Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 20, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 20, 2013

Highlights
US NAHB Housing Market Index declined to 46-mark in February. German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 48.2-level in last month. Japans Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.68 trillion Yen in January. European ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to 42.4-mark in Feb. Asia markets are trading higher today on the back of rise in the earnings of the Japanese exporters. Additionally, German investor confidence which came on a favorable note yesterday also supported an upside in the market sentiments. US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index declined by 1 point to 46-mark in February as against a rise of 47level in January. Chinas Foreign Direct Investment declined by 7.3 percent in January from earlier fall of 3.7 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5939.7 19635.7 14035.67 1530.9 16664.4 1985.8 58497.8 11372.3 96.66 1603.60 2941.30 8052.00 #N/A 102.09 Prev. day 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.6 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.8 -0.3 -1.4 -0.9 #N/A 0.0

as on February 19, 2013 WoW 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.1 2.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -2.7 -4.8 -2.3 #N/A 0.3 MoM -1.8 -1.7 2.4 3.0 -6.2 -0.5 -5.5 4.1 0.4 -4.9 -8.5 2.6 #N/A 0.1 YoY 6.7 7.4 8.4 12.5 -0.4 1.6 -11.6 19.9 -6.4 -7.0 -11.4 -2.5 #N/A -1.8

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and depreciated marginally in yesterdays trading session on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Apart from that, rise in the German and the European investors confidence data coupled with US markets trading on a positive note also exerted downside pressure on the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the back of US Housing Market Index data coming on unfavorable note. The currency touched an intra-day low of 80.51 and closed at 80.55 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE)** US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)** 80.55 54.12 54.31 54.32 Prev. day 0.0 0.2 -0.04 -0.03

as on February 19, 2013 WoW 0.5 -0.6 0.61 0.63 MoM 0.7 -0.7 0.84 0.86 YoY 1.4 -9.2 10.02 10.04

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated marginally in the last trading hour on Monday taking cues from late foreign fund inflows coupled with selling of dollars from exporters. Apart from that, upbeat domestic market sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. However, major part of the day the currency remained depreciated on account of dollar demand from oil importers coupled with strength in the DX. Further, statement from countrys central bank chief on Saturday said that there is limited scope for monetary easing which also exerted downside pressure on the currency. It touched an intraday high of 54.14 and closed at 54.185 against dollar on Monday. For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.21,428.10 crores ($4,019.48 million) as on 18th February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.43,487.10 crores ($8,078.80 million) till th 18 February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of dollar demand from oil importers.

Source: Reuters th (** Prices as on 18 February as markets closed on eve of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti)

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for February 20, 2013 Support 54.25/54.10 Resistance 54.50/54.65

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 20, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent yesterday taking cues from German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased by 16.7 points to 48.2-level in February as against a rise of 3.15-mark in January. European ZEW Economic Sentiment rose by 11.2 points to 42.4-mark in current month from earlier rise of 31.2-level in January. Additionally, weakness in the DX along with upbeat market sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3396 and closed at 1.3384 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of German PPI data expected to come on a positive note. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will also act as a positive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 72.35/72.20 72.65/72.85 valid for February 20, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE)** Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCXSX)** 1.3386 72.60 72.46 72.5 Prev. day 0.3 0.0 0.08 0.10

as on February 19, 2013 WoW -0.5 -0.3 0.36 0.42 MoM 0.5 -1.7 0.72 0.75 11.75 11.79 YoY 1.1

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. However, weakness in the DX along with rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5413 and closed at 1.5422 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, countrys unemployment rate and average earnings index is expected to come on a favorable note which will also support an upside in the currency. However, Claimant Count Change is expected to decline but would be less than previous which will cap sharp gains of even reversal in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 20, 2013 Support 83.80/83.60 Resistance 84.25/84.50

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE)** GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX)** 1.5422 83.867 84.03 Prev. day -0.27 -0.52 -0.15

as on February 19, 2013

WoW -1.5 -0.73 -0.75

MoM -2.6 -1.64 -2.13

YoY -2.6 7.45 7.50

84.02

-0.15

-0.80

-2.12

7.47

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 20, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.68 trillion Yen in January as against a previous deficit of 0.78 trillion Yen a month ago. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 93.27 and closed at 93.56 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, downside in the currency will be seen as a result of countrys trade balance data coming on a negative note. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 20, 2013 Support 57.55/57.20 Resistance 58.35/58.84
Source: Telequote

as on February 19, 2013 Last 93.56 0.5788 57.85 57.84 Prev day -0.4 -0.40 -1.41 -1.41 WoW 0.1 1.03 -0.03 -0.05 MoM 5.5 -3.00 -3.60 -3.62 YoY 17.5 -6.69 -7.33 -7.36

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE)** JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)**

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on February 20, 2013

Indicator Trade Balance German PPI m/m Claimant Count Change MPC Meeting Minutes Unemployment Rate German 10-y Bond Auction Building Permits PPI m/m Core PPI m/m Housing Starts Mortgage Delinquencies Country Japan Euro UK UK UK Euro US US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 12:30pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:00pm Tentative 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 20 24
th th

Actual -0.68T -

Forecast -0.59T 0.4% -5.3K 0-0-9 7.7% 0.92M 0.3% 0.2% 0.93M -

Previous -0.80T -0.3% -12.1K 0-0-9 7.7% 1.56/1.7 0.91M -0.2% 0.1% 0.95M 7.40%

Impact Medium Medium High High Medium Medium High High Medium Medium Medium

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