Why

Asset-Allocations

Fail

A presentation of

Weather-Eye Advisors
Forward looking Risk-controlled Investing solutions
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Allocation of What? Most asset allocation are allocations of different Asset Classes You want to diversify your risk not your assets

Here's a typical “diversified” allocation
Small Cap Stocks, Middle Cap Stocks, Large Cap Stocks, High Yield Bonds, Foreign Stocks and Real Estate

Do you notice anything? Different assets, but the same risk.

What is going on?

Crappy Diversification If I sell you four types of crap
Small Crap

Mid Crap

Large Crap
Foreign Crap

It doesn't really matter. Rain. sun or snow it will still behave like crap.

It the same for stocks. For the most part stocks will behave like stocks. Small Cap Mid Cap Large Cap When the market tanks they all go Cap-put.

Like This.

So...What do you do? You, follow the money.

But, before you do that you need to know where money comes from. How does new money get into the economy and eventually into the markets?

U.S. Currency comes from the US Government. Some people think it comes from China, like coffee makers, but it doesn't.

When the government spends money on anything, it is new money in the economy.

When the government taxes it removes the money. The money isn't re-spent it is destroyed.

It works like this. New money is spent into the economy and old money is taxed. The government doesn't spend your tax money, but people like to believe it does.

The money pools in the economy as private sector liquidity The private sector liquidity is what we spend, save or invest.

Here is how it happens.
(more or less)

The government buys a submarine for a million dollars. (They're on sale).

The submarine company deposits the million in their bank.

The bank wanting to get interest buys a million dollar treasury bond

Now, everything balances the government spent a million dollars that is deposited in a or many banks. The banks buy bonds and now the government has borrowed back its own money. So now there is a million dollars of new money and a million dollars of government debt. Everything balances.

Banks also create money the same way.
You borrow $100,000 from the bank to buy a boat and pay it to the boat company. That night the boat company deposits 100,000 in their bank. Later in the month the Fed ask the bank if they have the money to cover the loan and they say. “Yes, we have $100,000 in new bank deposits.”

Once again, everything balances the bank loaned 100,000 dollars to the boat owner. Then it reserved the loan with the money it lent. So now there is a 100,000 dollars of new money and a 100,000 of bank debt. Everything balances.

Banks and the Government create and destroy money.
Government Spending Private Bank Lending

Private Sector Liquidity

Government Taxes

Loan repayments and defaults

So? what's this have to do with investing?.

To make money you investing you have to “catch” the money as it flows through the system.

To make money you investing you have to “catch” the money as it flows through the system.

Ask yourself where does the money go inside the economy on its journey from creation to destruction? If it goes to bid up the price of your financial assets you'll make money.

People can only do three things with money.
Spend it Save it Or, Invest it

I guess they could do this, but its expensive

In this model, money is save if it is put into a government-guaranteed bond or bank account. Anything else is investing or spending.

Let's look at investing it.

When it is invested it moves from buyer to seller without being destroyed or removed from the economy

Money Supply

Stocks

Private or Local Bonds

Commodities Money Supply

Real Estate

Buyers money

When you buy a stock the supply of money in the economy doesn't change it just goes from buyer to seller. So how can you “make” money?

Seller's money

So if in an imaginary world we diverted all of our money to stocks they could never go up in value because there is only so much money. (assuming our money supply is unchanged)

If there is only $100 dollars in the money supply that is the most you can sell your stock for.

For stocks to increase, investment money has to be diverted from elsewhere in the economy from savings or consumption.

If you want the to spend more on the investment you have to spend less on the other two things.
Less spending Less saving

More investing

That's why we usually don't have goods and service inflation at the same time we have a bull market and economic growth (spending growth). Think about the 1990's. Good market low inflation. Or the 1970's high inflation lousy market.

If the money gets saved in a government bond instead then the currency disappears out of system until the bond matures.
This is because a dollar is a type of bond a “bill of credit” that's why we call them “bills”. If you buy a bond with a another bond from the same issuer one is canceled out. The currency disappears for the length of the bond.

When the money is spent on investment and consumption it is recycled from buyer to seller. But when it is saved it is take out of the system.

It is benched. It is out of the race.

So things look like this.
Government Spending Private Bank Lending Private dis-saving

Private Sector Liquidity

Government Taxes, bond sales, and personal savings

Loan repayments and defaults

When money flows to stocks it is recycled back into the economy. When it goes to government bonds it is not.

When currency flows increase into government-insured savings instead of consumption we get

DEFLATION

Deflation occurs when the price of assets, wages, goods, or services decrease. This usually bad for the economy because the price of assets goes down but the level of debt remains constant. . This is what happened during the financial crisis.

Deflation occurs when the flow of money goes into governmentguaranteed savings. This money cannot be recycled into debt repayment and makes it difficult to pay down the debt.
As the flow of money is redirected the price of stocks decrease and the price of government bonds increases.

When this happens the interest rate decreases Like this.

To combat deflation with Quantitative Easing the Fed buys government bonds to create a shortage and make it harder to save.

Fed buys Gov. bonds creating a shortage

The money flows to other places

When the money flows into consumption instead of savings we can sometimes get

INFLATION

General or goods and service inflation occurs when the prices of wages, goods and services increase. It isn't always bad. It is good if your wages increase and you owe a lot of debt. You can pay off the debt with cheaper dollars. This happened in the 1960s and 1970s.

Inflation occurs when the flow of money goes into consumer goods, fuel and food. This leaves less money for savings, stocks and bonds
The price of stocks tends to decrease and the price of government bonds increases.

To combat inflation in the early 80s the Fed sold government bonds to create a surplus and make it easier to save.
Fed sells Gov. bonds creating a surplus Money is remove from there economy The money flows from other places

Or sometimes the consumption causes inflation of capacity or

ECONOMIC EXPANSION

When money flows into investments instead of consumption or savings we usually get

ASSET INFLATION

Investors like inflation that increases the value of their investments. Most allocations focus solely on this economic outcome. Asset Inflation. But if assets don't inflate neither does your portfolio value.

Most standard allocations rely predominately on asset inflation. If financial asset prices don't inflate then the allocations perform poorly.

A risk allocation doesn't allocate between types of assets it allocates between economic outcomes

DEFLATION INFLATION EXPANSION ASSET INFLATION MUDDLING ALONG
AND NO OUTCOME

Here is a simple portfolio composed of investments allocated to the four economic outcomes.

Notice how much more diversified the investments behave.
This portfolio is comprise of Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds to protect against inflation, An S&P index to capture asset-inflation, Long term government bonds to protect against deflation and Government Mortgage Backed Securities to provide steady income in slow economies,

Find out more about money flows and risk -managed allocations in the book.

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