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President and CEO, Total E&P Canada Ltd
Edmonton, Alberta January 2011
Population and Growth driving Energy demand
(purchasing power parity)
Billions Average growth per year 2005-2030(e) Trillions $ 2005 200 Mboe/d
3.6 % 1.5 %
6 100 4
3.3 % 5.3%
1.1 % 1.8 %
3.7% 0.5 % 0.3 %
2005 2030(e) 1980
Energy demand growth mainly driven by transportation and power generation Need to limit further energy demand
Sources: Total estimates
2 - Edmonton – January 2011
Oil & Gas to represent > 50% energy supply in 2030
World energy supply
Solar, Wind, other renewable energies Hydro Biomass excluding biofuels Nuclear
Fossil energies represent 81% incl. : •Oil : 35% •Gas : 21%
Fossil energies represent 75% incl.: •Oil : 30% •Gas : 22%
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Efficient CO2 emissions management and diversification of energy supply are key issues
Source: Total estimates. * Million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
3 - Edmonton – January 2011
coal bed methane.000 Bboe Unconventional resources oil shale. hydrocarbons will be dominant fuel source for the next decades Total estimates 4 .Edmonton – January 2011 .000 Bboe 100 years Gas resources ~3. Iran and Qatar Development of shale gas production in the US driving a reevaluation of unconventional gas resources Transportation and liquefaction constraints limit development of isolated gas resources Oil and gas resources require advanced technology and large scale investment With ample availability of oil and gas and existing infrastructure.Significant hydrocarbon resources yet to be produced Oil resources ~3. tight gas 70 years >125 years Extra Heavy oil & Bitumen 50 years 33 years of production at current pace New discoveries and increased recovery rate Identified resources 80 years 55 years of production at current pace Already produced Conventional oil located mainly in the Middle East Extra heavy oil and Bitumen concentrated in Canada and Venezuela Conventional gas resources concentrated in Russia. shale gas.
Edmonton – January 2011 .But additional oil resources are more and more difficult and expensive to extract Break even oil price in 2010 (IRR >10%) $/bbl Oil shales 100 Arctic Extra Heavy Extra oil Enhanced Recovery 80 Ultra deep water 60 Deep water 40 20 OPEC Middle East Other Conventional Billions of barrels 1000 2000 3000 Sources: IEA. CERA. Total 5 .
Oil production by 2020-2030 around 95 million barrels per day Not a “peak oil”. Iraq 09 Nigeria 09 30(e) 30(e) 30(e) Geopolitical uncertainties delaying development of new capacities Stronger role of OPEC.Edmonton – January 2011 . rather a moving “ceiling oil” Oil production CIS 09 30(e) Mature areas OECD Mature areas Asia Middle East 09 09 30(e) Saudi Arabia. awaited growth of production in Iraq Heavy oil Americas 09 30(e) South America Brazil 09 30(e) Africa Extra Heavy oil & Bitumen are to be important contributors Up to ~ 8% of production by 2030 sources : Total estimates 6 . Iran.
Edmonton – January 2011 . gasoline and diesel for transport Necessary to upgrade refining and petrochemical plants to curb oil demand 7 .Long term Oil demand driven by transport & petrochemicals and mainly growth in emerging countries Oil products demand North America Europe CIS 09 30(e) 2009-2030 evolution of each segment Transport Petrochemicals +23% +47% -33% -2% 09 30(e) 09 30(e) China Power generation 09 30(e) Industry and other Middle East Total +15% 09 30(e) South America Asia excl. China Africa 09 30(e) 09 30(e) 09 30(e) Increasing demand for light products : naphtha for petrochemicals.
climate change calls for drastic reduction of CO2 emissions Technologies that can reduce global CO2 emissions from energy combustion 45000 40000 35000 30000 avoided emissions Mt CO2 25000 20000 Energy savings 15000 10000 5000 0 1990 Fossil fuel switch Renewable energies Nuclear energy Carbon sequestration Emission of reduction case 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source EU Commission Energy: A potential scenario to stay <450ppm eq CO2 8 .Edmonton – January 2011 .Simultaneously.
also includes tar sands to be developed with mining *** reserves of consolidated subsidiaries (FAS 69) and share of equity affiliates and non-consolidated companies 9 . 2009) 40 Europe and CIS 35 Other gas LNG Resources* 30 > 40 years 25 Americas 20 Other liquids 2P reserves** 15 > 20 years Bboe 12 6 10 Deep offshore Heavy oil 1P reserves*** 5 12 years Middle East / Asia 0 Africa ≥ 2 Bboe 1 .2 Bboe ≤ 1 Bboe Resources* : 40 Bboe Diversified global portfolio offering balanced risks rewards * proved and probable reserves at year-end 2008 plus contingent resources (SPE-PRMS) ** limited to proved and probable reserves estimated at year-end 2008 using company price assumptions. covered by E&P contracts on fields that have been drilled and for which technical studies have demonstrated economic development.Edmonton – January 2011 .Total: meeting global energy demand Resources*: 40 Bboe / 40 years (at December 31.
Nigeria Snohvit . QG 2 T5 .Canada JV Barnett Shale .Angola Northern Lights . 50% of Total’s resource base 10 .Russia Nigerian projects Under development Pazflor .Qatar Bontang .Argentina Under study CLOV .Canada Joslyn .2 .Edmonton – January 2011 . Oman LNG Angola LNG – Angola GLNG – Australia Ichthys .Algeria Sulige .Total .Canada Fort Hills .Nigeria Block 32 .China Montélimar . Bonga .Nigeria Laggan Tormore . 14 .Madagascar Represents approx.Norvège Yemen LNG (2 trains) Adgas .Angola Usan .Angola Producing Akpo.Australia Shtokman .1 .Canada Bemolonga .Angola Egina .Indonesie NLNG .France Neuquen .Gulf of Mexico Petrocedeño .UK Surmont Ph.US QG 1.Nigeria Moho Bilondo .Venezuela Surmont Ph. focusing increasingly in growth areas Deep offshore Heavy oil Unconventional gas LNG Blocks 17.Canada Expansion JV Barnett Shale – US GLNG – Australia Ahnet .Congo Tahiti .
Edmonton – January 2011 . venture capital * Total estimates 11 . other renewables Hydro Biomass. MIT (batteries). wind.33% interest in Penly project (1600 Mwe) 2005 2030(e) Developing projects in countries where the Group has a presence Capitalizing on our competences Developing R&D. partnerships. AE Polysilicon (polysilicon for PV) 250 Biomass: R&D for advanced biofuels and green chemicals R&D on thermochemical processes BioTfuel pilot (gasifying biomass) 150 Gas 75% fossil fuel 30% oil 22% gas R&D on biotechnological processes Futurol pilot (lignocellulose) Gevo (sugars isobutanol). Konarka (organic PV).Total: developing complementary. Tenesol. Elevance 50 Oil Nuclear: acquiring expertise 8. LPICM (thin films). Abu Dhabi solar project (110 Mwe) 350 Solar. low-CO2 emitting energies in response to the challenge of satisfying future demand Global energy mix by 2030(e)* Mboe/d Main axes selected by Total to prepare for the evolution of the energy mix Solar: integration and advanced R&D Strengthening industrial and downstream integration Photovoltec. excluding biofuels Biofuels Nuclear Coal Technological differentiation (JVs and partnerships for R&D) IMEC (crystaline PV). Amyris.
Edmonton – January 2011 .Total: facing the access to energy Challenge Already 250 000 people supplied with ad hoc solutions 12 .
5% Production & Refining Coal 23% « Operations » Phase 5% Of which Industry 4% * sources GIEC et AIE 13 .5% Buildings 8% Use Phase 28.Green House Gases : ~50 Gt CO2 eq. Electricity 7. today Transport 13 % Deforestation 17% Oil & Agriculture 14% Gas 33.5% Other GHG.Edmonton – January 2011 .5 % Oil & Gas 33.5% Industry inc. various 12.
5% Agriculture 14% Production & Refining 5% Operations Phase : Flaring & Energy Efficiency : solutions for our plants 55 Mt CO2eq Total operator 2009 Other GHG.Oil and Gas / Operations : What can Total do? Deforestation 17% Oil & Gas Customers Use 28.5% Coal 23% Source GIEC et AIE 14 .Edmonton – January 2011 . various 12.
5% Coal 23% sources GIEC et AIE 15 . various 12.5% Buildings 8% Solutions for our customers / users 600MtCO2eq Total Marketer 2009 Agriculture 14% Industry inc. Electricity 7.5 % Production & Refining (operations) 5% Other GHG.Edmonton – January 2011 .Oil & Gas/ Users : What can Total do? Transport 13 % Deforestation 17% Use Phase : 28.
6% Total Petrochemicals and Hutchinson: .8% TP and Hutchinson: Plastics and rubber for lighter systems .2% Drag 2.2% Hutchinson: Active mass dampers Stop & Go Hybridization Source: EPA.4% Driveline 12.Sealing systems 100% Engine 20. 16 .2% Total: Tire inflation Idling 17.4% Total: Automotive fuel and lubricant performance Hutchinson: Thermodynamics Accessories 2.Edmonton – January 2011 Driveline losses 5.6% Rolling resistance 4.Total Transportation solutions City driving: distribution of energy use Energy inefficiencies 62.Fascia .6% Total: Lubricant performance Hutchinson: Transmission/rubber Ecodriving Inertia and braking 5.
5 % Production & refining (opérations) 5% Other GHG.CO2 Capture & Storage : a potential solution for industries with high CO2 emissions Deforestation 17% Transport 13 % Oil & Agriculture 14% Buildings 8% Gas 33.5% Charbon Electricité 19 % Capture storage CO2 Solutions for industries with high emissions of CO2 Industrie 4% * sources IPCC & IEA 17 . electricity 7. various 12.Edmonton – January 2011 .5% Industry inc.
France on January 11.Edmonton – January 2011 . 2010 18 .Carbon capture and storage demonstration facility inaugurated in Lacq.
1 B 2009-2014(e) Resources: 35% Hydrocarbons.9 B Supporting growth potential in oil and gas through new technologies Improving industrial and product efficiency and reducing environmental impact Accelerating the development of core competencies in new energies 19 .Edmonton – January 2011 . a huge R&D effort Increasing leverage to R&D Environmental performance: 10% $7.Anticipating the future energy demand. new energies Products: 35% Innovative technologies & process optimization: 20% Total’s R&D investment in 2009: $0.
25%*/SUNCOR 36.100%: 160 kbpd bitumen 2016 Griffon Joslyn (TOTAL operator 38. Prod.75%*/OXY 15%/ INPEX 10%) Mining.1) 100 kbpd 2017-18. Prod. JME (Expans. 1: 27 kbpd 2007. Joslyn shares subject to Total-Suncor transaction completion expected by 1Q2011 .8%*/Teck 20%) Mining.) 100 kbpd VOYAGEUR Upgrader (TOTAL 49%*/SUNCOR operator 51%*) Upgrading: 245 kbpsd 2016 Fort McMurray Surmont (TOTAL 50%/Conoco operator 50%) In-Situ (SAGD). 2015 Emerillon Lease 20 . Voyageur. Prod. 2: 110 kbpd.2%* / SUNCOR operator 40. Ph. 100 kbpd bitumen Fort Hills (TOTAL 39.Total in Canada : strong base to grow our production Buckton Asphalt Creek Northern Lights (TOTAL operator50% /SINOPEC 50%) Mining. 100%: JNM (ph. 100%: ult. Prod.Edmonton – January 2011 Total Operator Total Partner Operated * Fort Hills. 100%: Ph.
000 bbl/d Surmont (Total 50%) Future developments Phase 2 : sanctioned January 2010. bringing production to 110. Weyburn & others Developing expertise in a key in situ technology 21 .Surmont : one of the largest SAGD leases Operated by ConocoPhillips (50%) Phase 1 already producing 20 well pairs at start-up from two pads Steam injection started in June 2007 Currently producing 23. Phase 3 : conceptual study in 2011 Additional phases are possible for full lease development Technology investment to minimize impacts SAGD technology continuously enhanced ES-SAGD pilot under construction SAGD creates less land disturbance although GHG emissions still a challenge CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) experience from Lacq.Edmonton – January 2011 .000 bbl/d by 2015.
25*%) Multiphase development in basic engineering and regulatory stages Expected to yield 2 Bb of bitumen production over 30 years Oil sands surface mining techniques 100.000 bbl/d for Joslyn North Mine JNM hearing in September 2010 Technological and R&D investment to limit environmental impact New methods of sand and thickened tailings beaching for enhanced tailings management Off Stream storage pond integrated Cogeneration Plant Industry cooperation / joint research pilots Total operator Leases covering area of 221 km2. of which 70 km2 Total Canada committed to developing technically and environmentally challenging project 22 .Edmonton – January 2011 .Joslyn : preparing production for 2017 .2018 Joslyn (Total 38.
4 billion barrels of bitumen Extracted by mining with truck and shovel Planned start-up mid 2016 Two-phase development: Initial production : ~160. remaining 20% held by Teck Resources Ltd Estimated 3.000 bbl/d With de-bottlenecking: ~190.Fort Hills : growing our portfolio Operated by Suncor (40.000 bbl/d Fort Hills (Total 39.2%*) 23 .8%*).Edmonton – January 2011 .
000 bbl/sd Scheme: Delayed Coker 3 pairs of drums Voyageur Upgrader (Total 49%*) Close to existing Suncor Upgraders Hot bitumen from Fort Hills and Joslyn North mines Project resumed after interruption .Voyageur Upgrader : upgrading in Alberta Operated by Suncor (51%*) Design: 245.Edmonton – January 2011 .planned start-up 2016 24 .
Edmonton – January 2011 .Northern Lights Partnership: long term development Operated by Total Canada (50%). remaining 50% held by SinoCanada (Sinopec affiliate) Estimated 1 billion barrels of bitumen to be recovered by mining One phase development around 100.000 bbl/d Ongoing evaluation of the best scenarios for development. production and export Northern Lights Partnership (Total 50%) 25 .
Edmonton – January 2011 .Environmental issues at the core of Oil Sands bad press “For every barrel of oil sands it requires enough natural gas to heat an average Alberta home for four days” Al Gore “Carbon Neutral by 2020: A Leadership Opportunity in Canada's Oil Sands” Pembina Institute “Dirty Oil” “The most destructive project on earth” Environmental Defense “The oil sands reserves cover an area of 140.equivalent to 25% of Alberta (approximately the size of France)” World Wildlife Fund 26 .000 km2 of the boreal forest .
Edmonton – January 2011 .Canada Oil Sands: what are we talking about ? 27 .
Edmonton – January 2011 .000 100.000 10.s 100.000 1.000 100 10 1 50 100 5% Water envelope Oil flowing limit 150 200 250 300°C source : CAPP 28 .000.000.Canadian Oil Sands : a challenging resource to produce Oil Sand composition 10% Bitumen film 14% Fines (clayminerals) Characteristics of Athabasca bitumen 7-9 API Not mobile at reservoir conditions (10°C) Bitumen requires : dilution for pipeline transport and/or upgrading to produce Synthetic Crude Oil (SCO) 71% Sand particle Viscosity mPa.000.000 1.000 10.
Mining and in-situ extraction methods for oil sands 20 m Currently Mined Mining Established resources** = 34 Bb 20% of resources 100 m Pit Mining In-situ Established resources** = 136 Bb 80% of resources Depth In-situ / Thermal / SAGD* Great potential requiring advanced technology * SAGD : Steam assisted gravity drainage ** Ultimate bitumen resources : ~300 Bb of which recoverable resources : 175 Bb (source : ERCB) 29 .Edmonton – January 2011 .
Cogen) Up to 70 kg CO2 /b MINING Up to 45 kg CO2 /b 30 .Edmonton – January 2011 .Looking at the CO2 intensity of oil sands production Power by others JOSLYN/SURMONT REFERENCES CONVENTIONAL OIL* 15 – 100 kg CO2e/b (~25 kg CO2e/b) SAGD Power by others MINING 62 kg CO2 /b 38 kg CO2 /b (incl.
Edmonton – January 2011 Mining Joslyn N Mine: 1.6 bw/bb (steady state) up to 2.Reducing Water Usage in Oil Sands Projects : Joslyn & Surmont Surmont SAGD Closed circuit system 95% of water needs from recycled water Withdrawal of make-up water from groundwater wells Joslyn North Mine 90-day off-stream storage pond 80% of water needs from recycled water Net Water Withdrawal Intensity (bbl water per bbl bitumen) In-Situ Surmont SAGD: 0.3 bw/bb Other projects: 0.3 (maximum) Other projects: 2 .4 bw/bb .2 .1 bw/bb 31 .
rest 7 yrs later Existing mining projects typically <40% reclaimed by closure km2 Surmont In-situ Phase 1: 1.800 km2 is mineable (0.2 million km2 Oil sands: 140.2 km2 (initial develop.) Voluntary Faster Forests Program to expedite tree planting/reclamation Joslyn North Mine: reducing disturbance and accelerating reclamation process Yet biodiversity wealth must be protected and cumulative impacts managed 32 .Edmonton – January 2011 .1% of Canada’s or 1% of Alberta’s boreal forest) ~ 20 000 km2 considered for in situ developments Currently disturbed by oil sands mines: 602 km2 (< Calgary foot print) Joslyn North Mine 70 61% to be reclaimed by closure using progressive reclamation.) Phase 2: 4 km2 (initial develop.000 km2 of which 4.Land Disturbance Footprint in Boreal Forest Canada’s boreal forest : 3.
Edmonton – January 2011 .TEPCA Calgary Research Centre Created in 2008. already ~ 20 M$/year Mine Production In Situ Production Bitumen Production Management of Resources & Environment Upgrading Tailings Treatment Transportation Technology Barrels: Investing in the long-term future 33 .
The importance of our local stakeholders Fort Chipewyan Fort McKay 34 .Edmonton – January 2011 Fort McMurray .
health.. aboriginal culture.) Canadian university partnerships and scholarships Reconciling economic development with environmental and social performance 35 .Edmonton – January 2011 .Stakeholder relations: critical to acceptability Community investment Strong industry cooperation to address cumulative effects First Nations concerns addressed Treaty rights Cumulative impacts Cultural preservation & respect Business opportunities Over C$5M invested since 2008 Engagement with communities based on dialogue and empowerment Mitigation Plans Community Content Plans Socio-Economic agreements Wide range of investments in Canadian organizations (arts.. etc. environment.
water.Edmonton – January 2011 . strict administrative process. land footprint. local acceptability Stakeholder relations Engaging communities based on dialogue and sustainable partnerships Further R&D to improve management of resources and environment Fueling the future: Need for a “New Balance” and continuous improvement 36 .Total committed to sustainable development Challenging Economics High breakeven Unknown CO2 cost More stringent royalties regime Environmental Challenges CO2.
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