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M E M O R AN D U M TO: Interested Parties FROM: RE: DATE: Global Strategy Group Casino Gambling and the 2013 electorate February 5, 2013

Casino Gambling Ballot Proposal Faces Uphill Battle
Majority of Statewide voters would vote NO on the current proposal in Albany Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 804 likely 2013 General Election voters in New York State between January 26-30, 2013 exploring the viability of a casino gambling ballot proposal. Key findings are as follows: Statewide voters would vote against the current proposal in Albany to legalize casino gambling, build three full-scale casinos upstate and leave the option for four additional casinos. Half of voters (50%) would vote no on this proposal, while 44% would vote yes.  A majority of voters in New York City (44% yes / 52% no) and upstate (41% / 52%) would vote against this proposal, while voters in the suburbs are split (49% / 44%).  The core of opposition to this proposal comes from older voters – a concerning fact because older voters are most likely to vote in lower turnout off-year elections like this one. Seniors 65+ (39% yes / 54% no), and especially women 55+ (33% / 58%), are most likely to oppose the proposal, while voters under 65 are much more mixed (47% / 48%). Other variations of the casino gambling ballot proposal would face similar opposition among voters. A majority of voters are opposed to two other versions of the ballot proposal – a plan to build seven full-scale casinos outside of New York City (44% yes / 51% no), and a plan to build only three full-scale casinos upstate (41% yes / 53% no).  The only plan that has majority support is the proposal to build six full-scale casinos outside New York City and a seventh by converting the existing racetrack casino at Aqueduct into a full-scale casino (50% yes / 44% no). Note that our research is different from other publicly available data on casino gambling because it was specifically designed to test the viability of a ballot proposal in the context of a 2013 election:  This survey was conducted among those voters likely to vote in a 2013 statewide general election. It is necessary to evaluate the viability of a ballot proposal among likely voters because in recent odd-year elections (average of 2001, 2005, 2009), only a third (33%) of all registered voters turned out to vote. Meanwhile, the major public polls (Quinnipiac, Siena, etc.) all typically conduct their polls among registered voters.  This survey was conducted to determine the viability of ballot proposal – testing whether voters would vote “yes” or “no” on this proposal. Our survey included specific language on ballot proposals to give voters context on this election. Most public polling questions on casino gambling ask voters their positions in terms of “support” and “oppose” of gaming without mention of a possible referendum or ballot proposal.

NEW YORK WASHINGTON, D.C. HARTFORD LOS ANGELES

GLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP.COM

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Statewide Viability of Casino Ballot Proposals
Three Casinos Upstate and Four in Future, Possibly in NYC One version of the proposal will amend the State Constitution to allow for up to seven fullscale casinos to be built in New York State. Three casinos would definitely be built in upstate New York, but this proposal would also authorize the creation of four additional casinos in the future, possibly including at sites within New York City. Casino at Aqueduct and Six Casinos Outside NYC One version of the proposal will amend the State Constitution to allow for up to seven fullscale casinos to be built in New York State. Six of these casinos would be built outside of New York City. The seventh would upgrade the existing racetrack casino at the Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens into a full-scale casino, but would not build any new casinos in New York City. Seven Casinos outside of NYC One version of the proposal will amend the State Constitution to allow for up to seven fullscale casinos to be built in New York State. All seven casinos would be built outside of New York City. Three Casinos Upstate and None in NYC One version of the proposal will amend the State Constitution to allow three new full-scale casinos to be built in upstate New York, but would not allow any new casinos to be built in New York City YES NO

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44% 41%

51% 53%