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$50
$16
$24
1200
300
Fixed Cost=
$30,000
# of units=
Sales @
Less Variable costs @
Contribution=
Less Fixed Costs
Profit=
624
$50 =
$19.22 =
$31,200
$11,993
$19,207
$30,000
-$10,793
=624 x 50
=624 x 19.22
=$31,200 - $11,993
=$19,207 - $30,000
Simulation trials
Trial #
# of
units=
1151
Sales
$57,550
Variable
cost per
unit
17.05
Variable
cost
Contribution
( Sales Variable
Costs)
$19,625
$37,925
Profit =
Contribution Fixed cost of $
30,000
$7,925
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
789
1394
965
1111
1377
1156
1012
1327
1129
1429
1331
1257
1009
1213
943
1279
1363
1339
1056
1183
1721
1099
731
1294
1547
729
1506
857
1002
840
881
1017
1127
1385
760
1616
1316
1521
979
604
$39,450
$69,700
$48,250
$55,550
$68,850
$57,800
$50,600
$66,350
$56,450
$71,450
$66,550
$62,850
$50,450
$60,650
$47,150
$63,950
$68,150
$66,950
$52,800
$59,150
$86,050
$54,950
$36,550
$64,700
$77,350
$36,450
$75,300
$42,850
$50,100
$42,000
$44,050
$50,850
$56,350
$69,250
$38,000
$80,800
$65,800
$76,050
$48,950
$30,200
16.58
20.25
19.18
16.44
18.41
16.15
22.31
17.15
20.31
19.48
19.7
17.26
19.85
22.71
19.2
22.14
16.23
22.85
18.47
23.57
18.84
23.85
21.9
22.96
18.34
16.59
18.73
16.89
17.47
21.87
23.12
17.3
17.74
22.75
16.47
21.67
22.84
20.47
21.98
21.21
$13,082
$28,229
$18,509
$18,265
$25,351
$18,669
$22,578
$22,758
$22,930
$27,837
$26,221
$21,696
$20,029
$27,547
$18,106
$28,317
$22,121
$30,596
$19,504
$27,883
$32,424
$26,211
$16,009
$29,710
$28,372
$12,094
$28,207
$14,475
$17,505
$18,371
$20,369
$17,594
$19,993
$31,509
$12,517
$35,019
$30,057
$31,135
$21,518
$12,811
$26,368
$41,471
$29,741
$37,285
$43,499
$39,131
$28,022
$43,592
$33,520
$43,613
$40,329
$41,154
$30,421
$33,103
$29,044
$35,633
$46,029
$36,354
$33,296
$31,267
$53,626
$28,739
$20,541
$34,990
$48,978
$24,356
$47,093
$28,375
$32,595
$23,629
$23,681
$33,256
$36,357
$37,741
$25,483
$45,781
$35,743
$44,915
$27,432
$17,389
-$3,632
$11,471
-$259
$7,285
$13,499
$9,131
-$1,978
$13,592
$3,520
$13,613
$10,329
$11,154
$421
$3,103
-$956
$5,633
$16,029
$6,354
$3,296
$1,267
$23,626
-$1,261
-$9,459
$4,990
$18,978
-$5,644
$17,093
-$1,625
$2,595
-$6,371
-$6,319
$3,256
$6,357
$7,741
-$4,517
$15,781
$5,743
$14,915
-$2,568
-$12,611
$6,852 =AVERAGE(H45:H544)
Number of losses=
Total number of trials=
Therefore, probability of loss=
119 =COUNTIF(H45:H544,"<0")
500
0.2380 =119/500
=$31,200 - $11,993
=$19,207 - $30,000
Note:
=AVERAGE(H45:H544)
oduct?