIDS. which means that draining swamps and putting up mosquito netting can all but halt endemic malaria. But the comfort is a small one. but neither a cure nor a vaccine has yet been developed. becoming both less and more flexible? This is what is wrong with the Andromeda Strain argument. which is why there is no vaccine for the common cold and why flu vaccines provide only limited protection.000 years or so of its existence is a source of genuine comfort. which is spread mainly by voluntary intimate contact with infected people. “Catastrophe. it would have to undergo a truly fundamental transformation. The AIDS virus is an example of a lethal virus. may accelerate its spread by reducing the benefit from avoiding becoming infected. the treatments may not work in the long run. but it relies on mosquitoes to spread from one human to the next. . And because the virus's mutation rate is high. Pandemics can still impose enormous losses and resist prevention and cure: the lesson of the AIDS pandemic. Right now HIV mutates in only a limited manner. HIV would have to evolve in such a way as to become more durable. To become airborne. which would have limited the spread of disease). that is. but merely reduces the severity of a disease.

Growth. Probably one reason democracy is taking hold is that living standards are rising. many countries—including the biggest. And with democracy spreading and rising wages giving ever more people a stake in the global economic system. Latin America proves The Economist. he notes. long home to the world’s most unequal societies. today. Nor is there a monolithic trend within countries (see article). only 5 percent does. there might be a case for some fairly radical responses. a study by the Center for International Development and Conflict Management. In fact. much of the recent hand-wringing about widening inequality is based on sloppy thinking. 2005. Despite the popular misconception of worsening developing-world misery. http://www. even adjusting for inflation. it could be expected that war would decline. It has. Thirty years ago 20 percent of the planet lived on $1 or less a day. THE NEW YORK TIMES. Friedman. Begin with the facts about inequality.] /WFI-MB If these arguments are right. the gap between the rich and the poor has actually been narrowing. found that the extent and intensity of combat in the world is only about half what it was 15 years ago. p. Brookings Institution. Visiting Fellow. November 27. policymakers would do better to take on the market distortions that often lie behind the most galling income gaps. putting men and women in a position to demand liberty. Though ''The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth'' may not quite succeed in showing an iron law of growth and liberalization. In Latin America. as governments have boosted the incomes of the poor with fast growth and an overhaul of public spending to improve the social safety-net (but not by raising tax rates for the rich). has already placed mankind on a course toward the elimination of destitution. at the University of Maryland. “The rich and the rest. and check conflict Gregg Easterbrook.” Online. Growth will solve poverty. especially a greater focus on redistribution. . Globally. and which also impede economic growth. Friedman is surely correct when he contends that economic expansion must remain the world's goal. “The Capitalist Manifesto. at least for the next few generations. despite a much larger global population.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 40 Growth Core Growth Good – AT – Poverty Global income gaps declining—growth better approach to poverty. Rather than a sweeping assault on inequality itself. Even taking Iraq into account.” Review of The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth by Benjamin M.economist. as poorer countries are growing faster. the fraction of people in poverty is in steady decline. The old Davos consensus of boosting growth and combating poverty is still a better guide to good policy. 2011 [Staff writer. Brazil—have become a bit more equal. 16.

UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 41 Growth Core Growth Bad .

and North Africa. That is just one example of the way in which individual Continued on next page… . If you go back to the oldest human written histories that we have. I’m sure you’re saying to yourself that. Online. if you look at the history of the Western Hemisphere and the history of Africa in recent times.carnegiecouncil. That led me to resources. “There isn’t anything new about this. so the whole world is not benefiting from this increase in consumption. diamonds and gold. Central and Southwest Asia. and conflict. “Resource wars: the new landscape of global conflict. petroleum use.5 billion people of the year 1900.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 42 Growth Core Growth Bad – War Economic growth causes resource depletion that makes resource conflicts likely Klare and Myers. to the center of international relations.” And this is absolutely true. Mount and International Security Issues in Science and Technology. appears to be driving the continuing conflict and explains why it’s so difficult to reach a negotiated peace settlement. the area between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Amherst. what the Department of Energy calls “the motorization of the world” has produced just an extraordinary increase in demand for petroleum products. But. and the expectation is that number will grow to about 1. This kind of dynamic operates in many other conflicts as well. 2) Consumption patterns. are growing at two or three times the rate of population increase. has been a decisive factor in many of the conflicts that we have seen. Also. where diamonds are a key factor. Director of Merrill House programs on behalf of the Carnegie Council. as the UN has recently indicated. the texts from the ancient Near East. and more recently in the Middle East. I am not going to argue that population is necessarily the most decisive factor in all of this. nonetheless. slaves. South Asia. Foreign Affairs. this kind of increase in population has to be having a tremendous impact on the world resource base. but that the demands on the available supply are growing so rapidly that the existing supply is simply proving inadequate for many populations. You can see this in conflicts such as the one now underway in the DR Congo. Often demagogues and warlords and rising leaders use ethnicity and religion as a tool to arouse public support for whatever their program might be. in both cases you see that the pursuit of valuable resources— gold and silver in South America. but this is one where population will have a big impact. as you’ll see. on average. nobody owned a private motor vehicle. Foreign Policy. Same thing in Angola and Sierra Leone. as well as other periodicals. like diamonds or rare timber. and that this. We see this especially with respect to water and arable land. Currently he is the Five College Professor as well as Director of Peace and World Security Studies. on average. mineral use. world population grew from about 1. and much of the Old Testament in Exodus is about resource conflict in the area of the Jordan River Valley. the mineral and timber of Africa. where. In the 20th century. which is a joint appointment at Hampshire College. 1) Population. https://www. conquest.html/:pf_printable] /WFI-MB I looked for other explanations that would better help me to understand what we were seeing around the world in terms of conflict and the disposition of military forces. 2001 [Michael. a lot of what those ancient texts are about is the struggle to control the irrigated river valleys of Mesopotamia. which is described primarily as an ethnic conflict. The 6 billion people of today. for control of the revenues that certain resources bring. Water use. but our consumption patterns. oil—always has been an important factor in driving outward expansion. So it’s not just population. The same is true of arable land. people have more than they ever did. Today there are about 675 million private motor vehicles in circulation around the world. A century ago. Harper’s. Smith. There are forces and dynamics in the world that will bring these resource issues much more to the fore. have an enormously higher consumption rate than the 1. There has never in human history been population growth on this scale. a contributing editor to Current History. some of the foreign and domestic parties have developed very valuable interests in the exploitation of rare minerals or timber. defense correspondent of The Nation. especially in the Middle East. furs and tobacco and other agricultural products and fish in North America. and a member of the Editorial Board of The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. His articles have appeared in Arms Control Today.1 trillion in the year 2020. and Joanne. Yet we are in a qualitatively different situation today. We see this most especially in the use of petroleum for private vehicles. Moscow has a strong interest in controlling the critical pipelines from the Caspian Sea that go right through Grozny. and the University of Massachusetts.” 3-22-2001. So some of what we see today does bear a resemblance to what we have seen in the past. often underneath all of this is a desire to control valuable sources of resources or their revenues. I’m not saying that ethnicity and culture and religion are not an important factor. colonialism. I have become convinced that the competition for control of resources. But if you look closely. Let me briefly summarize these key phenomena. again. and we expect another 2 billion people to be added between now and the year 2025. It’s not that the water is becoming more scarce. In conflicts even like that in Chechnya. Conflict has always had an important resource dimension. Both of those places remain important centers of resource or water conflict today. There are still as many as a billion people who don’t have enough food and other resources to lead a healthy life. I’ll come back to the water issue.5 billion to 6 billion at the end of the century. more than anything else. This vast expansion in automobile ownership and use. and they are really qualitative new phenomena.

This is producing a collision between rising demand and limited supply that has many consequences. energy. We’re now using about half of it.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 43 Growth Core Growth Bad – War Continued from last page… consumption patterns are affecting the resource base. the Philippines. increased consumption. which has declared its independence from Papua. and increasingly other regions such as Southeast Asia. particularly in the Middle East. China. including military force. New Guinea. Taiwan. He said that gaining access to the Caspian’s oil is a security interest of the United States.S. So globalization. We see this explicitly in U. and so they were prepared to hire a mercenary army to many governments. We see this explicitly with the case of the South China Sea. Mexico. We hop some of this competition will lead to violent conflict in some cases. the United States. These activities. where China has claimed the Spratly and Paracel islands as part of its national territory. and in many of those areas there simply won’t be enough to meet the need. it is rapidly building up its military presence in the Gulf area. It’s very likely that in this current century we’re likely to see large areas of the world that are fully utilizing the available supply of fresh water. and has clashed with Malaysia. are producing an enormous increase in demand for all of these products. And washing machines. And we see that in President Bush’s recent energy policy. Industrialization is spreading from the few centers of the 20th century—in Western Europe. For instance. the protection of resources. Globalization is another aspect of the current scene that has qualitatively changed the environment. but the government view that territorial disputes over resources can be solved by force when other means don’t succeed. come on-line and ease some of the pressure on supply. In the Carter Doctrine of January 23. While the United States has drawn down its military presence in Europe and in other parts of the world. minerals. but China has expressed the view that resources are vital to its security. timber. when the President of Azerbaijan visited the White House. which is claimed by Papua. As industrialization spreads. the human community could put more emphasis on other options—technology. people will be motivated to cooperate more. the United States has been very explicit. A different situation applies to some of the internal conflicts around the world. But I also fear that free flow of petroleum from the Persian Gulf is essential to the national security of the U. which haven’t been widely reported in the U. gradually accreting the permanently or semi-permanently deployed forces in the region. In the case of water resources. for example. and Vietnam over control of those islands. where Israel has said about Jordan and Egypt about the Nile River. the demand for all of our needs—minerals. And the fact is that some of them are quite limited. Water is a renewable resource. but each year there is only so much fresh water. So technology/market forces will certainly mediate some of these pressures. population growth on an unprecedented scale. The supply of oil is not unlimited. But we are beginning to approach limits to the availability of some of these materials. It was cited by President Clinton to undertake a massive increase in American military forces in the Gulf. for example. Central America. The Earth provided us with an extraordinary bounty of the resources we need to survive: water. therefore. invade and reconquer the island. it’s absolutely critical that people in the Nile River Basin or the Jordan Basin. or control over particularly valuable sites of resource revenues such as diamond fields and timber stands. not scarcity per se. and to protect that we’ll use any means necessary. if these patterns that I’m describing continue. in the Gulf of Mexico. a lot of meat and chicken and pork—and all of this puts pressure on water use. I see evidence of the securitization of resource issues—the articulation of the view that certain resources are vital to national security of the states involved and.S. wood. It was the sole source of income for the Papua New Guinea government. In some areas. We expect that the demand for energy in the developing parts of Asia. even as it draws down significantly in other parts of the former Soviet Union. and the use of market forces to try to resolve some of these problems—we will see much more conflict. military training activities—have caused deep alarm in Russia. and he undertook a number of initiatives leading to greater American military involvement in that region. That principle still holds today. and South Korea. Bougainville houses the largest copper mine in the world. and that if necessary they are prepared to use force to protect access to those valuable supplies. because through cooperation they will each be assured of a more secure supply. cooperate in sharing what’s available. or deep offshore in the Atlantic Ocean. something that legitimately can be fought over. Market forces will kick in and have a significant impact on resolving some of this competition. These supplies will. oil in Siberia. the President said that the to see more cooperation in the developing of available resources. dishwashers etc. the 21st century increasingly will be plagued with conflicts over access to resources. A brief example is the struggle over the island of Bougainville. in new technology. petroleum. the private military firm. It hired Executive Outcomes. These pressures will be mediated in various ways. My argument is that . and which has have also been building up its military capabilities in the region. New Guinea. The resource base is not unlimited. because of the resources that are believed to lie underneath the South China Sea. As people’s incomes rise. It was cited by President Reagan to justify the re-flagging of Kuwait tankers during the Iran-Iraq war. This will lead to increasing competition between the users of resources for access. If these trends continue. as people did in the past. to undertake an invasion of Bougainville. We see the same with respect to water. These pressures will intensify at an everincreasing rate. developing Asia being China and Southeast Asia. building new bases. Not only Russia and the United States. India. under the pressure of demand. The rate for India. and in all likelihood we will begin to reach the end of the easy availability of petroleum by the middle of this century. which also views the Caspian as vital to its security. but we are using it at an unprecedented rate. that gaining access to these supplies is vital to their security. with increased pressure on the available supply of resources. Japan—to vast areas of the world: Brazil. In some cases. energy— increases at a very high rate. So with respect to the Gulf. 3) Globalization. arms transfers. President Clinton spoke in the same terms of the Caspian region in 1999. training exercises. Unless. policy on petroleum supplies. that there were always new continents to conquer to find more resources. It is this logic of the securitization of resource issues that worries me most. which emphasizes the strategic importance of Persian Gulf oil to the United States. will more than double over the next twenty-five years. and factions within governments. pre-positioning forces there. view resources as something worth fighting over and are building up military capacities in order to carry out these operations.—building military ties with the military organizations of the new states of the Caspian. The same is true of water. where governments that depend on the revenue from vital resources that are threatened by separatist groups have used whatever military power they have to suppress those challenges. in the Arctic region. they eat a diet that requires more water—fresh vegetables. 1980. and conservation. cooperation. It was cited by President Bush the elder to justify Operation Desert Storm. rising prices for some of these products will lead to an impetus either for the development of new technologies or for the utilization of resources that are currently too expensive to obtain but are within our reach. and Latin America is expected to increase by even higher rates during that period. therefore.S. It’s easy to think.

Contrary to the widely held belief that abundant resources aid economic growth and are thus positive for political stability. This demise of ideology and politics informs. both armed conflicts and chronic political instability in many oil producing regions. 561-584. Accessed online via Science Direct] /WFI-MB Natural resources have played a conspicuous role in the history of armed conflicts. 1999] and [Duffield. such as the African Great Lakes region point to the possible influence of this resource on both vulnerability to and risk of conflict. 2000a]). 2000). a fall in terms of international trade in primary commodities and structural adjustments have led to a readjustment of the strategies of accumulation of many Southern ruling elites towards ‘shadow’ state politics controlling informal economies and privatised companies (Reno. Diaspora remittances. 2000] and [Ross. From competition over wild game to merchant capital and imperialist wars over precious minerals. June 2001. armed conflict is increasingly becoming the means to individual commercial ends: gaining access to valuable resources (Keen. Vol. 2001 *Phillippe. for example. belligerents have become more dependent upon mobilising private sources of support to sustain their military and political activities. School of Geography Mansfield Road Oxford. 1996).2 Arms dumping and the support of corrupt regimes during the Cold War.1 With the sharp drop in foreign assistance to many governments and rebel groups resulting from the end of the Cold War. such as in the Gulf of Guinea. timber or minerals (Jean & Rufin. Although domestic and foreign state budgets continue to support armed conflict expenditures. natural resources have motivated or financed the violent activities of many different types of belligerents (Westing.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 44 Growth Core Growth Bad – War Economic growth causes political instability and resource competition that causes conflict and wars Le Billon. 1998. 1999]). 20. 1999). Berdal & Malone. or the Caspian region. .3 Beyond increasing the risk of armed conflict by financing and motivating conflicts. There is growing concern that whereas resources were once a means of funding and waging armed conflict for states to a political end. the Middle-East. and revenues from trading in commodities such as drugs. as well as the redeployment of state security personnel and networks into private ventures have frequently participated in the growth of such parallel networks and the ‘routinisation’ of criminal practices within states institutions. the liberalisation of international trade.” Political Geography.. or in scarce cropland regions. most notably in Africa and the former Soviet Union ( [Bayart et al. other major sources of funding include criminal proceeds from kidnappings or protection rackets. 1986). 1998). thereby defining a new political economy of war ( [Berdal and Keen. most empirical evidence suggests that countries economically dependent on the export of primary commodities are at a higher risk of political instability and armed conflict ( [Collier. 1998]). diversion of relief aid. the assumption of the UN Security Council that the control and exploitation of natural resources motivates and finances parties responsible for the continuation of conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Issue 5. natural resources also increase the vulnerability of countries to armed conflict by weakening the ability of political institutions to peacefully resolve conflicts. “The political ecology of war: natural resources and armed conflict. Indeed. This notion of a resource curse also underpins much of the resource scarcity-war literature (Homer-Dixon. 1997] and [Le Billon. Similarly.

.royalroads. 2001). University Professor of Development Economics. and thus implicitly an economic motive. 2011 [Frances. Again. resource wars and resentment that cause conflict Barret. one (of four again) being to acquire economic wealth. 2007) (Ziegler. For example. the effects of climate change may erode the social order. http://www. 2003) and declining opportunities for development. Online. 2005). In line with this. and thus an indirect cause of the genocide. and of the failure of disaster management systems (Klare. in common with some findings on civil war.pdf?sequence=1] /WFI-MB Following the end of the cold war many believed the reasons for military conflict would lessen. 2007) (Ramonet. Dadrian defines utilitarian genocide (one of four types) as using mass killings in order to obtain control over economic resources. causing increased violence and threatening human rights. “Dedevelopment. For example. Throughout the world. Fein describes ‘developmental genocide’ (also one of four types) where the perpetrator destroys peoples who stand in their way in relation to the exploitation of resources. and consumption are increasingly leading to conflict (Leahy. 2002) (Hiro. some include a specific economic objective. some have pointed to economic depression as predisposing to genocide (Midlarsky 2005)(Valentino 2000). 2006). in the German holocaust.humansecuritygateway. 2005) (Christian Aid. 2007).” March. Conflicts over resources are fueling wars in many countries (United Nations Development Programme.pdf] /WFI-MB In the manifold classifications of genocide. economic growth. (Valentino 2000)Bae and Ott (2008) argue that mass killings (not specifically genocide) are motivated by the leaders’ expectations of gain. “Economic and Political Causes of Genocidal Violence: A comparison with findings on the causes of civil war. There are risks of growing national and international conflicts over the distribution of resources.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 45 Growth Core Growth Bad – War Economic growth fosters competition in states that cause war and genocide Stewart. Chalk and Jonassohn differentiate motives for genocide. The legitimacy of the role of industrialized countries as global governance actors may be called into question (German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). Their resistance to social injustice may lead to conflict ( EconomicandPoliticalCausesofGenocidalViolence. people are increasingly questioning why they should suffer and do without in order to satisfy the profligate lifestyles of the elites. and rising migration. 2008 *Mark. but militarization has in fact increased. 2007). MA in Environment and /BarrettThesis20081105. Smith also refers to utilitarian genocide . and includes colonial killings and post-colonial developments devastating aboriginal groups. http://dspace. 2002). Economic growth fosters militarization. These motives are akin to the rent-seeking motives argued to underly the motives of many (particularly leaders) in mobilising for civil wars. There is the possibility of an increase in the number of weak and fragile states.” Masters thesis prepared for Royal Roads University. Climate change is likely to threaten international stability and security and global economic development. the depression of the 1920s and 1930s was an important factor behind Hitler’s popularity. As well. The destruction of the environment (Schwartz & Randall. which is motivated by material gain. Online. Working paper for MICROCON: A Micro Level Analysis of Violent Conflict. Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex. There is now potential for endless conflict (Putin.

freshwater depletion. So it is imperative that we critique that as well. have recently indicated that we have crossed. Our disruption of the nitrogen cycle is a major factor in the growth of dead zones in coastal waters. species extinction."2 But climate change is only part of the overall environmental problem. since the time of the dinosaurs.then there is still time to turn things around. is its destruction of the planetary environment. Indeed. led by the Stockholm Resilience Centre. You are undoubtedly aware that global warming threatens the very future of the humanity. 2011 *John Bellamy. Only then will we be in a position to talk realistically about what we need to do to stave off or lessen catastrophe. land cover change." the greatest mass extinction in 65 million years. or are near to crossing. Indeed.human move away from "business as usual" -.climate change. http://www. editor of The Monthly Review and author. and by negatively impacting the oceans it threatens planetary disruption on an equal (perhaps even greater) scale. Ocean acidification is often called the "evil twin" of climate change. nine "planetary boundaries" (defined in terms of sustaining the environmental conditions of the Holocene epoch in which civilization developed over the last 12.zcommunications. species extinction. . threatening us at every turn? Here it is important to grasp that all of these rifts in the planetary system derive from processes associated with our global production] /WFI-MB The Occupy Wall Street movement arose in response to the economic crisis of capitalism. the disruption of the nitrogen-phosphorus cycles. though the remaining time in which to act is rapidly running out. (less certainly) aerosol loading. Scientists. and the disruption of the nitrogen cycle -. Each of these rifts in planetary boundaries constitutes an actual or potential global ecological catastrophe. species extinction. namely capitalism. How are we to cope with all of these global ecological crises/catastrophes. ocean acidification. only this time the mass extinction arises from the actions of one particular species -. If we are prepared to carry out a radical transformation of our system of production -. freshwater usage.3 All of this may seem completely overwhelming. Online. How bad is the environmental crisis? You have all heard about the dangers of climate change due to the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere -.we have already crossed planetary boundaries and are currently experiencing catastrophic effects. James Hansen.trapping more heat on earth. “Capitalism and Environmental Catastrophe. and disruption of the nitrous-phosphorous cycle will all cause extinction Foster. and the way in which the costs of this were imposed on the 99 percent rather than the 1 percent. the leading climatologist in this country. in three cases -. ozone depletion. since it too arises from carbon dioxide emissions. and chemical use. The decreased availability of freshwater globally is emerging as an environmental crisis of horrendous proportions. along with the existence of innumerable other species.1 I would like to start by pointing to the seriousness of our current environmental problem and then turn to the question of how this relates to capitalism." as Naomi Klein has said. We are now in the period of what scientists call the "sixth extinction.000 years): climate change.” 10-31-2011. But "the highest expression of the capitalist threat.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 46 Growth Core Growth Bad – Environment Capitalist economic growth is driving the destruction of the planetary environment— warming. ocean acidification. has gone so far as to say this may be "our last chance to save humanity. ozone depletion.

We have an impoverished and underdeveloped Third World because people in rich countries insist on taking most of the resources. . including those in the Third World that should be being used by Third World people to meet their own needs. Although there may also be other causal factors at work.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 47 Growth Core Growth Bad – Environment Growth causes unsustainable environmental destruction and resource depletion that causes war Trainer. the Third World problem.pdf] /WFI-MB This “limits to growth” analysis is crucial if one is to understand the nature of the environmental problem. resource depletion and armed conflict in the world. Online. And how likely is it that we will ever have peace in the world if resources are very scarce and all cannot use them at the rate a few do now.paecon. issue 57. 2011 *Ted. http://www. University of New South Wales “The radical implications of the zero growth economy. you will need arms if you want to continue to take far more than your fair share. yet all insist on getting richer and richer all the time without limit? If you insist on remaining affluent then you should arm yourselves heavily.” Real world economics review. For instance. all these problems are directly and primarily due to the fact that there is far too much producing and consuming going on. we have an environment problem because far too many resources are being drawn out of nature and far too many wastes dumped back in. at rates technical advance cannot cut to sustainable levels.

and the argument that there is no possibility of solving the environment problem unless we shift to a zero-growth economy. green movements and political parties have almost totally ignored the issue. The failure of the Greens Despite the overwhelming case against growth. But they can’t fuel a consumer society for all. 2010. (For instance Geoff Mosley’s recent book details the continued refusal over many years of the Australian Conservation Foundation to deal with it. Mosley. so that its damage to the environment will be reduced somewhat.and the politicians are at fault for not implementing the available solutions. they would quickly lose their subscribers. Green people are among those who make the strongest claims that technology can solve the problems eliminating any need to face up to system change.. “The radical implications of the zero growth economy. and virtually no green campaigning is directed at moving towards a kind of society that does not inevitably and increasingly destroy the environment. issue 57..pdf] /WFI-MB This does not mean we should forget about renewables. 2011 *Ted. They are the sources we should be moving to full dependence on as soon as possible. and without which we in rich countries could not have such high material living standards. The original German Green Party saw the need for vast and radical system change away from consumer capitalist society. http://www. .net/PAEReview/issue57/Trainer57. However. Almost none of their attention is given to the topic of growth.” Real world economics review. University of New South Wales Australia. now almost all green effort goes into merely trying to reform that society.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 48 Growth Core Growth Bad – Environment Shifting away from growth is the only way to solve environmental problems—green reform movements will inevitably fail Trainer. The wider context The gross unsustainability of consumer-capitalist society is only the first of two crushing arguments against its acceptability. Online. The reason for this failure/refusal is of course that if they spoke up against the pursuit of growth and affluence in a society that is fiercely obsessed with these goals. The other is to do with the extreme and brutal injustice built into the global economy.) Similarly Green political parties will not discuss economic or population growth and instead focus on reforms which never challenge growth and affluence.paecon. They have to be part of the “simpler way sketched below.

edu/openbook. http://dujs. Just as modern modes of transportation allow more people and products to travel around the world at a faster the airways to the transcontinental movement of infectious disease vectors. they also open first known incidence of this disease in North America. This movement has the potential to change dramatically the factors involved in the transmission of infectious disease. Pg. which does not have a proof-reading mechanism. and Leslie Pray.php?record_id=11588&page=21] /WFI-MB The increasing cross-border and cross-continental movements of people. more people are on the move than ever before. Specifically. 22 May 2009. many political scientists and demographers already refer to the twenty-first century as the “century of migration” (Leaning. The simultaneous occurrence of antigenic drift (point mutations that lead to new strains) and antigenic shift (the inter-species transfer of disease) in the influenza virus could produce a new version of influenza for which scientists may not immediately find a cure. HIV’s use of reverse transcriptase. That mosquitoes can cross the ocean by riding in airplane wheel wells is a commonly cited example of this phenomenon and is one of several hypotheses proposed to explain the introduction of West Nile virus into New York City in 1999. Since influenza can spread quickly. the world will likely continue to witness rapidly growing numbers of migrants in search of employment or a better quality of life. Luckily. but rather through the weakening of the immune system. Editors of Forum on Microbial Threats. The unprecedented volume and speed of human mobility are perhaps the most conspicuous manifestations of the present era of globalization. controversial evidence suggests that global warming. Migrant populations are among the most vulnerable to emerging and reemerging infectious diseases and have been implicated as a key causal factor in the global spread of such diseases. Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that only 25 mutations were required to convert the original viral strain — which could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10). for more easily transmitted viruses such as influenza. “The Impact of Globalization on Infectious Disease Emergence and Control: Exploring the Consequences and Opportunities. Stanley Lemon.Forum on Microbial Threats. the lack of an error-correction mechanism in HIV DNA polymerase (8). and 2. While vaccines have been developed for the plague and some other infectious diseases. .edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-ofour-fate) A pandemic will kill off all humans. It is true that scientists have been unable thus far to find a sustainable cure for AIDS. Beyond such transport of disease vectors. From international tourists to war-displaced refugees. this lag time could potentially lead to a “global influenza pandemic. there are certain characteristics of HIV that make it a poor candidate for a large-scale global infection: HIV can lie dormant in the human body for years without manifesting itself. new viral strains are constantly emerging — a process that maintains the possibility of a pandemic-facilitated human extinction. such as malaria and dengue.nap. humans have indeed fallen victim to viruses. as the global population continues to grow and economic and social disparities between rich and poor countries intensify. 21-22. though. food. have enormous potential to affect the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. In the past.” Produced for the Board on Global Health.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 49 Growth Core Growth Bad – Disease Globalization and growth spread disease through expanded travel and exposure— Knobler et al. The most recent scare of this variety came in 1918 when bird flu managed to kill over 50 million people around the world in what is sometimes referred to as the Spanish flu pandemic. Online. They are also traveling faster and are regularly visiting what used to be very remote parts of the world. Adel Mahmoud. and decision-making power that characterize globalization. Some surveyed students mentioned AIDS as a potential pandemic-causing virus. over the next 15 years. http://www. those addressing the need for improved surveillance of mobile populations are reported in Chapter 2. This chapter summarizes the workshop presentations and discussions on these various aspects of globalization and their implications for the prevention and control of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. Extinction Yu 9—Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science (Victoria. two factors account for the virus’s abnormally high mutation rate: 1.” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (9). the evolution of new strains could prove far more consequential. However. mainly due to HIV’s rapid and constant evolution. Of particular concern. Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate. most notably multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (TB). 2006 [Stacey. the pace. In fact. Perhaps the best-known case was the bubonic plague that killed up to one third of the European population in the mid-14th century (7). capital. together with global demographic trends. Workshop presentations and discussions addressing this increased human mobility and its effect on infectious disease transmission are summarized here. has caused or is causing changes in vector distributions worldwide and affecting the incidence rates of various tropical infectious diseases. much of which is generated by human activities. and AIDS itself does not kill directly. commodities. 2002).dartmouth. Workshop Summary . vectors.


50 Growth Core

Growth Bad – Disease
Growth causes disease spread through expansion of food-borne illnesses and largescale projects Knobler et al, 2006
*Stacey, Adel Mahmoud, Stanley Lemon, and Leslie Pray, Editors of Forum on Microbial Threats, “The Impact of Globalization on Infectious Disease Emergence and Control: Exploring the Consequences and Opportunities, Workshop Summary - Forum on Microbial Threats.” Produced for the Board on Global Health, Pg. 21-22, Online,] /WFI-MB Consumers in much of the developed world expect constant access to a wide variety of high-quality, safe food products, regardless of the season or the product’s geographic origin. This demand for a global food market and the resulting transnational movement of food have important implications for foodborne infectious diseases. The global transport of food also raises concerns about the risk of the emergence of antibiotic resistance in humans. Food-producing animals are often given antibiotic drugs for important therapeutic, disease prevention, or production reasons; however, these drugs can cause microbes to become resistant to drugs used to treat human illness. Although the movement of people and products may be the most conspicuous manifestation of the present era of globalization, the phenomenon’s main driving force is the global expansion of capitalism and the free-market system. Thus, it is useful to examine how the global flow of capital affects emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. The most direct effect results from the financing of environmental projects, such as dams and other water or land development efforts, that alter local vector ecologies and increase the potential for human exposure to infectious diseases. The movement of capital is often accompanied by movements or shifts in decision-making power, another manifestation of globalization with implications for infectious disease transmission.


51 Growth Core

Growth Bad – Disease
Growth causes disease spread and mutation—SARS proves Hamburg 8—FDA Commissioner. Senior Scientist Nuclear Threat Initiative. MD (Margaret, Germs Go
Global: Why Emerging Infectious Diseases Are a Threat to America, Globalization, the worldwide movement toward economic, financial, trade, and communications integration, has impacted public health significantly. Technology and economic interdependence allow diseases to spread globally at rapid speeds. Experts believe that the increase in international travel and commerce, including the increasingly global nature of food handling, processing, and sales contribute to the spread of emerging infectious diseases. 47 Increased global trade has also brought more and more people into contact with zoonosis -diseases that originated in animals before jumping to humans. For example, in 2003, the monkey pox
virus entered the U.S. through imported Gambian giant rats sold in the nation’s under-regulated exotic pet trade. The rats infected pet prairie dogs, which passed the virus along to humans. 48 International smuggling of birds, brought into the U.S. without undergoing inspection and/or quarantine, is of particular concern to public health experts who worry that it may be a pathway for the H5N1 “bird flu” virus to enter the country. Lower

cost and efficient means of international transportation allow people to travel to more remote places and potential exposure to more infectious diseases. And the close proximity of passengers on passenger planes, trains, and cruise ships over the course of many hours puts people at risk for higher levels of exposure. If a person contracts a disease abroad, their symptoms may not emerge until they return home, having exposed others to the infection during their travels. In addition, planes and ships can themselves become breeding grounds for infectious diseases. The 2002-2003 SARS outbreak spread quickly around the globe due to international travel. SARS is
caused by a new strain of corona virus, the same family of viruses that frequently cause the common cold. This contagious and sometimes fatal respiratory illness first appeared in China in November 2002. Within 6 weeks, SARS had spread worldwide, transmitted around the globe by unsuspecting travelers. According to CDC, 8,098 people were infected and 774 died of the disease. 49 SARS represented the first severe, newly emergent infectious disease of the 21st century. 50 It illustrated

just how quickly infection can spread in a highly

mobile and interconnected world. SARS was contained and controlled because public health authorities in the communities most
affected mounted a rapid and effective response. SARS also demonstrated the economic consequences of an emerging infectious disease in closely interdependent and highly mobile world. Apart from the direct costs of intensive medical care and disease control interventions, SARS caused widespread social disruption and economic losses. Schools, hospitals, and some borders were closed and thousands of people were placed in quarantine. International travel to affected areas fell sharply by 50 - 70 percent. Hotel occupancy dropped by more than 60 percent. Businesses, particularly in tourism-related areas, failed. According to a study by Morgan Stanley, the Asia-Pacific region’s economy lost nearly $40 billion due to SARS. 51 The World Bank found that the East Asian region’s GDP fell by 2 percent in the second quarter of 2003. 52 Toronto experienced a 13.4 percent drop in tourism in 2003. 53


52 Growth Core

Growth Bad – Poverty 1/2
Capitalism generates poverty—profit motive for elites, outsourcing, lay-offs, and highpriced goods Wolff, 2011
[Richard, Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of Massachusetts, Amherst where he taught economics from 1973 to 2008. He is currently a Visiting Professor in the Graduate Program in International Affairs of the New School University, New York City, “Capitalism and Poverty.” 10-11-2011, Online,] /WFI-MB Deepening poverty has multiple causes, but the capitalist economic system is major among them . First, capitalism's periodic crises always increase poverty, and the current crisis is no exception. More precisely, how capitalist corporations operate, in or out of crisis, regularly reproduces poverty. At the top of every corporation, its major shareholders (15-20 or fewer) own controlling blocs of shares. They select a board of directors -- usually 15-20 individuals -- who run the corporation. These two tiny groups make all the key decisions: what, how, and where to produce and what to do with the profits. Poverty is one result of this capitalist type of enterprise organization . For example, corporate decisions generally aim to lower the number of workers or their wages or both. They automate, export (outsource) jobs, and replace higher-paid workers by recruiting domestic and foreign substitutes willing to work for less. These normal corporate actions generate rising poverty as the other side of rising profits. When poverty and its miseries "remain always with us," workers tend to accept what employers dish out to avoid losing jobs and falling into poverty. Another major corporate goal is to control politics. Wherever all citizens can vote, workers' interests might prevail over those of directors and shareholders in elections. To prevent that, corporations devote portions of their revenues to finance politicians, parties, mass media, and "think tanks." Their goal is to "shape public opinion" and control what government does. They do not want Washington's crisis-driven budget deficits and national debts to be overcome by big tax increases
on corporations and the rich. Instead public discussion and politicians' actions are kept focused chiefly on cutting social programs for the majority.

Corporate goals include providing high and rising salaries, stock options, and bonuses to top executives and rising dividends and share prices to shareholders. The less paid to the workers who actually produce what corporations sell, the more corporate revenue goes to satisfy directors, top managers, and major shareholders. Corporations also raise profits regularly by increasing prices and/or cutting production costs (often by compromising output quality). Higher priced and poorer-quality goods are sold mostly to working people. This too pushes them toward poverty just like lower wages and benefits and government service cuts. Over the years, government interventions like Social Security, Medicare, minimum wage laws, regulations, etc. never sufficed to eradicate poverty. They often helped the poor, but they never ended poverty. The same applies to charities aiding the poor. Poverty always remained. Now capitalism's crisis worsens it again. Something more than government interventions or charity is required to end poverty.

S. in fact accelerating. thermonuclear war. two to three times as many people die from poverty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide of the Jews over a six-year period. throughout the world. This is. the Vietnam war (possibly two million. or genocide. Violence: Reflections on our deadliest epidemic. on the average.000 deaths per year from armed conflict. Comparing this frequency of deaths from structural violence to the frequency of those caused by major military and political violence.R (232 million). and even a hypothetical nuclear exchange between the U. the equivalent of an ongoing.S. which continues year after year. every fifteen years. the Indonesian massacre of 1965-1966 (perhaps 575. unending. in effect. as many people die because of relative poverty as would be killed in a nuclear war that caused 232 million deaths.000 deaths). such as World War II (an estimated 49 million military and civilian deaths. and every single year. 1954. it was clear that even war cannot begin to compare with structural violence. . 1935-1945). including those caused by genocide--or about eight million per year. p 195-196] The 14 to 18 million deaths a year cause by structural violence compare with about 100.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 53 Growth Core Growth Bad – Poverty 2/2 Poverty produces structural violence that is the equivalent of an ongoing nuclear war Gilligan 2000 [James. and the U. In other word. Department of Psychiatry Harvard Medical School. perpetrated on the weak and poor every year of every decade.1973).S.

19 as noted earlier. . its evolution will be rocky. . among the negative aspects of globalization that have been cited are: ü exposure of workers and firms to unwelcome competition from abroad. in fact.pdf] /WFI-MB This globalized economy will be a net contributor to increased political stability in the world in 2015. political instability. although its reach and benefits will not be universal. the process of globalization is more http://history.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 54 Growth Core Growth Bad – Poverty Globalization and growth foster economic inequality and economic divides that breed poverty. . there is a risk that the opposite may occur. ü competition between locations for mobile capital that may lead to a “race to the bottom” in environmental standards. ü potential worsening of inequality and injustice and erosion of democratic is natural to want to see oneself as part of the solution rather than part of the problem. and cultural alienation. in contrast to the industrial revolution. and there is no shortage of critics around the world who are eager to point this out. as consumers and producers. supporters of globalization believe it will allow more and more individuals. NASA historical contributor. But general acceptance of this view is not automatic. they will force the United States and other developed countries to remain focused on “old-world” challenges while concentrating on the implications of “new-world” technologies at the same time.” Online. From The Societal Impact of Space Flight By Steven Dick and Roger Launius. globalization has a dark side. to enjoy the benefits of economic liberalization. and religious extremism. ideological. marked by chronic financial volatility and a widening economic divide . “The Role of Space Development In Globalization. competition . and groups feeling left behind will face deepening economic stagnation. conflict and extremism Vedda. ethnic. and increased risk that companies will relocate their production elsewhere. along with the violence that often accompanies it.and innovation. countries. they will foster political. regions. ü diffidence to the outside world or fear that a cherished way of life will disappear as a result of cultural standardization. so the space community undoubtedly would like to view itself as an essential tool of globalization for redressing deficiencies and providing solutions for global problems. 2007 [James.

Finally. in many countries. slow growth itself can mean widening income inequality. since high growth and tight labor markets are what increase the bargaining power of the poor. 1-4-2002. Second. leads to slow growth. Online. small and newly opened economies in the global free market are vulnerable to investment fads and speculative pressures from foreign investors--factors that result in instability and often overwhelm the putative benefits of greater openness. the hands-off approach to global development encourages foreign capital to seek regions and countries that offer the cheapest production costs--so even lowincome countries must worry that some other. Macroeconomist at the Economic Policy Institute. lived on the equivalent of 72 cents a day or less. In 1980 the world's poorest 10 percent. The number of poor people rose from 1987 to 1998. The same number of people had 79 cents per day in 1990 and 78 cents in 1999. the IMF and the World Bank often commend austerity as an economic cure-all in order to reassure foreign investors of a sound fiscal and business climate--but austerity. (Economists estimate that poverty increases by 2 percent for every 1 percent of decline in growth.] /WFI-MB Yet the actual experience since 1980 contradicts almost every one of these claims. or 400 million people.) Third. Why has the laissez-faire approach worsened both world growth and world income distribution? First. The income of the world's poorest did not even keep up with inflation. .UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 55 Growth Core Growth Bad – Poverty Free market capitalist growth generates massive poverty—empirics prove Weller. All of these upheavals disproportionately harm the poorest. the free-trade/free-capital formula has led to slower growth and more vulnerability for poor countries--and to greater income disparity among individuals. the share of poor people increased (in 1998 close to half the population in many parts of the world were considered poor). In 1980 median income in the richest 10 percent of countries was 77 times greater than in the poorest 10 percent. http://prospect. not surprisingly. “Free Markets and Poverty. by 1999 that gap had grown to 122 times. Progress in poverty reduction has been limited and geographically isolated. 2002 [Christian.” The American Prospect. even more desperate workforce will do the same work for a lower wage.

No. V 85. . What may be the most familiar causal chain in modern historiography links the great depression to the rise of fascism and the outbreak of World War II. rarely) to an outbreak of violence. 2K (Faculty of Administration. University of Ottawa.. After studying ninety-three episodes of economic crisis in twenty-two countries in Latin America and Asia in the years since the Second World War they concluded that: Much of the conventional wisdom about the political impact of economic crises may be wrong… The severity of economic crisis. Miller. in turn. Not all the countries affected by the Great Depression were taken over by fascist regimes. 4. in democratic states. In fact. 277) The question may be formulated. there would not appear to be any merit in this hypothesis. the ruling elites responded to crisis by increasing repression (thereby using one form of violence to abort another). leads to this deplorable denouement. undertaken by Minxin Pei and Ariel Adesnik of the According to a study Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. as some scholars do. Interdisciplinary Science Reviews. In the cases of dictatorships and semidemocracies. fabricating an enemy and setting in train the process leading to war.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 56 Growth Core Growth Bad – AT – Decline Causes War Economic downturns don’t cause wars. Nazi Germany started the war In Europe only after its economy had recovered. 25. No measured in terms of inflation and negative growth – bore no relationship to the collapse of regimes… (or. This exogenous factor might act as a catalyst for a violent reaction on the part of the people or on the part of the political leadership who would then possibly be tempted to seek a diversion by finding or. Laurence A. Economic decline doesn’t cause war Ferguson 2006 [Niall. The next war of the world. others were the cause rather than the consequences of economic catastrophe. Do wars spring from popular reaction to a sudden economic crisis that exacerbates poverty and growing disparities in wealth and incomes? Perhaps one could argue. that it is some dramatic event or sequence of such events leading to the exacerbation of poverty that. Vol. no general relationship between economics and conflict is discernible for the century as a whole. But the simple story leaves too much out. pg. and some sever economic crises were not followed by war. nor did all such regimes start wars of aggression. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford. Foreign Affairs. if need be. Some wars came after periods of growth.] Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed.

He says humanity is widely distributed enough that some scattered population pockets might survive the explosion. those are pretty much nil in the foreseeable future. We could try to deflect it using spacecraft. the only claimed fatality is that of a dog. the odds of being killed by a meteorite are beyond remote . loghry] Meteorites killed the dinosaurs and have nearly wiped out humanity in multiple Hollywood blockbusters. no. because when these things hit. supposedly vaporised by a meteorite on 28 June 1911 . No risk of extinction from asteroids Robin McKie & (Guardian staff) Ted Nield (Geologist & Author) 1/2/2011 *“Ted Nield: We won't go the way of the dinosaurs” online @ http://www. It would be like turning an oven to broil except it would happen to the entire planet. When asked to imagine a 10-kilometer-wide asteroid headed towards Earth. loghry] So is it really time to love a meteorite? Why not? No one has ever been killed by one. uninhabitable. In fact. and he says that was almost certainly just a story. Why We Should Stop Worrying and Learn to Love the Meteorite. you could attach little ion engines to the meteorite to divert it over several orbits around the sun. Indeed. So. You would be talking about rendering large areas. possibly a hemisphere. they produce plasma and incredible temperatures. though this would probably be very silly. Hollywood pictures suggest we could use a big bomb. instead of just one. Nield doesn't downplay the destructive capabilities of these meteorites. we have been monitoring nearEarth asteroids for many years and haven't found one yet that stands the remotest chance of hitting us in the near future. but have these deadly space rocks actually gotten a bad rap? One geologist argues we should actually be thankful for all meteorites have done for us. No Extinction—population distribution and tech solve Alasdair Wilkins (io9 staff) 1/3/2011 *“Why a massive meteorite strike could be the best thing to happen to us” online @ http://io9. however. meteorites don't mean the end of humanity. It would only take a very slight deviation. solutions. And. Within the blast It's not much of a death list. . loghry] That said. Ted Nield. As for our chances of being hit by something like the one that helped kill the dinosaurs.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 57 Growth Core Growth Bad – AT – Space/Asteroids No impact—chance of asteroid strike is zero Alasdair Wilkins (io9 staff) 1/3/2011 *“Why a massive meteorite strike could be the best thing to happen to us” online @ http://io9. No humans killed and one disputed dead all of human history. Your risk of being killed by one is about the same as dying by a firework. although he does dismiss the survival plan put forward by the acclaimed physicists Michael Bay and Bruce Willis: It is possible to envisage dealing with an incoming meteorite if we saw it far in advance. from the village of Nakhla in Egypt. heading our way. nothing would survive. the only claimed meteorite fatality was a dog in Egypt in 1911. while meteorites can cause an extinction event every few hundred million years. However. We would break the meteorite into parts and would then have several lethal objects. he paints a grim picture: It would be travelling at 30-40km per second when it hit the top of the atmosphere and would immediately start to vaporise. He points out that. explains in an interview with the British newspaper The Guardian why meteorites have been benefited Earth throughout its long history. on any sort of timescale we should be worried about. Earth's chances of being hit by a meteorite are next to this story is almost certainly made the author of the new book Incoming!: or. Not really. There are. although they'd then be looking at tens of thousands of years spent scraping by on a charred planet.

the threat presented within the United States by al Qaeda greatly exaggerated. William Langewiesche spends a great deal of time and effort assessing the process by means of which a terrorist group could come up with a bomb. Thus. and taxing all to defend the United States against an enemy that scarcely exists. spying on many. that making a bomb is an extraordinarily difficult task. and inefficient" (2004. In his recent book.000 -about the same chance of being killed by a comet or a meteor. one that he however acknowledges would be "large." Allison nonetheless opines that a dedicated terrorist group. if you look carefully and practically at this process. could get around all the problems in time and eventually steal. and to the fact that neither al-Qaeda nor any other group has come close to demonstrating the means to overcome them. unreliable. unsafe. Although it remains heretical to say so. or procure a "crude" bomb or device.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 58 Growth Core Growth Bad – AT – Terrorism No risk of nuclear terror – technical and logistical hurdles like access to materials are impossible to overcome Mueller 1/1/2008 [John Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies. unpredictable. it is worth remembering that the total number of people killed since 9/11 by al Qaeda or al Qaeda-like operatives outside of Afghanistan and Iraq is not much higher than the number who drown in bathtubs in the United States in a single year. inconveniencing most. very unlikely. but unlikely. the evidence so far suggests that fears of the omnipotent terrorist -. you don't have anything. January 15. Atomic Bazaar: The Rise of the Nuclear Poor. a set of counterterrorism and nuclear experts interviewed in 2004 by Dafna Linzer for the Washington Post pointed to the "enormous technical and logistical obstacles confronting would-be nuclear terrorists. . 85 n. the likelihood that an individual American would number among the dead would be two hundredths of a percent (or one in 5. of any appreciable amount of weapons-grade HEU [highly enriched uranium] disappearing. September/October 2005. Terror threat overblown—more likely to be killed by comet John Mueller. Ohio State University. I mean. If you don't have that. 61).reminiscent of those inspired by images of the 20-foot-tall Japanese after Pearl Harbor or the 20-foot-tall Communists at various points in the Cold War (particularly after Sputnik) -. But while keeping such potential dangers in mind. And so far there is no public case. 2+. And that's the first step. 139. cumbersome.000). at least known. Pluta and Zimmerman 2006. 97. you see that it is an enormous undertaking full of risks for the would-be terrorists. p.may have been overblown. University of Chicago. 5. The massive and expensive homeland security apparatus erected since 9/11 may be persecuting some. Mershon Center Professor of Political Science Department of Political Science." Also: The best information is that no one has gotten anywhere near this. and that the lifetime chance of an American being killed by international terrorism is about one in 80. “Is There Still a Terrorist Threat?” FOREIGN AFFAIRS v. produce. THE ATOMIC TERRORIST: ASSESSING THE LIKELIHOOD Prepared for presentation at the Program on International Security Policy. however. Unlike Allison. 2008 ] It is essential to note. Even if there were a 9/11-scale attack every three months for the next five years. see also Bunn and Wier 2006. It's a possibility. he concludes that it "remains very. al-Qaeda in particular.

UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 59 Growth Core Misc .

What we learn will shape our future and the future of the complex. P. This collapse will cause millions of people to suffer and die throughout the world. in the end. But we can be assured that on that basis of past history of the collapse of regional civilizations such as the Mayan and the Roman Empires. We can learn alot from our present global crisis. Syracuse U. human societies and civilizations will continue to exist and develop a smaller. barring global nuclear war. The paradox of global economic development is that although it creates massive wealth and power for First World Elites. such civilizations will be violent. . and often cruel. interconnected web of life on Earth." ed. less so than our current global industrial civilization. regional scale . it also creates massive poverty and suffering for Third World people and societies. M Dobkowski & I Wllimann. On the Edge of Society. Indeed. Unfortunately. which is abusing the entire planet and threatening the mass death and suffering of all its peoples and the living biological fabric of life on earth.. ensure the survival of future human societies. but. but it should paradoxically. Although this future seems hopeless and heartless. Sewall Program @ CU Boulder.____) In conclusion. The failure of global development to end this suffering and destruction will bring about us collapse. millions will die in the wars and economic and political conflicts created by the accelerating collapse of global industrial civilization. Instructor. the collapse of global industrial civilization is necessary for the future long-term survival of human beings. the only solution to the growing political and economic chaos caused by the collapse of global industrial civilization is to encourage the uncoupling of nations and regions from the global industrial economy. corrupt. "Global Industrial Civilization: The Necessary Collapse. Press. Yes.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 60 Growth Core Transition Solves Quick collapse is better means we are able to survive the transition—the sooner the better LEWIS 2002 (Chris H. it is not.

on the fringes of the economics profession. It will be argued firstly that this is not possible.. plan and organise to produce that stable quantity of the basic things we need to enable a high quality of life for all. http://www. decide. i. Such economies can only work well if control is in the hands of all citizens. selfsufficient local economies using local resources to produce what local people need. What is required is much greater social change than Western society has undergone in several hundred years. viable communities will have to be mostly small. 2011 *Ted. the critics of growth typically proceed as if it is the only or the primary or the sufficient thing that has to be fixed. a growth is eliminated then radically different ways of carrying out many fundamental processes will have to be found. University of New South Wales Australia. which have developed over hundreds of years. Only when this is grasped is it possible to understand that the social changes required must be huge.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 61 Growth Core Transition Solves Transition solves the negative impacts of growth—radical change is key Trainer. radical and far reaching. in which we discuss. Although it is now gaining more attention. issue 57. it is a growth-economy. via participatory-democracy exercised through whole town assemblies. but it will be argued that the major global problems facing us cannot be solved unless several fundamental systems and structures within consumer-capitalist society are radically remade. system in which most of the core structures and processes involve growth. Online. state or federal governments. “The radical implications of the zero growth economy.e. .net/PAEReview/issue57/Trainer57. Given that the mainstream. The initial claim being argued here (and detailed in Trainer 2010b) is that consumer-capitalist society cannot be reformed or fixed.pdf] /WFI-MB The argument in this paper is that the implications of a steady-state economy have not been understood at all well. In the coming conditions of intense resource scarcity. If the limits analysis is valid we have only decades to make the enormous transitions. This vision would enable most of the firms and farms to be privately owned or community cooperatives. because this is not an economy which has growth.” Real world economics review. Online. If Its try or die—only a complete abandonment of growth will ensure we can survive the transition to small scale economies Trainer. The magnitude and seriousness of the global resource and environmental problem is not generally appreciated. values and taken for granted ideas. Although the case against the wisdom of pursuing growth and affluence has in my opinion been overwhelmingly convincing for decades. it has to be largely scrapped and remade along quite different lines.paecon. University of New South Wales Australia. Secondly. http://www. shows no sign of ever attending to these issues. it has been almost totally ignored. Before offering support for these claims it is important to sketch the general “limits to growth” situation confronting us. it is difficult to maintain belief that we have the wit or the will to save ourselves. “The radical implications of the zero growth economy. especially by its advocates. and would involve little role for councils. Most proceed as if we can and should eliminate the growth element of the present economy while leaving the rest more or less as it is.” Real world economics] /WFI-MB If we must abandon growth and greatly reduce production and consumption then there is no alternative but to develop an economy which is basically under social control. issue 57. It logically entails the termination of several fundamental structures and processes. unfortunately there is little recognition of just how profoundly radical the notion of zero-growth is. 2011 *Ted. resolutely led by the economics profession.

to move away from a system directed at profits. and accumulation. . corporate spending aimed at persuading people to buy things they don't want or need). This would mean reducing or eliminating unnecessary and wasteful consumption and reordering society -. Think of marketing (i. Think of all the wasted resources associated with our financial system. ad] /WFI-MB The other approach is to demand changes in society itself. let us make our goal one of ecological and social revolution -.e.standpoint. It would require democratic ecological and social planning. This could only occur in conjunction with a move towards substantive equality. “Capitalism and Environmental Catastrophe. and that alienates and impoverishes the lives of the bottom 99 percent. Here we would need to depend on organizing our local communities but also on creating a global community defense of humanity and the planet. while degrading the environment. production. Think of military spending. We need an ecological and social revolution.even a long-term economic -. It therefore coincides with the classical objectives of socialism.” 10-31-2011. After all. http://www. running in reality at $1 trillion a year in the United States. It is not primarily a technological problem. It is this kind of waste that generates the huge profits for the top 1 percent of income earners. Just think of all the useless things we produce and that we are encouraged to buy and then throw away almost the moment we have bought them.e. economic growth. We have all the technologies necessary to do this.from commodity production and consumption as its primary goal. because the goal here would no longer be the impossible one of expanding our exploitation of the earth beyond all physical and biological limits. Such a shift would make possible the reduction in carbon emissions we need. editor of The Monthly Review and author. i.zcommunications. with Wall Street economics. but the World Occupy Movement would have been declared impossible only a month ago. Think of the bizarre. which has reached $1 trillion a year in this country alone. an ecological -. most of what the U.. market-related costs that go into the production of nearly all goods) is sheer waste from a social. and toward a sustainable steady-state economy. to sustainable human development. 2011 *John Bellamy. economy produces in the form of commodities (including the unnecessary. Rather the goal would be to promote human community and community with the earth. Online. You may say that this is impossible.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 62 Growth Core Transition Solves Only a transition away from growth can solve environmental and social destruction Foster.8 What we need therefore is to change our economic culture.where the rich countries no longer imperialistically exploit the poor countries of the world. If we are going to struggle. plastic packaging that all too often dwarfs the goods themselves.S.

But. it is far from clear how far China's political. because it seems to presume that there is a viable replacement waiting in the wings. with its fierce competition among export firms. and widespread government intervention. would seem to have everything to recommend it except sustainability. economic. Marxism and heavyhanded socialism have disastrous records by comparison. in the broad sweep of history. China's Darwinian capitalism. 2012 *Kenneth. Continental European capitalism. and financial structures will continue to transform themselves. long vacation periods. the only serious alternatives to today's dominant AngloAmerican paradigm are other forms of capitalism. all current forms of capitalism are ultimately transitional. all forms of capitalism are ultimately transitional. . is widely touted as the inevitable heir to Western capitalism. 26. It is a curious question. China is still encumbered by the usual social. someday the struggle for subsistence will no longer be a primary imperative. Perhaps the real point is that. In any case. Professor of Economic and Public Policy at Harvard University. a weak social-safety net. and whether China will eventually morph into capitalism's new exemplar. which combines generous health and social benefits with reasonable working hours. economic. and relatively equal income distributions.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 63 Growth Core Transition Fails Transition will inevitably fail—there are no alternatives to capitalism to fill in Rogoff. I am often asked if the recent global financial crisis marks the beginning of the end of modem capitalism.1. Yet China's economic system is continually evolving. if only because of China's huge size and consistent outsize growth rate. and financial vulnerabilities of a rapidly growing lower-income country. Accessed online via Proquest] /WFI-MB In the broad sweep of history. “Is modern capitalism sustainable?” The International Economic. The truth of the matter is that. 60-61. and contemporary capitalism's numerous flaws may loom larger. lifting billions of ordinary people out of abject poverty. Indeed. Modern-day capitalism has had an extraordinary run since the start of the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago. early retirement. as industrialization and technological progress spread to Asia (and now to Africa). for now at least.

we could well experience a revolutionary movement similar to that of Germany in the 1930. Professor. 1992. School of the Environment. on the other hand. while establishment-minded fascists probably have links with the American military. would be ineffective. 170-171. notably lacks the kind of power necessary to emerge victorious from a real revolution. The extreme left. Yet I believe that there are good reasons to believe that the victors in such a struggle would be radicals not of the left but rather of the right. wherein lies the greatest concentration of destructive power this planet knows. for all its intellectual strength. While an explosive socioeconomic crisis in the near term is hardly likely the possibility certainly cannot be dismissed. Should a crisis strike so savagely as to splinter the American center and its political institutions. Capitalism is an inherently unstable economic system. An outbreak of jingoistic economic nationalism throughout the world. p. could quickly result in virtual economic collapse. Populist right-wing paramilitary groups are well armed and well trained. the core marxist contingent. but today’s college professors and their graduate students. Duke University.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 64 Growth Core Transition Fails Collapse fails—causes right wing fascist states that are worse Martin Lewis. A few old street radicals may still retain their militant ethos. . GREEN DELUSIONS. Under such circumstances we could indeed enter an epoch of revolutionary social turmoil. and periodic crises of some mag¬intude are inevitable. moreover. would present a very real threat. The radical right.

in order to achieve the goal of socialism. capitalism would remain completely in control of the social order and all socialist schemes would be reduced to pipe dreams. encouraging regional conflagrations and setting the stage for eventual global holocaust. with it. Professor of Political Science – University of Delhi.UMKC SDI 12 (DBS Lab) 65 Growth Core Transition Fails Rejection of capitalism causes massive transition wars Harris 3 (Lee. and this means. Policy Review. Therefore. since if capitalism produces no widespread misery. a full-fledged civil war not just within one society. simply because. a greater sense of insecurity among the major centres of power -. and it is utopian to think that any ever will. Without this catastrophic upheaval. Extinction Kothari 82 (Rajni.html) This is the immiserization thesis of Marx. but across the globe. as Marx insisted.hoover. the monopoly of force. No capitalist society has ever willingly liquidated itself. “The Intellectual Origins of America-Bashing”. And it is central to revolutionary Marxism. the capitalist class could not be realistically expected to relinquish control of the state apparatus and.and hence to a further tightening of the structures of domination and domestic repression – producing in their wake an intensification of the old arms race and militarization of regimes. who will dream of struggling to overthrow it? Only genuine misery on the part of the workers would be sufficient to overturn the whole apparatus of the capitalist state. 571) Attempts at global economic reform could also lead to a world racked by increasing turbulence. Marx was absolutely correct. Toward a Just Social Order. Analyst – Hoover Institution and Author of The Suicide of Reason. p. January. nothing short of a complete revolution would do. in point of fact. In this. . then it also produces no fatal internal contradiction: If everyone is getting better off through capitalism.

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful