Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 27, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report
Wednesday| February 27, 2013

Highlights
US Consumer Confidence increased to 69.6-level in February. UK’s CBI Realized Sales declined to 8-mark in the current month. US New Home Sales data rose by 59,000 to 437,000 in January. Asian markets are trading higher apart from Japan on the back of favorable consumer confidence and home sales economic data from US. Additionally, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke statement of supporting the US Federal Reserve decision of bond buying program also led to upbeat global market sentiments. US Standard & Poor's (S&P) / Case-Shiller (CS) Composite-20 House Price Index (HPI) increased by 6.8 percent in December as against a rise of 5.4 percent a month ago. House Price Index (HPI) rose by 0.6 percent in December from earlier rise of 0.4 percent in prior month. Richmond Manufacturing Index was at 6-mark in February as compared to decline of 12-level in January. The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence increased by 11.2 points to 69.6-level in February with respect to rise of 58.4-mark in earlier month. New Home Sales data rose by 59,000 to 437,000 in January when compared to increase of 378,000 in previous month.

Market Highlights (% change)
Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr’13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar’13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5761.4 19015.1 13900.13 1496.9 15552.2 2000.0 58497.8 11398.8 92.63 1615.20 2925.60 7892.25 102.09 0.0 Prev. day -1.6 -1.6 0.8 0.6 -4.9 -0.5 0.2 -2.3 -0.5 1.8 0.0 0.8

as on February 26, 2013 WoW -3.0 -3.2 -1.0 -2.2 -6.7 0.7 2.1 -0.1 -4.2 2.4 2.2 -2.0 0.0 0.1 MoM -4.8 -4.9 -0.4 -0.4 -10.8 2.3 -3.2 1.9 -5.1 -3.9 -9.0 0.6 YoY 9.1 4.0 7.1 9.6 -4.6 3.1 -11.3 18.3 -14.7 -8.9 -21.2 -7.3 -1.5

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of favorable economic data from the US coupled with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke supporting the US Federal Reserve bond buying program. The currency touched an intra-day high of 82.04 and closed at 81.94 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar’13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.94 54.09 54.07 54.07 Prev. day 0.2 -0.2 0.35 0.35

as on February 26, 2013 WoW 1.7 0.1 -0.45 -0.46 MoM 2.9 -0.8 0.69 0.68 YoY 3.1 -9.1 10.35 10.34

Dollar/INR
Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated as a result of month end dollar demand from the importers coupled with weak global market sentiments in the early part of the trade. Additionally, strength in the DX in the initial part of the trade also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, weak domestic market sentiments also acted as a negative factor for the currency. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 54.265 and closed at 54.09 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.23,513.60 crores ($4,403.38 million) as on 26th February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.45,572.60 crores ($8,462.70 million) till 26th February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside will be capped on account of month end dollar demand from importers.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for February 27, 2013 Support 54.25/54.05 Resistance 54.60/54.80

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Currencies Daily Report
Wednesday| February 27, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated marginally by 0.01 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of fears that Italy’s election results won’t be able to form the government in the majority which lead to return of the Euro Zone debt crisis. Additionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3017 and closed at 1.3061 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook In today’s session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of favorable German Consumer Climate economic data along with Italian bond auction will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.90/70.60 71.50/71.80 valid for February 27, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar ’13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3061 70.67 70.62 70.6 Prev. day 0.0 0.7 -1.25 -1.25

as on February 26, 2013 WoW -2.4 2.7 -2.54 -2.57 MoM -3.2 2.1 -1.33 -1.34 7.61 7.61 YoY -2.5

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.3 percent taking cues from Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realized Sales declined by 9 points to 8-mark in February as against a rise of 17-level in January. Additionally, stronger DX also acted as a negative factor for the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.512 and closed at 1.5123 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar’13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar ’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5123 81.836 82.13 Prev. day -0.24 0.17 0.61

as on February 26, 2013

WoW -1.9 -2.42 -2.26

MoM -4.1 -3.41 -3.37

YoY -4.4 5.17 6.08

82.14

0.58

-2.24

-3.37

6.08

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in today’s trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments. Weakness in the DX will also support upside in the currency. Further, country’s GDP is expected to come unchanged which will also act as a positive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for February 27, 2013 Support 82.40/82.10 Resistance 82.95/83.20
Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report
Wednesday| February 27, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Japan’s Retail Sales declined by 1.1 percent in January as against a rise by 0.3 percent in December. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 92.74 and closed at 91.97 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, country’s retail sales data also came on a negative note which will also exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for February 27, 2013 Support 58.80/58.40 Resistance 59.50/59.90
Source: Telequote

as on February 26, 2013 Last 91.97 0.5871 58.81 58.80 Prev day 0.2 0.69 2.36 2.31 WoW -1.7 1.43 1.66 1.66 MoM 1.4 -0.96 -1.93 -1.92 YoY 14.2 -2.75 -3.34 -3.34

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar’13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar’13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on February 27, 2013
Indicator MPC Member Fisher Speaks Retail Sales y/y GfK German Consumer Climate M3 Money Supply y/y MPC Member Bean Speaks Second Estimate GDP q/q Prelim Business Investment q/q Italian 10-y Bond Auction Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Pending Home Sales m/m Crude Oil Inventories ECB President Draghi Speaks Country UK Japan Euro Euro UK UK UK Euro US US US US US Euro Time (IST) 12:00am 5:20am 12:30pm 2:30pm 2:50pm 3:00pm 3:00pm Tentative 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:30pm 8:30pm 9:00pm 11:00pm Actual -1.1% Forecast -1.4% 5.9 3.2% -0.3% 2.2% 0.3% -4.8% 1.7% 2.2M Previous 0.3% 5.8 3.3% -0.3% 3.8% 4.17/1.3 1.0% 4.3% -4.3% 4.1M Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium High Medium High High Medium High

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