What should Win? What Will Win?

Our critics pick this year’s likely winners

OSCARS 2013

otillard Marion C one) ust and B (R

Peter Bradshaw Best Picture Will win Should win Shoulda been a contender Best director Will win Should win Shoulda been a contender Best actor Will win Should win Shoulda been a contender Best supporting actor Will win Should win Shoulda been a contender Best actress Will win Should win Shoulda been a contender Best supporting actress Will win Should win Shoulda been a contender Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) Sally Field (Lincoln) Olivia Williams (Anna Karenina) Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) Emmanuelle Riva Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) Alan Arkin (Argo) Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) Edward Norton (Moonrise Kingdom) Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) Denis Levant (Holy Motors) Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) Steven Spielberg Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master) Argo Django Unchained Killing Them Softly

Xan Brooks

CatherIne shoard

andrew PULVer

henry Barnes

Argo Django Unchained The Master

Lincoln Lincoln Ted

Argo Django Unchained Ted

Argo Django Unchained Killing Them Softly

Steven Spielberg Michael Haneke (Amour) Paul Thomas Anderson

Steven Spielberg David O Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) Paul Thomas Anderson

Steven Spielberg Steven Spielberg Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Steven Spielberg Steven Spielberg Leos Carax (Holy Motors)

Daniel Day-Lewis Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)

Daniel Day-Lewis Daniel Day-Lewis John Hawkes (The Sessions)

Daniel Day-Lewis Daniel Day-Lewis Paul Dano (For Ellen)

Daniel Day-Lewis Daniel Day-Lewis Matthias Schoenaerts (Rust and Bone)

Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) Philip Seymour Hoffman Viggo Mortensen (On the Road)

Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) Philip Seymour Hoffman Samuel L Jackson (Django Unchained)

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) Seth MacFarlane (Ted)

Christoph Waltz Philip Seymour Hoffman Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)

Emmanuelle Riva Emmanuelle Riva Michelle Williams (Take this Waltz)

Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) Emmanuelle Riva Elle Fanning (Ginger and Rosa)

Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) Jennifer Lawrence Marion Cotillard

Emmanuelle Riva Emmanuelle Riva Annika Wedderkopp (The Hunt)

Anne Hathaway Helen Hunt (The Sessions) Elizabeth Olsen (Liberal Arts)

Anne Hathaway Sally Field Juno Temple (Killer Joe)

Anne Hathaway Amy Adams (The Master) Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

Anne Hathaway Amy Adams Juno Temple

10 The Guardian 22.02.13

d : admitte Weinstein with the kes to mista go g of Djan marketin ed Unchain

Every cloud … Can Silver Linings Playbook save the day for flagging super-producer Harvey Weinstein

spoke about their own families’ experiences of manic depression. The film was screened to combat veterans in Iraq, who might identify with the posttraumatic-stress angle. A series of ads were launched quoting one Dr Mehmet Oz, MD, who wrote that the film “shows us the humanity and similarities in the lives of those who are challenged with major disorders”. That was at the end of January. For the final furlong, though, something a little more feelgood was required, and Ebert came through

bang on deadline. Silver Linings – once a dark comedy, then a sensitive drama – is now a redemptive romance. Yes, the Ebert quote touches on the troubledfamily-member angle, but it also highlights the film’s fist-pumping climax and cheery domesticity. The choice of photo to illustrate is inspired: an embrace from the final scene that’s as close to an everyperson cuddle as Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence can get. Weinstein doesn’t like losing. Maybe love really can save the day. Catherine Shoard

‘T

HE MOMENTUM HAS SHIFTED,” newspaper readers in America have been informed, in no uncertain terms, over the past week. A series of ads in the LA and NY Times – full-page, emphatic font – quoted the lion’s share of a very short blog by the critic Roger Ebert which launched last Friday. “For Best Picture,” it read, “more and more, from many different quarters, I hear affection for Silver Linings Playbook. “People tell me, ‘I have a brother-in-law exactly like that.’ I sense a groundswell.” Such last-gasp campaigning (voting closed on Tuesday) marked Harvey Weinstein’s final chance to cheerlead for the only horse he has left in the race. The super-producer usually dominates awards season; this year he hasn’t, despite some well-groomed ponies. The Master flopped at the box office, then bagged neither a best picture nor best director nomination, despite ecstatic reviews. This Weinstein has ascribed to his own inability to sufficiently educate people about cinema. How can folks recognise a masterpiece if they don’t have the training to know one when they see it? As for Django Unchained, he has admitted he should have sent out screeners, rather than assuming voters would make the effort to see it on the big screen. Two qualified apologies, then, which beat up philistine peers as much as himself, but admissions of failure, none the less. So he has cut his losses and instead thrown his weight behind David O Russell’s screwball romcom. Trouble is, for such a terrific, photogenic film, it’s a strangely tough sell, as evidenced by the switchback tactics employed to flog it. Silver Linings didn’t fly in America when initially marketed as a dark comedy. So, despite some noises off about its depiction of bipolar disorder, a more traditional awards campaign was launched focusing on the ways in which it raises awareness of mental illness. Russell and star Robert De Niro both

22.02.13 The Guardian 11

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