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Scatter Plots, Correlation, and Basic Credibility Weighting The following table contains five data sets. Use the information in the table to complete problems 1 through 6: Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Data Set 1 50 40 70 60 95 80 105 100 130 Data Set 2 50 20 30 40 80 60 40 80 100 Data Set 3 50 30 20 80 10 50 40 20 130 Data Set 4 110 105 90 85 70 65 50 45 30 Data Set 5 80 10 20 50 5 10 30 10 100

For each of the five data sets, use Excel to complete each of the following steps: 1. Graph the data in a scatter plot (year is the x-value; data is the y-value). 2. Insert the fitted line and use the line to develop a tentative projection for 2010. 3. Make a subjective assessment of how well the data fits the line. 4. Find the median and the linear trended value (TREND) for the data points. 5. Find the correlation coefficient for the data points. 6. Use the absolute value of the correlation coefficient and the median as anchor to determine a credibility weighted forecast for 2010. Trended Values, Weighted Average Values, and Credibility Weighted Forecasts The following table contains five data sets. Use the information in the table to complete problems 7 through 10: Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Data Set 1 29 32 35 37 50 42 43 44 18 47 49 Data Set 2 50 46 40 32 38 40 30 20 15 25 10 Data Set 3 10 20 40 50 25 80 60 55 25 90 100 Data Set 4 80 30 40 50 20 60 90 120 45 25 70 Data Set 5 150 140 130 125 100 140 80 65 50 45 40

58. 8. use Excel to complete each of the following steps: 11. identify any data points which are outliers: 15. 40. 13. 15. Identifying Outliers – Standard Deviation and IQR Rules The following table contains three data sets. and the value for Z (Z = the square of the correlation coefficient). 20. 50. 22. 10. the correlation coefficient.For each of the five data sets. Calculate the linear trended value (TREND). Use the 80% standard deviation rule to identify data points which are outliers. 16 17. 44. Calculate the linear weighted value. 60. Use Excel to calculate the mean and the standard deviation. 30. 34. 12. Manually arrange the following data points in order. Use the values derived in the three previous problems and the credibility weighting formula to determine a forecast for 2012. 44. Use the reconfigured data sets to forecast the value for 2012 using the full credibility weighted technique. 56. 30. 9. 10. calculate the IQR. 46. 95. 12. Use the information in the table to complete problems 11 through 14: Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Data Set 1 12 17 22 100 32 37 42 47 52 90 62 Data Set 2 25 30 35 40 45 150 55 60 5 75 85 Data Set 3 10 500 50 40 30 60 20 80 50 120 350 For each of the three data sets. 41. use the 130% IQR rule to identify the range for outliers. Calculate the median. 90. the exponential weighted value. 36 16. 18. 8. use Excel to complete each of the following steps: 7. 88. 52. 8. 40. 70 . 14. Exclude the outliers and reconfigure the data with the outliers excluded. and the average weighted value.

. He has 3. 1. forecast his touchdown passes for the current season under each of the following assumptions (assume there are 16 games in a football season): j. 20. He has 2. He has 30 RBI after 20 games b. forecast the next data point in the sequence simply by looking at the pattern in the remaining data: 18. . 3. He has 8 TD passes after 7 games l. . 23. 8. He has 75 RBI after 80 games e. . He has 14 TD passes after 10 games m. Forecasting Incomplete Years Using the Expected Value Method 21.400 passing yards after 12 games 23. . Ryan Howard has a career average of 140 runs batted in (RBI) per season. 60. forecast his passing yards for the current season under each of the following assumptions (assume there are 16 games in a football season): f.200 passing yards per season. He has 50 RBI after 60 games d. . 32. . 9 3 8. 9. 14. He has 40 RBI after 40 games c. He has 100 RBI after 100 games 22. 2. 11.800 passing yards after 6 games h. 23. 81. 56. . 5.Use the 130% IQR rule to identify the outlier range and eliminate outliers. 50. 16. Peyton Manning has a career average of 4. . Drew Brees has a career average of 25 touchdown passes (TD) per season. 43. . forecast his RBI for the current season under each of the following assumptions (assume there are 160 games in a baseball season): a. He has 0 TD passes after 3 games k. 19. 11. 100. He has 22 TD passes after 13 games .900 passing yards after 10 games i. He has 1. 27. then. 20. . 1 1 300. -85. He has 700 passing yards after 2 games g. 17.

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