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**Math Portfolio Type II: Fish Production
**

Timothy Lau

February 25, 2013

Mathematics 30/31 IB SL

Mr Davidoff

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 2

Introduction

This assignment investigates two different environments of fish production of a certain country

compares them. The two different environments taken into account are fish production from the seas

and fish production from fish farms. The data was taken from the United Nations Statistics Division

Common Database. To carry out this task, variables and limitations have to be expressed, and the data

given has to be plotted. This will be done through various technologies, such as multiple graphing

software and graphing display calculators (GDC’s). The models developed from these graphs using math

and technology will be used to describe current trends as well as predict future trends.

Variables and Limitations

The year can be represented as ‘x’ and the total mass of fish caught in the sea can be represented as ‘y’

with a subscript of ‘fish caught in sea’ or ‘fish from fish farm’.

X is the independent variable, as year can flow without depending on the amount of fish caught.

Y is the dependent variable, as the mass of fish caught can only change when the year changes.

There are limitations to this. Since we know that there is not an infinite amount of fish on the earth, we

know that the number of fish caught in the sea, as the year approaches infinity, cannot go on forever.

Therefore, we know that this is not an exponential function, as that implies an infinite amount of fish.

We also know that it is very improbable that the amount of fish caught is zero, as we require fish to be

caught to keep the fish industries alive. Another limitation is that there cannot be a negative number of

fish caught. Therefore, the constraint for fish production is:

* +

Time is continuous. Fish industries have been alive for millennia. If y represented years, negative would

be a year BC (Before Christ). Fish production existed then as well. Therefore, y is an element of the reals.

*+

Fish from Seas

Year Mass of fish caught in sea in thousands of tonnes

1980 426.8

1981 470.2

1982 503.4

1983 557.3

1984 564.7

1985 575.4

1986 579.8

1987 624.7

1988 669.9

1989 450.5

1990 379.0

1991 356.9

1992 447.5

1993 548.8

1994 589.8

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 3

1995 634.0

1996 527.8

1997 459.1

1998 487.2

1999 573.8

2000 503.3

2001 527.7

2002 566.6

2003 507.8

2004 550.5

2005 426.5

2006 533.0

Table 1. Year and its corresponding mass of fish caught in sea in thousands of tonnes.

Figure 1. The year and its corresponding mass of fish caught in the sea in thousands of tonnes. This

graph was created using LoggerPro. There were several reasons why a limitation to this graph’s

maximum was not assigned. First of all, the graph seemingly fluctuates around a certain line. From here,

we can see that the fluctuation is dying down – however, we cannot assume that fish production will

always stay at that equilibrium point. There might be a fluctuation bigger than the one we see on the

graph. Another reason is that a proper model has not been assigned yet.

To view and model this graph more easily, we can start the numbering of the year from 0 onwards, 0

being 1980, and dividing all the terms of the mass by a hundred, making the y-axis “Total mass of fish

caught in the sea in hundred thousands of tonnes.”

Year Total mass of fish caught in the sea in hundred thousands

of tonnes

0 4.268

1 4.702

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 4

2 5.034

3 5.573

4 5.647

5 5.754

6 5.798

7 6.247

8 6.699

9 4.505

10 3.790

11 3.569

12 4.475

13 5.488

14 5.898

15 6.340

16 5.278

17 4.591

18 4.872

19 5.738

20 5.033

21 5.277

22 5.666

23 5.078

24 5.505

25 4.265

26 5.330

Table 2. The year starting from 0 (0 being 1980) and corresponding mass of fish caught in sea in hundred

thousands of tonnes.

Figure 2. The year starting from 0 and its corresponding mass of fish caught in the sea in hundred

thousands of tonnes. This graph was created using a graphing program called Graph.exe

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 5

(http://www.padowan.dk/). The graphing program has changed as this program makes the graph

clearer than LoggerPro does when printed out. Limitations still apply.

There is a definite trend from the data points. They seem to fluctuate around a certain total mass of fish

caught, somewhere in the 500-600 thousand tonne range. Whenever there is a large displacement from

this equilibrium, there is an almost equal displacement from the equilibrium in the opposite direction.

This second displacement tends to be smaller than the first as the points seem to want to return to the

equilibrium line. This effect is like a pendulum – as the external force keeping the pendulum in the air is

taken away, the swing slowly moves back to its equilibrium point. However, while it slows down, it

continues to sway back and forth until it actually stops at its equilibrium point. There is one more thing.

It is noticeable, but it is not a trend. At the start of the graph, as the graph approaches what seems to be

the equilibrium, it curves off, almost as if the equilibrium was an asymptote. In short, both the

amplitude and the period are decreasing as x approaches infinity.

There were several candidates for acceptable models. Because this graph fluctuates, a prominent

candidate was the trigonometric function – namely, sine and cosine. In physics, sine and cosine graphs

were utilized to show the effect of simple harmonic motion. The graphs regressed as the motion

decreased. This showed that both the trigonometric graphs can regress as this one has. Both the sine

and cosine graphs can be translated enough to follow the domain mentioned above. Another worthy

candidate is the sigmoid function from the logistic model. This function has a definite S-shape in the

graph. As the graph reaches a certain y-value, it tapers off along an asymptote. However, it may

fluctuate along this asymptote. We can see that the graph tapers off in the beginning, signifying that

there may be an asymptote in this graph. We can also extrapolate the S-shape before 1980 using

reasoning. The fishing industry had to have started at some time, which means that the amount of fish

being produced before that was at 0 [thousands of tonnes]. The fishing industry would have had

increasing amounts of production - when something flourishes, it grows. However, this growth in

production will eventually slow down, which is already shown in the graph above. Following this

reasoning, the graph is at an S-shape until around 1986, where fish production continues to fluctuate

along the asymptote. When a sigmoid function fluctuates, it does so very much in the manner that this

graph is doing so described in the trends section. Since this reasoning is logical, the S-shape extrapolated

can be safely assumed to be there. Another possible model that this graph can be is a combination of

two sinusoidal functions. When two of these functions are put together, their amplitudes either increase

or decrease the amplitude of the resulting curve. For example, when they are in phase with each other,

they will amplify the amplitude. This, called the principle of superposition in terms of physics, is a

possibility due to the varying amplitude of the curve shown above. Two basic trigonometric functions

can also be considered for use. Both their amplitude decreases while x approaches infinity. These

functions are: ()

()

and()

()

**. A piecewise function was not considered. This is
**

because of the fact that when a piecewise is used, the graph cannot be extrapolated and therefore

predictions cannot be made. The mathematical model that was developed was

f(x) = [(-((4.75cos((1/4)2x)-4.5)/x)+4]+[(1.1)sin(x))+0.5].

For the fish in thousands of tonnes, the model is

f(x) = [(-((4.75cos((1/4)2x)-4.5)/x)+400]+[(1.1)sin(x))+50].

For analytical work, see page 13.

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 6

Figure 3. The two curves (green and red) used to create the model (blue) through superposition. This

graph was created on Graph.exe.

Figure 4. The mathematical model along with the points on the graph as shown above. This graph was

created using a program called Graph.exe.

This was done using the method of superposition by combining the two basic functions ()

()

**and () (). Superposition seemed to be the best way to deal with the fact that the amplitude
**

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 7

was decreasing as ‘x’ approached infinity. Also, since the original function was a sinusoidal curve, it

made sense to use trigonometric functions. As amplitude decreased, one of the functions used had to

have decreasing amplitude as well. ()

()

**had the perfect amplitude decrease model.
**

()

()

**also had an amplitude decrease model. However, when parameters such as stretch and
**

placement were changed, ()

()

**stopped being so cooperative. Therefore, ()
**

()

was

chosen. In the second trigonometric function used for superposition, () () was chosen instead

of () () because the original had a slight curve off at the beginning (the slope approached 0).

Because of this, amplitude had to be decreased using a superposition with a change in phase. Using a

sine graph seemed much easier than changing a cosine phase. The only part that had to be worked out

were the transformations.

Fish from Fish Farms

Year Mass of Fish produce in fish farms in thousands of

tonnes

1980 1.4

1981 1.5

1982 1.7

1983 2.0

1984 2.2

1985 2.7

1986 3.1

1987 3.3

1988 4.1

1989 4.4

1990 5.8

1991 7.8

1992 9.1

1993 12.4

1994 16.0

1995 21.6

1996 33.2

1997 45.5

1998 56.7

1999 63.0

2000 79.0

2001 67.2

2002 61.2

2003 79.9

2004 94.7

2005 119.8

2006 129.0

Table 3. The year and its corresponding mass of fish produced in fish farms in thousands of tonnes.

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 8

Figure 5. The year and the corresponding mass of fish from fish farms in thousands of tonnes. This graph

was created using LoggerPro. From year 1980 to 2000, there is a large exponential growth. Then there is

a slight decrease from 2000 to 2002, where the decrease stops and the graph continually increases

linearly until 2006, where the graph stops. The model created displayed on Figure 3 does not fit this

graph. This has a prominent horizontal asymptote preventing the graph from entering below zero, while

the model created had a vertical asymptote. Also, the model did not account for the dip that this graph

experiences.

Year (starting with 1980 as 0) Mass of Fish produce in fish farms in thousands of tonnes

0 1.4

1 1.5

2 1.7

3 2.0

4 2.2

5 2.7

6 3.1

7 3.3

8 4.1

9 4.4

10 5.8

11 7.8

12 9.1

13 12.4

14 16.0

15 21.6

16 33.2

17 45.5

18 56.7

19 63.0

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 9

20 79.0

21 67.2

22 61.2

23 79.9

24 94.7

25 119.8

26 129.0

Table 4. To view this graph more easily, the year with 1980 starting as year 0 with corresponding mass of

fish produced in fish farms in thousands of tonnes.

Figure 6. To view this graph more easily, the year with 1980 starting as year 0 with corresponding mass

of fish produced in fish farms in thousands of tonnes. This graph was created using a program called

Graph.exe. Note: The last point labelled as series 1 is not a point, it merely names the point series.

For this graph, it is better to use a piecewise function to model it. This graph can be split into 3 different

pieces:

() * ()

* ()

* ()

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 10

Figures 7-9. The graph of Figure 6 split into its piecewise function.

From 0<x<20, we can see that the graph is a diverging exponential function.

This can be represented by the base exponential function: ()

Using the GDC tool PlySmlt2 tool, the equation for x {0≤x≤20} is () ()

.

From 20<x<22, we can see that the graph is a decreasing linear function

This can be expressed in the basic linear formula: ()

Using the graphing software, the equation for x {20≤x≤22} is () .

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 11

And from 22<x<26, we can see that the graph is a square root function.

This can be expressed in the basic linear formula: ()

Using the graphing software, the equation for x {22≤x≤26} is () .

Figures 10-15. Figures 7-9 with their corresponding equations respectively.

Lau – Math 20/30 IB SL – Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 12

Figure 16. Both models put together.

Trends

As mentioned before, the trend from the fish caught at sea was slowly decreasing while the fish

produced from fish farms increased exponentially. As fish farms continue to produce more fish, the less

the need for catching fish from the sea. Fish farms can safely produce the fish needed on the market

without endangering species. These farms are environments where the number of fish produced and

killed must be controlled or else the farm would fail, whereas no government can control how much fish

is fished from the seas. Also, it takes much less effort to produce from a fish farm than to catch a fish.

Weather, equipment cost, and time it takes to catch fish all come into effect for fishermen, whereas in a

fish farm, it is also in a controlled environment where the mother company supplies everything they

need. Another reason that fish farms are growing in popularity is due to advancing technology. With this

new tech, fish produced from fish farms are more likely to be higher in quality (better genetics, more

variety), and therefore, a higher demand for fish from farms.

Conclusion

Using the trend derived from the models, with fish from the sea slowly decreasing and fish from fish

farms increasing exponentially, a possible future trend is the continuation of both trends. Due to the

exponential increase of the production of fish farms, it is likely that in some point in the future, fish

produced from farms overtake and replace the fish from seas as the main supplier of fish.

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