DECE M B E R

QUAR T E R

2012

5625.0

PRIVATE NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE AND EXPECTED EXPENDITURE A U S T R A L I A
EMBAR G O : 11.3 0 A M (CAN B E R R A TIME) THUR S 28 FEB 2013

New Capital Expenditure
in Volume terms
Trend Seasonally Adjusted

KEY
$b 44

FIG U R E S
Dec Qtr 12 $m Sep Qtr 12 to Dec Qtr 12 % change Dec Qtr 11 to Dec Qtr 12 % change

Trend estimates (a)
38

Total new capital expenditure Buildings and structures Equipment, plant and machinery Seasonally adjusted (a)

41 385 25 951 15 428

0.1 –0.6 1.3

8.8 10.9 5.0

31

25 Dec 2008 Dec Dec Dec 2009 2010 2011 Dec 2012

Total new capital expenditure Buildings and structures Equipment, plant and machinery

40 988 25 783 15 205

–1.2 –0.6 –2.3

10.0 14.2 3.5

(a)

In volume terms

KEY
!

POI N T S

ACTUA L EXPE N D I T U R E (VOL U M E TERM S ) The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure rose 0.1% in the December quarter 2012 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 1.2%.
!

The trend volume estimate for buildings and structures fell 0.6% in the December quarter 2012 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.6%.

!

The trend volume estimate for equipment, plant and machinery rose 1.3% in the December quarter 2012 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 2.3%.

EXPE C T E D EXPE N D I T U R E (CUR R E N T PRIC E TERM S )
!

This issue includes the fifth estimate (Estimate 5) for 2012-13 and the first estimate (Estimate 1) for 2013-14.

I N Q U I R I E S
For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Liz Bolzan on Sydney (02) 9268 4508.

!

Estimate 5 for 2012-13 is $168,235m. This is 4.0% higher than Estimate 5 for 2011-12. Estimate 5 is 1.3% lower than Estimate 4 for 2012-13.

! !

Estimate 1 for 2013-14 is $152,494m. This is 8.1% lower than Estimate 1 for 2012-13. See pages 7 to 10 for further commentary on expectations data.

w w w. a b s . g o v. a u

NO T E S

FORT H C O M I N G ISSU E S

ISSUE (Quarter)

RELEASE DATE

March 2013 June 2013 September 2013 December 2013

30 May 2013 29 August 2013 28 November 2013 27 February 2014

CHAN GE S IN THIS ISSU E

!

As happens each December quarter, the Survey of Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure produces expected capital expenditure data by state. These data are available from the Downloads tab of this issue on the ABS website.

REVISIO N S

!

The September quarter 2012 estimate for total capital expenditure has been revised downwards $763 million (-1.9%) in current price, original terms. The revision was due to updated information received from survey respondents for Mining and Manufacturing. Within the total revision, equipment, plant and machinery has been revised downwards $66 million (-0.5%) and buildings and structures has been revised downwards $697 million (-2.6%). Revisions to seasonally adjusted estimates are due to revisions to original estimates as well as the concurrent methodology for deriving seasonal factors.

SUPP R E S S I O N OF DAT A

!

The ABS has suppressed the release of some data in the December quarter release of 5625.0. Tables affected include electronic tables 10A and 10B; Actual and Expected Capital Expenditure by Asset - Western Australia Current Prices, and Actual and Expected Capital Expenditure by Industry - Western Australia Current Prices. The data items affected include original current price estimates of: Short Term Expected Expenditure - Buildings and Structures Short Term Expected Expenditure - Total Long Term Expected Expenditure - Buildings and Structures Long Term Expected Expenditure - Total Short Term Expected Expenditure - Mining Short Term Expected Expenditure - Total Long Term Expected Expenditure - Mining Long Term Expected Expenditure - Total

ABBR E V I A T I O N S

ABN Australian Business Number ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics ANZSIC Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification PAYGW pay-as-you-go withholding SNA08 System of National Accounts 2008 version TAU type of activity unit

Bria n Pink Austr a l i a n Sta t i s t i c i a n

2

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CONT E N T S

page
COMME N T A R Y

Actual new capital expenditure, In volume terms Actual and expected new capital expenditure
TABLES

.......................4 .........................7

ACTUA L AND EXPE C T E D EXPE N D I T U R E

1 2 3 4

Actual and expected expenditure, By type of asset and industry, Current prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Actual and expected expenditure, By detailed industry, Current prices Actual expenditure, By type of asset and industry, Chain volume measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

......... .... ........ .....

11 12 14 15

Actual expenditure, By type of asset and industry, Percentage change, Chain volume measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FINAN C I A L YEAR EXPE N D I T U R E

5 6 7

Expected expenditure and realisation ratios, By type of asset, Current prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ratios of actual to short term expectations, By type of asset and industry, Current prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Expected expenditure and realisation ratios, By industry, Current prices .

..... ...

16 17 18

.........

STATE ESTI M A T E S

8 9 10 11 12 13
ADDI T I O N A L INFO R M A T I O N

Actual expenditure on buildings and structures, By state, Current prices . Actual expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery, By state, Current prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Actual total expenditure, By state, Current prices

...

19 20 21 22 23 24

....... ................. ....

Actual expenditure on buildings and structures, By state, Chain volume measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Actual expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery, By state, Chain volume measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Actual total expenditure, By state, Chain volume measures

....... ...........

............................. Explanatory Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Appendix: Sampling errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
What if...? Revisions to trend estimates

25 26 34

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3

AC T U A L NE W CA P I T A L EX P E N D I T U R E IN VOLU ME TERMS

TOTAL CAPIT AL EXPE N D I T U R E

The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure rose 0.1% in the December quarter 2012. By asset type, the trend estimate for buildings and structures fell 0.6% while equipment, plant and machinery rose 1.3%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total new capital expenditure fell 1.2% in the December quarter 2012.
$m 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012

Trend Seasonally Adjusted

BUIL D I N G S AND STR U C T U R E S

The trend estimate for buildings and structures fell 0.6% in the December quarter 2012. Buildings and structures for Mining rose 1.3%, while Manufacturing fell 22.6% and Other Selected Industries fell 3.3%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for buildings and structures fell 0.6% in the December quarter 2012. Mining rose 2.9%, while Manufacturing fell 6.4% and Other Selected Industries fell 11.6% in seasonally adjusted terms.
$m 27000 24000 21000 18000 15000 12000 9000 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012

Trend Seasonally Adjusted

4

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A C T U A L N E W C A P I T A L E X P E N D I T U R E I N V O L U M E T E R M S continued

EQU I P M E N T , PLAN T AND MACH I N E R Y

The trend estimate for equipment, plant and machinery rose 1.3% in the December quarter 2012. Equipment, plant and machinery for Mining rose 5.9%, while Manufacturing fell 1.4% and Other Selected Industries fell 0.3%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for equipment, plant and machinery fell 2.3% in the December quarter 2012. Mining rose 2.5%, Manufacturing rose 0.1% while Other Selected Industries fell 4.9% in seasonally adjusted terms.
$m 17000 15750 14500 13250 12000 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012

Trend Seasonally Adjusted

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

5

A C T U A L N E W C A P I T A L E X P E N D I T U R E I N V O L U M E T E R M S continued

MIN I N G

The trend estimate for Mining rose 2.3% in the December quarter 2012. Buildings and structures rose 1.3% and equipment, plant and machinery rose 5.9%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for Mining rose 2.9% in the December quarter 2012. Buildings and structures rose 2.9% and equipment, plant and machinery rose 2.5% in seasonally adjusted terms.
$m 26000 20750 15500 10250 5000 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012

Trend Seasonally Adjusted

MAN U F A C T U R I N G

The trend estimate for Manufacturing fell 8.1% in the December quarter 2012. Buildings and structures fell 22.6% and equipment, plant and machinery fell 1.4%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for Manufacturing fell 2.0% in the December quarter 2012. Buildings and structures fell 6.4% while equipment, plant and machinery rose 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms.
$m 4000 3640 3280 2920 2560 2200 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012

Trend Seasonally Adjusted

OTHE R SELEC T E D INDU ST R I E S

The trend estimate for Other Selected Industries fell 1.5% in the December quarter 2012. Buildings and structures fell 3.3% and equipment, plant and machinery fell 0.3%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for Other Selected Industries fell 7.5% in the December quarter 2012. Buildings and structures fell 11.6% and equipment, plant and machinery fell 4.9% in seasonally adjusted terms.
$m 16000 15500 15000 14500 14000 13500 13000 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012

Trend Seasonally Adjusted

6

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ACTUA L AND EXPEC T E D NEW CAPIT A L EXPEN D I T U R E

FINAN C I A L YEAR S AT CUR R E N T PRICE S

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in Tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraph 26 to 29 of the Explanatory Notes. The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:

TOTAL CAPIT AL EXPE N D I T U R E

Estimate 5 for total capital expenditure for 2012-13 is $168,235 million. This is 4.0% higher than Estimate 5 for 2011-12. The main contributor to this increase was Mining (13.9%). Estimate 5 is 1.3% lower than Estimate 4 for 2012-13. The main contributor to this decrease was Mining (-2.7%). Estimate 1 for total capital expenditure for 2013-14 is $152,494 million. This is 8.1% lower than Estimate 1 for 2012-13. The main contributor to this decrease was Mining (-11.6%).

$ billion 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1234567 2008-2009 1234567 2009-2010 1234567 2010-2011 1234567 2011-2012 1234567 2012-2013 1 2 3 4 567 2013-2014
Expected full year Actual year to date

$ billion 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

7

A C T U A L A N D E X P E C T E D N E W C A P I T A L E X P E N D I T U R E continued

BUIL D I N G S AND STR U C T U R E S

Estimate 5 for buildings and structures for 2012-13 is $115,301 million. This is 8.0% higher than Estimate 5 for 2011-12. The main contributor to this increase was Mining (15.6%). Estimate 5 for buildings and structures is 2.0% lower than Estimate 4 for 2012-13. The main contributor to this decrease was Mining (-2.2%). Estimate 1 for buildings and structures for 2013-14 is $111,793 million. This is 6.6% lower than Estimate 1 for 2012-13. The main contributor to this decrease was Mining (-8.9%).

$ billion 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1234567 2008-2009 1234567 2009-2010 1234567 2010-2011 1234567 2011-2012 1234567 2012-2013 1 2 3 4 567 2013-2014
Expected full year Actual year to date

$ billion 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

EQU I P M E N T , PLAN T AND MACH I N E R Y

Estimate 5 for equipment, plant and machinery for 2012-13 is $52,934 million. This is 3.6% lower than Estimate 5 for 2011-12. The main contributors to this decrease were Other Selected Industries (-4.1%) and Manufacturing (-17.8%). Estimate 5 for equipment, plant and machinery is 0.4% higher than Estimate 4 for 2012-13. The main contributor to this increase was Other Selected Industries (4.9%). Estimate 1 for equipment, plant and machinery for 2013-14 is $40,701 million. This is 12.0% lower than Estimate 1 for 2012-13. The main contributor to this decrease was Mining (-27.9%).

$ billion 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1234567 2008-2009 1234567 2009-2010 1234567 2010-2011 1234567 2011-2012 1234567 2012-2013 1 2 3 4 567 2013-2014
Expected full year Actual year to date

$ billion 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

8

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A C T U A L A N D E X P E C T E D N E W C A P I T A L E X P E N D I T U R E continued

MIN I N G

Estimate 5 for Mining for 2012-13 is $105,096 million. This is 13.9% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2011-12. Estimate 5 is 2.7% lower than Estimate 4 for 2012-13. Buildings and structures is 2.2% lower and equipment, plant and machinery is 5.7% lower than the corresponding fourth estimates for 2012-13. Estimate 1 for Mining for 2013-14 is $100,204 million. This is 11.6% lower than the corresponding estimate for 2012-13. Buildings and structures is 8.9% lower and equipment, plant and machinery is 27.9% lower than the corresponding first estimates for 2012-13.

$ billion 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1234567 2008-2009 1234567 2009-2010 1234567 2010-2011 1234567 2011-2012 1234567 2012-2013 1 2 3 4 567 2013-2014
Expected full year Actual year to date

$ billion 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

MAN U F A C T U R I N G

Estimate 5 for Manufacturing for 2012-13 is $9,429 million. This is 31.7% lower than the corresponding estimate for 2011-12. Estimate 5 is 6.4% lower than Estimate 4 for 2012-13. Buildings and structures is 9.2% lower and equipment, plant and machinery is 4.9% lower than the corresponding fourth estimates for 2012-13. Estimate 1 for Manufacturing for 2013-14 is $7,920 million. This is 23.5% lower than the corresponding estimate for 2012-13. Buildings and structures is 36.0% lower and equipment, plant and machinery is 13.8% lower than the corresponding first estimates for 2012-13.

$ billion 20
Expected full year Actual year to date

$ billion 20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

1234567 2008-2009

1234567 2009-2010

1234567 2010-2011

1234567 2011-2012

1234567 2012-2013

1 2 3 4 567 2013-2014

0

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9

A C T U A L A N D E X P E C T E D N E W C A P I T A L E X P E N D I T U R E continued

OTHE R SELEC T E D INDU ST R I E S

Estimate 5 for Other Selected Industries for 2012-13 is $53,710 million. This is 3.5% lower than the corresponding estimate for 2011-12. The main contributor to this decrease was Transport, Postal and Warehousing (-18.9%). Estimate 5 is 2.8% higher than Estimate 4 for 2012-13. Buildings and structures is 0.1% higher and equipment, plant and machinery is 4.9% higher than the corresponding fourth estimates for 2012-13. Estimate 1 for Other Selected Industries for 2013-14 is $44,371 million. This is 5.3% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2012-13. The main contributors to this increase were Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services (20.4%) and Transport, Postal and Warehousing (12.0%). Buildings and structures is 12.9% higher while equipment, plant and machinery is 0.5% lower than the corresponding first estimates for 2012-13.

$ billion 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1234567 2008-2009 1234567 2009-2010 1234567 2010-2011 1234567 2011-2012 1234567 2012-2013 1 2 3 4 567 2013-2014
Expected full year Actual year to date

$ billion 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

10

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1

ACT U A L AND EX P E C T E D EX P E N D I T U R E , By ty p e of as s e t an d in d u s t r y — Cu r r e n t pri c e s

BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES Other Manu- Selected facturing Industries
$m $m

EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY Other Selected Industries
$m

TOTAL Other Selected Industries
$m

Mining Pe r i o d
$m

Total
$m

Mining
$m

Manufacturing
$m

Total
$m

Mining
$m

Manufacturing
$m

Total
$m

ORIG I N A L (A ctua l ) 2010–11 2011–12 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
36 878 68 284 14 468 16 431 16 645 20 739 19 731 21 830 4 911 5 903 1 554 1 694 1 347 1 309 772 867 24 254 23 926 5 990 6 285 5 462 6 189 5 765 5 543 66 044 98 113 22 011 24 411 23 454 28 236 26 268 28 241 9 968 13 712 2 829 3 508 2 967 4 408 3 945 4 765 7 432 7 323 1 846 1 976 1 533 1 968 1 526 1 818 35 897 35 693 8 797 10 116 7 755 9 024 8 545 9 303 53 297 56 728 13 472 15 601 12 255 15 401 14 016 15 887 46 847 81 997 17 298 19 940 19 612 25 147 23 676 26 595 12 343 13 226 3 399 3 671 2 880 3 277 2 297 2 685 60 151 59 618 14 786 16 402 13 218 15 213 14 311 14 847 119 341 154 841 35 483 40 012 35 709 43 637 40 284 44 127

O R I G I N A L ( E x p e c t e d ) (a) 2012–13 6 mths to Jun Total fin year 2013–14 12 mths to Jun
48 079 89 640 88 259 1 519 3 158 2 907 11 194 22 503 20 627 60 792 115 301 111 793 6 746 15 456 11 945 2 927 6 271 5 013 13 358 31 207 23 743 23 031 52 934 40 701 54 825 105 096 100 204 4 447 9 429 7 920 24 552 53 710 44 371 83 823 168 235 152 494

SEASO N A L L Y ADJU S T E D (A ctua l ) 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
14 616 15 420 18 291 20 070 19 882 20 500 1 668 1 526 1 452 1 265 833 780 6 191 6 024 6 137 5 613 6 012 5 329 22 476 22 970 25 880 26 948 26 726 26 608 3 051 3 188 3 486 3 941 4 232 4 340 2 012 1 811 1 751 1 763 1 667 1 665 9 216 9 143 8 837 8 558 8 916 8 385 14 279 14 142 14 074 14 262 14 816 14 390 17 667 18 608 21 776 24 011 24 114 24 840 3 681 3 336 3 203 3 028 2 500 2 445 15 407 15 167 14 974 14 171 14 928 13 713 36 755 37 112 39 954 41 211 41 542 40 999

TREN D (A ctua l ) 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
13 668 16 127 18 160 19 424 20 221 20 579 1 565 1 582 1 437 1 194 951 738 6 166 6 081 5 994 5 867 5 708 5 532 21 399 23 790 25 590 26 485 26 881 26 849 3 024 3 243 3 535 3 881 4 179 4 411 1 803 1 794 1 772 1 733 1 693 1 663 9 166 9 023 8 889 8 742 8 645 8 554 14 079 14 122 14 209 14 349 14 517 14 617 16 692 19 371 21 695 23 305 24 400 24 989 3 368 3 376 3 209 2 927 2 644 2 402 15 332 15 104 14 883 14 608 14 352 14 095 35 391 37 851 39 787 40 839 41 396 41 486

(a)

Not directly comparable with estimates of actual expenditure due to likely over/under realisation. See paragraphs 26 to 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

11

2

ACT U A L AND EX P E C T E D EX P E N D I T U R E , By det a i l e d in d u s t r y — Cu r r e n t pri c e s

Mining Pe r i o d
$m

Manufacturing
$m

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
$m

Construction
$m

Wholesale Trade
$m

Retail Trade
$m

Transport, Postal and Warehousing
$m

ORIG I N A L (A ctua l ) 2010–11 2011–12 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
46 847 81 997 17 298 19 940 19 612 25 147 23 676 26 595 12 343 13 226 3 399 3 671 2 880 3 277 2 297 2 685 6 193 5 414 1 214 1 424 1 280 1 495 1 380 1 428 5 444 4 741 ^868 ^1 172 ^1 146 ^1 556 ^1 411 ^1 452 3 269 3 759 956 1 167 ^800 836 883 1 024 4 151 3 691 1 093 987 733 877 809 1 033 11 546 13 648 3 493 4 282 2 811 3 063 2 798 2 933

O R I G I N A L ( E x p e c t e d ) (a) 2012–13 6 mths to Jun Total fin year 2013–14 12 mths to jun
54 825 105 096 100 204 4 447 9 429 7 920 2 604 5 413 5 217 1 349 4 211 1 913 1 607 3 514 2 274 1 928 3 771 3 344 4 952 10 682 9 824

SEAS O N A L L Y ADJU S T E D (A ctual ) 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
17 667 18 608 21 776 24 011 24 114 24 840 3 681 3 336 3 203 3 028 2 500 2 445 1 300 1 293 1 441 1 396 1 461 1 307 1 069 1 156 1 147 1 336 1 697 1 426 963 982 967 861 879 858 1 091 862 980 801 797 897 3 642 3 839 3 174 2 956 2 906 2 610

TREN D (A ctua l ) 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
16 692 19 371 21 695 23 305 24 400 24 989 3 368 3 376 3 209 2 927 2 644 2 402 1 323 1 322 1 389 1 422 1 405 1 361 1 131 1 094 1 212 1 381 1 506 1 557 946 972 948 900 868 854 1 028 970 887 845 835 837 3 615 3 585 3 346 3 022 2 806 2 703

^ (a)

estimate has a relative standard error of 10% to less than 25% and should be used with caution Not directly comparable with estimates of actual expenditure due to likely over/under realisation. See paragraphs 26 to 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

12

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2

ACT U A L AND EX P E C T E D EX P E N D I T U R E , By det a i l e d in d u s t r y — Cu r r e n t pri c e s

cont i n u e d

Information Media and Telecommunications Pe r i o d
$m

Financial and Insurance Services
$m

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
$m

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
$m

Other Selected Services
$m

Total
$m

ORIG I N A L (A ctua l ) 2010–11 2011–12 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
4 786 5 261 1 199 1 382 1 304 1 377 1 453 1 132 2 831 2 811 734 714 576 787 808 902 11 940 10 520 ^2 436 2 768 2 500 ^2 817 ^2 469 2 452 3 651 3 465 ^834 ^934 ^800 897 ^859 ^853 6 339 6 307 ^1 960 1 572 ^1 269 1 507 1 441 1 638 119 341 154 841 35 483 40 012 35 709 43 637 40 284 44 127

O R I G I N A L ( E x p e c t e d ) (a) 2012–13 6 mths to Jun Total fin year 2013–14 12 mths to jun
2 547 5 131 5 292 1 661 3 370 2 554 4 193 9 114 9 225 1 155 2 866 1 683 2 558 5 638 3 042 83 823 168 235 152 494

SEAS O N A L L Y ADJUS T E D (A ctual ) 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
1 297 1 423 1 358 1 209 1 570 1 160 723 665 674 752 787 835 2 524 2 654 2 821 2 567 2 550 2 339 868 884 892 832 879 811 1 932 1 411 1 521 1 463 1 401 1 471 36 755 37 112 39 954 41 211 41 542 40 999

TREN D (A ctua l ) 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
1 314 1 347 1 363 1 358 1 341 1 309 704 690 689 736 789 825 2 653 2 635 2 699 2 639 2 507 2 384 888 882 872 863 847 831 1 731 1 606 1 478 1 441 1 446 1 433 35 391 37 851 39 787 40 839 41 396 41 486

^ (a)

estimate has a relative standard error of 10% to less than 25% and should be used with caution Not directly comparable with estimates of actual expenditure due to likely over/under realisation. See paragraphs 26 to 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

13

3

ACT U A L EX P E N D I T U R E , By ty p e of as s e t an d in d u s t r y — Ch a i n vo l u m e me a s u r e s ( a )

ASSET Buildings and Structures Pe r i o d
$m

INDUSTRY Equipment, Plant and Machinery
$m

Total
$m

Mining
$m

Manufacturing
$m

Other Selected Industries
$m

Total
$m

ORIGIN A L 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
56 574 53 203 66 044 96 403 16 664 15 062 19 174 21 848 24 034 23 021 27 500 25 552 27 419 52 275 51 873 53 297 59 024 14 609 12 044 15 273 14 023 16 205 12 756 16 040 14 729 16 796 109 126 105 506 119 341 155 427 31 329 27 102 34 441 35 871 40 239 35 776 43 540 40 281 44 215 38 013 35 330 46 847 81 093 11 556 10 518 14 362 17 283 19 776 19 368 24 666 23 238 26 086 12 232 11 424 12 343 13 371 3 396 2 768 3 506 3 446 3 708 2 906 3 310 2 342 2 742 58 787 58 564 60 151 60 963 16 358 13 809 16 587 15 142 16 755 13 503 15 563 14 700 15 387 109 126 105 506 119 341 155 427 31 329 27 102 34 441 35 871 40 239 35 776 43 540 40 281 44 215

SEAS O N A L L Y ADJU S T E D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
15 613 16 655 18 154 22 285 22 577 25 349 26 192 25 951 25 783 13 279 13 853 14 072 14 851 14 688 14 632 14 853 15 555 15 205 28 939 30 501 32 225 37 136 37 264 39 981 41 045 41 507 40 988 10 735 11 710 13 665 17 657 18 440 21 489 23 507 23 650 24 326 3 101 3 091 3 257 3 731 3 366 3 227 3 047 2 542 2 491 15 085 15 693 15 317 15 749 15 458 15 265 14 491 15 315 14 171 28 939 30 501 32 225 37 136 37 264 39 981 41 045 41 507 40 988

TREN D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
15 683 16 882 18 764 21 169 23 408 25 035 25 798 26 098 25 951 13 027 13 736 14 309 14 595 14 691 14 780 14 973 15 232 15 428 28 728 30 610 33 014 35 673 38 037 39 802 40 774 41 328 41 385 10 811 12 030 14 084 16 653 19 212 21 381 22 876 23 908 24 459 3 042 3 144 3 305 3 407 3 409 3 234 2 952 2 679 2 463 14 872 15 433 15 626 15 618 15 416 15 187 14 940 14 739 14 514 28 728 30 610 33 014 35 673 38 037 39 802 40 774 41 328 41 385

(a)

Reference year for chain volume measures is 2010-11.

14

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

4

ACT U A L EX P E N D I T U R E , By ty p e of as s e t an d in d u s t r y — Per c e n t a g e ch a n g e , Ch a i n vo l u m e mea s u r e s ( a )

ASSET Buildings and Structures Pe r i o d
%

INDUSTRY Equipment, Plant and Machinery
%

Total
%

Mining
%

Manufacturing
%

Other Selected Industries
%

Total
%

ORIGIN A L 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
20.1 –6.0 24.1 46.0 10.1 –9.6 27.3 13.9 10.0 –4.2 19.5 –7.1 7.3 5.6 –0.8 2.7 10.7 28.5 –17.6 26.8 –8.2 15.6 –21.3 25.7 –8.2 14.0 12.2 –3.3 13.1 30.2 18.4 –13.5 27.1 4.2 12.2 –11.1 21.7 –7.5 9.8 22.7 –7.1 32.6 73.1 11.0 –9.0 36.5 20.3 14.4 –2.1 27.4 –5.8 12.3 –3.2 –6.6 8.0 8.3 27.1 –18.5 26.7 –1.7 7.6 –21.6 13.9 –29.2 17.1 10.1 –0.4 2.7 1.4 22.1 –15.6 20.1 –8.7 10.6 –19.4 15.3 –5.5 4.7 12.2 –3.3 13.1 30.2 18.4 –13.5 27.1 4.2 12.2 –11.1 21.7 –7.5 9.8

SEAS O N A L L Y ADJU S T E D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
–0.1 6.7 9.0 22.8 1.3 12.3 3.3 –0.9 –0.6 9.8 4.3 1.6 5.5 –1.1 –0.4 1.5 4.7 –2.3 4.6 5.4 5.7 15.2 0.3 7.3 2.7 1.1 –1.2 — 9.1 16.7 29.2 4.4 16.5 9.4 0.6 2.9 7.2 –0.3 5.4 14.5 –9.8 –4.1 –5.6 –16.6 –2.0 7.3 4.0 –2.4 2.8 –1.8 –1.2 –5.1 5.7 –7.5 4.6 5.4 5.7 15.2 0.3 7.3 2.7 1.1 –1.2

TREN D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
4.5 7.6 11.1 12.8 10.6 7.0 3.0 1.2 –0.6 4.4 5.4 4.2 2.0 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.3 4.5 6.6 7.9 8.1 6.6 4.6 2.4 1.4 0.1 5.4 11.3 17.1 18.2 15.4 11.3 7.0 4.5 2.3 2.7 3.4 5.1 3.1 0.1 –5.2 –8.7 –9.2 –8.1 4.1 3.8 1.2 –0.1 –1.3 –1.5 –1.6 –1.3 –1.5 4.5 6.6 7.9 8.1 6.6 4.6 2.4 1.4 0.1

nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

(a)

Reference year for chain volume measures is 2010-11.

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

15

5

EX P E C T E D EX P E N D I T U R E AND RE A L I S A T I O N RA T I O S , By ty p e of as s e t — Cu r r e n t pri c e s

Finan c i a l Yea r

12 months 12 months expectation as expectation as reported in Jan-Feb reported in Apr-May of previous of previous financial year financial year (Estimate 1) (Estimate 2)

12 months expectation as reported in Jul-Aug (Estimate 3)

3 months actual and 9 months expectation as reported in Oct-Nov (Estimate 4)

6 months actual 9 months actual and 6 months and 3 months expectation as expectation as reported in Jan-Feb reported in Apr-May (Estimate 6) (Estimate 5)

12 months actual (Estimate 7)

BUIL D I N G S AND STR U C T U R E S ($ mill i o n ) 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14
47 008 47 758 63 535 92 953 119 640 111 793 51 908 47 893 65 383 96 292 125 271 nya 60 727 53 611 77 919 97 594 126 439 nya 61 044 54 357 76 027 107 996 117 631 nya 59 194 57 819 76 825 106 796 115 301 nya 55 719 54 649 70 579 101 975 nya nya 55 599 51 913 66 044 98 113 nya nya

B U I L D I N G S A N D S T R U C T U R E S ( R e a l i s a t i o n R a t i o ) (a) 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12
1.17 1.18 1.09 1.04 1.06 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.01 1.02 0.91 0.92 0.97 0.85 1.01 0.90 0.91 0.96 0.87 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.90 0.86 0.92 0.94 1.00 0.95 0.94 0.96 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

EQU IP M E N T , PLAN T AND MACHI N E R Y ($ mill i o n ) 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14
43 010 40 214 38 292 41 920 46 252 40 701 46 267 41 000 41 221 43 815 48 185 nya 50 713 45 586 47 624 52 710 52 841 nya 52 791 49 359 48 478 57 184 52 738 nya 51 078 53 182 52 458 54 905 52 934 nya 55 779 54 118 53 324 56 983 nya nya 57 602 55 191 53 297 56 728 nya nya

E Q U I P M E N T , P L A N T A N D M A C H I N E R Y ( R e a l i s a t i o n R a t i o ) (a) 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12
1.54 1.34 1.37 1.39 1.35 1.39 1.24 1.35 1.29 1.29 1.25 1.14 1.21 1.12 1.08 1.14 1.09 1.12 1.10 0.99 1.09 1.13 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

TOT A L ($ mill i o n ) 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14
90 018 87 972 101 828 134 874 165 892 152 494 98 175 88 893 106 604 140 108 173 457 nya 111 440 99 197 125 543 150 305 179 279 nya 113 835 103 716 124 505 165 180 170 369 nya 110 272 111 001 129 283 161 701 168 235 nya 111 499 108 768 123 903 158 958 nya nya 113 201 107 105 119 341 154 841 nya nya

T O T A L ( R e a l i s a t i o n R a t i o ) (a) 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12
1.34 1.26 1.22 1.17 1.15 1.21 1.15 1.20 1.12 1.11 1.07 1.02 1.08 0.95 1.03 1.01 0.99 1.03 0.96 0.94 1.01 1.03 0.96 0.92 0.96 0.98 1.02 0.98 0.96 0.97 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

TOT A L (pe r c e n t a g e cha n g e ove r cor r e s p o n d i n g est i m a t e for pre v i o u s fina n c i a l yea r ) 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14
24.9 –2.3 15.8 32.5 23.0 –8.1 22.8 –9.5 19.9 31.4 23.8 nya 23.2 –11.0 26.6 19.7 19.3 nya 19.2 –8.9 20.0 32.7 3.1 nya 14.8 0.7 16.5 25.1 4.0 nya 12.9 –2.4 13.9 28.3 nya nya 16.9 –5.4 11.4 29.7 nya nya

nya not yet available (a) Ratio of actual expenditure for the financial year to each progressive estimate for the financial year. See paragraphs 26 to 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

16

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

6

EX P E C T E D EX P E N D I T U R E AND RE A L I S A T I O N RA T I O S , By in d u s t r y — Cu r r e n t pri c e s

Finan c i a l Yea r

12 months 12 months expectation as expectation as reported in Jan-Feb reported in Apr-May of previous of previous financial year financial year (Estimate 1) (Estimate 2)

12 months expectation as reported in Jul-Aug (Estimate 3)

3 months actual and 9 months expectation as reported in Oct-Nov (Estimate 4)

6 months actual 9 months actual and 6 months and 3 months expectation as expectation as reported in Jan-Feb reported in Apr-May (Estimate 6) (Estimate 5)

12 months actual (Estimate 7)

MINI N G ($ milli o n ) 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14
31 717 35 529 49 100 79 004 113 396 100 204 35 355 34 811 48 839 82 380 119 290 nya 43 752 36 940 56 794 84 137 118 984 nya 44 901 37 762 54 939 93 377 108 065 nya 41 691 41 394 56 944 92 248 105 096 nya 38 677 37 366 51 357 86 370 nya nya 37 978 35 184 46 847 81 997 nya nya

M I N I N G ( R e a l i s a t i o n R a t i o ) (a) 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12
1.06 1.20 0.99 0.95 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.01 0.96 1.00 0.98 0.87 0.95 0.82 0.97 0.95 0.85 0.93 0.85 0.88 0.92 0.91 0.85 0.82 0.89 0.94 0.98 0.94 0.91 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

MANU F A C T U R I N G ($ milli o n ) 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14
10 959 11 450 10 820 11 545 10 353 7 920 11 619 10 342 12 534 11 867 10 394 nya 13 224 11 306 14 044 13 476 11 414 nya 13 383 12 287 13 603 13 810 10 074 nya 11 998 12 258 12 897 13 812 9 429 nya 12 356 11 781 12 490 13 330 nya nya 12 681 11 743 12 343 13 226 nya nya

M A N U F A C T U R I N G ( R e a l i s a t i o n R a t i o ) (a) 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12
1.32 1.16 1.03 1.14 1.15 1.21 1.09 1.14 0.98 1.11 1.12 0.96 1.04 0.88 0.98 1.03 0.95 0.96 0.91 0.96 1.01 1.06 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.98 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

OTH E R SEL E C T E D IND U S T R I E S ($ mil l i o n ) 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14
47 343 40 993 41 908 44 324 42 143 44 371 51 201 43 740 45 231 45 861 43 772 nya 54 465 50 951 54 705 52 692 48 882 nya 55 551 53 667 55 963 57 992 52 230 nya 56 583 57 349 59 443 55 641 53 710 nya 60 465 59 620 60 056 59 258 nya nya 62 542 60 178 60 151 59 618 nya nya

O T H E R S E L E C T E D I N D U S T R I E S ( R e a l i s a t i o n R a t i o ) (a) 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12
1.58 1.32 1.47 1.44 1.35 1.32 1.22 1.38 1.33 1.30 1.12 1.15 1.18 1.10 1.13 1.05 1.13 1.12 1.07 1.03 1.06 1.11 1.05 1.01 1.07 1.00 1.03 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

nya not yet available (a) Ratio of actual expenditure for the financial year to each progressive estimate for the financial year. See paragraphs 26 to 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

17

7

RA T I O S OF ACT U A L TO SH O R T TE R M EX P E C T A T I O N S (a ) , By ty p e of as s e t an d in d u s t r y — Cu r r e n t pri c e s

3 MONTHS ENDING 31 December (collected in September Survey) 30 June (collected in March Survey)

6 MONTHS ENDING 31 December (collected in June Survey) 30 June (collected in December survey)

Finan c i a l Year

TYPE OF ASSET Buildings and Structures 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 Equipment, Plant and Machinery 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 Total 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13
0.97 0.96 0.84 0.88 0.91 1.05 1.15 1.03 0.94 1.04 1.01 1.06 0.92 0.90 0.96 0.99 0.84 0.81 0.88 nya 1.13 1.08 1.00 0.98 nya 1.06 0.94 0.88 0.91 nya 1.00 0.91 0.85 0.99 0.87 1.09 1.19 1.07 1.05 1.07 1.04 1.04 0.94 1.01 0.93 0.88 0.82 0.76 0.86 nya 1.30 1.08 1.03 1.07 nya 1.06 0.93 0.86 0.92 nya

TYPE OF INDUST R Y Mining 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 Manufacturing 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 Other selected industries 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 Total 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

0.90 0.97 0.79 0.85 0.93 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.91 0.86 1.10 1.13 1.03 0.97 1.03 1.01 1.06 0.92 0.90 0.96

0.93 0.82 0.76 0.85 nya 1.11 0.99 0.96 0.97 nya 1.13 1.04 1.01 1.02 nya 1.06 0.94 0.88 0.91 nya

0.95 0.91 0.80 0.94 0.85 1.04 1.14 0.94 0.97 0.89 1.11 1.11 1.07 1.12 1.13 1.04 1.04 0.94 1.01 0.93

0.83 0.74 0.71 0.81 nya 1.13 0.92 0.92 0.91 nya 1.24 1.11 1.02 1.16 nya 1.06 0.93 0.86 0.92 nya

nya not yet available

(a)

For more information on Realisation Ratios see paragraphs 26 to 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

18

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

8

ACT U A L EX P E N D I T U R E ON BU I L D I N G S AND ST R U C T U R E S , By sta t e — Cu r r e n t pri c e s

New South Wales Pe r i o d
$m

Victoria
$m

Queensland
$m

South Australia
$m

Western Australia
$m

Tasmania
$m

Northern Territory
$m

Australian Capital Territory
$m

Total
$m

ORIGIN AL 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
8 426 8 139 10 448 11 754 3 100 2 125 2 819 2 984 3 095 2 624 3 051 2 771 2 866 7 793 8 450 9 006 8 714 ^2 420 ^2 135 ^2 420 ^2 409 2 323 1 826 2 155 1 913 1 986 11 962 10 918 15 547 29 240 ^3 417 ^3 511 5 282 6 451 7 664 6 993 8 132 7 477 8 879 2 543 2 024 2 453 2 450 641 562 725 619 645 531 655 832 632 23 083 21 128 27 131 43 183 6 632 6 384 7 705 9 208 10 180 10 686 13 109 11 718 11 684 233 190 244 233 77 ^52 67 ^50 66 ^64 54 34 *120 1 271 636 772 2 080 *207 *198 *199 179 314 625 962 1 420 1 965 288 428 442 460 ^135 88 110 111 125 105 118 102 109 55 599 51 913 66 044 98 113 16 628 15 054 19 326 22 011 24 411 23 454 28 236 26 268 28 241

SEASO N A L L Y ADJU S T E D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
2 807 2 453 2 647 3 071 2 821 3 020 2 890 2 823 2 623 2 223 2 365 2 269 2 539 2 152 2 016 2 027 2 000 1 853 3 039 3 972 5 295 6 469 6 841 7 912 8 145 7 480 7 957 602 650 666 630 607 614 601 847 594 6 388 6 851 7 383 9 256 9 920 11 496 12 458 11 765 11 460 np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np 15 592 16 659 18 316 22 476 22 970 25 880 26 948 26 726 26 608

TREND 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
2 582 2 652 2 719 2 860 2 968 2 960 2 892 2 799 2 668 2 229 2 321 2 388 2 354 2 222 2 084 2 000 1 960 1 904 3 345 4 100 5 170 6 275 7 163 7 707 7 879 7 869 7 777 600 645 654 637 602 621 670 700 697 6 475 6 865 7 678 8 871 10 259 11 443 11 947 11 957 11 671 61 62 60 60 61 55 54 62 76 190 195 180 203 328 589 994 1 444 1 859 113 107 107 112 118 115 111 108 107 15 648 16 922 18 884 21 399 23 790 25 590 26 485 26 881 26 849

^ * np

estimate has a relative standard error of 10% to less than 25% and should be used with caution estimate has a relative standard error of 25% to 50% and should be used with caution not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

19

9

ACT U A L EX P E N D I T U R E ON EQ U I P M E N T , PL A N T AND MA C H I N E R Y , By sta t e — Cu r r e n t pri c e s

New South Wales Pe r i o d
$m

Victoria
$m

Queensland
$m

South Australia
$m

Western Australia
$m

Tasmania
$m

Northern Territory
$m

Australian Capital Territory
$m

Total
$m

ORIGIN AL 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
15 238 16 177 15 233 14 902 4 303 3 372 3 828 3 529 4 385 3 171 3 816 3 556 4 016 13 421 13 768 12 250 11 102 3 498 2 890 3 157 2 721 3 132 2 449 2 799 2 763 3 026 13 574 10 612 11 309 12 827 3 055 2 482 3 484 3 245 3 419 2 653 3 510 3 009 3 322 2 825 2 974 2 964 3 031 ^896 662 760 ^713 ^845 719 755 616 769 9 906 9 473 9 796 12 785 2 458 2 234 ^3 139 2 808 3 215 2 807 3 954 3 592 4 247 1 084 679 757 935 ^242 ^152 ^232 ^223 ^304 ^183 ^225 ^182 ^196 989 934 608 710 ^181 ^123 156 131 180 184 215 175 173 564 575 380 436 ^118 ^96 ^100 ^101 119 89 ^126 ^123 ^137 57 602 55 191 53 297 56 728 14 752 12 010 14 856 13 472 15 601 12 255 15 401 14 016 15 887

SEAS O N A L L Y ADJU S T E D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
3 968 3 782 3 611 3 668 4 030 3 555 3 620 3 687 3 682 3 101 3 179 3 020 2 957 2 792 2 674 2 701 2 969 2 713 2 887 2 818 3 065 3 501 3 232 3 006 3 120 3 213 3 147 803 727 735 766 751 789 728 669 678 2 313 2 511 2 817 3 006 3 024 3 154 3 565 3 825 3 996 np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np 13 404 13 814 13 691 14 279 14 142 14 074 14 262 14 816 14 390

TREND 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
3 890 3 771 3 710 3 743 3 770 3 717 3 645 3 641 3 699 3 069 3 099 3 063 2 930 2 781 2 728 2 760 2 808 2 821 2 715 2 902 3 157 3 283 3 253 3 135 3 103 3 153 3 191 742 750 746 751 770 761 729 692 664 2 278 2 547 2 786 2 943 3 060 3 238 3 512 3 793 4 018 177 199 223 242 244 232 214 194 176 153 142 139 148 171 191 195 187 175 96 104 105 101 103 110 117 123 127 13 157 13 635 13 962 14 079 14 122 14 209 14 349 14 517 14 617

^

estimate has a relative standard error of 10% to less than 25% and should be used with caution

np

not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

20

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

10

ACT U A L TO T A L EX P E N D I T U R E , By sta t e — Cu r r e n t pr i c e s

New South Wales Pe r i o d
$m

Victoria
$m

Queensland
$m

South Australia
$m

Western Australia
$m

Tasmania
$m

Northern Territory
$m

Australian Capital Territory
$m

Total
$m

ORIGIN AL 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
23 664 24 316 25 682 26 656 7 403 5 498 6 647 6 513 7 480 5 796 6 867 6 327 6 882 21 214 22 217 21 255 19 816 5 918 5 025 5 577 5 131 5 455 4 275 4 954 4 676 5 012 25 536 21 530 26 856 42 067 6 472 5 993 8 766 9 696 11 083 9 646 11 642 10 486 12 201 5 368 4 998 5 417 5 481 1 537 1 224 1 485 1 332 1 490 1 250 1 409 1 448 1 401 32 989 30 601 36 927 55 967 9 090 8 617 10 843 12 016 13 395 13 493 17 063 15 310 15 931 1 318 869 1 001 1 168 318 ^204 ^299 ^273 ^370 ^246 ^279 ^216 ^316 2 260 1 570 1 380 2 790 ^388 *321 ^355 310 494 809 1 177 1 595 2 137 852 1 004 822 896 ^253 ^184 211 212 244 194 245 225 ^246 113 201 107 105 119 341 154 841 31 380 27 065 34 183 35 483 40 012 35 709 43 637 40 284 44 127

SEASO N A L L Y ADJU S T E D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
6 775 6 235 6 258 6 739 6 850 6 575 6 510 6 510 6 305 5 324 5 544 5 289 5 496 4 944 4 690 4 727 4 969 4 566 5 926 6 790 8 360 9 970 10 072 10 917 11 265 10 692 11 104 1 406 1 376 1 400 1 396 1 358 1 403 1 329 1 516 1 272 8 700 9 362 10 199 12 262 12 944 14 649 16 023 15 590 15 456 259 242 280 321 296 294 263 252 255 359 338 341 339 449 820 1 159 1 610 2 131 242 198 207 214 233 207 241 227 233 28 996 30 473 32 006 36 755 37 112 39 954 41 211 41 542 40 999

TREND 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
6 472 6 423 6 430 6 603 6 738 6 677 6 537 6 440 6 367 5 298 5 420 5 451 5 284 5 002 4 811 4 760 4 767 4 725 6 060 7 002 8 327 9 557 10 416 10 841 10 982 11 021 10 967 1 342 1 395 1 400 1 389 1 373 1 382 1 398 1 392 1 361 8 752 9 412 10 465 11 815 13 319 14 681 15 459 15 749 15 689 238 260 283 302 306 288 268 256 252 343 337 319 351 499 780 1 189 1 630 2 034 209 211 212 213 221 225 228 231 234 28 817 30 545 32 784 35 391 37 851 39 787 40 839 41 396 41 486

^

estimate has a relative standard error of 10% to less than 25% and should be used with caution

*

estimate has a relative standard error of 25% to 50% and should be used with caution

ABS • PRIVA T E NEW CAP IT A L EXP EN D I T U R E AND EXP EC T E D EXP EN D I T U R E • 562 5 . 0 • DEC 201 2

21

11

ACT U A L EX P E N D I T U R E ON BU I L D I N G S AND ST R U C T U R E S , By sta t e — Ch a i n vo l u m e mea s u r e s ( a )

New South Wales Pe r i o d
$m

Victoria
$m

Queensland
$m

South Australia
$m

Western Australia
$m

Tasmania
$m

Northern Territory
$m

Australian Capital Territory
$m

Total
$m

ORIGIN A L 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
8 648 8 355 10 448 11 481 3 107 2 127 2 781 2 931 3 027 2 562 2 960 2 681 2 766 8 160 8 926 9 006 8 641 2 417 2 139 2 396 2 388 2 293 1 816 2 144 1 906 1 962 11 893 11 075 15 547 28 761 3 455 3 523 5 230 6 422 7 562 6 861 7 916 7 254 8 655 2 587 2 066 2 453 2 434 639 562 727 621 642 527 644 814 618 23 436 21 554 27 131 42 391 6 636 6 375 7 657 9 151 10 014 10 486 12 740 11 393 11 315 255 197 244 231 77 52 67 50 65 63 53 34 119 1 345 657 772 2 011 208 198 196 177 307 601 926 1 370 1 876 300 440 442 453 135 88 109 109 124 104 117 100 107 56 574 53 203 66 044 96 403 16 664 15 062 19 174 21 848 24 034 23 021 27 500 25 552 27 419

SEAS O N A L L Y ADJU S T E D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
2 817 2 462 2 617 3 013 2 748 2 933 2 787 2 713 2 515 2 215 2 363 2 241 2 510 2 120 2 001 2 011 1 987 1 827 3 051 3 951 5 199 6 399 6 719 7 736 7 906 7 236 7 734 599 649 667 631 604 608 591 828 580 6 396 6 848 7 345 9 208 9 768 11 293 12 121 11 452 11 111 np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np 15 613 16 655 18 154 22 285 22 577 25 349 26 192 25 951 25 783

TREN D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
2 598 2 651 2 693 2 807 2 894 2 871 2 791 2 691 2 566 2 230 2 306 2 365 2 324 2 194 2 064 1 984 1 943 1 882 3 338 4 068 5 108 6 184 7 037 7 529 7 658 7 631 7 537 599 644 655 638 600 614 658 685 681 6 494 6 858 7 648 8 803 10 120 11 218 11 654 11 625 11 322 61 62 60 60 60 54 54 61 75 191 194 179 201 321 574 965 1 400 1 827 113 106 106 110 116 113 109 106 106 15 683 16 882 18 764 21 169 23 408 25 035 25 798 26 098 25 951

np

not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

(a)

Reference year for chain volume measures is 2010-11.

22

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12

ACT U A L EX P E N D I T U R E ON EQ U I P M E N T , PL A N T AND MA C H I N E R Y , By sta t e — Ch a i n vo l u m e mea s u r e s ( a )

New South Wales Pe r i o d
$m

Victoria
$m

Queensland
$m

South Australia
$m

Western Australia
$m

Tasmania
$m

Northern Territory
$m

Australian Capital Territory
$m

Total
$m

ORIGIN AL 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
13 774 15 205 15 233 15 530 4 264 3 387 3 946 3 679 4 559 3 307 3 984 3 742 4 260 12 068 12 907 12 250 11 615 3 465 2 899 3 252 2 841 3 270 2 561 2 943 2 928 3 233 12 342 9 979 11 309 13 328 3 023 2 486 3 579 3 376 3 546 2 760 3 648 3 157 3 505 2 569 2 798 2 964 3 153 888 664 782 743 877 747 786 646 812 9 145 8 924 9 796 13 227 2 435 2 236 3 213 2 910 3 326 2 906 4 085 3 750 4 451 985 638 757 975 239 152 238 232 316 191 236 191 208 904 879 608 737 179 123 161 136 187 191 224 183 182 506 538 380 457 117 96 103 106 124 93 134 131 147 52 275 51 873 53 297 59 024 14 609 12 044 15 273 14 023 16 205 12 756 16 040 14 729 16 796

SEASO N A L L Y ADJU S T E D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
3 928 3 792 3 717 3 826 4 197 3 716 3 790 3 891 3 917 3 071 3 187 3 107 3 082 2 909 2 790 2 833 3 140 2 892 2 877 2 842 3 163 3 644 3 344 3 114 3 227 3 355 3 304 801 733 759 799 779 818 757 699 714 2 302 2 529 2 902 3 129 3 138 3 271 3 689 3 999 4 193 np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np np 13 279 13 853 14 072 14 851 14 688 14 632 14 853 15 555 15 205

TREND 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
3 848 3 795 3 807 3 891 3 937 3 884 3 823 3 842 3 921 3 040 3 122 3 141 3 043 2 902 2 851 2 899 2 969 2 999 2 702 2 942 3 250 3 406 3 376 3 246 3 220 3 288 3 343 738 761 769 781 801 790 758 724 698 2 265 2 579 2 866 3 054 3 178 3 357 3 651 3 959 4 190 177 202 231 251 254 241 222 202 183 152 144 144 155 179 199 204 196 186 95 104 107 105 109 116 124 132 137 13 027 13 736 14 309 14 595 14 691 14 780 14 973 15 232 15 428

np

not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

(a)

Reference year for chain volume measures is 2010-11.

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23

13

ACT U A L TO T A L EX P E N D I T U R E , By sta t e — Ch a i n vo l u m e mea s u r e s ( a )

New South Wales Pe r i o d
$m

Victoria
$m

Queensland
$m

South Australia
$m

Western Australia
$m

Tasmania
$m

Northern Territory
$m

Australian Capital Territory
$m

Total
$m

ORIGIN A L 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
22 436 23 667 25 682 27 011 7 360 5 525 6 725 6 611 7 587 5 870 6 944 6 422 7 025 20 279 21 871 21 255 20 256 5 890 5 037 5 647 5 229 5 563 4 378 5 087 4 834 5 195 24 410 21 139 26 856 42 089 6 500 6 005 8 800 9 798 11 108 9 620 11 563 10 411 12 159 5 123 4 875 5 417 5 588 1 531 1 225 1 507 1 364 1 519 1 274 1 431 1 460 1 430 32 615 30 546 36 927 55 618 9 077 8 607 10 891 12 060 13 340 13 392 16 826 15 143 15 766 1 248 836 1 001 1 206 316 204 306 282 380 254 290 226 326 2 221 1 555 1 380 2 748 388 320 357 313 493 792 1 150 1 553 2 058 822 987 822 911 252 185 213 215 248 197 250 231 255 109 126 105 506 119 341 155 427 31 329 27 102 34 441 35 871 40 239 35 776 43 540 40 281 44 215

SEAS O N A L L Y ADJU S T E D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
6 735 6 264 6 329 6 836 6 943 6 654 6 578 6 602 6 431 5 295 5 551 5 348 5 590 5 032 4 792 4 842 5 125 4 723 5 940 6 787 8 367 10 033 10 057 10 850 11 150 10 579 11 028 1 403 1 382 1 423 1 429 1 383 1 428 1 347 1 526 1 296 8 702 9 373 10 270 12 342 12 913 14 554 15 809 15 429 15 304 260 244 288 332 304 301 270 261 260 359 338 345 345 452 810 1 142 1 582 2 071 241 199 208 217 237 210 247 233 241 28 939 30 501 32 225 37 136 37 264 39 981 41 045 41 507 40 988

TREN D 2010–11 December March June 2011–12 September December March June 2012–13 September December
6 447 6 446 6 498 6 695 6 829 6 756 6 616 6 533 6 481 5 271 5 429 5 506 5 367 5 097 4 915 4 882 4 911 4 891 6 041 7 010 8 356 9 583 10 409 10 776 10 882 10 916 10 875 1 338 1 404 1 422 1 417 1 402 1 405 1 416 1 409 1 379 8 753 9 442 10 526 11 867 13 302 14 570 15 291 15 573 15 496 238 264 291 312 314 295 276 264 257 343 338 323 355 500 773 1 171 1 596 1 983 208 211 214 216 224 229 233 238 242 28 728 30 610 33 014 35 673 38 037 39 802 40 774 41 328 41 385

(a)

Reference year for chain volume measure is 2010-11

24

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WH A T IF . . . ? REVI S I O N S TO TREND ESTI MA T E S

EFFEC T OF NEW SEASO N A L L Y ADJUS T E D ESTIM A T E S ON TREND ESTIM A T E S
TREN D REVISIO N S

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

BUIL D I N G S AND STR U C T U R E S
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: (1) rises by 2.2% (2) falls by 2.2% on this quarter on this quarter
% $m % $m %

Trend (1) (2)

$m 27500 25000

Trend as published
$m

2012
22500 20000 17500 15000 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 March June September December
25 035 25 798 26 098 25 951 7.0 3.0 1.2 –0.6 25 035 25 858 26 088 26 037 7.0 3.3 0.9 –0.2 25 035 25 923 26 063 25 722 7.0 3.5 0.5 –1.3

EQU I P M E N T , PLAN T AND MACH I N E R Y
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: (1) rises by 2.0% (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter on this quarter
% $m % $m %

Trend (1) (2)

$m 15500 15000

Trend as published
$m

2012
14500 14000 13500 13000 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012
— nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

March June September December

14 780 14 973 15 232 15 428

0.6 1.3 1.7 1.3

14 780 14 967 15 231 15 399

0.6 1.3 1.8 1.1

14 780 15 003 15 219 15 227

0.6 1.5 1.4 —

TOTA L CAPIT A L EXPE N D I T U R E
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: (1) rises by 2.1% (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter on this quarter
% $m % $m %

Trend (1) (2)

$m 42000 39000

Trend as published
$m

2012
36000 33000 30000 27000 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012
March June September December
39 802 40 774 41 328 41 385 4.6 2.4 1.4 0.1 39 802 40 838 41 311 41 435 4.6 2.6 1.2 0.3 39 802 40 939 41 276 40 949 4.6 2.9 0.8 –0.8

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25

EXPLA N A T O R Y NOTES

INTR ODU C TI ON

1 This publication contains estimates of actual and expected new capital expenditure by private businesses for selected industries in Australia. The series have been compiled from data collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in its quarterly Survey of New Capital Expenditure. 2 The Survey of New Capital Expenditure includes the following industries classified according to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification, ANZSIC, 2006: Mining (Division B) Manufacturing (Division C) Other selected industries: Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (Division D) Construction (Division E) Wholesale Trade (Division F) Retail Trade (Division G) Transport, Postal and Warehousing (Division I) Information Media and Telecommunications (Division J) Finance and Insurance (Division K, excluding ANZSIC class 6330, Superannuation Funds) Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services (Division L) Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (Division M) Other selected services: Accommodation and Food Services (Division H) Administrative and Support Services (Division N) Arts and Recreation Services (Division R) Other Services (Division S) 3 The survey excludes the following industries: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (Division A) Public Administration and Safety (Division O) Education and Training (Division P) Health Care and Social Assistance (Division Q) Superannuation Funds (Class 6330) 4 The scope excludes public sector business units (i.e. all departments, authorities and other organisations owned and controlled by Commonwealth, State and Local Government). 5 The Survey of New Capital Expenditure, like most ABS economic collections, takes its frame from Employing and Non-Employing Units on the ABS Business Register which is primarily based on ABN registrations to the Australian Business Register, which is managed by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO). The frame is updated quarterly to take account of new businesses and changes in the characteristics of businesses, such as industry and size. 6 Businesses which have ceased employing are identified when the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) cancels their Australian Business Number (ABN) registration. In addition, businesses which do not remit for Goods and Services Tax and/or Income Tax Withholding purposes for the previous five quarters, are removed from the frame. 7 As noted, the Survey frame includes Employing and Non-Employing Units on the ABS Business Register. However, micro non-employing businesses are excluded. These are very small units on the ABS Business Register, by standard measures of size. While there are a substantial number of these businesses, it is expected that they would not contribute significantly to the estimates, although the impact would vary from industry to industry.

SCOP E OF THE SURV EY

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E X P L A N A T O R Y N O T E S continued

STA T I S T I C A L UNI T

8 In the Survey of New Capital Expenditure, the statistical unit used to represent businesses, and for which statistics are reported, is the Australian Business Number (ABN) unit, in most cases. The ABN unit is the business unit which has registered for an ABN, and thus appears on the ATO administered Australian Business Register. This unit is suitable for ABS statistical needs when the business is simple in structure. 9 For more significant and diverse businesses where the ABN unit is not suitable for ABS statistical needs, the statistical unit used is the Type of Activity Unit (TAU). A TAU is comprised of one or more business entities, sub-entities or branches of a business entity within an Enterprise Group that can report production and employment data for similar economic activities. When a minimum set of data items is available, a TAU is created which covers all the operations within an industry subdivision (and the TAU is classified to the relevant subdivision of the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC)). Where a business cannot supply adequate data for each industry, a TAU is formed which contains activity in more than one industry subdivision and the TAU is classified to the predominant ANZSIC subdivision. Further details about the ABS economic statistical units used in this survey, and in other ABS economic surveys (both sample surveys and censuses), can be found in Chapter 2 of the Standard Economic Sector Classifications of Australia (SESCA) 2008 (cat. no. 1218.0).

SURVEY METHODO L OG Y

10 The survey is conducted by mail on a quarterly basis. It is based on a random sample of approximately 8,000 units which is stratified by industry, state/territory and derived employment size. The figures obtained from the selected units are supplemented by data from units which have large capital expenditure and are outside the sample framework, or not adequately covered by it. 11 Respondents are asked to provide data on the same basis as their own management accounts. Where a selected unit does not respond in a given survey period, a value is estimated. If data are subsequently provided, the estimated value is replaced with reported data. Aggregates are calculated from all data using the ‘number raised’ estimation technique. Data are edited at both individual unit level and at aggregate level.

TIMI N G AND CONS T R U C T I O N OF SUR V E Y CY C L E

12 Surveys are conducted in respect of each quarter and returns are completed in the 8 or 9 week period after the end of the quarter to which the survey data relate (e.g. June quarter survey returns are completed during July and August). 13
! ! !

Businesses are requested to provide 3 basic figures each survey: Actual expenditure incurred during the reference period (Act) A short term expectation (E1) A longer term expectation (E2).

Period to which reported data relates
2011-12 Survey Quarter Sep Act Act Act Dec Act Act Act Act Act Mar E1 E1 Act Act Act Act Act E1 E1 Act Act Act Act Act Jun Sep 2012-13 Dec Mar E2 E2 E2 E2 E1 E1 Act E1 E2 E2 E2 Jun Sep 2013-14 Dec Mar Jun

December 2011 March 2012 June 2012 September 2012 December 2012 March 2013 June 2013

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27

E X P L A N A T O R Y N O T E S continued

TIMI N G AND CONS T R U C T I O N O F S U R V E Y C Y C L E continued

14 This survey cycle facilitates the formation of estimates of expenditure for financial years (12 months ending 30 June) which are presented in tables 5 and 6 of this publication. For example, as the previous table shows for 2011-2012: ! the first estimate was available from the December 2010 survey as a longer term expectation (E2) ! the second estimate was available from the March 2011 survey (again as a longer term expectation) ! the third estimate was available from the June 2011 survey as the sum of two expectations (E1 + E2) ! in the September 2011, December 2011 and March 2012 surveys the fourth, fifth and sixth estimates, respectively, are derived from the sum of actual expenditure (for that part of the year completed) and expected expenditure (for the remainder of the year) as recorded in the current quarter's survey ! the final (or seventh) estimate from the June quarter 2012 survey is derived from the sum of the actual expenditure for each of the four quarters in the 2011–12 financial year. 15 Businesses are requested to provide actual expenditure data by state/territory each quarter. Prior to 2002, businesses were also asked to provide expected expenditure data by state/territory each December quarter. Since 2002 state/territory expectations data have been directly collected each December quarter only from selected businesses contributing significantly to data for a particular state or territory. Expectations data for the remaining businesses which operate in more than one state or territory are pro-rated to states/territories based on actual expenditure for the December quarter in each state or territory. Expectations data for businesses operating within a single state/territory are allocated to that state/territory. 16 These expectations data by state/territory are not included in this publication but are released on the ABS Website.

SAMPLE REVISIO N

17 The survey frames and samples are revised each quarter to ensure that they remain representative of the survey population. The timing for creating each quarter's survey frame is consistent with that of other ABS business surveys. This provides for greater consistency when comparing data across surveys. 18 Additionally, with these revisions to the sample, some of the units from the sampled sector are rotated out of the survey and are replaced by others to spread the reporting workload equitably. 19 Adjustments are included in the estimates to allow for lags in processing new businesses to the ABS Business Register, and the omission of some businesses from the register. The majority of businesses affected and to which adjustments apply are small in size. As an indication of the size of these adjustments, in the December quarter 2012 they represented about 0.2% of the total estimate of new capital expenditure.

CLAS S I F I CA TI ON BY INDUS TR Y

20 The Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) has been developed for use in both countries for the production and analysis of industry statistics. For more information, users are referred to Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC), 2006 (cat. no. 1292.0). 21 In order to classify new capital expenditure by industry, each statistical unit (as defined above) is classified to the (ANZSIC) industry in which it mainly operates.

CHAI N VOLUM E MEAS UR ES

22 The chain volume measures appearing in this publication are annually reweighted chain Laspeyres indexes referenced to current price values in the chosen reference year (currently 2009-10). The current price values may be thought to be the product of a price and quantity. The value in chain volume terms can be derived by linking together movements in volumes, calculated using the average prices of the previous financial year

28

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E X P L A N A T O R Y N O T E S continued

CHAI N VOLUM E MEAS UR ES continued

and applying compound movements to the current price estimates of the reference year. Each year's quarter-to-quarter growth rates in the chain volume series are based on the prices of the previous financial year, except for those quarters of the latest incomplete year which are based upon the second most recent financial year. Quarterly chain volume estimates for a financial year sum to the corresponding annual estimate. 23 With each release of the September quarter issue of this publication, a new base year is introduced and the reference year is advanced one year to coincide with it. With this release of the September quarter 2012 issue of this publication, the chain volume measures for 2011-12 now have 2010-11 (the previous financial year) as their base year rather than 2009-10, and the reference year is 2010-11. 24 A change in the reference year changes levels but not growth rates for all periods. A change in the base year can result in revisions, small in most cases, to growth rates for the last year. 25 Chain volume measures are not generally additive. In other words, component chain volume measures do not, in general, sum to a total in the way original current price components do. For capital expenditure data, this means that the original chain volume estimates for the states will not add to total capital expenditure for Australia. In order to minimise the impact of this, the ABS uses the latest base year as the reference year. By adopting this approach, additivity does exist for the quarters following the reference year and non-additivity is relatively small for the quarters in the reference year and those immediately preceding it. For further information on chain volume measures refer to Information Paper: Introduction of Chain Volume Measures in the Australian National Accounts (cat. no. 5248.0)

DERI VAT I ON AND USEF UL N E S S OF REAL I S A T I O N RATI O S

26 Once actual expenditure for a financial year is known, it is useful to investigate the relationship between each of the prior six estimates of expenditure for that financial year and the actual expenditure (see page 6 for an explanation of the derivation of the seven estimates). The resultant realisation ratios (subsequent actual expenditure divided by expected expenditure) then indicate how much expenditure was actually incurred against the amount expected to be incurred at the various times of reporting. Realisation ratios can also be formed separately for three or six month expectations as well as the 12 month E2 estimates or combinations of estimates containing at least some expectation components (e.g. six months actual and six months expected expenditure). 27 Realisation ratios provide an important tool in understanding and interpreting expectation statistics for future periods. The application of realisation ratios enables the adjustment of expectation data for known under (or over) realisation patterns in the past and hence provides a valid basis for comparison with other expectation data and actual expenditure estimates. Once this has been done the predictions can be more validly compared with each other and with previously derived estimates of actual expenditure for earlier years. For example, if one wished to make a prediction about actual expenditure for 2012–13 based on the June 2012 survey results and compare this with 2011-12 expenditure, it is necessary to apply the relevant realisation factors to the expectation to put both estimates on the same basis. 28 There are many ways in which realisation ratios can be applied to make predictions of actual expenditure for a future period. A range of realisation ratios for both type of asset and industry estimates is provided in tables 5 and 6. 29 In using realisation ratios to adjust expectations data, attention should be paid to the range of values that has occurred in the past. A wide range of values is indicative of volatility in the realisation patterns and hence greater caution should be exercised regarding the predictive value of the expectation, even after adjustment by application of realisation ratios. This is particularly the case with the early 12 month expectations for the following financial year collected in the December and March surveys.

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29

E X P L A N A T O R Y N O T E S continued

REL I A B I L I T Y OF THE ESTI M A T E S

30 Estimates provided in this publication are subject to non-sampling and sampling errors. The most common way of quantifying sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate. Details of standard errors are on pages 33 and 34 of this publication. 31 Estimates that have an estimated relative standard error between 10% and 25% are annotated with the symbol '^' . These estimates should be used with caution as they are subject to sampling variability too high for some purposes. Estimates with an RSE between 25% and 50% are annotated with the symbol '*', indicating that the estimate should be used with caution as it is subject to sampling variability too high for most practical purposes. Estimates with an RSE greater than 50% are annotated with the symbol '**' indicating that the sampling variability causes the estimates to be considered too unreliable for general use. These annotations have only been applied to estimates from the March quarter 2009. 32 Non-sampling errors may arise as a result of errors in the reporting, recording or processing of the data and can occur even if there is a complete enumeration of the population. These errors can be introduced through inadequacies in the questionnaire, treatment of non-response, inaccurate reporting by respondents, errors in the application of survey procedures, incorrect recording of answers, and errors in data entry and processing. 33 Estimates for the latest quarter presented in this publication are considered preliminary and revised estimates will be released with the next issue. As discussed in Paragraphs 37 to 42 below, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also subject to revision as data are revised and more data become available. 34 It is difficult to measure the size of non-sampling errors. However, every effort is made in the design of the survey and development of survey procedures to minimise their effects. In addition, respondents may have difficulties in allocating to the appropriate state(s) expenditure on some equipment items such as mobile assets (e.g. aircraft, bulk oil carriers, satellites, off-shore drilling platforms and large computer installations supporting a national network). Where such difficulties exist expenditure is allocated to the state of the businesses' head office or, in the case of aircraft, is allocated across states in proportion to the likely use of the asset. 35 The Australian equivalents to International Financial Reporting Standards (AIFRS) were progressively implemented in Australia from 1 January 2005. As a result, a number of items in the financial accounts of Australian businesses were affected by changed definitions which in turn impacted upon both Income Statements and Balance Sheets. A range of ABS economic collections source data from financial accounts of businesses and use those data to derive economic statistics. There have been no changes in the associated economic definitions. 36 After monitoring data items in the immediate years following March quarter 2005 it was concluded that most affected published data series were impacted by data breaks but that the magnitude of such breaks could not be determined without imposing disproportionate load upon data providers to ABS surveys and other administratively collected data.

SEAS ON A L ADJUS T M E N T

37 The quarterly original actual new capital expenditure series in this publication are affected in varying degrees by seasonal influences. The seasonal adjustment process estimates and removes the effects of normal seasonal variations from the original series so that the effects of other influences can be more easily recognised.

30

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E X P L A N A T O R Y N O T E S continued

SEAS ON A L ADJUS T M E N T continued

38 In the seasonal adjustment process, account has been taken of normal seasonal factors (e.g. increase in June quarter capital expenditure due to the impending end of the financial year) to produce the seasonally adjusted estimates. Particular care should be taken in interpreting quarterly movements in the seasonally adjusted estimates because seasonal adjustment does not remove the effect of irregular or non-seasonal influences (e.g. change in interest rates) and reflects the sampling and other errors to which the original estimates are subject. 39 The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling. The Survey of Private New Capital Expenditure uses ARIMA modelling where appropriate for individual time series. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process. The ARIMA model is reassessed each year as part of the annual reanalysis of the seasonal adjustment parameters. Following the most recent annual reanalysis, 80% of eligible series use ARIMA modelling. For more information on the details of ARIMA modelling see Feature article: Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions in the October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no. 1350.0). 40 Seasonally adjusted estimates by asset type for Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory are not separately available because of the high sampling variability associated with them. They are included in totals for Australia and while a combined residual can be derived, the measure should not be considered reliable.

TREN D ESTI M A T E S

41 The trend estimates are derived by applying a 7-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted estimates. The 7-term Henderson moving average is symmetric, but as the end of a time series is approached, asymmetric forms of the moving average are applied. The asymmetric moving average has been tailored to suit the particular characteristics of individual series and enable trend estimates for recent quarters to be produced. Estimates of the trend will be improved at the current end of the time series as additional observations become available. This improvement is due to the application of different asymmetric moving averages for the most recent three quarters. As a result of the improvement, revisions to the trend estimates will generally be observed for the most recent three quarters. 42 There may also be revisions because of changes in the original estimates. As a result of these revisions, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates will also be revised. For further information, see Information Paper: A Guide to Interpreting Time Series Monitoring Trend, An Overview (cat. no. 1349.0) or contact the Assistant Director, Time Series Analysis on Canberra (02) 6252 6345 or email <time.series.analysis@abs.gov.au>.

DES C R I P T I O N OF TER M S

43

A description of the terms used in this publication is given below:

44 New capital expenditure refers to the acquisition of new tangible assets either on own account or under a finance lease and includes major improvements, alterations and additions. In general, this is expenditure charged to fixed tangible assets accounts excluding expenditure on second hand assets unless these are imported for the first time.

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31

E X P L A N A T O R Y N O T E S continued

45
!

!

Some estimates are dissected by type of asset: Buildings and structures: Includes industrial and commercial buildings, houses, flats, home units, water and sewerage installations, lifts, heating, ventilating and similar equipment forming an integral part of buildings and structures, land development and construction site development, roads, bridges, wharves, harbours, railway lines, pipelines, power and telephone lines. Also includes mine development (e.g. construction of shafts in underground mines, preparation of mining and quarrying sites for open cut extraction and other developmental operations primarily for commencing or extending production). Excludes purchases of land, previously occupied buildings and speculatively built projects intended for sale before occupation: Equipment, plant and machinery: Includes plant, machinery, vehicles, electrical apparatus, office equipment, furniture, fixtures and fittings not forming an integral part of buildings, durable containers, special tooling, etc. Also includes goods imported for the first time whether previously used outside Australia or not.

COMP A R I S O N WITH NATI O N A L ACC O U N T S AND OTH E R ABS STATIST I CS

46 The statistics for new capital expenditure shown in this publication differ from estimates of private gross fixed capital expenditure shown in the Australian National Accounts for the following reasons: ! National Accounts estimates incorporate data from other sources as well as information from the new capital expenditure survey. For example, annual estimates for capital expenditure on 'machinery and equipment' are based on the ABS' annual Economic Activity Survey combined with data from the Australian Taxation Office. Quarterly estimates are interpolated between and extrapolated from the annual estimates using a variety of indicators including this survey. The ABS's quarterly Building Activity Survey and Engineering Construction Survey are the main sources for estimating the National Accounts dwellings and other buildings and structures items. ! National Accounts estimates include capital expenditure by all private businesses including units classified to agriculture, forestry and fishing, education, and health and community services industries and capital expenditure on dwellings by households. Data for these sectors are excluded from this publication. ! National Accounts estimates include the value of work done on speculative construction projects as the work is put into place. The statistics in this publication, however, include full value of the speculative projects as new capital expenditure of the purchases (if in scope), when the project is sold. ! National accounts estimates of gross fixed capital formation relate to acquisitions less disposals of new or existing fixed assets, whereas the survey figures are acquisitions of new fixed tangible assets only. 47 For a more detailed explanation of the concepts and methods used in compiling the National Accounts estimates see Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods (cat. no. 5216.0). 48 The estimates of capital expenditure on buildings and other structures will differ with estimates of Construction activity published in Construction Work Done, Australia, Preliminary (cat. no. 8755.0). The latter publication presents estimates of building and engineering construction work collected by the Building Activity Survey and the Engineering Construction Survey. Estimates of construction activity are based on the value of actual work done during the quarter of individual building or construction jobs by builders, and do not necessarily equate to capitalisation of this work by the builders' eventual clients. Estimates of capital expenditure in this publication are based on data reported by businesses (that is, the builders' clients) from their financial or management accounts for purchases of buildings and structures.

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E X P L A N A T O R Y N O T E S continued

REL A T E D PUB L I C A T I O N S

49
!

!

! !

! ! ! ! ! !

Users may also wish to refer the following publications: Information Paper: Changes to Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure statistics, September 2009 (cat. no. 5625.0.55.001) Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product (cat. no. 5206.0) Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods (cat. no. 5216.0) Directory of Capital Expenditure Data Sources and Related Statistics (cat. no. 5653.0) Building Activity, Australia (cat. no. 8752.0) Business Indicators, Australia (cat. no. 5676.0) Business Operations and Industry Performance, Australia (cat. no. 8140.0) Construction Work Done, Australia (cat no 8755.0) Engineering Construction Activity, Australia (cat. no. 8762.0) Information Paper: Australian National Accounts, Introduction of Chain Volume and Price Indexes (cat. no. 5248.0)

50 Current publications and other products released by the ABS are available from the Statistics View. The ABS also issues a daily Release Advice on the web site which details products to be released in the week ahead.
ABS DAT A AVA I L A B L E ON REQUES T

51 In addition to the data contained in this publication, more detailed industry and state information may be made available on request, the cost for such a service being dependent upon the amount of data requested. For example, data are generally available at the ANZSIC subdivision (2 digit) level. 52 The ABS website contains most of the data included in this publication but with a longer time series. In addition to the series in this publication, data for Manufacturing Subdivisions and State by Industry data are also available. 53 ABS publications draw extensively on information provided freely by individuals, businesses, governments and other organisations. Their continued cooperation is very much appreciated; without it, the wide range of statistics published by the ABS would not be available. Information received by the ABS is treated in strict confidence as required by the Census and Statistics Act 1905.

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AP P E N D I X SAMPL I N G ERRO RS

LEVE L ESTIM A T E S
INTR ODU C TI ON

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.
EXA M P L E OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate. Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $44,127m and the calculated standard error in this case is $610m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $44,127m. For instance, the standard error of $610m indicates that: ! There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $43,517m to $44,737m (44,127m ± $610m) ! There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $42,907m to $45,347m (44,127m ± $1,220m) The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population. The following table shows the standard errors for December Quarter 2012 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
$m

Equipment, Plant and Machinery
$m

Total
$m

Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transport, Postal and Warehousing Information Media and Telecommunications Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Other Selected Services
Total

457 42 38 21 41 6 74 1 27 99 44 63 483 85 53 450 57 148 44 2 1 483

58 62 7 234 67 54 123 23 22 154 97 102 365 170 111 198 48 193 39 10 32 365

458 87 38 232 87 54 152 23 35 194 107 128 610 201 133 508 84 245 74 11 31 610

New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania Northern Territory Australian Capital Territory
Australia

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A P P E N D I X S A M P L I N G E R R O R S continued
MOVEM E N T ESTIM A T E S
EXA MP L E OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate. Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $40,284m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $44,127m. In this example the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $371m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $3,843m. For instance, the standard error of $371m indicates that: ! There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two quarter period falls within the range $3,472m to $4,214m ($3,843m ± $371m). ! There are approximately nineteen chances in twenty that the real movement falls within the range $3,101m to $4,585m ($3,843 ± $742m) The following table shows the standard errors for December Quarter 2012 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
$m

Equipment, Plant and Machinery
$m

Total
$m

Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transport, Postal and Warehousing Information Media and Telecommunications Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Other Selected Services
Total

71 37 18 54 36 38 83 4 25 170 44 75 229 172 97 79 63 80 48 5 5 229

100 72 6 208 65 52 110 21 25 116 130 100 321 169 113 169 62 166 58 15 29 321

126 95 18 209 79 65 136 22 39 199 131 135 371 222 156 187 88 177 92 17 28 371

New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania Northern Territory Australian Capital Territory
Australia

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