Energy Geopolitics

Michael J. Economides

©2008

Petroleum Production Engineering • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century
Oil almost $150, then far below $100… headlines rule … “crisis”
OPEC has little excess capacity “behind the valve”, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq
IEA (Nov. 2008) 9.1% decline in oil production

China has gone berserk

Saudi Arabia world regulator $60 to $200 in 12 to 18 months
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

GOM Headlines Rule …No Peak Oil

1977 Alaska
8.4 Billion Barrels

2007 GOM
22-45 Billion Barrels

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Saudi Arabian “Twilight”

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

The Color Of Oil
Russian Spanish Korean

NOW IN 5 LANGUAGES

Available at Amazon.com or from Round Oak Publishing Company (1) 281-395-4783.

Chinese

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP

Source: DOE/EIA, 2008, Skov, 2000, DOC/BEA 2001, National Academy of Engineering, 1990

4

Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources
Total Energy
MBDOE

Other Energy
MBDOE

Wind & Solar
MBDOE

400 350 300 250
Other 1.7
Growth Rate 1980-2003, % Growth Rate 2003-2030, %

60
Wind & Solar

3.0

1.6

1.7 1.4

50

2.5

40
Biomass, MSW 1.5 1.2

2.0

200
2.7 Coal 2.2 Gas

30

1.5

Wind 11.1

150
1.5

20
5.9 Nuclear 0.8

1.0

100 50 0 80 90

2.2

10
1.0 Oil 1.5

0.5
Solar 9.5

0
00 10 20 30

2.2

Hydro

2.1

0.0 30 80 90 00

80

90

00

10

20

10

20

30

US Energy Consumption
140.00 120.00
Quadrillion BT
Other Hydroelectric Heating and Nuclear Electric Power Coal Natural Gas Oil Transportation Oil Products

100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 1950

2.8

3.4

8.1 23 23 27 13

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

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National Transportation Energy Perspective
140 120
Quadrillion BTU
Other Conventional Hydroelectric Power Nuclear Power Coal Natural Gas Imported Oil Oil Transportation Oil Products

100 80 60 40 20 0

Imported Oil Biofuels
1960
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

1950

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

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The New Energy Economy
Carbon content: Increasingly: • Clean • Energy intensive • Technologically sophisticated • Distributed

• • • • •

Wood (1800s) Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydrogen
(envisioned)

High Medium Low (Zero)

````````

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Golfing for Hydrogen

Bovine Brain Power > Mad Car Disease?

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The Ethanol Scam

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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There are no alternatives to hydrocarbon energy sources in the foreseeable future

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Gwyneth Paltrow

gy er t En e r xp E
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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TIME, AUGUST 26, 2002

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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What Climate Change?
• Three points:
– Highly politicized…. What to do about it? Can anything be done? At what cost? – Confusion (at times deliberate) between “global warming” and man-made effects – Preposterous: “science all in”. My offer: $10,000 for ONE peer-reviewed paper showing causality between CO2 and increased temperature. None exists
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Petroleum Production Engineering • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Group Income Statement
For the year ended 31 December 2005

$ million

2007 Total revenues

2006

2005

284,000 266,000 254,000

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Price of Oil and ExxonMobil Stock

Energy Geopolitics
The Axis of Energy Militants

•Iran •Venezuela •Russia under Putin •The quagmire that is Iraq •China

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Russia under Putin
•Bright spot in oil is gone •Re-Sovietization •Corruption •Total control of press •Investment climate has cooled down •Production is bound to decline

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Gazprom’s New Imperium

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Transparency International CPI, 2007
RANK 1 Denmark Finland New Zealand SCORE 9.4

4

Singapore

Sweden

9.3

6
. . .

Iceland
. . .

9.2
. . .

20

United States

7.2

…and the Energy Militants
RANK 131 143 SCORE

Iran
Indonesia

2.5 2.3

Russia
Nigeria

147 162 179

2.2 2.0 Somalia 1.4

Venezuela
Myanmar

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Georgia War

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

ChLights On? ina Keep the
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Can

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Will China Break Through?

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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China Oil Consumption
• In the last decade China’s oil consumption increased by 3.5 million barrels per day, the largest in the world by far. • If China were to use the same per capita consumption, as the US, it would require 80 million barrels per day (more than the entire world use.)
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

China and Russia
• Energy will be China’s choke point • Has become recently very assertive, if not belligerent.
– Sudan, Nigeria – Canada – Venezuela

• China’s energy future passes through Russia….
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Russia and China

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Russia, China and Japan

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Another view of oil prices

Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

www.energytribune.com
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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