Presentable Market Data

Chuck Carr
Office: 770-698-8797 Cell: 678-591-6030 Email: ChartMasterChuck@aol.com www.ChartMasterServices.com

• Data

About This Report


– –

The source of all data contained herein is FMLS listings data for real estate transactions occurring in 41 selected FMLS areas and does not necessarily represent all market activity either for those areas or for the Atlanta Metro area. Analysis is performed by ChartMaster Services, LLC, an independent data analysis firm which cannot and does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the data or its publications. FMLS neither guarantees nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Accordingly, ChartMaster Services, LLC hereby disclaims any express or implied warranties, including those of merchantability and/or fitness for a particular purpose, and hereby notifies all readers and users that any reliance upon the data, information, analysis or opinions contained in any of our publications shall be at the reader’s own risk.

• Terms of Use


– –

These reports provide a competitive advantage for agents in participating Keller Williams offices and should be used in a manner to protect that advantage. Reports are provided by ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively to Keller Williams and should be treated as proprietary to those offices contracting for the service, not for distribution or posted to web sites in their entirety . Reports, either whole or in part, may be used in consultations with clients and prospects during the normal conduct of business by agents in offices contracting for the service. Agents in contracting offices are also encouraged to use selected charts in lead-generation activities as a way to encourage prospective clients to contact the agent for additional information.

– Acceptance and use of this report shall constitute acceptance of these terms.

Current Market Overview
Understanding three views of the current market allows Buyers to maximize their ability to evaluate properties, receiving the highest value in their home search and Sellers to position their property to maximize money in their pocket while minimizing time on market:

• Macro View: National Market
National Media Coverage

• Metro View: Atlanta Market Quarterly Metro Market Report
• Micro View: Your Community Comparative Market Analysis
3

New Abbreviated Presentation Design
Abbreviated mainline flow:
- Market Share - number one and growing
- Sales - up - Distressed - still a large part of sales, but may be slowly declining - Active listings - down and still declining (partly seasonal) - Effect of lower-actives/higher-sales - reduced supply in 2012 (now consistently into a Seller's Market) - Effect of Seller's Market on: Median Sales Price Median % S/L Median DOM Price Reductions - Continuing consequences of wrong pricing decisions (price reductions): Median % S/L Median DOM "Game Board" Failed Listings Putting it All Together ("Bubble Chart") - Distressed vs. Non-Distressed Supply - Summary - Supplemental Analysis Section

32 mainline charts in a total package of 79

Single Family Detached Residences
Metro Area FMLS Areas Included (41)
Cherokee County:
111 113 112 114 113 112 83 75 75 81 82 13 14 63 221 62 111 114 223 224

222

E. Cobb:
81 82 73 74

W. Cobb:
71 72

DeKalb:
24 41 42 51 52 121 53
74

Douglas:
91

83 191 73

131 132

121

61 66 64 41 65

Forsyth:
221 222 223 131 132 23 63 65 224 33

51

Fulton OTP:
13 14 21 22 62 65

Fulton ITP:
31 32

72

71

21

22

23
24

52

42

Gwinnett:
61 63 91

31

32

53

Paulding:
191 33

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

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Previous Listing Period Effect
(4Q 2012 Atlanta Data – 41 FMLS areas)
Other FMLS Data Sources
(No history data for listings off market for more than 30 days)

ChartMaster Data
(More realistic by including listing history data back as far as 2.5 years)

ChartMaster Difference from FMLS
+$21,400 (+13.5%) -2.6% (+$4,677) +24 Days (+44.4%)

Median Original list Price Median Sales Price/Original List Price Percent Median Days on Market Percent of Sales which required a Price Reduction

$158,500

$179,900

94.9%

92.3%

54 Days

78 Days

35.5%

49.2%

+13.7%

Conclusion: Other data sources understate time on market and likelihood of requiring a price reduction, while overstating the portion of the original list price (% s/l) that sellers received

Single Family Detached Residences

Keller Williams Realty became the NUMBER 1 real estate company in the Atlanta Metro area in unit sales during 2010, increasing that lead through Full Year 2012

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

7

Single Family Detached Residences

Full Year 2012 Sales rose above those of 2011 by +10.6% 2012 sales are also +28.5% above those of the same period in 2010

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

8

Single Family Detached Residences

Monthly sales were considerably stronger in January through August compared to both of the last two years Sales were also stronger than in the last two years during Sept.-Nov. and should rise somewhat in December after lagged closings are processed

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

9

Single Family Detached Residences
4Q ONLY

Sales in 4Q 2012 were higher than last year in all price ranges except the <$100K range where sales dropped by -29.9% compared to last year, possibly due to very low supply of available properties in that range Increased sales in higher price ranges produces an increase in the median sales price and may encourage homeowners in those ranges to come back into the market
4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty
10

Single Family Detached Residences
• Short Sales and Foreclosure Sales add together to make up Distressed Sales, shown here as a percent of total sales

The percentage of 4Q 2012 distressed sale transactions was -2.6 percentage points lower than in 4Q 2011 and down by -15.5 points from 1Q 2012

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

11

Single Family Detached Residences
4Q ONLY

Shown by price range illustrates the degree to which distressed sales are present in all price groupings More than 2 of every 3 sales in the <$100K price range were distressed property sales during 4Q 2012

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

12

Single Family Detached Residences
• As the number of sales has gradually increased, the number of Active listings has declined steadily since 2Q 2008, down by -73.4% from nearly 40,000 to 10,528 at the end of December, 2012 Lower supply of available listings increases competition among buyers for a smaller number of properties

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

Single Family Detached Residences
• Increasing sales combined with decreasing inventory of listings reduced the months of supply to 4.2 months in December, 2012, reflecting the change from a “Buyer’s Market” to a “Seller’s Market” condition during 2012 Most of the following market measurements show the improvement following this market shift

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

Single Family Detached Residences
• The contract negotiations advantage turned in favor of the seller when supply fell consistently below 6 months during 2012, resulting in an increase in the median sales price as sellers were more able to maintain sales prices closer to their original listing price As seen here, since the supply finally fell below 6 months in 1Q 2012, the median sales price has risen significantly since then, compared to the last 2 years

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

Single Family Detached Residences
• As 4Q 2012 sales were more flat, the median sales price rose by +26.3% bringing 3 straight quarters with median sales prices higher than in the same period last year The Full Year 2012 median was +8.1% above that of 2011

An increase in the percentage of sales in price ranges above $200K resulted in a higher median price
4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

16

Single Family Detached Residences

Median sales prices declined significantly between 1Q 2011 and 1Q 2012, reversing the downtrend after 2Q 2012

As the inventory of listings has remained below 6 months, sellers have been able to maintain higher sales prices and more properties are selling in the higher price ranges

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

17

Single Family Detached Residences

When supply falls below six months, the psychological advantage favors the seller and a “Seller’s Market” results

When supply of properties fell below 6 months in 2012, Sellers were able to negotiate selling prices that were closer to the Original Listing Price than were possible in the “Buyer’s Market” conditions prior to this year

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

Another seller benefit of declining supply has been increasing S/L ratios during the last 5 quarters rising to a new high of 92.7% in 4Q 2012, +6.6 percentage points above that of 4Q 2011 S/L price ratios provide an indication of buyer price resistance and seller willingness to negotiate, with higher ratios showing a stronger seller position

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

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Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

4Q 2012 S/L percentages by price range show that not only was the overall ratio higher compared to last year, but also all price ranges participated with much higher percentages

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

20

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

Higher sales activity in 4Q 2012 lowered the median of Days-OnMarket (DOM) by -27.1% compared to the same period of the previous year

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

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Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

All of these 7 price segments had a median DOM lower in 4Q 2012 than in 4Q 2011

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

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Single Family Detached Residences

The pricing and contract negotiation advantage clearly turned in favor of the seller when supply fell consistently below 6 months during 2012, resulting in the lowest incidence of price reductions we have seen in recent years As shown here, when supply finally fell consistently below 6 months during 2012, the incidence of price reductions also fell consistently compared to prior years

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

The percentage of sales in which the Seller was required to reduce the listing price in order to attract a Buyer, remained well above 60% during the previous 3 years, reaching a high of 70% of transactions during 4Q 2010 and 1Q 2011 and remaining in a range between 62%-70% until 2Q 2012 During 2012 the incidence has fallen in each quarter to a low point in 4Q 2012 of 49%, down by -15 percentage points compared to last year

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

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Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

All price ranges had a lower incidence of price reductions during 4Q 2012 The reduction was greatest in the <$100K range which fell by -20.6 percentage points from 4Q 2011

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

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Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

Price reductions severely reduce the portion of the Original Listing Price that a Seller realizes in a sale
The 4Q 2012 percentage point difference of -14.9 would amount to a net reduction of -$25,500 from the original list price at the median sales price, compared to a Seller without a price reduction

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

26

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

When a price reduction was required, substantially lower S/L ratios occurred in all price ranges in 4Q 2012, but there were large differences in degree among the various price ranges For example, the ratio for a price-reduced property dropped a whopping -28.1 percentage points, below that of a non-price reduced property, in the <$100K range, where in the $300K-$499K range the difference was -9.7 percentage points

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

27

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

When a price reduction is required, more marketing time is needed to attract a buyer A Seller required to take a price reduction in 4Q 2012 needed a median of 168 days to sell, compared to only 27 days for a Seller who priced correctly with the market – a difference of +4.7 months, or +6.2 times, longer to sell The results are higher carrying costs, greater inconvenience due to keeping the house in showing condition and delays in finding and moving to a new home

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

28

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

Higher-priced properties normally take longer to sell, but when a price reduction was necessary in 4Q 2012, the differences were much greater in all price ranges Sellers across these price ranges needed +6.2 times longer to sell when a price reduction was required
Conversely, Sellers pricing their property correctly for the current market, were able to sell in a very reasonable time period – a median of 27 days across all price ranges

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

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Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

What is the REAL STORY?
Many times listed properties will have expired or been withdrawn one or more times prior to the listing period in which they sold. Including the original listing prices and cumulative days on market from those previous listing periods, results in a more realistic set of measurements.

The Real Story
Total Closed Listings
(100%)

92.7 S/L* 79 DOM*

* Medians: Half are
above and half are below

Price Reduced
(49.2% of Total)

No Price Reduction
(50.8% of Total)

83.5% S/L*
168 DOM*

98.4% S/L*
27 DOM*

Previously Listed
(24.6% of Total)

Not Previously Listed
(24.6% of Total)

Previously Listed
(3.6% of Total)

Not Previously Listed
(47.2%Of Total)

77.1% S/L* 296 DOM*
Wrong Price/Wrong Agent

88.1% S/L*

97.8% S/L*

98.5% S/L*

96 DOM*
Right Agent/Wrong Price

154 DOM*
Right Price/Wrong Agent

27 DOM*
Right Price/Right Agent

FMLS SF Detached residences data. Data believed to be accurate, but not warranted. Analysis includes previous listing period data where applicable. © 2012 ChartMaster Services, LLC. For exclusive use of participating Keller Williams Realty offices.

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

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Single Family Detached Residences
• Failed listings (Expired+ Withdrawn) are shown here as a percentage of total “finalized” (Expired+Withdrawn+Closed) listings The failure rate of listings reached a recent peak in January, 2010 at 67% of finalized listings, offering firm evidence of the strong Buyer price resistance that was present in the market, since listings usually fail due to overpricing

Although -13.0 percentage points lower than last year, 35.5% of listings failed to sell during 4Q 2012, more than 1/3 of all finalized listings

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

31

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

We have seen that out of every 100 finalized listings in 4Q 2012, 36 failed to sell and 64 sold Of the 64 sold listings, 31 (49.2%) required a price reduction when including original listing prices for previous listing periods, in order to sell Therefore, if 36 failed to sell due to overpricing and another 31 required a price reduction in order to sell, 67 out of every 100 listings were at least initially overpriced in 4Q 2012, resulting in either no sale, or a sale at a muchreduced price after a muchlonger listing period

FMLS SF Detached residences data. Data believed to be accurate, but not warranted. Analysis includes previous listing period data where applicable. © 2012 ChartMaster Services, LLC. For exclusive use of participating Keller Williams Realty offices.

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

32

Single Family Detached Residences
• Although the overall supply of properties in December, 2012 was at 3.5 months, when Distressed properties are separated out, the picture changes somewhat for nondistressed properties, rising to an 4.6 month level overall, still in the “Seller’s Market” condition On the other hand, distressed properties are well into the Seller’s market condition with overall supply at 1.7 months and at much less than 6 months in all price ranges, while Non-Distressed properties remain in a “Buyer’s Market” condition in price ranges above $500K 4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

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Single Family Detached Residences
Summary
• • • • • Full Year 2012 Sales: +10.6 higher than in 2011
• • Monthly sales increased in nearly each month this year compared to the same period in each of the last two years Distressed sales were lower at 39.4% of 4Q 2012 sales , but were 69.0% of sales in the <$100K price range

Sales Prices: Median higher by +26.3% in 4Q 2012 compared to 4Q 2011, up by +8.1% for the full year Percent S/L price: Median 92.7%, +6.6 percentage points higher compared to 4Q 2011 Days on Market: 78 Days, down by -27.1% in 4Q 2012 compared to 4Q 2011 Price Reductions: Lower – at 49.2% of 4Q 2012 transactions, -15.1 percentage points lower than in 4Q 2011
• • • A large drop in % S/L ratio occurred when a price reduction was taken (-14.9 percentage points in 4Q 2012) <$100K price range impact of price reductions on S/L ratio was greater (-28.1 percentage points) than for other price ranges DOM effect – +4.7 months longer (+6.2 times) needed to sell after a price reduction in 4Q 2012

• • •

Failed Listings: 35.5% of listings in 4Q 2012, down by -13.0 percentage points from 4Q 2011 Overpriced Listings: 67% of listings overpriced in 4Q 2012 Supply: Decreased by -43% from December, 2011 to 3.5 months of supply in December, 2012
– – Non-distressed Properties priced below $500K are in a “Seller’s Market” condition Distressed properties in all price ranges are at or below 5.5 months of inventory, 1.1 months for <$100K Distressed

FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2012 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

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Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

Another market shift is occurring. During 4Q 2012 we saw confirmation of a change from a market driven down by Distressed Property sales, to one driven up by reduced supply. This caused a fundamental change in the psychology of the market from a “Buyer’s Market” to a “Seller’s Market” environment. The results are that many of our usual market measurements have turned in the direction of market recovery. Significant positive changes occurred in the median sales price (+23.6%), median S/OLP percentage (+6.6 percentage points), median DOM (-27.1%), incidence of price reductions (-15 percentage points) and percentage of failed listings (-13.0 percentage points) during this quarter. However, even as these improvements were taking place, the percentage of distressed property sales remained high (39.4%) and the number of Active listings continued to fall. These conditions should also be considered by sellers when setting listing prices. Continued distressed property sales maintain a dampening effect on seller flexibility by their use as comparables in property price evaluations. With our uncertain economy, short term housing market improvements should still be viewed cautiously. A sharp increase in the number of Active listings or distressed property inventory, or a decrease in sales, could expose the fragile nature of this improvement. But for now at least, Sellers should find less pressure during contract negotiations and Buyers will see a more competitive market with fewer sellers willing to accept low-price offers.
FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2012 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.

Summary

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

Single Family Detached Residences
The Story of the Detached Residence Market – 4Q 2012

• Overall Market Observations

– – –

The 4Q 2012 market has shifted toward recovery. “Seller’s Market” supply levels have overcome the effects of Distressed Properties on many of our measures of market condition. Indicators of an improving market were in evidence, such as a higher median sales price (+26.3%), increased sales (+10.6% YTD), a new high point for the median S/L ratio (92.7%), many fewer failed listings (-13.0 points), lower median DOM (78, -27.1%), fewer price reductions (-15.1 points) and much lower (-43%) supply of active listings. A deterrent to full market recovery continues, however, with a significant distressed properties percentage of both Sales (39.4%) and currently Active listings (18.8%) that can cause buyers to seek those lower-priced alternatives when distressed properties appear to be a better value. This caused 49% of sellers to take listing price reductions in order to sell and 35.5% of all 4Q 2012 listings fail to sell during their listing period. The low (1.7 months) inventory of distressed properties has likely increased competition among buyers, forcing prices higher, S/L ratios higher, DOM lower and fewer listings failing to sell. It is difficult to know whether or not this will attract more people to list properties now which could alter the supply/demand relationship at a time when seasonal factors usually cause lower demand. If so, that could result in another reversal of many of these positive 4Q 2012 market characteristics. Another dampening factor could result if financial institutions release more distressed properties to the market.

FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2012 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

36

Single Family Detached Residences
The Story of the Detached Residence Market – 4Q 2012

• Importance to Non- Distressed Property Sellers


– –

Potential sellers who have been reluctant to list due to the slow market may now try to take advantage of the current supply/demand shift to list their property while they have an advantage. The downward pressure from Distressed properties on selling prices for all properties has been somewhat offset by lower inventory, so this could be a better time to sell than in recent periods. The reduced inventory of distressed properties has increased buyer competition for those properties making it even more important for sellers to consider their effect in properly pricing non-distressed properties. Setting realistic initial listing prices that are in line with buyer expectations (in the market) can result in sales at or above the original listing price in very few days on market

• Importance to Buyers
– – – – The supply/demand relationship has, at least temporarily, shifted to the seller’s advantage. If that continues, fast action and realistic offers will be necessary for buyers to capitalize on still-low prices for available properties. For buyers who are interested only in distressed properties, the supply has dropped to a point where competition among buyers for that supply has jumped, making realistic offers is a must for desirable houses Quick action and serious offers are required when high-value properties are found (47.2 % of 4Q sales), since low median DOM and high S/L ratios usually result, often with multiple offer situations. The good news is that prices are still historically low and interest rates are too, so the if the right property is found, this is a very good time to be in the market
FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2012 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

37

Single Family Detached Residences
The Story of the Detached Residence Market – 4Q 2012

• Success Strategies for Sellers
– – – Do not ignore the impact of distressed properties competing for buyers in seller’s price range and location, when setting initial listing price, since they are still affecting comps Maximize selling price and minimize market time by choosing an initial listing price that represents a high value compared to competing listings Re-evaluate market trends continuously to re-assess pricing choice – avoid chasing the market or missing a turn

• Consequences of Wrong Seller Choices
– – – – Sell only after a much longer time on market - Median DOM at least +6.2 times longer in 4Q 2012. Sale at a much lower portion of original listing price – median of at least -14.9 percentage points lower. Failure to sell – 35.5% of listings failed to sell in 4Q 2012. Multiple listing periods – 24.6% of sellers required multiple listing periods, selling at a median of -21.4 percentage points lower after a median of +12.9 times longer (+9.1 months).

• Risks for Buyers
– Low-ball offers on high-value properties will likely result in missing out on a great opportunity. – Making offers too high on properties listed multiple times could result in paying too much. – Low inventory condition limits buyer’s advantage in contract negotiations.
FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2012 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

38

The Case for Getting it Right the First Time
Desired Seller Price
$
330,000 Listed Price
X_______ % 87.5
Median L/SP% ___Quarter

(Illustration using $300K-$499K price reduction numbers)

Suggested Market Price
$
300,000 Listed Price
97.2 X_______%

(Used S/L %’s for this price range)

$

288,750 Sales Price

$

291,600 Sales Price

(Used DOM’s for this price range)
Median DOM

Required ____Days 166

___Quarter

Required ____Days 32

Summary
30,000 Even though the Suggested Price is $__________________ Lower than the Desired Price, the

+$2,850 -4.5 Faster Sale Nets the Seller $____________________ More and Saves__________Months in Time
39

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

The Keller Williams culture of cooperation and our profit sharing model contribute to crosspromotion of our listings among company agents and offices resulting in greater listings exposure for our customers

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

40

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

When a price reduction was required, substantially lower S/L ratios occurred in all price ranges in 4Q 2012, but there were large differences in degree among the various price ranges For example, the ratio for a price-reduced property dropped a whopping -28.1 percentage points, below that of a non-price reduced property, in the <$100K range, where the difference was -9.7 percentage points in the $300K-$499K range

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

41

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

Higher-priced properties normally take longer to sell, but when a price reduction was necessary in 4Q 2012, the differences were much greater in all price ranges Sellers across these price ranges needed +6.2 times longer to sell when a price reduction was required
Conversely, Sellers pricing their property correctly for the current market, were able to sell in a very reasonable time period – a median of 27 days across all price ranges

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

42

The Case for Getting it Right The First Time
(Middle Tier)

Seller Desired List Price $330,000
(Click and Enter Prices in Each Box)

Suggested Market Price $300,000 97.2% Likely % Sale/List Price $291,600 Likely Sales Price 32 Likely Days on Market

87.5% Likely % Sale/List Price $288,750 Likely Sales Price 166 Likely Days on Market

Benefits Summary
Even though the List Price Difference is:

-$30,000 Lower $2,850 More In Your Pocket -134 Fewer Days -4.5 Fewer Months
43

The Likely Sales Price Difference is:

The likely Time on Market is:

Months of Difference in Time on Market is:

The Case for Getting it Right the First Time
Desired Seller Price
$ Listed Price
X_______ %
Median L/SP% ___Quarter

Suggested Market Price
$ Listed Price
X_______%

$

Sales Price

$

Sales Price

Median DOM

Required ____Days

___Quarter

Required ____Days

Summary
Even though the Suggested Price is $__________________ Lower than the Desired Price, the Faster Sale Nets the Seller $____________________ More and Saves__________Months in Time
44

45

Single Family Detached Residences

Monthly sales history shows the pattern of sales downturn from 2007 illustrating a bottom occurring in January of 2010
Since then the usual seasonal low points in January were higher in both 2011 and 2012 and a sustained upward trend has developed

Government purchase incentive programs effect

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

46

Single Family Detached Residences
• 4Q 2012 sales were slightly lower compared to the same period last year, but should be somewhat above this when lagged sales are processed Sales gains in 3Q and 4Q 2011 were exaggerated due to comparison with the same periods in 2010 which were unusually low after government purchase incentives expiration Increases in 1Q, 2Q and 3Q 2012 were all the more significant since they are compared to periods of increase during 2011 Quarterly increases have been lower in each consecutive quarter during 2012

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

47

Single Family Detached Residences
4Q ONLY

Sales were lower in the <$100K price, keeping the overall change flat so far in 4Q 2012

4Q 2012 Sales
$100<$100K $199K NEW
18 (-47%) 2,611 222 (+9%) 2,736 (+8%) 2,958 (+8%)

$200$299K
276 (+28%) 1,340 (+35%) 1,616 (+34%)

$300499K
216 (+28%) 1,100 (+27%) 1,316 (+27%)

$500$749K
63 (+62%) 338 (+17%) 401 (+22%)

$750$999K $1.0M+
15 (+88%) 93 (+22%) 108 (+29%) 13 (+117%) 106 (+96%) 119 (+98%)

Total
823 (+22%) 8,324 (-2%) 9,147 (0%)

All price ranges above $100K had increased sales compared to 4Q 2011
New properties were 9% of 4Q sales

RESALE (-30%) TOTAL
2,629 (-30%)

Comparison to 4Q 2011: Better Same Worse

FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2012 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

48

Single Family Detached Residences

While sales have increased during 2012, the number of Active listings fell again, continuing the declining trend through this period The number of Distressed property listings has now begun to decline also, helping to reduce pricing pressure on NonDistressed sellers

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

49

Single Family Detached Residences
4Q ONLY

As the total number of all Active listings has declined, Distressed property listings represent a declining percentage of those listings

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

50

Single Family Detached Residences

Foreclosure sales as a percent of total sales declined again in 4Q 2012 compared to 4Q 2011, to 12.3%

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

51

Single Family Detached Residences
4Q ONLY

The overall percentage of foreclosures was lower in 4Q 2012 than in the same period in 2011, declining in all price ranges

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

52

Single Family Detached Residences

The 4Q 2012 short sale percentage of closings at 27.1% was +2.1 percentage points higher than in 4Q 2011, continuing the overall uptrend in these types of transactions

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

53

Single Family Detached Residences
4Q ONLY

Short Sale transactions as a percentage of total sales increased slightly during 4Q 2012 However, the increase came from price ranges below $200K, with decreases occurring in all other price ranges

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

54

Single Family Detached Residences
4Q ONLY

The median sales price is derived by taking the point at which half of the transactions were at prices above and half below that price
Therefore, when there are more sales taking place at the low price end of the market, the median must fall lower since more sales occur in those lower price ranges The 61.1% of sales which occurred in 4Q 2012 at prices <$200K was -10.4 percentage points lower than in the same period last year, causing a higher median sales price 4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty
55

Single Family Detached Residences
Previous Listing Periods Included FULL YEAR

Historically, as sales shifted more toward lower price ranges after 2007, the median sales prices were forced down The median sales price is the price at which half of sales are at higher prices and half are at lower prices As larger portions of annual sales took place at lower prices (<$200K), the median sales price dropped accordingly, now with those percentages declining, the median sales price is rising

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

56

Single Family Detached Residences

Monthly median sales prices reached a low point in January, 2012
The steep decline in median sales prices coincided with increases in the percentage of distressed properties sold A strong, steady increase during 2012 has resulted from a much lower supply of listings and an increase in the portion of sales at prices above $200K

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

57

Single Family Detached Residences

New Construction properties posted their 2nd consecutive quarterly median sales price increase, the first such increases since 2Q 2011, while resale properties also increased +26.5% The median sales price for Resale properties has now increased for 3 consecutive quarters

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

58

Single Family Detached Residences

An encouraging sign for sellers in this market is that the median sales price for Non-Distressed properties has increased sharply since 4Q 2011 Although seasonality usually causes the median sales price to increase during the second quarter each year, we are now seeing that increase carry on through 4Q 2012 indicating that a more sustained increase is resulting from the Seller’s Market supply condition

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

59

Single Family Detached Residences

Median Sales Prices shown monthly, by year, illustrates the degree to which prices are changing now compared to other recent years The December, 2012 median sales price was above those of December, 2009-11

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

60

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

Median S/L ratios shown monthly since January, 2008 reveals that the bottom for this measure came during early 2009, with an overall uptrend in process since then The % S/L uptrend has increased in strength as property supply has declined

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

61

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

Median S/L ratios tended to be much lower for distressed property sales than for non-distressed properties during late 2008 and early 2009, but sellers adjusted to buyer price resistance during the last half of 2009 and into the first half of 2010 Beginning in 2011 distressed property S/L ratios grew until becoming equal or above that of nondistressed properties as supply of distressed properties dwindled

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

62

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

4Q 2012 Median Days on Market
• The median of DOM segmented by Sales Price and New vs. Resale, shows a -27% overall decrease in time-onmarket spread over all but one segment
$100<$100K $199K $200$299K $300499K $500$749K $750$999K $1.0M+ Total

NEW

197 Days 92 Days 100 Days 100 Days 86 Days 126 Days 256 Days 99 Days -35% -51% -13% -25% -20% +58% -29% -29%

RESALE

56 Days -33%

73 Days -35%

88 Days -32%
91 Days -28%

96 Days 106 Days 164 Days 202 Days 76 Days -27% -22% -17% -3% -28%
97 Days 105 Days 151 Days 203 Days 78 Days -26% -22% -21% -8% -27%

TOTAL

56 Days 75 Days -34% -36%

Comparison to 4Q 2012: Better Same Worse

FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2012 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

63

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

Sellers contributed to buyers’ closing costs in nearly 3 of every 4 transactions during the last 2 years, reducing the real S/L ratio Sellers should anticipate this payment when estimating net proceeds of sale

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

64

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

When sellers contributions to buyer closing costs are included, the real median S/L ratio dropped by -1.01.3 percentage points during 2012 to an overall 90.0% of Original List Price compared to the 91.1% usually shown

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

65

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

Even after taking a price reduction, Sellers realized a lesser portion of their new list price than those Sellers who were not required to reduce their price Had these price-reduced properties been correctly priced originally, they could likely have sold in much less time at a higher price

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

66

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED 4Q ONLY

Even after taking a price reduction, Sellers usually realized an equal, or lesser, portion of their new, reduced list price than those Sellers not required to reduce their price Pricing correctly with the current market results in a better net selling price, in less time on market

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

67

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

Correctly pricing with the current market can result in multiple offers and sales prices at or above the Original Listing Price
In 4Q 2012, more than 1 out of every 5 (22.6%) sales transactions resulted in selling prices that were equal to or higher than the original listing price

2,065 properties sold at 100%, or more, of their Original Listing price during 4Q 2012

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

68

Single Family Detached Residences
PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS INCLUDED

Sellers pricing correctly for the market not only receive a high portion of their Original Listing Price, they also sell at greatly reduced time on market resulting in substantial savings through lower carrying costs

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

69

Single Family Detached Residences

Atlanta Market
Only 33% of the 4Q 2012 Atlanta housing inventory was initially priced “in the market”

Above
36%

Price vs. Competition
31%

Out of The Market
Homes that Don’t Sell

Below
In the Market
Houses that Sell in a median of 27 days

Chased The 33% Market

36%

Condition vs. Competition

Great

Poor
70

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

Single Family Detached Residences

The number of months of supply vary widely among market segments defined by price range and New vs. Resale properties Overall the supply was -43% lower in December, 2012 than in the same month in 2011 resulting from a lower inventory of properties in all price ranges, coupled with higher sales Inventory in the <$100K range is extremely low and all price ranges under $500K are in a Seller’s Market condition for Resale properties

December, 2012 Months’ Supply of Listings
(Using 3-mos moving average of sales)

$100- $200K- $300K- $500K- $750K<$100K $199K $299K 499K $749K $999K $1.0M+
NEW 3.4 Months 0% 1.7 Months -53% 1.7 Months -53% 3.0 Months -58% 2.6 Months -56% 2.7 Months -56% 4.5 Months -27% 4.4 Months -50% 4.4 Months -47% 6.0 Months -19% 4.7 Months -44% 4.9 Months -41% 8.6 Months -32% 7.9 Months -29% 8.1 Months -29% 14.1 Months -56% 9.0 Months -40% 9.7 Months -40% 20.5 Months -45% 13.9 Months -53% 14.5 Months -52%

Total
5.1 Months -31% 3.3 Months -45% 3.5 Months -43%

RESALE

TOTAL

Comparison to December, 2012: Better Same Worse

FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2012 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

71

Single Family Detached Residences
• Viewing overall supply against the industry benchmark for a “balanced” market shows that current levels in price ranges above $500K remain in a “Buyer’s Market” condition, while those below $500K enjoy a seller’s market Very low supply in the high volume price ranges below $200K resulted in a very low overall supply of 3.5 months in December, 2012

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

72

Single Family Detached Residences

A comparison of supply by price range between December, 2012 and December, 2011 shows the extent to which the Supply/Demand environment has changed Significant reductions occurred in all price ranges with the supply across all price ranges, dropping by 43% compared to December, 2011

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

73

Single Family Detached Residences
• The number of properties listed for sale compared to the number of properties which sold each month, illustrates the relationship existing between Supply (listings) and Demand (sales) Using a 3-month average of 4Q 2012 sales yields a 3.5 month supply, meaning that at the current sales rate, it would take less than 4 months to sell the current inventory of listings if no new listings came on the market A supply of more than 6-7 months is considered to be a Buyer’s market 4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty
74

Single Family Detached Residences
Previous Listing Periods Included FULL YEAR

Conventional Uninsured and Cash purchases were 61.0% of all purchases through December, 2012, with cash being the mostoften used method of financing

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

75

Single Family Detached Residences
Previous Listing Periods Included FULL YEAR

Two of every three cash purchases were of distressed properties in 2012

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

76

Single Family Detached Residences
Previous Listing Periods Included FULL YEAR

4Q 2012 sales of luxury homes priced above $1.0M was +50% higher than that of 4Q 2011 with a combined 119 sales

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

77

Single Family Detached Residences

4Q 2012 Median DOM for sales in the $1.0M-$1.49M price range were about the same as in 4Q 2011, while the median for the $1.5M+ range was -46.6% lower compared to 4Q last year The small number of sales in these price ranges makes percentage changes more volatile

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

78

Single Family Detached Residences
Previous Listing Periods Included FULL YEAR

Median S/L price ratio for the $1.0-$1.49M price range was +7.7 percentage points higher at 85.4% and those in the $1.5M+ range were higher also by +4.3 points The median S/L ratio for all sales was 92.7% in 4Q 2012

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

79

Single Family Detached Residences
Previous Listing Periods Included FULL YEAR

Price reductions also tend to be more common as property prices increase
Improved in 4Q 2012, the incidence of price reductions was down -1.3 percentage points in the $1.0-$1.49M range, while the $1.5M+ range dropped by -17.9 percentage points

The percentage of price reductions for sales across all price ranges in 4Q 2012 was 49.2%

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

80

Single Family Detached Residences
Previous Listing Periods Included FULL YEAR

The difficulty of selling luxury homes priced above $1.0M in this market is underscored by the percentage of sales that required more than one listing period, compared to the overall sales percentage of 24.6% that were listed multiple times during 4Q 2012, roughly half the rate in these price ranges The results of initial overpricing are usually longer DOM, lower S/L %, more Price reductions and multiple listing periods, ending in much lower selling prices 4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

81

Single Family Detached Residences
Previous Listing Periods Included FULL YEAR

Although to a much lesser degree in both of these price ranges, Distressed property sales are present in all price ranges in this market

During 2012, the distressed percentages of sales were fairly constant below 12% in both years
Prices of non-distressed properties may be affected in these price ranges as well, when buyers’ agents, lenders and appraisers use them as comps

4Q 2012 Quarterly Metro Market Report Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

82

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