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How can we use the predictability of volatility to produce return predictions that let us generate alpha and reduce drawdown, as well as provide timing signals for asset allocation?

By Tony Cooper

(1x) (1+x) = 1x2

Suppose the market goes down by x and then the next day it goes up by x. For example, the market goes down by 5%, then up by 5%. The net result is that the market has gone to (1-0.05) times (1+0.05) = 0.9975, which is a net drop of 0.0025 (or 0.25%). This drop always occurs, because x2 is always positive and the sign in front is negative. So whenever the market has volatility, we lose money. We call this loss volatility drag. Sample Market Data Figure 1 (below) shows returns from the S&P 500 capital index since 1950.

hether or not you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, it is difficult to predict market returns (Ferson, Simin and Sarkissian, 2003), whereas market volatility is clearly forecastable (Poon and Granger, 2003). The purpose of this article* is to use the predictability of volatility to generate excess returns. For such predictions to be useful, volatility itself must be volatile. To introduce our key investment concept of volatility drag and to see how leverage works, we start with an example involving leveraged exchange traded funds (ETFs). Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds Leveraged ETFs are funds that aim to magnify the daily moves of an index. The magnifcation multiple is a known fixed constant. For example, if an ETF promises a return of 2 times the S&P 500 index, then, if the S&P 500 index goes up 1.2% in one day, the ETF will go up 2 x 1.2% = 2.4%. The daily leverage multiple does not translate to the same multiple when applied to annual returns of the ETFs or to compound returns. The formula for compound returns provides the key to our volatility strategies. Volatility Drag Daily volatility hurts the returns of leveraged ETFs due to the equality, as follows:

Compound Annual Percent Return

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 1

Daily Leverage

*This article is an abridged version of a paper that won the 2010 NAAIM Wagner Prize.

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The orange circles in Figure 1 show leverage rates 1, 2, 3 and 4. It can be seen that increasing leverage from zero to 4 increases the annualized return up to a limit. Then returns drop due to the increasing effect of volatility drag. Since the return is a multiple of leverage and the drag a multiple of the leverage squared, then eventually the drag overwhelms the extra return obtained through leverage. So there is a limit to the amount of leverage that can be used. The tradeoff between return acceleration and volatility drag and the management of the tradeoff is the basis for our volatility strategies. The Formula for the ETF Long-Term Return The formula for the long-term compound annual growth rate R of a leveraged ETF can be derived using a Taylor series expansion, and can be approximated by this formula: R = k 0.5k22/(1+k)

(1)

where k is the ETF leverage (not necessarily an integer or positive), is the mean daily return of the benchmark and is the daily volatility (i.e., standard deviation) of the benchmark daily return. If the volatility is zero, then R = k, so that the return of the ETF is k times the return of the benchmark. The 0.5k22/ (1+k) term is the volatility drag. Since k22 is always positive and since (1+k) is always close to 1, then the volatility drag is always positive. R is a quadratic function of k with a negative coefficient for the square term. That means we will always get the parabola shape shown in Figure 1 and we will always have a maximum for some value of k. Some algebra shows that the maximum is approximately (for small k) k = /2

ket has enough return to overcome volatility drag. It usually does. For most markets in recent times, the optimal leverage has been about two. But some markets and time frames will reward a leverage of up to three. No markets will reward a leverage of four. But using leveraged ETFs to enhance returns is ineffective for the following reasons: Leveraged ETFs do not generate alpha. Any leverage that multiplies return also multiplies volatility by the same multiple. So risk-adjusted returns are not enhanced. Nearing the peak of the parabolas from the left, we are adding leverage (and thus volatility) and not getting much extra compounded return for it. So we actually generate negative alpha. Leveraged ETFs run the risk of ruin i.e., losing all money invested. So to use leveraged ETFs effectively, we want to invest as close to the left as possible and to watch volatility closely to avoid straying over to the right. This is where the volatility of volatility comes into play. The Volatility of Volatility and in Equation (1) are assumed to be constant values over the lifetime of the ETF. In reality, they are not constant but vary over time. So it seems likely that the optimal value of k is time varying also. Can we predict and well enough to estimate the optimal value of k for the immediate future? The answer is that we cannot easily predict . That leaves . EGARCH(1, 1) Volatility Forecasting , the daily volatility, is a random variable that can vary from day to day. It is defined to be the instantaneous standard deviation of price fluctuations. Measuring volatility is not as straightforward as measuring price. It requires measuring price changes over time, but during the time interval measured, the volatility itself may change. For example, if only daily closing prices are observable, then, to get a reasonable measure of standard deviation, 10 prices over 10 days need to be observed. But over those 10 days, the volatility itself is sure to have changed. So instantaneous volatility is unobservable. We shall use the EGARCH(1, 1) model for volatility forecasting, because it is a relatively standard choice and because Poon and Granger (2003) report studies where it outperforms other methods, particularly when used on market indexes. (It is out-

side the scope of this expository article to find the best method for our purposes, so an indicative method will suffice.) A feature of EGARCH is that the estimates of volatility vary over time. Let us define the volatility of volatility (vovo for short) as the standard deviation of the daily volatilities t for t = 1, . . . ,n, where n represents the number of days of observation. Costs of Volatility of Volatility In traditional asset allocation, vovo has a cost. As an example, consider a balanced-fund manager who uses, say, bonds to reduce the volatility of a fund that contains equities, and who perhaps may use a 60-40 equities-bonds mix. The traditional way of managing these investments is to look at the long term historical volatility of the component asset classes to decide the proportions to invest in. Usually, no consideration is given to the vovo of the asset classes and no constant volatility target is set. So the investor or manager with a static or reasonably constant 60-40 mix has to suffer the varying volatility of the markets sometimes sleeping well at night, occasionally not. In order to ensure that the worst volatility is minimized, the asset allocation will have erred on the side of conservative. This will have cost returns. The larger the vovo, the more conservative the asset allocation will have to be, and therefore the more the cost to returns. There is a further cost of vovo in that of two portfolios with the same average mean and same average volatility, the one with the higher vovo will have a higher expected maximum drawdown. Volatility of Volatility Strategies We now create three portfolio strategies that use volatility prediction and the /2 formula in a short-term, look-ahead manner. The strategies are (1) the constant volatility strategy (CVS); (2) the optimal volatility strategy (OVS); and (3) the optimal volatility plus mean strategy (OVPMS). We also calculate a mean only strategy (MOS) not for investment, but as a benchmark for the the OVPMS strategy. In addition, we construct a data-snooping version of OVPMS called OVPMS+. The purpose of this version is to give an indication of how well a calibrated version of OVPMS would have done. Every day, just before the close of trading, we take the closing price for the day and put it into our EGARCH estimator to estimate our volatility for the next day. We call our estimate

of the ith days volatility si, and then calculate our leverage ki for the ith day using our leverage calculation formula. Subsequently, just on the closing bell, we execute trades to bring our portfolio to leverage ki so that it begins the next day at this level of leverage. In actual practice, we would likely be using intra-day prices for estimates of the volatility rather than end-of-day prices, since they can provide better predictions (Poon and Granger, 2003).

We would likely be using intra-day prices for estimates of the volatility rather than end-of-day prices.

Leveraged ETFs and the Chance of Ruin The strategies can be implemented as overlays on existing portfolios or as investments in their own right. They can be implemented by using combinations of leveraged ETFs, provided that suitable ETFs exist. For example, suppose that leverage of 2.4 is required. This can be achieved by investing 0.6 of the asset into a 2x leveraged ETF and 0.4 into a 3x leveraged ETF. An ETF with leverage k will drop to zero if the market drops by 1/k. The 1987 crash would have ruined any 5x leveraged ETF. Fortunately, all the strategies reduce leverage when volatility is high, so this makes the chances of ruin smaller. Our three strategies differ in the formula used to derive the daily values of the ki. The Constant Volatility Strategy (CVS) This strategy sets the leverage to be ki = c/si for some constant c. This strategy is not optimal in that it uses si in the denominator rather than s2. But it has a simplicity and appeal that we i find irresistible. If tomorrow is predicted to be a high volatility day, then it lowers the leverage for that day in proportion to the predicted volatility. This means that it is aiming for a constant volatility of c every day. This has three useful implications for financial planning and risk management: (1) it provides a target risk level that can be sold as a number (and put into a prospectus); (2) it reduces the vovo experienced by the strategy, which in turn reduces

(2)

This formula for the optimum leverage occurs in the Kelly Criterion (Thorp, 2006) and Mertons Portfolio Problem (Merton, 1969). Its appearance here as the result of an optimization is no surprise. Note that leveraged ETFs have (small) management fees and a slight drag due to tracking error. We ignore these to simplify this expository article. Leveraged ETFs Alpha Leveraged ETFs can be held long term, provided the mar-

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the costs of vovo, such as over-conservatism and higher drawdowns; and (3) it generates alpha. The Optimal Volatility Strategy (OVS) This strategy sets the leverage to be ki = c/si2for some constant c. This is not targeting constant volatility, but rather optimal leverage.

Normalised Actual Returns vs Forecast Volatility Normalised Actual Returns

0.3 0.2 0.1 0

but omit that analysis here. Mean Variance Risk Performance Figure 3 (right-hand chart is a zoomed-in version) shows the returns of the strategies versus the annualized daily standard deviation for the S&P 500 from 1950 to 2009.

and are given in Table 1. All the strategies beat the index.

Index S&P500 Annual Return 0.0699 CVS Return 0.1012 OVS Return 0.1209 MOS Return 0.0950 OVPMS Return 0.1260 OVPMS+ Return 0.1292

3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 0

The Mean Only Strategy (MOS) This strategy sets the leverage to ki = cm(si) for some constant c and some function m(s), which is described below. We are not interested in the MOS strategy in its own right just as a means of looking at the effect of the contribution in the expression /2. The Optimal Volatility PlusMean Strategy (OVPMS, OVPMS+) This strategy sets the leverage to be ki = cm(si)/si2 for some constant c and some function m(s). Here, we have some estimate of the mean return as a function of volatility only. Any other prediction is outside the scope of this volatility article. The difference between OVPMS and OVPMS+ is that the former only uses past data to estimate the function m(s) and is updated every day. OVPMS+ uses only one estimate of m(s), and that is calculated using data-snooping from the entire date range. The reason for doing this is to give us an idea of the performance of the strategy if accurately calibrated from the start. Estimating Return as a Function of Volatility For OVPMS, we require an estimate of market return as a function of our prediction of market volatility. The left hand chart of Figure 2 (above, right) shows for the S&P 500 index, from 1950 to 2009, a plot of the market return versus our predicted EGARCH(1, 1) values for 14,823 days. The daily returns di are normalized (for statistical reasons) by dividing by the predicted volatility. The daily predicted volatility is annualized by multiplying by 252.

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0.3

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Forecast Volatility

Forecast Volatility

S&P 500: 1950 to 2009 S&P 500: 1950 to 2009

-0.1 0.4

-0.2

0.1

Figure 4 (below) shows for the strategies CVS 1x and OVS 1x the daily leverages used. (The charts for the OVPMS strategies are slightly higher than those for OVS and are omitted for brevity.)

At first glance, no obvious relationship between return and volatility can be seen in Figure 2. But lets now zoom in on the chart on the right. We have divided the interval of forecast volatility into 20 equally spaced bins and have calculated the mean normalized return for each bin. These means are plotted in cyan along with two standard deviation error bars, and we see convincing evidence that returns decrease with increasing volatility. In an effort to get an idea of the relationship between returns and volatility amongst all the noise, we apply some smoothing techniques. The gold line is the overall mean. The black line is an application of Friedman and Stuetzles (1982) supersmoother, which uses local linear fits. This smooths the data without imposing any constraints onto it other than smoothness, so it is the most truthful smooth. But it does not give us a clean functional form, and we therefore try some parametric functions. The green line is a quadratic fit. This imposes a turning point onto the relationship and doesnt look realistic. Instead, the red line is a robust fit of a power function f(s) = asb. This may not be realistic, but we have to start somewhere and the final portfolio may not be sensitive to the constraints anyway. So we use the power function. For the S&P 500, we estimate b to be -1.76 with a 95% confidence interval of -2.63 to -0.90. The power function fit to the scaled returns is m/s = asb, so our OVPMS strategy becomes ki = cm(si )/si2= casib-1and we drop the a by absorbing it into the constant c. Thus, ki = csib-1 where for OVPMS we update our estimate of b daily and for OVPMS+ we use a single estimate for the whole period. All the vovo strategies are evaluated in a return-risk framework. We have also analyzed them in a drawdown framework,

0.05

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 8 6

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The curves are traced out as a function of increasing volatility by increasing the constant scaling factor c. The vertical grey line is the mean volatility of the S&P 500 index over the time period. For each strategy, two versions are shown: the solid line is that strategy that invests in the risk-free return (we use a nominal rate of 4%) for the balance of any assets not invested in the market when the leverage is less than one. The dotted line assumes that when leverage is less than one, any un-invested funds return zero. The black curve is a leveraged investment in the index itself, as would be produced by a leveraged ETF without fees. The black circles show integer values for the leverage. So the black circle that intersects the grey vertical line is a 1x leveraged ETF. The next black circle is 2x, etc. The effect of volatility drag is evident on all the strategies, including the leveraged ETFs. All the curves have a peak and then drop down to a return of -1. The sharp dropoff down to -1 is a result of the 1987 crash, where the S&P 500 had a return of -20%. Any strategy having a leverage of five or more lost all their assets on that day. We choose the value of c that gives the strategy the same volatility as the index volatility. We call this the 1x instance of the strategy. The strategy returns can be read off the chart

4 2 0 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Leverage Year

4 2 0 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Year

We see that only CVS keeps maximum leverage down below three most of the time. The other strategies concern us a little because we start getting nervous when volatility exceeds three, because of the encroaching risk of ruin. The OVPMS+ strategy actually gets leverage as high as 12.5 (not shown), which must surely qualify as dangerous because an 8% drop in the market would ruin the investment. The grey vertical line shows the 1987 crash, and we can easily see that the strategies anticipated the event by reducing leverage. Figure 5 (next page) shows, on a log scale, the equity curve for the strategies and the equity curves for the S&P 500 at 1x, 2x, 3x, 4x. The strategies do not do as well at times as the 3x and 4x leveraged ETFs, but they all have volatility 1x (whereas the ETFs have volatility 3x and 4x). This provides compelling evidence that the strategies have worked very well in the past. Whether they will continue to do so in the future is an open question.

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Strategy CVS OVS MOS OVPMS OVPMS+ Leverage, October 19, 1987 0.455 0.152 0.568 0.034 0.058

Price

All the strategies anticipated the crash and had a greatly reduced exposure to it, thereby gaining overall (relative to the market) from the crash. But the crash was a one-time-only event and future crashes may not be preceded by increased volatility. The Long-Only Maximum Leverage 1 Portfolio Our vovo strategies had no limit to the amount of leverage applied, but we need to look at how well they perform when they are restricted to a maximum leverage of one. Figure 7 shows the results for the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1984 to 2009.

Year

Constant Volatility of CVS How good is the constant volatility of CVS? Since investor perception of volatility comes from experience of recent volatility, let us estimate the volatility of CVS using 63-day historical volatility. This is plotted in Figure 6 (see below) with the S&P 500 index 63-day volatility in the background. A two standard deviation horizontal line is drawn for each series. Both series have the same mean level of volatility (shown as a grey horizontal line), but CVS has less vovo.

Parting Thoughts Returns are not easily predictable, but volatility is. We have identified three sources of alpha from the volatility predictability: the extra overall leverage allowed by the apportionment of leverage without increasing overall portfolio volatility; the relationship between returns and volatility, and the use of extra leverage when returns are higher; and the deleveraging prior to the 1987 crash. We have introduced three simple intuitive investment strategies that use these sources to generate alpha. They are called CVS, OVS and OVPMS. All three strategies generate excess returns. If they are restricted to leverage no more than one, then they greatly reduce the volatility of a portfolio without significantly reducing returns. And all three strategies reduce the volatility of volatility of the portfolio, which allows the portfolio manager to deliberately seek more volatility than normal and to reduce maximum drawdown for the same level of volatility. Of the three strategies, we prefer CVS because (1) it al-

lows us to seek a specified constant target volatility that can be put into a prospectus; (2) it usually has leverage less than three, and also has the least maximum leverage; and (3) it has smaller volatility extremes.

References Ferson, Wayne, Timothy Simin and Sergei Sarkissian. Is Stock Return Predictability Spurious? Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 1, 2003, pgs. 10-19. Merton, Robert C. Lifetime Portfolio Selection Under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1969, pgs. 51, 247-257. Poon, S.H., and C.W.J. Granger. Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review, Journal of Economic Literature, 2003, pgs. 41, 478-539. Thorp, E.O. The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting and the Stock Market, Handbook of Asset and Liability Management, Volume A: Theory and Methodology A, 2006. Tony Cooper is the founder of quantitative research consultancy Double-Digit Numerics. In 2010, he won the NAAIM Wagner award for advances in investment management. He can be reached at tonyc@ddnum.com.

Dow Jones 30, 1984 to 2009, Maximum Leverage One

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S&P 500: 1950 to 2009 63-Day Historical Volatility with Mean and 2 Vovo Limits

Historical Volatility

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0 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

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1987 Crash Protection Table 2 (above, right) shows the leverage that the strategies determined the day before the crash could have been used, successfully, the day of the crash.

This chart shows that we can approximately halve the annualized volatility down to about 0.1, while only slightly increasing returns. So the effect of the strategies on the traditional portfolio is likely to be a reduction in volatility rather than an increase in returns.

Spotfire Analytics provides a flexible and intuitive platform for all your risk management needs Our platform is widely used globally to solve business challenges in banking, insurance, and asset management sectors With Spotfire Analytics, you can go beyond spreadsheets, and empower the analyst to easily harness the power of models without resorting to programming and technical tasks Spotfire Analytics helps anyone in the enterprise answer critical what-if questions that impact the business. Let our platform provide the foundation to build stress testing, risk assessment, and scenario analysis applications

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To learn more, please visit: http://spotfire.tibco.com/spotfire-for-you/by-industry/financial-services/financial-analytics.aspx Or contact: Venkat Mullur, Senior Director (Industry Solutions), TIBCO-Spotfire vmullur@tibco.com A U G U S T 2 0 1 0 RISK PROFESSIONAL www.garp.com

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