Buncombe County

Economic Overview
Buncombe County Health and Human Services Board
February 22, 2013

1

Past Recessions & Months To Return To Pre Recession Employment
1980

0%

1981 1983

1990 1993

2001 2005

1%

2007 ?
(Jan 2013)

2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1

5

9

13

17

21

25

29
33
Months

37

41

45

49

53

57

61

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER

2

Current Recession Months to Pre Recession Employment
0%

2%

Buncombe
( 3,809 jobs, 4%)

4%

North Carolina
( 181,176 jobs, 5%)

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%
1

5

9

13

17

21

25

29

33

37

41

45

49

53

57

3

Total Employment Asheville Metro
180,000

175,000

170,000

165,000

160,000

155,000

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012
4

Total Employment Asheville Metro
180,000

11,800
6.6%

175,000

170,000

165,000

160,000

155,000

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012
5

Total Employment Asheville Metro
180,000

175,000

+7,500
+4.5%

170,000

165,000

160,000

155,000

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012
6

Total Employment: Annual Change
6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

Asheville

4%

6%

8%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
7

Total Employment: Annual Change
6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

Asheville

4%

United States
6%

8%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
8

Total Employment: Annual Change
6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

Asheville

4%

United States
North Carolina
6%

8%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
9

Buncombe County Top Job Gainers by Industry 2007=0
2,500
Recession

Health Care (+2,102
jobs, +10%)

2,000

1,500

Retail Trade (+589
jobs, +4%)

1,000

Lodging & Food
Services (+533 jobs,
+4%)
500
Public Administration
(+395 jobs, +7%)
Professional & Tech
Services (+285 jobs,
+6%)

0

(500)
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
10

Buncombe County Top Job Losers by Industry 2007=0
500

0
Educational Services
( 255 jobs, 3%)
(500)
Administrative
Services ( 833 jobs,
11%)

(1,000)

Manufacturing
( 1,437 jobs, 12%)

(1,500)

(2,000)

(2,500)
Construction ( 2,596
jobs, 37%)
Recession

(3,000)
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
11

Buncombe County Employment Change By Gender 2007=0
0

(2,000)

(4,000)

(6,000)

Female
( 6,698 jobs, 9%)
(8,000)

Male
( 8,943 jobs, 13%)
(10,000)

Recession
(12,000)
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12

Buncombe County Employment By Gender 2007

Health Care

Construction

78%

20%

22%

80%

Female

Male

13

Buncombe County Total Employment By Gender
75,000

70,000

Female
65,000

Male

60,000

55,000

50,000
1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011
14

Buncombe County Employment Change By Race 2007=0
0
Black or African
American Alone
( 1,906 jobs, 15%)

(2,000)

(4,000)

(6,000)

(8,000)

(10,000)

(12,000)

White Alone
( 12,664 jobs, 10%)
Recession

(14,000)
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
15

Buncombe County Employment Change By Race 2007=0
0
Native Hawaiian or
Other Pacific Islander
Alone
( 43 jobs, 14%)

(100)

American Indian or
Alaska Native
( 187 jobs, 19%)

(200)

(300)
More than One Race
( 371 jobs, 18%)

(400)

Asian Alone
( 471 jobs, 16%)

(500)

Recession
(600)
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
16

Buncombe County Employment Change By Ethnicity 2007=0
0
Hispanic
( 1,145 jobs, 15%)
(2,000)

(4,000)

(6,000)

(8,000)

(10,000)

(12,000)

(14,000)

Not Hispanic
( 14,487 jobs, 11%)

Recession
(16,000)
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
17

Buncombe County Employment Change By Education 2007=0
0

(500)

Less than high school
( 928 jobs, 6.1%)

(1,000)

Bachelor degree or
above
( 1,249 jobs, 4.6%)

(1,500)

(2,000)

Some college or
associate degree
( 2,622 jobs, 6.8%)

(2,500)

(3,000)
High school degree
( 3,128 jobs, 8.2%)
(3,500)
Recession
(4,000)
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
18

Buncombe County Employment Change By Age 2007=0
1,000

55 64
(+956 jobs, +5%)
65+
(+79 jobs, +1%)

0

(1,000)

(2,000)

25 34
( 2,544 jobs, 8%)
45 54
( 2,895 jobs, 10%)

(3,000)

35 44
( 3,524 jobs, 11%)

(4,000)

(5,000)

(6,000)

(7,000)

14 24
( 7,714 jobs, 30%)

Recession
(8,000)
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

19

Buncombe County Total Employment By Age
35,000

25 34

30,000

35 44
45 54
25,000

20,000

55 64
14 24

15,000

10,000

65+

5,000

0
1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011
20

Buncombe County Poverty Rates
45,000

20.0

40,000

18.0

16.0

35,000

14.0

12.0
25,000
10.0
20,000
8.0

Poverty Rate (%)

Persons in Poverty

30,000

15,000
6.0
10,000

4.0

5,000

2.0

0

0.0

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011
21

Poverty Rate (%) Comparison
19.0
Buncombe

18.0

North Carolina

17.0
16.0

United States

15.0
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011
22

Buncombe County Sources of Population Change
4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Natural

2005

2006

Domestic

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

International
23

Annual Population Growth Rates
2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

Buncombe
North Carolina

1.0%

United States
0.5%
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
24

Average Wage Per Job
$60,000

$48,301

$50,000

$43,107
$40,000

$37,229

$30,000

$20,000

$10,000

$0

Buncombe

North Carolina

United States
25

10 Y Change in Average Wage Per Job (inflation adjusted)
$2,500

$2,000

United States

North Carolina

$1,500

$1,000

$500

Buncombe

$0

($500)
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
26

Per Capita Income
$45,000

$41,560
$40,000
$35,000

$34,467

$36,028

$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0

Buncombe

North Carolina

United States
27

10 Y Change in Per Capita Income (inflation adjusted)
$3,000

$2,500

$2,000

United States

$1,500

$1,000

$500

North Carolina

$0

Buncombe

($500)

($1,000)

($1,500)
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
28

Buncombe County Changes in Components of Income
15%

23%

17%

23%

23%
21%
Personal Government
Transfers
Investment Income
Earning & Wages

62%

60%

1991

2001

55%

2011
29

10 Y Change in Buncombe Income (inflation adjusted)
$600,000

Personal
Government
Transfers

$500,000
$400,000

$ Thousands

$300,000
$200,000
Earnings & Wages
$100,000
Investment Income
$0
($100,000)
($200,000)
2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011
30

10 Y Change in Personal Govt. Transfers (inflation adjusted)
$250,000
Medical benefits

$ Thousands

$200,000
Retirement and
disability insurance
benefits

$150,000

$100,000

Income
maintenance
benefits

$50,000

$0
2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011
31

Buncombe Age Profile
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500

2012

1,000
500
0
<1

10

20

30

40

50
Ages

60

70

80

90

100+

32

Buncombe Age Profile
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500

2012
2022

1,000
500
0
<1

10

20

30

40

50
Ages

60

70

80

90

100+

33

2012 2022 Buncombe Age Profile Net Change
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
(200)
(400)
<1

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100+
34

Summary Observations

We are growing
The recession ended 5+ years ago but
we still have a ways to go
Industries leading growth:
Health Care
Retail
Lodging & Food
Professional & Technical Services

35

Summary Observations

Hardest Hit
Construction
Manufacturing
Administrative Services
Young Workers
Men
Nonwhites
High School Educated

36

Summary Observations

Poverty is at a historic high
Population growth holds, although at a
slower pace
Wages & Income stagnate
Government Transfer benefits expand
One half future growth will be +65 year olds
37

Buncombe* Existing Home Sales
1,200

$350,000

$300,000

1,000

$250,000
800
$200,000
600
$150,000
400
$100,000

200

$50,000

$0

0
2004

2005

2006

2007
Homes Sold

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Average Sales Price

38

*Includes Madison County

Buncombe* Existing Home Average Sales Price
Annual % Change By Quarter
35%
30%
28%

25%
22%
21%

20%

16%

15%

15%
13%12%

12%

10%

10%

9%
8%

7%

9%
6%

5%

4%
3%

2%

2%

0%

2%
0%

0%

1%

1%
4%

5%

2%

4%

4%
6%

7%

7%

10%

10%

11%

6%

6% 6%

11%

15%
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Average Sales Price
39

*Includes Madison County

Buncombe* Existing Homes Sold
Annual % Change By Quarter
250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

50%
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Homes Sold

40

*Includes Madison County

Buncombe Residential Building Permits
250

$60,000,000

$50,000,000

200

$40,000,000
150
$30,000,000
100
$20,000,000

50

$10,000,000

0

$0

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2008

2009
Single Family

2010

2011
Multi Family

2012
Value
41

Residential Real Estate Summary Observations
The number of existing homes sold has been up (year over
year) for the last six quarters
Average prices of existing homes sold is down in the final
quarter of 2012 by 2%, but was up in the three preceding
quarters
2012 residential permits dominated by single family units
2012 single family permits greater than in 2011 or 2010
Total permit activity still way below past (47% below 2008
value, 40% below 2008 units)
42

Sources
US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Slide 2
North Carolina Employment Security Commission: Slides 3 9
US Census Bureau: Slides 10 24, 41
US Bureau of Economic Analysis: Slides 25 31
North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management: Slides 32 34
North Carolina Association of Realtors: Slides 38 40

43

Contact Information:
Tom Tveidt
SYNEVA Economics
tom@syneva.com
www.syneva.com
828.734.5021

44

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